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MAY 2020 Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South Asia BY AMBASSADOR HUSAIN HAQQANI DIRECTOR FOR SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA, HUDSON INSTITUTE DR. APARNA PANDE DIRECTOR, INITIATIVE ON THE FUTURE OF INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA, HUDSON INSTITUTE © 2020 Hudson Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. For more information about obtaining additional copies of this or other Hudson Institute publications, please visit Hudson’s website, www.hudson.org ABOUT HUDSON INSTITUTE Hudson Institute is a research organization promoting American leadership and global engagement for a secure, free, and prosperous future. Founded in 1961 by strategist Herman Kahn, Hudson Institute challenges conventional thinking and helps manage strategic transitions to the future through interdisciplinary studies in defense, international relations, economics, health care, technology, culture, and law. Hudson seeks to guide public policy makers and global leaders in government and business through a vigorous program of publications, conferences, policy briefings and recommendations. Visit www.hudson.org for more information. Hudson Institute 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Fourth Floor Washington, D.C. 20004 +1.202.974.2400 [email protected] www.hudson.org Cover: An Indian volunteer wearing a protective mask and face shield stands guard on a road, as India remains under an extended lockdown due to COVID-19 on May 6, 2020 in New Delhi, India. (Photo by Yawar Nazir/Getty Images) MAY 2020 Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South Asia BY AMBASSADOR HUSAIN HAQQANI DIRECTOR FOR SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA, HUDSON INSTITUTE DR. APARNA PANDE DIRECTOR, INITIATIVE ON THE FUTURE OF INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA, HUDSON INSTITUTE AUTHOR Ambassador Husain Haqqani Dr. Aparna Pande Ambassador Husain Haqqani is a senior fellow and director Aparna Pande is a research fellow and the director of Hudson for South and Central Asia at Hudson Institute. He served as Institute’s Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia. She Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 2011 wrote her PhD dissertation on Pakistan’s foreign policy. Her and is widely credited with managing a difficult partnership major field of interest is South Asia with a special focus on India, during a critical phase in the global war on terrorism. Amb. Pakistan, Afghanistan, Foreign and Security Policy. Haqqani’s distinguished career in government includes serving as an advisor to four Pakistani Prime Ministers: Yusuf Raza Dr. Pande is the author of Explaining Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Gilani, Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, and Ghulam Mustafa Escaping India (Routledge, 2011), From Chanakya to Modi: Jatoi. He also served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Sri Lanka Evolution of India’s Foreign Policy (Harper Collins India, 2017) from 1992 to 1993. and edited Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Pakistan (Routledge, 2017). Amb. Haqqani is the author of four books: Pakistan Between Mosque and Military (Carnegie, 2005), Magnificent A 1993 graduate of Delhi University, Aparna holds a Master of Delusions: Pakistan, the United States and an Epic History of Arts in History from St. Stephens College at Delhi University and Misunderstanding (Public Affairs, 2013), India vs Pakistan: Why a Master of Philosophy in International Relations from Jawaharlal Can’t We Just Be Friends? (Juggernaut, 2016) and Reimagining Nehru University. Aparna Pande received a Doctorate in Political Pakistan: Transforming a Dysfunctional Nuclear State (Harper Science from Boston University in 2010. Collins, 2018). He is also the co-editor of Hudson’s journal, Current Trends in Islamist Ideology. Amb. Haqqani was formerly director of the Center of International Relations, and a professor of the practice of international relations at Boston University. Amb. Haqqani received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in international relations from the University of Karachi. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 6 India 9 Pakistan 14 Afghanistan 17 Bangladesh 20 Nepal 23 Sri Lanka 26 Conclusion 29 CRISIS FROM KOLKATA TO KABUL: COVID-19’S IMPACT ON SOUTH ASIA INTRODUCTION The world’s most populous region, South Asia, with almost It may be that India, Pakistan, and other countries in South Asia 1.9 billion people living in eight countries, has so far had have a low number of confirmed cases because the region is fewer reported infections and fatalities per capita from the behind on testing, tracing, and isolating. Although inadequate novel coronavirus than projected in early models. However, testing is a problem in other parts of the world, too, it serves as the region is unlikely to escape the widespread disruption and an excuse for South Asia’s governments to keep the publicly damage felt across the globe, and its worst health-care crisis stated numbers in check. may be yet to come. Governments share figures only for those who have been In South Asia, as in other regions, the COVID-19 pandemic is tested or otherwise accounted for in woefully ill-equipped testing the capacities of states to provide security and effective healthcare and to maintain essential services. It is also having Photo Caption: Medical staff light candles for World Nurses Day at an impact on fragile democratic institutions and societal bonds, the Sawai Man Singh Hospital during India’s nation-wide lockdown in in addition to putting considerable strains on the economy. Jaipur on May 12, 2020. (Vishal Bhatnagar/NurPhoto via Getty Images) 6 | HUDSON INSTITUTE public-health systems. There may be other patients who are the future. India could emerge ahead in the contest with China not being counted, inadvertently or in some cases, deliberately. with the right mix of policies. Government-mandated lockdowns, first introduced in Bangladesh and India and subsequently adopted across South India has opted for a regional response to the COVID-19 crisis Asia, have been somewhat successful, but the extent of the and offered technical assistance and medical equipment to region’s exposure to COVID-19 is still not fully known. its neighbors, some of whom remain wary of China. Beijing’s lack of transparency at the outset, when the coronavirus first India and its neighbors have many people under the poverty appeared in Wuhan, is also unlikely to enhance confidence in line, insufficient investment in social capital, especially Chinese leadership. China would still have the advantage of its healthcare, and large migrant labor forces. Even if the numbers larger foreign currency reserves and the ability to offer loans and of fatalities and confirmed cases remains low, the International investment. This can be mitigated through closer collaboration Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that the pandemic will have between India, the United States, and other democracies. a devastating impact on South Asia’s economies. The country worst hit by COVID-19 in South Asia is China’s The IMF projects that India’s economy, which until recently was most dependable ally, Pakistan, the second-largest country in expected to contribute to global growth, will experience further the region. A fragile state with a large military, a strong jihadi slowdown.1 According to the IMF, Nepal, one of the smaller terrorist presence, and nuclear weapons capability, Pakistan’s South Asian economies, will become the fastest-growing many fault lines are likely to be exacerbated by the pandemic economy in the region with 2.5 percent growth, followed by and the economic downturn in its aftermath. The slow and Bangladesh with 2 percent, then India with 1.9 percent. fumbling response of Pakistan’s civilian government has already positioned the military to step in and take charge once again, Sri Lanka is expected to have negative growth, with its economy diminishing Pakistan’s civilian democratic facade. This will only shrinking by half a percent. Pakistan is likely to be the worst hit, strengthen China’s grip on Islamabad. with negative economic growth of 1.5 percent. Pakistan’s response to the coronavirus resembles that of India, the largest country in the region, would ideally be suited Sri Lanka, another country heavily indebted to China. Both to playing a major role in rebuilding its neighborhood because Pakistan and Sri Lanka focused their early comments on of its central location and large economy. It would be in the praising Beijing. Pakistan even helped Chinese propaganda by U.S. interest to encourage this outcome. India, however, would spreading conspiracy theories claiming that the virus originated simultaneously be dealing with a slowing economy, rising with British or US biological warfare preparations. social tensions, divisive politics, and insufficient investment in healthcare. Although Pakistan’s precarious economic situation has led it to seek assistance from the IMF, it will likely not take long for it There is a geopolitical reason, too, for the United States and to turn to China for help, just as Sri Lanka has done. Western other democracies to encourage Indian regional leadership in governments could continue to try to aid Pakistan, hoping to post-pandemic rehabilitation. China has been expanding its keep it out of China’s stranglehold, but that would be the pursuit influence in South Asia and could step in more aggressively to of sunk cost. Pakistan’s embrace of China is already tight; its assist weakened governments with a view to controlling them in military leadership’s antipathy to India is unlikely to help reorient CRISIS FROM KOLKATA TO KABUL: COVID-19’S IMPACT ON SOUTH ASIA Islamabad towards the West any time soon. Indian and Pakistani what its generals see as permanent conflict with India. In the troops have exchanged fire along the Line of Control (LOC) in aftermath of the ravages of the coronavirus, China-Pakistan Kashmir, following intelligence reports that Pakistan might be relations can be expected to remain close, setting the stage increasing terrorist infiltration into Indian-controlled territory. for a new round of competition between China and India for regional pre-eminence.

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