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Unionist Concerns & Fears of a United Ireland

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Unionist Concerns & Fears of a United Ireland The Need to Protect the Peace Process & Build a Vision for a Shared Island & A United People Senator Mark Daly Based on the recommendation of the Report by the Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement ‘Brexit & The Future of Ireland Uniting Ireland & Its People In Peace and Prosperity’ Based on writings and contributions, including those by: Michael Nesbitt - Ulster Unionist Party Leader (2012-2017) Reverend Kyle Paisley Trevor Ringland – Irish International Rugby Player and Co-Chair of the Northern Ireland Conservatives Political Party (2013-2014) Reverend Norman Hamilton – Moderator of the Presbyterian Church in Ireland 2010-11 Unionist Political Representative Raymond McCord - Victims’ Rights Activist Anonymous Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist (PUL) Community member living in Greater Belfast Dr James Wilson – Served in the British Army during the Troubles Conducted Focus Groups with the Independent Orange Order, Loyalist Flute Band, UDR/Irish Regiment Veterans, and the East Belfast Mission at the request of Senator Mark Daly Unionist Fears & Concerns of a United Ireland, The Need to Protect the Peace Process & Build a Vision for a Shared Island & A United People Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Executive Summary 3.0 Identifying Unionist Fears and Concerns of a United Ireland 4.0 Submissions 4.1 Michael Nesbitt -- Ulster Unionist Party Leader (2012-2017) 4.2 Reverend Kyle Paisley 4.3 Trevor Ringland – Irish International Rugby Player and Co-Chair of the Northern Ireland Conservatives Political Party 2013-2014 4.4 The Very Reverend Dr Norman Hamilton -- Moderator of the Presbyterian Church in Ireland 2010-2011 4.5 Unionist Political Representative 4.6 Anonymous Protestant/ Unionist/ Loyalist (PUL) community member living in Greater Belfast 4.7 Raymond McCord - Victims’ Rights Activist 4.8 Dr James Wilson - Served in the British Army during the Troubles, conducted Focus Groups at the request of Senator Mark Daly with; The Independent Orange Order, Loyalist Flute Band, UDR/Irish Regiment Veterans East Belfast Mission 5.0 Conclusions 6.0 Recommendations Appendices Appendix 1: ‘Flagging it Up’ by Dr James Wilson Appendix 2: Brexit & the Future of Ireland- Uniting Ireland & its people in peace & prosperity Section 4 : Brexit & the future of Ireland Appendix 3: Northern Ireland Returning to Violence as a Result of a Hard Border due to Brexit or a Rushed Border Poll: Risks for Youth Appendix 4: Submission by Deputy Seán Fleming and Senator Mark Daly to the 2019 Draft National Risk Assessment “National Risk Assessment 2019 Void due to Omission of Possible/Probable Referendum on a New Agreed Ireland” 2 Unionist Fears & Concerns of a United Ireland, The Need to Protect the Peace Process & Build a Vision for a Shared Island & A United People 1.0 Introduction In 2017, I was honoured to be appointed Rapporteur for the first report in the history of the State, by a Dáil or Seanad Committee, on achieving a United Ireland. The 1,232 page report, ‘Brexit & The Future of Ireland: Uniting Ireland & It’s People in Peace & Prosperity’, was adopted unanimously by the Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. The report made 17 recommendations, one of which states: “Fears and concerns of the Unionist community need to be examined, understood and addressed comprehensively by all stakeholders in advance of any referendum.” This recommendation is the basis for this research paper. The majority of the research compiled on unionist fears and concerns of a United Ireland were individual submissions given to me following my request to each contributor. I also commissioned Dr James Wilson, who served in the British Army during the Troubles, to carry out primary research. An undertaking was given to the participants who requested it, that their identities would be protected, and that their views would be included in the report in full. While it is acknowledged that the sample sizes of the groups in Dr Wilson’s research are small, their views give an indication and important insight into the feelings, thoughts, and fears and concerns of their peer groups and communities. I am grateful to all participants for taking the time to make their contributions to this research. The urgency to address the issues in the submissions and research is underlined by the growing realisation that a plebiscite on a United Ireland as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement is possible/probable at some stage and could occur in the short to medium rather than the longer term. However, any possible referendum must not happen as a knee jerk political action. The Brexit referendum has taught us an important lesson: you do not hold a referendum until every possible outcome has been examined and prepared for, where possible. This referendum particularly cannot be rushed or used for political gain; the hard won peace we all enjoy on this island is at stake. The holding of a referendum without proper preparation and engagement, particularly with the unionist community, would lead to the fulfilment of the warning “policy neglect seldom goes unpunished”.1 Lady Sylvia Hermon, Independent Unionist MP for North Down and widow of the former Chief Constable of the RUC, said in an interview with the BBC, “I am worried about the consequences of Brexit. In my lifetime I never thought that I would see a Border poll and I am now convinced that I probably will see a Border poll.”2 She is right when she said in the same interview, “Brexit has and will change everything.”3 Former Northern Ireland First Minister Peter Robinson believes the North should prepare for the possibility of a United Ireland. Speaking at the MacGill Summer School in Glenties, Co Donegal, he said he does not think Northern Ireland will want to leave the United Kingdom, but that is no reason it shouldn’t prepare for the eventuality: 1 John Bradley, ‘Towards an All-Island Economy’, (2016) < http://www.irish- association.org/papers/john_bradley.asp> accessed 1 May 2019. 2 Gareth Gordon, ‘Unionist MP Lady Sylvia Hermon expects to see border poll’, (2018) < https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43995962> accessed 1 May 2019. 3 Ibid. 3 Unionist Fears & Concerns of a United Ireland, The Need to Protect the Peace Process & Build a Vision for a Shared Island & A United People “I don’t expect my own house to burn down but I still insure it because it could happen,” he said.4 The former leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) said he would accept the results of a border poll which led to Northern Ireland joining the Republic. “As soon as that decision is taken every democrat will have to accept that decision,” he said in response to a question from the audience.5 Significantly, he also compared moving towards that scenario without preparation to the decision to leave the EU. “I don’t believe Northern Ireland will want to leave the United Kingdom, but if it does happen we would be in a terrible fix because we would be in the same situation as leaving the EU where nothing was negotiated or decided about what was going to happen after.”6 Mr Robinson said he believed the unionist community in general would also accept the results of a referendum on unification but would want some “protections,” similar to those the nationalist community currently enjoys in the North. The Times Newspaper reported of a confrontation between the British Prime Minister Theresa May and the Brexiteer MP Jacob Rees-Mogg during briefings on Monday the 15TH of May 2018. Prime Minister May is reported to have said she is not confident of certain victory in an Irish border poll. "I would not be as confident as you. That’s not a risk I’m prepared to take. We cannot be confident on the politics of that situation, on how it plays out."7 The Belfast Telegraph reported that Sophie Long, the former communications officer of the Progressive Unionist Party, the political wing of the Ulster Volunteer Force, said unionists should “prepare for the possibility of a United Ireland”.8 Many believe the next census in 2021 will show what would be considered a unionist minority and it is estimated by some that it will convert into a voting majority for nationalists in the next decade. In October 2018, for the first time ever, an opinion poll in Northern Ireland showed that a majority of 56% would vote for a United Ireland in the event of a hard Brexit & a hard border9. In light of this evidence and statements, not least from members of the Unionist communities, a referendum on a United Ireland is possible within a decade. It is concerning that there does not seem to be the same realisation of this fact among the Government in the Republic. The submission to the 2019 draft National Risk Assessment by Deputy Sean Fleming, Chair of the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee and I, “National Risk Assessment 2019 Void due to Omission of Possible/Probable Referendum on a New Agreed Ireland” is included in the appendix and outlines the reticence of the Government to prepare for the possible/probable referendum on a New Agreed Ireland. However, a United Ireland that just replaces one system of majoritarianism with another will not achieve the aim of protecting the peace process and building a vision for a shared island and a united people. I would like to thank all those who contributed. 4 Conor Gallagher, ‘North should prepare for united Ireland possibility - ex-DUP leader’, (2018) < https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/north-should-prepare-for-united-ireland-possibility- ex-dup-leader-1.3578620> accessed 1 May 2019.
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