US election – SUPER TUESDAY Seeking the democratic candidate

INVESTMENT INSIGHTS INFOGRAPHIC

 SUPER TUESDAY 

WHAT it is & WHY it matters WHO won

600 Delegate count

Before Super Tuesday Feb 3 Mar 3 500 After Super Tuesday Iowa Super Tuesday: 1,357 400

Remaining 300 primaries: 2,467 14 34% 200 States Delegates

100 The candidate will have to win 1,991 delegates out of 3,979 overall to win the 0 democratic nomination Sanders Biden

THE DEMOCRATS SEARCH FOR A CANDIDATE

The democratic party has lost its early edge, but Following a few withdrawals and Biden’s strong coronavirus fears might propel its appeal comeback, it is now a two-horse race

70% 80%

65% 70%

60% 60%

55% 50% 50% 40% 45% 30% 40% 20% 35% 10%

30% winning the democratic nomination democratic the winning Market odds of different candidates candidates of different odds Market 0% 14/11/19 14/12/19 13/01/20 12/02/20

GOP DEM Biden Sanders

Source:Bloomberg, Amundi.Pioneer,Predictit.orgPollingReport, Washington Post.Dataas of 4March 2020. SUPER TUESDAY Investment Implications

INVESTMENT INSIGHTS INFOGRAPHIC

ROADMAP TO US ELECTIONS

March April May/June July Aug Sept Oct 3 Nov Presidential 10 28 13-16 24-27 29 7 election Michigan Acela Democratic Republican I Presidential I Vice primary Primary Convention Convention Debate (PD) Presidential Debate (VPD) 17 Awards second- Florida highest number 15 primary of delegates II PD following Super Tuesday 22 III PD

SCENARIOS AND INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

Sanders Biden Trump

. A Sanders win of the . A Biden win would be neutral . From an economic standpoint nomination is the least for markets since it would not Trump presidency has been favourable outcome for lead to the implementation of good (higher wages, lower taxes, financial markets concerned by costly populist policies. strong employment and equity the high costs of their economic . A moderate fiscal expansion with markets), but inequality has agenda. higher infrastructure spending been rising, . The healthcare sector is most could be seen as a positive, but . His agenda is a continuation of sensitive to the prospect of a this may be offset by the prospect the first-term policies. populist Democratic nomination. of an expiration of the personal . The second term in office could . The rolling back of corporate and income tax cut. encourage him to go further in personal income tax cuts, and the . The recent market sell-off and implementing some ideas (e.g., potential passage of anti-trust rally in US treasury bonds could increasing tariffs on European action against large tech damage the incumbent party and goods and trade confrontation companies would be negative for pave the way for a Democrat to with China). markets. shape US policy.

Important information: The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the authorand not necessarily Amundi, and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading on behalf of any Amundi product. There is no guarantee that market forecasts discussed will be realised or that these trends will continue. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investmentreturn and principalvalue may go down as wellas up and couldresultin thelossof allcapitalinvested.Thismaterial does not constitutean offer to buy or asolicitationto sellany unitsof any investmentfundor any service. Amundiis atrading name of theAmundi AssetManagement S.A.group of companies.Unless otherwise stated,allinformationcontainedin thisdocument is fromAmundiAssetManagement and is as of 4March 2020.. Source:Bloomberg, Amundi.Dataas at as of 4March 2020. ForIndexessee previous page. Date of First Use: 5 March 2020. Devised by: Amundi Investment Insights Unit.