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Rising Powers and Foreign Intrastate Armed Conflicts : Trends and Patterns of Chinaâ•Žs Intervention in African Civil Wars

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Rising Powers and Foreign Intrastate Armed Conflicts : Trends and Patterns of Chinaâ•Žs Intervention in African Civil Wars Lingnan University Digital Commons @ Lingnan University Theses & Dissertations Department of Political Sciences 8-17-2016 Rising powers and foreign intrastate armed conflicts : trends and patterns of China’s intervention in African civil wars Obert HODZI Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.ln.edu.hk/pol_etd Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Hodzi, O. (2016). Rising powers and foreign intrastate armed conflicts: rT ends and patterns of China’s intervention in African civil wars (Doctor's thesis, Lingnan University, Hong Kong). Retrieved from http://commons.ln.edu.hk/pol_etd/18 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Political Sciences at Digital Commons @ Lingnan University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Lingnan University. Terms of Use The copyright of this thesis is owned by its author. Any reproduction, adaptation, distribution or dissemination of this thesis without express authorization is strictly prohibited. All rights reserved. RISING POWERS AND FOREIGN INTRASTATE ARMED CONFLICTS: TRENDS AND PATTERNS OF CHINA’S INTERVENTION IN AFRICAN CIVIL WARS HODZI OBERT PhD LINGNAN UNIVERSITY 2016 RISING POWERS AND FOREIGN INTRASTATE ARMED CONFLICTS: TRENDS AND PATTERNS OF CHINA’S INTERVENTION IN AFRICAN CIVIL WARS by HODZI Obert A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Lingnan University 2016 ABSTRACT Rising Powers and Foreign Intrastate Armed Conflicts: Trends and Patterns of China’s Intervention in African Civil Wars by HODZI Obert Doctor of Philosophy What influences one state to intervene in another’s intrastate armed conflict? In answering this question, existing scholarship has tended to emphasise the position of the intervening state in the international system; suggesting that, that is the main determinant factor of a state’s external intervention behaviour. As a result, existing research on intervention in foreign intrastate armed conflicts is dominated by a focus on great powers and their intervention methods. Employing the neoclassical realist causal logic, this thesis argues, on the contrary, that whether a state intervenes in a foreign intrastate armed conflict is a factor of both systemic and state level factors. A state’s intervention behavior is therefore determined, first, by the increase in its relative economic power, then by its changing perception of threat to its interests abroad. What it means is that a state’s position in the international system, rising power, great power or small power, is not the only determinant factor in exploring its intervention behavior, unit level factors also matter. In advancing that argument, this thesis significantly challenges the prevailing assumption that intervention in foreign intrastate armed conflicts is a preserve of great powers, and an instrument of their foreign policy; and thus, broadens the intervention discourse to include the intervention behavior of rising powers. Yet, still there exist, in current literature, a lack of research which systematically connects the above neoclassical realist theoretical reasoning with empirical analysis of intervention in foreign conflicts by rising powers vis-à-vis the 21st century global order recalibrations. By exploring the intervention behaviour of China, a rising global power, in intrastate armed conflicts in three countries, Libya, Mali and South Sudan; and by using the comparative case study method to assess trends and patterns in its intervention behaviour, as its relative economic power increases and its perception of threat evolves, this thesis highlights a more systematic interlink between theoretical and empirical analysis that takes into consideration the changing status of rising powers in the global system and its effect on their intervention behaviour. It therefore makes a case for an empirical study of China’s intervention in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa that considers the interactive dynamics between systemic and domestic variables in its causal explanation of China’s foreign intervention behaviour. In doing that, it points out that understanding intervention in terms of great powers and military action limits our exploration of the emerging re-conceptualization of intervention, its practice and methods as employed by rising powers in foreign intrastate armed conflicts. The thesis therefore makes a case for an innovative (re-)definition of intervention that enables an analytical assessment of the emerging intervention practices. DECLARATION I declare that this is an original work based primarily on my own research, and I warrant that all citations of previous research, published or unpublished, have been duly acknowledged. ______________________ HODZI Obert Date: Table of Contents List of tables.................................................................................................................................. iv List of figures ................................................................................................................................. v List of abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... vi CHAPTER 1: Rising powers and intervention in foreign intrastate armed conflicts – Introduction to the study ..............................................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................1 1.2 Theoretical and empirical research puzzle: Making sense of the intervention behaviour of rising powers ..............................................................................................................................5 1.3 Why China? ..........................................................................................................................7 1.4 Methodology ........................................................................................................................9 1.4.1 Selection of intrastate armed conflict cases for study .............................................. 13 1.4.2 Data collection and analysis ....................................................................................... 20 1.5 Definition of key terms ..................................................................................................... 22 1.5.1 Intervention ............................................................................................................... 22 1.5.2 Intrastate armed conflicts .......................................................................................... 23 1.6 Study outline ..................................................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 2 - Bringing rising powers into the foreign intervention discourse – A review ....... 30 2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 30 2.2 International Relations and intervention in foreign intrastate conflicts by rising powers 31 2.3 Do existing empirical studies account for intervention in foreign conflicts by rising powers? ................................................................................................................................................ 41 2.4 China and Intervention in Intrastate Armed Conflicts in Africa ........................................ 45 2.5 Theoretical and empirical implications ............................................................................. 48 CHAPTER 3: Neoclassical realism: A foreign policy analysis framework for rising powers ..... 50 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 50 3.2 Neoclassical realism and rising powers............................................................................. 52 3.2.1 Relative economic power, the independent variable ................................................ 55 3.2.2 Increases in perception of threat to interests abroad, the intervening variable ...... 62 3.3 Tying it together ................................................................................................................ 67 CHAPTER 4: Exploring effects of the increase in China’s relative economic power on its foreign intervention behavior: A historical analysis .............................................................................. 69 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 69 4.2 Imperial China – From Pax Sinica to the Western international system of states ........... 70 i 4.3 Incorporation of imperial china into a truly international system of states ..................... 73 4.4 China, the international system, and intervention in Mao’s era ...................................... 76 4.5 Domestic economic development first, international affairs later: Deng’s China............ 85 4.6 21st Century China, increased relative economic power and intervention in Africa ........ 89 CHAPTER 5: China and the Libyan civil war: Case of ambivalent interventionism? ................ 97 5.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................
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