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Conditions Affecting the Outcome of Peace Operations in Post-Cold War Africa" (2019)

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Conditions Affecting the Outcome of Peace Operations in Post-Cold War Africa University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 1-1-2019 Conditions Affecting the Outcome of Peace Operations in Post- Cold War Africa Aaron Kyle Smith University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the Military, War, and Peace Commons, and the Peace and Conflict Studies Commons Recommended Citation Smith, Aaron Kyle, "Conditions Affecting the Outcome of Peace Operations in Post-Cold War Africa" (2019). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1621. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/1621 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE OUTCOME OF PEACE OPERATIONS IN POST-COLD WAR AFRICA __________ The Faculty of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver __________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts __________ by Aaron K. Smith June 2019 Advisor: Dr. Karen Feste © Copyright by Aaron K. Smith 2019 All Rights Reserved Author: Aaron K. Smith Title: CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE OUTCOME OF PEACE OPERATIONS IN POST-COLD WAR AFRICA Advisor: Dr. Karen Feste Degree Date: June 2019 Abstract What factors have led to successful outcomes in international peace operations conducted in Sub Saharan African countries? What factors explain mission failure? I proposed a basic theory of peace operations that linked conflict conditions to mandate design to the capability of an intervening force deployed for mission implementation developed from arguments and empirical results of previous research. Data on 86 peace operations that occurred in 23 African states covering 33 separate conflict periods between 1990 and 2015 was analyzed. My main findings showed that mandates were derived from conflict assessments and determined the size of intervening force required. The results also indicated that neither the size of an intervening force, nor the lead-organization, nor mandate robustness (offensive deterrence capacity), nor sequencing of operations were predictors of mission success or failure. However, implementation forces that included parallel support operations and/or mission assistance from Western great powers had higher levels of successful outcomes. ii Table of Contents Chapter One: Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 The Issue ................................................................................................................. 1 Previous Research ................................................................................................... 5 The Argument ....................................................................................................... 10 Outline of Thesis ................................................................................................... 12 Chapter Two: African Conflicts and Peace Operations: A Description ........................... 14 Conflict in Individual States ................................................................................. 14 Conflict Patterns Across African States ................................................................ 47 Chapter Three: Methodology ............................................................................................ 50 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................ 50 Key Variables........................................................................................................ 51 Summary ............................................................................................................... 75 Chapter Four: Empirical Findings .................................................................................... 77 Peace Operations Data .......................................................................................... 77 Hypothesis Testing................................................................................................ 86 Summary of Results ............................................................................................ 115 Chapter Five: Conclusion ............................................................................................... 121 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 121 Discussion ........................................................................................................... 122 Limitations of Study ........................................................................................... 129 Future Research .................................................................................................. 131 References ....................................................................................................................... 133 Appendix: Operation and Organization Names and Acronyms ..................................... 142 iii List of Tables and Figures Figure 1.1. Basic Theory of Peace Operations ……….………...……………...…………11 Table 3.1. Conflict Characteristics ……………...…………………………….…….…... 59 Table 3.2. Types of Peace Operations Mandates ……………………………………..…..63 Table 3.3. Mandate Tasks Variables ………………………………....………...…….…..64 Table 3.4. Peace Operations Force Composition and Capacity …………………………..69 Table 3.5. Peace Operations Outcome Variables ………………….………………...…...73 Table 4.1. Sub Saharan African Peace Operations: 1990-2015 ……………………..……78 Table 4.2. Conflict Complexity and Peace Operation Mandate: Mission Outcome ...……89 Table 4.3. Peace Operations Mission Force Capacity and Mandate Outcome ………..….93 Table 4.4. Peace Operations Mission Force Capacity and Mandate: Mission Outcome .....99 Table 4.5. Intervenor Group and Peace Operations Mandate: Mission Outcome……….101 Table 4.6. Robust Peace Operation Mandates and Mission Outcome ……………....…103 Table 4.7. Sequential Peace Operations and Mission Outcome .……………………......104 Table 4.8. Parallel Supporting Peace Operations and Mission Outcome ..…………..….107 Table 4.9. Peace Operation Parallel Support Relationships and Mission Outcome……..107 Table 4.10. Peace Operations Assistance Programs and Mission Outcome ...…………..111 Table 4.11. Assistance Program Support and Mandate Type: Mission Outcome …….....111 Table 4.12. Peace Operations Assisted by a Mission Support Program and a Parallel Peace Operation: Mission Outcome ………………………………….………………………..115 iv CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION The Issue Peace operations are designed as international interventions that seek to protect and enhance security within countries. They include a variety of missions: fact- finding/observation (peace monitoring), support of existing peace agreements (traditional peacekeeping), peace enforcement, and multi-dimensional peace building. These can generally be categorized as either facilitative missions seeking to contain conflict or transformational missions seeking to resolve a conflict (Sambanis, 2008). All peace operations aim to abate conflict and are legitimized through the United Nations Charter (Diehl & Druckman, 2015). The idea of international peace operations is not new. The 1945 United Nations Charter provided guidelines that have been used to address threats to security: Chapter VI deals with the “Pacific Settlement of Disputes,” Chapter VII contains provisions related to “Action with Respect to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace and Acts of Aggression,” and Chapter VIII outlines the role of regional arrangements and agencies in the ensuring international peace and security. However, the charter did not specifically mention peace observation and peacekeeping was not yet created. Peace operations evolved through ad hoc responses to international crises. Growth was slow throughout the Cold War. Deadlock in the Security Council limited opportunities for international intervention. 1 Peace operations began to proliferate after 1989 and in 1992 the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) was formed in the UN (Autesserre, 2019). Since 1990, the number of peace operations and the number of participating country intervenors has increased dramatically. More peace operations occurred in the four-year period following the end of the Cold War, 1990-1994, than in the previous fifty years (Williams, 2016). However, support for peace operations declined drastically following the 1993 Battle for Mogadishu in Somalia. The 1994 Rwandan Genocide reawakened the world to the importance of engagement, but not before the loss of nearly a million lives. International support for peace operations accelerated after 2001 as great powers increased funding in an effort to limit global instabilities rising from intrastate conflict. Today more than 50% of United Nations peace operations take place in Africa (Karlsrud, 2018). African peace operations have increased in complexity over time. In the 1990s, mission mandates were mainly to observe and monitor conflict conditions in unstable countries. A primary actor, the African Regional Economic Communities (RECs), was generally not successful in efforts to make or keep peace (Williams, 2016). The African Union (AU) formed in 2002, emphasized the need to promote peace, security and stability as a prerequisite for the implementation of social
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