THE EU’S LOPSIDED QUEUE: CONDITIONALITY, COMPLIANCE, AND THE DIVERGING ACCESSION PATHS OF MACEDONIA AND SERBIA

Rainier Jaarsma

A thesis submitted to the faculty at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the College of Arts and Sciences (REEES Concentration in Global Studies).

Chapel Hill 2016

Approved by:

Robert F. Jenkins

Liesbet Hooghe

John Pickles

© 2016 Rainier Jaarsma ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

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ABSTRACT

Rainier Jaarsma: The EU’s Lopsided Queue: Conditionality, Compliance, and the Diverging Accession Paths of Macedonia and Serbia (Under the direction of Robert F. Jenkins)

This thesis analyzes the differentiation of accession momentum in Serbia and

Macedonia. Although Serbia and Macedonia face similar domestic challenges in their EU accession sagas, Serbia has recently managed to outpace Macedonia, once a frontrunner in the process. The author assesses this divergence to stem from the institutional and political setup of EU enlargement, and stresses the importance for acceding countries to have a credible European perspective, and for the institutions of the EU to apply political conditionality consistently and constructively. The final section of the thesis suggests how the EU’s experience in Serbia could form the basis for a jumpstart of

Macedonia’s EU accession bid.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...v INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………1 THE ENLARGEMENT PROCESS: FROM THE SAP TO THE OPENING AND CLOSING OF ACCESSION CHAPTERS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...... 7 ON CONDITIONALITY: EVOLUTION, DIFFERENTIATION, AND POLITICIZATION……………………………………….12 THE (DIS)INCENTIVES OF COMPLIANCE: EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES AND DOMESTIC POLICY PREFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………………………...... 20 MACEDONIA’S EU ACCESSION: FROM THE ARBITRATION COMMISSION TO THE PRZHINO AGREEMENT…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..24 “Ç’EST LE NOM!”…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...... 33 SERBIA’S EU ACCESSION: COMMON EUROPEAN INTERESTS AND CONSTRUCTIVE AMBIGUITY…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..40 CONCLUDING REMARKS: OFFERING A NEW PERSPECTIVE………………………………………………………………...... 47 REFERENCES…..…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....50

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

Council Council of the European Union

CVM Mechanism for Cooperation and Verification

EEC European Economic Community

EU European Union

FRY Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

FYROM Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

ICTY International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia

ODIHR Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

OFA Ohrid Framework Agreement

OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

SAA Stabilization and Association Agreement

SAP Stabilization and Association Process

SFRY Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

SNS Serbian P