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Automotive-210324-SU (Kenanga) Sector Update 24 March 2021 Automotive OVERWEIGHT Recovery from MCO Month ↔ By Wan Mustaqim Bin Wan Ab Aziz l [email protected] According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), TIV for February 2021 registered sales of 42,784 units (+30% MoM, +4% YoY). Both MoM and YoY sales growth revved stronger with the recovery in showroom traffic volume after upliftment of MCO for certain states, boosted by exciting promotions to entice buyers and full re-opening of automotive factories. We expect stronger March sales with the rush of deliveries for players with FYE March 2021, resumption of JPJ’s full services for all types of vehicle transactions and delivery of the highly sought all-new Perodua ATIVA (6k outstanding bookings as of 1st week of March, 100 units delivered). Maintain OVERWEIGHT with 2021 TIV target of 585k units (+11% YoY) and 3% ahead of MAA’s target of 570k units. We believe the new volume-driven launches (i.e. Perodua ATIVA, Proton X50, Honda City and Nissan Almera) could help spur sales along with the overflowing back- logged bookings and further boosted by the extension of SST exemption to 30 June 2021, seasonal promotions and more new launches in the 2H of the year. Our sector pick is MBMR (OP; TP: RM4.60) as a pure proxy to the largest national Perodua dealership and deep value in its 22.58% stake in Perodua. TIV for February 2021 registered 42,784 units (+30% MoM, +4% YoY). Both MoM and YoY sales growth revved stronger with the recovery in showroom traffic volume after upliftment of MCO for certain states, boosted by exciting promotions to entice buyers and full re-opening of automotive factories. We expect stronger March sales with the rush of deliveries for players with FYE March 2021, resumption of JPJ’s full services for all types of vehicle transactions and delivery of the highly sought all-new Perodua ATIVA (6k outstanding bookings as of 1st week of March, 100 units delivered). Taking a detailed look at the passenger vehicles segment (+31% MoM, +2% YoY), both MoM and YoY performances tracked the overall unit sales trend on the above-mentioned reasons. Honda’s (+201% MoM, +150% YoY) sales mostly came from Honda City, Civic and BR-V with exceptional response for the all-new Honda City (13th October 2020). The outstanding growth was from full-recovery of production line in February compared to January when it was hit by insufficient ready stocks from the closure of automotive factories during the first week of MCO 2.0. Proton (+96% MoM, +17% YoY) was buoyed by the all-new X70 and X50 (4,776 units sold at 41% of sales), with bulk of sales coming from X50 CKD (3,345 units, total 8,141 units delivered since launches) and further supported by the face-lifted Proton Saga, Iriz, and Persona. Proton has officially launched the all-new Proton X50 in November 2020 and recently introduced limited-edition variant of its older line-ups. Mazda’s (+58% MoM, -36% YoY) sales were mostly contributed by face-lifted CX-5 and all- new CX-8 with the recovery in February after a surprise ending of its attractive 6-year/120,000-km warranty and free maintenance (including labour, parts and lubricants) package for new vehicles purchased (except the BT-50) hampered its January sales significantly. Toyota’s (+6% MoM, -8% YoY) sales mostly came from its top models all-new Toyota Vios, Yaris, and the all-new Toyota Hilux with overwhelming delivery of face-lifted Vios and Yaris which were officially launched on 17th December 2020. Perodua (-2% MoM, -12% YoY) was driven by the all-new Perodua Axia, Myvi, and Bezza, and supported by ARUZ (1,502 units sold at 9% of sales) with a slight negative reduction in February numbers as consumers held back purchases for its all-new Perodua ATIVA SUV (6k outstanding bookings as of 1st week of March, 100 units delivered). Nissan’s (+0% MoM, -27% YoY) all-new Almera has started to propel positive growth for the brand, despite its overall growth still lagging behind other marques from the dearth of all-new model launches. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with 2021 TIV target of 585k units (+11% YoY). We believe the new volume-driven launches (i.e. Perodua ATIVA, Proton X50, Honda City and Nissan Almera) could help spur sales along with the overflowing back-logged bookings and further boosted by the extension of SST exemption to 30th June 2021, seasonal promotions and more new launches expected in the 2H of the year. Overall, 2021 could potentially be a better year along with better incentives program under NAP 2020, positive impact from BNM’s overnight policy rate (OPR) cut and pre-emptive measures that soften the Covid-19 impact. Our economics research team have the view that an expected global growth recovery and the impact of the large fiscal stimulus on domestic economy would result in a projected GDP growth rebound of 4.5% in 2021 (MoF: 6.5% - 7.5%; 2020: -5.6%). TIV Market Share Movement Market Position Marques 2M21 2M20 Sales Comment Share 1st Perodua 44% 43% ▲ -8% Driven by the all-new Perodua Axia, Myvi, and Bezza Lower delivery of the all-new Proton X70 CKD, off-set by X50, and 2nd Proton 23% 22% ▲ -4% supported by the existing face-lifted line-ups 3rd Toyota 12% 9% ▲ 16% The all-new Toyota Vios, Yaris, and Hilux overwhelming responses Consumers held back purchases (all-new Honda City RS just launched 4th Honda 8% 9% ▼ -25% and upcoming HR-V 2021) 5th Nissan 2% 3% ▼ -39% Lack of new volume-driven model launches Higher base for face-lifted CX-5 and all-new CX-8 which showed 6th Mazda 2% 3% ▼ -48% increased delivery starting December 2019 National Marques 67% 65% ▲ Outstanding sales from Perodua, and boosted by Proton. Non-national Marques 33% 35% ▼ Lack of volume-driven launches. Source: MAA, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 1 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 24 March 2021 February 2021 sales for passenger and commercial vehicles according to top marques Marques (units) Feb-21 Feb-20 Jan-21 % m-o-m % y-o-y YTD 2021 YTD 2020 % y-o-y Passenger Perodua 16,583 18,895 16,887 -2% -12% 33,470 36,376 -8% Proton 11,686 9,974 5,964 96% 17% 17,650 18,480 -4% Honda 4,389 1,759 1,457 201% 150% 5,846 7,819 -25% Toyota 2,600 2,838 2,450 6% -8% 5,050 5,456 -7% Nissan 576 789 578 0% -27% 1,154 1,876 -38% Mazda 706 1,100 448 58% -36% 1,154 2,182 -47% Others 1,383 2,004 1,096 26% -31% 2,479 4,580 -46% Total 37,923 37,359 28,880 31% 2% 66,803 76,769 -13% Commercial Toyota 2,426 1,151 1,378 76% 111% 3,804 2,180 74% Isuzu 651 625 759 -14% 4% 1,410 1,139 24% Nissan 124 256 192 -35% -52% 316 540 -41% Mitsubishi 591 597 639 -8% -1% 1,230 1,165 6% Hino 341 301 241 41% 13% 582 595 -2% Mazda - 2 - - -100% - 20 -100% Others 728 796 748 -3% -9% 1,476 1,621 -9% Total 4,861 3,728 3,957 23% 30% 8,818 7,260 21% TIV 42,784 41,087 32,837 30% 4% 75,621 84,029 -10% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Total Industry Volume from February 2016 to February 2021 Units 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-16 Jun-16 Apr-17 Jun-17 Apr-18 Jun-18 Apr-19 Jun-19 Apr-20 Jun-20 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Aug-16 Nov-16 Aug-17 Nov-17 Aug-18 Nov-18 Aug-19 Nov-19 Aug-20 Nov-20 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Passenger cars Commercial vehicles Source: MAA, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 2 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 24 March 2021 Market share of top marques (Passenger) in Feb 2021 Market share of top non-national marques (Passenger) Others Mazda Others 12% Nissan 2% 4% Mazda 1% 7% Toyota 7% Perodua Hyundai 44% 0% Honda 46% Volkswagen 2% Honda 11% Nissan 6% Toyota Proton 27% 31% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Market share of 2M2021 (Passenger and Commercial) Market share of 2M2020 (Passenger and Commercial) Others Others Mazda 9% Mazda 11% Nissan 2% 3% 2% Nissan Toyota Perodua 3% Perodua 12% 44% Toyota 43% 9% Honda 8% Honda 9% Proton Proton 23% 22% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Market share of top marques (Commercial), Feb 2021 Mazda Others 0% 15% Hino 7% Toyota 50% Mitsubishi 12% Nissan 3% Isuzu 13% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 3 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 24 March 2021 New Launches 2021/2022 Face-lifted Toyota Hilux Rogue- 8th October 2020 All-New Proton X50 (CKD) – 27th Oct 2020 All-New Nissan Almera (CKD) –1st Nov 2020 Face-lifted Yaris/Vios – 17th December 2020 All-New Honda City 1.5 (CKD) – 13th Oct 2020, RS Proton Limited Edition-18th Feb 2021 e:HEV 10th March 2021 All-New Perodua Ativa (CKD) – Mar’21 All-New Toyota Corrolla Cross (CBU), CKD later-25th Mar’ 21 All-New Honda HR-V – 2021/2022 All-New Perodua D27A MPV/ Alza (CKD) – 2021/2022 Source: Various Sources PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 4 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 24 March 2021 Peer Comparison Core Earnings Net Div Name Market Shariah Revenue Growth PER (x) - Core Earnings PBV (x) ROE (%) Target Last Price Current Growth Yld (%) Cap Complia Price Rating (RM) FYE 1-Yr.
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