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Belfast Public Hire Bike Scheme Belfast Public Hire Bike Scheme Outline Business Case July 2011 Contents 1 Executive Summary 1 2 Introduction 1 3 Strategic Context 11 4 Current Position 14 5 Assessment of Need 19 6 Objectives and Constraints 51 7 Identification and Description of Options 61 8 Identification of Monetary Costs and Benefits 63 9 Assessment of Risk and Optimism Bias 70 10 Assessment of Non-Monetary Costs and Benefits 78 11 Net Present Costs and Sensitivities 90 12 Commercial and Financial Case 96 13 Management Case 110 Important Notice Please note that this report (the "Report") has been prepared by Grant Thornton UK LLP ("GTUK LLP") for the exclusive use and reliance by the Strategic Investment Board, in accordance with the terms of our contract. To the extent permitted by law, GTUK LLP its members, partners, employees and agents disclaim all and any duty of care to any third party which may read or otherwise access the content of the Report, in whole or in part, whether such duty arises in contract, tort, statute or howsoever else arises. GTUK LLP will not be liable in respect of any loss, damage or costs suffered or otherwise occasioned by any third party who acts or refrains from acting as a direct or indirect consequence of viewing or otherwise accessing the content of the Report. This Report is not intended to provide the basis of any advice to third parties and must not be relied upon by them as such, or at all, and any third party relying upon the Report, for whatever purpose, does so entirely at their own risk. Grant Thornton UK LLP does not accept or assume any liability of duty of care if this report is amended, varied or abbreviated or otherwise manipulated in any way, whether in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Grant Thornton UK LLP. Professional advice should be sought in relation to any particular circumstances. © 2011 Grant Thornton UK LLP. All rights reserved. Belfast Public Hire Bike Scheme 1 Executive Summary Title Introduction 1.1 Public hire bike schemes have become an increasingly common feature of cities in recent years, particularly in western Europe, with over 100 scheme operational under a variety of structures. Landmark cities such as London, Paris, Copenhagen, Dublin and Barcelona all operate large bike sharing schemes, however, smaller regional cities have also implemented their own projects - with varying degrees of success. Public bike hire schemes are considered to offer many potential benefits to the cities in which they operate, to users and to residents, including: provision of a new mode of public addressing of the 'first mile / last mile' transport and encouragement of modal commuter issue; shift from motorised transport; reductions in congestion; and health and environmental benefits; promotion of tourism. 1.2 There are in turn a range of risks which need to be addressed in considering the implementation of such a scheme, including over/under estimation of demand; theft and vandalism; safety and public liability issues; availability of space and planning issues; and revenue and capital funding. Strategic Context 1.3 Both the Department for Regional Development and Belfast City Council have strategic objectives within their respective Corporate Plans which focus on inter alia reducing emissions, congestion, and creating a cleaner, greener City - objectives which a public hire bike has the potential to contribute towards. Belfast City Council furthermore has key aims to improve health and activity levels within the City, and to reduce health and social inequalities. A public hire bike scheme has the potential to operate as a new, fully inclusive and low cost public transport option which is accessible to all the community, providing both transport and health benefits to those who are most disadvantaged. Indeed, the Belfast Metropolitan Transport Plan also aims to provide for greater levels of cycling and recognised the role transport initiatives can play in addressing health and social inclusion measures. 1.4 Key infrastructure developments in the City Centre including in particular Belfast On The Move, also aim to focus on the development of ‘sustainable transport enabling measures’ and aim to create a more cycle friendly city through the provision of increased cycling infrastructure and cycle lanes. The development of a bike hire scheme can serve to help exploit these sustainable transport measures. The development of such a scheme will also align with policy initiatives including Travelwise NI and the Northern Ireland Cycling Strategy, which again reinforces the potential for health, environmental and social inclusion benefits to be delivered through cycling. Current Position 1.5 There is no existing public hire bike scheme in Belfast. In terms of physical cycling infrastructure, there is a relatively small network of both segregated and non segregated cycle lanes in the City Council area. 1.6 At present, cycling in Belfast (and Northern Ireland as a whole) has a relatively low uptake. Over the past decade, the overall level of cycling within Northern Ireland, measured by total © 2017 Grant Thornton UK LLP. All rights reserved. 1 Belfast Public Hire Bike Scheme distance travelled, has remained at approximately 0.3%. Within the Belfast area the overall modal share for cycling remains less than 1% in terms of total distance travelled. However, the average distance travelled by cyclists has more than doubled as a proportion of overall travel over the last decade. In terms of commuters and business trips, the percentage utilising bicycles as a mode of transport to work within the Belfast area has grown, but remained low over the last decade, at circa 3%, albeit it has increased from a low base level. By way of comparison, the overall share of people travelling to work in the UK on bicycle is also approximately 3%1. Assessment of Need 1.7 In line Department for Transport (DfT) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), a Comparative Study, which makes comparisons with other schemes similar to the one being proposed, has been undertaken. This involved: Detailed study of metrics and experience from a list of Most Similar Cities, including consultation with scheme operators or public authorities, where possible and Case studies of best practice & experience elsewhere from identified landmark schemes. 1.8 The Most Similar Cities study examined a range of physical and performance metrics from Dublin, Aarhus, Montpellier and Bari. This was undertaken through interviews and consultation with scheme operators and public sector authorities where possible, and through detailed desktop research. In addition, metrics and data from several other schemes of varying sizes have also been assessed, which are based on a research exercise undertaken by the European sponsored OBIS Project ("Optimising Bike Sharing in European Cities"). Conclusions of Need / Demand based on Comparative Study 1.9 The Most Similar Cities study and the review of Experience Elsewhere indicates that there is potential for an appropriate level of demand for a public bike hire scheme in Belfast, if one were to be provided. The key cities examined indicate a conservative registration or uptake range of between 2% to 4% of the population could be achieved. In Belfast, based on a population of 268,300 this would imply the potential for a registration or uptake of between circa 5,500 and 11,000. These potential metrics for Belfast have been discussed and informed by consultation with operators of schemes elsewhere. In addition, an online survey has been carried out on behalf of Belfast City Council in February 2010 of over 200 individuals which indicated that over 50% of the people living or working in Belfast would use a public hire bike scheme if one were implemented in the City2. 1.10 The key cities examined also indicates a conservative level of infrastructure provision may be in the range of 300 to 500 bikes. In terms of bikes to stations ratio, a metric of approximately 10:1 to 15:1 would imply that serviced by between 20 to 50 bike stations. The bike stations would have a docking point to bike ratio of in the region of 2:1. The bike stations should be located no more than 300-400 meters apart at key strategic locations. 1.11 These potential metrics for Belfast have been discussed and informed by consultation with operators of schemes elsewhere based on the indicative geographic, demographic and socio economic characteristics of Belfast. These operators also strongly recommended against the development of a scheme using an initial pilot programme on a smaller scale, based on their experience elsewhere, as these schemes typically fail to attract critical mass and utilisation. 1.12 The following table summarises the projected range of Uptake, Infrastructure and Utilisation which may be achievable in Belfast, on the basis of the Most Similar Cities 1 Method of Travel to Work UK/NI Comparison, Travel Survey for NI In Depth Report 2007-09, DRD 2 Examining the potential for bike sharing in Belfast, British Council, 2010 © 2017 Grant Thornton UK LLP. All rights reserved. 2 Belfast Public Hire Bike Scheme comparative study and examination of cities and experience elsewhere, including consultation with scheme operators. Range Low High Registration Uptake (% of population) 2% 4% Registration Uptake (no.) c. 5,500 c. 11,000 Bikes (no.) c. 300 c. 500 Stations (no.) c. 30 c. 50 Trips per Day (no.) c. 900 – 1,500 c. 1,500 – 2,500 Summary of Key Experience 1.13 A number of key lessons and success factors have emerged during the research as to characteristics of a successful scheme. These are summarised below: Critical Mass - research has indicated that small scale pilot projects are generally unsuccessful. Discussions with operators of existing schemes have also delivered the clear message that pilot schemes often will fail.
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