Marketplace Views Friday, March 27, 2020

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At a time when advertisers are accustomed to lavish parties and the negotiation of billions of dollars in media commitments, they are now confronted with big questions about how to invest in the future.

This week our Investment Team offers their take on navigating the upcoming Upfront season during a period of uncertainty and ongoing media market shifts.

Let’s be Upfront about this Year’s Upfronts

The actions taken to protect the health of U.S. citizens and the entire world have had a dramatic and sudden impact on the U.S. consumer economy, which affects all of our clients’ businesses and the media owners’ marketplace. With concerts, award shows and major sporting events being postponed and cancelled, delays in production for automotive, fashion, tech and television alike, and live shows being hosted straight out of TV personalities’ homes, it’s hard to fathom that we are once again entering Upfront season.

There is no doubt that COVID-19 will have an unprecedented and widespread impact on business around the globe, both now and throughout the year. The media industry as we know it is about to somersault into uncharted territory, and we anticipate there will be delays in negotiations that once felt routine.

But the closer the economy moves toward normalcy, every marketer will need to be prepared for the advertising market to begin moving again. A catalyst for this could be back-to-school and holiday shopping, when retailers will be looking to recover lost revenue.

So how do you approach investment strategies when the supply of content is becoming constricted? When TV pilots for the 20/21 season are still on hold? And as media owners are forced to become more dependent on unscripted programming and their existing content libraries?

While it seems counterintuitive with so much up in the air, now is not the time for complacency. Because when the economy ramps up again, demand will quickly outpace supply, and advertisers will need to have their investment strategies lined up.

Here are our predictions and recommendations for approaching investment as we prepare for a novel Upfront season:

1. Take stock in scatter market strategies: COVID-19 has had an immediate impact on many categories, creating a soft Q2 scatter marketplace. For brands that can adapt messaging for the current environment, especially in April, this could be an ideal time to take advantage of favorable pricing and higher ratings. Looking ahead, advertisers that have pushed back their inventory into Q3 will ﬁnd tightened supply as they ramp back up, so they will want to consider creative approaches to scatter, and perhaps shifting traditional media investments into the direct response marketplace, OTT, or other digital and social platforms.

2. Today’s postponements are tomorrow’s opportunities: As more and more events shift to different times of the year because of the coronavirus, advantageous opportunities may present themselves. We encourage advertisers to be ﬂexible and consider these opportunities as they come along. Right now, we are looking at a jam-packed lineup of fall events. So, plan accordingly to take advantage of the months ahead.

3. While the national market recovers, look to local: Long term, coronavirus will mark a shift to prioritizing home, family and community, which means advertisers could look for opportunities to tap into local investment, especially in regions that are less impacted by the virus.

4. Double down on OTT: Viewers have been shifting their video consumption habits toward alternative streams over the past few years. Due to “stay at home” orders, increased usage of OTT, VOD and FEP is increasingly becoming the norm. We urge advertisers to follow consumer behavior by taking advantage of these alternative video options and increasing investment substantially.

5. Don’t lose sight of virtual Upfronts: Stay engaged in what’s happening during this year’s Upfronts, so you can be prepared to move quickly on high-demand programming and take advantage of opportunities to secure premium inventory at good prices when the market shifts, and as you build out your short- and long-term marketing strategies.

The most important thing right now is to be ready to turn your media investment strategy up as soon as the time is right. Clients will be hearing from our investment team as we reach out in the next few weeks to share marketplace updates and strategies customized to your needs. Start now by considering approaches to leveraging the full spectrum of inventory, or risk being elbowed out by every brand looking to build momentum in the wake of coronavirus.

Contributors: Colleen Durkin, Linda Platt, Anne Elkins, Nicole Interlandi, Maryann Thompson and Fabian Villegas

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Unsubscribe Manage preferences Marketplace Update Thursday, March 26, 2020

As cases of COVID-19 continue to rise in the U.S., Americans are already adapting new behaviors, based on new research from The Harris Poll. TV ratings continue to rise, but networks will face challenges producing original programming beyond Q2. Ongoing shifts in the media marketplace and consumer behavior will require advertisers to continually make adjustments.

Here is the current state of the media marketplace in the U.S.

New Harris Poll Research

The Harris Poll ﬁelded new research from March 21-23, with several implications for marketers and media leaders.

The study found Americans are eager to get back to normal, but it may take time to return to old habits:

22% say that once the government confirms the spread of the virus is flattening, they would be willing to immediately go back to the office. It will take longer, a month after restrictions are lifted, before 28% of Americans say they would go out to dinner and 17% say they would attend a gym class. It could take 2-3 months for Americans to attend large social gatherings (22%), go to the movies (21%), give a handshake (21%), stay in a hotel (20%), or go to a sporting event (17%). 15% of Americans say it will take 2-3 months for them to visit a casino or take public transportation (e.g., subway, busses, trains) again. Nearly a fifth of Americans (18%) say it would take them 4-6 months to fly again; 22% say it will take a year or longer before they take a cruise. Americans expect social distancing guidelines to last 10.5 weeks.

Implications: It will take Americans time to get back to relative normal after COVID- 19. Audiences will be more fractured; experiences will be more bespoke; and brand occasions will be increasingly built around the home, small groups or friends and family.

The study also found that social distancing does not have to mean isolation.

Over half (55%) of Gen Z and Nearly 4 in 10 Americans say they are virtually connecting with family and friends via FaceTime and other means; over two thirds (35%) of Gen Z had a virtual gathering with friends just in the last week (20% of all Americans). 44% of Americans say they have “checked in with someone I hadn’t reached out to in a while” and nearly a ﬁfth (19%) have 'helped an at-risk friend or neighbor with errands.”

Americans are also adopting new habits, with a focus on staying active, mentally and physically.

36% of Americans are getting back into old hobbies and 25% are picking up new ones, which is highest among Gen Z (54%) and lowest among older Americans 65+ (27%). 36% are going for daily walks, especially older Americans 65+ (40%). People are also searching for a reprieve by tuning out the news: 4 in 10 Americans say they are 'reading more non-news related content to cope.' Almost 4 in 10 Gen Z Americans are setting routine breaks in online classes or the workday, compared to only 10% of adults ages 55-64 and 15% of ages 45-54.

Separately, a global study from Kantar about consumer attitudes and media habits, reported there is very little expectation among consumers that brands should stop advertising during the current pandemic, and going dark on TV for six months could result in a 40% reduction in brand awareness. A majority of those surveyed expect advertising to make a positive contribution to society, including: talking about how the brand is helpful in new everyday life (77%); informing about their efforts to face the situation (75%); and offering a reassuring tone (70%).

TV Ratings

Early Morning NBC’s Today Show reigned supreme among viewers 18-49 and 25-54 years old, while enjoying another week of double-digit growth.

NBC’s Meet the Press was ﬂat this week while remaining a top three program with the same age groups, and CBS’ Face the Nation grew over 30% after featuring a sit- down with Dr. Anthony Fauci.

CBS' Sunday Morning reigned for adults 55+, followed by Face the Nation, growing half of a rating point week to week.

Daytime The Price is Right on CBS was the lead program in Daytime for all demos we measure.

The Young and the Restless, General Hospital, Days of Our Lives, and Bold and the Beautiful enjoyed week to week growth.

ABC’s The View was up a tenth of a rating point among adults 25-54, slightly beating out The Talk on CBS.

Evening News As the news daypart climbed another 50% among adults 18-49 and 25-54, NBC was the big winner this week with Nightly News up 69% and 79% respectively, and weekend ratings doubling.

ABC World News Tonight won the week with adults 55+ with a 9.6 rating, and 8.3 among men 55+.

Late Night Late Night was relatively ﬂat this week, but NBC’s Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon returned from his home. Following the “at home” model, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert will return to CBS next week.

Download Our Full Report

Primetime Television Updates

ABC

20/20: Will continue to air for two hours on Fridays. Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.: Production completed, TBA start date. American Idol: Production stopped, looking into clip shows or contestant interview shows. Bachelor: Listen To Your Heart: Production completed, finale on May 18. Baker and the Beauty: Scheduled to air until June. Blackish: Production completed, finale slated for May 5. Connors: Production completed, finale slated for May 5. For Life: Finale to air May 12. Goldbergs: Production stopped. Good Doctor: Production completed, finale to air March 30. Grey's Anatomy: Production stopped (21 of 25 episodes), finale to air April 9. How to Get Away with Murder: Production completed, finale to air May 14. Million Little Things: Production completed, finale to air March 26. Mixed-ish: Finale potentially slated for May 5. Modern Family: Production completed, finale to air April 8. Rookie: Production completed, finale slated for May 10. Shark Tank: Finale to potentially air May 15. Single Parents: Production completed. Station 19: Production completed, finale to air May 14. Stumptown: Production completed, finale to air March 25. Who Wants to be a Millionaire?: Production completed, finale to potentially air May 20.

CBS

All Rise: Production stopped. Blue Bloods: Production stopped. Bob Loves Abisola: Production stopped. Bull: Production stopped. FBI: Production stopped. FBI: Most Wanted: Production stopped. God Friended Me: Production completed. Hawaii 5.0: Production completed, ﬁnale to air May 12. Macgyver: Production stopped. Magnum PI: Production completed. Mom: Production stopped NCIS: Production stopped. NCIS: LA: Production stopped. NCIS: New Orleans: Production stopped. Neighborhood: Production stopped, 20 of 21 episodes completed. Seal Team: Production stopped, 20 of 22 episodes completed. Survivor: Production completed. SWAT: Production stopped; 21 of 22 episodes completed. Young Sheldon: Production stopped; 22 episodes ordered.

NBC

American Ninja: Production stopped. America's Got Talent: Filming March 20 and 21 with no audience. Blacklist: Production stopped, 18 of 22 episodes completed. Blind Spot: Production completed, airing this Summer. Brooklyn 99: Production completed. Chicago Fire: Production stopped, 20 of 23 episodes completed. Chicago Med: Production stopped, 20 of 23 episodes completed. Chicago PD: Production stopped, 20 of 23 episodes completed. Council of Dads: Finished filming shows through June 6. Good Girls: Production stopped through end of April, 12 of 16 episodes completed. Indebted: Production completed. Law & Order: SVU: Production stopped; 20 of 24 episodes completed. Little Big Shots: Continuing production. Manifest: Production completed. New Amsterdam: Airing shows through April 7, 20 of 22 episodes completed. Songland: Continuing production. Superstore: Production stopped; 21 of 22 episodes completed. The Voice: Currently airing episodes, discussions ongoing. The Wall: Production completed. This Is Us: Production completed, finale to air March 24. Will & Grace: Production completed. World of Dance: Finale filmed on March 20 with no audience, air date TBA. Zoey: Production completed through April 12.

FOX

911: Production completed. Deputy: Production completed. Empire: Production stopped, 18 of 20 episodes completed. Last Man Standing: Production stopped, 21 of 22 episodes completed. Lego Masters: Production completed, ﬁnale to air April 15. Masked Singer: Production completed. Mental Samurai: Premiere on April 22. Prodigal Son: Production stopped, 22 episodes ordered. Resident: Production stopped, 23 episodes ordered.

The 100: Production completed, premiere on May 20. Batwoman: Production stopped, 19 of 22 episodes completed. Charmed: Production stopped, 20 of 22 episodes completed. Dynasty: Production stopped, 20 of 22 episodes completed. The Flash: Production stopped, 20 of 22 episodes completed. In The Dark: Premiere on May 28. Legacies: Production stopped. Legends of Tomorrow: Production completed. Nancy Drew: Production stopped, 22 episodes ordered. Riverdale: Production stopped, 20 of 22 episodes completed. Roswell: Production completed. Stargirl: Premiere on May 12. Supergirl: Production stopped, 21 of 22 episodes completed. Supernatural: Production stopped, 18 of 20 episodes completed.

Events & Programming

Industry Events The Tony Awards have been postponed.

Upfronts A+E Networks has changed both the content and delivery of its Upfront showcase to a 25-minute video sent directly to advertisers, downplaying programming plans and focusing on COVID-19 initiatives and pro-social community efforts.

Programming HBO’s Last Week Tonight With John Oliver and Real Time With Bill Maher have set return dates for new episodes. Last Week Tonight will air a new episode this Sunday, March 29 at 11 PM ET.

CBS’ The Late Show With Stephen Colbert is joining other late-night programs in resuming production, albeit remotely. The network will also present special "Homefest: James Corden's Late Late Show Special," on March 30 at 10 PM ET featuring music performances and guest appearances ﬁlmed remotely.

Fox will air beneﬁt special 'Fox Presents The iHeart Living Room Concert for America' on March 29 at 9 PM ET hour in place of 'The iHeartRadio Music Awards' original broadcast telecast, featuring performances ﬁlmed from artists' homes.

Paid Search

Google Trends created a dedicated section for Coronavirus, including top questions asked in the U.S. over the past week, information on which products are being searched and how demand for other categories is changing over time.

Searches show a signiﬁcant month-over-month rise in preparing for extended periods at home. As searches for restaurants have declined, more people are looking for takeout and delivery options. Safety is the number one concern in trying new methods of food delivery.

Social Media

Instagram revealed a host of updates Tuesday, highlighted by the rollout of Co- Watching, which enables people to view posts on the network together while they are video chatting.

Reddit introduced polls, a new type of post, on Tuesday enabling its users to share their opinion by voting on questions shared by Redditors.

Streaming

Netﬂix and YouTube announced they are throttling streaming quality globally to minimize network stress. Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video are expected to follow suit in the coming days.

Peacock, Quibi, HBO Max still plan to launch as scheduled.

NASCAR and Formula One are adapting to esports versions of their events with a lot of success.

Podcasts continue to be a dominant form of media consumption in the U.S. According to podcast measurement ﬁrm Podtrac, top download growth podcast categories are: News (74%), Comedy (34%), Sports (21%), and Society & Culture (12%). True Crime podcasts experienced a -8% decline in download growth.

Weekly audience growth by category reﬂected gains as well: 36% for News, 14% for Comedy, 7% for Sports, 5% for Society & Culture, and -6% for True Crime through the week ending March 22.

Radio

Nielsen issued the results of a perceptual study on the impact of COVID-19 on radio listening.

Conducted on March 20-22, the online survey shows consumers hold radio in high regard, with 60% of Adults 18+ saying they trust radio to give timely information about the coronavirus.

83% of American adults report spending the same or more time with radio as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, and more than half said radio is a good source of information about the coronavirus and the associated restrictions; trust that what they hear on radio is accurate; and trust the information they get from their favorite radio hosts. 46% of American adults indicated that radio helps them know what stores are open and where to shop locally.

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Unsubscribe Manage preferences Marketplace Update Tuesday, March 24, 2020

This week, we continue to see to see new developments in how COVID-19 is impacting business and the media marketplace. Live sporting events continue to face disruption, with the postponement of the Summer Olympics until 2021 announced this morning, and U.S. airlines are moving toward a potential halt in domestic ﬂights. At the same time, news consumption continues to surge, as Americans seek up-to-date information and fresh content.

Here is the current state of the media marketplace in the U.S.

TV Ratings

Overall primetime network ratings were up again across all demos this week, with strong performances from The Voice, This is Us, and the return of the three Chicago series (Med, Fire, P.D.).

NBC had the highest week-to-week lift across all demos. Masked Singer topped all programs among ages 18-49 and ages 25-54, giving Fox higher overall averages this week across all demos. CBS was top among ages 55+ and men 55+, but was down on every other demo except ages 18-49. ABC was down on every demo measured, except men 55+ (+10%), with Station 19 landing in the top 10 for that demo.

On Cable, the news networks once again dominated viewership this week.

Fox News, MSNBC, and CNN led the way for all demos and showed gains across the board. Adult Swim was the top entertainment network among younger demos. WWE Monday Night Raw on USA was the number one overall program among ages 18-49 and 25-54. HGTV and History were top for ages 55+ and History and TV Land Classic were the top networks for men 55+. History’s The Curse of Oak Island doubled its ratings week to week among ages 24-54. Fixer Upper on HGTV improved its rating by 18 rating points or an increase of 253%. Viewers also seem to be watching a lot more of A&E’s Live PD: Wanted, Friends on TBS, and Dr. Pimple Popper on TLC. For older demos, GSN was among top networks with The Chase and Family Feud showing gains week to week.

Download Our Full TV Ratings Update

Media Consumption

With sporting events, movie releases and TV production on pause, news consumption has skyrocketed in the U.S. over the past few weeks due to the coronavirus, according to TV ratings, web trafﬁc, app downloads and social media interactions.

Local TV news consumption has seen steadily higher viewing over the past two weeks as more people of all ages are now either working from home or doing online schoolwork at home due to the COVID-19 virus, according to Nielsen.

Viewership in the top 25 markets witnessed an overall 7% increase for ages 2 years and older for the week of Mar. 9, compared to the week of Feb. 3. Among 25- to-54-year-olds -- the increase was 10%. School closings are a major reason, Nielsen revealed, that local TV news viewing among ages 2-17 was up by 20%. The biggest individual market gains over that month period were: San Francisco (38.1%); Orlando (26.1%); Los Angeles (25.3%); Seattle (25.3%); and Boston (22.6%). New York, the biggest U.S. market, was up 12.8%

Publishers, including Bloomberg and The Atlantic, are seeing subscribers surge as they relax paywalls for virus-related news.

In the U.S., digital subscriptions rose 63% in the past week compared with the same period the year before, according to subscription technology platform Piano.

From Amazon to Nickelodeon, media outlets and e-learning companies are providing free access to kids content and resources to parents entertaining their kids at home while also working remotely.

Streaming

Oprah Winfrey launched a free Apple TV+ series focused on COVID-19 stories, called OprahTalks.

YouTube continues to roll out resources to help families educate their kids during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

FuboTV, the sports-focused streaming service, is merging with entertainment company FaceBank, the two companies announced on Monday.

Podcasts have become more popular, with listeners in Italy indicating where this space is trending:

Religion and spirituality podcasts are up 1500% Self-improvement podcasts are up 500% Business podcasts are up 500% Kids and family podcasts are up 300% Education podcasts are up 300% Arts podcasts are up 300%

These podcast trends are starting to take hold in the U.S. as well, with books up 250%, hobbies and games up 160% and religion and spirituality up 160% since the beginning of March.

Social Media

Tumblr has seen a 5% uptick in global daily users, as more people seek content and community during the Coronavirus epidemic.

Facebook and Twitter are seeing significant spikes in traffic as users return to the platforms, with Twitter reporting it has seen 164 million daily users, a 23% increase on the first quarter of 2019.

Twitter said it is working with global public health authorities to dole out more of its blue veriﬁcation checkmarks to credible experts on the coronavirus pandemic. A social listening study of Twitter conversations revealed education, theme parks, travel, hockey and business leaders are the topics that have grown the most on Twitter since the start of the Coronavirus outbreak.

LinkedIn will host more live videos on its platform from veriﬁed broadcasters and health experts to address the coronavirus pandemic.

Pinterest searches related to ‘homeschool schedules’ are up 32x; searches like ‘freezer meals’ are up 155%; and ‘work from home’ searches are up 170% in the last two weeks, compared to the two weeks prior. Searches for ‘stress relief’ and ‘stress quotes’ have tripled compared to this time last year.

Hearst Television is launching a Facebook Watch series called Field Notes, reporting on coronavirus.

TikTok will donate $10 million to the WHO’s Solidarity Response Fund, which send essential supplies to frontline healthcare workers, gives communities have access to fact-based information and accelerates efforts to develop treatments and vaccines.

ATTN:, the progressive video news outlet aimed at millennials, is set to release several new lives series across Facebook and Instagram, featuring celebrities talking about the coronavirus.

Events & Programming Sporting Events

The Summer Olympics in Tokyo have been ofﬁcially postponed until 2021.

Retail & E-Commerce

Foursquare detailed foot trafﬁc patterns at airports, bars, grocers, ofﬁces, restaurants and warehouse stores in LA, NYC, SF and Seattle—and found that visits to big box stores such as Costco and Sam’s Club went up nearly 39% between mid-February and mid-March, with the largest spike in the New York area (51%).

Amazon has changed to logistics, transportation, supply chain, purchasing and third-party seller processes to “prioritize stocking and delivering essential items like household staples, sanitizers, baby formula and medical supplies.”

Transportation & Transit

U.S. airlines are considering halting domestic operations.

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