IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI Economy |Security |Domestic policy |Political parties |Trade unions |Democracy terms of their legitimacy. and of theEssidgovernment, aswell astheimplications in is likely toshape thechoices of thepresidency of theRepublic structural factors, thispaper analyses how thecurrent context consolidation. Taking into account bothcontingent and is key tounderstandingtheongoing process of democracy Quartet who wererecently awarded theNobel Peace Prize, political transition itself. TheNational Dialogue, hostedby the without takinginto account theconditions surrounding the to come topower, cannotbeunderstood dynamics at play afterthe2014elections, which allowed challenges that castdoubt on its survival capacity. Thepolitical consolidation remain tobeseen.Yet the regimefacesserious and presidential elections of 2014,thechancesof democratic institutions have been put in place, and after the legislative so farinits democratic transition. Now that all thedemocratic Tunisia istheonly Arab Spring country which hassucceeded ABSTRACT by MaryamBenSalem Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Dynamics inTunisiaandtheRelated Social, Economic andPolitical keywords IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 2 bodies de jure ” (such asmilitary or religious leaders). power generated bythenewdemocracydoes nothave tosharepower with other generate newpolicies,” andthefourth isthat “theexecutive, legislative andjudicial popular vote.” Thethirdisthisgovernment’s de factopossession of “theauthority to second isagovernment that comes topower as“thedirectresult of afreeand “sufficient agreement” on“procedures to produce an elected government.” The contribution tothedemocratisation literature. Thefirst of theserequirements is No. 2 (April 2012), p. 90, http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/node/358. 90, p. 2012), No. 2(April * 3 2 1 O’Donnell. words iftheregimeseemstobe“likely toendure,” asunderlinedbyGuillermo respectively, weneedtoknow thechancesof democratic consolidation, inother and presidential elections have been held in October andNovember 2014 Now that all the democratic institutions have been put in place, and that legislative of democratic transition transition. In fact,according toAlfred Stepan, Tunisiahasmetall therequirements Tunisia istheonly Arab Spring country which hasmore or less succeeded inits Introduction by MaryamBenSalem* Scenarios Tunisia andtheRelated Short- to Medium-Term Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics in and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia . very unstable security situation have addedtohighly contested political decisions that castdoubts on its survival capacity. An unfavourable economic outlook anda Science of Sousse and Vice President of the Association tunisienne d’études politiques (ATEP). politiques d’études tunisienne Association of the Vice President and of Sousse Science 1996, p. 4. p. 1996, and Post-Communist South Europe America, Europe, (1996), p. 37. p. (1996), Paper produced within the framework of the New-Med Research Network, October 2015. October Network, New-Med of the framework Research the within produced Paper Maryam Ben Salem is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Faculty of Law and Political Political and of Law Faculty at the Science of Political Professor Assistant is Salem Ben Maryam

Journal of Democracy of tolerations”, Journal in twin the and transition “Tunisia’s Stepan, Alfred Journal of Democracy of Journal Consolidation”, about in “Illusions O’Donnell, Guillermo Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Southern Southern and Consolidation. Transition of Democratic Problems Stepan, Alfred and J. Linz Juan 3 Thisquestion iseven more crucial astheregimeisfacingserious crises 1 that heandJuan Linzidentified intheirseminal , Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, Press, University Hopkins Johns , Baltimore, 2 , Vol. 7, No. 2 , Vol. 23, IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 3 return of theinstitutional arena Through theagreement signed on theorganisation of elections, theNDshowed the for its efforts. avocats de Tunisie) – and has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prizein Autumn 2015 droits del’homme, LTDH) andtheTunisian Order of Lawyers (Ordrenational des de l’artisanat, UTICA), the Industry, Trade and Handicrafts (Union tunisienne del’industrie, du commerce et Labour Union (Union générale tunisienne du travail, UGTT), theTunisian Union of which ishostedbyfour organisations known astheQuartet–TunisianGeneral trust inthepolitical class.Thiscrisiswassolved viatheNational Dialogue (ND), transition process, signalling loss of electoral legitimacy for theNCA andloss of within theNational Constituent Assembly (NCA), contestation of the government, both by the street and bythedeputies conflits.revues.org/443. Conflits & politique”, fluiditéinCultures et collectives mobilisations démocratiques: transitions “Les Banegas, FNSP, dela Richard 1986; Presses Paris, maintained the party in an oppositional role. oppositional an in party the maintained Tounes to Nidaa ally, and Ennahda led that context crisis of the resolution the and expectations 6 5 4 its permeability totherequests and“moves” from “external” players. characterisation byMichel Dobry:theloss of autonomy of thepolitical sphere,and Tunisia went through apolitical crisistheoutlines of which correspond tothe process itself. After theassassination of Deputy Mohamed Brahmi inJuly 2013, without takinginto account theconditions surrounding thepolitical transition of 2014, which allowed Nidaa Tounes to come to power, cannot be understood The political dynamics at play afterthelegislative andpresidential elections potential deepsocial crisis. and economic aswell assecurity guidelines/directions, castingtheshadows of a and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 7 of protesters. thousands by joined later were They NCA. of the dissolution the and government of the resignation for the calling NCA of the deputies dissident by Brahmi, national interest. national for primarily working organisations as to appear it them allowed since UTICA and UGTT of the claims to corporate legitimacy given also has Dialogue National However, the decision. political Populaire) reshaping of therole of UGTT andUTICA, theexclusion of thePopular Front (Front Tounes asapolitical force andaserious alternative toEnnahdha,therestructuring/ resources andthesettingof therules of thepolitical arena:theemergenceof Nidaa identifying thekey players, theaccumulation andtheassessment of thepolitical sectoralising thepolitical game.But it wasprimarily anappropriate framework for

The was part of the National Dialogue, but the gap between its vision and and vision its gap between but the Dialogue, National of the part Front was Popular The Sit-in, called Itissam errahil (sit-in of departure), organised after the assassination of Mohamed of Mohamed assassination the after (sit-in organised errahil Sit-in, of departure), Itissam called By this, we mean that political institutions and the State regained their legitimacy as a place of aplace as legitimacy their regained State the and institutions political that mean we this, By Sociologie des crises politiques. La dynamique des mobilisations multisectorielles mobilisations des dynamique La politiques. crises des Sociologie Dobry, Michel 7 andsoon. Tunisian Human Rights League (Ligue tunisienne des 6 asthefocal point of political decision-making, re- , No. 12 (Winter 1993), p. 105-140, p. 1993), (Winter , No. http:// 12 5 wasabreakingpoint inthe 4 Thestrong , IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 4 within a coalition called the Troika for three years, The Ennahdhaparty, which wasthemajority with theNCA andwhich governed legitimate players. two political parties –Nidaa Tounes andEnnahdha –asthemostinfluential and The national dialogue imposed the employers’ organisation, the labour union and for thelegitimisation of theirroles andcrystallisation of theirspecific identities. of political resources for certain players, which theycontinue touse,aswell as within thepower circle. It constituted anexcellent opportunity for themobilisation The NDcontributed significantly tothecurrent configuration of alliance games 1.1 Thegame of political alliances 1. Political dynamics regards totheterrorist threat, which represents its biggest challenge today. severe crisis.Finally, wewill examine thesecurity policy of thegovernment with that promotes potentially socially infuriating economic choices inacontext of UTICA, andtheirimpact on thesupport –or thelackthereof –of agovernment social and political crisis.Next, wewill look at thedynamics betweenUGTT and alliances consolidate political choices andbecome asupporting force preventing legislative andpresidential elections of 2014,which will allow ustoanalyse how these In thispaper wewill firsthighlight thepolitical alliances that were formed afterthe Ennahdha, Nidaa Tounes, UTICA andUGTT. political decisions, stability mainly dependson collusive transactions between government, including theeconomic crisis,thesecurity crisisanddisputed We argue that, though many factors posepotential threats tothestability of the implications intermsof legitimacy andthediscrediting of power. of thepresidencyof theRepublic andof theEssidgovernment, aswell astheir interaction, weanalyse how theyshape anddeterminethechoices anddecisions crisis, security threats) andtheeffects of thecurrent context of widenedtactical Taking into account boththespecific cyclical factors of that period (economic their positioning andtheirstrategic orientations. comprehend what ishappening today intermsof alliances among political players, What hashappened within theNDandconsequences areessential to that helps tounderstandbettertheongoing process of democracyconsolidation. which it led, theNational Dialogue isavery relevant framework of interpretation Through thetransformation of thesystem of interaction betweentheplayers to and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 8 CPR) and Ettakatol. and CPR)

Made up of the Ennahdha Movement, the Congress for the Republic ( Republic for the Congress the Movement, Ennahdha up of the Made 8 saw a reduction of its influence. Congrès pour la République pour la Congrès , IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 5 on 17September 2013). civil society initiative toresolve thepolitical crisisthecountry wasexperiencing 2011, thegeneral strike decreedafterthe assassination of Mohamed Brahmi andthe to collective mobilisation whenever it wasinvolved (e.g.,theuprising of January was decisive insofar astheunion hadoften given considerable legitimacy andsize should devalue thistypeof resource inthepolitical arena.As such, therole of UGTT during thepolitical crisisof July 2013.Theimplementation of legitimate institutions action. These hadinfactgainedlegitimacy during therevolutionary moment and players andtodevalue non-institutional political resources, namely collective Essebsi’s showpieces during his electoral campaign, anattempt to exclude outside Leaving thepolitical arenatotheprofessionals wasone of President BejiCaid democracy or thedefence of thepoorest. for collective mobilisation, using in turn two nuances of protest, either that of available tothem, that around which theycreated theirpolitical identity: thecall (e.g., thePopular Front). Theyfindthemselves forced tomobilise the only resource stood out viaintransigent positions regardingthenegotiations with Ennahdha they refusedtotake partinit (e.g.,theCongress for theRepublic), or because they marginalised even more the parties who were the losers of the ND, either because (ARP), namely thealliance betweenEnnahdha,Nidaa Tounes andAfek Tounes, The newpower balance within theAssembly of theRepresentatives of thePeople “democrats vssymbolsof theoldregime”on theother. of October2014,toapolarisation of “liberalism vssocialism” on the one handand period and was one of the main electoral themesduring the legislative elections from that between “antagonising societal projects” which marked the transition Ennahdha isthat it haswidely contributed toshiftingthepolitical polarisation, the mostremarkable consequences of thealliance betweenNidaa Tounes and Ennahdha tosupport thegovernment incaseof difficulties orfailure. But one of The coalition is presented as a guarantee of political stability because it forces the ND. it isconsistent with thetransaction betweenthetwo parties intheframework of referred toas“unnatural,” isnotthat surprising ifwetake into account thefactthat training andemployment) andthreesecretaries of state. Thiscoalition, often during avote of confidence, Ennahdhahas one ministerial position (vocational second proposal (thecurrent government), which obtainedamajority of 166votes Ennahdha or otherallied parties (specifically ), wasrejected. In the the headof thegovernment, Habib Essid,which didnotinclude any membersof to live with theIslamists. Thecomposition of thefirst government proposed by campaign on thepromise that it would remove Ennahdhafrom power, today has Without a parliamentary majority, Nidaa Tounes, which had built its electoral of atotal of 217 seats). Today it holds 69 seats in the parliament compared with 86 for Nidaa Tounes (out and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 6 “the impure effects of connivance.” the newdemocrats strengthenedtheconsolidation of democracyinwhat hecalls cases of Spain andPortugal, how negotiation betweenfigures of theoldregimeand constitute the premises of a break from democracy. Guy Hermet hasshown, in the as such, does notnecessarily reflect areturn of theoldregime;neither does it No. 50 (Summer 1990), p. 283. p. 1990), (Summer No. 50 may notbeimmediate. here, asspecified byDobry, asaservice renderedinexpectation of reciprocity which that thesetwo nominations weretheresult of acollusive transaction, understood Ennahdha criticises thefactthat it wasnotconsulted inthereshuffle, itispossible union denies any relationship or that influence wasusedinthisnomination, and is now included inthelistof governors, as isanactivist from UGTT. Although the démocratie. Mélanges offerts à Guy à Hermet offerts Mélanges démocratie. de la recherche Ala (ed.), Santiso Javier in démocratiques”, systèmes des légitimation dela l’analyse 10 9 a former RCD the terror attacks inSousse,theseconcerns werereinforced bythenomination of of theanti-terror law andthedeclaration of thestate of emergencywhich followed being felt, especially bythepolitical classandcivil society. After thepromulgation and democracy. Fears of areturntothedictatorship practices of theBenAli eraare judged bytheopposition againstthetwo registersmentioned above: social justice Actions bythegovernment andbythepresidencyof theRepublic areassessedand 1.2 Start of ade-legitimacy? the political elite. economic andfinancial reconciliation, currently asource of disagreement among This wasthecasefor example inthemovement of governors andthedraftlaw on potential for mobilisation andnegotiation, andUTICA with its lobbying strength. in thegameof support of andopposition togovernment action: UGTT with its Republic, theinterventions byandreactions of thesetwo institutions arecrucial For themaindecisions taken bythecurrent government or thepresidency of the delicate situation hascreated acertainpermeability betweendifferent arenas. been furtherreinforced inthecontext of economic andsocial crisis.Thiscurrent kept theirpositions asinfluential players inthepolitical arena,positions which have UGTT andUTICA, bothhaving gainedstrengthfrom thenegotiations of theND, and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 12 11 party in power. in party proposed draft law on economic andfinancial reconciliation, government. Especially regardingtiming,thesenominations coincide with the However, such deals damagethedemocratic credibility andlegitimacy of the aimed specifically at reinforcing collusive relationships.

(Democratic Constitutional Rally) – formerly the Rally) the –formerly Constitutional (Democratic Démocratique Constitutionnel Rassemblement Michel Dobry, “Valeurs, croyances et transactions collusives. Notes pour une réorientation de réorientation une Notes pour collusives. transactions et croyances Dobry, “Valeurs, Michel Projet de loi organique portant mesures exceptionnelles relatives relatives exceptionnelles Bill No. de loi mesures 49 of organique 16 July Projet portant 2015: Guy Hermet, “La démocratisation à l’amiable, de l’Espagne à la Pologne”, Commentaire in àla del’Espagne àl’amiable, démocratisation “La Hermet, Guy 9 memberasgovernor inthelatest governors’ reshuffle. Thischoice, 11 It isananticipation of support byUGTT andEnnahdha 10 , Paris, Karthala, 2002, p. 103-120. p. 2002, Karthala, , Paris, Ontheotherhand,agovernor from Ennahdha 12 anotherthorny , Vol. 13, , Vol. 13, IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 7 already expressedtheirrejection of thisdraftlaw. have not yet been made public. made been not yet have 2015, http://www.leaders.com.tn/article/17852. 2015, be outdated given theriskstaken at thepolitical level for such anamnesty. example, considers that thepredictions regardingeconomic repercussions might economy (intheshort andmedium term).TheTunisianeconomist Hédi Sraieb, for expressed serious doubts about theexpectedeffect of thereconciliation on the stability of theregime.As such, it should benotedthat many economists have This reactivation of theeconomy should, asaknock-on effect, contribute tothe economy” (Article 1of thedraftlaw). That is,at least officially, thejustification. adequate environment encouraging investment andpromoting thenational domestic investments, but also foreign ones, thankstotheestablishment of “an by allowing therestitution of 5billion dinars(2.6billion dollars) andfavouring represented bythenidaists, ismeant togive anewpushtotheTunisianeconomy reposition itself intheeconomic andpolitical arena,andthenewpolitical elite transaction, asdefinedbyDobry, betweenaneconomic elite which istryingto the government or thirtydeputies (Organic Law No. 14of 18April 2014 of the parties qualified to do so,either thepresident of the Republic, the head of des projets de lois, http://www.legislation-securite.tn/fr/node/33668. de lois, projets des 15 14 13 docs/55d3497212bdaa20aa5b44f8. Full text in French: http://wp.me/p1kxVH-26m. domaines économique financier et les dans réconciliation à la grant temporary authority for thecontrol of constitutionality of draftlaws constitutionality of thisdraftlaw. Aconstitutional motion ispossible, however, to is notyet operational intheabsenceof aConstitutional Court torule on the President BejiCaidEssebsitook advantage of thefactthat thebalance of powers funds”. Article 7concerns businessmen, for violations related tofinancial embezzlement andmisappropriation of public stay all proceedings, judgments andsentences issued on employees of theState were involved inthedealings of theoldregime.Article 2of thedraftlaw states, “to by President BejiCaidEssebsiaimstoally tohiscause theeconomic elite who From thepoint of view of thestrategic play of theactors, thisdraftlaw proposed issue which againexposestheprecarious nature of political stability. and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 17 16 contrôle de la constitutionnalité des projets de loi, IPCCPL). deloi, projets des constitutionnalité contrôle dela of 24December2013toestablishandorganise transitional justice. the constitution. Thedraft law states in factthecancellation of theBasic Law No. 53 removed from thetransitional justice process of which it isincharge invirtue of ministries andamemberof theTruth andDignity authority. Thelatter isthus procedures infront of anadhoccommission madeup of representatives of the legislation-securite.tn/fr/node/32961.

Loi organique relative à la création de l’instance provisoire du contrôle de la constitutionnalité constitutionnalité du contrôle dela provisoire del’instance création àla relative organique Loi Hédi Sraieb, “Loi de réconciliation? …ou loi d’amnistie fiscale et pénale?”,in Leaders et fiscale …ou loi d’amnistie deréconciliation? “Loi Sraieb, Hédi Provisional Commission to Review the Constitutionality of Draft Laws (Instance provisoire de provisoire (Instance Laws of Draft Constitutionality the to Review Commission Provisional Thirty-nine businessmen are supposed to be the beneficiaries of this amnesty but their names names their but amnesty this of beneficiaries the to be supposed are businessmen Thirty-nine Loi organique relative à l’attribution et l’organisation de la justice transitionnelle, http://www. transitionnelle, justice dela l’organisation et àl’attribution relative organique Loi 13 who could benefit from theamnesty , http://majles.marsad.tn/2014/fr/ , 14 Thiscollusive 17 ), who have , 1 September , 1September 16 15 toone IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 8 in Tuniscopein actualites_7_9_D910. quick national reconciliation andfor aone-year moratorium on strikes. representatives of theprivate sector undertheleadership of UTICA, calling for a UTICA inturnsupports this draft law, inconjunction with astatement bythe libre of thegovernment coalition, andof theFree Patriotic Union (Union patriotique also rely on the vote of the Afek Tounes bloc (8 seats), another party that is a member 18 September 2015. block theadoption of thisdraftlaw. Thecoalition organised amobilisation on 12 and Democratic Alliance Party) launched acoordination committee which aimsto hand, five parties (Jomhouri, Ettakattol, People’s Movement, Democratic Current broke out inthe regions, under the direction of the Popular Front. On the other by thepolice, who usedteargastodispersethecrowds. Multiple demonstrations “I will not forgive” took place on 1 September 2015 in Tunis and was confronted A protest/demonstration againstthelaw on reconciliation, employing theslogan street takes it upon itself todo so.” which recycles corruption. It should bepulled out in apacific mannerbefore the infringe thestate of emergency andtodemonstrate inthestreetsagainstthislaw the President isthreatening thesecurity of the country asheispushingpeople to of thePopular Front, Mr Mongi Rahoui, saidon this matter: “Through thisdraft, resource available toit given thecurrent power balance within theARP. Thedeputy national dialogue, andtheidentity it built, tocall once againon the street,theonly street. ThePopular Front isusingtheresources it gathered, especially during the used bythepolitical parties, namely thePopular Front, tocontest this draftlaw: the fraudulent practices andcorruption. What isworthy of attention hereistheresource a section of thepolitical elite andcivil society isbasedon afear of thereturnof legitimacy of the political authorities. In fact, the opposition to this draft law from the withdrawal of widesupport which could lead totheerosion of belief inthe legitimisation of thecurrent government intheshort term,understoodhere as The consequences at thepolitical andsocial levels indicate thebeginningof ade- rejecting it fully isasking for amendments to be brought toit. of beingadopted bytheARP, ifweinclude Ennahdha’s support, who without this draftlaw despite thetensions it hasgenerated. Thedraftlaw hasagood chance The presidencyof theRepublic, through its spokesperson, isrefusingtowithdraw and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 20 19 economique. realites.com.tn/2015/08/ghannouchi-soutient-entierement-le-projet-de-loi-de-reconciliation- économique”, Réalités in deloi le projet entièrement deréconciliation soutient “Ghannouchi Hassen, Ben law. Hajer See draft for this support movement’s his stated UTICA, UTICA,

In an interview on the radio station Shems FM, Rached Ghannouchi, chairman of Ennahdha, of Ennahdha, chairman Ghannouchi, Rached FM, Shems station radio on the interview an In “Mongi Rahoui : Le Président menace la sûreté du pays par le projet de loi sur la réconciliation”, la deloi le projet sur par du pays sûreté la menace Président : Le Rahoui “Mongi , UPL)(16seats). Signature d’une déclaration du secteur privé du secteur d’une déclaration Signature , 15 July 2015, http://mai.tuniscope.com/article/74100. July 2015, , 15 20 , 10 July 2015, http://www.utica.org.tn/Fr/ , 10 July 2015, , 26 August 2015, http://www. 2015, August , 26 18 Thepresident can 19 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI 9 apparatus? It appears tousthat, inthisspecific case, overcoming theeconomic of partof theeconomic elite, constitute athreat tothe performance of thestate long-drawn-out transitional justice process, andhencetheconfirmed exclusion Tunisian civil society and, ultimately the question becomes: towhat extent does a and Dignity Commission (Instance Vérité etDignité, IVD)isanimportant issue for financial reconciliation. The transitional justice process inthehands of the Truth unnoticed incomparison totheviolent reactions sparked bytheeconomic and same canhardly be saidfor thepolitical class.Strangely enough, thiselection went having hadnochoice beyond conformism underanauthoritarian regime, but the economic andfinancial reconciliation. Indeed, theeconomic elite canbeseenas member asagovernor isamuch more clumsy decision thantheproject of rejection of thepolitical players of theoldregime, theelection of aformer RCD Tunisian context, characterised during thetransition phasebyasystematic clean cuts with thepastaswell aspolitical fights. Taking into consideration the In theTunisiancase,on thecontrary, thegovernment must deal with calls for reach aconsensus andthankstosignificant popular support. agreements wasfinally acceptedbecause of thewillingness of thepolitical classto to democracy. Themuch criticised economic stabilisation planof theMoncloa are clear illustrations of theimportance of continuity inany process of transition agreements, signed byall theSpanish political parties on 25and26 October 1977, Minister Adolfo Suarez, anex-ministerof the unique ruling party. TheMoncloa led byKingJuan Carlos, designated by Franco himself ashissuccessor, andPrime pointed out earlier, the Spanish transition isagood example inthesensethat it was not initself constitute a threat to the democratic consolidation process. As we calling back people politically or economically linked to the previous regime does Introducing political measuresthat ignore theprocess of transitional justice by under thegovernment of theTroika. UGTT hasrefrainedfrom any frontal positions on thepolitical level, aswasthecase Other thansectoral union concerns, such astheelementary schoolteachers’strike, regarding thisissue islimited tocondemning the repression of social movements. UGTT endedup rejectingit yet without calling on thestreet.Its current position a consensual position according towhich thedraftlaw should only beamended, UGTT will refrain from calling for collective mobilisations as a sign of protest. After of whether or not the union will accept the draft law, but a question of finding out if largely dependon thedegreeof support it receives from UGTT. It isnotaquestion demonstrations againstthedraftlaw on reconciliation leading toasocial crisiswill by agovernment which tries tomuzzle theopposition. Thelikelihood of the tensions even more and thus reinforce thebelief that democracyisthreatened Thus, the coercive management of social movements by the State may inflame and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 21 rfsp.1979.418593. politique de science française

Revue Revue in équivoques”, ses et le consensus post-franquiste: “L’Espagne Jaillardone, Edith , Vol. 29, No. 297, p. 2(1979), http://www.dx.doi.org/10.3406/ 21 10 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI tn/bct/siteprod/indicateurs.jsp. bct.gov.tn/bct/siteprod/documents/Conjoncture_ang.pdf. ar_fr.pdf. http://www.ins.nat.tn/communiques/Note_emploi_T1_2015_ July 2015, P0201, statistique Bulletin 23 22 the wagebill andreducing ill-targeted subsidies. Therecent declineinoil prices spending, which includes spendingfor social safety nets,through controlling public expenditures byincreasing growth-supporting investments andsocial spending, considering that thecountry must “[a]chieve abettercomposition of Monetary Fund (IMF). The latter recommends for Tunisia a reduction of public Tunisian economy asrecommended bytheWorld BankandtheInternational as thecomplementary financelaw tendtowards agreater liberalisation of the by theheadof thegovernment, Habib Essid,during hisspeechat theARP aswell is managingtheeconomic crisison aday-to-day basis.Theprogramme announced For now, intheabsenceof afive-year development plan for 2016-20, the government and 20.8percent for men), 15 percent that reaches30percent for university graduates (39percent for women main difficulties facingthecurrent government. With anunemployment rate of The economic crisisTunisiahasbeenundergoing inrecent years isone of the 2. Recession, economic policy andthethreat of social crisis contradictions. have beenunable todefend it, creating theimageof apartyweakened byits own shown themselves divided on theissue andthosewho areconvinced bythisoption convincing about therelevance of thisdecision. Indeed, Nidaa Tounes MPs have (which isnotguaranteed, according toeconomists) andthegovernment must be For thistohappen, thereconciliation must have adecisive economic impact crisis isanabsolute precondition for thelegitimacy andauthority of theState. and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 25 24 forecast) down for thesecond timethisyear (from 1.7to0.7percent vsthe3percent initially Comparative Politics Comparative development. state that thechancesof survival of ademocracydependon its capacity tocreate consolidation. Thisis even more important asmostspecialists inconsolidology to what extent it constitutes a threat to political stability and thus democratic The question now ishow theEssidgovernment will managethissituation and phase aswell astheexistingsecurity threats. Ben Ali regime,it hasbeendeepenedbythepolitical instability of thetransition enter into aperiod of technical recession. If theeconomic crisisisalegacy of the

Stephen Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, “The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions”, in in Transitions”, Economy of Democratic Political “The Kaufman, R. Robert and Haggard Stephen Main Economic Indicators Economic of Main Tunisia, Bank Central See of 31 JulyAs 2015. National Institute of Statistics, 2015 Note sur l’enquête sur l’emploi nationale 1er trimestre The Economic Situation Periodical Situation Economic of The Tunisia, Bank Central 24 with negative growth outlook bytheendof theyear, Tunisiaisbound to 25 , Vol. 29, No. 3 (April 1997), p. 263-283. p. , Vol. 1997), 29, No. 3(April 22 arate of inflation of 5.3percent, , No. (July 108 7, p. 2015), http://www. 23 agrowth rate revised , http://www.bct.gov. , , 11 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI reforms which must be made, especially at the level of the subsidies fund, The difficulty lies primarily instriking the balance that mustbe foundbetween the finance law for 2015. suggest more short-term solutions such astheones specified inthecomplementary delayed. In any case,theyarelate incoming andthegeneral orientation seemsto be hard to control in this exact context, and their implementation will likely be notes/tunisia.htm. tn/Fr/presentation-de-la-caisse-generale-de-compensation_11_32. de compensation Générale caisse de la Présentation of Trade, Ministry No. 10/2008. circular and No. 06/2008 circular See marketing). and processing (production, circuits on control system asystematic establishing and activities competitive in sector private the involving fund, subsidies of the charges the reducing system, subsidies up the at cleaning aimed on 4July implemented reform 2003 Astructural increases. price the overcoming and 27 26 provide anopportunity tocomplete subsidy reforms.” and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 29 28 University Press, 1995. Press, University Democracy Sustainable al., et Przeworski 45-59;p. Adam tunisien juillet 2015 juillet tunisien place inMay, June andJuly 2015were,respectively, 317,287and272. in recent months inTunisia. As anexample, thenumber of social actions taking impossible to list the number of strikes and demonstrations which have taken place the explosion of social movements, especially inthepublic sector. It would be The questioning of thelegitimacy of thegovernment isalready beingfelt through destabilising factor. the long term,for now, inanunstable economic environment, represent astrong and reduction of regional disparities. Liberal policies, without aclear vision for expectations for social justice, improvement of living conditions, employment The transition period was also accompanied by a noticeable increase in citizens’ of the regime, the main demands were for social justice and socio-political rights. case. before thetransition or aftertheconsolidation seemsimportant for theTunisian liberalisation does notthreaten democratic consolidation when it occurseither democratic transition. Thetheory of Adam Przeworski according towhich economic consolidation process, despite thefactthat economic liberalisation preceded by thegovernment andimposed byits debtors would thus beanobstacle inthe of democracy(asperceived bythecitizens). Theliberal economic policies adopted The reduction of theredistribution capacity of theState isathreat tothelegitimacy order nottoincreasefurtherthepublic’s ire,on theother. one hand,andtheintegration of thesocial dimension intheeconomic policies in

IMF, IMF,

The subsidies system aims at controlling the prices of commodities, including grain products, products, grain including of commodities, prices the at controlling aims system subsidies The Rapport de l’observatoire social social de l’observatoire Rapport (FTDES), sociaux et economiques droits les pour tunisien Forum Journal of Democracy of Journal Fallacy”, in Neoliberal “The Przeworski, Adam 28 Tunisia Program Note In theuprisings of December2010andJanuary 2011, which led tothefall , http://ftdes.net/2015/08/rapport-de-lobservatoire-social-tunisien-juillet-2015. , , updated 3 April 2015, https://www.imf.org/external/np/country/ 2015, 3April , updated , Cambridge and New York, New and Cambridge , Cambridge 26 Sectoral reforms seemto , http://www.commerce.gov., , Vol. No. 3, 3(July 1992), 29 27 on the 12 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI africanmanager.com/site_eng/tunisia-pm-announces-two-year-social-truce. 30 various attacks targetingsoldiers andsecurity forces. Museum inMarch 2015,theattack inSousseJune of thesameyear, aswell as 2015 hasseenmany terrorist attacks claimedbyDa’esh: theattack on theBardo Currently one of themainfactors for instability istheissue of security. Effectively, temptation 3. Terrorism andinsecurity: incompetence and authoritarian chances of de-sectoralisation areminimal. For now, thesesocial movements remainsectoral andlackvisibility, andthe and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 32 31 between the government, UGTT and UTICA establishing social peace until 2017. the chief of government announcedthat anagreement will soon beconcluded considers social movements dangerous to economic development. On this basis, the partisanorganisations intheeyes of public opinion. Besides,thegovernment come tofruition andquickly lost momentum because of theloss of legitimacy by Republic) anddemonstrations wereorganised all over Tunisia.But it wasunable to by political players from theopposition (Popular Current andtheCongress for the democratic governance (transparency).Thissocial movement wasinfactrecovered discovery of anoil well inadelegation of theTunisiansouth) toraiseanissue of the energyproblem andits corollary (theredistribution of wealth, raisedbythe Similarly, thesocial movement “where’s theoil?” saw attempts aimingtotranscend battle betweentheministryinchargeandteachers’union, theyremainblocked. strikes carried out byelementary schoolteachersrequesting pay rises.Despite the the economy would beegregious. of thecollusive transaction, which may lead toadeadlock whose consequences for its political andeconomic weight for positioning gains,isinitself asign of erosion salaries with theunion. Thefierce battle between UGTT andUTICA, each one using of a general strike in the private sector if UTICA refused to start negotiations on players give them sense, and make them the heart of their own mobilisation. own of their heart the them make and sense, them give players groups; other social central to other become They issues/questions. the of specificities sectoral Mail Online agreement with thegovernment on 22September2015, to renewits bureau areapproaching. After thesignature of thepublic sector chance of appearing toits grassroots constituency ascompromised, aselections of more strategic political issues. Rooted insectoral topics, UGTT cannottake the interests, although they were downplayed during the national dialogue in favour But thisshould notdistractusfrom thefactthat UTICA andUGTT still have diverging foreign anddomestic investment. This agreement implies thereduction of social movements inorder toencourage

African Manager African in truce”, social two-year PM announces “Tunisia: Daily Daily hike”, wage in sector on deal public sign union UGTT government, “Tunisian Amara, Tarek By “de-sectoralisation” we mean, following Dobry, an “opening of arenas” which removes the the removes which of arenas” “opening Dobry, an following mean, we “de-sectoralisation” By , 22 September 2015, http://dailym.ai/1QWpreY. 2015, September , 22 30 Such isthecase,for example, of the , 14 September 2015, http:// 2015, , 14 September 32 UGTT usedthethreat 31

13 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI for Nidaa Tounes wastherestoration of theprestige of theState andits power. credibility of thegovernment insofar asthemainexpectation of thosewho voted In addition, theabsenceof apublic policy for security may seriously weaken the functioning of theministryaswell asits coordination with thearmy. firmness bypointing thefinger atthesocial movements. to explainhisreasons for declaringastate of emergencytheheadof state showed Guardian of emergencyisperceived bytheopposition asaway toput pressure on those security systemandcentres of power. Thejustification of repression viathestate The repression of social movements can only increase defiance towards the on which theopposition basesits speechandstrategy todelegitimise power. lang=fr. east-north-africa/north-africa/tunisia/161-reform-and-security-strategy-in-tunisia.aspx?alt_ Reports Africa North to orient electoral choices for the 2014 elections (27 percent). elections 2014 for the choices to electoral orient of reasons top list at of the the comes State of the prestige of the restoration the 2014, September in “surpris” d’un attentat sur une plage “surpris” and theemergingelites of thesouth andtheinterior. to theanti-power andanti-police speechadopted bytheimpoverished populations rights issupported bytheestablishedelites (TunisandtheSahel),who areopposed Group, the“security necessity” topause thedevelopment of democracyandhuman caciques of theoldregime.” As highlighted inareport bytheInternational Crisis over thisissue seemtohave furtherintensified thepolarisation of “democrats vs their jobandweaken theState. Thesecurity threat andthemanagement of power fact presented asdestabilising forces that prevent thesecurity forces from doing 35 34 33 revolution. different failed reforms due tothepolarisation andpartisancompetition sincethe will remainadifficult taskas long astheMinistry of Interior isweakened bythe security system.It appears that theimplementation of reforms insecurity matters The attacks have taken placeinanenvironment marked bytheweaknessof the and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 38 37 36 of intelligence.” the general department of specialized affairs,animportant section on the level of Interior “led to the freezing of the activities of many departments reporting to of thePolice) andtheforced retirement of high-ranking officials oftheMinistry on 1stJuly.” surprised by this attack and that “the system for protection wassupposed to start Following theSousseattack inJune 2015,BejiCaidEssebsideclaredthat hewas

The The in attack”, terrorist following of emergency state declares president “Tunisia’s Byrne, Eilen International Crisis Group, “Réforme et stratégie sécuritaire en Tunisie”, en and Middle ICG in East sécuritaire stratégie et Group, “Réforme Crisis International According to a survey of 1,700 young persons carried out by the National Observatory for Youth Observatory National out the by carried persons young of 1,700 to asurvey According Béji Caïd Essebsi, Essebsi, Caïd Béji 1: Europe station radio to the given Republic, of the president of the Interview International Crisis Group, “Réforme et stratégie sécuritaire en Tunisie”, en 16. p. cit., sécuritaire stratégie et Group, “Réforme Crisis International Ibid., p. 5. p. Ibid., , 4 July 2015, http://gu.com/p/4acth/stw., 4July 2015, 33 36 The dismantlement of the “police of the police” (Inspectorate General Paradoxically, incontrast tothisadmission of weakness,inhis speech 34 , No. 161 (23 July 2015), p. 12, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle- , No. 12, 161 p. July (23 2015), Thissituation makes it difficult to control the operations and , 30 June 2015, http://eur1.fr/nABTKNg. June 2015, , 30 38 Thelatter isthediscourse 37 Social demands arein 35

14 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI September 2015, http://www.espacemanager.com/node/42373. 2015, September des-imams,519,58939,3. http://www.businessnews.com.tn/nidaa-tounes--ennahdha--la-guerre-froide- 2015, September 15 devalued andthe State ismanaging social movements inacoercive manner, institutional resources versus collective action. At themoment, thesecond is What isat play today istheconfrontation between two typesof resources: of collective action. solutions proposed to public opinion are each time summed up in a condemnation the regime. Whether it is the economic stimulus or the anti-terror fight, the dictatorial practices contributes tothestrengtheningof critical positions towards impunity (thedraftlaw on economic andfinancial reconciliation) or reproducing (the anti-terror law, thestate of emergency)andasfavouring corruption and accumulation of political decisions that areinterpreted andperceived asrepressive recession poses a real threat of destabilisation tothecurrent government. The The shadow of an intense social and political crisis on a backdrop of economic Conclusion dismissal of theimamof (Sidi Lakhmimosque) himself thwarted byhisown government inhisproject tofight radical Islam. The However, theminister of Religious Affairs, who revoked many imams, found removal of radical imamsandtheprohibition of Eidprayer outside themosques. Affairs, which aftertheSousse attack dictated theclosing of 42mosques, the terrorism, the most notable decisions have come from the Ministry of Religious When it comes tosocial policies aimingat reducing theunderlying roots of democracy, thefunctioning of representative democracy. opposition who, via the systematic call on the street, questions, in the name of the confrontation betweenaState which istryingtoaffirm its authority andan the Coordination Committee on 12September2015isastrong illustration of the banningof organised demonstrations respectively bythePopular Front and the old one. The stand-off between the government andthe opposition around the streetstosave ademocracythreatened byaregime that only wants torevive their chancesfor collective mobilisation andblocking theirinclination tooccupy who seethemselves asthe“defenders of democracy”byreducing toaminimum and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia 40 39 those who voted for thispartywith thehope toexclude Islamists from power. between Nidaa Tounes andEnnahdhatherefore comes at thecostof betrayal of under pressurefrom theheadof government. Maintaining thecollusive relations minister of Religious Affairs found himselfthus forced tosuspendhisdecision himself denouncedthecampaign asa“purge”likely toreinforce terrorism. of government following protests from Ennahdha.Indeed, Rached Ghannouchi

Myriam Ben Zineb, “Nidaa Tounes-Ennahdha : La guerre froide des imams”, in Business in imams”, des froide News guerre :La Tounes-Ennahdha “Nidaa Zineb, Ben Myriam “Ridha Jaouadi remonte sur ‘son minbar’ et savoure sa victoire”, in EspaceManager in victoire”, sa savoure et ‘son minbar’ remonte Jaouadi sur “Ridha 39 wasrejectedbythehead , 18 , 18 40 The , 15 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI conflicts. Tounes, which tooclosely resembles acatch-all partystruggling with internal economic andsecurity reforms andaconsolidation of thepartyranks of Nidaa government, but thisshould go handinwith arapid implementation of the regime. The stability of theserelations isstill thesafest way tosecurea stable is thecaseinfaceof UGTT), which might increasepopular ireanddiscredit by thecaseof thedismissal of imams)or isseen asanadmission of weakness(as important political support isoften done at theexpenseof compromise (asshown risk of social subversion. Moreover, maintaining collusive relations that provide economic andsecurity sectors while avoiding theeffects of an already maximal They must undertake major reforms andmake difficult decisions inthepolitical, In short, thepresident of theRepublic andthegovernment areon thebackfoot. government. that wemight findourselves inasituation where weriska loss of legitimacy of the within the ARP) and the other through its ability to contain social contestation – by bothkey players, EnnahdhaandUGTT –one at thepolitical level (vote on laws Although the government is highly contested, it is only in case of loss of support political arenaandtheunion arena). between theState and UGTT (thus maintaining thedifferentiation betweenthe but thispower balance isdependent on thestability of thecollusive relationship and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia Updated 16October2015 16 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI (July 1992),p. 45-59 Adam Przeworski, “TheNeoliberal Fallacy”, inJournal of Democracy,Vol. 3,No. 3 Vol. 7,No. 2(1996),p.34-51 Guillermo O’Donnell, “Illusions about Consolidation”, inJournal of Democracy , Hopkins University Press,1996 Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe, Baltimore, Johns Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, dx.doi.org/10.3406/rfsp.1979.418593 Revue française de science politique, Vol. 29,No. 2(1979),p.283-312, http://www. Edith Jaillardone, “L’Espagne post-franquiste:le consensus etseséquivoques”, in security-strategy-in-tunisia.aspx?alt_lang=fr org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/tunisia/161-reform-and- Middle Eastand North Africa Reports, No. 161(23July 2015),http://www.crisisgroup. International CrisisGroup, “Réforme etstratégie sécuritaire enTunisie”, inICG np/country/notes/tunisia.htm IMF, Commentaire, Vol. 13,No. 50(Summer 1990),p.279-286 Guy Hermet, “La démocratisation àl’amiable, del’EspagneàlaPologne”, in Transitions”, inComparative Politics, Vol. 29,No. 3(April 1997),p.263-283 Stephen HaggardandRobert R.Kaufman, “The Political Economy of Democratic lobservatoire-social-tunisien-juillet-2015 l’observatoire social tunisien juillet 2015, http://ftdes.net/2015/08/rapport-de- Forum tunisien pourles droits economiques etsociaux (FTDES), Rapport de Karthala, 2002,p.103-120 Santiso (ed.), réorientation del’analyse delalégitimation dessystèmesdémocratiques”, inJavier Michel Dobry, “Valeurs, croyances ettransactions collusives. Notes pourune multisectorielles, Paris, PressesdelaFNSP, 1986 Michel Dobry, Sociologie des crisespolitiques. Ladynamique des mobilisations conflits.revues.org/443 fluidité politique”, inCultures &Conflits, No. 12(Winter 1993),p.105-140, http:// Richard Banegas,“Lestransitions démocratiques: mobilisations collectives et References and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia Tunisia Program Note, updated 3 April 2015, https://www.imf.org/external/ A larecherchede ladémocratie. Mélanges offerts à Guy Hermet, Paris, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. 17 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI utica.org.tn/Fr/actualites_7_9_D910 UTICA, legislation-securite.tn/fr/node/33668 provisoire du contrôle de la constitutionnalité des projets de lois, http://www. Tunisia, Law No. 14 of 18 April 2014: node/32961 l’organisation de la justice transitionnelle, http://www.legislation-securite.tn/fr/ Tunisia, Law No. 53of 24December2013:Loi organique relative àl’attribution et text inFrench: http://wp.me/p1kxVH-26m financier, http://majles.marsad.tn/2014/fr/docs/55d3497212bdaa20aa5b44f8. Full exceptionnelles relatives àlaréconciliation dans les domaines économique et Tunisia, Bill No. 49of 16July 2015:Projet de loi organique portant mesures org/node/358 Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 2 (April 2012), p. 89-103, http://www.journalofdemocracy. Alfred Stepan,“Tunisia’s transition andthetwintolerations”, inJournal of 1 September2015,http://www.leaders.com.tn/article/17852 Hédi Sraieb, “Loi deréconciliation? …ouloi d’amnistie fiscale etpénale?”, in Leaders, Cambridge University Press,1995 Adam Przeworski etal., Sustainable Democracy , Cambridge andNew York, and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia Signature d’une déclaration du secteur privé, 10July 2015,http://www. Loi organique relative à la création de l’instance 18 IAI WORKING PAPERS 15 | 41 - OCTOBER 2015 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-98650-65-1 © 2015 IAI Latest IAIWORKING PAPERS and theRelated Short- toMedium-Term Scenarios Social, Economic andPolitical Dynamics inTunisia www.iai.it [email protected] F +39 T +39 Via Angelo Brunetti, 9-I-00186 Rome, Italy and otherpapers’ series related toIAIresearch projects. (AffarInternazionali), two series of research papers (QuaderniIAIand Research Papers) publishes anEnglish-language quarterly (TheInternational Spectator), anonline webzine and theMiddle East;defence economy andpolicy; andtransatlantic relations. TheIAI in the global economy and internationalisation processes in Italy; the Mediterranean research sectors are:European institutions andpolicies; Italian foreign policy; trends and abroad andisamemberof various international networks. More specifically, themain that end,it cooperates with otherresearch institutes, universities andfoundations inItaly and disseminate knowledge through research studies, conferences andpublications. To economy andinternational security. 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