Classification of the Dynamics of Water Quality Changes in the Elbe River Basin
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J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 53, 2005, 4, 205–218 CLASSIFICATION OF THE DYNAMICS OF WATER QUALITY CHANGES IN THE ELBE RIVER BASIN JAKUB LANGHAMMER Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague 2, Czech Republic; mailto: [email protected] With regard to the water quality changes, the area of the Czech part of the Elbe River basin is extraordinarily dynamic. In the 20th century it experienced an enormous increase of load of pollution. Since the beginning of the 1990´s due to the political and economical changes we have witnessed a particularly intensive decrease in the emission volume and a related increase in water quality of watercourses. However, positive changes in the pollution load balance have occurred mainly in the biggest watercourses and these changes have not been accompanied by similar development in the whole river system. Using a newly created classification methodology the basic models of dynamics of water quality changes in the Elbe River basin have been derived. Based on GIS geostatistical analysis, regions with analogous water quality development trends have been defined for selected parameters and critical areas have been identified. It has become apparent that the prevailing part of the Elbe River basin has been experiencing a gradual increase in pollution. In addition, after a previous decrease, a number of watercourses experienced a recurrence of the increase in load. These areas are priorities for further development and the control of surface water protection against pollution. KEY WORDS: Hydrology, Water quality, Pollution, Elbe, GIS, Geostatistical analysis, Modelling. Jakub Langhammer: KLASIFIKACE DYNAMIKY ZMĚN KVALITY VODY V POVODÍ LABE. Vodo- hosp. Čas., 53, 2005, 4; 17 lit., 7 obr., 1 tab. Oblast české části povodí Labe je z hlediska změn kvality vody mimořádně dynamická. Díky intenziv- nímu vývoji antropogenních aktivit a společenským změnám zaznamenala v průběhu 20. století nejprve enormní nárůst zátěže znečištěním, od počátku 90. let jsme naopak svědky mimořádně intenzivního snížení objemu emisí a souvisejícího zvyšování jakosti vody v tocích. Pozitivní změny v látkové bilanci jsou však soustředěny především na největší toky – Labe a Vltavu a nejsou doprovázeny obdobným vývojem v celém povodí. Pomocí nově vytvořené metodiky klasifikace vývoje kvality vody prezentované v článku byly na zák- ladě geostatistické analýzy sestaveny základní modely časové dynamiky změn kvality vody v povodí Labe. Pro jednotlivé ukazatele byly na základě analýzy v prostředí GIS vymezeny regiony s analogickými trendy vývoje kvality povrchových vod a identifikovány kritické oblasti. Ukazuje se, že přes pozitivní vývoj ja- kosti vody v hlavních sídelních a průmyslových regionech v 90. letech převažující část povodí Labe stále zaznamenává v jednotlivých ukazatelích postupný nárůst znečištění, na řadě toků navíc po předchozím poklesu dochází k opětovnému nárůstu zátěže. Tyto oblasti představují prioritu pro další rozvoj a řízení ochrany povrchových vod před znečištěním. KLÍČOVÁ SLOVA: hydrologie, kvalita vody, znečištění, Labe, GIS, geostatistická analýza, modelování. 1. Introduction and objectives the quality of water in Czech watercourses was sufficient for the majority of regular activities, During the 20th century, several significant mainly in the period after the World War II, the changes in surface water quality in European rivers situation has changed radically due to both the in- occurred including the watercourses in the Elbe dustrial development and insufficient consideration River basin. While at the beginning of the century, of the environment. The water importance was 205 J. Langhammer gradually reduced to a raw material and rivers were 2. Material and methods gradually forced to absorb more and more waste. The same process could have been seen in most of Within the research project, the author has de- the developed countries. On the worldwide basis, signed a new method for the classification of the therefore, the decades of the 60s and 70s represent dynamics of water quality changes for the purpose periods of the highest level of water pollution that of determining the spatial trends in water quality had been practically uncontrolled until this time. changes. The methodology is based on the combi- Since the 70s, Western Europe and North America nation of methods of geostatistical and spatial have gradually started to seek solutions for the most analysis in the GIS environment. The research is urgent problems related to the pollution of water- stemming from the previous analyses of water qual- courses (De Wit, 1999, EEA, 2002). In the Czech ity changes in the Elbe watercourse and its river Republic, things have changed only after the politi- basin where methods of mathematical modelling cal changes in the year 1989. During one decade, and spatial analysis were applied (Langhammer, there was a significant decrease in pollution of our 2000, 2004a). The assessment is based on a com- most important watercourses thanks to systematic plete set of water quality profiles observed in the investment in wastewater treatment plants at the Czech part of the Elbe River basin during the as- biggest industrial sources and settlements. Until sessment period 1970–2002 covering the main then, the pollution level had been critical stages of water quality changes. (Langhammer, 2000). In this respect, the first half of the 90s was a turning point - new wastewater 2.1.Assessment methodology treatment plants were put in operation at the biggest direct pollution sources on the Elbe and the Vltava The methodology is based on the application of watercourses. During ten years, the concentrations the geostatistical analysis to the data of long-term of the main balance indicators related to water qual- records concerning the concentrations of selected ity in the Elbe mouth profile decreased to the level water quality indicators. that was in a number of cases even lower than at the The assessment principle consists in the deriving beginning of monitoring in the 60s. This was a con- of the trend slopes of water quality development on sequence of the massive building and the intensifi- all assessed profiles, subsequent identification of cation of wastewater treatment plants at main pollu- related features of the development and their group- tion sources. However, positive changes had not ing into basic models. For this purpose, the meth- occurred in the whole area of the drainage pattern. ods of regression and cluster analyses are applied. When taking a closer look at the dynamics of the The time progressions of annual average concentra- load development related to the whole hydro- tions of selected indicators for individual profiles graphical pattern of the Czech Elbe River basin, we are, at first, divided into homogenous time periods find out that, in a number of watercourses, different corresponding to significant periods of water qual- water quality indicators stagnate or sometimes even ity changes. deteriorate. The classification methodology is summarised in The paper is focused on classification of the dy- Figure 1. With the use of regression analysis, the namics of water quality development in the Elbe guidelines of change trends have been calculated River basin with regard to quality, time and space. for individual main periods of quality development. The objective of the presented research is to define These trend lines are entered into the cluster analy- a methodology that would allow objective differen- sis as source data. The output of clustering repre- tiation of the Elbe River basin into areas with dif- sents groups of profiles with similar dynamics of ferent dynamics and trends associated with water water quality changes in the assessed periods. The quality changes. With the use of this methodology, final data is transported into GIS where it is ana- the classification of particular river basins was car- lysed with regard to the spatial distribution. The ried out in accordance with the identified main mo- calculation is subsequently repeated for all assessed dels of development dynamics and areas with criti- water quality indicators. cal water quality development were defined with the application of individual indicators. 206 Classification of the dynamics of water quality changes in the Elbe River basin Fig. 1. The methodology of the analysis of space water quality changes in the Elbe River basin. Obr. 1. Metodika analýzy prostorových změn kvality vody v povodí Labe. 2.2 Application of the methodology − 1991 – 2000 changes after the year 1989 that to the Elbe River basin reflect both system changes (the construction of wastewater treatment plants at big pollution The information on the average annual concen- sources) and changes of economic and social trations of selected water quality indicators out of conditions (a number of production plants were all profiles of the CHMI pattern within the Elbe closed down, new plants were established, the River basin from the year 1970 to the year 2002 development of settlements, changes in agricul- were used as the enter data (CHMI, 2004, Rieder et ture). al., 2000). For each period, a trend line slope of linear re- The data set was divided into three periods that gression trend was calculated out of the average are crucial with regard to the water quality devel- annual values of concentrations of the main pollu- opment in the Elbe River basin: tion indicators for all profiles. The slope shows the − 1971