Lebanon weighs Europe’s jihadist medical cannabis problem Page 9 Page 17

UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com Issue 170, Year 4 August 19, 2018 EU €2.50 Qatar rushes to Turkey’s aid as Erdogan’s crisis with US deepens ► Doha’s pledge comes as the Turkish-Qatari alliance appears to have tightened.

Mohammed Alkhereiji turned into a nosedive when with Iran despite US efforts to iso- and Thomas Seibert US President Donald Trump an- late Tehran. nounced punitive tariffs on Turk- Erdogan has said Turkey would ish steel and aluminium imports not abide by Trump’s new eco- London/Istanbul on August 10. That move was tied nomic sanctions against Iran. “If to a dispute over the detention of you think relations cannot get any atar has pledged $15 bil- US pastor Andrew Brunson in Tur- worse, think again,” Gonul Tol and lion to prop up Turkey’s key. Engin Polar of the Middle East In- ailing economy at a time stitute in Washington wrote in an Q when Ankara’s ties with analysis. “Iran sanctions will com- the United States have worsened. Kuwaiti government plicate Turkey-US relations even “Turkish-Qatari relations are denied reports in further.” based on solid foundations of true Turkish media of a $1.6 This comes as the Turkish-Qatari To the rescue. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and friendship and solidarity,” Turkish billion bailout of Ankara. alliance appears to have tightened. Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Ankara, on presidential spokesman Ibrahim “We stand by our brothers in Tur- August 15. (Reuters) Kalin posted on Twitter on Au- The Trump administration key,” wrote Sheikh Tamim on Twit- gust 15 in announcing the pledge. threatened Turkey with additional ter following his meeting with Er- er Islamist groups, as well as its Officials in the Gulf remained It came during a meeting between sanctions on August 16 and Trump dogan. ties to Iran, generally viewed as a mute on Turkey’s problems for Turkish President Recep Tayyip accused Ankara of holding Brun- Sheikh Tamim stressed what he destabilising regional force. An- the most part but news of the fall Erdogan and Qatari Emir Sheikh son “hostage.” Writing on Twit- called Turkey’s support for “the kara’s decision to set up a military of the Turkish currency was cele- Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in An- ter, Trump said the United States causes of the [Arab] nation and base in Qatar was interpreted as a brated on social media. The Arabic kara. would “pay nothing for the release Qatar,” a reference to tensions be- threat by some Gulf Arab states. hashtag “the Turkish lira collaps- Qatar went to Turkey’s aid amid of an innocent man” and that his tween Turkey and other states be- Ahead of the Qatari pledge, the es” was trending in Saudi Arabia, one of the biggest financial crises administration was “cutting back cause of Ankara’s pro-Qatari stance Kuwaiti government denied re- the United Arab Emirates and Ku- facing the Erdogan government. on Turkey.” The Erdogan govern- in a dispute between the country ports in Turkish media of a $1.6 bil- wait. The Turkish lira has been in free ment said it would retaliate against and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab lion bailout of Ankara. fall, losing nearly 40% of its value any US action. Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt. The denial came despite Muslim Mohammed Alkhereiji is Gulf against the US dollar this year. Even a quick resolution to the Those countries severed ties Brotherhood supporters in Kuwait, section editor of The Arab Weekly. Market worries over Erdogan’s row over Brunson would likely with Doha in June 2017 over what including clerics and members of Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly increasing control of Turkey’s leave significant tensions in Turk- they claimed was the Qatari gov- parliament, telling Kuwaitis it was correspondent. economy have been a major factor ish-US relations. Like Qatar, Tur- ernment’s support for terrorism, their Islamic duty to support the behind the lira’s downturn, which key has remained on good terms the Muslim Brotherhood and oth- Turkish lira. Pages 2-3 Millions of Muslims converge on Mecca to perform ‘smart haj’

Samar Kadi online services. place with Turjuman, an instant self and the whole Muslim nation.” Under the “Smart Haj” initia- translation app to facilitate com- Pilgrims perform rituals around tive, pilgrims with smartphones munication between pilgrims. the Kaaba and on the Mount Arafat Beirut can download the Asefny app, al- Other ideas included Haj Wallet, plain east of Mecca. The haj ends lowing them to send health reports which would allow pilgrims to pay with Eid al-Adha, a 3-day feast hether pushed in a through their phones and request through their phones for services that starts with the “stoning of the wheelchair or holding help in a medical emergency. The during haj, reducing cases of pick- devil.” a walking stick, Mus- app tracks pilgrims’ locations to pocketing. Eid al-Adha — the “feast of sac- W lims from all over the provide them with services or as- rifice” — includes the slaughter of world converge on the holy city sistance for those with special sheep, with the meat distributed of Mecca to perform the haj, one needs. The 3-day pilgrimage is to Muslims in need. The ritual sym- of the five pillars of Islam that the The ministry also introduced a becoming increasingly bolises Abraham’s willingness to faithful are expected to carry out at new version of the Manasikana app smart, using high-tech sacrifice his son, Ishmael, on the least once in their lifetime. meant to guide pilgrims through applications to help the order of God. Almost 2 million people descend every step of haj, from signing up faithful navigate Islam’s The 2018 pilgrimage comes more on Mecca every year on the eighth for the pilgrimage to returning holiest sites. than a year into the worst political day of Dhu al-Hijjah, a month in home. crisis to grip the Gulf, pitting re- the Islamic calendar that translates Available in eight languages, For many pilgrims, the journey gional heavyweights Saudi Arabia as the “month of pilgrimage.” the app provides information that to Mecca is the first time they will and Qatar against one another but The 3-day pilgrimage, the world’s includes prayer times and flight leave their countries or fly on an Qatari pilgrims are permitted into Troubling largest, is becoming increasingly schedules, the weather forecast for aeroplane. More than half of those Saudi Arabia for haj. smart, using high-tech applications Mecca, Medina and Jeddah, emer- performing haj are from low-in- Iranian pilgrims are also in at- to help the faithful navigate Islam’s gency numbers, the location of the come countries and many others tendance this year. Tehran barred pattern holiest sites. nearest emergency centre and cur- come from conflict-ridden ones. its citizens from the haj following a The Saudi Ministry of Haj and rency exchange rates. “This was my dream from child- 2015 stampede that left about 2,300 Umrah set up 16,000 communica- An inaugural Haj Hackathon, or- hood,” Raja Amjad Hussein, 40, pilgrims dead, including hundreds of Iranian tion towers and more than 3,000 ganised in August to help the min- who made the trip to Mecca from of Iranians. WI-FI hotspots. The towers will istry come up with technological Pakistan, told Agence France- provide pilgrims with undisrupt- solutions to some of the pilgrim- Presse. “I can’t explain. I have no Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly aggression ed 4G mobile internet to main- age’s most pressing issues, saw an words. For many Muslims this is Travel and Society section editor. tain contact with their families all-female team of Saudi and Yeme- the big, the biggest, dream of life, and make use of the ministry’s ni computer programmers win first to see the Kaaba and pray for your- P20 Pages 4,6 2 August 19, 2018 Cover Story US-Turkey Tensions Amid row with US, Turkey’s search for ‘new allies’ has few viable options

Thomas Seibert cars to 120%, on alcoholic drinks from the United States to 140% and on leaf tobacco to 60%. Istanbul Writing in the New York Times, Erdogan warned that the United aught in the most serious States should refrain from “unilat- row with the United States in eralism and disrespect” or see Tur- decades, Turkey reached out key “looking for new friends and C to allies on the Gulf and in allies.” Washington should “come to Europe to shore up its economy, rak- terms with the fact that Turkey has ing in a $15 billion investment from alternatives,” the Turkish president Qatar that observers said is a big wrote. On the day Trump unveiled thank you note for Ankara’s support his sanctions against Turkey, Er- in Doha’s dispute with Saudi Arabia dogan had a telephone conversation Desperate moves. Turkish businessmen stand in front of a currency exchange office in response to and the United Arab Emirates. with Russian President Vladimir Pu- the call of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Turks to sell their dollar and euro savings to Turkish President Recep Tayyip tin, who sent his foreign minister, support the lira, on August 14. (Reuters) Erdogan is accusing US President Sergei Lavrov, to Ankara. Donald Trump of stabbing NATO-al- Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin ly Turkey “in the back” with punitive Hamad al-Thani, a regional ally of stated a headline of the pro-govern- ambassadors in Ankara. However, because the Europe- sanctions on its steel and aluminium Turkey, visited Ankara on August 15 ment Turkiye newspaper. Turkey does not have credible ans are not powerful enough on imports that turned an erosion of the for more than three hours of talks Before the Qatar meeting, Albay- alternatives to its allies in the West the field of security, Turkey should value of the Turkish lira into a dra- with Erdogan. Erdogan’s son-in law rak travelled to Kuwait for talks with and in the Gulf anyway. Europe buys not burn all bridges with the United matic collapse. Trump imposed the and finance minister Berat Albay- Kuwaiti Finance Minister Nayef al- 44.5% of Turkey’s exports, while States, Turan said. In a period with- measures to protest the detention of rak and Qatari Finance Minister Ali Hajraf. The Kuwaiti government dis- Russia and China are not even in the out a clearly defined new world or- American pastor Andrew Brunson in Sharif al Emadi also took part in the missed reports that Albayrak asked top ten of countries that take Turk- der after the end of the post-second Turkey. meeting that produced a promise by for money and that Kuwait helped ish goods. Half of the foreign direct world war era, Ankara should hedge Qatar to invest $15 billion in Turkey’s to shore up the Turkish lira with $1.6 investment flowing into Turkey is its bets, he added: “Don’t leave the financial sector. billion. from Europe. Ilter Turan, a politi- United States but develop relations Ilter Turan, a political scientist Soner Cagaptay, director of the Erdogan also promised closer ties cal scientist at Istanbul’s Bilgi Uni- with China.” at Istanbul’s Bilgi University Turkish programme at the Washing- with China and said Turkey was versity, said talk of a new alliance Both the European Union and Tur- Because the Europeans are ton Institute, said the promise by Qa- preparing to conduct its trade with between Turkey and Russia ignored key signalled a willingness to over- not powerful enough on the tar “could build investor confidence Russia and China in national cur- the fact that Russia’s gross domestic come tensions that have marred re- field of security, Turkey should in Turkey, staving off potential eco- rencies rather than in US dollars. A product was “about as big as that of lations in recent years. Erdogan is to not burn all bridges with the nomic collapse.” Writing on Twitter, similar agreement was reached with Italy.” travel to Germany in September for United States. Cagaptay said the $15 billion was Iran last year. Albayrak said the dol- While cooperating closely in the his first state visit to the most power- Doha’s way of thanking Turkey for lar had “lost credibility.” During his Syrian conflict, Turkey and Russia ful EU country since he became pres- its support during the standoff with visit to Ankara, Lavrov declared that are heirs of empires that fought wars ident in 2014. Erdogan and German In escalating rhetoric used by Er- a Saudi-led quartet of Arab countries the “grave abuse of the role of the US against each other over centuries, Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking dogan and his government since that imposed an embargo on Qatar dollar as a global reserve currency were members of rival camps in the by telephone August 15, agreed that Trump’s decision, Ankara said Wash- last year. “The Qataris believe Turk- will result over time in the weaken- Cold War and have deep differences the two countries’ finance and eco- ington unleashed an “economic ish troop deployment saved them ing and demise of its role.” in the Caucasus and elsewhere. An- nomic ministers should meet before war” against Turkey. When Erdogan from Saudi-UAE invasion” during For all the tough talk in Ankara, kara’s relations with China are not the presidential visit. called on Turks to boycott US elec- the Qatar crisis last year, he said. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut without problems, either. In 2009, In another sign that Ankara is ea- tronic items, such as iPhones, and Both Qatar and Turkey have been Cavusoglu insisted that the ba- Erdogan denounced China’s treat- ger to improve relations with Eu- switch to competitors like Samsung accused of supporting the Muslim sic parameters of Turkey’s foreign ment of the Uighur Muslim minority rope, Turkish courts freed two Greek or Turkish company Vestel, sup- Brotherhood and both governments policy had not changed despite the as “genocide.” soldiers, who had been held for porters of the Turkish leader posted remain on good terms with Iran de- spat with Washington. “Both the By contrast, “Europe is extremely months for an alleged border viola- videos of themselves smashing US spite efforts by the United States, NATO alliance and EU member- important” for Turkey in economic tion, and Taner Kilic, the Turkish mobile phones. In an answer to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab ship will continue to be our key terms, Turan said. “A partnership chairman of Amnesty International, Trump’s steel tariffs, Turkey dou- Emirates to curb Tehran’s influence. directions,” he said in a speech at with Russia and Iran is not a very who was arrested last year on terror bled import tariffs on US passenger “Qatar has proven its friendship,” the yearly conference of Turkish persuasive option.” charges. Smashed, hung and shot, iPhone becomes symbol of Turkish anti-Americanism Istanbul ports. Reactions increased after made fun of the video because, at Erdogan called for a boycott of US the end, there is the sound of an upporters of Turkey’s rul- products, advising citizens to use iPhone ringing in the background. ing Justice and Develop- mobile phones produced in Turkey. Politicians joined the social mo- ment Party (AKP) raced to Apple’s iPhones seem to become bilisation. Two deputies of the Na- S show solidarity with Turkish the new symbol of Turkish anti- tionalist Movement Party, AKP’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Americanism, with videos on Turk- ally in parliament, went to a store as a diplomatic dispute between ish social media of cruelty against where one sold his iPhone to buy Turkey and the United States esca- the devices replacing images of US a Samsung and the other smashed lates. dollars being burned. his iPhone under his feet. Many took to social media to re- In one of the videos posted on Websites selling second-hand act to US government sanctions social media, a man takes the iP- goods are crowded with Turkish on Turkey and to double tariffs on hones of his friends and smashes people selling iPhones to join the Turkish steel and aluminium im- them with a sledgehammer. Many boycott against US goods. August 19, 2018 3 Cover Story US-Turkey Tensions

Trump’s arm-wrestling with Erdogan likely to worsen

Thomas Frank

Washington

eteriorating relations be- tween the United States and Turkey have shifted D from a diplomatic dispute to a personal fight between US President Donald Trump and Turk- ish President Recep Tayyip Erdog- an that is likely to worsen, former US government officials said. While the rift between the two NATO members has been growing for a couple of years, it plunged into hostility as Trump and Erdogan an- nounced punitive actions and made hectoring statements. The immedi- ate flashpoint is Turkey’s detention of evangelical American pastor An- drew Brunson on charges of help- ing the attempted coup in 2016. Erdogan on August 15 increased tariffs on US goods such as cars, to- bacco and alcohol and urged Turks to destroy their American-made cell phones. Erdogan was respond- ing to Trump’s August 10 Twitter announcement that he was dou- bling tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium — a move that helped send the Turkish lira into free fall. Isolated more than ever. The Turkish flag flies at the Turkish Embassy in Washington. (Reuters) “This issue is now extremely per- sonal for Trump and it’s quite clear Trump is prepared to use addition- it plays on the instincts of both an’s government. serve as a democratic model for have areas where we don’t always al policy measures” to secure Brun- presidents. They’re fundamentally Relations have become so other Muslim nations. Turkey was agree,” Nauert added, “but we also son’s release, said Amanda Sloat, a bullies, both of them. They’re now strained that the United States a leading ally of the United States have areas where we do work to- former US diplomat who handled dug in and see political costs in should reset them with Turkey, after the attacks on September 11, gether and cooperate and Turkey US relations with Turkey and is backing down,” said Max Hoffman, said Cook, a senior fellow for Mid- 2001. would be one of those govern- now with the Brookings Institu- a former UN disarmament and se- dle East and African studies at the More recently, Turkey has sought ments where we sometimes have tion. “The question is how much curity specialist who is with the Council on Foreign Relations. to develop closer ties with US ad- areas where we disagree and we economic pain Erdogan is willing Centre for American Progress. “It’s versaries Russia, China and Iran. certainly sometimes have areas to suffer.” really down to the personal egos of “It’s hard to make the case that where we cooperate as well.” Trump capitalised on Brunson’s these two presidents.” Erdogan seems to Turkey is an ally and a partner On the same day, White House religious background to build po- Hoffman, Sloat and analyst Ste- relish a confrontation when you consider the long list of Press Secretary Sarah Sanders de- litical support among US evangeli- ven Cook spoke August 16 in Wash- with Trump, whom he different priorities,” Cook said. nounced a Turkish court’s decision cal Christians, who are a key part ington during a panel discussion can use as a scapegoat Trump’s decision to increase tar- to reject Brunson’s request to be of Trump’s political base. Trump on US-Turkish relations. All agreed for Turkey’s iffs and to sanction two members released from custody as his trial notes Brunson’s religion every time that US-Turkish relations have economic crisis. of Erdogan’s cabinet undermined continues. “We feel that Turkey, he mentions him. been deteriorating for years as the efforts by the US State Department and specifically President Erdogan, Erdogan seems to relish a con- two countries have split over Iran, “We should recognise there isn’t and Defence Department to de- have treated Pastor Brunson — who frontation with Trump, whom he Syria, Erdogan’s consolidation of a strategic relationship and we fuse the conflict. State Department we know to be a very good person can use as a scapegoat for Turkey’s power and the arrest of roughly a need to figure out how to deal with spokeswoman Heather Nauert and a strong Christian who’s done economic crisis while trying to use dozen Turkish Americans follow- a country that’s important but not tried to calm the brewing contro- nothing wrong — very unfairly, Brunson as leverage to get the Unit- ing the coup attempt. as important as it once was,” he versy by saying on August 15 that very badly,” Sanders said. “And it’s ed States to extradite Turkish cleric Recent opinion polls in Turkey said. the United States has “a very broad something that we won’t forget in Fethullah Gulen to face charges of indicated that 80% of Turkish re- The United States supported Tur- relationship with the government the administration.” instigating the July 2016 attempted spondents said the United States key, hoping it could help negotiate of Turkey.” coup in Turkey. was complicit in the coup, reflect- a peace deal between the Palestin- “Of course, with all nations, as Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly “The dispute is a problem because ing a narrative put forth by Erdog- ian territories and Israel and could a general matter, we will often correspondent in Washington.

Viewpoint Turkey, US rushing towards an irreparable rupture

ere’s a tweet sent by within NATO. There is no doubt, true but that is all the more reason clear by now: Turkey is no longer US President Donald the historic relationship is set for to second guess Turkey’s role in an ally or partner.” Trump late on Au- a tug-of-war with neither Trump collective defence. After all, when Gone are the pretence and wish- Yavuz Baydar gust 16: “Turkey has nor his Turkish counterpart, Recep a crisis erupts, NATO members ful thinking. It is time to face facts. taken advantage of Tayyip Erdogan, willing to let go. must rally together, not engage Erdogan’s Justice and Develop- the United States for Both leaders are behaving like in bidding wars with Washington ment Party was long the West’s Hmany years. They are now holding rogue adventurers, independent and Moscow over who deserves its only hope that political Islam and our wonderful Christian Pastor, of advice, the rules of traditional loyalty. democracy are compatible. That who I must now ask to represent statesmanship and even of admin- “Indeed, the real danger to expectation has been crushed by our Country as a great patriot hos- istrative coherence. In terms of NATO is not that Turkey will with- Erdogan. That era of hope is over. tage. We will pay nothing for the long-term effects, the inevitable draw or pivot to Russia but rather While most of the blame must go release of an innocent man, but we rupture, which might also be irrep- that it remains inside. Because to Erdogan and his cronies, some are cutting back on Turkey!” arable, will define so much more NATO decisions are consensual, should be laid at the door of the The tweet is loud and it sheds than the relationship between the Turkey can play the proverbial European Union. light on several layers of reality. United States and Turkey. It will Trojan Horse to filibuster any ac- Erdogan’s slow-motion civil- First, it shows how feudal interna- trigger a chain reaction, especially tion when crises loom. It is true ian coup — the spectacular power tional politics has become. Second, as Turkey is the weakest link in the there is no clear mechanism to grab orchestrated since 2014 — has it is a reminder that the great con- NATO-based security chain. expel NATO members but NATO’s created a new regime architecture. servative political thinker Samuel As the latest surveys indicate, survival nonetheless requires It is no longer on the same page as Huntington was right when he nearly 80% of Turks asked said purging Turkey. The West should the West on key issues. Erdogan wrote about the clash of civilisa- they held anti-American views. call Erdogan’s bluff.” wants a free hand to do as he tions. In 1993, the prophetic vision The conflict revolving around the Realists in Washington are pleases, with impunity, even as was shunned by many pundits but American pastor has helped bring receptive to the idea of the end of he seeks to retain international le- it has become a reality with grow- anti-Americanism to the surface an era. gitimacy. This means he will never ing tribalism around religious and in a way that has not been seen “It should be clear by now that cease to be a chameleon, now cultural divides. before. And the soul-searching there is no strategic relationship. seeking a rapprochement with the Consider Trump’s tweet. It sin- among observers has accelerated. Turkey and the United States have European Union, later spoiling for gles out a Christian pastor. Andrew “Does Turkey, today, still belong different interests and priorities,” a fight. Brunson, the American evangeli- in NATO?” asked Michael Rubin, in wrote Steven Cook, an analyst Erdogan’s actions definitely cal pastor, is portrayed as the sole the Washington Post. with the Council on Foreign Rela- help Trump, who seems to want to victim in a country where he and Rubin, a former Pentagon official tions. demolish the old world order, re- Erdogan wants a tens of thousands are jailed on bo- with the American Enterprise The tensions, he added, were ducing it to such multipolarity that free hand to do as gus charges. Trump’s selectiveness Institute, a conservative Wash- “the result of a changing world in global tribalism thrives. Democra- he pleases, with on the basis of religion makes it ington think-tank, offers a blunt which Washington and Ankara no cies will be the victims. worthwhile to revisit Huntington’s answer, pointing to Erdogan’s longer share a common threat. Per- The future? As the saying goes: impunity, even as thesis. proposed purchase of the S-400 haps the controversy over Pastor When elephants fight, ants die. he seeks to retain The third reality exposed by air defence system from Russia: Brunson and the way the Turkish that tweet is the seemingly nar- “Those counselling a softer line government has responded to the Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish international rower conflict between Turkey and point out that Erdogan’s strategy lira crisis will be a clarifying mo- journalist and regular columnist legitimacy. the United States, two key allies is, in part, transactional. This is ment, highlighting what should be for The Arab Weekly. 4 August 19, 2018 News & Analysis Iraq Iraq protests bubble up over poverty, corruption

Manuel Langendorf Seloom, an Iraq expert at the Uni- versity of Exeter. The protests tie into larger trends facing many London countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Chief among raq has been hit by months them is the fact that youth unem- of protests. As temperatures ployment in the MENA region, at soared to around 50 degrees around 25%, is the highest in the I Celsius in the south, electric- world. The International Monetary ity cuts were introduced after Iran Fund (IMF) called job creation the limited energy supplies in July. As a greatest challenge for the region’s result, people in Basra and beyond efforts “to build a future based on took to the streets to call for better inclusive growth.” public services. Iraq’s current crisis has many While demands varied according causes, harking back to the poli- to local circumstances, the protests cies of Ba’athist governments and again revealed a deeper crisis of le- the US-led invasion in 2003 that gitimacy in Iraq. Protesters have installed an ethno-sectarian or- called on the government to create der in place today. Previous sum- job opportunities, ease poverty and mers have witnessed large protests end corruption. At least 14 demon- against corruption and a lack of strators have been killed since the services. protests erupted in early July. Several factors have made the “While media attention has protests in the south particularly moved on since July, protests have explosive. Iraq’s predominantly continued at a higher than normal Shia south produces most of the rate in the first few weeks of Au- country’s oil output but has been gust,” said Benedict Robin-D’Cruz, plagued by a lack of public services a researcher on Iraqi politics who and mass unemployment. A water has monitored the situation in shortage crisis, Robin-D’Cruz wrote southern Iraq. The protests include for the London School of Econom- a sit-in that lasted several days and ics’ Middle East Centre blog, led another targeting oil operations at to intensified tribal fighting when West Qurna 1 near Basra. criminality has been on the rise in southern provinces. To alleviate the situation, Ku- As is the case in many wait announced it would provide countries in the region, the Long-simmering grievances. An Iraqi woman holds a sign and chants slogans during a demonstration 17 mobile power generators with a against unemployment in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square. (AFP) Iraqi government is a key capacity of 30,000 kilowatts. It also source of employment. pledged to provide fuel to power stations. signal to the people that the politi- from 2018-20. able record and low calibre” of the All this comes as Iraqi Prime Min- Experts see the ethno-sectarian cal classes are listening.” Amid these challenges, there political class. ister Haider al-Abadi leads a care- power-sharing system that has Mustafa Habib, an Iraqi journalist is also hope. The IMF stated ear- Robin-D’Cruz warned that “au- taker government more than three governed Iraq for the past 15 years in Baghdad, said the government lier this year that “Iraq’s growth thorities can buy off protesters months after parliamentary elec- as part of the problem. Protesters should focus on services while in- outlook is expected to improve over the short term,” citing a lack tions, which marked the first time actively demanded change in this creasing transparency in its fight thanks to a more favourable secu- of overall political organisation by Iraqis went to the polls since the regard. “Appoint technocrats to against corruption. Seloom said rity environment and the gradual the protesters. “But this only en- government declared victory over lead ministries of services such as the judiciary needed more support pick up of investment for recon- courages further mobilisations,” he Islamic State militants. A manual electricity and oil,” Seloom said. from the executive in this regard. struction.” Similarly, the country’s said. recount was ordered after allega- “That is a start.” As is the case in many countries fiscal balance is forecast to turn “Short-term solutions will not tions of voter fraud but the results “Iraq’s problems and the sources in the region, the Iraqi government positive in 2018. work,” said Seloom, adding that barely changed. Shia cleric Muqta- of popular anger do not lend them- is a key source of employment. Significant risks remain. “Fight- it was likely the next government da al-Sadr’s Sairoon bloc remained selves to quick fixes,” said Fanar “There is no proper private sec- ing corruption is a popular slogan would put technocrats in charge of in the lead with 54 out 329 seats, Haddad, a senior research fellow tor,” said Seloom, urging the gov- but there is little that can be done service ministries. If a new govern- followed by the Fatah alliance led at the Middle East Institute of the ernment not to add people to its in the short term beyond offering ment continued on the same path, by Popular Mobilisation Forces National University of Singapore. payroll only to placate protesters. a few sacrificial political lambs,” however, the situation in Iraq could leader Hadi al-Amiri and Abadi’s He added, however, that a govern- He sees potential in strengthen- acknowledged Haddad. He said he reach a boiling point. Nasr bloc. ment that does not follow the cur- ing Iraq’s agricultural production, was sceptical whether a new gov- “Iraq has structural problems rent system of ethno-sectarian ap- which the World Bank forecasts ernment could go beyond the sec- Manuel Langendorf is a writer on every level,” said Muhanad portionment “would send a strong to experience single-digit growth tarian system, citing the “question- focusing on the MENA region. Viewpoint In southern Iraq, Iran’s manoeuvres backfire raqi media report that the plants. It was Iran’s choice to stop been held captive by the actions of of the political process in Iraq to Basra protests, which have electricity exports just after the these groups, are seeking venge- affect the formation of the govern- spread to Wasit, Maysan, Dhi US decision to resume sanctions, ance. More impressively, the ment and to distance it from Ira- Haitham Numan Qar and Karbala provinces, causing the electricity shortage pressures are proving effective: nian influence as much as possible. resulted solely from the en- and a cut-off of potable water that pro-Iranian groups in headquar- Politicians in Iraq are listening. ergy crisis and rising unem- sparked the protests. With a lack of ters and barracks are searching for Even Amiri, the hawkish head of Iployment. The truth is that these available drinking water or cooling havens and calling on government the Badr Organisation, has apolo- major economic and political crises devices during a summer, during forces to protect them and their gised to the Iraqi people stating emerged because of the increase which temperatures have reached bases, especially since they have that “we must admit that we have of Iranian influence in Iraq and more than 49 degrees Celsius, been identified as the main actors failed our people and were unable protesters recognise this. the response to Iran’s actions was accused in the killing of demon- to provide them with a decent life Though contributing about 80% predictable. strators. — whether intentionally or unin- of Iraqi oil exports, Basra has been In contrast to domestic re- Protesters are directly tackling tentionally — and we let our people neglected for decades by Saddam porting, many analysts say Iran the issue of Iranian influence in suffer while we were preoccupied Hussein and successive govern- intentionally pushed Basra to the Iraqi politics. Slogans in Arabic and with our internal conflict.” ments. Reports have noted that breaking point to destabilise the Persian declare: “We submit our Nevertheless, Amiri has faced residents of the south have been country, threatening oil companies request to the Iranian government much criticism due to his initial forced by severe poverty and with the prospect of heavy losses — sorry, to the Iraqi government,” refusal to accept responsibility. unemployment to move to Anbar and potentially pushing them to conveying contempt for an Iraqi Given this unique window of governorate in search of agricul- pressure the Trump administration government they accuse of being a opportunity, the Trump adminis- tural work. The protests also reflect to lessen sanctions through Wash- subordinate to Tehran. tration should seize the moment Iraq’s struggle to rebuild following ington and London oil lobbies. Ironically, the course of the pro- presented by Shia Iraqis’ grow- the war against Islamist militants A decline in Iraqi oil production tests has shifted from oil firms — ing popular rejection of Iranian that destroyed the country’s infra- would raise the global price of oil — presumably Iran’s intended targets influence in Iraq to reformulate structure. a welcome reprieve for the Iranian — to the headquarters of Islamist its strategic relationship with the Although Iraqi Prime Minister economy considering the first parties and factions loyal to Iran, country based on weakening Ira- Haider al-Abadi announced invest- wave of reimposed sanctions. Iran including the Hakim movement, nian influence. ments worth $3 billion for Basra may have also intended to pressure the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Badr The US administration can and pledged additional spending southern Iraq’s residents to secure militias and even the Dawa Party in encourage the formation of an in- on housing, schools and services a sectarian government coalition various provinces. dependent government to rework in response to the protests, they that would further Iran’s influence Dawa Party and Iranian militia the constitution and transform Iraq The protesters’ have continued and spread to in Iraq after its allies’ disappointing bases have been burned. Protest- from a parliamentary to a presiden- messages indicate Baghdad. The persistence of the results in the elections. ers calling themselves the youth of tial system, with a president and a demonstrations poses important As the protests in Iraq enter their the Great Popular Revolution also parliament elected by the people. they are targeting questions: Who benefits from the second month, it appears Iran has burned images of religious figures The Iraqi government should be the pillars of the expansion of these protests? And fallen into a trap of its own making. associated with loyalty to Tehran, encouraged to increase its focus political process in who benefits from faltering Iraqi Tehran ignited a flame in the south including Hadi al-Amiri, Nuri al- on investments in the southern oil supplies? that could burn its allies and the Maliki and Qais Khazali, as well as provinces to limit unemployment, Iraq to distance it Because of the southern re- militia’s commanders loyal to it. images of republic founder Ayatol- especially among young Iraqis, and from Iranian gion’s financial and administra- The protests toppled the barrier lah Ruhollah Khomeini and Iranian deter corruption. tive corruption, Basra province of fear that had kept citizens from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. influence as much imports its energy from Iran rather openly criticising Tehran’s militias The protesters’ messages indi- Haitham Numan is an Iraqi scholar as possible. than establishing its own power in Iraq. Those citizens, who had cate they are targeting the pillars based in the United States. August 19, 2018 5 News & Analysis Gulf

Iran responds to Viewpoint US pressure with new attempts to destabilise Chinese president’s visit to Bahrain The Arab Weekly staff the UAE is about more than oil

London

ran has been mobilising groups sympathetic to its causes to protest outside of Gulf coun- I tries’ embassies across Europe and intensifying their pro-Iranian activities in the Gulf region, politi- cal observers said. The moves come as the United States designated Qassim Abdul- lah Ali Ahmed, a Bahraini leader of the Iran-backed al-Ashtar Bri- gades, as “a global terrorist,” a move welcomed by Bahraini au- thorities. The US State Department said Ahmed’s “property and inter- ests subject to US jurisdiction are blocked and US persons are gener- ally prohibited from engaging in any transactions with him.” “The Kingdom of Bahrain ex- presses its sincere appreciation of this important step by the United States, which is seen as part of the on-going US efforts to confront ter- rorism and combat its financing for the sake of international peace and security,” the Bahraini Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement August 14 on Twitter. The ministry called for “joint ac- tion and cooperation at all levels to ensure the elimination of all forms of terrorism and deter those who finance or support it.” Officials noted an increase in the mobilisation of pro-Iranian activ- ists outside the Bahraini Embassy in London, where they called for the release of Hassan Mushaima, who has been in Bahraini custody since 2011. Mushaima, founder and secre- Strategic relations. Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan arrive at the (AFP) tary-general of the hard-line Haq presidential palace in Abu Dhabi, on July 20. Movement for Liberty and Democ- racy, was one of the main figures in he state visit by Chi- countries over the economic gains Middle East, could escalate, dam- anti-government protests in Bah- nese President Xi Jin- and debt sustainability. aging not only the regional corri- rain in February and March 2011. Alessandro ping to the United Arab Some observers, who imply dors of the BRI but even mainland Mushaima, a Shia cleric, is known Arduino Emirates focused on that the “debt trap” is a deliberate China. as a supporter of the regime in the customary Chinese feature of China’s infrastructure In the past, the strategic distrust Tehran with strong ties to the Is- signature economic di- building and lending strategy, that characterises China’s relations lamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Tplomacy consisting of a bundle of point out the case of the Hamban- with the United States and India Iranian media organs and inter- financial and business memoranda tota port in Sri Lanka that ended has not impeded Beijing’s efforts national media friendly to Tehran of understanding as well as several up as a 99-year concession to the to freeload on the US security um- have been championing Mushai- trade agreements. Chinese government due to a lack brella. Now, due to US President ma’s cause. His son Ali, who is also Xi’s UAE visit in July, the first by of loan repayments. Donald Trump’s policy of increas- wanted by authorities in Manama, a Chinese leader in three decades, Considering the financial effect ing isolationism and unilateralism, is leading the protests outside underscored how Abu Dhabi plays of the planned Chinese invest- China is taking proactive engage- the Bahraini Embassy in London, a key role in Xi’s signature foreign ments in the area and the status ment measures; yet a clear policy claiming his father is being mis- policy, the Belt and Road Initiative of the UAE economy, it is possible or general guidelines have yet to treated. (BRI). The UAE is the gateway to to discount a hidden “debt trap.” be implemented. “Since the start of the sit-ins in more than half of China’s ex- However, China’s closer engage- Since the publication of China’s front of the Bahraini Embassy in ports to the Middle East. China’s ment with the Emirates and Gulf 2016 “Arab Policy Paper,” Beijing London, we have followed up with proposed investments will have countries in general has show- has demonstrated a willingness the authorities concerning his fa- a profound effect on Abu Dhabi’s cased how the BRI is creating un- to undertake broader engagement ther’s condition in prison,” said financial, industrial, real estate, intended geopolitical ripple effects measures, yet the economic sup- Dina al-Lazi of Bahrain’s National tourism and, of course, energy altering the regional geopolitical port and promised infrastructure Institution for Human Rights. “We sectors. equilibrium. investments are not sufficient to found that he was being treated While hydrocarbons are cen- China’s increasing engagement shield China from sudden cri- on a regular basis and there was tral to Beijing’s engagement with with the United Arab Emirates and ses. Within the BRI corridor, the no negligence; in fact, he is having the Middle East, the focus of the Saudi Arabia and the relationship Middle East is a testing ground special meals prepared for him in planned investments in the area with Iran are not sustainable in the for China’s foreign and defence line with his health requirements.” showcase a growing interest from long run. China will be forced, at policies and its principle of non- Lazi said there have been at- China’s state-owned enterprises some point, to take sides among interference. tempts to pressure Bahrain politi- (SOEs) to be part of the UAE’s the competing regional powers. While Beijing is taking practical cally and to undermine its inde- financial reform as well as to use The comprehensive strategic steps to balance its relationships pendence through false human the Emirates as a forward logistical Sino-UAE partnership promoted in the Middle East, the United rights claims. hub. during Xi’s visit includes deeper Arab Emirates is also diversifying “There are no shortages in care Although the energy share of military cooperation including its strategic partners to reduce in our reform and detention cen- the deal allows Chinese SOEs to high-level exchange of visits and financial and geo-political risks. tres,” Lazi said. be part of the financial structure communication between the mili- The Emirates is playing the multi- Tensions between Bahrain and for onshore and offshore crude tary’s leaders as well as the joint vector policy game that several Iran have a long history; however oil concessions in the area, the training of military personnel and other countries from Central Asia the situation became worse in infrastructure share of the deal other cooperation mechanisms and the European Union 16+1, the 2007 when an adviser to Iranian promises to increase the Emirates’ with particular attention to the grouping of 16 Central and Eastern Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali role as a regional hub as well as the fight against terrorism. European countries and China, are Khamenei, Hossein Shariatma- BRI’s gateway for Chinese goods. Beijing’s engagement in the learning to play. dari, called Bahrain a province of At the same time, the planned region is characterised by the By leveraging its geopolitical the Islamic republic that should be increase in bilateral trade is a decades-old Chinese principle of position in this way, the United returned to Iran. sign of China’s desire to find new non-interference. The need to pro- Arab Emirates could balance the During the 2011 “Arab spring” markets for products negatively tect Chinese interests and citizens concomitant presence of a great protests, the government in Ma- The United Arab affected by the trade war with the abroad, however, is forcing Beijing power, the influence of a rising nama accused Iran of hijacking Emirates is United States. to express theories that imply a power and the aspirations of the demonstrations to further its sec- The BRI’s fluidity and lack of a proactive stance instead of the other regional powers. tarian agenda. Since then, Bahrain diversifying its defined framework are consistent traditional passivity. and other Gulf Arab countries have strategic partners to with the Chinese practical mo- At the same time Chinese politi- Alessandro Arduino is the reportedly intercepted weapons dus operandi. Nevertheless, the cians and academics are aware author of “China’s Private Army: and explosives said to be meant reduce financial and BRI’s loose framework is induc- that conflicts and bursts of sudden Protecting the New Silk Road” for groups sympathetic to Tehran. geo-political risks. ing apprehension in the receiving violence, which characterise the (Palgrave-Macmillan, 2018.) 6 August 19, 2018 Opinion

Editorial Iranian aggression in Bahrain part of a troubling pattern

fter reimposing sanctions on Iran, Washington has moved to clip the wings of the Islamic Republic’s proxies in the region, not least the militant al-Ashtar Brigades (AAB) in Bahrain. AOn August 13, the US State Department listed one of AAB’s leaders, Qassim Abdullah Ali Ahmed, also known as Qassim al-Mua- men, as a specially designated global terror- ist, subjecting him to wide-ranging sanc- tions. Ahmed, a senior figure in the designated terror group who is based in Iran, stands accused of providing members with funding, weapons and explosives to attack the Bah- raini government. In 2017, he was sentenced in absentia to life in prison for his involve- ment in an attack that killed a Bahraini police officer. © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly The United States’ sanctions on Ahmed and other AAB leaders, which deny them access to the US financial system, are an Abadi’s stance against Iran indication of Iran’s growing presence in Bahrain, which has for years dealt with attacks by militant Shia groups on its security is no small feat services and public institutions. The AAB, founded in 2013, is among the Khairallah Khairallah deadliest of these groups, having claimed responsibility for numerous attacks in The significance of Abadi’s defiance is that it reflects a popular Bahrain, including a March 2014 bombing undercurrent in Iraq refusing Iran’s hegemony there. that killed three Bahraini and UAE security officers. AAB has called for violence against the Bahraini, British, Saudi and US govern- he Iranian regime under his belt, Abadi knows the Abadi’s position reflects the ments, the US State Department said, and is not happy with significance of the US sanctions seriousness of the US sanctions explicitly seeks the overthrow of the Bah- Iraqi Prime Minis- on Iran as well as America’s role against Iran and the Trump raini government. ter Haider al-Abadi internationally. It doesn’t pay to administration’s determination The United States has joined the United — and that’s to the resist the top economic power in to go very far in implementing Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab man’s credit. the world. them. Surely, the man has his Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt in designating TIt is very likely that Abadi’s Abadi’s act was no small feat. own agenda as he continues AAB a “foreign terrorist organisation,” saying political future has become Tehran reacted to his announce- to battle for another term as it is part of Iran’s “terrorist” proxy network contingent on the extent of Iran’s ment by scrapping his visit to prime minister. Still, the ques- aimed at spreading “its malevolent influence influence in Iraq. His position re- Iran. When Abadi chose to defy tion that will pop up sooner or and (upending) international peace and garding the US sanctions on Iran Iran on as a delicate issue as the later is “how will Iran use Iraq to stability.” argues in his favour even though subject of US sanctions, he must manoeuvre around the US sanc- Also part of Iran’s network in Bahrain is the he belongs to Dawa, an Islamic have known that he was embark- tions, which are bound to become Saraya al Mokhtar militia, which has exten- sectarian political party that can ing on a sink-or-swim battle with harsher in November.” sive ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary be considered a Shia version of the Iranian regime. Obviously, the Iranian regime Guard Corps and Shia insurgents trained by the Muslim Brotherhood. To confirm that, look at the ag- will do its utmost to put in place Hezbollah. During the time of his opposi- gressive reaction of Mujtaba al- in Iraq a pro-Iranian government. Iran’s relationship with Bahraini militant tion to Saddam Hussein’s regime, Husseini, representative of Iran’s This means it will try to get rid groups is distinct from the role it plays in Abadi did not live in Iran. This, supreme leader in Iraq. Speaking of Abadi as soon as possible. If Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, where it provides too, must be added to his credit. from Najaf, Husseini accused it chooses to do battle with the Abadi of “being subservient to proxies with wide-ranging support, includ- Abadi was brave enough to sanctions, there won’t be many openly declare that Iraq will America in its plot against Iran, options available to it. ing large-scale weaponry, and operates more abide by the US sanctions against which is Iraq’s neighbour and In addition to forming a pro- openly on the political scene, analysts say. It Iran. He had many reservations shares with the Iraqi people the Iranian government in Iraq, the also shows how effective the country is at about the sanctions and called same religion and the same posi- Iranian regime will push for spreading its destructive vision through them “tyrannical” and a “strate- tions.” a pro-Iranian government in different geopolitical terrain. gic blunder.” Still, the man had By qualifying the Iraqis and Lebanon. This is the only way we “What Bahrain shows is that Iran uses enough patriotism to safeguard the Iranians as belonging to the can explain the vicious attack on different formulas to support its proxies in his country’s interests when he same nation, Husseini’s words Abadi in Iraq and the stubborn each operational environment,” said Michael announced that Iraq was com- recall the words of the late refusal of the option of a “consen- Knights, a scholar at the Washington Insti- mitted to the sanctions. Syrian President Hafez Assad sus government” with Saad Hariri tute for Near East Policy. “Iran’s adaptive Abadi had enough common when he justified Syria’s control as prime minister in Lebanon. approaches in each area mean that the US sense to know that the United over Lebanon by qualifying the In any case, the significance of needs to flexibly respond to Tehran’s chal- States may decide to kiss and Syrians and Lebanese as being Abadi’s defiance is that it reflects lenge.” make up with Iran tomorrow. part of “the same nation in two a popular undercurrent in Iraq Indeed, Iran’s interference in Bahrain is There may be another honey- countries.” refusing Iran’s hegemony there. part of a troubling pattern of aggression, moon between both countries What is unknown, though, is the which has alarmed both Gulf countries and just like in the days preceding US administration’s position with other nations of the world. the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 or respect to Abadi in particular The United States, which abandoned the during the eight years of Barack and Iraq in general. Will it stand Iran nuclear agreement in May and Obama’s administration. by him and push for his rein- announced the reimposition of sanctions on Therefore, is it fair for Iran to statement as prime minister for Tehran, recently voiced concern over Iran’s have the best relations with the another term? After all, the man provocative firing of a ballistic missile near United States and, at the same has proven that he was a patriot the strategic Strait of Hormuz. time, blackmail it daily either in even though he belongs to the “It’s pretty clear to us that they were trying Syria, Iraq, Lebanon or Yemen Dawa party. to use that exercise to send a message to us and deny to Iraq the right to look For the next few months, the that, as we approach the period for the after its own national interests? US administration is likely to sanctions here, they had some capabilities,” Iraq’s recent past is full of focus much effort on the Ira- said US Army General Joseph Votel, com- injustices of this type. Former nian situation. I believe that the mander of the US Central Command. “We are US President George W. Bush Americans will keep the offer of aware of what’s going on and we remain delivered Iraq to Iran on a silver a no-holds-barred dialogue with ready to protect ourselves.” platter but it was Obama who Tehran open as long as possible. Many countries are concerned that Iran is completed the operation in 2010. Iran, on the other hand, is going preparing to launch destructive and costly Why should it be that Iran has to be testing the earnestness of cyber-attacks to hit back against recent the right to coordinate every- US President Donald Trump and sanctions. From 2012-14, Iran carried out thing in Iraq with the Americans his team. It will try to impress on dozens of such attacks, targeting banks and and even decide on who should them that it holds more than one financial institutions and causing tens of be prime minister while Iraq is playing card in the region, espe- millions of dollars in damage. denied that right? cially in Iraq where it controls All of this is reason for the world to take Abadi’s position regarding the the pro-Iran sectarian militias Iran’s aggressive behaviour seriously. The US sanctions shows that Iraq known as the Popular Mobilisa- country’s sectarian vision and ruthless refuses to completely surrender tion Forces. tactics, which have played out everywhere to Iran. The Iraqi prime minister As for Abadi, he is going to be from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon to Yemen, have justified his position in plain in hot water for quite some time made the world a more dangerous place. words. He said he didn’t want “to unless the United States decides Now, with Iran’s designs seeming even more place Iraqis in harm’s way” and for once to stand by its allies. ominous, it is all the more important its that Iraq can’t afford to oppose aggressive policies be effectively resisted. “the international system.” Turbulent politics. Iraqi Prime Minister Khairallah Khairallah is a With years of experience Haider al-Abadi. (AFP) Lebanese writer. August 19, 2018 7 Opinion Contact editor at: [email protected] Iran and Turkey need more than www.thearabweekly.com desperate moves to face the US Published by Al Arab Publishing House Ahmad Abou Douh Neither Iran nor Turkey has multi-option strategies. Publisher They only have one-option strategies. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD hen it comes administration imposed on ist regimes in both countries. their backs to the wall and are to relations two Turkish ministers and for There is no doubt the post- taking punches without even Editor-in-Chief with the doubling tariffs on Turkish steel world war two liberal world thinking of punching back. United and aluminium imports to the order is being ripped apart and Erdogan wants to avoid Oussama Romdhani States, Iran United States. The Americans reassembled on new bases. The Turkey serving as the example and Turkey needed justifications for their United States and its Euro- to other US allies in the region Managing Editor Ware relying more and more on unprecedented act of sanction- pean allies don’t see eye-to-eye of what to expect in case they Iman Zayat “single-option” policies. They ing a NATO ally. So, Erdogan’s on many issues, such as the dare cross the United States. US are desperately clutching at stubbornness is good news for position to take with respect to officials have noticed a growing Deputy Managing Editor straws, as the saying goes. the Americans. Russia, the Iranian deal and US desire on the part of America’s and Online Editor Every time the United States The other NATO members protective trade measures. allies in the region, such as Mamoon Alabbasi draws the net a little tighter on have not even criticised the US It is not true that this is a Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the the Iranian regime, the only actions against Turkey. There Western problem only. The United Arab Emirates, to take Senior Editor choice for Iran is to hang on is no mystery there because Middle East will witness funda- the initiative of defending their John Hendel to the nuclear deal. In Turkey, Erdogan has hardly any friends mental changes following the own interests without paying President Recep Tayyip Erdogan left in Europe to take his side. shift of this world order, even if attention to Washington’s views Chief Copy Editor can’t find anything to blackmail They simply stood by as he took those features, as usual, will be or objectives. Richard Pretorius the Americans with except the a political slap. Erdogan’s case decided by the West. If this tendency towards case of pastor Andrew Brunson. may be personal for Trump It was pure chance that Iran independence among America’s Copy Editor It has become clear that but for the US agencies, it was and Turkey became the key allies in the region, even if it Stephen Quillen economic sanctions are going to strategic. variables of the equations for a were only in appearance, is be the big stick with which the Erdogan failed to under- new Middle East. The outcome left unchecked, then the new Analysis Section Editor Americans intend to keep the stand that the pressure he put of the West’s tug of war with Middle East order runs the risk Ed Blanche Islamists of the region in line. on the Syrian Kurds and the Iran and Turkey will set the of becoming based on decen- The Trump administration has US military bases east of the path for the region for many tralised decisions and mov- East/West Section Editor concluded that the problem is Euphrates had a direct effect decades. ing away from international Mark Habeeb not with the Islamists’ branches on the US strategic planning for If Iran and Turkey could hold control. If that happens, the but rather their source. the area. Reducing the number until a new Middle East takes United States risks losing its Gulf Section Editor Washington is not really irked of bases or withdrawing certain shape or if they could manoeu- role as policeman of the world, Mohammed Alkhereiji by Iran’s sticking with the nu- personnel and equipment just vre to force the American side a role that was fundamental in clear deal or by Brunson’s con- to please Turkey would result in to make concessions, then they shaping the post-world war two Society and Travel tinued detention. Of course, US several holes in the US strategic will become the only two forces balance of power. Sections Editor President Donald Trump would deployment in the Middle East. in the region which, along with The Middle East is a minia- Samar Kadi like to see the pastor freed Erdogan’s rebellious tone and Israel, could give shape to the ture model for the changes go- and returned to the United his exaggerated rhetoric were power equation in the region. ing on worldwide. In the Trump Syria and Lebanon States with the right pomp and not helping. All they did was They won’t have any Arab com- era, international politics is Section Editor circumstances just in time for turn the US-Turkish disagree- petitor. based on crossing allies and be- Simon Speakman Cordall the US elections in November ment into a personal issue for However, if they fall in their friending former enemies. This but the US government agencies Trump. In any case, whether for struggle with the United States, is also what we are seeing in the Contributing Editor have a different opinion. personal or strategic reasons, it then the region will need an Middle East. Trump is offering Rashmee Roshan Lall With Iran, the more it stays has become necessary for the Arab coalition to fill the void or to negotiate with Tehran, Wash- Senior Correspondents in the deal, the more sanctions Americans to punish Turkey. fall prey to chaos. ington’s enemy, but is tight- the United States can impose So, if Iran and Turkey see in The problem is that neither ening the screws on Ankara, Mahmud el-Shafey (London) on it and the more painful they the nuclear deal and the deten- Iran nor Turkey has multi-op- Washington’s ally. Surely, both Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) become for the Iranians. tion of a pastor, respectively, tion strategies. They only have Iran and Turkey will need more Brunson’s detention was a as the straw to grasp for their one-option strategies, which, than two straws to stay afloat. Regular Columnists stroke of luck for the US admin- safety, Washington considers frankly, do not impress the Claude Salhani istration. It provided a cover both situations as rocks with American side in any way. Both Ahmad Abou Douh is an Yavuz Baydar of legitimacy for sanctions the which it will drown the extrem- countries look like they have Egyptian writer. Correspondents Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) Can Imran Khan’s Pakistan balance Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Thomas Seibert (Washington) Riyadh and Tehran? Chief Designer Marwen el-Hmedi Rashmee Roshan Lall Though Pakistan is not in the Middle East and North Africa region, it has Designers Ibrahim Ben Bechir long had key relationships with some of the main players. Hanen Jebali

n the drama over the indicating this may no longer be war; collaborated with Riyadh policy priorities square with the Trump administration’s the case and that Tehran could in support of the mujahideen above? Seemingly, they don’t, Al Arab Publishing House attitude towards Iran, a have more importance in terms in 1980s Afghanistan; trained at least not neatly, but Khan’s Quadrant Building country that has not de- of alliances. Saudi pilots and soldiers; and, as successive ranking of Iran and 177-179 Hammersmith Road veloped nuclear weapons, That may not strictly be true. recently as February, sent 1,000 Saudi Arabia may point to London W6 8BS

a crucial transition under Those with expertise in politi- troops to Saudi Arabia to add to something else. He is following Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 Iway in the world’s only Muslim cal parsing point out that Khan the 1,600 already there. a script written by Pakistan’s Fax: (+44) 20 8846 9520 nuclear state is being ignored. It devoted only a short sentence In return, the Saudis have military, which is more power- shouldn’t be. to Iran and a much longer one to provided direct financial aid ful than Turkey’s before it was Pakistan has the world’s sixth Saudi Arabia. His phraseology, and morale-boosting assistance restrained. largest nuclear arsenal, fifth too, is seen to be significant. in kind at strategic moments. The Pakistani Army appears largest military and second “We want to improve ties with In May 1998, for instance, the to have judged it best to hedge Contributions largest population of Muslims. It Iran,” Khan said, even as he de- Saudis crucially helped Pakistan its bets, equivocate and assume and Editorial Queries also has, in the words of former scribed Saudi Arabia as “a friend proceed to nuclear tests in re- a neutral posture with respect [email protected] acting CIA Director Michael Mo- who has always stood by us in sponse to those of India. Riyadh to the Middle East. In Novem- rell, a dysfunctional economy difficult times.” promised 50,000 barrels of free ber, Pakistan’s army chief, Gen- and a record of support to jihad- This matters, at the very least, oil a day to offset the effect of eral Qamar Javed Bajwa, made a ists. Notably, the last redoubt as an interesting sidebar to the Western economic sanctions. 3-day official visit to Tehran, the Tunis Office of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin regional rivalry between Saudi Saudi support for a nuclear first trip of its kind in decades. Tel: (+ 216) 71 669 174 Laden was in Abbottabad, not Arabia and Iran and how it spills Pakistan is thought to rest on In July, his Iranian counterpart, Tel: (+216) 71 669 175 far from the Pakistani capital, over to Pakistan. Islamabad has the belief Islamabad would re- Mohammad Bagheri, repaid Islamabad. an outsized place in the Muslim spond in the event of an existen- the courtesy. Pakistan recently All of this would be reason world because of its status as a tial foreign threat to the House hosted Iranian, Russian and enough to pay close attention to nuclear power. of Saud and Muslim holy sites. Chinese intelligence chiefs to Pakistan but there is more. Paki- Though Pakistan is not in the Yoel Guzansky, formerly discuss the Islamic State in US Publisher: stan’s new prime minister took Middle East and North Africa in Israel’s National Security Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Bajwa the oath of office on August 18, region, it has long had key rela- Council and now a researcher at has visited Saudi Arabia many The Arab Weekly USA LLC. during the week of the 71st anni- tionships with some of the main Tel Aviv’s Institute for National times. And more Pakistani [email protected] versary of Pakistan’s independ- players. It has a 909km border Security Studies, mused about troops are promised to Riyadh. ence. In Prime Minister-desig- with Iran and the world’s largest Pakistan “openly granting [a] Clearly, Pakistan is neither [email protected] nate Imran Khan’s first speech Shia population outside of Iran. ‘nuclear umbrella’” to Saudi abandoning Riyadh nor for- Tel: 248-679-6634 after winning the election July Ironically, this makes Pakistan Arabia. Guzansky cited retired swearing Tehran. It wants to 25, he listed Pakistan’s relation- just as keen to maintain friendly Pakistani Army chief Raheel stand between the two, looking ship with Iran, Saudi Arabia and relations with Iran as it is sensi- Sharif’s promise in January 2016 both ways. Not only is that the Middle East — in that order tive to Saudi concerns about a that “any threat to Saudi Ara- physically impossible, it may — as very important. restive Shia minority influenced bia’s territorial integrity would be politically and economically Subscription & Advertising: The placement drew attention by Iran. evoke a strong response from dangerous. Mohamed Al Mufti Pakistan’s ties with Saudi because it seemed to shuffle Pakistan.” A year later, Sharif [email protected] Pakistan’s view of its alliances Arabia go back decades. It is a was appointed head of a new Rashmee Roshan Lall Tel: (+44) 20 8742 9262 in the Middle East. Tradition- helped fight the 1979 siege of counterterrorism alliance run columnist for The Arab Weekly. ally, it has been close to Saudi Mecca’s Grand Mosque; sta- out of Riyadh. Her blog can be found at Arabia but Pakistan’s incoming tioned military forces in Saudi So how do the new Pakistani www.rashmee.com and she is prime minister appeared to be Arabia during the Iran-Iraq prime minister’s stated foreign on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 August 19, 2018 News & Analysis Syria Russia makes public Turkey is banking on push for the return of Syria’s refugees summit diplomacy to

Sami Moubayed dan hosts approximately 1.4 million Syrians, draining the already slim re- sources of its 9.4 million residents. It head off Idlib battle Beirut has cost a fortune to house, feed and school them. his war is coming to an A change of heart was clearly ex- end” insists a wide assort- pressed in July 2017, when Amman “ ment of Syrian and Rus- closed its borders to more refugees Tsian officials, “and it is as the Russian Air Force pounded the now time for the refugees to return armed opposition in southern Syria. home.” Nothing better reflects a re- It is preparing to do business once turn to normalcy than the return of again with Damascus, after seven thousands of Syrians, being market- years of highly strained relations, ed as poster boys for victory by the through the reopening of the Nasib Russian government. border, recently restored to the Syr- The reasons behind such a rather ian Army. After recent Russian-Jor- sudden, yet very serious, effort are danian talks, Amman said approxi- numerous. The Russians are ped- mately 400,000 Syrians were due to dling it as a success story for the Rus- return home. sian Army, a “victory for civility over The Lebanese are more divided. jihadi terrorism.” Those who left Hezbollah wants them out, afraid were fleeing the Islamic State (ISIS) that if they stay for too long they and Jabhat al-Nusra, claim the Rus- might marry into Lebanese society sians, and they can now return to the and make it more difficult to uproot safety of their homes, “thanks to the them. The majority of the 1.5 mil- Russian Army.” lion Syrian refugees in Lebanon are “Moscow further wants the world Sunni Muslims, which would tip the to perceive it as not only the force delicate confessional balance in the that solved the conflict but as a be- country. The Saudi-backed March 14 nevolent power capable of resolving Alliance, which handles the portfo- the most severe refugee crisis since lio of Syrian refugees, wants them to the second world war,” said Dmi- stay, seeing them as steady income triy Frolovskiy, a senior Middle East for the treasury, in the absence of in- analyst. “It is important for Russia vestment and Gulf tourism. to project the return of refugees as The Turks are more at ease with a matter of global significance that the issue, having neatly divided its goes beyond politics and is in-line Syrian refugee population. Poten- with universally shared humanitar- tially useful Syrians — ranging from ian values.” craftsmen and artists to technicians Preparing for the new wave. A Turkish truck, carrying cement blocks typically used for blast walls, The Russians have set up a centre and medical doctors — have been waits to cross through the Syrian Bab al-Hawa crossing, on August 3. (AFP) with the Syrians, hoping to repatri- repatriated and all of them are pro- ate 1.7 million refugees, out of 5.6 Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the bone. million registered Syrian refugees Unwanted or potentially trouble- Thomas Seibert Idlib. Kalin said there is a meet- 12. In two separate incursions into worldwide by the end of the year. some refugees are to be repatriated ing planned for early September Syria since 2016, Turkish troops The website of the Russian defence to a buffer zone the Turkish Army in Tehran and to be attended by have secured control over areas in minister said 2,643 refugees had re- has been carving out on the Syrian- Istanbul Erdogan, Russian leader Vladimir Afrin, to the north of Idlib, and in turned to Syria from Lebanon since Turkish border, in cities such as Ja- Putin and Iranian President Has- Jarabulus, farther to the east. July 18 and the United Nations said rabulus, Azaz and al-Bab. To please urkey hopes to use upcom- san Rohani and Erdogan has said After years of caring for up to 3.5 750,000 internally displaced Syrians the Russians, it might force a small ing international meetings another summit, bringing togeth- million Syrian refugees at a cost had been repatriated since January. number of them — 300,000 — home, on Syria to head off an ex- er the leaders of Turkey, Russia, of $32 billion, as indicated by gov- The Russians are pushing for the adding credibility to the Russian ef- T pected onslaught by Syrian Germany and France, is to take ernment figures, public sentiment creation of a portfolio of “Refugee Af- forts. government troops in the border place in Istanbul on September 7. in Turkey is turning against the fairs” in Damascus. Although originally uneasy about province of Idlib that could send Also in early September, the Syrians. During the campaign for The Russian Defence Ministry has the sudden return of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people United Nations will have talks elections in June, Erdogan prom- set up the Joint Coordination Centre Damascus has seemingly caved into fleeing into Turkish territory. with Turkey, Russia and Iran in ised the refugees would go home (JCC) with the Syrian government, the idea as well, convinced that Ankara is treading carefully Geneva about the formation of a soon. Ankara said several hundred dedicated exclusively to refugee it can use them to attract donors in its efforts to prevent another committee that would write a new thousand Syrians have returned to return, with four branches on the and international aid, just like Jor- refugee influx because it does not constitution for a post-war Syria. their country to settle in Afrin and Syrian-Lebanese border, Damascus dan and Lebanon have done since want to upend its alliance with Turkey’s immediate goal is to Jarabulus. International Airport, Baniyas on the 2011. Thousands of young men will Russia in the middle of a row with gain time and to convince Russia Syrian coast and one in the city of fill a giant gap left behind in soci- the United States that has fuelled a to restrain Syrian forces in Idlib Deir ez-Zor on the Euphrates River. ety, finding their way into the labour currency crisis in Turkey. but it is unclear whether Moscow A fifth was being prepared in the an- force, student body and compulsory The United Nations said up to is willing or able to put the neces- cient city of Palmyra, which the Rus- armed service. 2.5 million people could be dis- sary pressure on Syrian President Ankara is treading sians liberated from the Islamic State The Syrian government has per- placed by fighting in Idlib, the last Bashar Assad. carefully in its efforts to in late 2017. sistently refused to issue a general rebel-held area in Syria where op- “It would be a massacre to bomb prevent another refugee On August 1, the JCC convened in pardon, insisting on a case-by-case position fighters and their families Idlib, civilians, hospitals, schools influx because it does Moscow and pledged “voluntary re- study of returning refugees. Those from other parts of the war-torn just because there are terrorists,” not want to upend its refugees wanted for military con country have found refuge. Syria’s Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut patriation” of Syrian refugees, “with - alliance with Russia. security guarantees, recognition of scription are still being drafted into government, backed by Russia and Cavusoglu said on August 14 dur- property rights, and non-persecu- the army, although given a 6-month Iran, said it wants to fight “terror- ing talks with Russian Foreign tion.” It promised “amnesty guar- grace period before enlisting. Those ists” in Idlib and return the prov- Minister Sergei Lavrov in Ankara. antees” and “unimpeded access” to wanted for political reasons or for ince to Damascus’s control. Reports quoting Syrian opposition international aid. The Syrian govern- having carried arms at the onset Under an agreement with Rus- activists claim Turkish forces were A new Turkish intervention to ment, it added, has reached a “full of the Syrian war are only being al- sia and Iran, Turkey has built 12 equipping their observation posts secure another part of northern understanding on these basic prin- lowed back in if they join and sup- observation posts in Idlib and de- in Idlib with anti-aircraft weapons Syria is unlikely, however, said ciples.” port the Russian-led reconciliation ployed about 1,000 soldiers in the to deter possible air strikes by Da- Joe Macaron, a fellow at the Arab Russian officials have recently process. province on the Turkish border. mascus. Centre in Washington. He said been visiting countries with sig- Donor assistance to returning As a long-time supporter of Erdogan’s statement about new nificant Syrian populations, such as Syrians has been shy due to the re- several rebel groups operating in “safe zones” was primarily for do- Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, France, luctance of Europe and the United Idlib, Turkey faces the task of dis- mestic consumption because the Greece, Sweden, Portugal, Germany States to openly admit defeat in Syr- arming some of the militias under president was trying to reassure and Estonia. They expect approxi- ia. Most countries repeated time and Turkey’s immediate goal is agreements with Russia and Iran Turks the government would pre- mately 300,000 to return from Tur- again that they would never join the to gain time and to convince but that is proving difficult. -Re vent a new mass inflow of Syrians. key and up to 200,000 from the Eu- reconstruction process if Bashar As- ports said Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a “Turkish forces have reached their ropean Union. Modest numbers, no sad remains in power. Russia to restrain Syrian jihadist group linked to al-Qaeda limits in northern Syria,” Macaron doubt, given that Turkey hosts 2.6 The first to silently backtrack forces in Idlib. that is the dominant rebel force in wrote via e-mail. million Syrians, 600,000 live in Ger- was France, delivering 40 tonnes of Idlib, rejected Ankara’s demand to Erdogan would not risk his part- many and another 116,000 reside in aid to residents of Eastern Ghouta, disband and integrate into a pro- nership with Russia over Idlib, Sweden. through a joint operation with the Turkish rebel force in the area. Macaron added. “Russia and Tur- Most countries have been very re- Russians. Eastern Ghouta is no long- “We need to differentiate be- key are closer more than ever and sponsive, eager to rid themselves of er in the hands of the armed opposi- Turkish President Recep Tayyip tween moderate rebels and radi- in a united front against US sanc- the financial and security burdens tion but fully controlled by the Syr- Erdogan said diplomatic and mili- cals,” Cavusoglu said. “The local tions on both countries,” he wrote. of the Syrians. The enthusiasm for ian Army since April. If more money tary efforts in Idlib had been ac- people and the moderate rebels “Idlib might test but will not break hosting them, which peaked in 2015, doesn’t start coming as planned, celerated to avoid a “catastrophe” are very disturbed by these ter- their alliance.” has generally fizzled out. Those who Damascus hopes to have these same like those in other parts of Syria. rorists so we need to fight against Given that priority, Turkey can integrated into society and learned refugees rebuild their towns and vil- Turkey closed its border with Idlib them all together.” be expected to seek compromise the language of their host countries lages, providing them with security but the United Nations is asking Erdogan has suggested that Tur- solutions. “Erdogan is vulnerable will be welcome but those involved and basic services such as electricity, Ankara to allow refugees passage key was willing to carve out “safe now and needs Russia’s backing in criminal activity will likely have water and building materials. if the expected fighting drives ci- zones” in northern Syria to house to survive the trade war with [US their refugee status revoked and be vilians from their homes. refugees from Idlib. “God willing President Donald] Trump; hence shipped back to Syria. Sami Moubayed is a Syrian historian Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim soon we will have liberated more Ankara might have to be flexible The situation is different in the and author of “Under the Black Kalin called on Damascus to stop places and made more areas safe,” on Idlib moving forward,” Maca- Arab neighbourhood, however. Jor- Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). preparations for the attack on Erdogan said in a speech August ron said. August 19, 2018 9 News & Analysis Lebanon Hezbollah control of the Bekaa Valley threatened as Lebanon mulls legalising medicinal cannabis

Nicholas Blanford alternative legal agriculture. Within a few years, the Bekaa was deemed drug free but pledged Beirut funding for the UNDP effort did not materialise in its entirety and n Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Val- the programme fizzled out by ley, fields of lush green spiky- 2002. leaved cannabis plants have Lebanon has been beset the mul- I reached chest height ahead tiple political crises and conflicts of harvest in September, which since 2005 that allowed farmers will bring in much-needed cash to return to cannabis cultivation to farmers in the impoverished as security forces often had more region who have grown the illegal pressing demands. The northern crop for decades. Bekaa has a strong tribal society in Attempts by the Lebanese gov- which loyalty to the clan trumps ernment to destroy the crops were allegiance to the state and farm- met with fierce resistance from ers do not hesitate to use weapons farmers who show little compunc- against the Lebanese authorities. tion in taking to arms to protect It is too early to say how the their livelihoods. Lebanese government will organ- However, Lebanon is mulling ise legal cannabis cultivation but it the prospect of legalising cannabis will likely run along similar lines to cultivation for medicinal purpos- tobacco in which a farmer is given es, a step that could bring money a licence to grow a certain quantity to the northern Bekaa Valley and that will then be purchased by the reduce lawlessness in the area. It state at an agreed price. could also deter young Shia men Much will depend on how the from the Bekaa Valley from joining process is governed and policed. the Iran-backed Hezbollah if they The legalisation of cannabis cul- have an alternative means of earn- tivation will likely send black- ing an income. market prices soaring as the crop While some farmers are optimis- is sold to the state at a fixed rate tic that legalising cannabis would rather than to drug dealers as in Lucrative crop. A worker cultivates plants at a cannabis plantation in the village of Yammouneh in bring much-needed money to the the past. While some cannabis Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley. (AFP) Bekaa, many express cynicism is sold domestically, most of it is that it will be locals who benefit. exported to Europe and the Gulf metres. Residents of the Bekaa Valley the elections in May, many Shia “The politicians will keep the countries, generating huge profits One party that has yet to pub- have long grumbled that Hezbol- residents of the Bekaa refused to money and we will have nothing. for the dealers, if not the farmers. licly comment on the proposal to lah uses its political clout to keep vote or chose anti-Hezbollah can- It has always been this way and If the price of black-market can- legalise cannabis is Hezbollah. the area impoverished so people didates in a sign of dissatisfaction legalising hashish will not change nabis escalates significantly due to The Bekaa Valley is known as the are dependent on the organisation. with the party. anything,” said a member of the the reduction of available quanti- “barracks of Hezbollah” and has A recruit can earn $600 a month Hezbollah will have to work powerful Jaafar clan and a major ties, it could encourage farmers been its main recruiting pool since and have access to Hezbollah’s hard to shore up its support base hashish farmer from the northern to grow an additional field of can- the organisation crystallised in the extensive social welfare system of in the Bekaa, especially with the Bekaa. nabis out of sight to sell to deal- early 1980s. In recent years, the schools, hospitals and clinics. That civil war in Syria beginning to ease Lebanon has toyed with the ers while the authorised crop is scale of recruitment has soared as can be a powerful incentive for and thousands of fighters expect- idea of legalising cannabis culti- sold to the state at a lower rate. It Hezbollah urgently needed com- joining when there is a dearth of ed to return to Lebanon. vation for years but it gained trac- is unclear in a country where cor- batants to fight in Syria on behalf other income opportunities. If — and it remains a big if — can- tion recently when McKinsey & ruption is rife whether authorities of the regime of Syrian President nabis is legalised and a system is Company, the global consultancy have the means and will to ensure Bashar Assad. While some farmers are introduced that provides comfort- firm, recommended it as one way only licensed crops are grown. The traditionally rigorous na- optimistic that legalising able earnings for farmers, it could of beefing up Lebanon’s cash- “This is Lebanon. They [the ture of the recruitment process in cannabis would bring threaten to chip away at Hezbol- strapped economy. farmers] will find a way to beat which a candidate undergoes an much-needed money to the lah’s recruitment pool and even the system. A farmer could grow During Lebanon’s civil war extensive vetting process, inten- Bekaa, many express encourage recently joined fighters years, the plain of the northern 3 dunams of hashish for the gov- sive religious and ideological stud- to quit the organisation. Bekaa was awash with cannabis ernment and around the corner, ies and thorough military training cynicism that it will be and opium poppies, generating hidden away, another dunam for all lasting more than a year was re- locals who benefit. Nicholas Blanford is the author some $500 million a year. After the himself,” said Abbas, a long-stand- placed in some cases with a mere Hezbollah, however, is begin- of “Warriors of God: Inside war ended, the UN Development ing cannabis farmer from a village month-long training course at ning to feel a backlash from some Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Programme (UNDP) began an ini- near Baalbek. A dunam is approxi- camps in the Bekaa before being quarters of the Bekaa Valley. Al- Struggle Against Israel” (Random tiative to eradicate drug crops for mately equivalent to 900 square dispatched to Syria’s battlefields. though Hezbollah fared well in House 2011). Viewpoint For Lebanon, US sanctions wait at the gates

he Middle East has Hezbollah General-Secretary that accompany it. decision to allow commercial entered a new and Hassan Nasrallah, in a recent Even with such cuts to its banks in Lebanon to resched- perhaps more perilous speech, downplayed the repercus- budget, Hezbollah needs to attend ule payments on loans issued in Makram Rabah stage as the Trump ad- sions of the US sanctions on Iran to the hundreds of wounded veter- Lebanese pounds, provided they ministration proceeds and his own outfit, arrogantly ans, some of whom are permanent- transfer those funds to dollars. with placing sanctions affirming that Hezbollah’s militia ly disabled, as well as the families These anti-inflation measures are Ton Iran, as well as doubling tariffs was still able to go to war with of thousands of fighters killed. one of the growing number of wor- on Turkey’s steel imports. Israel, should the need arise. Practically, Hezbollah’s financial rying indicators that the Central While these measures are unre- Yet Nasrallah’s populist rhetoric circumstances can only deterio- Bank of Lebanon is bracing itself lated, they signal the opening of a does little to hide Lebanon’s crum- rate. The US sanctions against Iran for collapse, thus giving the lie to new economic front, introducing bling economic circumstances, are designed specifically, not to talk of business as normal. the notion of sanctions as a potent coupled with his sponsor Iran’s so much punish Tehran for any The protesters in bazaars in Iran and unconventional method of deteriorating economy, the effects supposed breach of the nuclear might soon be joined by Lebanese wreaking devastation on many of of which are starting to tell on deal, but to curtail its spreading on the streets of Beirut, who will the smaller countries of the region Hezbollah’s military and civilian military reach across the region. chant anti-Hezbollah slogans. The and, in particular, on Lebanon. structure. It is this reach that Hezbollah has Lebanese might have stayed quiet Nowhere has this been more Hezbollah, like many of Leba- been instrumental in spearhead- over Hezbollah’s takeover of gov- apparent than in the visible effects non’s financial establishments, ing in Lebanon and elsewhere and, ernment and all that accompanied taking shape in Hezbollah and has been undergoing restructuring by extension, exposing its host’s that. However, they are unlikely to Lebanon’s fragile banking appara- measures intended to cut costs and economic backbone, the banking remain silent when their economy tus. downsize its staff, some of whom sector, to untenable risks. collapses under the weight of the For the past decade, the Leba- have not received their salaries for The looming spectre of sanctions US and perhaps even Arab sanc- nese state has been spiralling months. More important, Hez- forced all Lebanese banks to coop- tions. downward, propelled mainly by bollah’s constant talk of its final erate fully with the US Treasury. Nasrallah and Turkish President its political elite’s corruption and, withdrawal from Syria, while based However, that cooperation has Recep Tayyip Erdogan have relied more important, their failure to in part on political and military been passive rather than proac- heavily in their fiery speeches work through the regional chal- factors, reflects Iran’s shrinking tive, principally out of concern for on calls for divine intervention. lenges brought about by the Sunni- ability to meet the costs of Hezbol- repercussions that Hezbollah and However, in matters related to the Shia schism and Iran’s expansionist lah’s deployment and mobilisation Iran might enact. economy, God helps those who policies. there. To steady the ship, the Central help themselves, an expression The protesters in For Iran, or at least its Islamic Proof can be found in the Bank of Lebanon and the wider whose meaning appears to have bazaars in Iran might Revolutionary Guard Corps, bureaucracy of its war. Hezbollah banking sector unequivocally eluded the Lebanese and their soon be joined by Lebanon has been a success story, recently downgraded Syria’s status confirmed the US sanctions would leaders. with Hezbollah infiltrating Shia from “land of jihad,” thus reducing not damage the economy. How- Lebanese on the society and the state, proclaiming the cost of maintaining its force ever, simultaneous to that, many Makram Rabah is a lecturer at streets of Beirut, who itself and its arsenal legitimate and there, with Hezbollah fighters now of the measures they are adopting the American University of Beirut exposing Lebanon and its fragile receiving only their basic salary indicate otherwise. and author of “A Campus at War: will chant anti- economy to Western economic ($600 a month) with no danger pay One ominous indicator of the Student Politics at the American Hezbollah slogans. sanctions. or any of the additional subsidies dangers ahead is the central bank’s University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” 10 August 19, 2018 News & Analysis Egypt Egypt fears new wave of Muslim Brotherhood violence

Amr Emam

Cairo

foiled attack on a church in eastern Cairo confirmed that the terrorist threat A posed by radical Islamist groups in Egypt, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, remains high despite a heavy nationwide security crackdown, analysts warned. A suicide bomber, whom local media linked to the Muslim Broth- erhood, tried to enter the historic Virgin Mary Church in Mostorod in eastern Cairo on August 11. Secu- rity personnel outside the church stopped the intruder and the 29-year-old man set off a bomb out- side of the church, killing himself. There were no civilian casualties. Although no group claimed re- sponsibility for the attack, security analysts quickly fingered the out- lawed Muslim Brotherhood as being behind it. After the attack, security forces arrested seven people suspected of involvement in planning the bomb- ing. “The (Brotherhood) movement Persistent threat. Members of the Egyptian security forces form a perimeter at the scene of a suicide bombing in Mostorod in eastern is still alive and able to pose serious Cairo, on August 11. (AFP) threats to the security of our coun- try,” said retired Egyptian General Gamal Eddin Mazloum. “We should tions is the lack of criminal records sume that a surge in Brotherhood group, said the Brotherhood had a an upscale Cairo neighbourhood not be deceived by the Brother- for most of the group’s members. violence will happen in the com- well-calculated plan to destabilise and “played a prominent role… in hood’s exit from politics or the os- “This made it almost impossi- ing days, weeks or months,” Ma- Egypt. The Brotherhood’s organisa- promoting extremist ideas and pro- tensible weakening of its terrorist ble for security agencies to know zloum said. “The movement needs tional structure and decision-mak- viding financial support.” arms.” the people who stood behind the to prove that it is still present and ing bodies, Abo Hashim told the pri- One day after the arrests, police The attack outside the Coptic repeated attacks that took place its organisational structure far from vate Sada el-Balad channel, are still killed six Brotherhood militants out- church in Mostorod was the lat- nationwide,” said Sameh Eid, a dead.” functioning. side Cairo. The militants reportedly est in a long series of violent acts Brotherhood dissident who has be- Almost all the members of the had arms and explosives and were by groups believed to be affiliated come an expert in jihadist groups in One of the challenges first line of Brotherhood leadership, apparently preparing for a series of with the Muslim Brotherhood since Egypt. “This meant that these agen- including the movement’s supreme attacks, police said. the ouster of Islamist President Mu- cies were required to fight an enemy facing Egypt’s security guide, his deputies and Morsi, are One of the challenges Egypt faces hammad Morsi in an army-backed about whom they had no informa- forces in cracking down in Egyptian jails. However, many in limiting Brotherhood violence is popular uprising in 2013. Several tion whatsoever.” on violent Brotherhood members of the second line of lead- to eradicate the organisation and its Brotherhood-affiliated groups Nonetheless, security forces factions is the lack of ership fled to Turkey, Qatar or the ideology, not its members. emerged after the uprising, includ- uncovered many members of the criminal records for most United Kingdom and could still pose “The mistake the security estab- ing many who targeted Egypt’s Cop- movement. The fear is, however, of the group’s members. a threat. lishment committed as it faced the tic Christian minority. Others at- that disaffected young Egyptians National security agencies warned Brotherhood was that it fought the tacked police and army personnel. could become radicalised, injecting The Mostorod attack coincided that Muslim Brotherhood operatives dangerous members of the group Egypt has also been fighting a new blood into the fight. with statements by a Muslim Broth- in Egypt were receiving funding but hardly tried to fight its ideol- branch of the Islamic State (ISIS) The August 11 attack proves that erhood renegade to an Egyptian pri- from abroad to carry out attacks. ogy,” said Mounir Adib, an expert on in the Sinai Peninsula, splitting the radical Islamist terrorism poses a vate TV channel intimating that the The seven suspected militants Islamist movements. “To fight this national security establishment’s potent threat in Egypt and it will threat is far from over. arrested in the church attack have ideology, Egypt needs more than focus to fight on numerous fronts. likely be followed by other attempts Emad Abo Hashim, a former been charged with plotting a “series just a security crackdown.” One of the challenges facing by the Brotherhood to destabilise judge who fled to Turkey following of hostilities” against national secu- Egypt’s security forces in cracking Egypt, analysts warned. Morsi’s ouster where he joined the rity. One of the female suspects, the Amr Emam is a Cairo-based down on violent Brotherhood fac- “There are good reasons to as- pro-Brotherhood Judges for Egypt Interior Ministry said, was living in contributor to The Arab Weekly.

Viewpoint When an Egyptian actress sheds the veil, what message does it send? fter giving up acting wearing the hijab in Muslim socie- adepts to change, not as a sign of daughter of Khairat el-Shater, a and wearing the hijab ties was a sign of their success in religious defiance but as a sign of Muslim Brotherhood figure. Both for 12 years, Egyptian infiltrating them and have striven distaste with the Brotherhood’s women were active in promoting actress Hala Shiha to generalise the experience. Every stances. the Brotherhood. Hisham al-Najjar said she was taking time a popular figure joined their For decades, the Brotherhood Shiha’s announcement that she off the veil and would cause, they would claim that was used religious arguments to was removing her veil and return- returnA to acting. More than a social as proof of Islamist discourse. impose the hijab as an instrument ing to acting must have been a phenomenon, Shiha’s act has po- However, when a well-known of control not to be challenged. shock to the Brotherhood. Khadija litical implications that especially person rejected the Islamists’ It used all means to impose it on el-Shater posted on her Facebook ruffled the Muslim Brotherhood’s narrative, the Brotherhood would Egyptian society so much so that it page that: “Hala, today the rumour worldview. counterattack, using ad hominem has become rare to find active op- of you abandoning the hijab slew Shiha was a weighty reference arguments and claiming the person ponents to the movement. me. Today all of Allah’s devotees in a social transformation that was no longer believable or influ- The Brotherhood, for example, are crying and their hearts are touched many women in Egypt ential. used Egypt’s defeat in the 1967 bleeding sadness. They’re hoping but who reversed their decision of Shiha’s case is reminiscent of war with Israel to argue that the that the rumour is false. Lights and wearing the hijab following politi- developments in Iran in 2009 when direct causes of the defeat were demons are waiting for you outside cal changes in Egypt since 2011. women defied the mullahs and the fact that the society swerved their circle. This world is transient, The actress told Egyptian televi- removed their hijabs in public as a from Allah’s virtuous path and full of seduction and misguiding sion presenter Wael al-Ibrashi that sign of liberation — not from reli- that Egyptian women abandoned lustre. Do come out and show the she wanted to relaunch her career gion per se but from governmental Islamic garb. world your hijab and beautiful because she felt she had a lot to oppression. For the Iranian regime, The Muslim Brothers could heart. I’m convinced that you’ll give to her art. She said the hijab the hijab was the outer symbol of not hide their anger and rancour never be lost again.” and niqab did not define women, its control over Iranian society. towards Shiha. They considered Proselytising Brotherhood activ- ethically speaking, and that her For the Muslim Brotherhood, her abandoning the hijab as a ist Mohamed Shuman declared: decision to wear the hijab was per- the hijab was an extension of an major blow, particularly because “I considered Hala a model for me sonal and that her decision to give ideology that began with the writ- they had previously hammered her and my daughter. Shame!” it up was personal, too. ings of the group’s founder, Hassan adopting the hijab as a definitive Salafist activist Mohamed Whether intentional or not, al-Banna, which seek to control the sign of their victory. The Brothers el-Sawi published a video clip of Shiha’s decision laid bare a lengthy thinking of its followers. The hijab had promoted the veiled actress as himself crying and praying to Allah period of political manipulation became a symbol of that control. a model for female believers. to return Shiha to her senses. Despite the and manoeuvring in political When it spreads, the ideology Shiha was a rising star of Egyp- The Brotherhood has considered Brotherhood’s Islam. The Muslim Brotherhood grows. When it disappears, the tian cinema in the mid-2000s. In the art scene in Egypt as anti-Is- said the actress’s decision to take ideology loses ground. 2004, she was at the top of her lamic so every artist they recruited attempts, the veil is off the hijab was a strong symbolic The Brotherhood is not worried popularity when she starred with to their cause represented impor- slowly being lifted on blow to its social achievements. about the number of followers Adel Imam in “Arees Menn Gehha tant publicity material. Despite the the artificially The Muslim Brotherhood con- wearing the hijab as much as it Amneya” (“A Groom from the Brotherhood’s attempts, however, flates wearing of hijab or niqab is concerned when well-known Security Entity”), one of his most the veil is slowly being lifted on the imposed value with adherence to religious duties. converts to its ideology shed the successful films, but unexpect- artificially imposed value system system of the The Brotherhood uses the wearing teachings of the organisation. edly announced her retirement of the merchants of religion. of the veil as a measure of social Unfortunately for the Muslim from acting and disappeared from merchants of encroachment. Many political Brotherhood, recent days have public view. Shiha was a long-time Hisham al-Najjar is an Egyptian religion. Islamist groups said the spread of seen a tendency among its female friend of Khadija el-Shater, the writer. August 19, 2018 11 News & Analysis Palestine Israel Israel doubles down on intimidation tactics to silence Jewish critics Mahmud el-Shafey Culture of fear. London A security officer leads fter Jewish-American com- a dog as he mentator Peter Beinart was patrols the detained and questioned entrance of Ben Gurion at an Israeli airport — one A Internatio- of a series of similar incidents — there are questions as to how Israel nal airport is dealing with its Jewish critics. near Tel Beinart, a contributor to CNN and Aviv. (AFP) the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, was questioned by border officials at Ben Gurion International Airport about his political activities and views. Beinart is a self-described supporter of Israel but has criticised Tel Aviv’s position on many issues, particularly its policies towards the Palestinians and close alliance with US President Donald Trump. In an opinion piece for the For- ward, a liberal Jewish publication, Beinart said an Israeli security of- ficial questioned him in detail about his attendance at anti-gov- ernment protests and his history with groups, such as the Centre for Jewish Nonviolence, that criticise Israeli government policy towards the Palestinians. Israel sought to play down the incident as an “administrative mistake” and the Shin Bet domes- tic security agency apologised and promised a review but Beinart has remained firm in his views. “[Is- raeli Prime Minister] Binyamin Ne- she said after the incident. to left-wing organisations such as night. This government is appar- views on Netanyahu. tanyahu has half-apologised for my In June, left-wing activist and Breaking the Silence and All That’s ently introducing the norms of a This is a situation that angered detention yesterday [August 12] at journalist Yehudit Ilani was de- Left, both of which criticise the Is- thought police and trying to intimi- many in Israel, who warn that criti- Ben Gurion airport. I’ll accept when tained after returning to Israel from raeli occupation. Israeli officials date normative citizens so they’ll cising governmental policy on Pal- he apologises to all the Palestinians Europe after reporting on prepara- described the Rothman-Zecher in- cease their civic engagement,” she estine is becoming impossible. and Palestinian-Americans who tions for a flotilla to the Gaza Strip cident as a “cautionary conversa- said. “It is now beyond doubt that every day endure far worse,” he on behalf of Israel Social TV, a He- tion.” Jewish pro-boycott activist Ariel the Netanyahu government has tweeted. brew-language news site identified Rothman-Zecher’s lawyer, Gaby Gold was denied entry into Israel in turned its border crossings into in- This is not the first time that a with the left. Lasky, had a different take. “The July under a law passed last year al- terrogation chambers,” said Daniel Jewish critic of Israel has been in In July, Jewish-American philan- fact that Shin Bet investigators lowing Tel Aviv to bar entry of sup- Sokatch, the CEO of the New Israel an interrogation room in recent thropist Meyer Koplow was ques- wait for Israeli citizens, whose only porters of the boycott, divestment, Fund, reacting to the reports on months. tioned at Ben Gurion International crime is involvement in human sanctions movement. Zimmerman’s interrogation. Israeli peace activist Tanya Ru- Airport after security personnel re- rights organisations, to caution American Jewish activist Si- “The government is demonstrat- binstein was held at the same air- portedly found a Palestinian leaflet them ought to keep us all awake at mone Zimmerman, a co-founder ing once again that the test for port in May when she returned in his luggage. Koplow has donated of the IfNotNow group, a progres- entering the country is a political from a conference in Sweden. Ru- millions of dollars to Israeli hospi- Daniel Sokatch, sive American-Jewish organisation one — either you agree with Prime binstein is the general coordinator tals and schools but his latest visit CEO of the New opposing the Israeli occupation of Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s of the Coalition of Women for Peace to the country included a trip to Israel Fund the West Bank and Gaza Strip, was ultra-right-wing coalition or you’re and has been critical of Tel Aviv’s the West Bank with the Encounters stopped in early August at the bor- subject to questioning, intimida- policy towards the Palestinians. Programmes, a non-partisan organ- der between Egypt and Israel, along tion or refusal. This may be legal “We act to expose the effects isation that takes Jews to Palestin- with fellow activist Abby Kirsch- but it’s morally unacceptable and of the Gaza siege and the occupa- ian areas to meet Palestinians. “It is now beyond doubt that baum. anti-democratic,” he added. tion on the residents, especially on In the same month, Israeli author the Netanyahu government Zimmerman said they were women. That’s exactly what Israel Moriel Rothman-Zecher was de- has turned its border crossings questioned solely about their po- Mahmud el-Shafey is an Arab doesn’t want the public to hear,” tained at the airport about his ties into interrogation chambers.” litical activities, including their Weekly correspondent in London.

Viewpoint Palestinian refugees in Jordan stand to lose from Kushner’s Middle East plan

S President Don- ter the war in 1948, which caused of a “root-and-branch reform.” refugees,” said Gunness. ald Trump’s senior 700,000 Palestinians to flee their “We have saved tens of millions Aside from the emotional aspect adviser and son-in- homes. Another 325,000 left in from the donor community,” said of the right of return, removing the Kaja Bouman law, Jared Kushner, 1967 after the Six Day War. Almost UNRWA spokesman Christopher Palestinians’ refugee status, and reportedly tried to half of the people in the camps live Gunness, “but since the US de- with it the right of return, could convince Jordan below the poverty line. cided to defund the organisation, be a positive development for the Uthat it should remove the refugee Most of the refugees don’t have we’ve had to cut our emergency Palestinians in Jordan. Those liv- status of the 2 million Palestinians social security numbers, because programmes, which include food, ing in refugee camps could move living in the Arab country. Jordan provided them with tempo- cash for work and mental health elsewhere in the country and build A report in Foreign Policy maga- rary passports. Strict Jordanian services.” their lives in Jordan. However, this zine stated that Kushner raised the laws make it increasingly hard for If Jordan assents to Kushner’s can only happen if Jordan accepts issue in June during his visit to Jor- Palestinians to work without a so- request and removes the refugee them as full Jordanian citizens. dan. Removing the Palestinians’ cial security number. UNRWA said status of Palestinians in Jordan, it The United States contemplates refugee status appears to be part of Palestinian refugees often have could mean the end of UNRWA. cutting all funding for UNRWA and a greater plan to end the existence trouble renewing their temporary UNRWA, however, is not only providing aid to Jordan instead but of the UN Relief and Works Agency passports because of high fees. a humanitarian organisation; Amman never wanted to accept for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). UNRWA provides Palestinian it’s also political. The agency Palestinians as its citizens and In January, the United States refugees in the camps with health preserves the right of return there’s no reason to believe it can said it was withholding $65 mil- care, women’s centres and educa- granted to the Palestinians in UN take care of Palestinians in their lion from UNRWA. The United tion. The agency hosts 171 schools Resolution 194, which states that current position as refugees. Even States for a long time has been the with more than 121,000 students. refugees wishing to go home and if Jordan could financially afford to agency’s largest donor, keeping the The children go to school from age live in peace with their neighbours take care of the refugees, its state organisation alive with more than 6 to 16 and can get an additional will be allowed to do so as soon as institutions are weak and most $364 million in 2017. two years of education from the possible. likely incapable of providing the However, US President Donald Jordanian government. Higher Most Palestinian refugees, espe- same support as UNRWA. If Jordan assents to Trump questioned the wisdom of education is not an option for cially those living in dire circum- Unless Jordan changes its atti- Kushner’s request providing aid when the Palestin- most Palestinians growing up in stances, wish to someday return to tude towards Palestinians, putting and removes the ian Authority refuses to resume the camps. Without a social secu- their homes in Israel. “We believe full responsibility in the hands of peace talks. In e-mails published rity number, they’re charged the that all UN resolutions must be im- Jordan instead of UNRWA would refugee status of in Foreign Policy, Kushner called same as foreign students, which is plemented. How the right of return lead to chaos and fast deteriora- Palestinians in UNRWA “corrupt and inefficient.” almost double the price Jordanian is implemented is up to the parties tion of the situation. Of the 2 million Palestinian refu- students pay. in the negotiations but it must be Jordan, it could mean gees in Jordan, 370,000 live in one Since the budget cuts this year, in accordance with international Kaja Bouman is a Dutch journalist the end of UNRWA. of the ten refugee camps set up af- UNRWA has been in the process law and in consultation with the in Jerusalem. 12 August 19, 2018 News & Analysis Libya Muslim Brotherhood opponent announces bid for Libyan elections

Lamine Ghanmi been seen in public for years and there are questions about the le- gitimacy of the campaign. He is Tunis wanted by the International Crim- inal Court on charges of crimes ormer Libyan Ambassador against humanity committed dur- Aref Nayed, an avowed ing his father’s attempt to quash opponent of the Muslim the 2011 rebellion. F Brotherhood, announced Nayed urged “reconciliation be- he will run in Libya’s presidential tween all Libyans to pull together elections in December on a plat- Libya out of its destructive 7-year- form of anti-corruption and eco- old conflict.” He said Libyans must nomic diversification. stop focusing on the “painful and “I’m a candidate for the presi- ugly parts of Libya’s past” and the dential elections with this pro- “leaders of the times that passed.” gramme, which is a plan for na- “With this way of thinking and tional renewal and transformation feeling we cannot build a state by 2023,” Nayed said at a news and restore peace and security,” he conference in Tunis. said. Nayed, 56, is an Islamic scholar Instead, he said, Libyans should who has lectured on Islamic theol- “emphasise the bright aspects of ogy, logic and spirituality. Under every period in the long history of the regime of dictator Muammar Libya and the good achievements Qaddafi, he supervised graduate of previous leaders and personali- studies at the International Islam- ties. We shall put all these positive ic College in Tripoli. aspects together and move for- ward. “We must be happy with all the Nayed said the elections diversity in Libya, its history, cul- should go ahead and that tures and people and its good val- Libyans “are fed up with the ues of love, hospitality, openness slow process of the and togetherness.” Hopes for renewal. Former Libyan Ambassador Aref Nayed. (AFP) UN-backed peace plan.” The four key leaders in Libya — Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the UN-backed govern- accord, said the elections should able development.” foreign interference. Nayed is a fierce opponent of ment in Tripoli; Field-Marshal go ahead and that Libyans “are fed “Libya will only go forward UN Special Envoy to Libya Ghas- the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya, Khalifa Haftar, Libya’s eastern up with the slow process of the by preventing further conflict san Salame, in a July assessment which he accused of “being associ- military leader; Aguila Saleh Issa, UN-backed peace plan.” through reconciliation, profes- on Libya for the UN Security Coun- ated with terrorism and assassina- president of the House of Repre- He said he would campaign sionalising security institutions, cil, warned of dire conditions and tions” and “being sympathetic to sentatives; and Khalid al-Mishri, across Libya to rally support. ensuring equitable access to jus- that planned elections could not the fascist Italian ideology.” head of the Council of State — en- “I will be crisscrossing the coun- tice and maintaining law and or- take place in the current circum- In 2011, Nayed became the first dorsed — but did not sign — a state- try to rally young people, women der,” he said. stances. ambassador appointed in the post- ment calling for “credible, peace- and leading tribe figures and pro- “Libya will build a democratic, Libya, he said, was on the verge Qaddafi era, serving as Libya’s en- ful parliamentary and presidential fessionals for the Ihya Libya (Libya transparent and accountable gov- of economic collapse, terrorists voy to the United Arab Emirates. elections on December 10,” which Renewal) project. I will start from ernment at both the national and were “lurking,” the number of for- He is the second person believed critics dismissed as unrealistic and the south, which is neglected by municipal levels that will be man- eign mercenaries growing, human to be running for Libya’s elec- potentially counterproductive. the government in Tripoli and left aged by professional and commit- trafficking and human rights con- tion, scheduled for December 10. The parties also agreed to es- reeling from lawlessness and un- ted public servants.” tinuing and the plight of refugees Qaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam is also tablish a constitutional basis for derdevelopment,” he said. Nayed warned that Libyans’ and asylum seekers was dire. to run, his supporters announced elections and adopt the necessary Nayed promised Libyans “peace, patience was wearing thin and in March. electoral laws by September 16. security and the rule of law that that locals could forge a solu- Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly Saif al-Islam, however, has not Nayed, who said he supports the are the prerequisites for sustain- tion without UN support or correspondent in Tunis. Viewpoint Without strong political will, Libya’s elections uncertain

lans for Libya’s referen- Within the HoR there exists deep ther cause for procrastination. has gone mad. dum on a new constitu- opposition to both elections and However, Libya does not need a Sarraj also claims to want elec- tion on September 16 the proposed constitution. Opposi- new constitution for elections to tions. He has given the country’s Michel Cousins followed by parliamen- tion to the constitution is particu- take place; it was the 2011 Constitu- electoral authority constant public tary and presidential larly fierce across eastern Libya, tional Declaration under which the encouragement, as well as funding elections in December with many of the area’s representa- 2012 and 2014 elections took place. the organisation of any upcom- Pare in disarray following the deci- tives objecting to the potential Under the 2014 constitutional ing polls. However, as with Saleh, sion by the House of Representa- blueprint of a centralised state. The amendment that resulted in the there are doubts over his inten- tives (HoR) to again delay a vote on country’s ethnic minorities — the HoR being elected, there was to be tions. Certainly, if presidential and the issue. Amazigh, Tuareg and Tebu — have a presidential election. However, parliamentary elections were to go The president of the Tobruk- also voiced opposition to the move. that vote was suspended by the ahead, there is no chance he would based HoR, Ageela Saleh, was The Amazigh have said they would newly elected HoR, which con- be reappointed head of govern- among the four key Libyan leaders boycott any referendum. ferred on itself the presidential ment. An election would be the who agreed in May to the electoral However, under the conditions powers set out in the 2014 amend- end of his political career. timetable proposed by French in Libya’s current constitution, ment. Haftar appears to favour elec- President Emmanuel Macron. adopted during the revolution in Lawyers say the HoR could tions much more than he had The other three were Fayez al- 2011, the HoR is unable to amend simply revoke that decision and previously. In an interview earlier Sarraj, head of the internationally the new constitution drawn up by announce a date, at least for presi- this month, Haftar said current recognised Presidency Council in the elected Constitution Drafting dential elections. Some say it could political institutions, including the Tripoli; Field-Marshal Khalifa Haf- Assembly. Rather, it must be left be done in a declaration by the HoR, were not working. Elections tar, based in the east; and the State to the Libyan people to approve or HoR president himself but Saleh, represented the best solution to Council’s Muslim Brotherhood reject the document. All the HoR despite his claims to support elec- Libya’s political crisis and that President Khalid al-Mishri. is constitutionally allowed to do is tions, is widely seen as one of the the country needed to have a new For that timetable to be hon- pass legislation enabling a referen- chief blockers to fresh polls. elected president and parliament oured, the HoR must pass laws dum on it. Of the other three leaders, Mishri by the beginning of 2019. allowing the referendum and elec- Unable to amend the document, is mostly in favour. He and his col- Libyans were “eager” to have tions to take place. Under pressure its opponents in the HoR tried to leagues in the Muslim Brotherhood elections, he declared, criticising from the United Nations, France prevent the referendum by causing see the elections as their route to those — he did not name them — he and other countries, Saleh had procedural delays to the law ap- power. said were deliberately blocking said a referendum law would be in proving it or, if there must be one, So, too, do supporters of the them so that they could remain in place by the end of July. ensuring it fails. old regime, who hope that Libya’s office. It did not happen. The decision One article in the proposed refer- former dictator’s son, Saif al-Islam He was particularly critical of was first deferred until August endum law inserted by opponents Qaddafi, will stand for the presi- Italy and called for the removal 12 and now, although the HoR requires that a two-thirds major- dency. of the Italian ambassador after Under the conditions spokesman claims the law enjoys ity must be reached in each of the Given the level of despair among the country said elections should broad support, it has been post- three historic regions of Libya — Libyans, it is thought that Qaddafi be deferred until stability was in Libya’s current poned until after Eid al-Adha. Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan. could win a good percentage of the achieved across Libya. constitution, the HoR The HoR is unlikely to reconvene If it fails in one, if fails in all. If the vote, perhaps even enough to win. Without a strong political will, is unable to amend before September 3. A referendum referendum law is passed with the However, he remains the phantom the likelihood is that, not only will less than two weeks later is almost article in it, the proposed constitu- presence in Libyan politics. His no referendum take place next the new constitution impossible. tion will almost certainly fail in failure to appear in public after a month, there will be no elections drawn up by the That is precisely what a power- Cyrenaica. year of supposed freedom from in December, either. ful section of the HoR membership In any event, there is no guaran- captivity in Zintan fuelled rumours elected Constitution wants, including, it is thought, tee that when the HoR reconvenes that something is seriously wrong, Michel Cousins is a contributor to Drafting Assembly. Saleh. in September it will not find fur- either that he is not free or that he The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. August 19, 2018 13 News & Analysis Tunisia Tunisian president tests controversial issue of equal inheritance

Lamine Ghanmi streets” and “We will stage anoth- er revolution.” Those in favour of equal inher- Tunis itance say the legislation would help Tunisia live up to the ideals unisian President Beji Caid enshrined in its 2014 constitu- Essebsi proposed codifying tion, which is hailed as one of the equal inheritance between most progressive in the region and T men and women, making states: “All citizens, male and fe- him one of the first Muslim leaders male, have equal rights and duties to test the controversial issue. and are equal before the law with- “I say equality of inheritance out any discrimination.” should become law,” Caid Essebsi Dalenda Largueche, a professor said in a televised address on Au- at Manouba University, said equal gust 13, Tunisia’s National Wom- inheritance was an important way High hopes. Tunisians chant slogans during a demonstration to demand equal inheritance rights en’s Day. “This should have been of “applying the fundamental prin- between men and women, on August 13. (AFP) done in 1956 but the constitution ciples of the constitution.” did not provide for it then.” “There are no taboos nowadays,” next year. Tunisia’s leading Nidaa missed the president’s National way to carry Tunisia’s progressive Caid Essebsi said he wanted to she said. “With this new Tunisia, Tounes party has been embroiled Women’s Day speech in 2017 dur- legacy on women’s rights forward. see an inheritance bill before par- we are an example to the Arab in a months-long internal dispute ing which Caid Essebsi defended Former Tunisian Presidents Ha- liament “as soon as possible.” world and an example for other and the country’s leaders have equal inheritance. bib Bourguiba and Zine el-Abidine Tunisian law generally provides women and Muslim countries. If struggled to reverse a stubborn Abdelkrim Harouni, head of En- Ben Ali pushed through numerous women with only half the inherit- we were able to create a progres- economic downturn. nahda’s Shura Council, said “the reform measures, including ban- ance rights of men, in accordance sive constitution, it was thanks to It also adds fuel to the secular- basic rule is the respect of Islamic ning polygamy and ensuring wom- with sharia. Caid Essebsi’s pro- Tunisian women.” ist versus Islamist divide, which is tenets.” en’s right to vote, file for divorce posed legislation would change “They (the proposals) in no way likely to intensify as the election “We have expressed our reserva- and access abortions. They also that and allow exceptions for fami- contravene Islamic precepts but approaches. tions about the issue of the equali- cracked down on political Islam, lies who want to continue observ- embody an enlightened reading of ty in inheritance between men and limiting its reach in education and ing sharia-aligned provisions. these precepts, which put them in women but we are open to debate the media. “As the president of all Tunisians, step with the evolution of society,” Division adds to a murky other issues related to expanding However, in post-revolution I’m bound by the duty to unite and Abdelmajid Charfi, a university political landscape ahead of rights and freedoms,” he added. Tunisia, Caid Essebsi must break not to divide,” Caid Essebsi said in professor and one of the report’s parliamentary and Other senior Ennahda officials with his predecessors’ “top-down” a nod to the conservative forces in authors, told the Associated Press. presidential elections next referenced the country’s “Islamic approach to securing reforms and parliament and at large. But there was strong pushback year. values” and said the party would seek compromise from his part- Despite the apparent compro- to the proposal from conservatives likely propose different legislation. ners in government. mise, the proposal sparked heated and Islamists, who turned out in It would stipulate that “women get That has left him at odds even debate throughout the country. the thousands August 11 — two Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda half (the amount of) their broth- with some progressives, who Progressives and rights’ activists days before Caid Essebsi’s speech Movement, which remains in a ers in inheritance” and that “those say his proposal does not go far generally supported the idea but — to voice opposition to equal in- tenuous coalition government who want equality between their enough in protecting women’s in- many conservatives and Islamists heritance and other recommenda- with Nidaa Tounes, has distanced daughters and sons should state heritance rights. rejected it. tions made by the government- itself from the proposal. so in passing over their propriety,” “We are witnessing the anguish After the president’s speech, backed Commission on Individual Ennahda leader Rached Ghan- they said. of progressive forces like us who thousands took to Tunis’s main Freedoms and Equality. nouchi, who is often seen in prom- For Caid Essebsi, who, at 91, is feel deep in their hearts the presi- Habib Bourguiba Avenue to show Such division adds to a murky inent placement at presidential likely on the last lap of his 60-year dent’s proposal is far less than they support for equal inheritance, political landscape ahead of parlia- events, was notably absent dur- political career, securing equal expected,” said Maya Ksouri, a chanting “We are back to the mentary and presidential elections ing Caid Essebsi’s speech. He also inheritance between genders is a lawyer and anti-Islamist writer. Viewpoint In grinding face-off with Islamists, Caid Essebsi hit two birds with one stone

equality in inheritance in particu- vague concerning the report and ing section of the report on personal lar, it is because he knew Ennahda the reformist spirit therein. freedoms and equality sought to Amine could kill the bill and its legislative Caid Essebsi is pursuing a mo- do. The document clearly indicated Ben Messaoud and social intentions. ment in history by pushing the that the proposal to legalise equal- The president did not forget that report. He is obsessed with leaving ity between men and women in Ennahda had twice before aborted his mark on the country’s history inheritance was not rooted in the unisian President Beji his personal initiatives, the first and with finishing Habib Bourgui- religious text but drew legitimacy Caid Essebsi plans to regarding economic reconciliation ba’s reformist project. from the “civil nature of the state” submit a bill to parlia- and the other was his efforts to Bourguiba’s audacious modern- rather than from the religious back- ment regarding personal remove the government of Tunisian ist project stumbled on two issues: ground of the state. freedoms and equality, Prime Minister Youssef Chahed. convincing people to abandon fast- Caid Essebsi knows that “equal- especially gender equal- Caid Essebsi realises that En- ing the month of Ramadan when ity in inheritance” has no chance Tity in inheritance. By so doing, Caid nahda today is in much better work conditions required it and of passing the religious filter so he Essebsi wants to end the social and health than it was in 2013. The changing the rules of inheritance diverted debate in the public sphere political controversy created by the movement has weathered rather because they discriminate against to a debate about Islam and the report on personal freedoms and well the fearful prospects of an women. Caid Essebsi is keen on set- civil state. That debate had already equality. Egyptian scenario in 2013. Taking ting historic precedents in the Arab taken place and the political elite Caid Essebsi chose to transmit advantage of frequent splits among and Muslim worlds through the buried it after the adoption of the the report to parliament without its adversaries and allies, Ennahda second issue while leaving the first With an eye on the future. constitution in 2014. changes or amendments either to caught up with its losses in the 2014 as part of personal freedoms. Tunisian President Beji Caid Assuming that Caid Essebsi could the text or to the overall judicial general elections and even gained There have been many reformist Essebsi delivers a speech after succeed in having this particular philosophy. in self-confidence after scoring a thinkers in the history of the Arab a meeting with members of reform adopted, he would be the In a speech August 13, on Tuni- slight advantage in recent munici- and Muslim worlds. Reformist mod- the Individual Freedoms and first president to introduce a major sia’s National Women’s Day and in pal elections. ernist presidents, however, are less Equality Commission societal reform from outside the the presence of a select group of fe- The Ennahda Movement has than a handful. Knowing this, Caid (COLIBE), on August 13. religious nomenclature in a state male members of the government, many times claimed it believes Essebsi wants to have the benefits (Tunisian Presidency) that considers itself the guardian of the administration and civil society, in “separating religion and poli- of both “thinking” and “implement- religion. Caid Essebsi gave his understanding tics” but it is far from accepting ing” revolutionary reforms. It’s true that Caid Essebsi wants of equality in inheritance between this principle, especially in cases Unfortunately for the Tunisian the civil character of the Tunisian to complete Bourguiba’s project men and women as a constitutional related to the Quranic text or to president, Tunisia does not seem state and that it was not bound and it’s true that he shares with right, beyond the reach of cultural jurisprudence or to determining the ready to go along with his reform- by religious reference or source of the late president many political particularities or the first act of the ideational intent of the religious ist projects. It is not just because jurisprudence, he was manoeu- and social orientations but the Tunisian Constitution. text or what Tunisian reformist and many political, legislative, judicial vring the current debate from the men differ in two aspects. Bour- He was also clear that it was up to author Tahar Haddad called “the and civil voices have spoken against intentions of the religious text and guiba tried to push his reformist the Ennahda Movement to clarify why of Islam rather than the what the project, which they consider how to approach religious reforms programme within the limits of the its position on the issue because of religion.” opposed to the concept of family to a more fundamental debate that religious framework and he had the it constitutes the decisive bloc in So, when Caid Essebsi provoked and the social construction of a will lead to the total acceptance of advantage of manoeuvring within parliament. a reaction from Ennahda, his inten- family, but because the intentional the civil character of the state of the context of a strong presidential If Caid Essebsi devoted a good tion was to have history record approach to reform adopted by Tunisia. regime backed by a strong popular portion of his speech trying to it rather than score momentary the Zeitouna religious school does When that happens, it will mean support. This is not the case for convince Ennahda of the wisdom political gain. Through their reac- not allow room for interpreting the that Tunisia has rejected the reli- Caid Essebsi. of moderating its position and dis- tions, other parties are betting on clear religious text and make it fit gious nomenclature, at least in its course towards the report in general momentary victories. Most oppos- intended reforms. laws and legislation. Amine Ben Messaoud is a Tunisian and towards the issue of gender ing parties remained frustratingly When Caid Essebsi insisted on This is exactly what the ground- writer and political analyst. 14 August 19, 2018 Debate Iran Iran emerges as the biggest winner of Caspian summit

While a definitive agreement on the Caspian central seabed has yet to be concluded, the new conven- John C.K. Daly tion’s definition of EEZs and fish- ing rights was equitable enough for Iran to sign. Two decades ago, the lack of clearly delineated maritime fron- tiers led Iran to engage in “gun- ountries on the shores boat diplomacy.” On July 23, 2001, of the Caspian Sea an Iranian warship and two jets have signed a break- threatened two Azeri research ves- through agreement sels conducting surveys on behalf that has enormous of BP-Amoco in the Araz-Alov- implications for the Sharg field, 140km south-east of Cglobal energy market, especially Baku and 100km north of what for one of the five signatories, were considered Iranian waters. Iran. BP-Amoco immediately an- Of all the Caspian shoreline nounced it would cease explora- countries — Azerbaijan, Kazakh- tion activity and withdraw the stan, Russia, Turkmenistan and research vessels. Azerbaijan de- Iran — it is Iran that could be the nounced the move as a violation biggest beneficiary of any inter- of its sovereignty and charged that national race to exploit Caspian an Iranian reconnaissance aircraft hydrocarbons. had violated Azeri airspace. The agreement, signed August That was then. The new agree- 12, has 24 articles that cover ter- ment will probably ensure no such ritorial waters, maritime frontiers, incidents recur. Furthermore, in navigation rules, fishing and the the interests of regional harmony, environment. Signatories can initi- Iran, Russia and Turkmenistan ate offshore exploratory projects will be able to avail themselves and develop resources. None can of Azeri and Kazakhstan off- permit foreign militaries use of United States may not be able to foreign investment. Both Russia shore technology, as well as their their waters or coastlines. benefit much. Even though it was and Iran have long suffered under Of all the pipeline and transport networks. The agreement provides the first to assist post-Soviet Azer- sanctions. Caspian These grids crisscross their terri- extraordinary opportunities for baijan develop its offshore Caspian Iran benefits from the conven- shoreline tory, providing access to foreign offshore drilling and the construc- reserves, the United States may tion in three ways. First, the Cas- countries, it is markets. Customers are most tion of subsea transit pipelines, not be able to invest in new possi- pian would be closed to outside Iran that could likely to be East and South Asian. making it possible for Caspian military intervention. Second, However much Washington might bilities in the Caspian Sea because be the biggest hydrocarbons to reach global of its hostile policies towards Rus- Iran’s offshore territory is clearly splutter about sanctions, China, markets. Little wonder then that sia and Iran. delineated. Third, Iran gains ac- beneficiary of Japan, South Korea, Pakistan and Russian President Vladimir Putin The prize is not inconsequential. cess to other Caspian countries’ any India all seek reliable energy sup- described the agreement as having There is an estimated more than hydrocarbon, rail and transport international plies. “epoch-making significance.” 50 billion barrels of oil and 292 network. These opportunities will race to exploit The agreement left several It was a restatement of some- trillion cubic feet of natural gas in go some way towards circumvent- Caspian issues unresolved and that may thing former US Vice-President proven Caspian offshore reserves. ing the Trump administration’s hydrocarbons. prove to be its undoing. Still, Ira- Dick Cheney said in 1998: “I can’t The treaty stipulates that 15 recently reimposed sanctions after nian President Hassan Rohani de- think of a time when we’ve had nautical miles from each coun- the unilateral US withdrawal from scribed it as a “major document,” a region emerge as suddenly to try’s coastline will be regarded as the nuclear deal, the Joint Com- even as he noted that the delimi- become as strategically significant sovereign waters and an exclusive prehensive Plan of Action. tation of the Caspian seabed will as the Caspian.” economic zone (EEZ). A further 10 The Caspian agreement could require additional agreements. As things stand, however, the nautical miles will be for fishing not have come at a better time With billions of barrels of oil, and beyond that would be open for Iran. It was not possible until trillions of cubic feet of natural gas waters. recently because of disagreement and likely revenues of trillions of The United States may not be Only Azerbaijan and Kazakh- between Russia and Iran. Rus- dollars, the lure of prosperity may stan, with their relatively inves- sia insisted each country receive prove stronger than the tendency able to invest in new possibilities tor-friendly governments, have offshore waters in proportion to to squabble. in the Caspian Sea because of its developed offshore reserves to any its coastline but Iran maintained significant extent. Turkmenistan’s that all should receive 20% each. John C.K. Daly is a hostile policies towards Russia idiosyncratic government has, Under Russian terms, Iran’s share Washington-based specialist on and Iran. until recently, largely precluded would be 11-13%. Russian and post-Soviet affairs. Iran’s supreme leader: Not infallible, after all

Khamenei, for the first time in his has only once publicly admitted a leader. Iranian news agencies re- capacity as the “leader of the revo- mistake. It happened this way: As Iran has every moved the reference but it remains lution” and head of state, admitted Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini reason not to an issue. There is absolutely no Ali Alfoneh he had erred. He said: “Negotiating issued a fatwa ordering the death of put out the full way a politician as astute as Rohani the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive British author Salman Rushdie for text of would have made an admission that Plan of Action] was a mistake. I writing “The Satanic Verses,” the Khamenei’s amounts to high treason. No Iranian committed a mistake concerning European Union recalled its ambas- speech. To do politician would do so, for any rea- the negotiations by giving in to sadors from Tehran. son, in any circumstance. the pressure of the gentlemen to To solve the crisis, Khamenei, so would mean Rohani had seen the way s Iranian Supreme experience [negotiations] and they then president of the republic, sug- opening a Khamenei authorised Mohammad Leader Ali Khame- violated the defined red lines.” gested that an apology by Rushdie Pandora’s box. Khatami when he was president to nei addressed the One of the gentlemen referred might be enough for the fatwa to engage in nuclear diplomacy with country’s economic to was obviously Iranian President be withdrawn. However, Khomeini the Europeans. This resulted in the woes and its relations Hassan Rohani. Khamenei claimed thundered from the pulpit: “The Tehran Declaration but Khatami with the United States, that Rohani, presumably in a gentleman who says such things has was thrown under the bus by mostA news outlets focused on his private conversation with him, had no comprehension of the meaning of Khamenei and accused of treason. assurance “there will be no war” admitted: “Had it not been for re- the Guardianship of the Jurist!” Therefore, Rohani made sure even as he prohibited negotiations strictions defined by you, we would Khamenei’s public humiliation of the supreme leader’s public with “the current administration” have made more concessions [to was complete. He quickly got back support before, during and after in Washington. the United States].” in line. the nuclear negotiations with the Khamenei also said something Khamenei’s August 13 speech was Khomeini’s concept of governance UN Security Council’s permanent else, which went largely unnoticed widely reported in Iran but within elevated the Iranian head of state five members, Germany and the by the foreign media but that could hours all references to his admis- into an infallible imam. This is at the European Union. Rohani dragged have key consequences for Iran’s sion of his mistake were removed. core of Khamenei’s problems. By ad- Khamenei in front of the cameras political culture. In some versions of Khamenei’s mitting he was wrong in authorising to give public assurances to the speech, there is no longer a refer- Rohani to engage in nuclear nego- nuclear negotiators that the leader ence to Rohani’s alleged admission tiations with the United States and of the revolution had accepted that he would have made further by publicly endorsing the JCPOA, the minute details of the Rohani concessions to the United States Khamenei openly admitted he is a government’s negotiations with the had it not been for the restraint mere mortal and capable of making world powers. imposed by the supreme leader. mistakes. The fact that Khamenei’s August The Persian site of the Office of This raises a question for 80 13 speech that tries to distance him Preservation and Propagation of million Iranians. On what grounds from the JCPOA has subsequently the Works of His Holiness Grand should they put their fate in the been removed by Iranian media Ayatollah Khamenei, which pro- hands of an unelected mortal who shows that Rohani has threatened vides transcripts, audio and video can make mistakes, rather than to engage in a nasty public row of his speeches, has been off-line in the president, who, after all, is with Khamenei. since the August 13 speech and as elected? Clearly, Iran’s supreme leader of this writing August 17. A second problem for Khamenei, is all too human and not infallible Iran has every reason not to put revolves around the claims that Ro- after all. Holding to power. Iranian Supreme Leader out the full text of Khamenei’s hani admitted his government would Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks at a meeting in speech. To do so would mean open- have offered more concessions to the Ali Alfoneh is a visiting scholar Tehran, on August 13. ing a Pandora’s box. United States “[h]ad it not been for at the Arab Gulf States Institute (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader) In his political career, Khamenei restrictions defined” by the supreme in Washington. August 19, 2018 15 News & Analysis Regional Issues ISIS remains as a covert force across Syria and Iraq

Simon Speakman Cordall Ticking bomb. An Iraqi fighter Tunis looks at an Islamic State report from the US Depart- flag and ment of Defence puts the ammunition number of Islamic State displayed in (ISIS) fighters in Syria and al-Alam, A Saladin Iraq at between 28,600-31,600 while a UN report, released Au- province. gust 13, estimates them at 20,000- (Reuters) 30,000. The United Nations and Pentagon estimates, if correct, would mean that, despite the significant loss of territory and $14.3 billion expend- ed on more than 24,000 air strikes against the group, ISIS’s numbers remain relatively unchanged from previously reported highs. The UN report stated that the group, which the Iraqi, Syrian and Russian governments all declared “defeated” at the end of 2017, morphed from a proto-state to a “covert” force of isolated groups of fighters prepared to strike as cir- cumstances demand. Pentagon spokesman US Navy Commander Sean Robertson told Voice of America that ISIS “is well- positioned to rebuild and work on enabling its physical caliphate to re-emerge.” While the figures in both reports are much higher than other recent estimates, analysts expressed un- No longer controlling large areas, swaths of territory, how will ISIS some cases, still) ruled by various they, not the government, are in certainty over their accuracy. ISIS operates in small groups across fund its organisation as it seeks to cross-sections of rebels, warlords, charge, and thus ramp up recruit- “The numbers are going to be Syria and Iraq. reorganise?” and militia groups.” ment,” he said. very rough estimates that are with- “Many of these fighters remain The July attack in Sweida prov- The UN report noted that ISIS’s ISIS is playing out its zero-sum in a 50% margin of error, based in and around towns and villages ince in Syria, which resulted in the internal discipline remains intact game with the governments of Da- on the careful counting of camps in the Euphrates River Valley and death of more than 200 people, is with its fighters ready to strike at mascus and Baghdad. “If the As- and attack cells and making some then in smaller pockets scattered an indication of ISIS’s continuing targets determined by a battered sad government or other govern- informed assumptions,” said Mi- throughout Syria and Iraq,” said threat. but still functioning hierarchy. ing entity in a particular territory chael Knights, a senior fellow at Colin Clarke, a senior political sci- “I think it’s very likely that ISIS Few of ISIS’s remaining fighters, is deemed unpopular, draconian or the Washington Institute. “They entist at the RAND Corporation. will be able to take and hold terri- Knights said, would be new. Rather, corrupt,” Clarke noted, “ISIS, by de- will tend to be pessimistic because “Many are presumably laying low tory in the future, just nowhere on “most (will be) seasoned. There are fault, will become more popular.” it is better to overstate than under- and waiting for the US coalition to the level that it was able to do so always younger brothers of fighters “The group gained a reputation state a threat. So [the real number reduce its presence. There are also [from 2014-16],” Clarke said. “Even but their main recruitment areas for brutal, yet effective, govern- is] somewhere between the stated clandestine attempts to reorganise though the Assad regime is consoli- are now lost to them,” he said. ance,” he said. numbers and half of those num- small cells of fighters. Think of it as dating control over large portions Attacks such as the one at Sweida bers, including both hardcore ji- the three ‘R’s,’ or resting, recuperat- of Syria, it still lacks the capacity to fall within a larger pattern, Knights Simon Speakman Cordall is Syria/ hadis and local affiliates who may ing and rearming. A critical issue is police and govern areas in the rural noted. “By killing local leaders, Lebanon section editor with be easier to detach.” going to be, without holding large Sunni heartland formerly (and, in they aim to convince people that The Arab Weekly. Viewpoint Russia, Iran and Syria: strange and strained alliances

ussia, Iran and Syria the immediate needs of what is of Syria and what it means to have — talk about strange required to keep Assad in power in an unstable Syria in the region. bedfellows. You could Damascus, which each side has its Trump repeatedly said that he Claude Salhani not get three more own egoistic reasons to support. does not want to keep a mili- opposing ideas and What happens when Syria’s war tary presence in Syria after philosophies than from ends and Moscow starts to look the defeat of ISIS. However, Rthose three. Well, except for the beyond today? he also stated he would like fact that all are authoritative states There has never been much love to see Iran’s military pres- ruled by autocratic leaders with a between Moscow and Tehran. Dur- ence in Syria reduced and its deep-rooted desire to spread their ing the Cold War the Kremlin fun- regional influence curtailed. political agendas and to dominate nelled funds and supported Tudeh, The only way to recon- as much of the world as possible. the local communist party, which cile those two objectives, (Except for Syria, which is just try- the shah went after with a venge- withdrawing from Syria and ing to survive). ance. The Soviets hoped to install a containing Iran, is through For these regimes, the end justi- regime more favourable to Moscow. cooperation with Russia. fies the means. Respect for human After the mullahs ousted the mon- Could there be a trade rights is a concept that is alien to archy, the theocracy in Iran hunted agreement reached leaders in Iran, Russia and Syria, down the communists, picking up between the two great where this love triangle originated. where the shah had left off. powers? An agreement that Russian President Vladimir Hmmm, there was something in would see the United Putin and his Iranian counterpart, the news just the other day about States and its regional Hassan Rohani, found solace in Russian interference in another allies (Israel and the Arab Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad whose country’s elections. Do we see a Gulf states) stop under- ruthlessness was used to remain in pattern here? Moscow may have un- mining the Assad regime power, regardless of the cost to the dergone a change of regime but its (and thereby accepting Rus- country in terms of human lives or policies at times seem unchanged. sia’s domination in Syria) in the infrastructure. While the subject of the talks exchange for forcing Iran After facing a bleak future early between Putin and US President out. In a perfect world, in the conflict, Assad appears to Donald Trump at their summit in such a swap, the Syria-for- have won the war, largely thanks to Helsinki may never be known, there Iran deal, should make his allies. If this can be considered is increasing belief that Syria was everyone happy. a victory in any real sense when discussed at length. Well, except for Iran. the country lies devastated, entire Under the Trump administration Russia, several me- cities in ruin, huge sections of the there appears to be less involve- dia reports said, was population turned into refugees, ment — or even willingness to get willing to cooperate the economy flattened, commerce involved — in Syria. Syria is one in Syria but only as and trade disrupted and the intel- clear situation from which the a first lectual capital of the nation escap- United States bowed out, leaving step ing to resettle on safer shores. In the theatre of operations entirely to towards that regard, yes, one can say Assad the Russians. addressing more is victorious. This is particularly so since the fundamental differ- In a perfect world, the The political and military alliance apparent defeat of the Islamic State ences with Washington. Russia’s brought about by the necessities (ISIS). The United States seems intervention in Syria has much Syria-for-Iran deal of the civil war in Syria is a strange to ignore the region preferring to broader objectives than keeping On thin ice. Iran’s President should make and strained one. It is a marriage focus exclusively on Iran. Bashar Assad in power. Hassan Rohani (R) walks of convenience. The rapproche- Washington’s involvement in with Russia’s President everyone happy. Well, ment between Tehran and Moscow Syria was more focused on the role Claude Salhani is a regular Vladimir Putin before a except for Iran. is unlikely to survive far beyond and influence of ISIS than the role columnist for The Arab Weekly. meeting in Tehran. (Reuters) 16 August 19, 2018 News & Analysis East West Washington on the watch as Iran protests gather steam

Thomas Frank “When people expected some dividend from nuclear deal, the regime pocketed the money for Washington themselves. They paid Assad, funded foreign adventurism and he Iranian regime faces a terror. [Citizens’] lives didn’t get major threat to its existence better. They got significantly from protesters who are worse,” said Mariam Memarsade- T becoming increasingly vo- ghi, an Iran-born human rights ad- cal and from US-imposed sanctions vocate. “Added to the tyranny of that are weakening the country’s the last 40 years, it’s an explosion.” economy, a panel of Middle East The analysts said that, although experts said. he has stated repeatedly that he The protests that began in De- is not pursuing regime change, cember and have been applauded Trump’s policies are clearly push- by US President Donald Trump ing Iran in that direction. As pro- show that the Iranian people have tests and pressure mount, Trump lost confidence in Supreme Leader will play a key role in determin- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Presi- ing the future of Iran through his dent Hassan Rohani and want re- public statements and pressure on gime change, the experts said Au- Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and gust 15 at the Hudson Institute, a Yemen. conservative think-tank. “The Trump administration, “Iran is in a pre-revolutionary whether intentionally or not, has state,” said Nader Uskowi, an Iran- adopted a regime-collapse strat- born expert who was a senior US egy,” Nader said. “If Iranians rise military policy adviser under US up, it will be key what the United President Barack Obama and is now States does, the signal it sends, the with the Washington Institute for policies it adopts.” Near East Policy. “People have lost Despite Trump’s support of pro- confidence in the regime to solve At an impasse. An Iranian woman walks past a mural on the wall of the former US Embassy in Tehran. (AFP) testers and pressure on Iranian the problems. They don’t trust the leaders, the analysts expressed regime because of corruption and concern that Trump lacked “moral because of failed policies.” movement in the world.” coming out — the women’s move- dent Bashar] Assad and Hamas. The clarity” and might be lured into US Secretary of State Mike As the protests have mounted, ment, environmentalists, truck sanctions are putting tremendous thinking he can make a deal with Pompeo on August 16 announced they have become increasingly drivers, trade unionists — you begin stress on Iran’s regional position.” Iran’s leaders, as he tried to reach the creation of an Iran Action Group troublesome for the regime be- to realise this regime is conceptu- Iran’s support of Assad in Syria an agreement with Kim Jong-un of to direct the US State Department’s cause they are drawing such a wide ally in trouble,” Taleblu added. and Hamas in the Palestinian ter- North Korea. Iran-related activities and coor- range of people and the protesters Iran will face a crossroads in No- ritories helped fuel resentment by “Unfortunately, we don’t have a dinate a “global effort” to change have chanted slogans that directly vember when the United States is Iranian civilians, who say the re- Ronald Reagan in the White House, Iran’s behaviour. challenge the Iranian leadership. to reinstate sanctions on the Ira- gime has squandered the goodwill who believed so strongly in free- Alireza Nader, an Iran analyst “They’re saying things like ‘Death nian oil sector, which will intensify and financial windfall from the dom,” Memarsadeghi said, recall- with the RAND Corporation, said to Palestine’ and ‘The enemy isn’t the economic pressure brought on nuclear deal signed in 2015 that ing the US president from 1981-89 Rohani is politically finished. He of- America, the enemy is here,’” said by the August 7 resumption of US lifted global sanctions in exchange whose public support of Russian fered Iranians the possibility of a Behnam Ben Taleblu from the sanctions on the Iranian financial for Iran curtailing its nuclear pro- dissidents helped bring down the better life through moderation but Foundation for Defense of Democ- sector and certain exports. gramme. Soviet Union. “We have to be care- that failed. “So he really has noth- racies. The chants are an angry re- “Iran is going to come under a Trump withdrew the United ful the Iranian government does ing else to offer at this point,” Nader versal of regime-favoured slogans virtual economic blockade,” Nader States from the deal, calling it not manage to convince the US that said. “Death to America” and “America is said. “The regime will have to make deeply flawed because it did not it is abiding by this and that and Nader called the Iranian protests the enemy.” hard decisions in November wheth- curtail other Iranian activities such that Donald Trump doesn’t get re- “the biggest civil disobedience “When you see the social classes er it wants to support [Syrian Presi- as its ballistic missile programme. ally happy about making a deal.” Viewpoint US and Israel collude on Palestinian erasure

ll the political talk in of Palestinians, surrounded by and Washington is about under Israeli control. allegations that the Exhibit C: Trump has signalled Mark Habeeb Trump campaign col- to Israel that it can do whatever luded with Moscow it wants in Gaza regardless of in 2016 to gain an the predictions that Gaza will be advantageA in the election against unliveable in several years’ time. Hillary Clinton. The legal definition Remember Gaza is the template of “collusion” is “an agreement for the Palestinian enclaves Israel between two or more people to de- is creating in the West Bank. Gaza fraud a person of his or her rights.” is the template; unliveable is the Whether or not US President goal. Donald Trump’s campaign Exhibit D: According to leaked colluded with Russia in 2016 is the e-mails, Jared Kushner, Trump’s subject of special counsel Robert son-in-law and peace process Mueller’s criminal investigation maestro, wants to abolish the but there is another collusion UN Relief and Works Agency At all costs. A Palestinian boy sits on a chair with a national flag happening right in front of us and for Palestine (UNRWA) or, at a as Israeli authorities demolish a school site in the village of Yatta, it doesn’t take a special counsel minimum, “disrupt” and defund it. on July 11. (AFP) to uncover it: The collusion The 5 million Palestinian between the United States and refugees for whom UNRWA Israel — more specifically, between provides basic human needs will, permanent status issues, the however, devotion to Israel is the Trump administration and for Kushner, simply no longer Trump administration is working about prophecy considering the the government of Israeli Prime exist: They are off the table (and to severely restrict the scope of second coming of Christ. And Minister Binyamin Netanyahu — to on the floor, next to Jerusalem). any final deal, with the aim of evangelical voters support Trump erase the Palestinian people. Kushner defended this drastic compelling the Palestinians to overwhelmingly — by 80% to 16% Not to literally erase them — move by saying that it is necessary capitulate.” against Clinton. except maybe in Netanyahu’s “to risk breaking things” to get The Trump-Netanyahu collusion Trump and Netanyahu are wildest dreams — but to erase results in the peace process but makes sense on several levels. Both ideological brothers. “Israel and them as a legitimate people with he only wants to break Palestinian are captives of their respective the United States are concurrently legitimate rights. things. bases — for Netanyahu, the splitting into warring camps of Consider the evidence. Exhibit E: Israel’s nation-state coalition of right-wing parties that majority supremacists against Exhibit A: Trump announced law, which preferences its Jewish maintain his shaky hold on power; minorities and their defenders,” that the United States would citizens over others, is the first step for Trump, evangelical Christians. wrote Chemi Shalev in the Israeli recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s in an internal “erasure” effort. By Yes, Christians. With several newspaper Haaretz. capital and that the issue of the declaring that 20% of its citizens prominent exceptions (such as The outlook is bleak but city’s status was “off the table.” are officially a lesser people, Israel Sheldon Adelson) American Jewish Palestinians are indelible and In other words, the Palestinians’ is internalising its foreign policy. leaders are appalled at what is cannot be erased. They soon will legitimate claims to Jerusalem and Both Kushner and David Friedman, going on with both the peace be the majority between the Jordan its sacred sites have been swept the US ambassador to Israel, have process and inside Israel. Even River and the Mediterranean. onto the floor. expressed support for the law. Ronald Lauder, former head of the The tragic fact is that the Trump- Exhibit B: The Trump What this evidence shows is World Jewish Congress and a friend Netanyahu policy is destined administration wagged nary a that Trump’s peace process team, of Netanyahu, called the nation- to create more bloodshed and Many young finger at Israel as it relentlessly in collusion with the Netanyahu state law a “destructive action” in a destruction. Palestinians will, as American Jews are expanded settlements in the government, is not interested New York Times opinion piece. always, suffer more, while Israel West Bank. Israel is confiscating in a “deal of the century.” They Many young American Jews are slowly erodes. outraged and and settling Palestinian land in a are interested in bringing about outraged and becoming alienated becoming alienated manner that renders impossible Palestinian surrender. As Anne from the state that claims to Mark Habeeb is East-West Editor from the state that the creation of a viable Palestinian Irfan, a teaching fellow in Middle represent them. Many support of The Arab Weekly and adjunct homeland. Israel envisions a East history at the University the boycott, divest and sanctions professor of Global Politics and claims to represent collection of mini-Gazas in the of Sussex, succinctly put it: movement against Israel. Security at Georgetown University them. West Bank — isolated aggregations “By gradually eliminating the For evangelical Christians, in Washington. August 19, 2018 17 News & Analysis East West Italy lacks deradicalisation strategy as it faces growing challenge

Mahmud el-Shafey sential homegrown jihadist scene” supplanting foreign jihadists and bring Italy in line with the situa- London tion in other European countries, such as the United Kingdom and he issue of countering Is- France. lamist radicalisation re- Italian authorities have ad- mains an urgent challenge dressed the jihadism scene with a T for many European coun- focus on law-and-order solutions tries, particularly because collapse and by prioritising the expulsion of the Islamic State could return of foreign nationals determined to jihadists to European shores while be involved in extremism. Rome homegrown jihadism is on the will need to adapt to confront a rise. changing scene, however. A report by the Italian Institute “More and more radicalised in- for International Political Studies dividuals have Italian citizenship, (ISPI), titled “De-radicalisation in acquired either through marriage the Mediterranean: Comparing or after the long residency period Challenges and Approaches,” com- required by law. The number of pares the vastly different policies Italian converts engaging in mili- enacted by Mediterranean coun- tant activities also appears to be tries on the issue. Nowhere are the increasing,” the ISPI report said. differences clearer than in the de- This means that Italy will need strategies pursued by France and to formally adopt national coun- Italy. ter-radicalisation and de-radicali- Lorenzo Vidino, an Italian for- sation strategies. Italy remains one eign policy expert and director of the few European countries not of the programme on extremism to have a national strategy on this at George Washington University issue, relying on various isolated in Washington, said Italy has not initiatives in prisons and school experienced the same surge in systems. Urgent challenge. An Italian police officer watches a screen during a news conference to illustrate an radicalisation as other European Although a bill proposing the anti-terrorism operation at police headquarters in Milan. (AP) countries despite its proximity establishment of a Countering Vio- to Middle Eastern conflicts and a lent Extremism Strategy passed huge influx of migrants and refu- the lower house of parliament in evolves at a rapid pace. In line with France’s centralised and increase detection. gees from the region. 2017, parliament was dissolved Anina Schwarzenbach, a re- tradition, the government imple- This is a policy that France con- before the Senate could vote on searcher into counterterrorism, mented a “top-down management tinues to add to today. French it. The bill would have created said the 2015 attack on Paris, in system,” supervised by the Minis- President Emmanuel Macron re- Italy might be in need of a the first nationwide countering which 137 people died, marked a try of Interior and including other cently told parliamentarians they national de-radicalisation extremism strategy, including the clear change in France’s strategy government agencies, to counter could expect another round of strategy but it is not clear establishment of several govern- towards radicalisation, particu- radicalisation and terrorism, she changes this year, including an that the wide-ranging ment agencies dedicated to coun- larly given that a number of the at- said. ambitious plan to “reorganise” Is- strategy pursued in France ter-radicalisation. tackers were French citizens. The government introduced lam in France. is the answer. It remains to be seen whether “Islamist radicalisation sud- popular campaigns to target peo- Italy might be in need of a na- the new government, composed denly became more than a mere ple believed to be at risk of falling tional de-radicalisation strategy mostly of populist anti-immigra- security threat but also a social for extremism ideologies, par- but it is not clear that the wide- “The Italian jihadist scene re- tion parties and dubbed the Gov- problem. In the aftermath of the ticularly in prisons and schools, ranging strategy pursued in France mains small and unsophisticated ernment of Change, will seek to attacks, the French government while simultaneously seeking to is the answer, particularly given when compared to that of most change Italy’s strategy towards implemented a variety of pre- promote a specific French Islamic that radicalisation and terrorism other European countries but confronting extremism and imple- emptive and reactive measures to identity. remain such a threat. there are reasons to assess that it ment a new national strategy. counter Islamist extremism and The report stated that the com- “France has implemented a wide will grow in coming years,” the sec- The Italian strategy, or lack radicalisation,” said the section of prehensive approach favoured by variety of measures and securi- tion of the report on Italy, which thereof, can be contrasted with the report on France, written by France has seen the involvement tised its social politics. However, was written by Vidino, warned. France’s stringent top-down plan Schwarzenbach, of the Max Planck of 20 ministerial departments and little knowledge on the legitimacy This growing jihadism is likely that was largely formalised follow- Institute for Foreign and Interna- government agencies, seeking and effectiveness of these initia- to include the rise of a “quintes- ing the 2015 Paris attacks and that tional Criminal Law in Germany. variously to prevent radicalisation tives exists,” the report concluded.

Viewpoint Spain’s counterterrorism measures lag behind rapidly changing threat

year after the terror largely imported phenomenon. attacks in Barce- Until the seismic changes of 2013, Simon lona and Cambrils, 90% of those arrested in relation Speakman Cordall in which 16 people to jihadism were young foreign died, Agence France- men who entered the country Presse journalists vis- from Morocco, Pakistan or Alge- itedA the mountain town of Rapoli, ria. home of the cell that carried out Following the establishment of the attack. There, they said the the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq population was reeling from the that changed dramatically. Data effects of the terror group that had cited in the IPSI report indicated flourished in their midst. that, since 2013, four of every That sense of shock falls wider ten jihadists arrested or killed in than Rapoli and reaches back Spain were Spanish nationals and further than August 2017. A report three of every ten had been born by the Institute for International in Spain. Political Studies (ISPI), an Italian Despite the growth in indige- think-tank, stated that from the nous jihadism, all those suspected mid-1990s to the months before of involvement in last year’s last year’s attacks, Spain had been attacks were either born in or had struggling with adapting its coun- familial links to Morocco. terterrorism strategies to reflect an That Spain is confronting its jihadist threat is beyond doubt, unpredictable dynamic. Changing threat. An armed police officer stands between vehicles the report noted, even if much of It can be difficult to comprehend outside a subway station in Madrid. (AP) a time before the jihadist threat the impetus for that came from that dogs the security services of elsewhere in the European Union. the present. In Spain, conditioned Despite the wide-ranging powers to regard the Basque separatist injured thousands more. LCRV), which contained sweeping in PEN-LCRV, a lack of dedicated group Euskadi Ta Askatasuna By the time of the outbreak of powers to counter Spain’s jihadist financing and the unsuitable posi- (ETA) as its principal threat, the jihadist violence in Spain, the threat. tioning of its coordinating body in first arrest for violent jihadism country’s popular consciousness, Radicalisation in Spain fol- the bureaucracy have hampered occurred in 1995. Between that as well as much of its counterter- lowed a familiar path, with small, its work. arrest and 2003, slightly more rorism infrastructure, had been foreign-dominated, cells metas- Federal challenges have been than 100 people were detained for shaped in opposition to a threat tasising as they spread. The first compounded by municipal nerv- association with violent Salafist both nationalist and leftist in al-Qaeda cell in Spain was estab- ousness over how the creation of groups. character. lished in Madrid in 1994. That local bodies designed to counter The influence of the ETA on As ISPI report pointed out, unit survived until 2001 when its violent jihadism may be perceived Spanish thinking is hard to official and public attitudes to links to the German cell whose by both Christian and Municipal overstate. From its founding the ETA continued to inform members were instrumental in communities. Despite the slaughter in 1959, the ETA evolved into and hamper Spain’s response to the 9/11 attacks led to its disman- Spain’s state institutions and a highly effective paramilitary the growing jihadist threat and tlement. It was from the remnants the public have a long history of in Madrid, Spanish group responsible for a campaign delayed official consensus on the of this group that the impetus living alongside terrorism. How- jihadism remained a of bombings, assassinations and topic until January 2015 and the towards the March 2004 Madrid ever, how adaptable both may be kidnappings across Spain. From signing of the country’s National bombings came. to dramatic changes in the nature largely imported 1968-2010, the ETA killed 829 peo- Strategic Plan to Fight Against Despite the slaughter in Madrid, of that threat remains a work in phenomenon. ple, including 340 civilians, and Violent Radicalisation (PEN- Spanish jihadism remained a progress. 18 August 19, 2018 Economy

Algerian holidaymakers boost Tunisia’s tourism numbers Briefs

Lamine Ghanmi Elloumi said. Tunisian officials predict that -ap UAE to build oil proximately 8 million tourists will pipeline between Tunis spend holidays in Tunisia this year, above the pre-attack level of 7.1 Ethiopia and n July 10, a day after jihad- million in 2014. ists killed six members of Despite the strong increase in Eritrea Tunisia’s security services tourism numbers, the country still O near the Algerian border, takes in less revenue than it did The United Arab Emirates will Algerian Interior Minister Noured- before its 2011 revolution, due to a build a pipeline connecting Ethio- dine Bedoui stood at the main stubborn economic downturn that pia to the Eritrean port of Assab, border crossing between the two is underlined by a weakened cur- state media reported. countries to personally supervise rency. The agreement was reportedly the flow of Algerian tourists into While there were 1.8 million tour- made during discussions in Addis Tunisia. ists from January-July in 2010 — far Ababa between Ethiopian Prime Bedoui’s presence on the border, lower than the 4.4 million who ar- Minister Abiy Ahmed and UAE encouraging Algerians to visit Tu- rived during the same period this Minister of International Coopera- nisia, reflected the country’s long- year — the 2010 tourists spent $2.3 tion Reem al-Hashimy. standing economic and security billion, almost four times the level support for its neighbour. for the same period this year. (Agence France-Presse) A month later, Algerian tourist That shows just how much of an numbers had improved, jumping effect the country’s economic crisis from a daily average of 17,000 in has had on tourism rates and the July to an average of 20,000 per economy at large, experts said. day during the first 14 days of Au- The steady increase of Algerian gust, figures from the Algerian In- tourists has come as a welcome de- terior Ministry indicated. Tunisian velopment, bringing at least mod- and Algerian officials said they erate relief to the embattled in- German rail expected the number of Algerian dustry. Algerian economist Khaliss tourists to be 2.2 million-2.7 mil- Tablati noted that “the annual rise operator, lion this season, a strong sign of of tourists from Algeria to Tunisia recovery for Tunisia’s leisure in- has been at no less than 17% annu- Deutsche Telekom dustry. ally over the last three years. In 2015, Tunisia’s tourism in- Other economists said that even end Iran projects dustry took a hit following deadly more Algerian tourists would visit attacks on Tunis’s Bardo National Tunisia if not for the fall of the Al- German rail operator Deutsche Museum and a beach resort in gerian dinar, which has particularly Bahn and Deutsche Telekom Sousse, which killed dozens of hit the country’s middle class, who are ending projects in Iran after tourists, most of whom were from are most likely to visit Tunisia. Washington imposed new sanc- Europe. They said rich Algerians usually High season. Tourists shop at the old medina in Sousse. (Reuters) tions against Tehran and said firms After largely suspending opera- spend their holidays in Spain, Eu- doing business with Iran would be tions involving Tunisia, major Eu- rope or Asia and the upper-middle barred from doing business with ropean tour operators have begun class visit Turkey. against the US dollar. the government has put little effort the United States. sending tourists back to Tunisia All Algerians are entitled to a 100 With the current economic land- into developing its tourism sector, US sanctions against Iran took on package deals. The number of euro ($114) annual tourism allow- scape, and given that Algeria has which accounts for 1.4% of its GDP. effect in early August and several foreign visitors rose 23% to 4.4 mil- ance. yet to develop tourism at home, Most tourists in Algeria are expatri- European companies, including oil lion for the first half of the year, However, many Algerians obtain Tunisia is likely to remain a big ates returning home for holidays. major Total as well as carmakers compared to the same period a year foreign currency in cash on the market for Algerians. In 2017, the World Economic Fo- PSA, Renault and Daimler, have earlier, Tourism Minister Salma El- black market at higher rates than Despite Algeria’s 1,600km Medi- rum ranked Algeria 118th out of suspended plans to invest in Iran loumi Rekik announced. the official rate at the banks. terranean shoreline, important cul- 136 countries in terms of travel and in light of the sanctions. This led to a 42% increase in tour- Economist Yacine Babouche tural and historical sites and vast tourism competitiveness, far be- ism earnings, which stood at $554 said the value of the Algerian di- desert expanse that could make it hind Morocco and Tunisia, which (Reuters) million for the first seven months, nar had lost 50% since mid-2014 a key tourist spot in the Maghreb, ranked 65th and 87th, respectively. Morocco sees rising number of Chinese tourists Saad Guerraoui The number of Chinese arriving nights (24 million against 22 million Moroccan travel agencies are Sudanese hit by in Morocco in the first five months the previous year) this year com- competing for a share of the huge of this year reached 100,000, the pared to last. Chinese market. A China-Morocco bread shortages as London Moroccan National Tourist Office The figures for tourist arriv- Tourism Forum last February in stated, compared to 120,000 in all als from traditional and emerging Casablanca promoted Morocco as a currency crunch ore than 5 million tour- of 2017. Experts predict that figure markets showed strong growth. destination for Chinese tourists. ists visited Morocco in to almost double in 2018. The number of French visitors was “The Chinese market has an im- escalates the first half of 2018, an Tourism receipts grew 15.2% to followed by Italy (18% increase on mense potential as it has the world’s M increase of 10% com- $3.3 billion in the first six months of 2017), the United States (18%) and highest number of millionaires,” Bread shortages hit Sudan, with pared to the same period in 2017, the year, registering 500,000 more Germany (13%). Arrivals of Moroc- said Nabil Bekkali, manager of Elite wheat traders blaming a foreign the country’s Tourism Observatory tourist arrivals and 1 million addi- cans residing abroad rose by 1%. Travel DMC, which serves mainly currency crisis for shortages of the stated. tional bed nights from the first half Figures the percentages were based Hong Kong and Shanghai. staple that have left people queu- France topped the list with the of 2017. on were not available. Cao Zilai, director of Colourful ing for hours outside bakeries. highest number of tourists trav- Tourism Observatory President The Tourism Ministry is seeking Morocco Travel, set up his travel Sudan’s economy has been elling to Morocco and China had Said Mouhid said the trend would to attract 500,000 Chinese tourists agency after working for four years struggling since South Sudan the highest percentage increase allow Morocco to draw at least 1 by 2020 and the creation of a direct as an interpreter for the Chinese seceded in 2011, taking with it in number of tourists visiting the million more tourists (12.3 million fight between Morocco and China health delegation in Azilal in central three-quarters of its oil output and North African country during the for 2018 against 11.3 million in 2017) was being considered by Moroccan Morocco. depriving it of a crucial source of same time frame. and an additional 2 million bed carrier Royal Air Maroc. Zilai said he mainly dealt with foreign currency. Chinese professionals in Morocco but, since the lifting of visas, he has (Reuters) been looking to woo high-end Chi- nese tourists. “I offer tailored holiday pack- ages for my wealthy clients besides dealing with business groups,” said Zilai, adding that the Chinese were showing an increasing interest in Morocco. “Since Morocco announced the Saudi banks see visa exemption for Chinese citizens in June 2016, the number of Chi- no significant nese tourists to Morocco has risen rapidly and the boom is not over impact from lira yet,” wrote China’s official state-run press agency Xinhua. depreciation “Morocco has abundant tourism resources, with long Atlantic and There has been no significant Mediterranean coastlines, deserts, effect from the depreciation of snow-capped mountains, ancient the Turkish lira on the results and cities and other exotic attractions,” quality of Saudi Arabian bank as- it added. sets, Talaat Hafez, spokesman for Chinese Ambassador to Morocco Saudi banks, was quoted as saying Li Li said China and Morocco would in a tweet carried by the kingdom’s increase pragmatic cooperation in state TV Al Ekhbariya. various fields, including tourism, Earlier, National Commercial this year when the countries mark Bank, Saudi Arabia’s largest bank the 60th anniversary of the estab- by assets, said there was limited lishment of diplomatic ties. effect from the decline of the lira on the bank. Saad Guerraoui is a contributor to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb (Reuters) Strong growth. Tourists visit the Mausoleum of Mohamed V in Rabat. (AFP) issues. August 19, 2018 19 Economy

Alarm in Cairo as foreign debt rises to $88.1 billion

Hassan Abdel Zaher

Cairo

oreign debt statistics are set- ting off alarms in Cairo with economists warning of the F toll rising debts will have on Egypt’s ability to repay interna- tional creditors and move advance development plans. Foreign debts reached $88.1 bil- lion at the end of March, from $82.2 billion at the end of December last year, the Central Bank of Egypt said. This raises foreign debt to 36.8% of GDP, from 36.1% at the end of last year, the central bank said. “These rising foreign debts are a major burden on the national econ- omy,” said Alia al-Mahdi, an eco- nomics professor at Cairo Univer- sity. “The government will have to repay the debts and their interest as it tries to move ahead with develop- ment, something that can be impos- sible to do.” Egypt was forced to borrow as it tried to put the economy on track following unrest stemming from the 2011 revolution. With politi- cal discord and deteriorating secu- rity conditions taking a toll on the economy, the government applied for loans, including from the Inter- national Monetary Fund, which lent Egypt $12 billion. In 2015, foreign debts totalled $46 billion but Cairo’s desire to bridge a yawning budget deficit and increase foreign currency reserves meant Allaying fears. Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait speaks during a news conference in Cairo. (Reuters) that debts continued to shoot up. Egypt will pay about $30 billion in million for electricity subsidies. gross domestic product is still with- deep effects on the economy. Economists say, however, that for foreign debt services within the Egypt also plans to upgrade the in safe limits,” Finance Minister Mo- “This borrowing policy will get us Egypt to avoid a further increase in 2018-19 budget, which started in national health system and mod- hamed Maait told The Arab Weekly. nowhere if the government insists foreign debts, it must stimulate pro- July. ernise tens of thousands of schools. He added that Egypt had always to keep pursuing it,” Mahdi said. duction and attract investments. Total spending in the budget is It wants to complete a series of honoured its obligations to interna- Egypt pins its hopes on the re- “The stimulating of production $77.7 billion and the budget predicts megaprojects, including a new capi- tional organisations. covery injecting fresh cash into the will increase the exports, generate a deficit of $24 billion. This means tal between Cairo and Suez, thou- This was done, he said, even economy and encouraging foreign jobs and reduce dependence on im- that Egypt will continue to borrow sands of kilometres of roads and a during the 2011 uprising when the investments, production and ex- ports,” said Farrag Abdel Fattah, an- to close the deficit and keep the eco- long list of new cities to sustain the economy was deeply affected by ports. Economic planners expect other economics professor at Cairo nomic wheel going. national urban crush and the runa- deteriorating political and secu- economic growth at 5.8% in the University. “These are all necessary Cairo needs subsidise food for way population growth. rity conditions. Still, Egypt recently current fiscal year, from 5.5% in the measures for the economy to pick more than 70 million people in the The government says there is no came close to repaying all its debts, previous one. up in ways that make us do without national food rationing system and need for alarm so long as the econo- which totalled billions of dollars, to That rate might be feasible with further borrowing.” subsidise fuel and electricity. A total my generates enough money for the international petroleum companies the tourism sector picking up, the of $4.7 billion has been allocated for repayment of the debts. operating in it. exports rising and market activities Hassan Abdel Zaher is a food subsidies in the budget, $4.9 “There is no need for worry be- The fear, however, is that the increasing after repeated drops in Cairo-based contributor to billion for fuel subsidies and $880 cause the foreign debt ratio to the current borrowing policy will have bank interest rates. The Arab Weekly. Morocco needs more reforms before floating dirham

The Arab Weekly staff to implement reforms on a wider overall market value dropped 5% scale to boost the country’s eco- in the same period. nomic competitive power. They Banking officials said it was London mentioned that foreign investors probably too soon to speak of the and local industrialists require a steps to be taken. If the dirham ith the introduction well-performing public education remained stable, it was because of a more flexible ex- sector to produce a qualified la- it benefited from favourable ex- change rate policy, bour force. There is also need for ternal factors. The real test for the W the Moroccan govern- relaxing import duties and meas- dirham is yet to come. ment has maintained the value of ures regarding imported technol- The “external factors” refer to its currency, the dirham. However, ogies and raw materials. the drop in wheat imports, an in- wider and more comprehensive Halimi said: “What is needed crease in remittances from Moroc- reforms to attract and encourage now in a country like Morocco cans living abroad and an increase investments are needed before is not a reform in the currency in tourism revenues. Because of deciding to float it. exchange system. Before we do these factors, foreign currency In January, Moroccan authori- that, we must first carry out other reserves in Morocco shot to an all- ties increased the trading margin reforms or finish the reforms al- time high of $23.5 billion. of the dirham against hard cur- ready initiated.” Aourraz said revenues from rencies to 2.5% from the original He pointed out that Morocco tourism and remittances are not 0.3%, hoping to increase Moroc- needs to introduce reforms in reliable sources of foreign curren- can exports while preserving the its educational and vocational cy in the long run. They are sub- kingdom’s foreign currency re- training systems as well as ject to sudden fluctuations caused serves. reintroduce moral values in by external factors. For example, public affairs in general and the new generation of Moroccans the economy in particular. living abroad, in Europe essential- The central bank has ruled There is also a need to in- ly, do not have strong ties to the out a sudden full float like crease participation in pub- country as their parents used to. Egypt’s, favouring a gradual lic affairs. Easing bureaucratic rules to liberalisation. One-third of university import goods would be key for graduates each year in Mo- companies, which sometime rocco fail to find a job be- struggle to adjust plans if market In a currency basket of 60% in cause of low qualifications. conditions change quickly, bank- favour of the euro and 40% in fa- Economic expert Rashid Aour- Smooth transition. A currency dealer counts Moroccan dirhams at ers said. vour of the US dollar, the dirham raz, from the Moroccan Institute a currency exchange in Casablanca. (Reuters) The central bank has ruled out remained stable even though the for Policy Analysis, said: “Chang- a sudden full float like Egypt’s, new system gave investors and ing the currency exchange system liberating the economy. It is im- known brands in the country. favouring a gradual liberalisation. traders a wider margin for specu- is equivalent to a political consti- portant that this plan succeeds More economic bad news has It refuses to say how gradual, but lation and nourished expecta- tutional reform.” because Morocco aims to become emerged. During the first half of it has sought to downplay expec- tions that the margin would be After years of preparations and a financial centre for Africa. this year, foreign investments in tations of further steps anytime increased. with International Monetary Fund As the dirham kept stable, the Morocco were down 31%. The Cas- soon. However, High Commissioner backing, Morocco last January be- economy in Morocco was shaken ablanca Stock Exchange saw only for Planning Ahmed al-Halimi and gan the initial phase of a gradual by an increase in oil prices and the one preliminary offer of shares at (The Arab Weekly staff and other analysts said Morocco needs plan for floating the dirham and consumer boycott of three well- the beginning of the year and its Reuters) 20 August 19, 2018 Society Islam Egypt plans new museum to promote religious tolerance

May Ashraf the most important of which is the feeling of pride and belonging. Lashine said the idea of having Cairo Jewish, Christian and Islamic arte- facts together in the same museum gyptian Antiquities Minister creates a feeling of brotherhood be- Khaled al-Anani announced tween adepts of the three religions. the ministry planned to cre- It shows the public that the mono- E ate a museum dedicated to theistic religions are connected in religious tolerance. The building is a complementary, rather than com- to be in the new administrative capi- petitive, manner as demonstrated tal north-east of Cairo and a com- by the artefacts. mittee has been set up for that pur- There is a long list of museums pose. The announcement, however, commemorating events spurred by spurred controversy. ethnic or religious strife. They were Commentators questioned the set up as reminders of the dangers value of the initiative when religious of ethnic violence and religious ex- extremism has become the norm in tremism. Many European cities have Egypt and when the government has museums dedicated to religious tol- failed to come up with creative ideas erance and revolving around the of how to combat it. Others support- suffering of the Jewish people in ed the idea, suggesting it emulate particular under the Nazi regime in similar projects around the world. Germany. There are several Islamic and Cop- Perhaps the most famous example tic museums in Egypt, with good is the Museum of Tolerance in Los Unforgettable experience. Muslim pilgrims arrive at Jeddah airport prior to the start of the annual collections of documents and arte- Angeles. Opened in 1993, the muse- haj in Mecca. (AFP) facts from different eras and civi- um relies on multimedia exhibits to lisations. Most of those museums, examine racism and discrimination. however, have a purely historical approach to the subject of religious and cultural diversity and uninten- Many circles in Egypt tionally neglected to focus on the stressed the importance of idea of tolerance in a wider sense. accepting others as they are. Jeddah shines as Many countries suffer from deep societal cleavages and face the chal- lenge of achieving social harmony. The museum receives hundreds Religious and racial discord and ten- of thousands of visitors, most of sions remain easy to ignite despite them school children, each year. The Saudi Arabia’s main attempts to create models for soci- most well-known section is the Hol- etal harmony based on tolerance. ocaust exhibit where visitors are di- With the rise of terrorism in the vided into small groups and guided Middle East and the explosion of through events of the second world civil strife in many Arab countries, war. Visitors are to discuss their re- gate for haj pilgrims it has become extremely urgent for actions, an act that augments the in- governments to come up with ap- teractive museum experience. propriate measures to stop religious The Los Angeles Museum of Tol- extremism. All governments realise erance is one of the major facilities The Arab Weekly staff is his or her particular gift. For five buildings servicing the swim- that the radical cure for extremism that the US Department of Educa- the wife, only gold will suit her. ming areas. There is a marina, a and hatred is nurturing tolerance as tion and human rights organisations The daughters will get cloth for sea shuttle, playgrounds, plenty of a way of being and of living in their in the United States use to introduce Jeddah dresses. As for the parents, their sculptures and an iron bridge link- societies. school children to issues of toler- gifts are usually oud and musk ing the corniche to Prince Faisal Many circles in Egypt stressed the ance in an attractive pedagogical he Saudi city of Jeddah oils, prayer rosaries and Zamzam Bin Fahd Street. importance of accepting others as style. Children can learn about US acts as the main gate for water.” they are. It is important to dissemi- history as well as different religions. pilgrims during the haj Historic al-Alaoui is perhaps nate information about other reli- They can also experience the effects T season. After completing the best known of all of Jeddah’s The corniche in Jeddah gions and cultures. How could mu- of racism and discrimination in an long-awaited haj rituals, pilgrims souks. It is full of perfume and was designed to seums contribute to the debate and interactive manner. have a chance to visit Jeddah’s spice shops, which give it an un- accommodate 120,000 nurture religious tolerance? The museum includes a section old souks, modern shopping malls mistakable aroma. In the old days, visitors at the same time. Critics of the museum project said focusing on everyday acts of dis- and many museums or relax at al-Alaoui was the first souk pil- the idea of a tolerance museum was crimination through documents sunset on the city’s famous cor- grims encountered as they disem- naive and stereotypical. They criti- showing how incrusted such prac- niche and take pictures. barked from ships at the port and Children can find plenty of play- cised it was a superficial imitation of tices are. Another section is devoted Jeddah is a curious and amazing moved by camel caravan towards grounds and educational games the West where museums dedicated to the civil rights movement in the combination of modern buildings Mecca Gate. It was also the last on the corniche. There are many to religious and ethnic tolerance United States through huge picture and history-laden locations. souk they saw when leaving. restaurants and means of trans- have mushroomed since the second panels illustrating discrimination Pilgrims wishing to buy gifts to The old city of Jeddah specialis- portation. Corniche parking areas world war. against blacks in sports, the arts and take home find everything they es in cloth and clothing. Cloth has can accommodate 1,600 vehicles. Sayed Lashine, a professor of an- TV programming. need in Jeddah’s popular souks, long been at the top of every pil- Four of the fountains along the tiquities at Fayoum University, disa- The museum makes excellent use such as Bab Sharif, Al-Yamna grim’s shopping list. The old souk corniche are interactive. greed. He said tolerance museums of video clips and interactive dis- Souk and Haraj al-Sawarikh or in of the Mosque teems with shops The floating mosque on the cor- “are not just warehouses for stor- plays to engage the visitor and cre- the many air-conditioned malls. offering a fantastic array of cloth niche is a favourite spot for pil- ing historical items; rather, they are ate the desired effect. Pilgrims often stock up on per- from all over the world many col- grims and visitors from Asia and full-fledged cultural programmes The Tolerance Museum in Los fume, oud and oud oil, siwak, ours, shapes, designs and quality. Arab countries, especially during that include exhibitions, conferenc- Angeles is an excellent example for prayer mats picturing Mecca or The Mosque souk is a must-stop sunset prayer. They are attracted es and art festivals. The important the Egyptian Ministry of Antiquities Medina and the ever-popular gift for all pilgrims. by its unique design and decora- thing is that they create an impact to emulate. It will be a rare opportu- of prayer beads. Gold is also very Of course, next to major souks tions and the serenity of the sur- on the visitor that whatever is being nity to take advantage of the many popular as a gift for loved ones. and places visited by pilgrims, rounding sea. shown has a great value.” priceless artefacts in Egypt and put Many pilgrims like to buy gifts by there are plenty of small shops Officially, the floating mosque is Lashine pointed out that the sci- the country among nations giving the dozen. and street vendors hawking all called al-Rahma Mosque but it is ence of museums has evolved. Mod- priority to tolerance as a mode of kinds of souvenirs. known locally as Fatma al-Zahra ern museums seek to impress visi- thinking and living. Historic al-Alaoui is perhaps Once the shopping is done, pil- Mosque. The building is a distinc- tors with exhibition techniques and the best known of all of grims flock to Jeddah’s corniche tive combination of traditional technologies, like department stores May Ashraf is an Egyptian to relax and enjoy the wonder- and modern architecture and has that strive to please customers. writer. Jeddah’s souks. It is full of ful seascape. It is time for strolls been equipped with the latest There is science behind exhibiting perfume and spice shops, and plenty of pictures. With its sound and lighting technologies. artefacts and arranging them coher- which give it an wide variety of huge sculptures Should a visitor wish to glimpse ently. The point of the exhibit is unmistakable aroma. and edifices, Jeddah’s corniche at Jeddah’s rich history and her- to create an effect is a huge open-air museum listed itage, there are many museums on the visitor and For pilgrims, the trip to Mecca in the “Guinness Book of World and buildings in the city’s his- bring out differ- is an unforgettable spiritual ex- Records.” Al-Saif Beach Corniche toric section to explore. Jeddah ent feelings, perience. That is why they are of- offers unique walkways, green ar- has preserved many of its ancient ten keen to buy souvenirs and to eas and plenty of resting spots. mosques and famous historic document their stay. In an age of Pilgrims go to the corniche to re- sites. The city also includes sci- smart phones, pilgrims have be- lax and meet other pilgrims from ence and private museums. The come adept at taking selfies and all over the world for a chance to private museum of Al Taybet City instantaneously sharing them exchange information about their Museum for International Civilisa- with loved ones. countries and their haj experi- tion contains 14,000 historic piec- “The gifts we take home have ence. es exhibited in 67 halls. a tremendous impact on relatives The corniche in Jeddah was de- Jeddah’s old wall is still stand- and friends,” said Tunisian pilgrim signed to accommodate 120,000 ing proudly, a witness to the city’s Hajji Ibrahim al-Diwani. “They visitors at the same time. It in- long history as well as to the tre- hold a great spiritual value. To cludes 17 plazas, 14 water foun- mendous changes the city has un- For a peaceful coexistence. Minarets of a mosque and a cross each member of the family, there tains, five observation towers and dergone in its modern era. above a church in the El-Marg district of Cairo. (Reuters) August 19, 2018 21 Society Youth Young, middle-class Egyptians compete with street vendors

Shirine Daidamuni street for lack of employment op- portunities in white-collar jobs. This upset in the social order has Cairo created an unusual atmosphere of tough competition for street space. ising poverty and unem- The tensions between the new and ployment in Egypt have old vendors reek of class struggle turned street vendors from and social discord. R random social and eco- The Egyptian government has nomic phenomena to fixtures sell- tried to control the situation. ing products hard to find in tradi- Acting on promises by Egyptian tional stores. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the A good portion of the population government provided university has come to depend on street ven- graduates willing to set up their dors and their low prices that match own street operations with special consumers’ low incomes. vehicles, wooden stalls, financial Street vendors are everywhere. A aid and bank loans. new generation of young, middle- Ahmad Samir, a street vendor for class people seeking a source of in- 30 years, said the government is bi- come is giving them competition. ased in favour of vendors from the Not long ago, society, especially middle class. He wondered aloud: middle-class university graduates, “The rich have always treated us frowned on the occupation of street as parasites. So why are they taking vendors. Now they don’t feel above our sidewalks?” The class-conflict working as street vendors them- overtones are clear. selves. With the beginning of the sum- mer vacation, students and gradu- ates started swelling the number of There are about 6 million vendors in the streets. They insist street vendors in Egypt, on equal access to public space. with women representing Mohamad Mustapha is one of 30% and children 15%. them. Every day after sunset, he drives his car equipped with a cap- Out of need. An Egyptian street vendor sells traditional hats in Old Cairo. (Reuters) For social analysts, this trend is puccino machine to a market place likely to carry wider societal con- in Nasr City, east of Cairo. He said sequences as university graduates of the other vendors: “They’re con- Parliamentarian Mohamad Ab- as much as studies of the new so- Experts proposed that authori- turn to becoming survivalists in- stantly making up quarrels with dul Ghani commented on the vital cial realities, especially now that ties should help vendors organise stead of pursuing career ambitions me. I graduated from the Faculty importance of street vendors to middle-class people have started and create their own representa- or playing the usual role of the of Commerce two years ago and I the poor classes, especially during joining this category. tion structures. These structures country’s elites as agents of social couldn’t find a job so I came to this times of rising inflation and pov- Maher said the government’s ap- can negotiate with the government, and cultural change. area and one of the vendors took erty. He said they provide goods ad- proach to helping street vendors organise the profession and guar- Estimates by of the Federation me to the boss.” equately priced to match the mod- was too traditional and inefficient. antee everybody’s compliance with for Economic Development As- The street boss is an individual est means of large sections of the As usual, the government spent the official solutions and measures sociations, state there are about who claims control of the sidewalks population. millions of dollars on new market because they will be the fruit of a 6 million street vendors in Egypt, of some streets and rents them to Aya Maher, professor of human buildings that the vendors have participatory planning and devel- with women representing 30% and vendors for $15 a month. Musta- resources at the German University shunned. Many of the solutions opment process. children 15%. pha was clearly angry when he said in Cairo, said dealing with the phe- proposed were from people who do About 10% of university gradu- he had refused to pay because the nomenon of street vendors does not represent the vendors, so the Shirine Daidamuni is an Egyptian ates were pushed to work on the sidewalk belonged to everyone. not require new measures or laws vendors do not abide by them. journalist.

Viewpoint Lacking opportunities, Lebanese youth are growing disillusioned and desperate

s I was strolling one woes is an attempt to cover the real morning in the bazaar reasons behind them: the very of the peaceful city of profit-oriented nature of the Lebanese economy, which is Udeid Nassar Zahle in the Bekaa Valley, I heard a young encouraged by the coalition in man say: “Go on, power. The Lebanese economy is laugh.A It’s good to laugh. No shame based on revenue-generating there.” banking, real estate development I thought he was speaking on the for renting purposes, speculation phone but discovered that he was and all other kinds of brokerage loudly talking to himself. He had services, financial corruption and no phone in his hands and no embezzlement of public funds. earphones in his ears. I continued With operations of this nature, you my stroll while the guy talked in a don’t need to hire a lot of white- loud voice until he passed me and collar and blue-collar labour. disappeared into the crowd. In these circumstances, the It really wasn’t strange to see a Lebanese youth would not give a young person in Lebanon talk to lousy dime for the frequent himself out loud. You see many of appearances in the media of them these days. Young people in Lebanon’s Central Bank governor Lebanon are under many pres- to reassure the Lebanese that the sures, which are growing by the Don’t you wish! A Lebanese young man, carrying the national flag, country’s financial health is day: social pressure, economic reads a graffiti on concrete blast walls on the road leading to the excellent and that the Lebanese lira pressure and psychological governmental palace in Beirut. (AFP) is stable given the high reserves of pressure that drive them to this hard currency at the Central Bank. kind of behaviour and even No, they could not care less about suicide. affiliation and loyalty. workers then were harassed by the the phenomenal profits of the During the first half of 2018, Most young Lebanese want to same forces that are now claiming banking sector or about Lebanon’s there were 200 suicides in Leba- migrate to anywhere else in the that the Syrian refugees are making excellent credit ratings internation- non. It is a grave phenomenon but world. They are confident that life it tougher for the Lebanese to have ally. the authorities did not seem to pay elsewhere will open new horizons decent living conditions. None of that ensures reliable attention. Two hundred cases of for them and perhaps provide a Syrian workers in Lebanon have electricity, clean water or good suicide may not sound enormous better future. Alas, for most of always accepted modest wages that health services to the Lebanese for a populous country but it is for them, the prospect of securing an Lebanese workers would turn citizen. It can’t even solve the one with a small population, such entry visa remains null. down. They were denied all waste problem. So, how can one as Lebanon. The sad part is that for The sad part is that most of these manner of social security or labour expect it to ensure employment those young people who refuse desperate young people blame the rights and they have made millions opportunities for tens of thousands even the idea of suicide, life is not huge number of Syrian refugees in for business owners in all sectors, of Lebanese youth, to relieve the any less frustrating or hopeless. Lebanon for unemployment and especially in agriculture and pressure of soaring prices and to It does not seem that we in deteriorating living conditions. construction. provide workers with decent wages Lebanon are at the end of our crisis; Their thinking is baseless and is the As to those Syrians who set up for a decent life? we should expect worse to come. result of an intentional fallacy that their own private businesses in Today in Lebanon, young people It’s going to get even tougher for must be exposed. Lebanon, such as restaurants and are walking down the streets young people: no jobs, lower A Syrian labour force has existed coffee shops, they are not refugees talking loudly to themselves. Very Most young Lebanese salaries and rising costs of living. in Lebanon for decades and in good but are supporters of the Assad soon, however, they will find out are confident that life The future looks bleak for them. numbers. At no time in Lebanon’s regime in Syria. They enjoy who should be hearing their voices. elsewhere will open Every day, the unemployment rate modern history did the number of political cover and are safe from To those who are closing their eyes sets a record. Employment Syrian workers in Lebanon drop harassment by the authorities and ears to what’s happening in the new horizons for opportunities have shrunk to a few below 400,000, except for the two particularly now that Hezbollah street, the street will not take long them and perhaps positions in public administration, years following the withdrawal of and its allies have the upper hand to surprise them tomorrow. the military and the police force. Syrian armed forces from Lebanon in Lebanon. provide a better Even those low-paying jobs are after former Prime Minister Rafik Blaming the Syrian refugees for Udeid Nassar is a Lebanese future. handed out based on political Hariri’s assassination. The Syrian Lebanon’s social and economic journalist. 22 August 19, 2018 Culture Khalil Gibran’s writings bring inspiration to London exhibition Karen Dabrowska cused on Gibran’s saying that all ceeds going towards peace-building work is empty save when there in the Middle East through art. is love. His drawing “Livelihood” Speaking at the opening of the London with pencil and ink on paper shows exhibition, Lebanon’s Ambassador a figure carrying a fish, a symbol of to the United Kingdom Rami Mor- ore than 500 visitors goodness and provisions, while in tada described Gibran as a univer- packed Sotheby’s north the background the shrine shows salist in his outreach. “To sum up galleries on the open- that faith is rewarded. Gibran in one single word I would M ing of “A Guide for Our Egyptian artist and researcher say he is inspirational — inspira- Times,” an exhibition of the works Zeinab Nour said she has always tional in his writings, art and even of 38 artists inspired by the writings been fascinated by trees, symbols in his romance!” — especially “The Prophet” — of of life in ancient Egypt. “Both from President of CARAVAN Paul-Gor- Lebanese poet Gibran Khalil Gibran my Egyptian visual heritage and don Chandler began his speech with (1883-1931). from Gibran’s book I received an a quote from Gibran: “We have for- “The Prophet” is divided into aesthetic vision about an Orphalese gotten — or have we? — that there is chapters dealing with topics of tree as a key of life (ankh) symbolis- but one universal language and that life, including love, marriage, chil- ing a person who gives without dis- its voice is art.” dren, joy and sorrow, crime and criminating between people even He referred to the current chal- punishment, freedom, passion, if they take from him or her,” Nour lenging times, characterised by friendship, good and evil, religion said in her artist’s statement. Or- “misunderstanding and stereotypes and death. Each painting was ac- phalese is an island that is the set- of the ‘other,’ the rise of populism, companied by a brief biography of ting for “The Prophet.” nationalism and ethnocentric think- the artist, an artist’s statement and ing, the increase in hate crimes and the quote from Gibran, mostly from bigotry, anti-immigration senti- “The Prophet,” that inspired the The exhibition presented ments, the development of political work. the works of 38 artists authoritarianism, the lack of equal- Colourful abstract figures and inspired by the ity for women, the phobias of those scenes from nature dominated the writings — especially “The from other faith and traditions and exhibition. A self-taught artist and a Prophet” — of Lebanese poet the growing discord between the member of the Bahraini royal fami- Gibran Khalil Gibran. Middle East and West.” ly Lulwa al-Khalifa exhibited “Blind “At times like this we look for Faith,” an oil-on-canvas painting of The exhibition “Khalil Gibran: guides to provide a way forward a woman looking sceptically into an A Guide for our Times” builds on and hope and I don’t think there uncertain future behind 26 braided nine years of East-West arts initia- could be a better guide than Khalil lines — a reference to the 26 lessons tives implemented by CARAVAN, Gibran whose voice is timeless. He of “The Prophet.” an international peace-building was born into what was then an Unique inspiration. Ahmed Saber’s “Livelihood.” (Karen Dabrowska) Laudi Abilama, an artist and arts NGO that originated in Cairo in exclusive, sectarian and intolerant printmaker based between Leba- 2009 with the objective of building historic [Maronite] religious com- Chandler said quoting a passage a specialist in contemporary art non and England, exhibited an bridges through arts between the munity but became someone who from the work “Sand and Foam”: from the Middle East, with more acrylic-on-paper portrait of Gibran. creeds and cultures of the Middle embraced all in our world and as “Should you sit upon a cloud you than 25 years’ experience with the In her artist’s statement, she re- East and the West. Acclaimed and a result became embraced by all,” would not see the boundary be- international art market, and Mari- ferred to accounts of Gibran’s life emerging Middle Eastern contem- Chandler said. tween one country and another, nor on Fromlet Baecker, the founder of that divulge a series of metaphors porary artists were invited to con- “The Prophet” has been translat- the boundary stone between a farm Culture Bridge Egypt, which pro- of lust, desire, ambition and great tribute an original work inspired by ed into 40 languages. and a farm. It is a pity you cannot sit motes the country through its art. suffering in understanding his Gibran’s message of universality, “I love the way Gibran expressed upon a cloud.” identity. peace harmony and love. All the his collective embrace of humanity “Khalil Gibran: A Guide for our Karen Dabrowska is an Arab Egyptian artist Ahmed Saber fo- works were on sale with the pro- with the poetic imagery of cloud,” Times” was curated by Janet Rady, Weekly contributor in London. Young Egyptian writers have a tough time publishing their work

Mahmoud Zaki that that was his share only. wak Publishing House, said pub- “The crisis of a rising writer is lishers are not professional in not just to find a publishing house dealing with authors. Publishing hmed Kamal is a 27-year- that believes in his experience opportunities for young writers old writer who has just and is willing to finance the print- are more available now that there completed a lifelong ing and distribution costs of his are many young publishers in the A dream: writing his first work but it lies in the fact that the market. He said many publishing novel. It took him years of writing author remains the weak side in interests have selection and read- and rewriting. His dream seemed any contract with the publishing ing committees and are willing to to sometimes fade as he tinkered house, said Ahmed Samir, a young cover the printing and distribution with his text but, finally, he had a writer who has published three costs of selected works. novel under his name. sarcastic novels. “There are really He said a good reputation is the All he had to do was have it pub- no guarantees for him to know his most valuable asset for a publish- lished but Kamal was in for a big share in the profits or to have a say er, so publishing houses are keen surprise: The publishing world in the distribution or even the cov- on selecting the best content and was an unfriendly and obscure er of his book.” not swindling writers. Promoting world, more like an unsolvable Samir said the biggest scandal a new generation of excellent writ- riddle. was that there were no authorities ers does work to the advantage of Publishing means and oppor- or agencies to consult to deter- publishers as well. tunities did not seem to be lack- mine the true figures for sales or ing. Public and private publishing printed copies. Publishing houses houses compete with digital me- have a monopoly on that informa- Deprived of financial dia for new works to publish and tion. resources, public publishing their numbers are growing. Yet Experts said the weakest link in agencies are far from able to the process of breaking into this the operation for young writers is compete with private closed world for Kamal and other the absence of legislation protect- publishing houses. literary creators seemed daunting. Troubled times. A man looks at a book outside of a bookshop in ing their rights and copyrights. The Egyptian government has Cairo. (Reuters) Law 82 of 2002 guarantees copy- stopped publishing and promot- rights but writers lack the means Internet platforms for publish- ing serious cultural work. It was to enforce it. ing digital books have become an thanks to government support but with a profit motive. The lofty is to split costs with the publishing The weak position of writers attractive alternative for young that 20th-century literary giants purpose of disseminating creativ- house. is compounded by the absence writers in search of an audience. such as Ihsan Abdel Quddous, ity and science quickly shifted to The third is to have the pub- of a protective structure or trade Online platforms such as Our Youssef el-Sebai and Yahia Haqqi doing business according to mar- lishing house shoulder all costs. union. There is a writers’ guild in books and My books select works, had the chance to make their work ket dynamics. In this case, a reading committee Egypt but joining it is complicated revise them and publish them for available to the public. For the There are exceptions to the might take months to evaluate the so it is usually ignored. a small fee or sometimes for free. new generations of young writers, pattern. Some publishers have a work submitted and sometimes it Private publishing houses opt Online publishing, however, is that opportunity does not exist. genuine interest in revitalising the simply doesn’t bother to answer. for works with the most profit po- far from replacing printed copies. Public publishing agencies are world of books but the majority of Kamal said that “despite the ap- tential and that are the least costly For most publishers in Egypt, on- still in the market in Egypt and private publishers are interested parent easy choices, a young writ- to publish. That means they will line sales do not exceed 1% of pa- carry the lustre of their former glo- only in maximising profits; culture er is, in fact, pressured into either usually publish works by well- per-based sales. Readers still find ry. Deprived of financial resources, is secondary. bearing the unexpected cost that established authors with a solid pleasure in reading printed books. however, they are far from able to Today, a writer faces three choic- most young people cannot afford base of readers or go for books for Readers also say online works are compete with private publishing es. The first is to finance the print- or fall into the trap of sharing 50- general readership, such as reli- of a lesser quality and literary val- houses. When the government ing and distribution of his or her 50 the costs and profits.” He said gious ones, horoscopes, sentimen- ue than printed ones. withdrew from promoting culture book. This would be the quickest that many publishing houses pre- tal novels, horror stories and, of for culture, scores of publishing way to get published even if the tend to share the cost and charge course, parodies and sarcasm. Mahmoud Zaki is an Egyptian houses appeared to fill in the void work is of low quality. The second the writer the full cost and claim Hani Abdallah, manager of Ri- writer. August 19, 2018 23 Culture Baghdad Downtown initiative helping preserve city’s architectural heritage

Oumayma Omar take part in Hosni’s 3-hour weekly tours. “I had a dream haunting me and that is to raise awareness Baghdad among Iraqi youth and children about Baghdad’s history and work adinat al-Salam — the on preserving its unique architec- city of peace — and tural identity,” he said. “ the Baghadas — resi- In addition to introducing the M dents of Old Bagh- history of Baghdad, Hosni said the dad — are the source of traditions tours try to discern the public reac- and legends transmitted across tion to declining heritage. centuries and generations and they “So far, the response has been must be preserved,” said Iraqi ar- very positive and many people chitect Mohamad Hosni, founder of want to register in the tours that the Baghdad Downtown initiative. take place on the weekend every The initiative seeks to check the Friday,” he said. “One old lady in- decline of Baghdad’s traditional sisted on completing the whole centre and the drain of its native 3-hour tour to revive her childhood population. memories of Baghdad. Even young “Rebuilding cities requires bring- children not older than 6 were so ing back life to them and this can passionate about seeing the places only be done by rehabilitating the and learning their history.” old quarters, which can be trans- The tour includes the main cara- formed into tourist attractions to vanserais such as Khan al-Zouhour admire their wealth of heritage,” and Khan Moudallal, the old city Hosni said. walls and the alleys of Haidar, Hosni’s initiative seeks to sen- Wathba, Akouliya and Kamel, sitise Iraqis to the importance of which go back hundreds of years. preserving their architectural herit- Baghdad was founded under the age and traditional fabric through second Abbasid Caliph al-Mansur walking tours across Baghdad’s old (ruled 754-775). The first major quarters and narrow alleys lined structure erected was the famous with traditional buildings, includ- round city, called Madinat al-Salam. Reviving memories. A group of tourists prepares to tour Baghdad historic quarters as part of the ing caravanserais, Turkish baths, During the five centuries of the Ab- Baghdad Downtown initiative. (Oumayma Omar) souks and houses with mashrabi- basid caliphate, Baghdad prospered yas — carved wood windows. on all fronts — cultural, artistic, lit- erary and religious. However, its tion work, looting and vandalism. first participants in his tours. It is country’s heritage and history.” golden age was under the fifth ca- Traditional residential neigh- important to have an outspoken Attar said the government has The initiative targets liph, Harun al-Rashid, whose reign bourhoods have given way to the loving voice seeking to protect been largely investing in oil pro- landlords and financiers, was a time of cultural, scientific development of new quarters of Baghdad and stand against the ugly jects and the promotion of religious encouraging them to invest and religious progress. The caliph the city. This, along with the dete- changes and arbitrary destruction tourism “as if Iraq had these two as- in the restoration of the old established the first library called rioration of structures, lack of infra- of its traditional buildings and her- pects only.” buildings and make them “House of Wisdom” in Baghdad. structure and poor internal sanita- itage sites,” she said. The Baghdad Downtown Fa- sustainable. While it escaped the ravages tion, has driven much of the native “Ignorance and greed of develop- cebook page amassed more than of the Crusades, the city was de- population outside the old area. ers resulted in wiping out of many 2,000 followers in just a few stroyed in February 1258 by the Antique collector Bochra al-Attar landmark buildings, including the months. Hosni said his initiative “The best way to do it is by stroll- Mongol onslaught. bemoaned the “disastrous state” of oldest hammam in Baghdad under targets landlords and financiers, ing through the alleys and remi- Today, Iraq’s heritage is being lost Baghdad’s heritage, which she said the pretext that it stood near the encouraging them to invest in the niscing of the stories and traditions at a rapid rate. The historic areas in was disappearing “because of gov- mausoleum of a religious figure,” restoration of the old buildings and that are closely linked to these plac- Baghdad, like those in other parts ernment neglect and the society’s Attar said. “It is very problematic make them sustainable. es. The names carry special signifi- of Iraq, suffer from large-scale ur- ignorance of the precious value of when you are dealing with people cance for Iraqis because they relate ban development and engineering the old quarters.” of regressive mentalities who look Oumayma Omar, based in to the families who have lived there works, neglect and decay, the dem- Attar, who is also an architect, only after their personal interest Baghdad, is a contributor to the for a long time,” Hosni said. olition and clearance of buildings praised Hosni’s Baghdad Down- notwithstanding the big harm and Culture and Society sections of Groups of 30 people of all ages and wide areas, ill-advised restora- town initiative. “I was among the loss done to the society and the The Arab Weekly.

Viewpoint Aden film-makers hope to triumph over war

den has triumphed lobbies from northern Yemen. over the war insti- The series depicted how employ- gated by the Houthis, ees were coerced into selling their Saleh Abou Odhel Iran’s proxies in jobs and the factories. “We do not Yemen. On August 7, want to mix art with politics but we Aden screened its first have our distinctive character in featureA film, ushering in a new era Aden. We like socially conscious of normalcy far from the confusion drama. We will continue to battle of Yemeni politics. with everything we have to return The film was the first produced Aden to its rightful place in Yemeni and filmed in Aden, the interim history and heritage,” Mafraq Yemeni capital. The film — “Ten said. Days Before the Wedding” — Mafraq worked as assistant depicts the hellish living condi- director for “Ten Days.” He said tions of Aden’s inhabitants during that there are other feature films in the war. the pipeline, all about Aden as a Aden suffered major damage city of peaceful coexistence. during the three years of fight- He revealed that he had just ing. finished writing the script for a The film’s producers pointed out Inside look. Poster of Amr Gamal’s “Ten Days Before the Wedding.” film that depicts crimes committed that Aden hasn’t experienced by the Houthis in Aden. The story popular cinema since 1994 when focuses on the May 2015 massacre theatres and movie houses in the in southern Aden. Despite conditions of high of refugees in the city district of Al city were destroyed during the The project took shape after temperatures and unreliable Tawahi as they were trying to flee civil war. After that war, the Yemeni TV channels refused to electricity, scriptwriter Marwan Ali the fighting in Aden. Muslim Brotherhood closed any produce local series in Aden, Mafraq was working on a script for Mafraq said he hopes to see the facility that had to do with arts, saying there were no funds. a local television series about cinema industry in Aden develop theatre and culture. The distinctive Aden accent is social issues in Aden. “Even when to match what is found in other A select group of known theatre quite popular with many Yemenis. we finish writing the script, we will Arab countries. Ideas for documen- figures from southern Yemen, Despite that, Yemeni TV channels face difficulties producing it. tary films abound and simply along with many promising artists, refused to produce any show in There aren’t channels willing to require the production funds. made “Ten Days” with Yemeni Aden during Ramadan. This was finance and produce local TV The traditional love of local Aden has a long director Amr Gamal. considered a challenge by local series,” he said. cinema and drama is an encourag- theatre and cinema The story takes place in the old artists who decided to produce a Mafraq, in his 30s, has written ing factor. Mafraq insisted that tradition. The first city of Aden and shows the effect feature film completely in Aden to for many series and plays that were investing in cinema in Aden is of events in Yemen on the lives of help reviving the cinema indus- well-received. The most distinc- economically viable and would theatre play in the inhabitants. Many characters in try. tive series written by Mafraq was benefit the city economically, Arabian Peninsula the film were inspired by citizens, Aden has a long theatre and “Last Chance,” which told the story socially and culturally. including their local accents and cinema tradition. The first theatre of how the factories of southern was put on stage in customs. The film was shot in the play in the Arabian Peninsula was Yemen were seized after the Saleh Abou Odhel is a Yemeni 1910 in Aden. old quarters of the district of Kriter put on stage in 1910 in Aden. Yemeni Unification by powerful writer. 24 August 19, 2018 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Egypt’s ‘bride of the Mediterranean’ Agenda Hammamet: is a year-round destination for tourists Through August 26 Hammamet, a Tunisian town on the northern shore of the Gulf Marwa al-A’sar of Hammamet, is the site of the 54th Hammamet International Festival. Concerts and plays are Alexandria scheduled for more than a month.

ubbed “the bride of the Byblos: Mediterranean,” Egypt’s September 5-10 port city of Alexandria, D named after its founder The Lebanon Latin Festival Alexander the Great, is a year- takes place every year in Edde round destination that fits all Sands with artists from around budgets. the world. Dance workshops Established in 331BC, Alexandria are scheduled in Salsa, Bachata, is the country’s second largest city Kizomba, cha cha cha, hip-hop, where travellers can spend quality Samba, Lambada, Oriental, Dabke time in clean, tidy two- and three- and Afro-Cubano, in addition to star hotels or luxurious resorts shows and performances. with their private beaches. The top place for breakfast would Dubai: be Mohamed Ahmed restaurant in September 6-8 Mahatet el-Raml in downtown Al- exandria. It serves the best local Written by French composer foul (cooked fava beans with sesa- Georges Bizet, and first staged in me paste and green salad) as well 1875, the opera “Carmen” will be as spicy falafel. performed at the Dubai Opera by A visit to Mohamed Ahmed res- the Armenian National Academic taurant is no less important than Theatre Opera and Orchestra. any of the sightseeing venues in the city. Tangier: “We have been receiving visitors September 20-23 from all over the globe, including Queen Sofia of Spain, whose pic- The 19th Tangier’s Jazz Festival ture is hanging on the wall with the will feature international and restaurant owner,” one waiter said Pharaonic souvenir items on display near the historic Qaitbay Citadel in Alexandria. (Reuters) local jazz artists. Over four days, proudly. visitors can enjoy free street Alexandria remains a major performances, free dance courses tourist destination in large part lived and created his works. The and jazz concerts. This year’s because of its cultural diversity. museum encompasses pictures of festival will host performers Flo A trip there could be for rest and different stages of his life, his hand- Bauer, Michael Lauren, Matthieu recreation and at the same time written will and birth certificate in Bore and United Colors of Medi- a journey into the history of the Greek and many manuscripts and terranee. magnificent city. books,” said the museum curator “The cosmopolitan city’s rich Mohamed el-Sayed. El Gouna: history could always be seen in The Montazah Palace Gardens September 20-28 Greco-Roman landmarks and old offer an amazing landscape with cafes founded by Greeks, Italians gardens, beaches and international El Gouna, on the Egyptian Red and Armenians, who started im- fast-food restaurants. One can also Sea coast, will host the second El migrating to Alexandria in the 19th visit Montazah Palace, which was Gouna Film Festival. A diverse century at the time Alexandria was inhabited by Egypt’s monarchy selection of films is scheduled. a key Mediterranean commercial until it was toppled in 1952. The programme includes docu- hub,” tour guide Mohamed Fahmy The Alexandria library, reincar- mentary, narrative and short film said. nated in the disc-shaped, ultra- competitions in addition to the modern Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Audience Award. was the archive of the ancient The best place to shop for world. Cultural events and activi- Amman: souvenirs is al-Manshia ties take place at the library for September 26-October 6 as well as Mahatet adults and children at affordable el-Raml districts in prices. The 18th Amman International downtown. The remains of the Roman Em- Book Fair welcomes 500 printing pire in Alexandria can be wit- houses from various countries. nessed in the amphitheatre lo- Egypt will be the guest of honour Those who love paintings, sculp- cated in central Alexandria’s Kom for this year’s fair. tures or history will find some- el-Dikka district. thing fascinating at the Alexandria “The Roman amphitheatre is a Cairo: National Museum, which has more major landmark in Alexandria. It September 27-29 than 1,000 exhibits. Inaugurated was built in 2AD to host popular in 2003, the museum displays a va- events of that era,” Fahmy said. CairoComix Festival, produced riety of artefacts dating to Roman, Tourists can check out the amaz- A view of Abu al-Abbas al-Mursi Mosque in Alexandria. (Reuters) at the American University in pre-Islamic and Pharaonic times. ing Qaitbay Citadel built by Mam- Cairo’s Tahrir Square Campus, In a century-old building on luk Sultan Qaitbay in 1477 to pro- brings together artists, publishers, Cavafy Street in downtown Alex- tect Alexandria from crusaders’ Close to the citadel is Alexan- The aquarium is also home to the speakers and fans of comics from andria, literature lovers can see attacks from the sea. The fort is dria’s aquarium, which has a va- Marine Research Institute. around the world for an extensive where the great Greek poet Con- thought to incorporate masonry riety of species of fish and turtles Going for a swim in a private programme of exhibitions, talks stantine Peter Cavafy (1863-1933) from the legendary Pharos of Al- from the Mediterranean and Red beach is possible at the Greek Club and workshops about the comics spent most of his life. exandria lighthouse, which once seas around Egypt, as well as from for an entrance fee of 150 Egyptian industry. “The apartment is where Cavafy stood just offshore. the Nile and the Amazon rivers. pounds ($8.40). Visitors can enjoy privacy on a nice sandy beach and Abu Dhabi: enjoy tasty fish and other seafood. October 5 The club’s Egyptian-Greek ad- ministrator, nicknamed Johnny, Caribbean Beach Festival is the said the place has been receiving premium music, food and dance visitors from all over the world festival celebrating Caribbean, since it was inaugurated in 1959. African, American and Latino The best place to shop for souve- cultures through music, food and nirs is al-Manshia as well as Maha- dance. The event at Yas Beach tet el-Raml districts in downtown. features an array of food trucks, Good, reasonably priced restau- stilt walkers and games. rants are available all over Alex- andria, mainly serving fresh fish Cairo: and different types of sea food. For October 11-13 desert, Alexandrian harissa is the best local option sold at several The Cairo Jazz Festival brings sweets stores across the city. local and international musicians “I enjoyed my time in Alexandria to perform. Most performances to the maximum,” said Mathew are at the venue halls of the Greek Adams, a 25-year-old US citizen. Campus and the Cairo Jazz Club. “My visit was a mixture of recrea- tional activities and cultural tours, We welcome submissions of besides the people here are very calendar items related to hospitable, friendly and helpful.” cultural events of interest to Alexandria, 200km north of Cai- travellers in the Middle East ro, is easily accessible by bus, train and North Africa. or car. Please send tips to: Marwa al-A’sar is a Cairo-based [email protected] A visitor poses for a picture on the beach in the coastal city of Alexandria. (AP) journalist.