Broughton Bypass Full Business Case September 2015 Document control sheet BPP 04 F8 version 17 July 2014 Project: Broughton Bypass Client: Lancashire County Council Project Number: B2237509 Document Title: Full Business Case Ref. No: FBC 1.0 Originated by Checked by Reviewed by NAME NAME NAME ORIGINAL 1.0 E Downer / S Makov / S Kelly L Cardwell S. 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Broughton Bypass Full Business Case, September 2015 Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Purpose of Document 3 1.3 Document Structure 3 2 Scheme History & Scheme Description 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Scheme History 6 2.3 Scheme Description 9 3 The Strategic Case 12 3.1 Introduction 12 3.2 Existing Arrangements 12 3.3 Identified Problems and Issues 17 3.4 Scheme Objectives 21 3.5 Alternative Options 22 3.6 Strategic Fit 26 3.7 Political Support 28 3.8 Stakeholders 29 3.9 Internal or External Business Drivers 33 3.10 Synergy 34 3.11 Conclusion 34 4 The Economic Case 36 4.1 Introduction 36 4.2 Methodology 36 4.3 Assumptions 40 4.4 Transport Economic Efficiency 43 4.5 Safety Benefits 46 4.6 Environmental and Social Impacts 46 4.7 Distributional Impacts 50 4.8 Wider Economic Benefits 52 4.9 Appraisal Summary Table 53 4.10 Value for Money Statement 53 4.11 Sensitivity Testing 55 4.12 Environmental Benefits 55 4.13 Summary of Benefits 56 4.14 Conclusion 58 5 The Financial Case 59 5.1 Introduction 59 5.2 Methodology 59 5.3 Assumptions - Works 60 5.4 Base Costs 63 Broughton Bypass Full Business Case, September 2015 5.5 Quantified Risk Assessment 63 5.6 Optimism Bias 64 5.7 Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk and Optimism Bias 65 5.8 Funding Arrangements 65 5.9 Maintenance 67 5.10 Alternative Funding Arrangements 67 5.11 Conclusion 67 6 The Commercial Case 69 6.1 Introduction 69 6.2 Procurement Method 69 6.3 Programme Implications and Risk 71 6.4 Payment Mechanism 72 6.5 Pricing Framework and Charging Mechanism 72 6.6 Risk Allocation and Transfer 72 6.7 Contract Length 72 6.8 Contract Management 72 6.9 Conclusion 73 7 The Management Case 74 7.1 Introduction 74 7.2 Governance 74 7.3 Assurance 78 7.4 Delivery Programme 82 7.5 Risk Management 82 7.6 Communications and Stakeholder Management 83 7.7 Monitoring and Evaluation 86 7.8 Conclusion 90 8 Summary and Conclusions 91 8.1 Summary 91 8.2 Conclusions 92 Broughton Bypass Full Business Case, September 2015 Figures & Tables Figures Figure 1-A Location of Broughton 1 Figure 2-A Scheme Location 5 Figure 2-B Summary of Scheme History 8 Figure 2-C Approximate Scheme Alignment 9 Figure 3-A Existing arrangements around Broughton 13 Figure 3-B Proposed Developments around Broughton 16 Figure 3-C Location of Problems and Issues around Broughton 17 Figure 4-A Value for Money Assessment Process 37 Figure 4-B Cordoned network 42 Figure 4-C TUBA Analysis 44 Figure 4-D Sector Map 45 Figure 7-A Broughton Bypass Project Governance Structure 76 Figure 7-B City Deal Infrastructure Delivery - Governance 77 Figure 7-C Logic Map 88 Tables Table 3-1 Identified Problems and Issues 19 Table 3-2 Journey Times along A6 2017 Do Minimum 20 Table 3-3 Journey Times along Whittingham Lane 2017 Do Minimum 20 Table 3-4 Intervention Packages /Themes Identified during Optioneering 24 Table 3-5 Summary of Alternative Options 25 Table 3-6 RAG Analysis of strategic fit of Broughton Bypass 28 Table 3-7 Stakeholder Group responses 30 Table 4-1 Monetised Time Benefits by Size of Time Saving 44 Table 4-2 LSOAs and Population by Income Group in Broughton Bypass area of Impact 51 Table 4-3 Core, Low Growth and Dependent Development Test Results 55 Table 4-4 Summary of Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of Scheme 58 Table 5-1 Cost Estimate Breakdown 62 Table 5-2 High Risk Items from Quantified Risk Assessment 64 Table 5-3 Recommended Optimism Bias Uplifts - TAG Unit A1.2 65 Table 5-4 Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk and Optimism Bias 65 Table 5-5 Funding and Spend Summary 66 Table 7-1 Standard Monitoring Requirements 87 Table 7-2 Standard Monitoring – Summary 89 Table 8-1 RAG Assessment of Broughton Bypass Business Case 93 Broughton Bypass Full Business Case, September 2015 Appendices Appendix A Scheme Drawings – Broughton Bypass & A6 Appendix B Statement of Case Appendix C Model Forecasting Report - Broughton Appendix D Local Model Validation Report Appendix E Policy Review Appendix F Economic Assessment Report Appendix G Appraisal Summary Table Appendix H Distributional Impacts Appraisal Appendix I Transport Economic Efficiency Appendix J Environmental & Social Benefits Appendix K Risk Register Appendix L Signed Letter from Section 151 Officer Appendix M Scheme Programme Appendix N Infrastructure Delivery Project Board Minutes – Procurement Approach Approval Appendix O Monitoring & Evaluation Methodology Report Appendix P Communications & Stakeholder Plan Broughton Bypass Full Business Case, September 2015 Glossary AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic AMCB Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits AQMA Air Quality Management Area AST Appraisal Summary Table BCR Benefit to Cost Ratio CDIDF City Deal Infrastructure Delivery Fund COBALT COst And Benefits to Accidents – Light Touch CPO Compulsory Purchase Order DfT Department for Transport DI Distributional Impacts DM Do Minimum DMRB Design Manual for Roads and Bridges DS Do Something EAR Economic Assessment Report ECC Engineering and Construction Contract ERDF European Regional Development Fund ES Environmental Statement GDP Gross Domestic Product GVA Gross Value Added HA Highways Agency HE Highways England (Post April 2015) HCA Homes and Communities Agency HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle HM Her Majesty’s LCC Lancashire County Council LEP Local Enterprise Partnership LGV Light Goods Vehicle LMVR Local Model Validation Report LTB Local Transport Body NMU Non-Motorised User NPPF National Policy Planning Framework NTEM National Trip End Model OB Optimism Bias OBC Outline Business Case PA Public Accounts Broughton Bypass Full Business Case, September 2015 PCC Preston City Council POPE Post Opening Project Evaluation PQQ Pre-Qualification Questionnaire PVB Present Value of Benefits PVC Present Value of Cost QRA Quantified Risk Assessment QUADRO QUeues And Delays at ROadworks RAG Red Amber Green RSS Regional Spatial Strategy RTF Road Traffic Forecasts SRBC South Ribble Borough Council SRO Side Roads Order SU Statutory Undertaker TAG Transport Analysis Guidance TEE Transport Economic Efficiency TFL Transport For Lancashire TUBA Transport User Benefits Appraisal VOC Vehicle Operating Costs VOT Value Of Time Broughton Bypass Full Business Case, September 2015 Executive Summary This Full Business Case (FBC) has been completed on behalf of Lancashire County Council’s proposed Broughton Bypass scheme.