17

Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

Coordinating Lead Authors: W. Neil Adger (UK), Shardul Agrawala (OECD/France), M. Monirul Qader Mirza (Canada/Bangladesh)

Lead Authors: Cecilia Conde (Mexico), Karen O’Brien (Norway), Juan Pulhin (Philippines), Roger Pulwarty (USA/Trinidad and Tobago), Barry Smit (Canada), Kiyoshi Takahashi (Japan)

Contributing Authors: Brenna Enright (Canada), Samuel Fankhauser (EBRD/Switzerland), James Ford (Canada), Simone Gigli (Germany), Simon Jetté-Nantel (Canada), Richard J.T. Klein (The Netherlands/Sweden), Irene Lorenzoni (UK), David C. Major (USA), Tristan D. Pearce (Canada), Arun Shreshtha (Nepal), Priyadarshi R. Shukla (India), Joel B. Smith (USA), Tim Reeder (UK), Cynthia Rosenzweig (USA), Katharine Vincent (UK), Johanna Wandel (Canada)

Review Editors: Abdelkader Allali (Morocco), Neil A. Leary (USA), Antonio R. Magalhães (Brazil)

This chapter should be cited as: Adger, W.N., S. Agrawala, M.M.Q. Mirza, C. Conde, K. O’Brien, J. Pulhin, R. Pulwarty, B. Smit and K. Takahashi, 2007: Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 717-743. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17

Table of Contents

...... 719 17.3.3 Changes in adaptive capacity over time...... 729 Executive summary Box 17.5 Gender aspects of vulnerability and ...... 719 17.1 Concepts and methods adaptive capacity ...... 730 ..720 17.2 Assessment of current adaptation practices 17.4 Enhancing adaptation: opportunities 17.2.1 Adaptation practices ...... 720 ...... 730 and constraints 17.2.2 Examples of adaptation practices...... 721 17.4.1 International and national action for Box 17.1 Tsho Rolpa Risk Reduction Project in Nepal implementing adaptation ...... 731 as observed anticipatory adaptation...... 723 Box 17.6 Early lessons on effectiveness and legitimacy Box 17.2 Adaptation practices in the financial sector ...... 723 of National Adaptation Programmes of Action ....732 17.2.3 Assessment of adaptation costs and benefits.....724 17.4.2 Limits and barriers to adaptation ...... 733 Box 17.3 Adaptation costs and benefits for agriculture Box 17.7 Is adaptation constrained or facilitated by in the Gambia ...... 726 individual extreme events?...... 733 Box 17.8 Do voluntary or displacement migrations represent failures to adapt? ...... 736 17.3 Assessment of adaptation capacity, ...... 727 options and constraints ...... 737 17.3.1 Elements of adaptive capacity ...... 727 17.5 Conclusions Box 17.4 Adaptation costs and benefits in the water ...... 737 management sector of South Africa ...... 727 References 17.3.2 Differential adaptive capacity...... 728

718 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

Executive summary does not explicitly consider the costs of adaptation. Comprehensive multi-sectoral estimates of global costs and benefits of adaptation are currently lacking [17.2.3]. Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis (very high confidence). Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies (very high confidence). Societies have a long record of adapting to the impacts of weather and climate through a range of practices that include There are individuals and groups within all societies that have crop diversification, irrigation, water management, disaster risk insufficient capacity to adapt to climate change. For example, management, and insurance. But climate change poses novel women in subsistence farming communities are disprop- risks often outside the range of experience, such as impacts ortionately burdened with the costs of recovery and coping with related to drought, heatwaves, accelerated glacier retreat and drought in southern Africa [17.3.2]. hurricane intensity [17.2.1]. The capacity to adapt is dynamic and influenced by economic and Adaptation measures that also consider climate change are being natural resources, social networks, entitlements, institutions and implemented, on a limited basis, in both developed and developing governance, human resources, and technology [17.3.3]. Multiple countries. These measures are undertaken by a range of public and stresses related to HIV/AIDS, land degradation, trends in economic private actors through policies, investments in infrastructure and globalisation, and violent conflict affect exposure to climate risks technologies, and behavioural change. Examples of adaptations to and the capacity to adapt. For example, farming communities in observed changes in climate include partial drainage of the Tsho India are exposed to impacts of import competition and lower Rolpa glacial lake (Nepal); changes in livelihood strategies in prices in addition to climate risks; marine ecosystems over- response to permafrost melt by the Inuit in Nunavut (Canada); and exploited by globalised fisheries have been shown to be less increased use of artificial snow-making by the Alpine ski industry resilient to climate variability and change [17.3.3]. (Europe, Australia and North America) [17.2.2]. A limited but There are substantial limits and barriers to adaptation (very growing set of adaptation measures also explicitly considers high confidence). scenarios of future climate change. Examples include consideration of sea-level rise in design of infrastructure such as the High adaptive capacity does not necessarily translate into actions Confederation Bridge (Canada) and in coastal zone management that reduce vulnerability. For example, despite a high capacity to (United States and the Netherlands) [17.2.2]. adapt to heat stress through relatively inexpensive adaptations, residents in urban areas in some parts of the world, including in Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to European cities, continue to experience high levels of mortality climate change alone (very high confidence). [17.4.2]. There are significant barriers to implementing adaptation. Many actions that facilitate adaptation to climate change are These include both the inability of natural systems to adapt to the undertaken to deal with current extreme events such as heatwaves rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as technological, and cyclones. Often, planned adaptation initiatives are also not financial, cognitive and behavioural, and social and cultural undertaken as stand-alone measures, but embedded within constraints. There are also significant knowledge gaps for broader sectoral initiatives such as water resource planning, adaptation as well as impediments to flows of knowledge and coastal defence and disaster management planning [17.2.2, information relevant for adaptation decisions [17.4.1, 17.4.2]. 17.3.3]. Examples include consideration of climate change in the National Water Plan of Bangladesh and the design of flood New planning processes are attempting to overcome these protection and cyclone-resistant infrastructure in Tonga [17.2.2]. barriers at local, regional and national levels in both developing and developed countries. For example, least-developed countries Many adaptations can be implemented at low cost, but are developing National Adaptation Programmes of Action and comprehensive estimates of adaptation costs and benefits some developed countries have established national adaptation are currently lacking (high confidence). policy frameworks [17.4.1]. There is a growing number of adaptation cost and benefit-cost estimates at regional and project level for sea-level rise, agriculture, energy demand for heating and cooling, water 17.1 Concepts and methods resource management, and infrastructure. These studies identify a number of measures that can be implemented at low cost or with high benefit-cost ratios. However, some common This chapter is an assessment of knowledge and practice on adaptations may have social and environmental externalities. adaptation since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). In Adaptations to heatwaves, for example, have involved increased the TAR, adaptation and vulnerability were defined, types of demand for energy-intensive air-conditioning [17.2.3]. adaptation were identified, and the role of adaptive capacity was recognised (Smit et al., 2001). Notable developments that Limited estimates are also available for global adaptation costs occurred since the TAR include insights on: a) actual adaptations related to sea-level rise, and energy expenditures for space to observed climate changes and variability; b) planned heating and cooling. Estimates of global adaptation benefits for adaptations to climate change in infrastructure design, coastal the agricultural sector are also available, although such literature zone management, and other activities; c) the variable nature of 719 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17 vulnerability and adaptive capacity; and d) policy developments, to present-day climatic risks, which may be exacerbated by under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate future climate change. Some adaptation measures are undertaken Change (UNFCCC) and other international, national and local by individuals, while other types of adaptation are planned and initiatives, that facilitate adaptation processes and action implemented by governments on behalf of societies, sometimes programmes (Adger et al., 2005; Tompkins et al., 2005; West in anticipation of change but mostly in response to experienced and Gawith, 2005). climatic events, especially extremes (Adger, 2003; Kahn, 2003; This chapter assesses the recent literature, focussing on real- Klein and Smith, 2003). world adaptation practices and processes, determinants and The scientific research on adaptation is synthesised in this dynamics of adaptive capacity, and opportunities and constraints chapter according to: current adaptation practices to climate of adaptation. While adaptation is increasingly regarded as an variability and change; assessment of adaptation costs and inevitable part of the response to climate change, the evidence benefits; adaptive capacity and its determinants, dynamics and in this chapter suggests that climate change adaptation processes spatial variations; and the opportunities and limits of adaptation and actions face significant limitations, especially in vulnerable as a response strategy for climate change. nations and communities. In most of the cases, adaptations are being implemented to address climate conditions as part of risk management, resource planning and initiatives linked to 17.2 Assessment of current adaptation sustainable development. practices This chapter retains the definitions and concepts outlined in the TAR and examines adaptation in the context of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability to climate change refers to the 17.2.1 Adaptation practices propensity of human and ecological systems to suffer harm and their ability to respond to stresses imposed as a result of climate In this chapter, adaptation practices refer to actual change effects. The vulnerability of a society is influenced by its adjustments, or changes in decision environments, which might development path, physical exposures, the distribution of ultimately enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability to observed resources, prior stresses and social and government institutions or expected changes in climate. Thus, investment in coastal (Kelly and Adger, 2000; Jones, 2001; Yohe and Tol, 2002; Turner protection infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to storm surges et al., 2003; O’Brien et al., 2004; Smit and Wandel, 2006). All and anticipated sea-level rise is an example of actual societies have inherent abilities to deal with certain variations in adjustments. Meanwhile, the development of climate risk climate, yet adaptive capacities are unevenly distributed, both screening guidelines, which might make downstream across countries and within societies. The poor and marginalised development projects more resilient to climate risks (Burton and have historically been most at risk, and are most vulnerable to the van Aalst, 2004; ADB, 2005), is an example of changes in the impacts of climate change. Recent analyses in Africa, Asia and policy environment. Latin America, for example, show that marginalised, primary With an explicit focus on real-world behaviour, assessments of resource-dependent livelihood groups are particularly vulnerable to adaptation practices differ from the more theoretical assessments climate change impacts if their natural resource base is severely of potential responses or how such measures might reduce climate stressed and degraded by overuse or if their governance systems are damages under hypothetical scenarios of climate change. in or near a state of failure and hence not capable of responding Adaptation practices can be differentiated along several effectively (Leary et al., 2006). dimensions: by spatial scale (local, regional, national); by sector Adaptation to climate change takes place through adjustments (water resources, agriculture, tourism, public health, and so on); to reduce vulnerability or enhance resilience in response to by type of action (physical, technological, investment, regulatory, observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme market); by actor (national or local government, international weather events. Adaptation occurs in physical, ecological and donors, private sector, NGOs, local communities and individuals); human systems. It involves changes in social and environmental by climatic zone (dryland, floodplains, mountains, Arctic, and so processes, perceptions of climate risk, practices and functions to on); by baseline income/development level of the systems in reduce potential damages or to realise new opportunities. which they are implemented (least-developed countries, middle- Adaptations include anticipatory and reactive actions, private and income countries, and developed countries); or by some public initiatives, and can relate to projected changes in combination of these and other categories. temperature and current climate variations and extremes that may From a temporal perspective, adaptation to climate risks can be altered with climate change. In practice, adaptations tend to be be viewed at three levels, including responses to: current on-going processes, reflecting many factors or stresses, rather than variability (which also reflect learning from past adaptations to discrete measures to address climate change specifically. historical climates); observed medium and long-term trends in Biological adaptation is reactive (see Chapter 4), whereas climate; and anticipatory planning in response to model-based individuals and societies adapt to both observed and expected scenarios of long-term climate change. The responses across the climate through anticipatory and reactive actions. There are three levels are often intertwined, and indeed might form a well-established observations of human adaptation to climate continuum. change over the course of human history (McIntosh et al., 2000; Adapting to current climate variability is already sensible in an Mortimore and Adams, 2001). Despite evidence of success economic development context, given the direct and certain stories, many individuals and societies still remain vulnerable evidence of the adverse impacts of such phenomena (Goklany, 720 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

1995; Smit et al., 2001; Agrawala and Cane, 2002). In addition, effective adaptation, including: spatial and temporal uncertainties such adaptation measures can be synergistic with development associated with forecasts of regional climate, low level of priorities (Ribot et al., 1996), but there could also be conflicts. For awareness among decision makers of the local and regional example, activities such as shrimp farming and conversion of impacts of El Niño, limited national capacities in climate coastal mangroves, while profitable in an economic sense, can monitoring and forecasting, and lack of co-ordination in the exacerbate vulnerability to sea-level rise (Agrawala et al., 2005). formulation of responses (Glantz, 2001). Recent research also Adaptation to current climate variability can also increase highlights that technological solutions such as seasonal forecasting resilience to long-term climate change. In a number of cases, are not sufficient to address the underlying social drivers of however, anthropogenic climate change is likely to also require vulnerabilities to climate (Agrawala and Broad, 2002). forward-looking investment and planning responses that go Furthermore, social inequities in access to climate information and beyond short-term responses to current climate variability. This the lack of resources to respond can severely constrain anticipatory is true, for example, in the case of observed impacts such as adaptation (Pfaff et al., 1999). glacier retreat and permafrost melt (Schaedler, 2004; Shrestha and Table 17.1 provides an illustrative list of various types of Shrestha, 2004). Even when impacts of climate change are not yet adaptations that have been implemented by a range of actors discernible, scenarios of future impacts may already be of including individuals, communities, governments and the private sufficient concern to justify building some adaptation responses sector. Such measures involve a mix of institutional and into planning. In some cases it could be more cost-effective to behavioural responses, the use of technologies, and the design of implement adaptation measures early on, particularly for climate resilient infrastructure. They are typically undertaken in infrastructure with long economic life (Shukla et al., 2004), or if response to multiple risks, and often as part of existing processes current activities may irreversibly constrain future adaptation to or programmes, such as livelihood enhancement, water resource the impacts of climate change (Smith et al., 2005). management, and drought relief. A growing number of measures are now also being put in place 17.2.2 Examples of adaptation practices to adapt to the impacts of observed medium- to long-term trends in climate, as well as to scenarios of climate change. In particular, There is a long record of practices to adapt to the impacts of numerous measures have been put in place in the winter tourism weather as well as natural climate variability on seasonal to sector in Alpine regions of many Organisation for Economic Co- interannual time-scales – particularly to the El Niño-Southern operation and Development (OECD) countries to respond to Oscillation (ENSO). These include proactive measures such as observed impacts such as reduced snow cover and glacier retreat. crop and livelihood diversification, seasonal climate forecasting, These measures include technologies such as artificial snow-making community-based disaster risk reduction, famine early warning and associated structures such as high altitude water reservoirs, systems, insurance, water storage, supplementary irrigation and so economic and regional diversification, and the use of market-based on. They also include reactive or ex-poste adaptations, for example, instruments such as weather derivatives and insurance (e.g., Konig, emergency response, disaster recovery, and migration (Sperling 1999, for Australia; Burki et al., 2005, for Switzerland; Harrison et and Szekely, 2005). Recent reviews indicate that a ‘wait and see’ al., 2005, for Scotland; Scott et al., 2005, for North America). or reactive approach is often inefficient and could be particularly Adaptation measures are also being put in place in developing unsuccessful in addressing irreversible damages, such as species country contexts to respond to glacier retreat and associated risks, extinction or unrecoverable ecosystem damages, that may result such as the expansion of glacial lakes, which pose serious risks to from climate change (Smith, 1997; Easterling et al., 2004). livelihoods and infrastructure. The Tsho Rolpa risk-reduction Proactive practices to adapt to climate variability have advanced project in Nepal is an example of adaptation measures being significantly in recent decades with the development of operational implemented to address the creeping threat of glacial lake outburst capability to forecast several months in advance the onset of El flooding as a result of rising temperatures (see Box 17.1). Niño and La Niña events related to ENSO (Cane et al., 1986), as Recent observed weather extremes, particularly heatwaves well as improvements in climate monitoring and remote sensing to (e.g., 1995 heatwave in Chicago; the 1998 heatwave in Toronto; provide better early warnings on complex climate-related hazards and the 2003 heatwave in Europe), have also provided the (Dilley, 2000). Since the mid 1990s, a number of mechanisms have trigger for the design of hot-weather alert plans. While such also been established to facilitate proactive adaptation to seasonal measures have been initiated primarily in response to current to interannual climate variability. These include institutions that weather extremes, at times there is implicit or explicit generate and disseminate regular seasonal climate forecasts recognition that hot weather events might become more frequent (NOAA, 1999), and the regular regional and national forums and or worsen under climate change and that present adaptations implementation projects worldwide to engage with local and have often been inadequate and created new vulnerabilities national decision makers to design and implement anticipatory (Poumadère et al., 2005). Public health adaptation measures adaptation measures in agriculture, water resource management, have now been put in place that combine weather monitoring, food security, and a number of other sectors (Basher et al., 2000; early warning, and response measures in a number of places Broad and Agrawala, 2000; Meinke et al., 2001; Patt and Gwata, including metropolitan Toronto (Smoyer-Tomic and Rainham, 2002; De Mello Lemos, 2003; O’Brien and Vogel, 2003; 2001; Ligeti, 2004; Mehdi, 2006), Shanghai (Sheridan and Ziervogel, 2004). An evaluation of the responses to the 1997-98 Kalkstein, 2004) and several cities in Italy and France (ONERC, El Niño across 16 developing countries in Asia, Asia-Pacific, 2005). Weather and climate extremes have also led to a number Africa, and Latin America highlighted a number of barriers to of adaptation responses in the financial sector (see Box 17.2). 721 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17

Table 17.1. Examples of adaptation initiatives by region, undertaken relative to present climate risks, including conditions associated with climate change. REGION Climate-related Adaptation practices Country stress Reference AFRICA Egypt Sea-level rise Adoption of National Climate Change Action Plan integrating climate change concerns into El Raey (2004) national policies; adoption of Law 4/94 requiring Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for project approval and regulating setback distances for coastal infrastructure; installation of hard structures in areas vulnerable to coastal erosion. Sudan Drought Expanded use of traditional rainwater harvesting and water conserving techniques; building of Osman-Elasha et al. shelter-belts and wind-breaks to improve resilience of rangelands; monitoring of the number of (2006) grazing animals and cut trees; set-up of revolving credit funds. Botswana Drought National government programmes to re-create employment options after drought; capacity building FAO (2004) of local authorities; assistance to small subsistence farmers to increase crop production. ASIA & OCEANIA Bangladesh Sea-level rise; Consideration of climate change in the National Water Management Plan; building of flow OECD (2003a); Pouliotte salt-water regulators in coastal embankments; use of alternative crops and low-technology water filters. (2006) intrusion Philippines Drought; floods Adjustment of silvicultural treatment schedules to suit climate variations; shift to drought- Lasco et al. (2006) resistant crops; use of shallow tube wells; rotation method of irrigation during water shortage; construction of water impounding basins; construction of fire lines and controlled burning; adoption of soil and water conservation measures for upland farming. Sea-level rise; Capacity building for shoreline defence system design; introduction of participatory risk storm surges assessment; provision of grants to strengthen coastal resilience and rehabilitation of infrastructures; construction of cyclone-resistant housing units; retrofit of buildings to improved hazard standards; review of building codes; reforestation of mangroves. Drought; salt- Rainwater harvesting; leakage reduction; hydroponic farming; bank loans allowing for purchase water intrusion of rainwater storage tanks. AMERICAS Canada (1) Permafrost Changes in livelihood practices by the Inuit, including: change of hunt locations; diversification of (1) Ford and Smit (2004) melt; change in hunted species; use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) technology; encouragement of food (2) Mehdi (2006) ice cover sharing. (2) Extreme Implementation of heat health alert plans in Toronto, which include measures such as: opening of temperatures designated cooling centres at public locations; information to the public through local media; distribution of bottled water through the Red Cross to vulnerable people; operation of a heat information line to answer heat-related questions; availability of an emergency medical service vehicle with specially trained staff and medical equipment. United States Sea-level rise Land acquisition programmes taking account of climate change (e.g., New Jersey Coastal Blue Easterling et al. (2004) Acres land acquisition programme to acquire coastal lands damaged/prone to damages by storms or buffering other lands; the acquired lands are being used for recreation and conservation); establishment of a ‘rolling easement’ in Texas, an entitlement to public ownership of property that ‘rolls’ inland with the coastline as sea-level rises; other coastal policies that encourage coastal landowners to act in ways that anticipate sea-level rise. Mexico and Argentina Drought Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety (e.g., inclusion of drought-resistant plants such as Wehbe et al. (2006) agave and aloe); accumulation of commodity stocks as economic reserve; spatially separated plots for cropping and grazing to diversify exposures; diversification of income by adding livestock operations; set-up/provision of crop insurance; creation of local financial pools (as alternative to commercial crop insurance). EUROPE The Netherlands, Sea-level rise Adoption of Flooding Defence Act and Coastal Defence Policy as precautionary approaches Government of the allowing for the incorporation of emerging trends in climate; building of a storm surge barrier Netherlands (1997 and taking a 50 cm sea-level rise into account; use of sand supplements added to coastal areas; 2005) improved management of water levels through dredging, widening of river banks, allowing rivers to expand into side channels and wetland areas; deployment of water storage and retention areas; conduct of regular (every 5 years) reviews of safety characteristics of all protecting infrastructure (dykes, etc.); preparation of risk assessments of flooding and coastal damage influencing spatial planning and engineering projects in the coastal zone, identifying areas for potential (land inward) reinforcement of dunes. Austria, France, Switzerland Upward shift of Artificial snow-making; grooming of ski slopes; moving ski areas to higher altitudes and glaciers; Austrian Federal Govt. natural snow- use of white plastic sheets as protection against glacier melt; diversification of tourism revenues (2006); Direction du reliability line; (e.g., all-year tourism). Tourisme (2002); Swiss glacier melt Confederation (2005) Permafrost melt; Erection of protection dams in Pontresina (Switzerland) against avalanches and increased debris flows magnitude of potential debris flows stemming from permafrost thawing. United Kingdom Floods; sea-level Coastal realignment under the Essex Wildlife Trust, converting over 84 ha of arable farmland into salt Defra (2006) rise marsh and grassland to provide sustainable sea defences; maintenance and operation of the Thames Barrier through the Thames Estuary 2100 project that addresses flooding linked to the impacts of climate change; provision of guidance to policy makers, chief executives, and parliament on climate change and the insurance sector (developed by the Association of British Insurers).

722 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

Box 17.1. Tsho Rolpa Risk Reduction Project in Nepal as observed anticipatory adaptation

The Tsho Rolpa is a glacial lake located at an altitude of about 4,580 m in Nepal. Glacier retreat and ice melt as a result of warmer temperature increased the size of the Tsho Rolpa from 0.23 km² in 1957/58 to 1.65 km² in 1997 (Figure 17.1). The 90- 100 million m³ of water, which the lake contained by this time, were only held by a moraine dam – a hazard that called for urgent action to reduce the risk of a catastrophic glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).

If the dam were breached, one third or more of the water could flood downstream. Among other considerations, this posed a major risk to the Khimti hydropower plant, which was under construction downstream. These concerns spurred the Government of Nepal, with the support of international donors, to initiate a project in 1998 to lower the level of the lake through drainage. An expert group recommended that, to reduce the risk of a GLOF, the lake should be lowered three metres by cutting a channel in the moraine. A gate was constructed to allow for controlled release of water. Meanwhile, an early warning system was established in 19 villages downstream in case a Tsho Rolpa GLOF should occur despite these efforts. Local villagers were actively involved in the design of the system, and drills are carried out periodically. In 2002, the four- year construction project was completed at a cost of US$3.2 million. Clearly, reducing GLOF risks involves substantial costs and is time-consuming as complete prevention of a GLOF would require further drainage to lower the lake level.

Sources: Mool et al. (2001); OECD (2003b); Shrestha and Figure 17.1. Tsho Rolpa Risk Reduction Project in Nepal as Shrestha (2004). observed anticipatory adaptation.

Box 17.2. Adaptation practices in the financial sector

Financial mechanisms can contribute to climate change adaptation. The insurance sector – especially property, health and crop insurance – can efficiently spread risks and reduce the financial hardships linked to extreme events. Financial markets can internalise information on climate risks and help transfer adaptation and risk-reduction incentives to communities and individuals (ABI, 2004), while capital markets and transfer mechanisms can alleviate financial constraints to the implementation of adaptation measures. To date, most adaptation practices have been observed in the insurance sector. As a result of climate change, demand for insurance products is expected to increase, while climate change impacts could also reduce insurability and threaten insurance schemes (ABI, 2004; Dlugolecki and Lafeld, 2005; Mills et al., 2005; Valverde and Andrews, 2006). While these market signals can play a role in transferring adaptation incentives to individuals, reduced insurance coverage can, at the same time, impose significant economic and social costs. To increase their capacity in facing climate variability and change, insurers have developed more comprehensive or accessible information tools, e.g., risk assessment tools in the Czech Republic, France, Germany and the United Kingdom (CEA, 2006). They have also fostered risk prevention through: (i) implementing and strengthening building standards, (ii) planning risk prevention measures and developing best practices, and (iii) raising awareness of policyholders and public authorities (ABI, 2004; CEA, 2006; Mills and Lecomte, 2006). In the longer term, climate change may also induce insurers to adopt forward-looking pricing methods in order to maintain insurability (ABI, 2004; Loster, 2005).

723 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17

There are now also examples of adaptation measures being account (Moser, 2005; Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala, 2006). In put in place that take into account scenarios of future climate the Netherlands, for example, the Technical Advisory change and associated impacts. This is particularly the case for Committee on Water Defence recommended the design of new long-lived infrastructure which may be exposed to climate engineering works with a long lifetime, such as storm surge change impacts over its lifespan or, in cases, where business-as- barriers and dams, to take a 50 cm sea-level rise into account usual activities would irreversibly constrain future adaptation to (Government of the Netherlands, 1997). Climate change is the impacts of climate change. Early examples where climate explicitly taken into consideration in the National Water change scenarios have already been incorporated in Management Plan (NWMP) of Bangladesh, which was set up infrastructure design include the Confederation Bridge in to guide the implementation of the National Water Policy. It Canada and the Deer Island sewage treatment plant in Boston recognises climate change as a determining factor for future harbour in the United States. The Confederation Bridge is a 13 water supply and demand, as well as coastal erosion due to sea- km bridge between Prince Edward Island and the mainland. The level rise and increased tidal range (OECD, 2003a). bridge provides a navigation channel for ocean-going vessels There are now also examples of consideration of climate with vertical clearance of about 50 m (McKenzie and Parlee, change as part of comprehensive risk management strategies at 2003). Sea-level rise was recognised as a principal concern the city, regional and national level. France, Finland and the during the design process and the bridge was built one metre United Kingdom have developed national strategies and higher than currently required to accommodate sea-level rise frameworks to adapt to climate change (MMM, 2005; ONERC, over its hundred-year lifespan (Lee, 2000). In the case of the 2005; DEFRA, 2006). At the city level, meanwhile, climate Deer Island sewage facility, the design called for raw sewage change scenarios are being considered by New York City as part collected from communities onshore to be pumped under Boston of the review of its water supply system. Changes in temperature harbour and then up to the treatment plant on Deer Island. After and precipitation, sea-level rise, and extreme events have been waste treatment, the effluent would be discharged into the identified as important parameters for water supply impacts and harbour through a downhill pipe. Design engineers were adaptation in the New York region (Rosenzweig and Solecki, concerned that sea-level rise would necessitate the construction 2001). A nine-step adaptation assessment procedure has now of a protective wall around the plant, which would then require been developed (Rosenzweig et al., 2007). A key feature of these installation of expensive pumping equipment to transport the procedures is explicit consideration of several climate variables, effluent over the wall (Easterling et al., 2004). To avoid such a uncertainties associated with climate change projections, and future cost the designers decided to keep the treatment plant at time horizons for different adaptation responses. Adaptations a higher elevation, and the facility was completed in 1998. Other can be divided into managerial, infrastructure, and policy examples where ongoing planning is considering scenarios of categories and assessed in terms of time frame (immediate, climate change in project design are the Konkan Railway in interim, long-term) and in terms of the capital cycle for different western India (Shukla et al., 2004); a coastal highway in types of infrastructure. As an example of adaptation measures Micronesia (ADB, 2005); the Copenhagen Metro in Denmark that have been examined, a managerial adaptation that can be (Fenger, 2000); and the Thames Barrier in the United Kingdom implemented quickly is a tightening of water regulations in the (Dawson et al., 2005; Hall et al., 2006). event of more frequent droughts. Also under examination are A majority of examples of infrastructure-related adaptation longer-term infrastructure adaptations such as the construction of measures relate primarily to the implications of sea-level rise. flood-walls around low-lying wastewater treatment plants to In this context, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway is an exception. The protect against sea-level rise and higher storm surges. railway crosses the Tibetan Plateau with about a thousand kilometres of the railway at least 13,000 feet (4,000 m) above 17.2.3 Assessment of adaptation costs and benefits sea level. Five hundred kilometres of the railway rests on permafrost, with roughly half of it ‘high temperature permafrost’ The literature on adaptation costs and benefits remains quite which is only 1 to 2°C below freezing. The railway line would limited and fragmented in terms of sectoral and regional affect the permafrost layer, which will also be impacted by coverage. Adaptation costs are usually expressed in monetary thawing as a result of rising temperatures, thus in turn affecting terms, while benefits are typically quantified in terms of avoided the stability of the railway line. To reduce these risks, design climate impacts, and expressed in monetary as well as non- engineers have put in place a combination of insulation and monetary terms (e.g., changes in yield, welfare, population cooling systems to minimise the amount of heat absorbed by the exposed to risk). There is a small methodological literature on permafrost (Brown, 2005). the assessment of costs and benefits in the context of climate In addition to specific infrastructure projects, there are now change adaptation (Fankhauser, 1996; Smith, 1997; Fankhauser also examples where climate change scenarios are being et al., 1998; Callaway, 2004; Toman, 2006). In addition there considered in more comprehensive risk management policies are a number of case studies that look at adaptation options for and plans. Efforts are underway to integrate adaptation to current particular sectors (e.g., Shaw et al., 2000, for sea-level rise); or and future climate within the Environmental Impact Assessment particular countries (e.g., Smith et al., 1998, for Bangladesh; (EIA) procedures of several countries in the Caribbean (Vergara, World Bank, 2000, for Fiji and Kiribati; Dore and Burton, 2001, 2006), as well as Canada (Lee, 2000). A number of other policy for Canada). initiatives have also been put in place within OECD countries Much of the literature on adaptation costs and benefits is that take future climate change (particularly sea-level rise) into focused on sea-level rise (e.g., Fankhauser, 1995a; Yohe and 724 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

Schlesinger, 1998; Nicholls and Tol, 2006) and agriculture (e.g., structural) endowment values which are highly uncertain at more Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994; Adams et al., 2003; Reilly et al., aggregate levels. A global assessment by Darwin and Tol (2001) 2003). Adaptation costs and benefits have also been assessed in showed that uncertainties surrounding endowment values could a more limited manner for energy demand (e.g., Morrison and lead to a 17% difference in coastal protection, a 36% difference Mendelsohn, 1999; Sailor and Pavlova, 2003; Mansur et al., in amount of land protected, and a 36% difference in direct cost 2005), water resource management (e.g., Kirshen et al., 2004), globally. A further factor increasing uncertainty in costs is the and transportation infrastructure (e.g., Dore and Burton, 2001). social and political acceptability of adaptation options. Tol et al. In terms of regional coverage, there has been a focus on the (2003) show that the benefits of adaptation options for United States and other OECD countries (e.g., Fankhauser, ameliorating increased river flood risk in the Netherlands could 1995a; Yohe et al., 1996; Mansur et al., 2005; Franco and be up to US$20 million /yr in 2050. But they conclude that Sanstad, 2006), although there is now a growing literature for implementation of these options requires significant institutional developing countries also (e.g., Butt et al., 2005; Callaway et and political reform, representing a significant barrier to al., 2006; Nicholls and Tol, 2006). implanting least-cost solutions. Adaptation studies looking at the agricultural sector 17.2.3.1 Sectoral and regional estimates considered autonomous farm level adaptation and many also The literature on costs and benefits of adaptation to sea-level looked at adaptation effects through market and international rise is relatively extensive. Fankhauser (1995a) used trade (Darwin et al., 1995; Winters et al., 1998; Yates and Street, comparative static optimisation to examine the trade-offs 1998; Adams et al., 2003; Butt et al., 2005). The literature between investment in coastal protection and the value of land mainly reports on adaptation benefits, usually expressed in terms loss from sea-level rise. The resulting optimal levels of coastal of increases in yield or welfare, or decreases in the number of protection were shown to significantly reduce the total costs of people at risk of hunger. Adaptation costs, meanwhile, were sea-level rise across OECD countries. The results also generally not considered in early studies (Rosenzweig and Parry, highlighted that the optimal level of coastal protection would 1994; Yates and Street, 1998), but are usually included in recent vary considerably both within and across regions, based on the studies (Mizina et al., 1999; Adams et al., 2003; Reilly et al., value of land at risk. Fankhauser (1995a) concluded that almost 2003; Njie et al., 2006). Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) and 100% of coastal cities and harbours in OECD countries should Darwin et al. (1995) estimated residual climate change impacts be protected, while the optimal protection for beaches and open to be minimal at the global level, mainly due to the significant coasts would vary between 50 and 80%. Results of Yohe and benefits from adaptation. However, large inter and intra-regional Schlesinger (1998) show that total (adjustment and residual land variations were reported. In particular, for many countries loss) costs of sea-level rise could be reduced by around 20 to located in tropical regions, the potential benefits of low-cost 50% for the U.S. coastline if the real estate market prices adaptation measures such as changes in planting dates, crop adjusted efficiently as land is submerged. Nicholls and Tol mixes, and cultivars are not expected to be sufficient to offset the (2006) estimate optimal levels of coastal protection under IPCC significant climate change damages (Rosenzweig and Parry, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES; Nakićenović and 1994; Butt et al., 2005). Swart, 2000) A1FI, A2, B1, and B2 scenarios. They conclude Table 17.2. Sea-level rise protection costs in 2080 as a percentage of that, with the exception of certain Pacific Small Island States, GDP for most-affected countries under the four SRES world scenarios coastal protection investments were a very small percentage of (A1FI, A2, B1, B2) gross domestic product (GDP) for the 15 most-affected countries Protection costs (%GDP) for the 2080s by 2080 (Table 17.2). SRES scenarios A1FI A2 B1 B2 Ng and Mendelsohn (2005) use a dynamic framework to Micronesia optimise for coastal protection, with a decadal reassessment of 7.4 10.0 5.0 13.5 the protection required. It was estimated that, over the period Palau 6.1 7.0 3.9 9.1 2000 to 2100, the present value of coastal protection costs for Tuvalu 1.4 1.7 0.9 2.2 Singapore would be between US$1 and 3.08 million (a very Marshall Islands 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.7 small share of GDP), for a 0.49 and 0.86 m sea-level rise. A Mozambique 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 limitation of these studies is that they only look at gradual sea- French Polynesia 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 level rise and do not generally consider issues such as the Guinea-Bissau 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.6 implications of storm surges on optimal coastal protection. In a Nauru 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 study of the Boston metropolitan area Kirshen et al. (2004) Guyana 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 include the implications of storm surges on sea-level rise New Caledonia 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 damages and optimal levels of coastal protection under various Papua New Guinea 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 development and sea-level rise scenarios. Kirshen et al. (2004) conclude that under 60 cm sea-level rise ‘floodproofing’ Kiribati 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 measures (such as elevation of living spaces) were superior to Maldives 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 coastal protection measures (such as seawalls, bulkheads, and Vietnam 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 revetments). Meanwhile, coastal protection was found to be Cambodia 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 optimal under one-metre sea-level rise. Another limitation of sea-level rise costing studies is their sensitivity to (land and Source: Adapted from Nicholls and Tol (2006). 725 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17

More extensive adaptation measures have been evaluated in that changes in building stocks (particularly increases in cooling some developing countries (see, for example, Box 17.3). For capacity) contributed to the increase in energy expenditure by the 2030 horizon in Mali, Butt et al., (2005) estimate that US$2.98 billion to US$11.5 billion. Mansur et al. (2005), adaptation through trade, changes in crop mix, and the meanwhile, estimate increased energy expenditures for the development and adoption of heat-resistant cultivars could United States ranging from US$4 to 9 billion for 2050, and offset 90 to 107% of welfare losses induced by climate change between US$16 and 39.8 billion for 2100. impacts on agriculture. Besides sea-level rise, agriculture, and energy demand, there In addition to their effect on average yield, adaptation are a few studies related to adaptation costs and benefits in measures can also smooth out fluctuations in yields (and water resource management (see Box 17.4) and transportation consequently social welfare) as a result of climate variability. infrastructure. Kirshen et al. (2004) assessed the reliability of Adams et al. (2003) found that adaptation welfare benefits for water supply in the Boston metropolitan region under climate the American economy increased from US$3.29 billion (2000 change scenarios. Even under a stable climate, the authors values) to US$4.70 billion (2000 values) when their effect on project the reliability of water supply to be 93% by 2100 on yield variability is included. In the case of Mali, Butt et al. account of the expected growth in water demand. Factoring in (2005) show that adaptation measures could reduce the climate change reduces the reliability of water supply to 82%. variability in welfare by up to 84%. Demand side management measures could increase the A particular limitation of adaptation studies in the reliability slightly (to 83%), while connecting the local systems agricultural sector stems from the diversity of climate change to the main state water system would increase reliability to impacts and adaptation options but also from the complexity of 97%. The study, however, does not assess the costs of such the adaptation process. Many studies make the unrealistic adaptation measures. assumption of perfect adaptation by individual farmers. Even if Dore and Burton (2001) estimate the costs of adaptation to agricultural regions can adapt fully through technologies and climate change for social infrastructure in Canada, more management practices, there are likely to be costs of adaptation precisely for the roads network (roads, bridges and storm water in the process of adjusting to a new climate regime. Recent management systems) as well as for water utilities (drinking studies for U.S. agriculture found that frictions in the adaptation and waste water treatment plants). In this case, the additional process could reduce the adaptation potential (Schneider et al., costs for maintaining the integrity of the portfolio of social 2000a; Easterling et al., 2003; Kelly et al., 2005). assets under climate change are identified as the costs of With regard to adaptation costs and benefits in the energy adaptation. In the water sector, potential adaptation strategies sector, there is some literature – almost entirely on the United such as building new treatment plants, improving efficiency of States – on changes in energy expenditures for cooling and actual plants or increasing retention tanks were considered and heating as a result of climate change. Most studies show that results indicated that adaptation costs for Canadian cities could increased energy expenditure on cooling will more than offset be as high as Canadian $9,400 million for a city like Toronto if any benefits from reduced heating (e.g., Smith and Tirpak, extreme events are considered. For the transportation sector, 1989; Nordhaus, 1991; Cline, 1992; Morrison and Mendelsohn, Dore and Burton (2001) also estimate that replacing all ice 1999; Mendelsohn, 2003; Sailor and Pavlova, 2003; Mansur et roads in Canada would cost around Canadian $908 million. al., 2005). Morrison and Mendelsohn (1999), meanwhile, However, the study also points out that retreat of permafrost estimate net adaptation costs (as a result of increased cooling would reduce road building costs.Also, costs of winter control, and reduced heating) for the U.S. economy ranging from such as snow clearance, sanding, and salting, are generally US$1.93 billion to 12.79 billion by 2060. They also estimated expected to decrease as temperature rises.

Box 17.3. Adaptation costs and benefits for agriculture in the Gambia

Njie et al. (2006) investigated climate change impacts and adaptation costs and benefits for cereal production in the Gambia. Under the SRES A2 scenario the study estimated that for the period 2010 to 2039, millet yield would increase by 2 to 13%. For the period 2070 to 2099 the outcome is highly dependent on projected changes in precipitation as it could range from a 43% increase to a 78% decrease in millet yield. Adaptation measures such as the adoption of improved cultivars, irrigation, and improved crop fertilisation were assessed in a framework accounting for projections of population growth, water demand and availability. These measures were estimated to increase millet yield by 13 to 43%, while reducing interannual variability by 84 to 200% in the near term (2010 to 2039). However, net adaptation benefits (value of higher production minus cost of implementation) were not necessarily positive for all adaptation strategies. In the near term, net adaptation benefits were estimated at US$22.3 to 31.5 million for crop fertilisation and US$81.1 to 88.0 million for irrigation. The authors conclude that irrigation is more effective to improve crop productivity under climate change conditions, but the adoption of improved crop fertilisation is more cost efficient. Meanwhile, much uncertainty remains regarding the cost of developing improved cultivars. In the distant future, potential precipitation decrease would make irrigation an imperative measure.

726 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

17.2.3.2 Global estimates 17.3 Assessment of adaptation capacity, Some adaptation costs are implicitly included in estimates options and constraints of global impacts of climate change. Tol et al. (1998) estimate that between 7% and 25% of total climate damage costs included in earlier studies such as Cline (1992), Fankhauser 17.3.1 Elements of adaptive capacity (1995b) and Tol (1995) could be classified as adaptation costs. In addition, recent studies, including Nordhaus and Boyer Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to (2000), Mendelsohn et al. (2000) and Tol (2002), incorporate respond successfully to climate variability and change, and with greater detail the effects of adaptation on the global includes adjustments in both behaviour and in resources and estimation of climate change impacts. In these models, technologies. The presence of adaptive capacity has been shown adaptation costs and benefits are usually embedded within to be a necessary condition for the design and implementation of climate damage functions which are often extrapolated from a effective adaptation strategies so as to reduce the likelihood and limited number of regional studies. Furthermore, the source the magnitude of harmful outcomes resulting from climate studies which form the basis for the climate damage functions change (Brooks and Adger, 2005). Adaptive capacity also do not always reflect the most recent findings.As a result, these enables sectors and institutions to take advantage of studies offer a global and integrated perspective but are based opportunities or benefits from climate change, such as a longer on coarsely defined climate change and adaptation impacts and growing season or increased potential for tourism. only provide speculative estimates of adaptation costs and Much of the current understanding of adaptive capacity benefits. comes from vulnerability assessments. Even if vulnerability Mendelsohn et al. (2000) estimate that global energy costs indices do not explicitly include determinants of adaptive related to heating and cooling would increase by US$2 billion capacity, the indicators selected often provide important insights to US$10 billion (1990 values) for a 2°C increase in on the factors, processes and structures that promote or constrain temperature by 2100 and by US$51 billion to US$89 billion adaptive capacity (Eriksen and Kelly, 2007). One clear result (1990 values) for a 3.5°C increase. For a 1°C increase, Tol from research on vulnerability and adaptive capacity is that some (2002) estimates global benefits from reduced heating at around dimensions of adaptive capacity are generic, while others are US$120 billion, and global costs resulting from increased specific to particular climate change impacts. Generic indicators cooling at around US$75 billion. The same study estimates the include factors such as education, income and health. Indicators global protection costs at US$1,055 billion for a one-metre sea- specific to a particular impact, such as drought or floods, may level rise. There are preliminary estimates of the global costs of relate to institutions, knowledge and technology (Yohe and Tol, ‘climate proofing’ development (World Bank, 2006), but the 2002; Downing, 2003; Brooks et al., 2005; Tol and Yohe, 2007). current literature does not provide comprehensive multi- Technology can potentially play an important role in adapting sectoral estimates of global adaptation costs and benefits. The to climate change. Efficient cooling systems, improved seeds, broader macroeconomic and economy-wide implications of desalination technologies, and other engineering solutions adaptations on economic growth and employment remain represent some of the options that can lead to improved largely unknown (Aaheim and Schjolden, 2004). outcomes and increased coping under conditions of climate change. In public health, for example, there have been successful applications of seasonal forecasting and other technologies to

Box 17.4. Adaptation costs and benefits in the water management sector of South Africa

Callaway et al. (2006) provide estimates of water management adaptation costs and benefits in a case study of the Berg River basin in South Africa. Adaptation measures investigated include the establishment of an efficient water market and an increase in water storage capacity through the construction of a dam. Using a programming model which linked modules of urban and farm water demand to a hydrology module, the welfare related to water use (value for urban and farm use minus storage and transport cost) were estimated for the SRES B2 climate change scenario and the assumption of a 3% increase in urban water demand. Under these conditions and the current water allocation system, the discounted impact of climate change over the next 30 years was estimated to vary between 13.5 and 27.7 billion Rand. The net welfare benefits of adapting water storage capacity under current allocation rights were estimated at about 0.2 billion Rand, while adding water storage capacity in the presence of efficient water markets would yield adaptation benefits between 5.8 and 7 billion Rand. The authors also show that, under efficient water markets, the costs of not adapting to climate change that does occur outweigh the costs of adapting to climate change that does not occur.

N.B.: All monetary estimates are expressed in present values for constant Rand for the year 2000, discounting over 30 years at a real discount rate of 6%.

727 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17

17.3.2 Differential adaptive capacity adapt health provisions to anticipated extreme events (Ebi et al., 2005). Often, technological adaptations and innovations are developed through research programmes undertaken by The capacity to adapt to climate change is unequal across and governments and by the private sector (Smit and Skinner, 2002). within societies. There are individuals and groups within all Innovation, which refers to the development of new strategies or societies that have insufficient capacity to adapt to climate technologies, or the revival of old ones in response to new change. As described above, there has been a convergence of conditions (Bass, 2005), is an important aspect of adaptation, findings in the literature showing that human and social capital particularly under uncertain future climate conditions. Although are key determinants of adaptive capacity at all scales, and that technological capacity can be considered a key aspect of they are as important as levels of income and technological adaptive capacity, many technological responses to climate capacity. However, most of this literature also argues that there change are closely associated with a specific type of impact, is limited usefulness in looking at only one level or scale, and such as higher temperatures or decreased rainfall. that exploring the regional and local context for adaptive New studies carried out since the TAR show that adaptive capacity can provide insights into both constraints and capacity is influenced not only by economic development and opportunities. technology, but also by social factors such as human capital and governance structures (Klein and Smith, 2003; Brooks and Adger 17.3.2.1 Adaptive capacity is uneven across societies 2005; Næss et al., 2005; Tompkins, 2005; Berkhout et al., 2006; There is some evidence that national-level indicators of Eriksen and Kelly, 2007). Furthermore, recent analysis argues vulnerability and adaptive capacity are used by climate change that adaptive capacity is not a concern unique to regions with low negotiators, practitioners, and decision makers in determining levels of economic activity. Although economic development policies and allocating priorities for funding and interventions may provide greater access to technology and resources to invest (Eriksen and Kelly, 2007). However, few studies have been in adaptation, high income per capita is considered neither a globally comprehensive, and the literature lacks consensus on necessary nor a sufficient indicator of the capacity to adapt to the usefulness of indicators of generic adaptive capacity and climate change (Moss et al., 2001). Tol and Yohe (2007) show the robustness of the results (Downing et al., 2001; Moss et that some elements of adaptive capacity are not substitutable: an al., 2001; Yohe and Tol, 2002; Brooks et al., 2005; Haddad, economy will be as vulnerable as the ‘weakest link’ in its 2005). A comparison of results across five vulnerability resources and adaptive capacity (for example with respect to assessments shows that the 20 countries ranked ‘most natural disasters). Within both developed and developing vulnerable’show little consistency across studies (Eriksen and countries, some regions, localities, or social groups have a lower Kelly, 2007). Haddad (2005) has shown empirically that the adaptive capacity (O’Brien et al., 2006). ranking of adaptive capacity of nations is significantly altered There are many examples where social capital, social when national aspirations are made explicit. He demonstrates networks, values, perceptions, customs, traditions and levels of that different aspirations (e.g., seeking to maximise the welfare cognition affect the capability of communities to adapt to risks of citizens, to maintain control of citizens, or to reduce the related to climate change. Communities in Samoa in the south vulnerability of the most vulnerable groups) lead to different Pacific, for example, rely on informal non-monetary weightings of the elements of adaptive capacity, and hence to arrangements and social networks to cope with storm damage, different rankings of the actual capacity of countries to adapt. along with livelihood diversification and financial remittances It has been argued that national indicators fail to capture many through extended family networks (Adger, 2001; Barnett, 2001; of the processes and contextual factors that influence adaptive Sutherland et al., 2005). Similarly, strong local and international capacity, and thus provide little insight on adaptive capacity at support networks enable communities in the Cayman Islands to the level where most adaptations will take place (Eriksen and recover from and prepare for tropical storms (Tompkins, 2005). Kelly, 2007). Community organisation is an important factor in adaptive The specific determinants of adaptive capacity at the strategies to build resilience among hillside communities in national level thus represent an area of contested knowledge. Bolivia (Robledo et al., 2004). Recovery from hazards in Cuba Some studies relate adaptive capacity to levels of national is helped by a sense of communal responsibility (Sygna, 2005). development, including political stability, economic well- Food-sharing expectations and networks in Nunavut, Canada, being, human and social capital and institutions (AfDB et al., allow community members access to so-called country food at 2003). National-level adaptive capacity has also been times when conditions make it unavailable to some (Ford et al., represented by proxy indicators for economic capacity, human 2006). The role of food sharing as a part of a community’s and civic resources and environmental capacity (Moss et al., capacity to adapt to risks in resource provisioning is also evident 2001). Alberini et al. (2006) use expert judgement based on a among native Alaskans (Magdanz et al., 2002). Adaptive conjoint choice survey of climate and health experts to migration options in the 1930s USA Dust Bowl were greatly examine the most important attributes of adaptive capacity and influenced by the access households had to economic, social and find that per capita income, inequality in the distribution of cultural capital (McLeman and Smit, 2006). The cultural change income, universal health care coverage, and high access to and increased individualism associated with economic growth information are the most important attributes allowing a in Small Island Developing States has eroded the sharing of risk country to adapt to health-related risks. Coefficients on these within extended families, thereby reducing the contribution of rankings were used to construct an index of countries with this social factor to adaptive capacity (Pelling and Uitto, 2001). highest to lowest adaptive capacity. 728 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

17.3.2.2 Adaptive capacity is uneven within nations due to multiple stresses The capacity to adapt to climate change is not evenly distributed within nations. Adaptive capacity is highly differentiated within countries, because multiple processes of change interact to influence vulnerability and shape outcomes from climate change (Leichenko and O’Brien, 2002; Dow et al., 2006; Smit and Wandel, 2006; Ziervogel et al., 2006). In India, for example, both climate change and market liberalisation for agricultural commodities are changing the context for agricultural production. Some farmers may be able to adapt to these changing conditions, including discrete events such as drought and rapid changes in commodity prices, while other farmers may experience predominately negative outcomes. Mapping vulnerability of the agricultural sector to both climate change and trade liberalisation at the district level in India, O’Brien et al. (2004) considered adaptive capacity as a key factor that influences outcomes. A combination of biophysical, socio-economic and technological conditions were considered to influence the capacity to adapt to changing environmental and economic conditions. The biophysical factors included soil quality and depth, and groundwater availability, whereas socio-economic factors consisted of measures of literacy, gender equity, and the percentage of farmers and agricultural wage labourers in a district. Technological factors were captured by the availability of Figure 17.2. Districts in India that rank highest in terms of vulnerability irrigation and the quality of infrastructure. Together, these factors to: (a) climate change and (b) import competition associated with economic globalisation, are considered to be double exposed provide an indication of which districts are most and least able to (depicted with hatching). Adapted from O’Brien et al. (2004). adapt to drier conditions and variability in the Indian monsoons, as well as to respond to import competition resulting from liberalised agricultural trade. The results of this vulnerability mapping show the districts that have ‘double exposure’ to both shown that successful community-based resource management, processes. It is notable that districts located along the Indo- for example, can potentially enhance the resilience of Gangetic Plains are less vulnerable to both processes, relative to communities as well as maintain ecosystem services and the interior parts of the country (see Figure 17.2). ecosystem resilience (Tompkins and Adger, 2004; Manuta and Lebel, 2005; Owuor et al., 2005; Ford et al., 2006) and that this 17.3.2.3 Social and economic processes determine the constitutes a major priority for the management of ecosystems distribution of adaptive capacity under stress (such as coral reefs) (Hughes et al., 2003, 2005). A significant body of new research focuses on specific Much new research emphasises that adaptive capacity is also contextual factors that shape vulnerability and adaptive capacity, highly heterogeneous within a society or locality, and for human influencing how they may evolve over time. These place-based populations it is differentiated by age, class, gender, health and studies provide insights on the conditions that constrain or social status. Ziervogel et al. (2006) undertook a comparative enhance adaptive capacity at the continental, regional or local study between households and communities in South Africa, scales (Leichenko and O’Brien, 2002; Allison et al., 2005; Sudan, Nigeria and Mexico and showed how vulnerability to food Schröter et al., 2005; Belliveau et al., 2006). These studies differ insecurity is common across the world in semi-arid areas where from the regional and global indicator studies assessed above both marginal groups rely on rain-fed agriculture. Across the case in approach and methods, yet come to complementary conclusions studies food insecurity was not determined solely or primarily by on the state and distribution of adaptive capacity. climate, but rather by a range of social, economic, and political The lessons from studies of local-level adaptive capacity are factors linked to physical risks. Box 17.5 describes how adaptive context-specific, but the weight of studies establishes broad capacity and vulnerability to climate change impacts are different lessons on adaptive capacity of individuals and communities. The for men and women, with gender-related vulnerability particularly nature of the relationships between community members is apparent in resource-dependent societies and in the impacts of critical, as is access to and participation in decision-making extreme weather-related events (see also Box 8.2). processes. In areas such as coastal zone management, the expansion of social networks has been noted as an important 17.3.3 Changes in adaptive capacity over time element in developing more robust management institutions (Tompkins et al., 2002). Local groups and individuals often feel Adaptive capacity at any one scale may be facilitated or their powerlessness in many ways, although none so much as in constrained by factors outside the system in question. At the the lack of access to decision makers. A series of studies has local scale, such constraints may take the form of regulations or 729 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17

Box 17.5. Gender aspects of vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Empirical research has shown that entitlements to elements of adaptive capacity are socially differentiated along the lines of age, ethnicity, class, religion and gender (Cutter, 1995; Denton, 2002; Enarson, 2002). Climate change therefore has gender-specific implications in terms of both vulnerability and adaptive capacity (Dankelman, 2002). There are structural differences between men and women through, for example, gender-specific roles in society, work and domestic life. These differences affect the vulnerability and capacity of women and men to adapt to climate change. In the developing world in particular, women are disproportionately involved in natural resource-dependent activities, such as agriculture (Davison, 1988), compared to salaried occupations. As resource-dependent activities are directly dependent on climatic conditions, changes in climate variability projected for future climates are likely to affect women through a variety of mechanisms: directly through water availability, vegetation and fuelwood availability and through health issues relating to vulnerable populations (especially dependent children and elderly). Most fundamentally, the vulnerability of women in agricultural economies is affected by their relative insecurity of access and rights over resources and sources of wealth such as agricultural land. It is well established that women are disadvantaged in terms of property rights and security of tenure, though the mechanisms and exact form of the insecurity are contested (Agarwal, 2003; Jackson, 2003). This insecurity can have implications both for their vulnerability in a changing climate, and also their capacity to adapt productive livelihoods to a changing climate.

There is a body of research that argues that women are more vulnerable than men to weather-related disasters. The impacts of past weather-related hazards have been disaggregated to determine the differential effects on women and men. Such studies have been done, for example, for Hurricane Mitch in 1998 (Bradshaw, 2004) and for natural disasters more generally (Fordham, 2003). These differential impacts include numbers of deaths, and well-being in the post-event recovery period. The disproportionate amount of the burden endured by women during rehabilitation has been related to their roles in the reproductive sphere (Nelson et al., 2002). Children and elderly persons tend to be based in and around the home and so are often more likely to be affected by flooding events with speedy onset. Women are usually responsible for the additional care burden during the period of rehabilitation, whilst men generally return to their pre-disaster productive roles outside the home. Fordham (2003) has argued that the key factors that contribute to the differential vulnerability of women in the context of natural hazards in South Asia include: high levels of illiteracy, minimum mobility and work opportunities outside the home, and issues around ownership of resources such as land.

The role of gender in influencing adaptive capacity and adaptation is thus an important consideration for the development of interventions to enhance adaptive capacity and to facilitate adaptation. Gender differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity reflect wider patterns of structural gender inequality. One lesson that can be drawn from the gender and development literature is that climate interventions that ignore gender concerns reinforce the differential gender dimensions of vulnerability (Denton, 2004). It has also become clear that a shift in policy focus away from reactive disaster management to more proactive capacity building can reduce gender inequality (Mirza, 2003).

economic policies determined at the regional or national level 2006). Exploitation of sea urchins and herbivorous reef fish that limit the freedom of individuals and communities to act, or species in the past three decades in particular have been shown that make certain potential adaptation strategies unviable. There to make reefs more vulnerable to recurrent disturbances such as is a growing recognition that vulnerability and the capacity to hurricanes and to coral bleaching and mortality due to increased adapt to climate change are influenced by multiple processes of sea surface temperatures (Hughes et al., 2003; Berkes et al., change (O’Brien and Leichenko, 2000; Turner et al., 2003; 2006). Luers, 2005). Violent conflict and the spread of infectious In the Canadian Arctic, experienced Inuit hunters, dealing diseases, for example, have been shown to erode adaptive with changing ice and wildlife conditions, adapt by drawing on capacity (Woodward, 2002; Barnett, 2006). Social trends such as traditional knowledge to alter the timing and location of urbanisation or economic consequences of trade liberalisation harvesting, and ensure personal survival (Berkes and Jolly, are likely to have both positive and negative consequences for 2001). Young Inuit, however, do not have the same adaptive the overall adaptive capacity of cities and regions (Pelling, capacity. Ford et al. (2006) attribute this to the imposition of 2003). For example, trade liberalisation policies associated with western education by the Canadian Federal Government in the globalisation may facilitate climate change adaptation for some, 1970s and 1980s which resulted in less participation in hunting but constrain it for others. In the case of India, many farmers no among youth and consequent reduced transmission of traditional longer plant traditional, drought-tolerant oilseed crops because knowledge. This resulted in a perception among elders and there are no markets due to an influx of cheap imports from experienced hunters, who act as an institutional memory for the abroad (O’Brien et al., 2004). The globalisation of fisheries has maintenance and transmittance of traditional knowledge, that decreased the resilience of marine ecosystems (Berkes et al., the young are not interested in hunting or traditional Inuit ways 730 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity of living. This further eroded traditional knowledge by reducing agriculture to climate variability. This might actually reinforce inter-generational contact, creating a positive feedback in which the exclusion of population groups in dry lands where farmers youth is locked into a spiral of knowledge erosion. The are reluctant to adopt certain agricultural technologies because incorporation of new technology in harvesting (including GPS, of their low market and consumption values and associated high snowmobiles and radios), representing another type of costs (Eriksen et al., 2005). Eriksen et al. (2005) conclude that adaptation, has reinforced this spiral by creating a situation in the determinants of adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in which traditional knowledge is valued less among young Inuit. Kenya and Tanzania are multiple and inter-related. Among wine producers in British Columbia, Canada, In summary, empirical research carried out since the TAR has Belliveau et al. (2006) demonstrate how adaptations to changing shown that there are rarely simple cause-effect relationships economic conditions can increase vulnerability to climate- between climate change risks and the capacity to adapt. Adaptive related risks. Following the North American Free Trade capacity can vary over time and is affected by multiple processes Agreement, grape producers replaced low quality grape varieties of change. In general, the emerging literature shows that the with tender varieties to compete with higher-quality foreign distribution of adaptive capacity within and across societies imports, many of which have lower costs of production. This represents a major challenge for development and a major change enhanced the wine industry’s domestic and international constraint to the effectiveness of any adaptation strategy. Some competitiveness, thereby reducing market risks, but adaptations that address changing economic and social simultaneously increased its susceptibility to winter injury. Thus conditions may increase vulnerability to climate change, just as the initial adaptation of switching varieties to increase economic adaptations to climate change may increase vulnerability to other competitiveness changed the nature of the system to make it changes. more vulnerable to climatic stresses, to which it was previously less sensitive. To minimise frost risks, producers use overhead irrigation to wet the berries. The extra water from irrigation, 17.4 Enhancing adaptation: opportunities however, can dilute the flavour in the grapes, reducing quality and constraints and decreasing market competitiveness. The vulnerability of one region is often ‘tele-connected’ to other regions. In a study of coffee markets and livelihoods in 17.4.1 International and national actions for Vietnam and Central America, Adger et al. (2007) found that implementing adaptation actions in one region created vulnerability in the other through direct market interactions (Vietnamese coffee increased global An emerging literature on the institutional requirements for supply and reduced prices), interactions with weather-related adaptation suggests that there is an important role for public risks (coffee plant diseases and frosts) and the collapse of the policy in facilitating adaptation to climate change. This includes International Coffee Agreement in 1989. In Mexico, Guatemala reducing vulnerability of people and infrastructure, providing and Honduras, the capacity of smallholder coffee farmers to deal information on risks for private and public investments and with severe droughts in 1997 to 1998 and 1999 to 2002 was decision-making, and protecting public goods such as habitats, complicated by low international coffee prices, reflecting species and culturally important resources (Haddad et al., 2003; changes in international institutions and national policies (Eakin Callaway, 2004; Haddad, 2005; Tompkins and Adger, 2005). In et al., 2005). Concurrently, market liberalisation in Mexico, addition, further literature sets out the case for international Guatemala and Honduras reduced state intervention in financial and technology transfers from countries with high commodity production, markets and prices in the region. There greenhouse gas emissions to countries that are most vulnerable were also constraints to adaptation related to a contraction of to present and future impacts, for use in adapting to the impacts rural finance, coupled with a strong cultural significance of climate change (Burton et al., 2002; Simms et al., 2004; Baer, attached to traditional crops. Since coffee production is already 2006; Dow et al., 2006; Paavola and Adger, 2006). Baer (2006) at the upper limit of the ideal temperature range in this region, calculates the scale of these transfers from polluting countries, it is likely that climate change will reduce yields, challenging based on aggregate damage estimates of US$50 billion. farmers to switch to alternative crops, which currently have Considerable progress has also been made in terms of funding poorly developed marketing mechanisms. adaptation within the UNFCCC. Least-developed countries have The capacity of smallholder farmer households in Kenya and been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate Tanzania to cope with climate stresses is often influenced by the change, and planning for their adaptation has been facilitated ability of a household member to specialise in one activity or in through development of National Adaptation Programmes of a limited number of intensive cash-yielding activities (Eriksen et Action (NAPAs). In completing a NAPA, a country identifies al., 2005). However, many households have limited access to priority activities that must be implemented in the immediate this favoured coping option due to lack of labour and human and future in order to address urgent national climate change physical capital. This adaptation option is further constrained by adaptation needs (Burton et al., 2002; Huq et al., 2003). social relations that lead to the exclusion of certain groups, Although only 15 countries had completed their national NAPA especially women, from carrying out favoured activities with reports as of mid-2007, a number of specific projects were sufficient intensity. At present, relatively few investments go identified in these reports for priority action. Since the into improving the viability of these identified coping strategies. implementation of NAPAs had not commenced at the time of Instead, policies tend to focus on decreasing the sensitivity of this assessment, their outcomes in terms of increased adaptive 731 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17 capacity or reduced vulnerability to climate change risks could defining responses at community, national and regional levels. not be evaluated. The process of developing NAPAs is, however, Various multi-lateral and bi-lateral development agencies, such being monitored. Box 17.6 discusses some emerging lessons as the Asian Development Bank, are attempting to integrate from Bangladesh. Early evidence suggests that NAPAs face the climate change adaptation into their grant and loan activities same constraints on effectiveness and legitimacy as other (ADB, 2005; Perez and Yohe, 2005). Other aid agencies have national planning processes (e.g., National Adaptation Plans sought to screen out those loans and grants which are mal- under the Convention to Combat Desertification), including adaptations and create new vulnerabilities, to ascertain the extent narrow and unrepresentative consultation processes (Thomas to which existing development projects already consider climate and Twyman, 2005). risks or address vulnerability to climate variability and change, In the climate change context, the term ‘mainstreaming’ has and to identify opportunities for incorporating climate change been used to refer to integration of climate change vulnerabilities explicitly into future projects. Klein et al. (2007) examine the or adaptation into some aspect of related government policy such activities of several major development agencies over the past as water management, disaster preparedness and emergency five years and find that while most agencies already consider planning or land-use planning (Agrawala, 2005). Actions that climate change as a real but uncertain threat to future promote adaptation include integration of climate information development, they have not explicitly examined how their into environmental data sets, vulnerability or hazard activities affect vulnerability to climate change. They conclude assessments, broad development strategies, macro policies, that mainstreaming needs to encompass a broader set of sector policies, institutional or organisational structures, or in measures to reduce vulnerability than has thus far been the case. development project design and implementation (Burton and Much of the adaptation planning literature emphasises the van Aalst, 1999; Huq et al., 2003). By implementing role of governments, but also recognises the constraints that they mainstreaming initiatives, it is argued that adaptation to climate face in implementing adaptation actions at other scales (Few et change will become part of or will be consistent with other well- al., 2007). There are few examples of successful mainstreaming established programmes, particularly sustainable development of climate change risk into development planning. Agrawala and planning. van Aalst (2005) identified following five major constraints: (a) Mainstreaming initiatives have been classified in the relevance of climate information for development-related development planning literature at four levels. At the decisions; (b) uncertainty of climate information; (c) international level, mainstreaming of climate change can occur compartmentalisation with governments; (d) segmentation and through policy formulation, project approval and country-level other barriers within development-cooperation agencies; and (e) implementation of projects funded by international trade-offs between climate and development objectives. The organisations. For example, the International Federation of Red Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) (Lim et al., 2005) Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC) are working to facilitate a link developed to support national planning for adaptation by the between local and global responses through its Climate Change United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) provides Centre (Van Aalst and Helmer, 2003). An example of an guidance on how these obstacles and barriers to mainstreaming initiative at the regional level is the MACC (Mainstreaming can be overcome. Mirza and Burton (2005) found that the Adaptation to Climate Change) project in the Caribbean. It application of APF was feasible when they applied it for urban assesses the likely impacts of climate change on key economic flooding in Bangladesh and droughts in India. However, they sectors (i.e., water, agriculture and human health) while also concluded that application of the APF could encounter problems

Box 17.6. Early lessons on effectiveness and legitimacy of National Adaptation Programmes of Action

At present there is sparse documentary evidence on outcomes of NAPA planning processes or implementation. One case that has been examined is that of the Bangladesh NAPA (Huq and Khan, 2006). The authors recommend that NAPAs should adopt (a) a livelihood rather than sectoral approach, (b) focus on near- and medium-term impacts of climate variability as well as long- term impacts, (c) should ensure integration of indigenous and traditional knowledge, and (d) should ensure procedural fairness through interactive participation and self-mobilisation (Huq and Khan, 2006). They found that NAPA consultation and planning processes have the same constraints and exhibit the same problems of exclusion and narrow focus as other national planning processes (such as those for Poverty Reduction Strategies). They conclude that the fairness and effectiveness of national adaptation planning depends on how national governments already include or exclude their citizens in decision-making and that effective participatory planning for climate change requires functioning democratic structures. Where these are absent, planning for climate change is little more than rhetoric (Huq and Khan, 2006). Similar issues are raised and findings presented by Huq and Reid (2003), Paavola (2006) and Burton et al. (2002). The key role of non-government and community-based organisations in ensuring the sustainability and success of adaptation planning is likely to become evident over the incoming period of NAPA development and implementation.

732 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity related to a lack of micro-level socio-economic information, and American and east Asian cities (Klinenberg, 2003; Mohanty and gaps in stakeholder participation in the planning, design, Panda, 2003; Lagadec, 2004; Poumadère et al., 2005). implementation and monitoring of projects. This section assesses the limits to adaptation that have been In summary, the opportunities for implementing adaptation discussed in the climate change and related literatures. Limits as part of government planning are dependent on effective, are defined here as the conditions or factors that render equitable and legitimate actions to overcome barriers and limits adaptation ineffective as a response to climate change and are to adaptation (ADB, 2005; Agrawala and van Aalst, 2005; Lim largely insurmountable. These limits are necessarily subjective et al., 2005). Initial signals of impacts have been hypothesised and dependent upon the values of diverse groups. These limits to create the demand and political space for implementing to adaptation are closely linked to the rate and magnitude of adaptation, the so-called ‘policy windows hypothesis’. Box 17.7, climate change, as well as associated key vulnerabilities however, reveals that evidence is contested on whether discussed in Chapter 19. The perceived limits to adaptation are individual weather-related catastrophic events can facilitate hence likely to vary according to different metrics. For example, adaptation action, or whether they act as a barrier to long-term the five numeraires for judging the significance of climate adaptation. change impacts described by Schneider et al. (2000b) - monetary loss, loss of life, biodiversity loss, distribution and equity, and 17.4.2 Limits and barriers to adaptation quality of life (including factors such as coercion to migrate, conflict over resources, cultural diversity, and loss of cultural Most studies of specific adaptation plans and actions argue heritage sites) - can lead to very different assessments of the that there are likely to be both limits and barriers to adaptation limits to adaptation. But emerging literature on adaptation as a response to climate change. The U.S. National Assessment processes also identifies significant barriers to action in (2001), for example, maintains that adaptation will not financial, cultural and policy realms that raise questions about necessarily make the aggregate impacts of climate change the efficacy and legitimacy of adaptation as a response to climate negligible or beneficial, nor can it be assumed that all available change. adaptation measures will actually be taken. Further evidence from Europe and other parts of the globe suggests that high 17.4.2.1 Physical and ecological limits adaptive capacity may not automatically translate into successful There is increasing evidence from ecological studies that the adaptations to climate change (O’Brien et al., 2006). Research resilience of coupled socio-ecological systems to climate change on adaptation to changing flood risk in Norway, for example, will depend on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and that has shown that high adaptive capacity is countered by weak there may be critical thresholds beyond which some systems may incentives for proactive flood management (Næss et al., 2005). not be able to adapt to changing climate conditions without Despite increased attention to potential adaptation options, there radically altering their functional state and system integrity (see is less understanding of their feasibility, costs, effectiveness, and examples in Chapter 1). Scheffer et al. (2001) and Steneck et al. the likely extent of their actual implementation (U.S. National (2002), for instance, find thresholds in the resilience of kelp forest Assessment, 2001). Despite high adaptive capacity and ecosystems, coral reefs, rangelands and lakes affected both by significant investment in planning, extreme heatwave events climate change and other pollutants. Dramatic climatic changes continue to result in high levels of mortality and disruption to may lead to transformations of the physical environment of a infrastructure and electricity supplies in European, North region that limit the possibilities for adaptation (Nicholls and Tol,

Box 17.7. Is adaptation constrained or facilitated by individual extreme events?

The policy window hypothesis refers to the phenomenon whereby adaptation actions such as policy and regulatory change are facilitated and occur directly in response to disasters, such as those associated with weather-related extreme events (Kingdon, 1995). According to this hypothesis, immediately following a disaster, the political climate may be conducive to legal, economic and social change which can begin to reduce structural vulnerabilities, for example, in such areas as mainstreaming gender issues, land reform, skills development, employment, housing and social solidarity. The assumptions behind the policy windows hypothesis are that (a) new awareness of risks after a disaster leads to broad consensus, (b) development and humanitarian agencies are ‘reminded’ of disaster risks, and (c) enhanced political will and resources become available. However, contrary evidence on policy windows suggests that, during the post-recovery phase, reconstruction requires weighing, prioritising and sequencing of policy programming, and there is the pressure to quickly return to conditions prior to the event rather than incorporate longer-term development policies (Christoplos, 2006). In addition, while institutions clearly matter, they are often rendered ineffective in the aftermath of a disaster. As shown in diverse contexts, such as ENSO-related impacts in Latin America, induced development below dams or levees in the U.S. and flooding in the United Kingdom, the end result is that short-term risk reduction can actually produce greater vulnerability to future events (Pulwarty et al., 2003; Berube and Katz, 2005; Penning- Rowsell et al., 2006).

733 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17

2006; Tol et al., 2006). For example, rapid sea-level rise that it becomes economically unfeasible (Scott et al., 2003; Scott et inundates islands and coastal settlements is likely to limit al., 2007). Although the construction of snow domes and indoor adaptation possibilities, with potential options being limited to arenas for alpine skiing has increased in recent years, this migration (see Chapter 15, Barnett and Adger, 2003; Barnett, technology may not be an affordable, acceptable or appropriate 2005). Tol et al. (2006) argue that it is technically possible to adapt adaptation to decreasing snow cover for many communities to five metres of sea-level rise but that the resources required are dependent on ski tourism. Finally, existing or new technology so unevenly distributed that in reality this risk is outside the scope is unlikely to be equally transferable to all contexts and to all of adaptation. In the Sudano-Sahel region of Africa, persistent groups or individuals, regardless of the extent of country-to- below-average rainfall and recurrent droughts in the late 20th country technology transfers (Baer, 2006). Adaptations that are century have constricted physical and ecological limits by effective in one location may be ineffective in other places, or contributing to land degradation, diminished livelihood create new vulnerabilities for other places or groups, particularly opportunities, food insecurity, internal displacement of people, through negative side effects. For example, although cross-border migrations and civil strife (Mortimore and Adams, technologies such as snowmobiles and GPS have facilitated 2001; Leary et al., 2006; Osman-Elasha et al., 2006). The loss of adaptation to climate change among some Inuit hunters, these Arctic sea ice threatens the survival of polar bears, even if hunting are not equally accessible to all, and they have potentially of bears were to be reduced (Derocher et al., 2004). The loss of contributed to inequalities within the community through keystone species may cascade through the socio-ecological differential access to resources (Ford et al., 2006). system, eventually influencing ecosystems services that humans rely on, including provisioning, regulating, cultural, and 17.4.2.3 Financial barriers supporting services (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2006). The implementation of adaptation measures faces a number of The ecological literature has documented regime shifts in financial barriers. At the international level, preliminary estimates ecosystems associated with climatic changes and other drivers from the World Bank indicate that the total costs of ‘climate (Noss, 2001; Scheffer et al., 2001). These regime shifts are proofing’ development could be as high as US$10 billion to argued to impose limits on economic and social adaptation (van US$40 billion /yr (World Bank, 2006). While the analysis notes Vliet and Leemans, 2006). Economies and communities that are that such numbers are only rough estimates, the scale of directly dependent on ecosystems such as fisheries and investment implied constitutes a significant financial barrier. At a agricultural systems are likely to be more affected by sudden more local level, individuals and communities can be similarly and dramatic switches and flips in ecosystems. In a review of constrained by the lack of adequate financial resources. Deep social change and ecosystem shifts, Folke et al. (2005) show that financial poverty is a factor that constrains the use of seemingly there are significant challenges to resource management from inexpensive health measures, such as insecticide-treated bed nets, ecosystem shifts and that these are often outside the experience while limited public finances contribute to choices by public of institutions. The loss of local knowledge associated with health agencies to give low priority to measures that would reduce thresholds in ecological systems is a limit to the effectiveness vulnerability to climate-related health risks (Taylor et al., 2006; of adaptation (Folke et al., 2005). Yanda et al., 2006). In field surveys and focus groups, farmers often cite the lack of adequate financial resources as an important 17.4.2.2 Technological limits factor that constrains their use of adaptation measures which entail Technological adaptations can serve as a potent means of significant investment, such as irrigation systems, improved or adapting to climate variability and change. New technologies new crop varieties, and diversification of farm operations (Smit can be developed to adapt to climate change, and the transfer of and Skinner, 2002). appropriate technologies to developing countries forms an Lack of resources may also limit the ability of low-income important component of the UNFCCC (Mace, 2006). However, groups to afford proposed adaptation mechanisms such as there are also potential limits to technology as an adaptation climate-risk insurance. In the case of Mexico, a restructuring of response to climate change. public agricultural institutions paralleled market liberalisation, First, technology is developed and applied in a social context, reducing the availability of publicly subsidised credit, insurance and decision-making under uncertainty may inhibit the adoption and technical assistance for smallholders (Appendini, 2001). or development of technological solutions to climate change Even where both crop insurance and contract farming were adaptation (Tol et al., 2006). For example, case studies from the being actively promoted by the state and federal government to Rhine delta, the Thames estuary and the Rhone delta in Europe help farmers address climatic contingencies and price volatility, suggest that although protection from five-metre sea-level rise is very few of the surveyed farmers had crop insurance (Wehbe et technically possible, a combination of accommodation and al., 2006). In addition, individuals often fail to purchase retreat is more likely as an adaptation strategy (Tol et al., 2006). insurance against low-probability high-loss events even when it Second, although some adaptations may be technologically is offered at favourable premiums. While this may occur because possible, they may not be economically feasible or culturally of the relative benefits and costs of alternatives, the trade-offs desirable. For example, within the context of Africa, large-scale may not be explicit. Kunreuther et al. (2001) show that the engineering measures for coastal protection are beyond the reach search costs involved in collecting and analysing relevant of many governments due to high costs (Ikeme, 2003). In colder information to clarify trade-offs can be enough to discourage climates that support ski tourism, the extra costs of making snow individuals from undertaking such assessments, and thus from at warmer average temperatures may surpass a threshold where purchasing coverage even when the premium is affordable. 734 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity

Climate change is also likely to raise the actuarial uncertainty work also indicates, consistently with findings in the wider in catastrophe risk assessment, placing upward pressure on climate change risk literature (e.g., Moser and Dilling, 2004), insurance premiums and possibly leading to reductions in risk that individuals tend to prioritise the risks they face, focusing coverage (Mills, 2005). on those they consider – rightly or wrongly – to be the most significant to them at that particular point in time. 17.4.2.4 Informational and cognitive barriers Furthermore, a lack of experience of climate-related events Extensive evidence from psychological research indicates may inhibit adequate responses. It has been shown, for that uncertainty about future climate change combines with instance, that the capacity to adapt among resource- individual and social perceptions of risk, opinions and values to dependent societies in southern Africa is high if based on influence judgment and decision-making concerning climate adaptations to previous changes (Thomas et al., 2005). change (Oppenheimer and Todorov, 2006). It is increasingly Although concern about climate change is widespread and clear that interpretations of danger and risk associated with high amongst publics in western societies, it is not ‘here and climate change are context specific (Lorenzoni et al., 2005) and now’ or a pressing personal priority for most people that adaptation responses to climate change can be limited by (Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006). Weber (2006) found that human cognition (Grothmann and Patt, 2005; Moser, 2005). strong visceral reactions towards the risk of climate change Four main perspectives on informational and cognitive are needed to provoke adaptive behavioural changes. constraints on individual responses (including adaptation) to 3. Perceptions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity are climate change emerge from the literature. important. Psychological research, for example, has provided 1. Knowledge of climate change causes, impacts and possible empirical evidence that those who perceive themselves to be solutions does not necessarily lead to adaptation. Well- vulnerable to environmental risks, or who perceive established evidence from the risk, cognitive and behavioural themselves to be victims of injustice, also perceive psychology literatures points to the inadequacy of the ‘deficit themselves to be more at risk from environmental hazards model’ of public understanding of science, which assumes of all types (Satterfield et al., 2004). Furthermore, that providing individuals with scientifically sound perceptions by the vulnerable of barriers to actually adapting information will result in information assimilation, increased do, in fact, limit adaptive actions, even when there are knowledge, action and support for policies based on this capacities and resources to adapt. Grothman and Patt (2005) information (Eden, 1998; Sturgis and Allum, 2004; examined populations living with flood risk in Germany and Lorenzoni et al., 2005). Individuals’ interpretation of farmers dealing with drought risk in Zimbabwe in order to information is mediated by personal and societal values and better understand cognitive constraints. They found that priorities, personal experience and other contextual factors action was determined by both perceived abilities to adapt (Irwin and Wynne, 1996). As a consequence, an individual’s and observable capacities to adapt. They conclude that a awareness and concern either do not necessarily translate divergence between perceived and actual adaptive capacity into action, or translate into limited action (Baron, 2006; is a real barrier to adaptive action. Moser (2005) similarly Weber, 2006). This is also known as the ‘value-action’ or finds that perceived barriers to action are a major constraint ‘attitude-behaviour’ gap (Blake, 1999) and has been shown in coastal planning for sea-level rise in the United States. in a small number of studies to be a significant barrier to 4. Appealing to fear and guilt does not motivate appropriate adaptation action (e.g., Patt and Gwata, 2002). adaptive behaviour. In fact, communications research has 2. Perceptions of climate change risks are differing. A small shown that appealing to fear and guilt does not succeed in but growing literature addresses the psychological fostering sustained engagement with the issue of climate dimensions of evaluating long-term risk; most focuses on change (Moser and Dilling, 2004). Analysis of print media behaviour changes in relation to climate change mitigation portrayal of climate change demonstrates public confusion policies. However, some studies have explored the when scientific arguments are contrasted in a black-and- behavioural foundations of adaptive responses, including the white, for-and-against manner (Boykoff and Boykoff, 2004; identification of thresholds, or points at which adaptive Carvalho and Burgess, 2005; Ereaut and Segnit, 2006). Calls behaviour begins (e.g., Grothmann and Patt, 2005). Key for effective climate-change communication have focused findings from these studies point to different types of on conveying a consistent, sound message, with the reality of cognitive limits to adaptive responses to climate change. For anthropogenic climate change at its core. This, coupled with example, Niemeyer et al. (2005) found that thresholds of making climate change personally relevant through rapid climate change may induce different individual messages of practical advice on individual actions, helps to responses influenced by trust in others (e.g., institutions, embed responses in people’s locality. Visualisation imagery collective action, etc.), resulting in adaptive, non-adaptive, is being increasingly explored as a useful contribution to and maladaptive behaviours. Hansen et al. (2004) found increasing the effectiveness of communication about climate evidence for a finite pool of worry among farmers in the change risks (e.g., Nicholson-Cole, 2005; Sheppard, 2005). Argentine Pampas. As concern about one type of risk Overall, the psychological research reviewed here indicates that increases, worry about other risks decreases. Consequently, an individual’s awareness of an issue, knowledge, personal concerns about violent conflict, disease and hunger, experience, and a sense of urgency of being personally affected, terrorism, and other risks may overshadow considerations constitute necessary but insufficient conditions for behaviour or about the impacts of climate change and adaptation. This policy change. Perceptions of risk, of vulnerability, motivation 735 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity Chapter 17 and capacity to adapt will also affect behavioural change. These understandings and prioritisations of climate change issues across perceptions vary among individuals and groups within different social and cultural groups can limit adaptive responses populations. Some can act as barriers to adapting to climate (Ford and Smit, 2004). change. Policymakers need to be aware of these barriers, provide Most analyses of adaptation propose that successful structural support to overcome them, and concurrently work adaptations involve marginal changes to material circumstances towards fostering individual empowerment and action. rather than wholesale changes in location and development paths. A few studies have examined the need for and potential for 17.4.2.5 Social and cultural barriers migration, resettlement and relocation as an adaptive strategy, for Social and cultural limits to adaptation can be related to the example, but the cultural implications of large-scale migration are different ways in which people and groups experience, interpret not well understood and could represent significant limits to and respond to climate change. Individuals and groups may have adaptation. Box 17.8 presents evidence that demonstrates that, different risk tolerances as well as different preferences about while relocation and migration have been used as adaptation adaptation measures, depending on their worldviews, values and strategies in the past, there are often large social costs associated beliefs. Conflicting understandings can impede adaptive actions. with these and unacceptable impacts in terms of human rights and Differential power and access to decision makers may promote sustainability. The possibility of migration as a response to climate adaptive responses by some, while constraining them for others. change is still rarely broached in the literature on adaptation to Thomas and Twyman (2005) analysed natural-resource policies climate change, perhaps because it is entirely outside the in southern Africa and showed that even so-called community- acceptable range of proposals (Orlove, 2005). based interventions to reduce vulnerability create excluded groups Although scientific research indicates that forest ecosystems without access to decision-making. In addition, diverse in northern Canada are among those regions at greatest risk from

Box 17.8. Do voluntary or displacement migrations represent failures to adapt?

Migration by individuals or relocation of settlements have been discussed in various studies as a potential adaptive response option to climate change impacts when local environments surpass a threshold beyond which the system is no longer able to support most or all of the population. There has been, for example, discussion of the possibility that sea-level rise will make it impossible for human populations to remain on specific islands. For instance, New Zealand has been discussed as a possible site of relocation for the people of Tuvalu, a nation consisting of low-lying atolls in the western Pacific. Patel (2006) and Barnett (2005) argue that there would be enormous economic, cultural and human costs if large populations were to abandon their long- established home territories and move to new places. Sea-level rise impacts on the low-lying Pacific Island atoll states of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau and the Marshall Islands may, at some threshold, pose risks to their sovereignty or existence (Barnett, 2001). Barnett and Adger (2003) argue that this loss of sovereignty itself represents a dangerous climate change and that the possibility of relocation represents a limit of adaptation.

The ability to migrate as an adaptive strategy is not equally accessible to all, and decisions to migrate are not controlled exclusively by individuals, households, or local and state governments (McLeman, 2006). Studies in Asia and North America (Adger et al., 2002; Winkels, 2004; McLeman and Smit, 2006) show that strong social capital can obviate the need for relocation in the face of risk, and is also important in determining the success and patterns of migration as an adaptive strategy: the spatial patterns of existing social networks in a community influence their adaptation to climate change. Where household social networks are strong at the local scale, adaptations that do not lead to migration, or that lead to local-scale relocations, are more likely responses than long-distance migration away from areas under risk. Conversely, if the community has widespread social networks, or is part of a transnational community, then far-reaching migration is possible. McLeman and Smit (2006) show that a range of economic, social and cultural processes played roles in shaping migration behaviour and migration patterns in response to climate conditions and resulting long-term drought in rural eastern Oklahoma in the 1930s. While temporary migration has often been used as a risk management response to climate variability, permanent migration may be required when physical or ecological limits to adaptation have been surpassed.

Mendelsohn et al. (2007) examined correlations between incomes in rural districts in the United States and in Brazil, with parameters of present climate and physical parameters of agricultural productivity. They argued that climate affects agricultural productivity which, in turn, affects per capita income (even when this is defined as both farm and non-farm incomes for a district) and that climatic changes that reduce productivity may have direct consequences in rural poverty. Mendelsohn et al. (2007) therefore argue that climate change impacts in rural economies may make migration and relocation a necessary but undesirable adaptation. Finan and Nelson (2001), however, suggest that government policies in Brazil, such as rural retirement policies, have actually augmented household adaptive capacity and attracted young migrants back from cities. Thus migration can be influenced by government intervention. In the case of island states, Barnett (2005) argues that adaptation should already be deemed as unsuccessful if it has limited development opportunities.

736 Chapter 17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity the impacts of climate change, the social dimensions of forest- Adaptation is occurring in both the developed and developing dependent communities indicate both a limited community worlds, both to climate variability and, in a limited number of capacity and a limited potential to perceive climate change as a cases, to observed or anticipated climate change. Adaptation to salient risk issue that warrants action. Climate change messages climate change is seldom undertaken in a stand-alone fashion, are often associated with environmentalism and but as part of broader social and development initiatives. environmentalists, who have been perceived by many residents Adaptation also has limits, some posed by the magnitude and of resource-dependent communities as an oppositional political rate of climate change, and others that relate to financial, force. Risk perceptions tend to be higher for women than for men, institutional, technological, cultural and cognitive barriers. The the higher concern levels of women may either be stifled or simply capacities for adaptation, and the processes by which it occurs, be unexpressed in a highly male-dominated environment vary greatly within and across regions, countries, sectors and (Davidson et al., 2003). communities. Policy and planning processes need to take these Anthropological research suggests that the scale and novelty aspects into account in the design and implementation of of climate changes are not the sole determinants of degree of adaptation. The review in this chapter suggests that a high impact (Orlove, 2005). Societies change their environments, and priority should be given to increasing the capacity of countries, thus alter their own vulnerability to climate fluctuations. The regions, communities and social groups to adapt to climate experience of development of the Colorado River Basin in the change in ways that are synergistic with wider societal goals of face of environmental uncertainty clearly illustrates that impacts sustainable development. and interventions can reverberate through the systems in ways that There are significant outstanding research challenges in can only be partially traced and predicted (Pulwarty et al., 2005). understanding the processes by which adaptation is occurring Accounting for future economic and social trends involves and will occur in the future, and in identifying areas for problems of indeterminacy (imperfectly understood structures and leverage and action by government. Many initiatives on processes), discontinuity (novelty and surprise in social systems), adaptation to climate change are too recent at the time of this reflexivity (the ability of people and organisations to reflect on assessment to evaluate their impact on reducing societal and adapt their behaviour), and framing (legitimately-diverse vulnerability. Further research is therefore needed to monitor views about the state of the world) (Berkhout et al., 2002; progress on adaptation, and to assess the direct as well as Pulwarty et al., 2003). Case studies reveal that there exists a ancillary effects of such measures. In this context there is also diversity of local or traditional practices for ecosystem a need for research on the synergies and trade-offs between management under environmental uncertainty. These include rules various adaptation measures, and between adaptation and other for social regulation, mechanisms for cultural internalisation of development priorities. Human intervention to manage the traditional practices and the development of appropriate world process of adaptation in biological systems is also not well views and cultural values (Pretty, 2003). understood, and the goals of conservation are contested. Social and cultural limits to adaptation are not well researched: Hence, research is also required on the resilience of socio- Jamieson (2006) notes that a large segment of the U.S. population ecological systems to climate change. Another key area where think of themselves as environmentalists but often vote for information is currently very limited is on the economic and environmentally negative candidates. Although many societies are social costs and benefits of adaptation measures. In particular, highly adaptive to climate variability and change, vulnerability is the non-market costs and benefits of adaptation measures dynamic and likely to change in response to multiple processes, involving ecosystem protection, health interventions, and including economic globalisation (Leichenko and O’Brien, 2002). alterations to land use are under-researched. Information is also The Inuit, for example, have a long history of adaptation to lacking on the economy-wide implications of particular changing environmental conditions. However, flexibility in group adaptations on economic growth and employment. size and group structure to cope with climate variability and unpredictability is no longer a viable strategy, due to settlement in permanent communities. Also, memories and hunting narratives References are appearing unreliable because of rapid change. 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