State of Disunion:

Party Disunity, Moderate Voting and Ideological Variety. A New Methodology for Scoring Congressional Polarization.

Submitted by Benjamin Barry Jones to the University of Exeter

As a thesis for the degree of

Masters by Research in Politics.

September 2013.*

This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement.

I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University.

Signature: Benjamin Barry Jones.

* In memory of Audrey James and George Cooper. With thanks to Gabriel Katz and Kirsty Evans.

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Contents Page.

Abstract. (p. 6)

Chapter One: Literature Review. (p. 7)

What is ‘Polarization’, and who is ‘Polarized’? (p. 7)

Realignment and ‘sorting’. (p. 19)

Mass level trends (race, gender and income inequality). (p. 25)

Rules Reform, Congressional Norms and Politicised Procedural Votes. (p. 27)

Party Identification and the Benefits of Polarization. (p. 29)

Redistricting and Gerrymandering. (p. 33)

Conclusion. (p. 40)

Chapter Two: Introducing the ‘I-Score’ Methodology with a Case Study of the 110th Congress. (p. 42)

Introducing the ‘I-Score’. (p. 42)

Case Studies: Independents as Moderates? (p. 49)

Overview of I-Scores in the 110th Congress. (p. 54)

I-Scores in the 110th House. (p. 55)

I-Scores and All House Delegations. (p. 58)

Case Studies of Regional Variations in the 110th Congress: Florida. (p. 62)

Case Studies of Regional Variations in the 110th Congress: Ohio. (p. 64)

I-Scores in the 110th Senate. (p. 65)

I-Scores and all Senate Delegations. (p. 68)

Comparing the Senate and the House. (p. 73)

Conclusion. (p. 74)

Chapter Three: Regions, Caucuses and Ideological Variety. Modifying Party I-Scores from the 102nd to the 112th Congress. (p. 77)

I-Scores Over Time: The 102nd to 112th Congresses. (p. 77) 2

The Tea Party. (p. 83)

The Blue Dog Caucus. (p. 86)

Regional I-Scores from the 102nd to the 112th Congress (Southern Democrats). (p. 90)

Regional I-Scores from the 102nd to the 112th Congress (Northern Republicans). (p. 97)

Comparing Regional and Tea Party Modifiers: Who Influences Party I-Scores Most? (p. 100)

The Impact of Majority House Control on Average Party I-Scores. (p. 102)

The Impact of Majority Senate Control on Average Party I-Scores. (p. 106)

Party Variety in the GOP, or Minority/Majority Status? (p. 108)

Conclusion. (p. 109)

Chapter Four: I-Scores in Practice; Three Issue Case Studies. (p. 111)

Introduction. (p. 111)

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, 2010. (p. 113)

The American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, 2009. (p. 121)

National Security. (p. 127)

Conclusion. (p. 133)

Bibliography. (p. 135)

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List of Figures.

Figure 1.1- Polarization in the 90th, 100th and 110th Congresses. (p. 8)

Figure 1.2- Electoral College vote allocation of North Eastern states from 1948 to 2012. (p. 21)

Figure 2.1- Relationship between Party Unity and DW-NOMINATE Scores. (p. 44)

Figure 2.2- 110th Congress, 2007 to 2009, DW-NOMINATE (ideology) by Party Unity. (p. 47)

Figure 2.3- Number of North Eastern Republicans in Congress (House and Senate). (p. 50)

Figure 2.4- Comparison of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins’ I-Scores against GOP Senate Average. (p. 52)

Figure 2.5- 110th House, I-Scores and Party Unity Scores. (p. 55)

Figure 2.6- All I-Scores in the 110th House, by Party. (p. 58)

Figure 2.7- Bipartisan Average I-Scores Within All House Delegations. (p. 59)

Figure 2.8- Average I-Score