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Russia Strives to Assert Primacy, Rein in Turkish Ambitions in Syria

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Russia Strives to Assert Primacy, Rein in Turkish Ambitions in Syria UK £2 Issue 189, Year 4 January 20, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Interview Recording Egypt’s minister abuses of of finance Palestinian rights Page 19 Page 13 Russia strives to assert primacy, rein in Turkish ambitions in Syria ► The withdrawal of the 2,000 American troops raises the question of which power will take over once the United States leaves. Thomas Seibert highlight Moscow’s strong reserva- tions about Turkey’s manoeuvres. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Istanbul Lavrov has said the Kremlin ex- pected the Syrian government to ussia seems determined take over territory in eastern Syria to assert its position as following the US withdrawal. He the strongest political and asserted it was necessary to fully R military player in Syria restore Syria’s sovereignty, add- while local and international pow- ing that Turkey’s plan to create a ers scramble to fill the expected buffer zone should be seen in that vacuum after the planned US with- context. drawal from the country. By sending military police to the With the US and Kurdish allies area west of Manbij in northern Syr- controlling approximately 25% of ia, Moscow made it clear that Rus- north-eastern Syria, the withdrawal sia does not intend to give Turkey a of the 2,000 American troops raises free hand in the region, said Kerim the question of which power will Has, a Moscow-based analyst of take over once the United States Russian-Turkish relations. leaves. The deployment demonstrated Turkish President Recep Tayyip “that Russia opts [for] its own pres- Erdogan told lawmakers of his rul- ence to avert Turkish demands for a ing party that he raised the possible military advancement,” Has said via creation of a “safe zone” in north- e-mail. ern Syria in a phone call with US Joe Macaron, a resident fellow at President Donald Trump. Erdogan the Arab Centre in Washington, said spoke of a “safe area along the Turk- Erdogan felt emboldened by the ish border in Syria, to be set up by US withdrawal plan and was try- Primacy at stake. A member of the Russian military stands guard on the border between Syria and us” and said Trump had spoken of a ing to determine whether Russia or Lebanon in Jdaidat Yabous. (AFP) zone with a depth of 30km. the United States would be a better Turkey sees the plan as a way to partner to implement the project. push Kurdish militants back from “Moscow is trying to lure An- against any kind of aggression or an’s plan. “A safe area under the Sham tightened its grip despite a the border. A buffer zone would kara by offering a Syrian regime- occupation, including the Turkish auspices of Turkey in northern Syr- pledge by Turkey to expel extrem- give Turkey a strong position in any controlled safe zone that takes into occupation of Syrian lands,” said a ia is tantamount to a declaration of ists from there. negotiations about post-war Syria. consideration Turkish interests but Foreign Ministry source quoted by genocide against the Kurdish peo- “For now, Moscow is still keeping Erdogan seems more interested in the state news agency SANA. ple,” the PYD said on Twitter. its position of eliminating the terror a deal with Trump, which seems Ankara has been pressing for a Ankara’s calculations have been groups in the region by the help of By sending military unlikely in the foreseeable future,” “safe zone” in Syria for years. Tur- further complicated by a suicide Turkish army and its proxies,” Has police to the area west of Macaron said in an e-mail message. key regards the People’s Protection attack, claimed by ISIS, in which as said. “However, this attitude may Manbij in northern Syria, As a result, Erdogan’s plan could Units (YPG), a Syrian-Kurdish mi- many as 20 people, including four shift to supporting a regime offen- Moscow made it clear lead to nothing, he added. “Estab- litia and a US partner in the fight US service personnel, were killed. sive in Idlib if a serious disagree- that Russia does not lishing a safe zone in northern Syria against the Islamic State (ISIS), as The attack in Manbij could slow the ment appears between Turkey and intend to give Turkey a remains improbable as the devil is a terrorist organisation. The YPG US withdrawal because it demon- Russia on the issue of Turkish Ar- free hand in the region. in the details of implementing it,” has created an autonomous region strated that ISIS has not been de- my’s advancement in north-eastern Macaron said. along the Syrian border to Turkey feated, despite Trump’s statement Syria.” Russia is leaving no doubts, how- Other important players voiced that Erdogan says is a threat to to the contrary. ever, as to who should have prima- reservations about a Turkey-con- Turkish national security. Turkey’s hand has been weak- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly cy in Syria. The January 23 meeting trolled buffer zone. The government The Democratic Union Party ened by developments in the rebel- correspondent. between Erdogan and Russian Pres- in Damascus vowed “to defend its (PYD), the YPG’s political mother held Syrian province of Idlib, where ident Vladimir Putin is expected to people and the sanctity of its land organisation, also rejected Erdog- al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al- P2-3,14 Relief as Tunisia strike ends peacefully, dispels spectre of decades past Lamine Ghanmi cratic regime in which a civilised Habib Achour. Many union leaders cated to serving the citizens and the and peaceful general strike occurs were jailed amid the crackdown. nation.” without chaos, bloodshed, torture, The night before the latest action, Commentators said the alarm Tunis imprisonment and other torments Chahed said there was a “consti- raised about risks inherent in the suffered by Tunisians during the tutional right” to strike and such a strike was politically motived. Po- unisia’s political elites ex- Black Thursday of January 26, 1978,” move was a normal event in a de- litical analyst Zied Krichene argued pressed relief after a nation- said parliament member Sahbi Ben mocracy. He said he looked forward that “some people wanted to exploit wide strike over wage raises Fredj, a leading figure in the group to the resumption of dialogue with the current crisis and create a mood T ended without violence. supporting Tunisian Prime Minister the union after the strike. of fear among citizens.” Although the 1-day work stoppage Youssef Chahed. UGTT negotiators had sought pay Other experts said wariness about paralysed the country, its peaceful The strike showed deep changes raises of as much as $90 a month for unrest is a legitimate concern, con- outcome quelled fears of upheaval in Tunisian society and govern- civil servants and the government sidering social tensions connected voiced by many Tunisians, includ- ment, including the behaviour of its had offered increases of about $60 with high unemployment and de- ing Tunisian President Beji Caid Es- once-feared security apparatus four a month. Reining in civil servants’ teriorating standard of living of the sebsi. decades ago. pay is key demand of international poor and middle classes. The fears stemmed from a general In 1976, “protesters erected bar- lenders to get Tunisian economic Such concerns are likely to endure strike 41 years ago that resulted in ricades as they were attacked from problems under control. with the trade unions promising an bloodshed and plunged the country unmarked police cars. I was a wit- Much of the credit for the peace- “escalation” of protest initiatives, into a political crisis. ness,” recalled Salah Horchani, who ful nature of the 2019 strike went to including a new public service strike The Tunisian General Labour Un- was then a university student. The the changed behaviour of army and on February 20-21, while the govern- ion (UGTT), which has more than official toll was 46 dead and 325 police and the new security doctrine ment struggles to create economic 500,000 members, called a strike wounded. Independent estimates they have adopted. growth and balance the budget. for January 17 to protest economic put the number of those killed at Peaceful protest. A Tunisian After the strike, Tunisian Interior conditions. It said it had near 100% more than 400. woman shouts slogans in front of Minister Hichem Fourati exhorted Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly participation in the work action. At that time, President Habib the headquarters of the Tunisian security forces “to safeguard the correspondent in Tunis. “Thank God. We lived long Bourguiba saw an existential chal- General Labour Union as part of a trust that has been built on the se- enough to experience a demo- lenge to his rule by UGTT leader general strike, January 17. (DPA) curity establishment as a force dedi- P4 2 January 20, 2019 Cover Story Developments Viewpoint The ‘Russian Patent’ offers shift Erdogan’s solutions to Syrian conflict zones priorities in Syria Sami Moubayed In Russia last September, Er- dogan seemed to have very con- sciously promised more than Beirut what he could — or wanted to — deliver, going ahead with an ex- uring his high-profile tension of the “demilitarisation meeting with Russian agreement” to sooth the fears of President Vladimir Putin Germany and France, when he D last September, Turkish hosted German Chancellor An- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gela Merkel and French President promised to cleanse the Syrian Emmanuel Macron in Istanbul. city of Idlib of Hayat Tahrir al-Sh- If the agreement is pronounced am (HTS) by October 15, 2018. dead and if the Syrians and Rus- Three months later, not only sians advance on Idlib, Erdogan does HTS remain alive but it would not mind, only if he gets recently expanded both hori- to carry out his ambitions in Ras zontally and vertically through al-Ayn, Kobane and Tell Rifaat, the war-torn city, making the where he claims Kurdish warriors Turkish-Russian demilitarisation fled from Afrin last February.
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