Dendroclimatology: Extracting Climate from Trees Paul R
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Focus Article Dendroclimatology: extracting climate from trees Paul R. Sheppard∗ The scientific discipline called dendrochronology is the study of tree rings and of environmental conditions and events of the past that tree growth can reflect. The beginning of scientific study of tree rings is generally ascribed to an astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglass, who in the early 1900s noticed not only variation in tree-ring width but also that this variability was similar between multiple trees. Dendrochronology subsequently expanded worldwide, and now over 3000 of the 12,000+ publications on dendrochronology can be classified as dendroclimatology. As a subfield of tree-ring analysis, dendroclimatology estimates climate back in time beyond the start of recorded meteorological measurements. Dendroclimatology starts with site and tree selection and continues with dating, measuring, data quality control, and chronology construction. Tree rings are associated with climate using statistical models that are then evaluated for their full length to reconstruct climate of the past. Most commonly, either precipitation or temperature is reconstructed, and reconstructions are then analyzed for frequency of extreme years, changes in mean conditions, ranges of long-term variability, and changes in interannual variability. For example, from reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature based on tree rings and other natural archives of climate collected from multiple sites, it appears that current temperature (since ad 1850) exceeds the range of variability reconstructed for ad 1000-1850. Uncertainties in dendroclimatology exist, including a relatively recent issue called divergence, but dendroclimatology has played, and continues to play, a substantial role in interdisciplinary research on climate change . 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2010 1 343–352 he objective of this paper is to review dendro- SHORT HISTORY OF Tclimatology with an eye toward the role this DENDROCLIMATOLOGY subdiscipline plays in broader research on climate As long ago as the ancient Greeks, tree rings have change. The scientific discipline called dendrochronol- been observed to form mostly on an annual basis, ogy is the study of tree rings and of environmental and width and other characteristics of tree rings have conditions and events of the past that tree growth 7 1 been noted to vary from year to year. Leonardo da can reflect. As a subfield of dendrochronology, den- Vinci associated tree-ring variation with change in droclimatology estimates climate back in time beyond the environment at the time of ring formation.8 Such 2 the start of recorded meteorological measurements. observation and reasoning could be considered early Dendroclimatic reconstructions can be analyzed to dendrochronology. 3 assess long-term departures from average climate, The beginning of scientific study of tree rings 4 frequency of extreme climate, changes in interan- is generally ascribed to the early 1900s and to 5 nual variability in climate, and ranges of long-term an astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglass.9 variability in climate.6 While living and working in Flagstaff, Arizona, Douglass noticed not only variation in tree-ring width but also that this variability was similar between ∗Correspondence to: [email protected] multiple trees. Douglass surmised that the specific Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, environmental component causing multiple trees of an Arizona, USA area to show similar patterns of tree-ring variability DOI: 10.1002/wcc.42 was climate, probably moisture availability generally Volume 1, May/June 2010 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 343 Focus Article wires.wiley.com/climatechange and rainfall more specifically.10 As an astronomer, A sizeable percentage of global dendrochronol- Douglass was keenly interested in the sun and in ogy has fallen within the subdiscipline of dendro- variation of its output of energy, which is a factor in climatology. The rate of publication of papers on variation of climate on earth.11 By extension, Douglass dendroclimatology was slow during the first half of hypothesized that since ring growth of trees reflected the 20th century, but it increased exponentially after climate, perhaps they also indirectly reflected variation 1960 (Figure 2). Over 3000 of the 12,000+ scientific of the sun itself.12 In this way, quantitative study of publications currently listed in the online bibliogra- tree rings could lead to valuable understanding of phy of dendrochronology26 contain some version of the sun. the word ’climate’. By sheer dint of this prodigious Alas, by the time of his passing in 1962,13 body of research, dendroclimatology has contributed Douglass had not fully succeeded in matching pat- mightily to the study of past climate and of climate terns of tree rings with variation in solar output.14 change. Nonetheless, throughout his remarkable career, Dou- glass developed techniques and codified principles that underlie dendrochronological methods used today. METHODS OF Among other accomplishments, Douglass refined the DENDROCLIMATOLOGY understanding of how climate affects tree rings, ulti- A crucial first step in dendroclimatology is site mately publishing 75 works in dendrochronology, selection.28 In sites where moisture availability limits many of which can be classified as dendroclimatology. tree growth, tree rings can be used to reconstruct From the humble beginnings of Douglass work- precipitation, whereas in sites where growing season ing on tree rings in near isolation in Arizona,15 the field temperature limits tree growth, tree rings can be used of dendrochronology expanded tremendously. Dou- to reconstruct temperature.29 Once at a dendroclimate glass was joined by students and colleagues by whom site, trees are chosen for sampling based principally dendrochronology radiated throughout North Amer- on apparent age and on the absence of evidence ica, with a particularly important work of dendro- of disturbance by nonclimatic processes such as climatology being published in 1956: Dendroclimatic fire,30 wind,31 wildlife,32 earthquakes,33 volcanic Changes in Semiarid America.16 Dendrochronologi- eruptions,34 or humans.35 cal research was also initiated elsewhere, including A critical next step in dendrochronology is Europe,17 northern Asia,18 Australasia,19 southern ensuring that each tree ring is dated to its year of South America,20 southeast Asia,21 and parts of formation. For dating, a procedure called crossdating Africa22,23 (Figure 1(a)). Tree-ring sites are notice- is done whereby patterns of relatively wide and ably sparse throughout the tropics, which constitute a narrow rings are matched across trees.36 Some tree- substantial research frontier for dendrochronology.24 ring collections wind up not being crossdateable,37 (a) (b) AZ NM 5000 km 300 km FIGURE 1| (a) World map with tree-ring sites (triangles) archived in the International Tree-ring Data Bank, and (b) map of the American Southwest (Arizona and New Mexico) with tree-ring sites (triangles). Data from NCDC25 as of August 2009. 344 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 1, May/June 2010 WIREs Climate Change Dendroclimatology not unambiguously interpretable as an environmental Total number of dendroclimatology signal,52 hence detrending. 150 publications = 3,169 Following detrending, resultant standardized series are merged into a single time series, i.e., the 100 chronology, a fundamental product of dendrochronol- ogy. Site chronologies are well replicated, usually comprising 20+ trees. For site chronologies to demon- 50 strate variability in common, most trees within them publications per year must have been affected the same way by some envi- Number of dendroclimatology ronmental factor,53 which is usually climate. 0 With data reduction done, tree-ring chronologies 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year (AD) are quantitatively associated with climate. For this step, climate data can come from individual FIGURE 2| Number of dendroclimatology publications per year meteorological stations or from multiple stations listed within the online Bibliography of Dendrochronology27. averaged across climatically homogeneous regions.54 Meteorological data come in various time steps, such as hourly, daily, weekly, or monthly, but ultimately but when patterns of ring-growth variability are tree rings usually associate with climate on a seasonal strong and held synchronously across multiple trees, or yearly time step. confidence in crossdating can be high, to the point of being essentially indisputable.38 Various statistical methods exist to quantify the 55 In dendroclimatology, tree rings are measured. relationship between tree rings and climate. Basic 56 The predominant, workhorse variable of tree-ring methods of dendroclimatology include correlation 57 research is total ring width,39 with earlywood and or response-function analysis, each with confidence 58 latewood width often being measured separately.40 intervals for assessing significance. Dendroclimate When appropriate, wood density of rings might be models can be quantified regionally, incorporating measured,41 with emphasis on latewood maximum multiple sites.59 Once calibrated, the relationship density,42 which primarily reflects temperature43 but between tree rings and climate is verified on also occasionally precipitation.44 Stable isotopes of independent data not used in calibration, e.g., with carbon and oxygen have also been measured in tree split-period testing,60 prediction sum of squares,61 rings