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Here, Have Potent Implications for International Affairs “Today we use the term ‘the world’ with what amounts to brash familiarity. Too often in speaking of such things as the world food problem, the world health problem, world trade, world peace, and world government, we disregard the fact that ‘the world’ is a totality which in the domain of human problems constitutes the ultimate in degree of magnitude and degree of complexity. That is a fact, yes; but another fact is that almost every large problem today is, in truth, a world problem. Those two facts taken together provide thoughtful men with what might realistically be entitled ‘an introduction to humility’ in curing the world’s ills.” — President Emeritus John Sloan Dickey, 1947 Convocation Address World Outlook An Undergraduate Journal of International Affairs at Dartmouth College Editors-in-Chief Charles Bateman ‘22 Ben Vagle ‘22 Senior Editors Caleb Benjamin ’23 Jesse Ferraioli ’23 Ian Gill ’23 Sam LeLacheur ’23 Kristabel Konta ’24 Adam Salzman ‘24 Staff Editors Paul Keller ’23 Joseph Fausey ’23 Rothschild Toussaint ’23 Rujuta Pandit ’24 Matt Capone ’24 Halle Troadec ’24 Sri Sathvik Rayala ’24 Hannah Dunleavy ’24 Wenhan Sun ‘24 The Editors of World Outlook would like to express gratitude to the John Sloan Dickey Center for its encouragement and assistance. Founders Timothy E. Bixby ’87 Peter M. Lehmann ’85 Anne E. Eldridge ’87 Mark C. Henrie ’87 Peter D. Murane ’87 About the Journal: World Outlook is a student-run journal of international affairs that publishes papers writ- ten by undergraduate students. In addition, the journal features interviews with major global thinkers and opinion pieces written by our own staff. Our name and missions are motivated by the words of late Dartmouth President John Sloan Dickey. Please visit our website at http://sites.dartmouth.edu/worldoutlook. Subscription Information: World Outlook (ISSN 0895-7452) is published bi-annually. Subscription requests should be directed to [email protected]. Submissions: World Outlook welcomes all current and former undergraduate students to submit papers relating to any aspect of international affairs. Papers to be considered for publication must be available in digital format. Papers should include references and bibliography consis- tent with the Chicago Manual of Style guidelines. Submissions must be original works with accurate citations. Submit your work for review to [email protected], and include your name, school, and class year. All submissions become property of World Outlook. Contact: World Outlook welcomes comments, criticism and corrections. Letters to the editor and cor- rections should be emailed to [email protected]. or addressed to: World Outlook at the John Sloan Dickey Center 6048 Haldeman Dartmouth College Hanover, NH 03755 Spring 2021 Issue 59 Contents Essays Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, and Global Public Perceptions of the United States Karin Y. Kitsuda...........................................................................................7 Authoritarian Influence Operations in East Asia: Chinese Foreign Interference through Cyberwarfare, Influence Operations, and Coercion Adam Foster...............................................................................................18 Unavoidable Aspects of Migrant Labor: Analysis of Race, Gender, and Class in the Kafala System in Contemporary Middle East Warisha Siddiqui........................................................................................39 Between a Canal and a Hard Alliance Jacob C. Lefkowitz.....................................................................................47 Saying Bye to Binaries: The Transformative Potential of Trans Studies in Interna- tional Relations Arin Yost....................................................................................................66 George W. Bush and the Darfur Genocide: An Application of Prospect Theory Gabrielle Levy............................................................................................87 Anatomy of Catastrophe in Cuba: Defective Decision-Making Structures and President Kennedy’s Authorization of Operation Zapata Annie Farrell..............................................................................................95 Building Blocs: BRICS Coalition Making and Their Impact on the WTO Sylvia Lorico............................................................................................110 Editor’s Note The past year has been characterized by intense change—the COVID pandemic has had a transformative impact on people around the globe; competition between great powers, such as the U.S., China, and Russia, has intensified; and domestic political shifts, in the U.S. and elsewhere, have potent implications for international affairs. Such a chaotic environment demands new objectives and policies from all nations. This issue of World Outlook explores some of the changes affecting the world and examines theoretical frameworks and past events that can explain how foreign policymakers may navigate them. “Authoritarian Influence Operations in East Asia: Chinese Foreign Interference through Cyberwarfare, Influence Operations, and Coercion,” by Adam Foster; “Unavoidable Aspects of Migrant Labor: Analysis of Race, Gender, and Class in the Kafala System in Contempo- rary Middle East,” by Warisha Siddiqui; and “Building Blocs: BRICS Coalition Making and Their Impact on the WTO,” by Sylvia Lorico, examine two key issues in international affairs: the re-emergence of great power competition and the multifaceted, vexing impacts of global- ization. Collectively, these papers are a reminder of how changes in international structure can combine with worldwide cultural and economic integration to create today’s challenges. Crucially, the trends outlined above don’t just impact states, they affect people too. In “Say- ing Bye to Binaries: The Transformative Potential of Trans Studies in International Rela- tions,” Arin Yost outlines how a trans IR framework can allow scholars to more authentically center individual backgrounds and motivations when studying foreign policy. Lastly, this issue explores how foreign policymaking mechanisms—specifically those of the U.S.—can offer lessons for navigating today’s challenges. In her paper, “Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, and Global Public Perceptions of the United States,” Karin Kitsuda analyzes the impact of U.S. public diplomacy expenditure on U.S soft power, highlighting the impor- tance of international engagement to positive global perceptions of the U.S. Next, Gabrielle Levy, in “George W. Bush and the Darfur Genocide: An Application of Prospect Theory,” examines how political considerations caused the Bush Administration to declare a genocide in Darfur. Finally, Jacob Lefkowitz’s “Between a Canal and a Hard Alliance” and Annie Far- rell’s “Anatomy of Catastrophe in Cuba: Defective Decision-Making Structures and President Kennedy’s Authorization of Operation Zapata’’ examine the causes of President Eisenhower and Kennedy’s great foreign policy failures, and, in the process, suggest ways in which to avoid future crises. We chose these papers because we believe they offer important lessons on the foreign policy challenges of our time and demonstrate how today’s policymakers may respond to them. Selecting these articles was an incredible intellectual experience, and we hope that you find them as enjoyable to read as we did. Sincerely, Charles Bateman ‘22 and Ben Vagle ‘22 Editors-in-Chief 7 PUBLIC DIPLOMACY, SOFT POWER, AND GLOBAL PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES Karin Y. Kitsuda Soft power is defined as the ability to influence favorable outcomes through attraction, and is critical for the United States’ ability to pursue its interests abroad. As a key tool for promoting soft power, public diplomacy is used by governments to attract the publics of other countries. This paper examines public survey and government spending data to analyze trends in global perceptions of the United States and public diplomacy spending by the United States government under presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. Findings indicate that global attitudes toward the United States have fluctuated under each president, with global confidence and favorability being the highest under President Obama. Although public diplomacy spending has increased over time, it falls short of accommodating the concurrent growth in the global audience. A significant positive correlation is found between public diplomacy spending per foreign citizen and global favorability rates of the United States when comparing trends under Bush Jr., Obama, and Trump’s presidencies. A weak relationship was found between public di- plomacy spending per foreign citizen and global confidence in the current United States president, however this may be explained by a lack of available data and the relatively shorter amount of time that Trump has spent in office. To prevent the further decline of American influence abroad and to recover American soft power, the United States government should recommit to public diplomacy and increase its public diplomacy ap- propriations. INTRODUCTION Soft power, as defined by Joseph S. Nye Jr., is the ability to bring about desirable out- comes through the means of attraction rather than payments or coercion (Nye 2008, 94). A country’s soft power grows out of the attractiveness of its culture, political val- ues, and policies. This has significant implications on the foreign policies of a country such as the United States, as the attractiveness
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