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the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #55 | february 2016 mapping pakistan’s internal dynamics Implications for State Stability and Regional Security By Mumtaz Ahmad, Dipankar Banerjee, Aryaman Bhatnagar, C. Christine Fair, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Husain Haqqani, Mahin Karim, Tariq A. Karim, Vivek Katju, C. Raja Mohan, Matthew J. Nelson, and Jayadeva Ranade cover 2 NBR Board of Directors Charles W. Brady George Davidson Tom Robertson (Chairman) Vice Chairman, M&A, Asia-Pacific Vice President and Chairman Emeritus HSBC Holdings plc Deputy General Counsel Invesco LLC Microsoft Corporation Norman D. Dicks John V. Rindlaub Senior Policy Advisor Gordon Smith (Vice Chairman and Treasurer) Van Ness Feldman LLP Chief Operating Officer President, Asia Pacific Exact Staff, Inc. Wells Fargo Richard J. Ellings President Scott Stoll George F. Russell Jr. NBR Partner (Chairman Emeritus) Ernst & Young LLP Chairman Emeritus R. 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Herbold Harvard University The Herbold Group, LLC nbr special report #55 | february 2016 mapping pakistan’s internal dynamics Implications for State Stability and Regional Security Mumtaz Ahmad, Dipankar Banerjee, Aryaman Bhatnagar, C. Christine Fair, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Husain Haqqani, Mahin Karim, Tariq A. Karim, Vivek Katju, C. Raja Mohan, Matthew J. Nelson, and Jayadeva Ranade the national bureau of asian research The NBR Special Report provides access to current research on special topics conducted by the world’s leading experts in Asian affairs. The views expressed in these reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of other NBR research associates or institutions that support NBR. The National Bureau of Asian Research is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution dedicated to informing and strengthening policy. NBR conducts advanced independent research on strategic, political, economic, globalization, health, and energy issues affecting U.S. relations with Asia. Drawing upon an extensive network of the world’s leading specialists and leveraging the latest technology, NBR bridges the academic, business, and policy arenas. The institution disseminates its research through briefings, publications, conferences, Congressional testimony, and email forums, and by collaborating with leading institutions worldwide. NBR also provides exceptional internship opportunities to graduate and undergraduate students for the purpose of attracting and training the next generation of Asia specialists. NBR was started in 1989 with a major grant from the Henry M. Jackson Foundation. Funding for NBR’s research and publications comes from foundations, corporations, individuals, the U.S. government, and from NBR itself. NBR does not conduct proprietary or classified research. The organization undertakes contract work for government and private-sector organizations only when NBR can maintain the right to publish findings from such work. To download issues of the NBR Special Report, please visit the NBR website http://www.nbr.org. This report may be reproduced for personal use. Otherwise, the NBR Special Report may not be reproduced in full without the written permission of NBR. When information from NBR publications is cited or quoted, please cite the author and The National Bureau of Asian Research. This is the fity-fith NBR Special Report. NBR is a tax-exempt, nonprofit corporation under I.R.C. Sec. 501(c)(3), qualified to receive tax-exempt contributions. © 2016 by The National Bureau of Asian Research. Front cover image: “Keeping watch at Baine Baba Ziarat” by Al Jazeera English, used under a creative commons attribution-share-alike 2.0 license. For further information about NBR, contact: The National Bureau of Asian Research 1414 NE 42nd Street, Suite 300 Seattle, Washington 98105 206-632-7370 Phone 206-632-7487 Fax [email protected] E-mail http://www.nbr.org nbr special report #55 | february 2016 mapping pakistan’s internal dynamics Implications for State Stability and Regional Security TABLE OF CONTENTS Mapping Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics: Implications for State Stability and 1 Regional Security Mahin Karim Mapping Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics Mapping Pakistan’s Political Superstructure 11 Mumtaz Ahmad Pakistan’s Internal Security Environment 33 C. Christine Fair Informal Agencies of Influence in Pakistan: 59 The Interdependence of Social, Religious, and Political Trends Matthew J. Nelson Assessing Pakistan’s Geopolitical Environment India-Pakistan Relations and Regional Stability 79 Aryaman Bhatnagar and C. Raja Mohan Pakistan’s Relations with China and Implications for Regional Stability 99 Jayadeva Ranade Pakistan’s Relations with Iran and the Implications for Regional Stability 111 Tariq A. Karim Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan and Implications for Regional Politics 123 Vanda Felbab-Brown Pakistan and the Threat of Global Jihadism: Implications for Regional Security 141 Husain Haqqani Pakistan’s Nuclear Proliferation and Its Impact on International and 155 Regional Security Dipankar Banerjee Conclusion Pakistan’s Complex Security Dynamics: Conclusions and Outlook 167 Vivek Katju the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #55 | february 2016 Mapping Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics: Implications for State Stability and Regional Security Mahin Karim MAHIN KARIM is Senior Associate for Political and Security Affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) and Research Director for the project “Mapping Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics: Implications for State Stability and Regional Security.” She can be reached at <[email protected]>. 1 his NBR Special Report is the culmination of a two-year research project by the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) that sought to analyze Pakistan’s internal security landscape and external geopolitical environment. Funded with generous support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the project convened an international teamT of experts to author the essays presented in this report. These essays were informed by a series of workshops and briefings held in New Delhi and Washington, D.C., in partnership with the Observer Research Foundation. Project Rationale Pakistan today represents one of the world’s most significant and vexing geopolitical challenges. Its geographic position at the nexus of the Middle East and Asia, its nuclear stockpile, and the strength and determination of domestic extremist groups make Pakistan’s future course a top geopolitical priority for the United States. Looming instability inside Pakistan profoundly threatens U.S. interests in regional stability, nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the eradication of extremism. An unstable Pakistan—a state that is riven by internal factionalization and radicalization, possesses a nuclear stockpile that may not be secure from
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