Adaptation to Climate Change in Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico
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Adaptation to Climate Change in Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico Bridging Disciplines and Scales with Scenario Based Integrative Modeling Joysee M. Rodriguez Baide Rural Poverty and Environment, IDRC December 17th, 2009 Study Site Location South of the Yucatan Peninsula and Campeche state. Altitude:30-360 m. Peninsula, characterized by absence of major river systems. Study Area: Calakmul Municipality Includes the largest area of protected tropical forest in Mexico (REBICA). Culturally diverse population (immigration from 26 states). Total population = 23,814 Livelihood mainly dependent in natural resources (extraction and land conversion for cropping or cattle ranching). Land tenure issues Natural Resources Very limited water resources Soils: in the elevated land (rocky, not very deep, high lime content). In the low lands (bajos were temporal flooding occurs) Seasonal dry forest. Rainfall variability in Calakmul JulyTotals Rainfall for Silvituc Station, 1952-2007 350 300 June Total Rainfall for Zoh Laguna Station, 1951-2007 250 1,100 mm/yr 200 500 450 150 400 100 350 300 50 250 0 200 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 150 Years JULIO 100 4 per. Mov. Avg. (JULIO) Linear (JULIO) 50 AugustTotals Rainfall for Silvituc Station, 1952-2007 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 450 Years 400 July Total Rainfall for Zoh Laguna Station, 1951-2007 350 300 350 250 300 200 250 150 100 200 50 150 0 100 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 50 Years 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Years Junio Monthly Rainfal, Xbonil Station, 1983-2007 350 300 Rain season months (planting- 250 200 growth time) downward trends in 150 100 general. 50 Total MonthlyTotal Precipitation(mm) 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year Other months some show upwards Mayo Monthly Rainfal, Xbonil Station, 1983-2007 350 tendencies (July, August) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Total Monthly Total Precipitation (mm) 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year 2 1,500 mm/yr 13,839.11 Km Three consecutive years of Climate stress 2007- drought and hurricane 2008- dry year in some areas 2009- generalized drought, forest fires. 2010- fires?, A sensitive system in a rapidly changing environment Main Objective Determine the main drivers and strategies that could potentially lead to successful adaptation to current climate variations and future climate change in complex socio-ecological systems. Decision Making Levels State $ Resource allocation Scope of programs $ Resource $ Conservation allocation Timing of programs HH Land Use distribution $ Program $ Development Crop Choices implementation $-labor Resource distribution Timing of activities Cash resources $ Land Use distribution Planning $ Infrastructure Land Use distribution development $ Water management Land Tenure Municipal and Distribution Local Questions Can the use of integrated decision-making tools: facilitate identification of factors influencing vulnerability to climate variability. help to devise more linked adaptation responses at both local and regional decision making scales? Organizational Structure in Calakmul State Government SEMARNAT SEDESOL SAGARPA CONANP CONAFOR PROFEPA SDR CTA- NGO’s- RBC Pronatura Calakmul B. Municipal Municipal Council Reserve Government Civil Rural protection Development 4 microregions Sectors Tourism Agriculture Ranchers Charcoal Chicle RBC priorities and OP More control over charcoal Ovoid illegal logging Illegal and subsistence hunting: Control on chicle extraction Prevent and control forest fires Reduce cattle expansion and negative impacts from slash and burn agriculture Water resources (wildlife and cattle competition for aguadas) Importance of Forest resources Freelisting and pile-sorting 39 families Income and subsistence 109 products mentioned Touris m Alls pice Charcoal F ores try ejidos C hicle Non F ores try Honey Timber 0 10 20 30 40 Bee keeping and timber: Importance of income generating resources for livelihoods 35 30 25 20 15 Importance score 10 5 0 Timber Honey A gric ulture C hicle Charcoal L ives toc k Xiate Income gererating activities Survey instrument to assess vulnerability and adaptation Family composition Socioeconomic indicators Current productive activities Changes in livelihood strategies Agriculture seasons 2009 and 2008 Natural resource use Land tenure, use, and cover Perception of exposure to rainfall changes, temperature increase, hurricanes Pest and wildlife competition for crops and livestock Water, availability, sources, consumption, uses, cost. Sample Criteria Longitudinal sample Expanded de sample 54 to include communities differing in their: land zoning, land tenure, 34 rainfall gradient, ethnicity, and productive activities 40 107 About 235 surveys Livelihood changes Diversification Charcoal-New weather independent More people wanting to have cattle and expansion of pastures Migration- temporal to touristic cities Abandonment of certain crops Safety nets dependency Diversification of livelihoods One household and diversity of activities Xiate seeds and Tourism Latex extraction Manikara zapota Peak of production 1940’s, Campeche 52% of global production. Market: US, then Japan and Europe 2009 dry no chicle was produced Charcoal as a response to climate stress Sensitive Crops Chigua Beans Corn Chili Subsistence crops Only temporal availability In some areas high competition with wildlife (wild hogs) Abandoning cash crops, prefering work as wagelaborer Mobilization and increased likelihood of losing subsistence crops Cattle producers in a sensitive environment Policies and programs as safety nets Temporal employment Procampo agriculture subsidy Progresa/Oportunidades Crop insurance UMA Migration Temporal migration in times of great need Young people leaving to support family We have land but can not use it and the yields have been bad for year…my son emigrated to playa and is boss forced him to carry drug, not even one payment he could earn, and was captured, so it is now in jail for 12 years. Water sources and specific use for each Development of Jagueyes for water harvesting Demanded by people Government supported initiatives since 1998 Jagueyes and Cattle expansion Growing in size and number 2008- 150 only zona limitrofe 2009- communal requests The water transport Xpujil Remarks Dual detrimental effect of crop failure and increasing water stress Regulations over resources and political marginalization can be greatly limiting adaptation options The added effect and frequency of climatic pressures will great challenge The goals of RBC to increase attention to communities, politically strategic position, and intentions to promote more local control over design of strategies present a great opportunity for the acceptance and effectiveness of the tools and information. Project Stages • Survey (longitudinal-same individuals as in 1997, 2003) •Participation in ongoing meetings and informal interviews with key actors about their views •Discussion and presentation of main results to local decision makers. • Model generation • Model validation and test Acknowledgements The people of Calakmul The RBC director and personnel IDRC friends and colleagues Mentors Marco and Simon and RPE team CTAP .