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Increased Activity and Employment Broad -Based Uplift (Oil , Manufactuering , Export and Larger Companies ) – Increased Pressure in the Labor Market

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Increased Activity and Employment Broad -Based Uplift (Oil , Manufactuering , Export and Larger Companies ) – Increased Pressure in the Labor Market Optimistism continues – increased activity and employment Broad -based uplift (oil , manufactuering , export and larger companies ) – increased pressure in the labor market BUSINESS SURVEY South Norway MayMAI 2019 Norwegian economy improving – businesses expanding and supportive consumer sentiment Norwegian business surveys Norway – consumer confidence indicator Norway Oslo and Akershus Statistics Norway manufactueringsurvey. Main index. Right axis Central Bank business survey. Production outlook coming 6 months. Left axis South and West of Norway Central Bank business survey. Production last 3 months. Left axis Trøndelag and North of Norway Oil price & activity have rebounded Oil and gas price. Spot and 3 year forward, USD/bbl Petroleum activity on Norwegian Continental Shelf. BNOK (2019 NOK). Source: NPD 400 350 300 250 200 BNOK 150 100 50 0 Oil price, spot, USD/bbl 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Oil price, 3-year forward Investments Operating costs Natural gas price (NBP). Pence/therm Other costs incl. expl. Total SpareBank 1 SR-Bank’s business survey Survey of 800 businesses in SR-Bank’s market area in South Norway, counties: Rogaland, Hordaland, Agder & Oslo area (from 2nd quarter 2018) Business survey including six main questions: 1. Development last 12 months compared to previous 12 months 2. Businesses expectations the coming 12 months • Employment • Turnover • Profitability • Investments • Order backlog • The indices are presented as a diffusion index (similar to most PMI indidices). Businesses respond whether key indicators will increase, be stable or decrease. Indices are constructed by taken share of postive business and half of share of stable businesses. Indices are therefore neutral on 50 (%). Higher than 50 implies more positive than negative business. Share of businesses (%) expecting growth including Oslo area from Q2 2018 Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 70 73 71 71 72 71 68 69 66 64 64 64 64 66 60 63 63 63 63 62 63 62 62 62 62 63 63 62 62 62 62 63 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 59 58 58 58 59 58 56 56 56 57 56 56 54 54 55 54 54 55 55 54 55 55 50 53 53 52 53 53 54 53 50 50 51 51 50 49 48 48 48 46 47 4746 47 47 47 46 47 44 45 45 40 43 42 43 30 20 10 0 HOVEDINDEKS*Main index* Economic ØKONOMISK dev** Employment***ANSATTE*** Tur OMSETNING***nover*** LØNNSOMHET*** Profitability*** INVESTERINGER*** Investments*** ORDRERESERVE*** Order backlog*** UTVIKLING** • Main index is average of the six subindices. ** Economic development last 12 months compared to previous 12 months. *** Expectations next 12 months * Hovedindeks er gjennomsnitt av seks delindikatorer. ** Økonomisk utvikling de siste 12 måneder. *** Forventning neste 12 måneder 1 Optimistism continues – increased activity and employment Business survey. Main index by oil exposure Share of businesses (%) expecting growth 80 Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 76 70 74 73 74 75 71 69 69 69 67 67 68 66 66 67 65 66 60 63 63 63 64 61 63 61 61 61 61 59 60 59 60 60 60 59 59 57 56 55 56 55 50 54 54 54 53 54 53 53 52 51 49 50 50 49 49 46 47 46 40 43 43 41 37 35 30 32 27 20 25 10 0 Main TOTALindex None* INGEN* UNDERLess than 1/3* 1/3* MELLOM Between 1/3 1/3 OG and2/3* 2/3* More 2/3 than +* 2/3* * AndelShare av of turnoveromsetningen towards som oil er andknyttet gas til oljevirksomhet 2 Oil-exposed companies most optimistic Business survey. Main index by sector Share of businesses (%) expecting growth Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q5 2015 Q1 2116 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 80 70 69 70 69 66 66 60 64 63 63 64 64 63 64 62 61 63 62 61 62 61 61 61 62 59 59 59 60 60 61 57 58 55 55 56 50 53 54 53 54 52 51 52 49 50 47 47 48 48 45 45 44 40 42 42 36 30 20 10 0 ManufactueringINDUSTRI Construction BYGG/ANLEGG Retail VAREHANDEL trade Other* ANNET *Other include public sector, private services, primary sector (farming, fisheries etc 2b Highest optimism in manufactuering Overraskende mange venter bedre lønnsomhet Overraskende mange venter bedre lønnsomhet Olje og eksport løfter utsiktene – lite påvirkning fra global uro så langt Olje og eksport løfter utsiktene – lite påvirkning fra global uro så langt Kommentar fra Kyrre: denne tekst og bilde Nuances in expectations in counties in South-Norwaysynes jeg 3 kan funke bra (en del andre varianter helt til slutt) JANUAR 2019 JANUAR 2019 Counties. Main and subindices (as of last survey) 75 Agder Rogaland Hordaland OsloOslo SamletTotal NøytralNeutral (50) (50) 70 65 60 55 50 1) Ec dev’t 2) Employm. 3) Turnover 4) Profitability 5) Invest’t 6) Order backlog 45 40 Growth expectations in all counties – also subindices indicate 3 growth (above 50- neutral) Lower unemployment rate ( especially in oil -county Rogaland) Unemployment rate (%) registered at the labour office Planned layoffs and reduced hours. Number of persons reported to NAV. 3 month rolling average 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Norway broad measure* jul.14 jul.15 jul.16 jul.17 jan.14 jan.15 jan.16 jan.17 jan.18 apr.14 okt.14 apr.15 okt.15 apr.16 okt.16 apr.17 okt.17 Norway Oslo Vest-Agder Rogaland Hordaland NorwayNorge Aust-Agder *Statistics Norway Labour Force Survey Key takeaways • Healthy rebound for the Norwegian economy in 2018 and 2019 – broad-based uplift including employment • Optimistic business outlook for 2019 • Oil, manufacturing and exports lift the outlook • Still challenges, but also many opportunities • Resilience, competitiveness and robustness • Key risks: spillover from global setback, lower oil price, housing market Appendix Global and Norwegian economy correlating (but Norwegian economy supported by oilrelated uplift in 2019) Global and Norwegian economy. Annual change in GDP (%) Global economy. Business sentiment (PMI) World Norway Oil shock. Not so shocking… Nordic banking Financial crisis crisis JP Morgen Global PMI manufactuering (main index) World Forecast Norway JP Morgen Global PMI service (prduction index) Norwegian economy has improved since 2016 Norwegian business surveys Norwegian business surveys. PMI Statistics Norway manufactueringsurvey Norwegian business. Main index. Right axis Index* Central Bank business survey. Production outlook coming 6 months. Left axis Index, 3 month average Central Bank business survey. Production last 3 months. Left axis Employment index *PMI in July «distorted» by few companies responding Interest rates still at low levels – next hike in Norwegian key policy probably to 1,5 percent in Q3 2019 10-year government bond yield Norwegian interest rates Key policy rate USA 10-year swap rate Norway 3 month money market rate (NIBOR) US yield-curve (10 year minus 2 year( 5-year swap rate Weak foreign exchange rate (NOK) & volatile inflation due to being a small open economy Norwegian foreign exchange rate (NOK) vs key currencies Norway inflation different measures. Annual change (%) Weaker NOK Stronger NOK CPI headline CPI core Imported consumer goods CPI 5-year average 1 27.06.20 Presentasjon text 6 19 Unemployment rate trending down and supportive consumer sentiment Norwegian unemployment rate. Narrow and Norwegian consumer sentiment indicator broader measure Norway Oslo and surroundings South and west coast (oil coast) Unemployment office narrow measure Statistic Norway broader measure (registered unemployed), actual Mid and northern Norway (AKU), seasonal adj. 1 27.06.20 Presentasjon text 7 19 Stable house prices in many counties (more volatile in Oslo) House prices. NOK per sqm. Average all homes. House prices. 12-month change Monthly 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Stavanger region Bergen Kristiansand region Oslo Norway 1 27.06.20 Presentasjon text 8 19 Disclaimer This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or to purchase securities, nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or to purchase securities, in any jurisdiction. The distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and recipients represent that they are able to receive this presentation without contravention of any legal restriction in the jurisdictions in which they reside of conduct business. Neither SR-Bank Markets nor any of its subsidiaries, shareholders, directors, officers, agents, employees or advisers shall have any responsibility for any violations of such restrictions. This presentation is not a prospectus and has not been reviewed or approved by any regulatory authority. This presentation should not be considered investment advice given or provided by SR-Bank Markets, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA, or any of its subsidiaries, shareholders, directors, officers, agents, employees or advisers. Each party to whom this presentation is made available must make its own independent assessment of the information contained herein after making such investigations and taking such advice as may be deemed necessary to evaluate its content. In particular, any estimates or projections or opinions contained herein necessarily involve significant elements of subjective judgment, analysis and assumptions and each recipient should make its own verifications in relation to such matters. The content of this presentation is not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. Each recipient should consult with its own professional advisors for any such matters and advice. This presentation contains forward-looking statements.
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