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An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging with Rural Crime Data ______
International Journal of Criminology and Sociological Theory, Vol. 4, No. 2, December 2011, 683-717 Model Uncertainty in Ecological Criminology: An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging With Rural Crime Data ___________________________________________________________________________________ Steven C. Dellera Lindsay Amielb Melissa Dellerc Abstract In this study we explore the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to address model uncertainty in identifying the determinants of Midwestern rural crime rates using county level data averaged over 2006-07-08. The empirical criminology literature suffers from serious model uncertainty: theory states that everything matters and there are multiple ways to measure key variables.By using the BMA approach we identify variables that appear to most consistently influence rural crime patterns. We find that there are several variables that rise to the top in explaining different types of crime as well as numerous variables that influence only certain types of crime. Introduction The empirical ecological criminology literature is vast and richly interdisciplinary. But there are at least three problem areas that have created significant confusion over the policy implications of this literature. First, the theoretical literature basically concludes that “everything matters” which makes empirical investigations difficult specifically related to model uncertainty. Second, there is sufficient fragility within the empirical results to cast a pall over the literature (Chiricos, 1987; Patterson, 1991; Fowles and Merva, 1996; Barnett and Mencken, 2002; Bausman and Goe, 2004; Chrisholm and Choe, 2004; Messner, Baumer and Rosenfeld, 2004; Phillips, 2006; Authors). Donohue and Wolfers (2005) along with Cohen-Cole, Durlauf, Fagan and Nagin (2009) note, for example, that the extensive empirical literature seeking to test the deterrent effect of capital punishment has yield nothing but contradictory and inconclusive results. -
Centennial Bibliography on the History of American Sociology
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Sociology Department, Faculty Publications Sociology, Department of 2005 Centennial Bibliography On The iH story Of American Sociology Michael R. Hill [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/sociologyfacpub Part of the Family, Life Course, and Society Commons, and the Social Psychology and Interaction Commons Hill, Michael R., "Centennial Bibliography On The iH story Of American Sociology" (2005). Sociology Department, Faculty Publications. 348. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/sociologyfacpub/348 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Sociology, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sociology Department, Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Hill, Michael R., (Compiler). 2005. Centennial Bibliography of the History of American Sociology. Washington, DC: American Sociological Association. CENTENNIAL BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN SOCIOLOGY Compiled by MICHAEL R. HILL Editor, Sociological Origins In consultation with the Centennial Bibliography Committee of the American Sociological Association Section on the History of Sociology: Brian P. Conway, Michael R. Hill (co-chair), Susan Hoecker-Drysdale (ex-officio), Jack Nusan Porter (co-chair), Pamela A. Roby, Kathleen Slobin, and Roberta Spalter-Roth. © 2005 American Sociological Association Washington, DC TABLE OF CONTENTS Note: Each part is separately paginated, with the number of pages in each part as indicated below in square brackets. The total page count for the entire file is 224 pages. To navigate within the document, please use navigation arrows and the Bookmark feature provided by Adobe Acrobat Reader.® Users may search this document by utilizing the “Find” command (typically located under the “Edit” tab on the Adobe Acrobat toolbar). -
TRANSLATING WEBER Keith Tribe1 Max Weber Became A
TRANSLATING WEBER Keith Tribe1 It [“Class and Status”] has never been published in English and is not included in part one of W und G, which Parsons of Harvard has translated and is now in English press. The son of a bitch translated it so as to take all the guts, the radical guts, out of it, whereas our translation doesn’t do that!2 After all, one could ‘translate’ W into New Republic style, or even New Yorker style (has not Mr. Lasswell done so?), but we should honour neither Weber nor ourselves by doing it that way. I like it a little clumsy here and there. Maybe W. didn’t etch so much as block out in charcoal; and in any event it looks better in English if one doesn’t use too fine an acid.3 Max Weber became a “founding father of sociology” in the 1940s, with the publication in English of three books: Gerth and Mills’ From Max Weber (1946); Talcott Parsons’ Theory of Social and Economic Organization (1947); and Edward Shils and Henry Finch’s Methodology of the Social Sciences (1949). These writings provided a foundation upon which the post-war social sciences were constructed around the action frame of reference and “value-freedom.” The idea that this canonical reputation is a posthu- mous construct has been broadly accepted since the 1980s; there is how- ever no detailed discussion of the reception process that might turn this proposition into a narrative possessing nuance and depth.4 The origin of this process is nonetheless clear: during the later 1940s American social 1 This essay draws upon, and elaborates, arguments developed elsewhere: “Translator’s Appendix to Wilhelm Hennis, Max Weber’s Science of Man (Newbury: Threshold Press, 2000), 205–16; “Max Weber’s ‘Conceptual Preface’ to General Economic History: Introduc- tion and Translation,” Max Weber Studies Beiheft I (2006): 11–38; and “Talcott Parsons as Translator of Max Weber’s Basic Sociological Categories,” History of European Ideas 33 (2007): 212–33. -
References.Pdf
REFERENCES (References to primary articles examined in chapters 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10 are provided in end-of-chapter reference lists and appendices or are mentioned in passing within the text.) Abt, Helmut A. “Some Trends in American Astronomical Publications.” Publica- tions of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific 93 (1981): 269-73. Agassi, Joseph. Faraday as a Natural Philosopher. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1971. American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1976. Aristotle. Posterior Analytics. 2. Hugh Tredennick. Cambridge: Harvard Univer- sity Press, 1960. Aristotle. Rhetoric. Tr. Lane Cooper. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1932. Austin, J. L. How to Do Things with Words. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1962. Bacon, Francis. The Advancement of Learning. London, 1603. Bacon, Francis. Magna Instauratio. London, 1620. Bachelard, G. Le Materialisme Rationnel. Paris: PUF, 1953. Baddam. Memoirs of the Royal Society, vol. 1. London, 1738. Baldauf, R. B., and B. H. Jernudd. “Language of Publications as a Variable in Scientific Communication.” Australian Review of Applied Linguistics 6 (1983): 97-108. Barnes, Barry, Scientific Knowledge and Sociological Theory. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1974, Barnes, Barry, and Steven Shapin. Natural Order: Historical Studies of Scientific Culture. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979. Barnes, Sherman B. “The Editing of Early Learned Journals.” Osiris I (1936): 155-72. Bazerman, Charles. “How Natural Philosophers Can Cooperate.” In Text and Profession, ed. Bazerman and Paradis, Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, forthcoming. Bazerman, Charles. The Informed Writer. 3d edition. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1989. Bazerman, Charles. “Scientific Writing as a Social Act.” In New Essays in Tech- nical Writing and Communication, ed. -
Mass Incarceration, Macrosociology, and the Poor 167
475421ANNXXX10.1177/0002716213475421The Annals of the American AcademyMass Incarcera- tion, Macrosociology, and the Poor 2013 The U.S. prison and jail population has grown fivefold in the 40 years since the early 1970s. The aggregate consequences of the growth in the penal system are widely claimed but have not been closely studied. We survey evidence for the aggregate relationship among the incarceration rate, employment rates, single- parenthood, public opinion, and crime. Employment among very low-skilled men has declined with rising incarceration. Punitive sentiment in public opinion has also softened as imprisonment increased. Single- Mass parenthood and crime rates, however, are not system- atically related to incarceration. We conclude with a discussion of the conceptual and empirical challenges Incarceration, that come with assessing the aggregate effects of mass Macrosociology, incarceration on American poverty. Keywords: incarceration; macrosciology; poverty; and the Poor racial inequality he growth of the American penal system since the mid-1970s has been concentrated By T from among African Americans and the poor. BRUCE WESTERN During the period of the prison boom, African and Americans were about six to seven times more CHRISTOPHER MULLER likely than whites to be incarcerated. By 2008, young men who had dropped out of high school were about 20 times more likely to be incarcer- ated than those who had attended college. The inequalities of race and class combine to pro- duce astonishing rates of penal confinement among black men with little schooling. Chances that a black man with no college education would serve time in prison were about 12 percent in the late 1970s, compared to 35 percent today Bruce Western is a professor of sociology and director of the Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy at Harvard University. -
The Disease of the Transition: Global Populism- Scholarship and Its Roots in American Modernization Theory
PSA – Panel: ‘Theorizing Populism’, Yannis Stavrakakis – 12 April 2017 Anton Jäger (University of Cambridge) The Disease of the Transition: Global Populism- scholarship and Its Roots in American Modernization Theory ABSTRACT: Few concepts exert more contemporary appeal than ‘populism’. Despite its dizzyingly large connotational field, its definitional elusiveness, and its normative duplicity, one point of convergence stands out for contemporary commentators: that ours is an age of ‘populist politics’. In attempting to grasp populism’s conceptual slipperiness, this paper will use a strictly contextualist method in investigating how certain uses of the word ‘populism’, mostly in academic milieus, came to define contemporary understandings. It will do so by reference to one of the most celebrated treatments of the topic in recent academic history – Jan-Werner Müller’s What is Populism? (2016) – showing how Müller’s primary conceptual axis, which posits ‘populism’ and ‘pluralism’ as oppositional political poles, derives its historical roots from American modernization theory. In the 1950s and 1960s, American political scientists such as Richard Hofstadter, Seymour Martin Lipset, and Daniel Bell first formulated this form of dichotomy in both historiographical and sociological work. Most of these political scientists harboured a strong resentment towards indigenous traditions of American populism, and their epochal work on ‘populism’ in the 1950s, as I will argue, still presents us with the matrix through which later elaborations of the concept are to be understood. * On the 14th of March 1956, a group of researchers gathered in one of the main conference halls of New York’s Columbia University. The group could pride itself on a rather eclectic membership. -
Edward Shils and the Intellectuals
The calling of social thought Rediscovering the work of Edward Schils Edited by Christopher Adair-Toteff and Stephen Turner Manchester University Press Copyright © Manchester University Press 2019 While copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in Manchester University Press, copyright in individual chapters belongs to their respective authors, and no chapter may be reproduced wholly or in part without the express permission in writing of both author and publisher. Published by Manchester University Press Altrincham Street, Manchester M1 7JA www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978 1 5261 2005 2 hardback First published 2019 The publisher has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for any external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Typeset by Toppan Best-set Premedia Limited Printed in Great Britain by •• Contents List of contributors ix Introduction: discovering and rediscovering Shils 1 Stephen P. Turner 1 The philosophical anthropology of Edward Shils 32 Steven Grosby 2 The sociologist as human scientist: the meaning of Shils 47 Thomas Schneider 3 The recovery of tradition 61 Lenore T. Ealy 4 Edward Shils and Michael Polanyi: the terms of engagement 79 Phil Mullins 5 Shils, Mannheim, and ideology 106 Christopher Adair-Toteff 6 Shils and Oakeshott 123 Efraim Podosik 7 Edward Shils on pluralism and civility 140 Richard Boyd 8 Nations, nationality, and civil society in the work of Edward Shils 154 Peter Mentzel 9 Shils and the intellectuals 171 Jeff Pooley 10 Edward Shils and his Portraits 191 Bryan S. -
Curriculum Vitae Bruce Western August, 2016
Curriculum Vitae Bruce Western August, 2016 Address: Department of Sociology E-mail: [email protected] Harvard University Phone: (617) 495-3879 33 Kirkland Street Fax: (617) 496-5794 Cambridge, MA 02138 Education B.A. (Hons.) First Class, Government, University of Queensland (Australia), 1987. M.A., Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, 1990. PhD., Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, 1993. Appointments Distinguished Visiting Professor, T.C. Beirne School of Law, University of Queens land. Daniel and Florence Guggenheim Professor of Criminal Justice Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2013 to present. Faculty Chair, Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2013 to present. Director of the Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011 to 2016. Professor of sociology, Harvard University, 2007 to present. Director of the Multidisciplinary Program in Inequality and Social Policy, Harvard University, 2007 to 2011, 2013–2014. Professor of sociology, Princeton University, July 2000 to June, 2007. Faculty associate, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, September 1993 to present. Associate professor of sociology, Princeton University, 1998–2000. Assistant professor of sociology, Princeton University, 1994–1998. Lecturer with the rank of assistant professor, Princeton University, 1993–1994. 1 Books and Monographs Travis, Jeremy, Bruce Western, and Stephens Redburn (eds.). 2014. The Growth in Incarceration Rates in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences. Washington DC: The National Academies Press. Grusky, David, Bruce Western, and Christopher Wimer (eds.). 2011. The Great Re cession. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Loury, Glenn and Bruce Western. -
Thickening Comparison on the Multiple Facets of Comparability
Secondary publication on the edoc server of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Chapter in an edited volume Thickening Comparison On the Multiple Facets of Comparability Jörg Niewöhner∗ Thomas Scheffer 2010 Abstract: This is the introductory chapter of the book, which provides discussion of attempts to use ethnographic methods in order to build objects of comparison and relate them to each other as a means of improving analytical clarity. Comparability is the result of the ethnographic inquiry, not its natural starting point. The authors in the book reflect the role of ethnographic comparison in putting complex worlds into words: they describe the process of and inquire about producing comparability, how they themselves as well as their respective fields get involved in this process, how this co-production succeeds and how it fails, how it meanders and how it becomes productive in a mode of doing comparison. Ethnographic comparison is analytical ethnography in a radical sense. This chapter presents an overview of how other chapters of the book are organised. Keywords: ethnographic comparison, qualitative social inquiry, sociolegal comparison This is the accepted manuscript (postprint) of a chapter in an edited volume pub- lished as follows: Title Thickening Comparison Subtitle On the Multiple Facets of Comparability Authors Niewöhner, Jörg; Scheffer, Thomas Date of publication 2010 Title of the edited volume Thick Comparison: Reviving the Ethnographic Aspiration Editors Scheffer, Thomas; Niewöhner, Jörg Pages 1–15 Publisher Brill DOI 10.1163/ej.9789004181137.i-223.6 ∗[email protected]; ORCiD: 0000-0002-9034-9761 Thickening Comparison On the Multiple Facets of Comparability Jörg Niewöhner Thomas Scheffer 2010 Qualitative social inquiry in crisis Since the early 1980s, qualitative social inquiry has lost some of its taken-for-grantedness. -
Globalization and Historical Macrosociology
GLOBALIZATION AND HISTORICAL MACROSOCIOLOGY Giovanni Arrighi Published in Janet Abu-Lughod, ed., Sociology for the Twenty-First Century. Continuities and Cutting Edges. Chicago:Chicago University Press 2000, pp. 117-133. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the ASA/ISA North American Conference, "Millennial Milestone. The Heritage and Future of Sociology," Toronto, Canada, August 7-8, 1997. Globalization and Its Contents History continually makes untidy the neat conceptual frameworks and theoretical speculations with which we endeavor to understand the past and forecast the future of the world we live in. In our attempt to cope with the "chaos of existential judgements" (Max Weber's phrase) engendered by events and processes that challenge our understanding of the world, we tend to deny or exaggerate the novelty of what is actually happening. Denial leads to changes in the familiar meaning of words. Exaggeration leads to the coinage of new words of uncertain meaning. Either way, to paraphrase John Ruggie (1994, p. 553), "[t]imes of change are also times of confusion." Some twenty-to-thirty years ago the main source of confusion in the study of the global political economy was the persistent use of the term "imperialism" to designate tendencies that in key respects were antithetical to the tendencies that had been the object of classical theories of imperialism, both liberal and Marxist. In a critique of this anachronistic use of the term, I underscored how the establishment of US hegemony after the Second World War had dissolved the very explicandum of classical theories of imperialism, namely, the tendency of intercapitalist competition to translate into open and generalized warfare. -
Historical/Comparative Methods
Comparative / Historical Methods A GRADUATE SEMINAR / DEPT OF SOCIOLOGY, RUTGERS, SPRING 2017 / 16.920.520.01 WEDNESDAYS, 4:10-6:50 PM, SEMINAR ROOM, DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY, DAVISON HALL (DC) Convenor: József Böröcz [email protected] office hours: TBA This is a graduate reading and “hands-on” research seminar on comparative-historical methods, geared toward the needs of advanced graduate students in sociology. There is, of course, no method without a theory, so this is, at least implicitly, a theory-intensive course. There is no thinking without comparing, so this material could be useful for all people who think (including sociologists). All social objects have historicity, so, strictly speaking, sociology of any time point, including the present, ought to incorporate a historical dimension. In sociology, as it is done in north America today, ‘comparative-historical’ is a label under which we tuck a very heterogeneous set of research practices that: - use more than one “case(s)” to address a substantive problem, - address some aspect of social change instead of stagnancy, - focus on places other than the U.S., - emphasize the connectedness of various geographically defined units of analysis, instead of separating them, including those that prefer thinking of such networks of connectedness as “systems”, e.g., world-~, etc.; - try to understand a social phenomenon anchored in a time point other than, or not only, “now,” - see the present (or any other time) as connected, in meaningful ways, to the past, and - various combinations / critiques of the above. This course is appropriately heterogeneous. In it, we discuss readings and do a set of exercises designed to enhance your skills in the comparative-historical “area.” The readings fall under the following types: (1) texts about various aspects of comparative-historical methods (research designs and techniques) and (2) examples as scholars employ those methods. -
Theoretical Sociology
Theoretical Sociology Theoretical Sociology A Concise Introduction to Twelve Sociological Theories Jonathan H. Turner To the memory of my dear friend, Clara Dean, who in 1969 began typing all my manuscripts and who, University of California, Riverside at age 85, retired in 2010 from typing, only to die in 2012. I will forever be grateful to her friendship and incredible competence for over forty years in getting my manuscripts ready for publication. Theoretical Sociology A Concise Introduction to Twelve Sociological Theories Jonathan H. Turner To the memory of my dear friend, Clara Dean, who in 1969 began typing all my manuscripts and who, University of California, Riverside at age 85, retired in 2010 from typing, only to die in 2012. I will forever be grateful to her friendship and incredible competence for over forty years in getting my manuscripts ready for publication. FOR INFORMATION: Copyright 2014 by SAGE Publications, Inc. SAGE Publications, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or 2455 Teller Road utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, Thousand Oaks, California 91320 including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage E-mail: [email protected] and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. SAGE Publications Ltd. 1 Oliver’s Yard 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP Printed in the United States of America United Kingdom Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. B 1/I 1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area A catalog record of this book is available from the Library of Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044 Congress.