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Sudan 2012 Scenarios for the Future

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Sudan 2012 Scenarios for the Future Sudan 2012 Scenarios for the future Jaïr van der Lijn Contents Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Methodology.............................................................................................. 2 A Sudanese future history 2009–2012......................................................... 4 Sudan in this scenario in 2012 .................................................................... 5 Suggestions and policy options for the international community in this scenario in 2012......................................................................................... 6 Border Wars (War – Secession)...................................................................... 7 A Sudanese future history 2009-2012 ......................................................... 7 Sudan in this scenario in 2012 .................................................................... 8 Suggestions and policy options for the international community in this scenario in 2012......................................................................................... 9 CPA Hurray! (No War – United) ................................................................. 10 A Sudanese future history 2009-2012 ....................................................... 10 Sudan in this scenario in 2012 .................................................................. 11 Suggestions and policy options for the international community in this scenario in 2012....................................................................................... 12 Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia? (No War – Secession) .................. 14 A Sudanese future history 2009-2012 ....................................................... 14 Sudan in this scenario in 2012 .................................................................. 15 Suggestions and policy options for the international community in this scenario in 2012....................................................................................... 16 Conclusions................................................................................................. 17 Main findings........................................................................................... 17 Reflections on the scenarios...................................................................... 18 Recommendations ....................................................................................... 20 Policy options to reach the most positive future......................................... 20 Robust policy options to be prepared for the future ................................... 21 Abbreviations CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement GoSS Government of Southern Sudan ICC International Criminal Court IDP Internally displaced person JEM Justice and Equality Movement JIU Joint Integrated Unit NCP National Congress Party NGO Non-governmental organisation SAF Sudan Armed Forces SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation Movement UNMIS United Nations Mission in Sudan Preface This report about developments in Sudan after 2011 is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of the Clingendael Institute, commissioned by IKV Pax Christi and Cordaid. Its purpose is to contribute to the debate about how to stimulate peace, security and development in Sudan and to present options for international action. The material presented in the report is based on input from a broad range of local and international non-governmental organisations, faith groups, politicians, government officials, civil society organisations and others, and was mainly gathered during workshops in Malakal, Juba, Bor and Khartoum in May and June 2009. We would like to thank all those involved in the project, in particular: the local representatives of IKV Pax Christi, Reconcile International and the al-Khatim Adlan Centre for Enlightenment and Development; the two workshop facilitators, Reverend John Okumu and Magdi El Na’im; all the workshop participants; the interviewees; and everyone who gave comments on the draft text. We hope you will enjoy reading the report and look forward to any comments or suggestions for follow-up. Jair van der Lijn, [email protected] Netherland Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ Nico Plooijer, [email protected] IKV Pax Christi Jeroen de Zeeuw, [email protected] Cordaid The Hague, 1 September 2009 The views expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of IKV Pax Christi or Cordaid. Executive summary The future of Sudan is uncertain. At present the international community, governments, international organisations and civil society groups are primarily focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and making sure an election and referendum take place. Consequently, little time is given to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on. This paper describes four possible scenarios for the future of Sudan, defined by two key uncertainties: 1) In 2012, will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? 2) In 2012, will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war? The answer to neither question is known; they both, theoretically, have two equally possible answers. The four scenarios are: 1. The Last War Revisited? (War – United) 2. Border Wars (War – Secession) 3. CPA Hurray! (No War – United) 4. Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia? (No War – Secession) Five main findings have arisen from the scenario exercise: First, it is very likely that the current situation will deteriorate and that violence and armed conflict will continue in Sudan. Conflict may be between the North and the South, and divide and rule strategies may also stimulate North-North or South-South conflict. Even if the North and South separate peacefully, they are likely to each have their own internal conflicts. In fact, even in the most peaceful ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario, small-scale conflicts are still likely. Given the likelihood of continuing armed conflict, it may not be wise to direct all long-term attention to developmental rather than humanitarian assistance. Second, although in theory all four scenarios are possible, the ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario – the only one that promises a less violent future – appears less plausible. However, as it represents the most positive outcome, it is worth pursuing as a strategy, while at the same time preparing for what might happen if it fails. Third, the organisation of free and fair elections is essential, not only to guarantee peace, but as the only peaceful way to bring about unity, as in the ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario. Fourth, continuous outside mediation and pressure is needed to get all parties to implement the CPA and to make unity attractive. For this to be possible, the time horizon needs to be extended beyond 2012. This is only possible to a limited extent, because the flexibility of the Sudanese system has reached its limits and deadlines, such as for the referendum, cannot be postponed indefinitely. The Sudanese need to talk about the post-2012 period, and also make the pre-2012 period more manageable by entering into discussions, for example, about what unity might look like. Fifth, the critical difference between a successful and unsuccessful outcome will to a large extent be determined by whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership. Introduction The future of Sudan is uncertain. At present the international community, governments, international organisations and civil society groups are mostly focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and making sure the elections and referendum take place. Consequently, little time is directed to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on. It is impossible to predict the future, but by developing a range of scenarios one can be prepared. Thinking in terms of scenarios has a number of advantages. Taking a normative approach, thinking through the main drivers and tendencies that lead towards an unwanted scenario – for example, one in which war restarts – means attempts can be made to prevent it from happening. Scenarios can also be used as a strategic planning tool. Policies can be developed so that in 2012 everyone concerned is prepared for different scenarios. At present, most attention is directed to making sure that elections and a referendum are held, none of which may take place. The scenarios in this paper are not intended to be a comprehensive overview of all possible futures, but rather a thought-provoking selection that cover a wide range of possible outcomes. It is, after all, very likely that none of the scenarios described will come true, but elements of them are likely to be part of the future. 1 Methodology This paper describes four scenarios for the future of Sudan1 within the parameters of two key uncertainties: 1) In 2012, will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? 2) In 2012, will there be a new war between the North and South of Sudan, or will there be no war between the North and South? The answer to neither question is known, but theoretically they both have at least two equally possible answers. War United Secession No war The four scenarios built on the basis of the above cross are: 1. The Last War Revisited? (War – United) 2. Border
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