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Forum: Security Council Issue: The Situation in Student Officer: Aryan Gulati ​ Position: Deputy President

Introduction The nation of Sudan has been subjugated by autocratic regimes since 1958, two years after gaining independence, whose policies have demonstrated a blatant disregard for the Sudanese people. Former president Omar Al-Bashir (President from 1989 to 2019), currently under investigation for war crimes, and , reigned over Sudan for three decades and was responsible for deepening cultural divides, marginalizing the Sudanese people, partaking in multiple brutal conflicts (including the genocide in ) and being unable to eliminate the instability and economic recession that plagued Sudan.

The ineffective and violent leadership of Al-Bashir culminated in mass protests and his eventual arrest by the Sudanese military. In the power vacuum that followed, the military forces established the Transitional Military Council (TMC): a body consisting of military leaders with the mandate to govern Sudan for a transition period of two years. Determined to remove autocratic regimes and transition to a democratic form of government, large scale anti-government demonstrations and peaceful protests continued, demanding the immediate implementation of civilian rule in Sudan. Negotiations on a power-sharing and transition deal continued until June 3rd 2019, when paramilitary forces rampaged through a protest site, ​ murdering, looting and destroying as they progressed, and leaving the protestors in a state of disarray.

The current standoff between protest leaders and the TMC is inching towards an end, with the first part of a power-sharing deal being signed by both sides in negotiations brokered by the . Regardless, international support for the Sudanese people has been limited, with the Security Council being unable to issue a condemnation of the TMC’s actions, whereas multiple member states have offered aid or otherwise assisted the TMC, leading to a strengthened resolve and capability of the military to thwart the pro-democracy sentiment that has fueled the current situation. The situation is a battle between the will of the people and the might of a government – it is the international community’s responsibility to minimize the loss of life and come to an eventual conclusion to the war.

The situation in Sudan is progressively deteriorating, with the government committing constant violations of human rights and implementing an agenda of oppression and aggravated violence towards civilians. Continued protests in the face of military lockdowns, egregious abuses of human rights and continued setbacks illustrate the Sudanese people’s determination to install a civilian government. Regardless of the political outcome, it is the responsibility of the international community to intervene in Sudan to prevent further losses.

Definition of Key Terms Inflation Inflation is a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy changes over a period of time. Periods of high inflation are characterized by a sustained increase in the average price level and a fall in the purchasing power of a nation’s currency.

Coup d'état A coup d'état, also known simply as a coup, means the overthrow of an existing government; typically, this refers to an illegal, unconstitutional seizure of power by a dictator, the military, or a political faction.

Transitional Military Council (TMC) The Transitional Military Council (TMC) is the current military junta governing Sudan. It was established on 11 April 2019 after the Sudanese coup d'état and is formally headed by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Inspector of the Armed Forces.

Totalitarianism A system of government that is centralized and dictatorial and requires complete subservience to the state. In this form of governance, there is no political opposition and the government monitors and controls the lives of all its citizens. Complete civil obedience is mandatory and there is no right to free speech or assembly. Coalition An alliance for combined action, especially a temporary alliance of political parties forming a government or of states. That is, when multiple parties temporary combine and work together to achieve a shared objective.

Autocracy A system of government by one person with absolute power, generally a dictator or a monarch. In Sudan, Omar Al-Bashir was the autocratic leader.

Darfur Genoicde The Darfur genocide refers to the systematic killing of Darfuri men, women, and children which occurred during the ongoing conflict in Western Sudan. This event began on the 26th of February 2003 and involved the militia terrorizing civilians in Darfur.

Key Issues Ouster of Omar Al-Bashir Sudan has, under the rule of Omar Al-Bashir, long suffered from a strained economy due to limited sources of revenue and harsh sanctions by the . This prolonged period of recession led to a progressive decline in quality of life and continued increases in the cost of living due to high inflation and limited economic growth. As the economic situation worsened, the Al-Bashir regime implemented austerity measures in an attempt to bolster the Sudanese economy, including a reduction of subsidies on basic necessities such as fuel and bread. The reduction, combined with the rising cost of living, prompted the outbreak of protests. Initially sparked by outrage due to price hikes, the protests soon took an anti-government stance, demanding the resignation of President Omar Al-Bashir and a transition to civilian rule.

On the 11th of April 2019, the Sudanese army orchestrated a bloodless coup d’état, successfully arresting ​ the president and establishing a Transitional Military Council (TMC). The ouster of the brutal dictator created a power vacuum, however, shortly after this gesture of support, military leaders turned on protestors, declaring a 2-year military rule from 2019 to 2021. This declaration is the cause of the current standoff. Protest leaders demanded an immediate transfer of power to a civilian government and the TMC did not comply. This resulted in continued mass protests and anti-government demonstrations throughout the city. The Sudanese people have made clear their determination in this quest for democratic leadership.

International Actors Until recently, international interests in Sudan complicated peace negotiations, with nations such as and the pledging $3 billion dollars in aid to Sudan’s generals, trying to bolster their forces. The autocratic leaders of these nations rely on the shortcomings of democratic governments and point to the failed that transitioned to the ‘Arab Winter’ to consolidate power and maintain favourable public opinion. The establishment of a successful democratic revolution in Sudan threatens to shake the foundations of the dominion of these leaders, hence they offered their support to thwart the pro-democracy movement brewing in Sudan. Additionally, nations such as the Russian Federation (see “Major Parties Involved”) that have geopolitical interests reliant on the success of totalitarianism in Sudan have opposed all forms of international intervention while supporting the TMC through aid.

Furthermore, the conflict in Sudan has stymied the tide of migrants from East Africa, much to the benefit of the European Union. The EU has previously extended financial support to Al-Bashir and supports the Transitional Military Council, despite its ruthless tactics. Military rule in Sudan would allow for continued reduction in migrant numbers and therefore assist the EU in maintaining internal stability. The lack of any condemnation and the possibility of support from the EU reduces the likelihood that the TMC will cease its violent campaign.

Human Rights Violations The international community has repeatedly failed in its responsibility to uphold the rights of the Sudanese people since the beginning of the Darfur conflict, when an investigation into former president Omar Al-Bashir and other military and government officials for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC) was suspended due to a lack of international support. Regardless, the Sudanese government, military and paramilitary forces have continued to commit atrocities including arbitrary executions, systematic , forced religious conversions, malicious prosecution and harassment of political dissidents and torture of prisoners. Furthermore, Sudanese people outside the Northern regions of the country (especially in the Southern parts of Sudan) have been subject to marginalization since the colonial era - largely due to British “divide and rule” policies. This historical disparity in development has fueled conflict and played a major role in igniting the crisis in Darfur. The ostracization of non-Arab Sudanese culminated in an attack on the government by insurgent forces. This resulted in a brutal ethnic cleansing program targeting the minority group.

More recently, however, human rights violations in Sudan have centered around a crackdown on protesters. On June 3rd 2019, after months of successful protests, Sudan’s pro-democracy movement was ​ battered and left in a state of disarray after a brutal crackdown by Sudanese paramilitary forces. Military forces tore through the main protest area, committing atrocities and murdering and looting in an aggressive crowd dispersal. After this massacre, the continue to use violent measures to spread fear and repress protestors, reports indicate that soldiers continue to steal from and kill civilians.

Quality of Life One of the greatest causes for concern, and a key factor that led to mass protests, is the abysmal quality of life for the residents of Sudan. Continued instability and brutal military tactics continue to contribute to deteriorating living conditions. Citizens live in a state of repression, fearing arbritary detention and torture by the military. Security agents detained hundreds of activists, protestors and members of the political opposition, imprisoning them for weeks without any charge. According to the , the prisoners were subject to ill-treatment, torture and deprivation. Furthermore, authorities have restricted access to media and arrested journalists, even cutting access during protests. In addition to freedom of media, the government has also imposed shari’ah law on non muslims, forced christian to renounce their faith and bring apostasy charges against people that converted religion. Additionally, there have been reports of using sexual violence against girls and women, especially in Darfur. Overall, the above factors contribute to a climate of repression and the violation of multiple human rights at the hands of governmental authorities. When combined with the political instability and economic uncertainty, the use of oppressive measures to control the people of Sudan has led to abhorrent living conditions in the nation.

Darfur Conflict The darfur genocide was the epitome of violent suppression at the hands of Omar Al-Bashir. The conflict began in 2003 when rebel groups launched an armed rebellion to protest the supposed marginalization of western Sudan. The government responded by deploying the Janjaweed militia to fight against rebels in Darfur. However, the militias also terrorized civilian populations in the area and blocked the flow of international aid to the region. Despite a ceasefire and the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force, the conflict in Darfur left more than 2 million people displaced and led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. Following the conflict, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Omar Al-Bashir, convicting him of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity and stating that the dictator bore criminal responsibility for the conflict.

Major Parties Involved and Their Views Sudanese Transitional Military Council (TMC) The Transitional Military Council is a council of military leaders established to fill the power vacuum created by the deposition of former president Omar Al-Bashir. It is headed by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, although Lieutenant General (“Hemeti”) is often seen as the de facto leader. ​ The objective of the TMC is simple: maintaining military rule for as long as possible. It has endorsed and organized multiple acts of violence against peaceful protestors and masterminded the massacre in – all in an attempt to end the pro-democracy protests that have shocked the nation since December 2018.

However, recently, the TMC has opened itself to negotiations with protests leaders and signed a landmark power-sharing agreement that will establish civilian rule within three years. The key points of conflict that remain are the investigation of the former Sudanese government and military for their crimes and the details of establishing the new government. Having conceded to eventual civilian rule, the TMC’s focus lies on securing its future within the nation by ensuring the survival of its leaders and choosing a docile government that can be manipulated to their will.

Saudi Arabia The Saudi government is a totalitarian regime, governed under Sharia Law. Decisions are made by the royal family in consultation with religious leaders. In such a nation, effective governance relies on public support of authoritarian regimes and belief in the futility of revolution. Therefore, Saudi political interests, lie in the failure of the revolution in Sudan. A successful transition to democratic governance stands to disrupt the status quo in Saudi Arabia, and other totalitarian and monarchist regimes; hence the opposition from these nations. Riyadh has been a site of refuge for the leaders of the TMC and has pledged large sums of money to their aid.

African Union The African Union (AU) is a union of 55 member states designed to achieve “unity, cohesion and solidarity” between African nations. Currently, the AU has acted as a mediator in negotiations between the TMC and protest leaders, creating an environment conducive to effective diplomacy and offering power-sharing deals that satisfy the requirements of both parties. Furthermore, in the only show of multilateral support for the Sudanese people, the AU has suspended Sudan as a member due to the military’s continued violence against innocent citizens. Therefore, the AU will continue its diplomatic isolation of Sudan until an effective civilian-led government is established.

Sudanese Forces for Freedom and Change The Forces for Freedom and Change is a coalition of rebel and civilian groups and now organizes acts of civil disobedience and is at the forefront of power-sharing negotiations with the TMC. Through this organisation, the Sudanese people have repeatedly demonstrated their determination to establish a democratic rule, and their unwillingness to accept further autocratic governance. After the power-sharing deal was signed, the main points of contention between protest leaders and the TMC are the investigation of military leaders for crimes against humanity and connection with the , and the role of Sudan’s General Intelligence Service and the Rapid Support Forces in the new Sudanese nation. ​

Russian Federation The Russian Federation has major geopolitical interests in the Sudanese region and has demonstrated its opposition of protestors overthrowing the authoritarian regime in Sudan. Russia, joined by China, vetoed a Security Council resolution that condemned the actions of the TMC and urged member states to call for an end to the violence. Russia’s foreign ministers have stated that Russia does not believe that international intervention can benefit the situation in Sudan in any way, contrarily, it believes that international intervention may “spoil the situation”. This resolute defence of the TMC highlights Moscow’s alliance with military leaders in Khartoum for the sake of its geopolitical interests in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although there are numerous geopolitical imperatives that drive Russian support for the TMC, Russia’s contracts with the Sudanese government and plans to construct a base on the Red Sea are of special significance. The military leaders have agreed to uphold the previous government’s military, energy, and mining contracts with Russia – all of which have been expanded in recent years. Furthermore, Sudan is the second-largest purchaser of Russian arms in the African continent, with 50% of Sudanese arms purchases in 2017 coming from Russia.

Overall, ideological incentives and geopolitical interests drive Russia to oppose the idea of a democratic, civilian government in Sudan. The Russian Federation has been vocal about its support for the TMC, delegitimizing the Sudanese people’s opposition to autocratic rule. Russia’s objective is to use the synergistic support of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to entrench the TMC within Sudan and gain powerful influence in the region.

Timeline

Date Event Outcome

June 30th, 1989 Omar Hassan Al-Bashir leads a An alliance between the army and Islamist political coup attempt against the then parties is formed, and a coup is staged. The government government of Sudan. and all political parties are dissolved. Al-Bashir appoints himself chair of the Revolutionary Command Council for National Salvation (which rules the country) and is named defence minister.

October 16th, Al-Bashir is officially appointed As president, Al-Bashir continues to consolidate power 1993 as the President of Sudan and establish himself as the autocratic leader of Sudan August 12th, The United States designates This designation led to economic sanctions being 1997 Sudan as a sponsor of terrorism. imposed on Sudan. These sanctions hinder economic growth and set off a chain of events that will lead to the eventual ouster of the Al-Bashir.

December 1998 President Al-Bashir dissolved the After a law was proposed to attempt to curb presidential parliament authority, Al-Bashir eliminated all threats to his authority. The President sets a powerful tone for the rest of his term, indicating that any opposition to his power will not be tolerated.

February 26th, Rebel groups in Darfur attack the The government deployed the janjaweed militia to quell 2003 government in an uprising. the revolt. The militia terrorized the region in a brutal ethnic cleansing policy that displaced over 2 million people This sparks the ongoing conflict in Darfur and led to the formation of militia groups that are now used to forcefully and brutally maintain order within Sudan. These militia groups were later repurposed to form the Rapid Support Forces – the paramilitary groups used to crackdown on insurgents.

March 4th, 2009 The International Criminal Court The continued conflict and brutal ethnic cleansing investigates Al-Bashir for program in Darfur escalated and is estimated to have Genocide, Crimes Against killed as many as 500,000 civilians. This prompted an Humanity and War Crimes investigation into Al-Bashir and led to the eventual issuance of an arrest warrant for the dictator. However, the Sudanese government denied all allegations and Omar Al-Bashir remained in power due to lack of international support for the enforcement of this warrant. July 9th, 2011 South Sudan Gains Independence Continued turmoil in the southern region of the country, coupled with the marginalization and underdevelopment of the aforementioned region, led to the eventual declaration of independence, separating South Sudan from the rest of Sudan. However, with this separation came the loss of oil income as the majority of oil fields were situated in the southern regions. This would later contribute to the sustained economic recession that Sudan would face.

January 2018 Government introduces austerity The sanctions from the United States and the separation measures leading to price hikes of South Sudan led to the loss of major sources of revenue. The result was a deep economic recession and high inflation. The Al-Bashir government was soon unable to fund the nation’s expenses. This lack of money prompted austerity measures, including a cut in subsidies and raised taxes. These measures significantly increased the cost of living and prompted a wave of protests across the nation.

December 19th, Anti-Government demonstrations Continued economic hardship leads to intense protests 2018 erupt across Sudan across the nation, initially focused on price rises and shortages, but soon shift to calls for Al-Bashir to step down. Security forces respond with the slaughter of dozens of protestors

February 19th, A state of emergency is declared Fierce daily protests lead to Al-Bashir declaring a state of 2018 in Sudan emergency within Sudan, banning unauthorized public gathering and giving security forces orders to quash any protests July 13th, 2018 Security Council This resolution extended the mandate of the unanimously adopts resolution peacekeeping force in Darfur until June 30th, 2019. The 2429 (S/RES/2429) troop limit was reduced to 4,050 and the deployment of a ​ ​ police force of up to 2,500 people was authorized

April 6th, 2019 Violent Response From A large sit-in protest reached the military headquarters in Khartoum to Large Scale Protests Khartoum. Over the next 5 days, Sudanese intelligence forces killed over 22 people in attempts to disperse the demonstrators.

April 11th, 2019 Sudanese army arrests Al-Bashir An allied force of paramilitary and military leaders arrests the president in a bloodless coup. The leaders then establish a transitional military council and announce that Sudan will be under military rule for 2 years

April 25th, 2019 Mass protests lead to the After the military rule was declared in Sudan, protests resignation of three members of continued again the leaders of the TMC, many of whom the ruling military council were under investigation for various war crimes and crimes against humanity.

June 3rd, 2019 Paramilitary forces violently The standoff between protesters and military forces came

rd attack the main protest site. to a violent end on June 3 ,​ when members of the Rapid ​ Support Forces tore through the main protest site, looting, torching tents and firing at unarmed civilians, eviscerating the protest movement and shattering ongoing negotiations. The RSF continued to control the capital with brutality, stealing from and killing innocent citizens at will. July 17th, 2019 Protest leaders and members of Over a month after the massacre in Khartoum, the TMC the military ruling council sign a and protest leaders signed an agreement aiming to monumental power-sharing deal. transition Sudan to civilian rule in peace talks brokered by the African Union, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia. The agreement involved details of power-sharing and the eventual transition to civilian rule.

Previous Attempts to solve the Issue Lack of International Intervention The international community has largely abandoned the values of multilateral international assistance in favour of unilateral interests when it comes to Sudan – the security council is no exception. Despite months of continuous civil unrest, conflict and breaches of human rights, the security council has been unable to demand a halt to the violence or condemn the actions of the military leaders. The deep divide within the council’s P5 nations’ international policies has been accentuated by the recent draft resolution, aiming to alleviate the conflict in Sudan. The resolution failed to gather sufficient support and was vetoed by Russia and China – thus maintaining the silence of the Security Council, and the United Nations as a whole. In many regards, the Sudanese people stand alone in their fight on the streets, deserted by the international community and left at the mercy of the military.

Peacekeeping Force in Darfur Following the conflict and genocide in Darfur, the African Union implemented a joint peacekeeping task force called the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), designed to monitor the situation, minimize the loss of human life and implement an agenda to stabilize the region. Although the mandate of UNAMID revolves around Darfur, bringing stability to this region would be a symbolic undoing of the divisive legacy of Omar Al-Bashir. Overall, UNAMID has been unable to completely halt violence within the region due to its predominantly reactive modus operandi and limitations in the nature of peacekeeping missions. UNAMID is unable to preemptively interfere, and hence unable to eliminate the causes of violence. Regardless, it has been effective in enforcing legal measures and limiting the damage caused by instability. African Union Intervention The African Union decided to suspend Sudan due to fears that the current chaos could plunge Sudan into anarchy of civil war.The AU declared that all diplomatic activities between Sudan and the AU have been terminated until a civilian government is established, further noting that a democratic government is the only way to reach an end to the conflict. Diplomatic isolation is an effective method that will offer a strong condemnation of Sudan’s actions. However, this action is only limited to the AU. Sudan is still a member of other unions, such as the League of Arab States. The African Union also acted as broker between protestors and the TMC, allowing for a power sharing deal to be signed.

Power Sharing Agreement On the 17th of August, 2019, after months of tense standoffs between civilian protestors and government forces, both sides have come to an agreement and signed a power sharing deal. The deal, brokered by the AU, is designed to allow a transition to civilian rule within the next 3 years. Mohamed Hamdan "Hemeti" ​ Dagol, often described as the de facto ruler of Sudan, has also pledged to abide by the terms of the agreement. However, the biggest concern over this agreement is the Sudanese military may decide not to comply with its terms when it is time. Therefore, strict international monitoring of the situation is needed to avoid further conflict on the matter, and ensure that the agreement is followed by all parties.

Possible Solutions Continued Political Discourse The multi-faceted nature of the situation in Sudan requires a holistic approach that addresses the socio-economic, cultural and political aspects of the issue. The focus of the international community should be to ensure a smooth political transition in Sudan while contributing to the overall development of the nation.

Reaching a consensus between the protest leaders (now the Forces for Freedom and Change) is of paramount importance to creating a stable political environment. Currently, an agreement regarding the transition of power to the people has been signed, however, it remains far from comprehensive. There are still many details that remain to be negotiated before a comprehensive treaty is signed. It is essential for protestors to present a united front, supporting a single leader rather than a divided group of anti-government demonstrators. This would allow negotiations to progress smoothly and allow for a quick resolution to the conflict. An agreement between the two involved parties is the only method to definitively end the conflict in Sudan. International mediation in the region should have the aim to broker a treaty and ensure all stipulations are respected by both sides. The biggest concern in the situation is the violation of the power sharing deal and the eventual refusal of the TMC to allow civilian rule, hence, the duty of the international community is not solely to broker an agreement, but to ensure that the details of the deal are followed.

Restore Public Order Ensuring that any new government is successful would require the restoration of public order. Citizens require evidence that the new government is fulfilling its duties. In the event of a transition to civilian rule, the new government can employ the support of UNAMID to ensure that the nation is able to maintain stability, from effective law enforcement to monitoring and eliminating governmental corruption and even ensuring all forms of violence cease in the nation. Furthermore, the new government should encourage the expansion of the public sector – creating jobs while providing services to all citizens. Additionally, the new government should focus its efforts and funding on addressing the issues of hunger, illiteracy, child mortality, sanitation and healthcare. Concentrating resources in these areas, combined with effective aid and NGOs working towards these goals will allow Sudan to rebuild itself and spur growth and development. Swiftly restoring public order and provision of governmental services would solidify public support for the new government and ensure the citizens that their efforts were not in vain, while beginning the long and arduous process of rebuilding Sudan.

Economic Assistance The greatest factor in igniting the protests that led to the ouster of the former president was the dire economic situation in Sudan. Therefore, any effective strategy to rebuild the nation must involve a comprehensive plan to encourage economic growth and end the sustained recession that Sudan has experienced.

The designation of Sudan as a sponsor of terrorism by the United States has hindered opportunities for foreign investment and prevented international trade from thriving in the Sudanese economic spectrum. However, after a transition to civilian rule is negotiated, removing this designation, and its accompanying sanctions would be the first step in the long climb out of recession for Sudan. Member states should remove all economic sanctions on the nation, and instead sponsor economic opportunities for Sudan in the form of international investment and aid. Encouraging foreign investments in Sudan and conducting international trade (Sudan’s main exports are gold and livestock) would allow for the economic revitalization of the nation.

Effective International Intervention In modern history, international intervention in domestic affairs has had varied results. Member nations should work towards a goal of universal collaboration and present a united international front with the objective of ensuring a smooth political transition and preventing any abuses of human rights. It is the duty of the United Nations and its member states to momentarily relinquish any geopolitical or unilateral interests in Sudan and instead take a moral stand. This would involve the suspension of any aid, training or other support offered to the Transitional Military Council in Sudan. Currently, many member states, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and have offered substantial aid packages to the TMC, bolstering its strength and allowing its continued dominion. Stopping the flow of international assistance to the military, and further condemning its actions, would demonstrate the willingness and ability of the United Nations to, where necessary, intervene, and end the long period of inaction on the part of the international community.

By implementing targeted sanctions against the leaders of the TMC, thereby starving them of funds and resources to continue their bloody rule, member states can effectively intervene to protect the rights of the Sudanese people and protestors. Doing so would offer a powerful condemnation of the actions being taken by paramilitary forces and assure the Sudanese people that they do not stand alone. Furthermore, as the resources available to the TMC dwindle, it is likely that it would be more willing to negotiate with protest leaders and reach a satisfactory solution. Furthermore, combining these sanctions with the diplomatic isolation of Sudan, following the example of the African union, would offer a strong condemnation of the TMC’s action. Member states must evaluate the benefits of this isolation against the potential drawbacks, but ultimately, it is the United Nations’ responsibility to engage in multilateral efforts to protect the rights of civilians across the globe. Additionally, it is of the utmost importance to prevent military intervention in such a situation. In the past, in nations such as Libya, military intervention against an authoritarian regime with a sizeable military force has yielded disastrous consequences. There is no evidence to suggest that Sudan is any different. Hence, effective international intervention would include targeted sanctions, condemnations, and a general lack of international support for the TMC, but nations should refrain from any form of military intervention. For the protection of the Sudanese people, it is of paramount importance that member states relinquish their individual interests and instead provide multilateral support to alleviate the suffering and chaos in Sudan.

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