Environment and Conflicts Project (ENCOP) International Project on Violence and Conflicts Caused by Environmental Degradation and Peaceful Conflict Resolution Occasional Paper No. 14, September 1995 Kurt R. Spillmann/Günther Bächler (Eds.) Environmental Crisis: Regional Conflicts and Ways of Cooperation Report of the International Conference at Monte Verità, Ascona, Switzerland, 3 - 7 October 1994 In the recent past, environmental problems have become increasingly significant in producing con- flicts. Especially in developing countries, desertifi- cation, water scarcity, and climatic change play a large part in the origin and escalation of current conflicts and usually act in combination with other factors, such as poverty, economic decline, over- population and political instability. Some 60 experts from all over the world met at the Monte Verità in the southern part of Switzer- land to discuss theoretical and methodological questions arising from this new research topic. They also considered case studies and proposals for peaceful approaches to the settlement and pre- vention of conflicts. Some of the valuable contri- butions to the conference are presented in this pa- per. © 1995 Center for Security Studies Swiss Peace Foundation and Conflict Research, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Wasserwerkgasse 7 ETH Zentrum P.O. Box 43 8092 Zürich - Switzerland 3000 Bern 13 - Switzerland Tel.:0041 - (0)1 - 632 40 25 Tel.: 0041 - (0)31 - 311 55 82 Fax:0041 - (0)1 - 363 91 96 Fax: 0041 - (0)31 - 311 55 83 ISBN 3-905641-42-9 Note to the Reader The Environment and Conflicts Project (ENCOP) investigates the relationship between environmental problems and actual or possible violent conflicts, as well as means to peaceful conflict resolution. The project management is represented by the Swiss Peace Foundation, Bern, and the Center for Security Studies and Conflict Research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Tech- nology, Zürich. Partners of the project are the Unit for the Study of Wars, Armaments and Development at the University of Hamburg, the Institute in Lagos, Nigeria, and the Centre for Development Research in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The ENCOP Occasional Papers represent intermediate results of the project’s work and other contributions to the topic. Comments and opinions are most welcome. Requests for additional copies of the papers should be directed to either the Center for Security Studies and Conflict Research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology or the Swiss Peace Foundation. Kurt R. Spillmann Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Günther Bächler Swiss Peace Foundation Contents I - Introduction Preface Acknowledgments List of Participants II - Papers Opening Address by Ambassador Robert Mayor ........................................................................1 · Theoretical Considerations From Environmental Change to Environmental Conflict .............................................................4 Kurt R. Spillmann The Anthropogenic Transformation of the Environment: A Source of War?..............................11 Günther Bächler Eco-Conflicts - the Water Cycle Perspective ............................................................................28 Malin Falkenmark · Regional Studies Milk and Honey But No Water: Scarce Resources in the Israeli-Palestinian Jordanian Realm....43 Nurit Kliot Core Issues of the Palestinian-Israeli Water Dispute.................................................................56 Jad Isaac China’s Environmental Refugees: Causes, Dimensions and Risks of an Emerging Problem .......74 Vaclav Smil Population Movements and Interstate Conflicts in South Asia...................................................91 Partha S. Ghosh Environmental Degradation and Social Conflict in the Horn of Africa.....................................109 John Markakis · Approaches to Cooperation and Conflict Resolution River Disputes as Sources of Environmental Cooperation.......................................................115 Katrina S. Rogers International Fresh Water Systems as a Source of Conflict and Cooperation...........................137 Peter Wallensteen & Ashok Swain Environmental Approaches to the Avoidance of Violent Regional Conflicts ............................147 Arthur H. Westing Negotiation Strategies in International Disputes .....................................................................153 Joseph W. Eaton & David J. Eaton Preface The examination of the importance of environmental factors for violent conflict is still a pioneering research area which has generated a great response within and outside the scientific community. So, it was a great honor and pleasure for us to organize the first world-wide conference on environmentally induced conflicts with sixty prominent ex- perts from 17 countries at such an auspicious place as the Monte Verità, the „mountain of truth“. The aim of the conference was first to analyze the relationship between environmental change and violent conflicts and to discuss theoretical and methodological questions. Second, we also expected proposals on how to prevent and manage environmentally induced conflicts. The conference showed that the exclusive reliance on case studies has to be overcome in favor of a more generalized approach in a theoretical sense and of a more practice-oriented approach in the field of prediction and management. Be- sides the one week’s fruitful presentations and discussions, the immediate interdiscipli- nary contact between conflict researchers, geographers, scientists and representatives from the federal government and NGO’s were an enriching experience for all the par- ticipants. This conference report, published in our ENCOP Occasional Paper Series, gives a cross-section through the conference’s presentations. The first section presents some considerations on theoretical and methodological questions exploring the linkages be- tween environmental degradation and conflicts. The first part is followed by some case studies that give an impression of the importance of environmental degradation for the conflict dynamics in selected regions of the world. In the third section approaches to cooperation and conflict resolution are examined and some mechanisms such as re- gional integration and negotiation strategies are evaluated. We regret that Prof. Thomas Homer-Dixon, too busy with his follow-up project, could not manage to submit an original paper based on his most valuable presentation at the conference. We therefore would like to refer to an article by him that appeared in „In- ternational Security“, Vol. 19, Summer 1994, pp. 5-40. It represents the main argu- ments of his contribution at the conference. We hope that our conference has been able to draw the attention not only of the scien- tific community but also of the general public to this utterly important research field. Subject-related follow-up conferences have been announced and promise a continua- tion of the scientific discussion and a deepening of personal contacts. Kurt R. Spillmann Zurich, September 1995 Acknowledgments The conference was essentially financed by the following institutions: Swiss National Science Foundation (Berne) Centro Stefano Franscini (ETH Zurich) Swiss Development Cooperation (Berne) Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (Berne) Association of Migros Cooperatives (Zurich) A private sponsor who prefers to remain anonymous We would like to express our warmest gratitude for their generous support. Conference on Environmental Crisis: Regional Conflicts and Ways of Cooperation, Monte Verità, Ascona, Switzerland, 2 to 7 October, 1994 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS Hans Alders Director Regional Office for Europe 1209 Geneva Switzerland U.N. Environment Programme Günther Bächler Director Swiss Peace Foundation 3000 Bern 13 Switzerland Wasserwerkgasse 7, P.O. Box Stefan Bellwald Research Associate Center for Security Studies and Conflict Research 8092 Zürich Switzerland Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Ralf Bendrath Student (pol.sc.) antimilitarismus information (ami) Berlin Germany Volker Böge Research Associate University of Hamburg, Unit for the Studies of 20146 Hamburg Germany Wars, Armaments and Development Dr. Herbert Braun Dr. sc. nat. Central Office for Defence 3003 Bern Switzerland Prof. Dr. Lothar Brock Professor Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, 60322 Frankfurt Germany Leimenrode 29 Henrik Bruun Göteborg University, Brogatan 4 41301 Göteborg Sweden William A.Cherry 249, route du fer à cheval 74160 Collonges France Karin Dokken Research Fellow PRIO, Fugglehaugt 11 0260 Oslo Norway Dr. Claude-Georges Ducret Head of Int. Environmental Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Bundeshaus 3003 Bern Switzerland Affairs Section Prof. Dr. Joseph Eaton Professor University of Pittsburgh, Graduate School of Public Pittsburgh PA 15260 USA and International Affairs, Forbes Quadrangle Andreas Eggenberg Adminstrative Director Green Cross International 1231 Conches Switzerland 160, route de Florissant, c.p. 80 Prof. Dr. Malin Falkenmark Professor Natural Science Research Council 10387 Stockholm Sweden P.O. Box 7142 Prof. Dr. Klaus-Jürgen Gantzel Professor Institute of Political Science, Hamburg University, 20146 Hamburg Germany Allendeplatz 1 Gilian Martin Programme Manager International Academy of the Environment 1231 Conches Switzerland Dr. Jean-Francois Giovannini Deputy Director Swiss Development Cooperation, Eigerstrasse 71 3003 Bern Switzerland Dr. Bernhard Glaeser Senior Lecturer Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung