Water Scarcity in Bangladesh
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01 2013 PRIO REporT 01 2013 Water Scarcity in Bangladesh Water Scarcity More than fifty transboundary rivers feed into This report presents the results of a colla- Bangladesh, effectively creating the world’s borative and multidisciplinary effort by a team second largest riverine drainage basin, the of researchers from Norway and South Asia, in Bangladesh Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin. approaching the issue of water scarcity in Since time immemorial, this river system has Bangladesh with a view not only to conduct supported and maintained the agrarian societies research on river water availability, but also to of the basin. These societies are now faced with help promote awareness and knowledge-sharing Transboundary Rivers, Conflict and Cooperation Peace Research Institute Oslo Research Peace Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 7 Address: Visiting Norway NO-0134 Oslo, 9229 Grønland, PO Box Institute Oslo (PRIO) Research Peace Water Scarcity in Bangladesh ISBN: 978-82-7288-485-6 ISBN: Jason Miklian Photo back cover: Scott Carney cover: Photo front increasing riverine environmental stress, while on river water management in the region. In demands for water continue to rise due to addition to reviewing bilateral agreements on industrialization as well as population growth. water cooperation in South Asia, the report investigates water scarcity in Bangladesh and Driven mainly by the South Asian monsoon explores institutional mechanisms and strategies and the complex dynamics of the Himalayan for basinwide and multilateral cooperation on the glaciers, the region’s water resources and management of transboundary river water. hydrology present great challenges for water managers. While there is still limited coope- ration on transboundary river water manage- ment among the countries of this region, many stakeholders are now calling for closer cooperation. Åshild Kolås Katherine Edelen Farzana Jahan Line Barkved Kristian Hoelscher Hari Bansh Jha www.prio.org Joyeeta Bhattacharjee Silje Holen Jason Miklian Water Scarcity in Bangladesh Transboundary Rivers, Conflict and Cooperation Åshild Kolås Katherine Edelen Farzana Jahan Line Barkved Kristian Hoelscher Hari Bansh Jha Joyeeta Bhattacharjee Silje Holen Jason Miklian PRIO Report 1-2013 Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Hausmanns gate 7 PO Box 9229 Oslo NO-0134 Oslo, Norway Tel. +47 22 54 77 00 www.prio.no PRIO encourages its researchers and research affiliates to publish their work in peer- reviewed journals and book series, as well as in PRIO’s own Report, Paper and Policy Brief series. In editing these series, a basic quality control is undertaken, but PRIO does not as such take any view on political issues. Researchers are encouraged actively to take part in public debates and are given full freedom of opinion. The responsibility and honour for hypotheses, theories, findings and views expressed in our publications thus rest with the authors themselves. © Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), 2013 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). ISBN 978-82-7288-485-6 Cover design: www.medicineheads.com Cover photo: Scott Carney Contents Abbreviations _________________________________________________________ 5 Glossary ______________________________________________________________ 7 Acknowledgements ____________________________________________________ 8 INTRODUCTION _____________________________________________________ 9 1. Water Scarcity in Bangladesh __________________________________________ 11 1.1. The Problem _________________________________________________ 11 1.2. The Project _________________________________________________ 13 PART I: BILATERAL AGREEMENTS ______________________________________ 17 2. The Indus Waters Treaty: Issues and Concerns ___________________________ 19 2.1. Negotiating the IWT ___________________________________________ 19 2.2. Disputes ____________________________________________________ 21 2.3. Debates within India and Pakistan __________________________________ 24 3. Nepal–India Cooperation on Water Management ________________________ 25 3.1. The Kosi Agreement ___________________________________________ 25 3.2. The Gandaki Treaty____________________________________________ 29 3.3. The Mahakali Treaty ___________________________________________ 32 3.4. Overall Assessment of Nepal – India Water Cooperation ________________ 34 4. Understanding the Ganges Water Treaty ________________________________ 37 4.1. Historical Background __________________________________________ 37 4.2. The 1996 Ganges Water Treaty ___________________________________ 40 4.3. The Aftermath _______________________________________________ 41 PART II: THE CASE OF BANGLADESH ___________________________________ 45 5. Trends in Rainfall and River Flows: Changing Ground Realities?_____________ 47 5.1. Rainfall _____________________________________________________ 47 5.2. River Flow __________________________________________________ 49 5.3. Conclusions _________________________________________________ 54 6. A Closer Look at the Padma River ______________________________________ 55 7. Stakeholder Mapping and Analysis _____________________________________ 61 7.1. Actors in Water Management Policymaking __________________________ 62 7.2. Actors in Policy Implementation ___________________________________ 64 7.3. National Level Stakeholder Analysis ________________________________ 65 7.4. Local Level Stakeholder Analysis __________________________________ 66 8. Water Scarcity and Conflict ___________________________________________ 71 9. The Politics of Water Scarcity _________________________________________ 75 9.1. Anti-dam Movements in Northeast India _____________________________ 75 9.2. Water Politics in Bangladesh _____________________________________ 76 9.3. From Conflict to Cooperation? ___________________________________ 77 PART III: NEW VISTAS OF WATER COOPERATION ________________________ 81 10. Multilateral Mechanisms for Water Cooperation ________________________ 83 10.1. Nile Basin Initiative ___________________________________________ 84 10.2. Mekong River Commission _____________________________________ 91 10.3. South Asia Water Initiative _____________________________________ 96 10.4. Lessons Learned and Best Practices _______________________________ 99 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS _____________________________ 105 11. Conclusions _______________________________________________________ 107 12. Policy Recommendations ___________________________________________ 109 Appendix I: Brief Provisions of Indus Waters Treaty 1960 __________________ 111 Appendix II: Kosi Agreement ___________________________________________ 113 Appendix III: Revised Kosi Agreement ___________________________________ 119 Appendix IV: Gandaki River Treaty _____________________________________ 125 Appendix V: Mahakali Treaty __________________________________________ 129 Appendix VI: Ganges Water Treaty _____________________________________ 135 Water Scarcity in Bangladesh | 5 Abbreviations ASA Association for Social Advancement ASD Asian Development Bank ASSEDO Agriculture Sustainable and Socio-Economic Development Organization BADC Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation BIADP Barind Integrated Area Development Project BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department BMDA Barind Multipurpose Development Authority BRAC Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance Committee BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board BWP Bangladesh Water Partnership CEA Central Electricity Authority FFWC Flood Forecasting and Warning Center GBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna GPWM Guidelines for Participatory Water Management GWP Global Water Partnership GWT Ganges Water Treaty HMG His Majesty's Government (of Nepal) IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICA Irrigated Cropped Area ICRD Integrated Coastal Resources Database INBO International Network of Basin Organizations IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature IWFM Institute of Water and Flood Management IWM Institute of Water Modelling IWP India Water Partnership IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management IWT Indus Waters Treaty JRC Joint Rivers Commission JWRC Joint Water Resources Committee LGED Local Government Engineering Department MOWR Ministry of Water Resources MPO Master Plan Organization MRC Mekong River Commission NBI Nile Basin Initiative NEEPCO North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Limited NIVA Norwegian Institute of Water Management NGO Non-Governmental Organization NHPC National Hydroelectric Power Corporation NWMP National Water Management Plan NWP National Water Plan 6 | Water Scarcity in Bangladesh NWPo National Water Policy NWRD National Water Resources Database PDA Pancheshwar Development Authority PIC Permanent Indus Commission POPI People's Oriented Programme Implementation PRIO Peace Research Institute Oslo RBO River Basin Organization RDRS Rangpur Dinajpur Rural Service SASTAC South Asia Technical Advisory Committee (of GWP) SAWI South Asia Water Initiative WARPO Water Resources Planning Organization Water Scarcity in Bangladesh | 7 Glossary Cusecs – Cubic meters per second (measure for water flow). MAF – Million acre-feet (measure for water storage). MW – Megawatts (measure for power production). Run-of-the-river project – Hydropower project