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Cover Journal Vol27 Vol. 27, No.1, June 2012 Asia-Pacific Population Journal Asia-Pacific Population Journal i Full text of articles available at: www.unescap.org/appj.asp ASIA-PACIFIC POPULATION JOURNAL Vol. 27, No. 1, June 2012 The Asia-Pacific Population Journal is published at least twice a year in English by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). The Journal provides a medium for the international exchange of know- ledge, experience, technical information and data on population-related issues as a basis for policymaking and programme development. References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this periodical do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or con- cerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The opinions, figures and estimates set forth in the Journal articles are the responsibility of the authors, and should not necessarily be consid- ered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. On 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became Hong Kong, China. Mention of “Hong Kong” in the text refers to a date prior to 1 July 1997. On 20 December 1999, Macau became Macao, China. Mention of “Macau” in the text refers to a date prior to 20 December 1999. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. ESCAP is not accountable for the accuracy or authenticity of any quota- tions from sources identified in this publication. Questions concerning quoted materials should be addressed to the sources directly. ST/ESCAP/2651 ii CONTENTS Page Introduction: Celebrating 25 Years of the Asia-Pacific Population Journal............................................................................. 1 Abstracts............................................................................................... 9 Articles Twenty-five Years of Transition in Asia’s Population and Development: A Review of Progress and Potential By K.S. Seetharam.................................................................................. 13 Empowerment of Women and its Impact on Population By Leela Visaria...................................................................................... 33 Youth and Their Changing Economic Roles in Asia By Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee................................................. 61 Changing Family Sizes, Structures and Functions in Asia By Gavin Jones....................................................................................... 83 Migration and Asia: Reflections on Continuities and Change By Ronald Skeldon................................................................................. 103 Repositioning Population Research and Policy in Asia: New Issues and New Opportunities By Peter J. Donaldson and Geoffrey McNicoll...................................... 119 iii iv Introduction Introduction Celebrating 25 Years of the Asia-Pacific Population Journal The demography of the Asian and Pacific region has recently achieved two significant milestones. The first is that the population growth rate for the region as a whole is now under 1 per cent (0.9 per cent) per year; and the second is that the total fertility rate has reached the population replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Although the demographic transition was in evidence in several countries (albeit at various stages) in the region 25 years ago, few would have predicted that it would proceed so rapidly and be so widespread. The rapid transition from high fertility and mortality to generally low levels of fertility and mortality in most countries of the region represents a remarkable success for public policy. It equally reflects the impacts wrought by socioeconomic development of many parts of the region and especially the profound transformation in the role and voice of women. From around the beginning of the 1960s, several Governments began embarking on health and family planning programmes that reached into nearly every household, or at the least every community. Those pro- grammes greatly increased the probability that children would survive to adulthood and they presented families with the knowledge, and in many cases the means, to achieve desired fertility goals. In much of the region this transformation both paralleled and resulted from the empowerment of women to exercise greater choice in their productive and reproductive lives. The international community, particularly intergovernmental organizations, foundations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) assisted national Governments with expertise and funding for their popu- lation programmes. National and international NGOs often played a critical role in advocacy and public information campaigns, and in demonstrating programme approaches that were feasible and successful. This special anniversary issue of the Asia-Pacific Population Journal is intended to both mark and reflect on these transformations. This is by no means an easy feat, and readers will undoubtedly be able to identify areas not covered in which equal emphasis may be placed. Nevertheless this anniversary issue of the Journal is distinguished by the quality of analysis and reflection on some of the remarkable demographic trans- 1 Asia-Pacific Population Journal Vol. 27, No. 1 formations that have characterized the previous quarter century in the region. In so doing, it builds upon a number of distinguished contribu- tions to the Journal over the past 25 years and provides an important marker for future analysis and interpretation of the trends that will very likely come to shape the next 25 years. The first article in this volume by K. S. Seetharam reminds readers that 25 years ago the overall population growth rate of the region was 1.8 per cent per annum and the total fertility rate was 3.5. Achievements in mortality reduction have been equally impressive. Expectation of life at birth increased from an average of 45 years in the period 1950-1955 to 69 years in the period 2005-2010. During the same interval, the infant mor- tality rate for the region was brought down from 142 deaths per 1,000 live births to only 41 deaths. These represent striking achievements for the region with regard to its demographic composition. In many cases what took countries in Europe over a century to achieve has occurred in little more than two or three generations in much of Asia and the Pacific. As Seetharam makes clear, these changes provide considerable chal- lenges for public policy in the region that now span efforts to reduce fertility rates juxtaposed with those to kick-start fertility in the face of substantial population declines. It is widely recognized that the changing role of women in the region has increasingly shaped fertility patterns in much of the region. Yet, while achievements have been widespread, the article by Leela Visaria in this volume serves to remind that they have not been universal and that improvements in demographic and health indicators have lagged in a number of countries. Subnational analysis also reveals wide disparities in many countries. For example, Visaria notes that the proportion of women who have married before age 18 remains high in some countries in South Asia. In 2008, the maternal mortality ratio was estimated to exceed 300 deaths per 100,000 live births in Bangladesh and Nepal, and 200 deaths in India, Indonesia, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Pakistan. Visaria also shows that, while many of the region’s women now have access to contraception and can practise choice, the prevalence rate in 2010 was less than 50 per cent in Pakistan and the Philippines and less than 60 per cent in Bangladesh and India, and unmet need remains high in a number of countries throughout the region. In countries that have achieved low fertility and mortality rates, some internal disparities may remain because of the difficulty in reaching some population groups, such as those living in rural and remote areas, ethnic minorities or persons with disabilities. Greater obstacles to pro- viding adequate health services may occur at the national level when religious or cultural norms or discord result in a lack of political will to make reproductive health services widely available. This reluctance to provide reproductive health services may especially affect unmarried youth. Given the immense degree of change over the past 25 years, however, it seems reasonable to expect that the coming decades will see 2 Introduction an increasing recognition that reproductive health services are a basic right for all women and men and that Governments have an obligation to ensure that all of their populations have access to those services. There remains much to be done in tackling such disparities however, and through doing so there will undoubtedly be consequences for the future demographic profile and direction of South Asia in particular, as Visaria makes clear. Youth and their transition to the labour force For some subregions, such as South and South-West Asia and islands in the Pacific, growing youth populations will continue to prevail for some decades to come but overall the proportion of the population in the ages from 15 to 24 years in Asia and the Pacific has reached a proportionate peak and will gradually decline over the next two decades. Regional averages
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