The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Integrated Growth Poles and Corridor SOP-2 (P164536)

Madagascar Integrated Growth Poles and Corridor SOP-2 (P164536)

AFRICA EAST | Madagascar | Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2019 | Seq No: 4 | ARCHIVED on 16-Nov-2020 | ISR42724 | Public Disclosure Authorized

Implementing Agencies: PIC National Project Secretariat, Republic of Madagascar

Key Dates

Key Project Dates

Bank Approval Date: 18-Sep-2018 Effectiveness Date: 08-May-2019 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 29-Oct-2021 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: Original Closing Date: 18-Dec-2023 Revised Closing Date: 18-Dec-2023 pdoTable

Project Development Objectives Public Disclosure Authorized Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective is to contribute to the sustainable growth of the tourism and agribusiness sectors by enhancing access to enabling infrastructure and services in the Target Regions of Madagascar.

PIC 2.1 (SOP1) has supported economic recovery by improving the investment climate, increasing investor confidence, investing in key infrastructure and restoring economic governance, to lay the foundation for inclusive growth and shared prosperity in the target regions.

Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No

Components Table

Name

Public Disclosure Authorized Leveraging private investment in tourism and agribusiness:(Cost $11.50 M) Removing key binding constraints for private investment in tourism:(Cost $32.50 M) Removing key binding constraints for private investment in agribusiness:(Cost $22.00 M) Project Implementation:(Cost $4.00 M) Immediate Response Mechanism

Overall Ratings

Name Previous Rating Current Rating

Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial

Implementation Status and Key Decisions Public Disclosure Authorized The project has disbursed 15 percent of its resources to date (USD 10.45 million), in line with disbursement predictions. The implementation of some project activities earlier this calendar year has suffered delays due to the measures imposed in response to COVID-19, including movement restrictions and closure of international borders. This has affected the project’s overall level of financial execution: as of October 2020, 46 percent the activities in the Annual Work Plan for 2020 had been committed, but with only a 14 percent rate of disbursement. Implementation of infrastructure activities have been the most affected. Nevertheless, following the easing of confinement measures starting end-August 2020, the

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implementation pace has picked up again and several delayed activities are being readied for implementation, most notably MIARY grants, road rehabilitation works in Sambirano, and water works in Tulear.

COVID-19 response and Activation of the PIC2.2 IRM Component: Following the Government’s request for the activation of the Immediate Response Mechanism (IRM) on August 10, 2020, to support the implementation of the Government’s Multisectoral Emergency Plan (PMDU), the teams have worked to design, approve and prepare for implementation a group of activities to mitigate the COVID-19 impacts on private businesses (formal and informal), particularly in the Tourism and Agribusiness sectors in the targeted poles. In total, USD 33 million of PIC2.2 funds have been activated for the IRM response, with USD 15 million targeted for activities under the PIC2.2 project, and USD18 million to be used by the Financial Inclusion project (P161491) to support the expansion of the Partial Portfolio Credit Guarantee (PPCG) Fund. Collectively, these activities will support Pillar 3 of the PMDU (related to economic resilience and the private sector). The activation of the project IRM was done by reallocating undisbursed project funds (amounting to US$ 33 million) to the IRM component of the PIC2.2. The IRM component activities to be implemented by the PIC2.2 project include: (i) provision of grants to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the tourism sector (the hardest hit sector so far), or groups/associations of firms, for implementation of projects that will enhance their resilience and competitiveness and prepare them for recovery; (ii) training for tourism sector workers to maintain human capital during the crisis; (iii) financing of key investments and initiatives to increase resilience and competitiveness of targeted value chains linked to both the tourism and agribusiness sectors; (iv); support to public and private sector tourism stakeholders in the overall management of the crisis, with a focus on support to the Ministry of Transport, Tourism and Meteorology (MTTM), and (v) financing of grants to SMEs in the Agribusiness sector for projects that help their value chains, including input providers, build resilience and competitiveness vis-à-vis the effects of the crisis. Design of these activities was done jointly with the PIU and related Ministries, in particular MTTM, with a final validation done with the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Several consultations sessions were also held with private sector stakeholders (business associations and individual firms) to ensure that activities being planned will address most important constraints faced by businesses. These activities are ready for implementation, but are awaiting government administrative approvals, specifically approvals for the opening of a Designated Account for the IRM funds. Project restructuring and Additional Financing: The WB team is currently processing an Additional Financing and project Restructuring request, in order to replenish the funds diverted for the activation of the CERC at the portfolio level and to ensure that originally planned project activities under PIC2.2 will be financed and implemented. The restructuring of the original loan is needed in order to (i) update the project’s PDO to include a reference to the IRM activities, (ii) update project results indicators (including targets for PDO indicators) to reflect the impact of the crisis on economic activity and the project’s crisis-related response[1]; (iii) adjust definition of eligible expenses under project activities; (iv) formalize reallocation of undisbursed funds to the IRM disbursement category, and (v) reallocate some funds across components/sub-components based on demand seen under current implementation and adjustment to COVID19 context. Component 1. Leveraging Private Investment in Tourism and Agribusiness Window 1 (MIARY grants) of the Madagascar Business Investment Facility (MBIF), intended to provide small grants to entrepreneurs, is currently finalizing evaluation of first wave of applicants, and commencement of grant projects is expected for early 2021. Window 2 (MBIF Agribusiness) has received unexpectedly large number of proposals and the selection is progressing well, and commencement of implementation of projects approved should begin in early 2021. Window 3 (MBIF Tourism), had been on hold due to uncertainty over COVID19 impact on the sector. However, it has been agreed that the window will now open on a rolling basis to allow more flexible submission and evaluation of proposals, in order to better leverage the interest/resources of private sector applicants during the crisis. Component 2. Removing Key Binding Constraints for Private Investment in Tourism Achievements against tourism-related indicators will be significantly influenced by the current pandemic, airspace closure and economic uncertainty for the sector. For instance, air passenger traffic was at a standstill from late March to early October, and investments for new hotel projects have been put on standby. The restructuring represents an opportunity to adjust targets for many of these indicators to take into account the impact of the crisis in the sector. The crisis and the lockdown measures have also affected the ability of the project to implement consultancies conducted by international experts given ongoing travel restrictions, leading to some delays. Finally, it has been agreed with the WB Transport group that while the PIC2.2 project may provide some targeted technical support in the area of air transport if required and agreed with WB Transport colleagues, the dialogue on these issues and primary engagement will be led by the WB Transport group, especially any discussions related to support for or Tsaradia. Roads rehabilitation in (V1 and V2 roads) and in Diego ( roads) have started despite some delays, as the contractor had difficulties getting their equipment to the worksites given the restrictions on movement of goods and people that were in place earlier in the pandemic; however the urban road rehabilitation in is delayed. Activities linked to water supply distribution in Tuléar are now moving well, with the tender for bids having been launched in October, after some delays in its preparation and finalization. Component 3. Removing Key Binding Constraints for Private Investment in Agribusiness International travels restrictions have prevented consultants from doing field missions [CQT1] (contracts signed in the first semester of 2020). This is generating delays in the delivery of consultancy outputs, thus limiting the availability of decision-making tools for proper identification and implementation of component activities. Support from the central PIU to regional PIU teams has also been impacted by travel restrictions. Easing of travel restrictions should help bring these interactions back to normal and support timely implementation of activities. Activities linked to the rehabilitation of the Sambirano rural roads are behind schedule due to earlier movement restrictions but should likewise benefit from easing of restrictions. Despite these issues, the project has already been able to provide support to a number of important activities: i) creation and operationalization of a multi-stakeholder platform for the public-private co-governance of the vanilla sector in the and the strengthening of the Regional Flower Observation Committee (CROF), which have enabled stakeholders to better prepare for the opening of the 2020-2021 campaign; ii) implementation of a digitalized traceability system (planter cards, collector and preparer cards) that provides real-time information on transactions in the vanilla markets of the Ambanja district, and iii) support to the operationalization of the National Vanilla Council in order to improve the governance of the sector. [1] Results and indicators reported in this ISR do not reflect the changes being proposed in the restructuring under preparation.

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Risks

Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool

Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating

Political and Governance Substantial Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic Moderate Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Moderate Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Moderate Moderate Moderate Environment and Social Substantial Substantial Substantial Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other ------Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial

Results

PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes

Contribute to the sustainable growth of the tourism and agribusiness sectors in Target Regions

IN00869680 ►Number of formal jobs created in Target Regions (Number, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 10,214.00 13,888.00 15,061.00 17,800.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 Formal jobs are defined as employment as reported by employers to the CNaPS. This is the number of new workers entering the formal sector in the targeted regions per year in the tourism and agribusiness Comments: sectors as declared by employers. The number of jobs is disaggregated by sector. Targets are cumulative. The baseline is the 31 December 2017 value cumulative over 3 years under PIC2.1 (SOP1). IN00869691 Of which in tourism (Number, Custom Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 3,554.00 5,293.00 5,477.00 7,300.00

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Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

IN00869692 Of which in agribusiness (Number, Custom Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 6,660.00 8,595.00 9,584.00 10,500.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

IN00869693 ►Value of private investment enabled by the projecty (in million) (Amount(USD), Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 The indicator tracks the amount of investment committed by supported investors using private financing in the form of equity and/or debt. This will include: (i) private co-investments committed from MBIF Comments: recipients; (ii) Supported PPPs: the private contribution will be verified through signed legal documents ; (iii) Agribusiness and tourism enabled through investment promotion activities, tracked through regular reports. Investments are counted the year signed commitments are made. Targets are cumulative.

Intermediate Results Indicators by Components

Leveraging private investment in tourism and agribusiness

IN00869697 ►Number of formal businesses newly registered in the Target Regions (Number, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 15,005.00 28,584.00 32,011.00 25,000.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 Flow data of registered formal sector businesses at INSTAT/EDBM/DRI, including sole proprietorships. Reported for the Targeted Regions. Targets are cumulative. The baseline is the 31 December 2017 value Comments: cumulative over 3 years under PIC2.1 (SOP1).

IN00869698 ►Increase in annual sales revenue for MBIF BPC recipient enterprises (MGA million) (Number, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 3,000.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 This indicator measures the total incremental sales revenue of project-supported businesses through the MBIF BPC window. Baseline sales will be zero for startups, or previous year’s sales for existing firms. Comments: Data will be collected from firms’ financial statements, subject to monitoring and verification by the PIU, on a yearly basis. Targets are cumulative. Sex disaggregation of sales assumes 40% of beneficiaries are women-owned enterprises. IN00869703

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Of which increase in annual sales revenue for women-owned enterprises (MGA million) (Number, Custom Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,200.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

Removing key binding constraints for private investment in tourism

IN00869696 ►Passengers traffic by air per annum (Number (Thousand), Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 1,296.00 1,502.00 314.00 1,735.00

Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 Passenger traffic includes all visitors by air per annum to targeted poles (Diego, Nosy Be, Fort Dauphin and Tulear, plus Sainte Marie) as well as traffic in Ivato International Airport in . This will ensure project adequately reflects increased visitors to the poles (not limited to tourists) and arrivals and Comments: departures at Ivato airport, which has benefited from the partial liberalization of skies and route development activities. Passenger traffic includes both departures and arrivals as per International Civil Aviation Organization definition. Baselines are as of December 31, 2017 (latest available). IN00869700 Of which at Ivato (Number (Thousand), Custom Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 908.00 1,054.00 190.00 1,215.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

IN00869702 Of which in Target Regions (Number (Thousand), Custom Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 388.00 448.00 124.00 520.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

IN00869705 ►Hotel rooms available in the Target Regions (Number, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 6,575.00 6,575.00 6,655.00 7,000.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 This cumulative number includes all tourist accommodation, (constructed or under construction) including Comments: villas, in all Target Regions. Baseline is the total number of hotel rooms in December 2017 in the Target Regions plus Sainte Marie. IN00869706 ►Increase in average daily tourist expenditures on products and services for overnight tourists (Percentage, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

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Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00

Date 01-Jan-2019 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 Tourism expenditures include accommodation, costs of tickets for site visits, local transportation, food and beverages, souvenirs and local shopping, etc. The baseline USD value of the average daily tourist Comments: expenditures on products and services for overnight tourists will be conducted in 2019, and serve as a reference for years 3 and 5 to calculate the percentage increase and compare with targets. By definition the increase is therefore 0% at baseline. IN00869707 ►Kilometers of urban roads rehabilitated (Kilometers, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 12.00 12.00 12.00 50.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 Roads rehabilitated under the project include urban and peri-urban roads in Target Regions. Targets are Comments: cumulative. Baseline value is the cumulative SOP1 end of project target, which is already achieved (from 2014 baseline of 0). IN00869708 ►Number of People provided with access to improved water sources (Number (Thousand), Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 250.00 306.40 306.40 325.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 Number of people who, under the project, are provided with access to improved water sources in targeted urban areas. This is the sum of the residents in neighbourhoods (fokontany) where improved water Comments: sources are available. Improved water sources includes piped household connections and community water points. Targets are cumulative. Baseline value is the cumulative SOP1 end of project target, which is on track to be achieved (from 2014 baseline of 0). IN00869709 ►Percentage of municipal budgets executed for investment by targeted municipalities (Percentage, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.00

Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 The share of the annual budget of the seven urban communes supported by the project spent on investment in and repair and maintenance of public infrastructures. This indicator captures results of Comments: project support to municipalities to improve local governance, increase financial revenues and improve capacity to maintain rehabilitated infrastructure. Baseline value is as of December 31, 2016 (latest available executed budget value), from a SOP1 baseline of close to 0. IN00869710 ►Annual municipal revenues collected in the supported municipalities (MGA billion) (Number, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 5.72 7.77 10.98 6.85

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

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Municipal revenues are the amount of money collected by municipalities (communes) every year, excluding state subsidies. This includes all 75 communes in the target regions, rural (68) and urban (7). Comments: The targets measure the cumulative increase in annual revenues. Baseline value as of December 2017 (latest available). IN00869711 Of which urban (Number, Custom Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 3.75 6.31 7.20 4.60

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

IN00869712 Of which rural (Number, Custom Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 1.97 1.46 3.78 2.25

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

Removing key binding constraints for private investment in agribusiness

IN00869695 ►Increase in the value of exports of the selected crops in the Target Regions (US$ million) (Amount(USD), Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 0.68 0.00 11.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 The indicator measures the cumulative increase in the value of exported volumes (measured in US$ using constant value of 2017). * The actual value of exported crops in US$ (taking into account price volatility) Comments: will also be tracked internally and reported along with this indicator at each ISR. * A set of indicators for internal tracking will also be established to monitor quality improvements in the key supported value chains (i. e average unit value of exports). IN00869699 Of which cocoa (Amount(USD), Corporate Breakdown)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 11.03 0.00 5.45

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023

IN00869701 ►Increase in revenues from target cash crop production for smallholders in the Target Regions (MGA billion) (Number, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 1.01 0.00 8.00

Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2024 Smallholders supported by the Project are defined as follows: smallholders producing or processing one or more of the targeted cash crops in the poles and corridors and receiving project interventions (training Comments: and/or inputs). Crops supported may be added or removed throughout the project. The targets measure cumulative increase in annual revenues earned by supported smallholders’ sale of target crops

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IN00869704 ►Kilometers of rural roads rehabilitated (Kilometers, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.00

Date 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2023 Rural roads rehabilitated by the project include rural access, feeder, market, agricultural, irrigation, Comments: forestry, or community roads. Roads must have a maintenance plans with earmarked funds in place managed by local institutions, organizations or PPPs to be counted.

Project Implementation

IN00869694 ►Percentage of registered complaints that have been addressed by the project (Percentage, Custom)

Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target

Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00

Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Aug-2020 29-Dec-2023 Complaints are to be tracked through a formal, institutionalized, project grievance redress mechanism (GRM). Addressing a complaint entails efficiently and effectively responding to queries and resolving Comments: implementation problems. The indicator measures the share of complaints addressed by the project compared to the number of complaints logged by the end of each calendar year.

Performance-Based Conditions

Data on Financial Performance

Disbursements (by loan)

Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed

P164536 IDA-63150 Effective USD 70.00 70.00 0.00 10.45 59.96 15%

Key Dates (by loan)

Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date

P164536 IDA-63150 Effective 18-Sep-2018 24-Oct-2018 08-May-2019 18-Dec-2023 18-Dec-2023

Cumulative Disbursements

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PBC Disbursement

Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC

Restructuring History

There has been no restructuring to date.

Related Project(s)

P175172-Additional Financing to Madagascar Integrated Growth Poles and Corridor SOP2

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