IRI Index Pakistan Public Opinion Survey January 19-29, 2008 Survey Methodology
• In-person, in-home interview • National representative sample of adult resident of Pakistan • n =3,485 • Conducted between January 19-29, 2008 • Margin of error ±1.69 percent overall • Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO) • A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage eachdistrict was further stratified by Union Councils. • The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas, Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post- weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province. • The eligibility criteria is age, which for this survey is 18 years and above. • The response rate was just over 90 percent. • Interview teams were comprised of both males and females;the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. • The Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error. Survey Demographics
Male 61% Female 39% Monthly Household Income Up to Rs 3,000 6% Urban 32% Rural 68% Rs 3,001 œ 10,000 54% Age Rs 10,001 œ 15,000 23% Up to 25 26% Rs 15,001 œ 25,000 8% 26-35 37% More than Rs 25,000 3% 36-50 31% Language 50+ 6% Urdu 8% Education Punjabi 44% Illiterate 21% Pashto 12% Primary 15% Middle 16% Sindhi 17% Matric 26% Seraiki 9% Intermediate 12% Hindko 5% Graduate 7% Balochi 3% MA/Prof‘l 2% Other 3% SOCIAL INDICATORS Do you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
90% 84% 80% 73% 70% 70% 60% 59% 46% 50% 44% 44% 40% 43% 43% 33% 30% 38% 26%
20% 19% 15% 10%
0% June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Poll Poll Poll Poll Poll Poll Poll
Right Direction Wrong Direction In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, worsened or stayed the same?
80%
70% 72%
60%
50% 56% 51%
40% 34% 35% 33% 34% 30% 24% 25% 30% 29% 20% 23% 14% 19% 13% 10% 4% 3% 1% 3% 0% 1% Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
Better Worse Same DK/NR Thinking about next year, do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to get better, get worse or stay the same?
60%
50% 48% 41% 40% 34% 34% 33% 31% 31% 30% 30% 28% 30% 30% 27% 26% 28% 18% 22% 20% 20% 21% 15% 23% 20% 20% 13% 18% 18% 18% 10% 14% 12%
0% June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
Better Worse Same DK/NR Agree or Disagree? I feel more secure this year than I did last year.
3% Jan-08 85% 12%
7% Nov-07 66% 27%
12% Sept-07 65% 23%
6% June 07 56% 39%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues that are important to you?
Very good Good Poor Very poor DK/NR
3% 6% 18% Good
12%
52%
28%
80% Poor In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important to you?
90%
80% 75% 80%
70% 61% 58% 68% 60%
50%
40% 31% 34% 38% 30%
20% 22% 18% 10%
0% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
Good Poor Would you say that the ruling coalition has done a good enough job to deserve re-election?
9% 29% Yes No DK/NR
62% Issues When it come to casting your vote in the next election, which one of these issues determine which party you will vote for?
Inflation 55%
Unemployment 15%
Poverty 6%
Terrorism 12%
Electricity and water 1%
Education 1%
Corruption 1%
Law and order 6%
Development 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Agree or Disagree? The shortages of wheat, petrol, natural gas, and electricity are a serious problem.
5% 94% 1%
0% 50% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/N R Do you agree or disagree that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has weakened the federation?
6% 1%
Agree Disagree DK/NR
93% President Musharraf says that Al-Qaeda was responsible for Benazir Bhutto‘s death, while some people are saying that the government itself was involved. Which do you think is more correct?
25% 13%
62%
Al-Q aeda Govern m en t DK/N R Agree or Disagree? Religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan.
Jan-08 73% 24% 2%
Nov-07 66% 31% 3%
Sept-07 74% 21% 5%
June-07 64% 21% 16%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR Agree or Disagree? The Taliban and Al-Qaeda operating in Pakistan is a serious problem.
Jan-08 65% 32% 4%
Nov-07 63% 34% 4%
Sept-07 57% 33% 10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR Agree or Disagree? I support the Army fighting the extremists in the Northwest Frontier Province and Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
Jan-08 33% 64% 3%
Nov-07 40% 56% 4%
Sept-07 28% 63% 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR Do you think that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States on its war against terror?
100%
90% 83% 89% 80% 82% 70% 63% 60% 46% 47% 50%
40% 43% 38% 30% 32% 15% 15% 20% 11% 12% 10% 5% 3% 9% 0% 5% 2% Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
Agree Disagree DK/NR INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS How would you rate each of the following institutions? % 8 8 % % % % % 2 % 2 0 0 0 8 % 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 % % % % 0 % 8 8 % % 7 7 7 % % 6 6 5 5 6 % 6 4 4 % 6 % 6 2 6 6 % 0 0 6 % % 8 6 % % 6 7 5 5 5 5 5 % % % 5 % % 5 5 % % % % 1 1 1 % % 0 0 % 9 % % 9 9 9 % 5 5 5 8 8 5 5 7 7 7 4 4 4 4 6 4 4 4 % % 4 4 4 % % 2 2 1 1 4 4 4 4 % 4 %% %% 3 %% %% 00 %% 99 88 88 33 77 %% 22 %% 22 22 22 44 33 22 22 % 3 1 l t s a e l y y n n s t i a l c n a o o e r c i m b d i i e n i i l n t r u s t e t o i o o m i m s r i o A i l s i t P e M t a n C o o c s a r P m s e P p e l N A p v m E o o O C G
Sep-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 How has the performance of President Musharraf affected your opinion of the Army ?
14% 13%
16%
57%
Higher opinion of the Army No change in opinion Lower opinion of the Army DK/NR Agree or Disagree: The Army should have no role in the civilian government.
1% 30%
69%
Agree Disagree DK/NR Leadership Index Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Musharraf is doing?
80%
70% 72% 62% 60% 63% 60% 60% 54% 50% 49%
40% 34% 30% 30% 23% 22% 26% 20% 21% 15% 10%
0% June-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
Approve Disapprove Some people have called for the resignation of President Musharraf. Do you think he should resign?
6% 3% 16% Yes No Maybe DK/NR
75% Which one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing Pakistan? (in past polls respondents picked names from a list, in this poll the question was open-ended therefore some responses appear for the first time) 40% 36% 35% 32% 32% 30% 28% 27% 24% 25% 25% 23% 20% 23% 21% 17% 15% 16% 14% 14% 15% 10% 7% 6% 8% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% 3% 3 % 0% 3 % 2% 1% 2 % 2 % 2% 1% 1% 0 % 0 % 0% 0 % June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
Mahkdom Amin Fahim Pervez Musharraf Nawaz Sharif Fazal-ur Rehman Qazi Hussain Imran Khan Altaf Hussein Bilawal Bhutto Pervez Elahi Which one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing Pakistan? (by province) 60% 57% 50%
40% 31% 25% 27% 30% 24% 21% 20% 20% 15% 11% 13% 8% 9%8% 10% 4% 4% 6% 6% 2% 0% Punjab +/- 2.27 Sindh +/- 3.43 NW FP +/- 4.54 Balochistan +/- 6.78
Makhdom Amin Fahim Pervez Musharraf
Nawaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto
Pervez Elahi Altaf Hussain How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 55%
50%
40% 32% 30%
20%
10%
0% Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) Javed Hashmi (PML-N)
Favorable How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100% 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 55% 50% 40% 34% 37% 37% 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% Bilawal Makhdom Shah Asif Yousaf Aitzaz Bhutto Amin Mahmood Zardari Raza Gilani Ahsan (PPP) Fahim Qureshi (PPP) (PPP) (PPP) (PPP) (PPP)
Favorable How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100%
90% 80%
70% 60%
50%
40% 30% 16% 20% 12% 12% 14% 10%
0% Pervez Musharraf Mushahid Chaudhry Pervez Elahi (PML-Q) Hussain (PML-Q) Shujaat Hussain (PML-Q) (PML-Q)
Favorable How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 49% 50%
40%
30% 25% 18% 20%
10%
0% Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani Mohammad Mian Iftikhar M. Chaudhry Soomro
Favorable ELECTIONS What is your primary source of information about the coming elections?
TV 64%
Newspaper 18%
Banners/Posters 6%
Radio 3%
Rallies 2%
Candidate visits 3%
Friends and family 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% If elections for national assembly were held this weekend how likely is it that you would vote?
100% 1% 1% 2% 3% 6% 5% 5% 8% 6% 10% 7% 90% 17% 13% 11% 80% 70% 60% 50% 94% 93% 89% 90% 40% 78% 82% 82% 30% 20% 10% 0% June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
Very/Somewhat Not very/Not at all DK/NR Pakistan‘s parliamentary elections have been delayed from January 8 until February 18. Do you support this delay?
3% 3%
Yes No DK/NR Maybe 43% 51% President Musharraf says that the elections were delayed due to the violence after Bhutto‘s death. The opposition parties are saying that Musharraf delayed the elections because he feared that PML-Q would not win. Which do you think is more correct? 4%
Due to fear that PML-Q will lose 39% Due to violence 57%
DK/NR Would you support the further postponement of elections for up to a year?
4% 11% 85%
0% 50% 100% Support Oppose DK/NR If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote?
60%
50% 50%
40% 36% 32% 30% 30% 27% 26% 25% 23% 28% 22% 24% 22% 23% 20% 22% 19% 19% 16% 14% 14% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
PPP PML-Q PML-N MMA MQM DK/NR If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-PUNJAB +/- 2.27)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
PPP 17% 22% 14% 24% 44%
PML-Q 30% 27% 21% 30% 19%
PML-N 23% 30% 54% 36% 32% If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-SINDH +/- 3.43)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
PPP 57% 60% 64% 50% 74%
PML-Q 9% 14% 8% 16% 5%
PML-N 3% 4% 4% 6% 4%
MQM 11% 6% 5% 6% 5% If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-NWFP +/- 4.54)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
PPP 12% 25% 17% 16% 37%
PML-Q 18% 20% 17% 10% 6%
PML-N 9% 11% 27% 27% 18%
MMA 10% 9% 10% 6% 4%
ANP 7% 7% 3% 7% 12% If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-BALOCHISTAN +/- 6.78)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
PPP 22% 34% 29% 40% 44%
PML-Q 44% 27% 12% 16% 15%
PML-N 1% 1% 9% 5% 6%
MMA 9% 20% 15% 15% 4% If the elections for the national assembly are free and fair, which party do you believe will win the most seats?
60%
50% 58%
40% PPP PML-N 30% PML-Q 20% DK/NR 22% 10% 13% 7% 0% If, after the elections are held, it is announced that PML-Q won the most seats, would you think that the election was free and fair or that it was rigged?
6% 15%
79%
Free and Fair Rigged DK/NR Opposition parties are saying that if the election is rigged, they will —go to the streets“ in protest. If it is announced that PML-Q won the most seats, would you support protests against the government? 60% 55%
50% Yes
No 40% Maybe 30% DK/NR 23% 20% 15%
10% 8%
0% Would you support the following scenario: President Musharraf resigns, a national unity government of all political parties is formed, and free and fair elections are held?
7% 9%
15%
69%
YES NO Maybe DK/NR Who would you prefer to be the next Prime Minister?
60% 56% 40%
20% 17% 12% 15% 0% Pervez Elahi Makhdom Amin Fahim Javed Hashmi DK/NR Who would you prefer be the PPP‘s candidate for Prime Minister? 90% 77% 80% Asif Zardari 70% Makhdom Amin 60% Fahim Yousaf Gillani 50% 40% Khursid Shah 30% Shah Mahmood Qureshi 20% 12% DK/NR 8% 10% 2% 1% 2% 0% With Bilawal Bhutto Zardari finishing his studies, who would you prefer to lead the party until he returns? 70% 66%
60% Asif Zardari
50% Makhdom Amin Fahim 40% Yousaf Gillani Khursid Shah 30% Aitzaz Ahsan 20% 16% 10% DK/NR 10% 1% 1% 1% 0% Which of the following party partnerships would you prefer as the next ruling coalition ?
80% 72% 70%
60%
50% PPP/PML-Q PPP/PML-N 40% PML-Q/PML-N 30% DK/NR
20% 11% 9% 8% 10%
0% Which of the following party partnerships would you prefer as the next ruling coalition ?
100% 89% 88% 90% 80% 70% 60% PPP/PML-Q 51% PPP/PML-N 50% 37% PML-Q/PML-N 40% DK/NR 30% 20% 9% 8% 6% 5% 10% 2%3% 2% 1% 0% PPP Voters PML-N Voters PML-Q Voters +/- 2.39 +/- 3.65 +/-4.59 In a future government coalition, would you rather see MQM form a ruling coalition with PML-Q or with PPP and PML-N?
17% 25%
PML-Q PPP/PML-N DK/NR
58% If President Musharraf were to resign, would you feel better or worse about the future of Pakistan?
79% Better 18% Worse
3% 62% 17% 7% 11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Much Better Somewhat Better Somewhat Worse Much Worse DK/NR