IRI Index Pakistan Public Opinion Survey January 19-29, 2008 Survey Methodology • In-person, in-home interview • National representative sample of adult resident of Pakistan • n =3,485 • Conducted between January 19-29, 2008 • Margin of error ±1.69 percent overall • Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO) • A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage eachdistrict was further stratified by Union Councils. • The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas, Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post- weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province. • The eligibility criteria is age, which for this survey is 18 years and above. • The response rate was just over 90 percent. • Interview teams were comprised of both males and females;the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. • The Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error. Survey Demographics Male 61% Female 39% Monthly Household Income Up to Rs 3,000 6% Urban 32% Rural 68% Rs 3,001 œ 10,000 54% Age Rs 10,001 œ 15,000 23% Up to 25 26% Rs 15,001 œ 25,000 8% 26-35 37% More than Rs 25,000 3% 36-50 31% Language 50+ 6% Urdu 8% Education Punjabi 44% Illiterate 21% Pashto 12% Primary 15% Middle 16% Sindhi 17% Matric 26% Seraiki 9% Intermediate 12% Hindko 5% Graduate 7% Balochi 3% MA/Prof‘l 2% Other 3% SOCIAL INDICATORS .o you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? 90% 84% 80% 73% 70% 70% 60% 59% 46% 50% 44% 44% 40% 43% 43% 33% 30% 38% 26% 20% 19% 15% 10% 0% June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Poll Poll Poll Poll Poll Poll Poll Right Direction Wrong Direction In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, worsened or stayed the same? 80% 70% 72% 60% 50% 56% 51% 40% 34% 35% 33% 34% 30% 24% 25% 30% 29% 20% 23% 14% 19% 13% 10% 4% 3% 1% 3% 0% 1% Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Better Worse Same DK/NR Thinking about next year, do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to get better, get worse or stay the same? 60% 50% 48% 41% 40% 34% 34% 33% 31% 31% 30% 30% 28% 30% 30% 27% 26% 28% 18% 22% 20% 20% 21% 15% 23% 20% 20% 13% 18% 18% 18% 10% 14% 12% 0% June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Better Worse Same DK/NR 2 ree or Disagree? I feel more secure this year than I did last year. 3% Jan-08 85% 12% 7% Nov-07 66% 27% 12% Sept-07 65% 23% 6% June 07 56% 39% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues that are important to you? Very good Good Poor Very poor DK/NR 3% 6% 18% Good 12% 52% 28% 80% Poor In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important to you? 90% 80% 75% 80% 70% 61% 58% 68% 60% 50% 40% 31% 34% 38% 30% 20% 22% 18% 10% 0% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Good Poor Fould you say that the ruling coalition has done a good enough job to deserve re-election? 9% 29% Yes No DK/NR 62% Issues Fhen it come to casting your vote in the next election, which one of these issues determine which party you will vote for? Inflation 55% Unemployment 15% Poverty 6% Terrorism 12% Electricity and water 1% Education 1% Corruption 1% Law and order 6% Development 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2 ree or Disagree? The shortages of wheat, petrol, natural gas, and electricity are a serious problem. 5% 94% 1% 0% 50% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR .o you agree or disagree that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has weakened the federation? 6% 1% Agree Disagree DK/NR 93% President Musharraf says that Al-Qaeda was responsible for Benazir Bhutto‘s death, while some people are saying that the government itself was involved. Which do you think is more correct? 25% 13% 62% Al-Qaeda Government DK/NR 2 ree or Disagree? Religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan. Jan-08 73% 24% 2% Nov-07 66% 31% 3% Sept-07 74% 21% 5% June-07 64% 21% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR 2 ree or Disagree? The Taliban and Al-Qaeda operating in Pakistan is a serious problem. Jan-08 65% 32% 4% Nov-07 63% 34% 4% Sept-07 57% 33% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR 2 ree or Disagree? I support the Army fighting the extremists in the Northwest Frontier Province and Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Jan-08 33% 64% 3% Nov-07 40% 56% 4% Sept-07 28% 63% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR Do you think that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States on its war against terror? 100% 90% 83% 89% 80% 82% 70% 63% 60% 46% 47% 50% 40% 43% 38% 30% 32% 15% 15% 20% 11% 12% 10% 5% 3% 9% 0% 5% 2% Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Agree Disagree DK/NR INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS 64% 57% National 64% 42% Assembly 50% 48% 65% 55% 41% Government 24% S 30% H e 29% p o - 0 w 6 48% 49% Opposition 46% w M 51% o a 60% u r - 0 82% l d 7 80% 80% Army 70% y J 55% o u u 65% i n n - 0 r 34% s 7 a 28% t i 28% t t Police e 13% u S e 23% e t p 27% i a - o 0 c n 7 60% 51% h s 62% o Courts ? N 77% f o 68% v 67% t - h 0 e 7 55% 49% Political 50% f o J Parties 41% l a 51% l n 58% o - 0 w 8 68% 67% i Media 82% n 80% g 78% 88% 49% 47% Election 49% 42% Commission 47% 47% How has the performance of President Musharraf affected your opinion of the Army ? 14% 13% 16% 57% Higher opinion of the Army No change in opinion Lower opinion of the Army DK/NR 2 ree or Disagree: The Army should have no role in the civilian government. 1% 30% 69% Agree Disagree DK/NR Leadership Index .o you approve or disapprove of the job President Musharraf is doing? 80% 70% 72% 62% 60% 63% 60% 60% 54% 50% 49% 40% 34% 30% 30% 23% 22% 26% 20% 21% 15% 10% 0% June-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Approve Disapprove Some people have called for the resignation of President Musharraf. Do you think he should resign? 6% 3% 16% Yes No Maybe DK/NR 75% Fhich one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing Pakistan? (in past polls respondents picked names from a list, in this poll the question was open-ended therefore some responses appear for the first time) 40% 36% 35% 32% 32% 30% 28% 27% 24% 25% 25% 23% 20% 23% 21% 17% 15% 16% 14% 14% 15% 10% 7% 6% 8% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% 3% 3 % 0% 3 % 2% 1% 2 % 2 % 2% 1% 1% 0 % 0 % 0% 0 % June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mahkdom Amin Fahim Pervez Musharraf Nawaz Sharif Fazal-ur Rehman Qazi Hussain Imran Khan Altaf Hussein Bilawal Bhutto Pervez Elahi Fhich one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing Pakistan? (by province) 60% 57% 50% 40% 31% 25% 27% 30% 24% 21% 20% 20% 15% 11% 13% 8% 9%8% 10% 4% 4% 6% 6% 2% 0% Punjab +/- 2.27 Sindh +/- 3.43 NW FP +/- 4.54 Balochistan +/- 6.78 Makhdom Amin Fahim Pervez Musharraf Nawaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Pervez Elahi Altaf Hussain How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 55% 50% 40% 32% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) Javed Hashmi (PML-N) Favorable How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100% 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 55% 50% 40% 34% 37% 37% 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% Bilawal Makhdom Shah Asif Yousaf Aitzaz Bhutto Amin Mahmood Zardari Raza Gilani Ahsan (PPP) Fahim Qureshi (PPP) (PPP) (PPP) (PPP) (PPP) Favorable How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 16% 20% 12% 12% 14% 10% 0% Pervez Musharraf Mushahid Chaudhry Pervez Elahi (PML-Q) Hussain (PML-Q) Shujaat Hussain (PML-Q) (PML-Q) Favorable How would you rate each of the following political personalities? (% saying favorable) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 49% 50% 40% 30% 25% 18% 20% 10% 0% Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani Mohammad Mian Iftikhar M.