Nomura Individual Investor Survey February 2017(PDF 340KB)
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
News Release Nomura Individual Investor Survey February 2017 16 February 2017 Global Research Division Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. The Nomura Individual Investor Survey is a monthly survey conducted with the aim of better understanding investing activity by individuals and providing information on related trends. Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey February 16, 2017 1. Survey overview (1) Nomura I-View Index falls to 35.0 after rising previous month The Nomura Individual Investor Market View Index (Nomura I-View Index), based on respondents' three-month outlook for share prices and calculated by subtracting the percentage of responses for "fall" from that for "rise," was 35.0 in February 2017, falling m-m after having risen the previous month. The Nikkei 225 reference level (6 February 2017 close) was 18,976.71, down 324.73 from the previous survey (10 January 2017 close of 19,301.44). (2) Increased investor interest in forex Respondents were asked to select the factor most likely to affect the stock market over the next three months. The response rate for "forex trends" rose 4.2ppt m-m to 24.7% and it was the only factor for which the response rate rose. The response rate for "market factors & psychological factors" was flat m-m while response rates for all the other factors declined. (3) Appeal of consumer goods sector rises, of automobile sector falls On the outlook for sectors over the next three months or so, we calculate a diffusion index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of responses for "unappealing" from that for "appealing." The DI for the consumer goods sector rose 11.1pt m-m to 3.0, becoming positive for the first time in six months. In contrast, the DI for the automobile sector fell 19.7pt to -19.3, taking it into negative territory for the first time in six months. (4) Rise in number of investors expecting slight yen appreciation against US dollar On the outlook for USD/JPY over the next three months, the combined percentage of respondents expecting the yen to appreciate against the US dollar was 63.9%, up 10.9ppt from the previous month. The response rate for "rise of about ¥5 against the dollar" rose 12.5ppt m-m to 41.6%. The response rate for "rise of about ¥10 against the dollar" fell 1.5ppt m-m to 17.5%, while that for "rise of more than ¥10 against the dollar" fell 0.1ppt m-m to 4.8%. The response rate for "fall of about ¥5 against the dollar" declined 10.8ppt m-m to 26.9%, while that for "fall of about ¥10 against the dollar" declined 1.0ppt to 6.7%. In contrast, the response rate for "fall of more than ¥10 against the dollar" rose 0.9ppt m-m to 2.5%. (5) Investment appeal of US dollar declines sharply On the outlook for different currencies over the next three months, we calculate a DI for each currency by subtracting the percentage of responses for "unappealing" from that for "appealing." This month the DI for the US dollar declined by 15.7pt m-m to 22.7, marking its largest-ever margin of decline (with the period covered starting in January 2010). The DI for the yen, meanwhile, rose for the first time in three months, by 7.4pt to 29.7. The DI for the yuan rose for the first time in seven months, by 6.6pt to -43.2. (6) Appeal of Japanese equities and cash & deposits among financial instruments rises To give an indication of plans for holding financial instruments, we calculate DIs for each type of financial instrument by subtracting the percentage of respondents planning to cease holding the instrument or decrease their holdings from the percentage planning to hold the instrument for the first time or increase their holdings. The DI for Japanese equities rose m-m for the third straight month, by 2.0pt to 40.9, while that for cash & deposits also rose m-m, by 1.7pt to 31.1. In contrast, the DI for foreign bonds declined 1.5pt m-m to 0.9. (7) Lower percentage of respondents expect prices to be higher one year out When asked for their outlook for prices of regularly purchased goods and services one year out, the percentage of respondents selecting one of the "rise" responses increased 2.2ppt to 36.2%, while the percentage selecting one of the "fall" responses rose 1.4ppt m-m to 18.0%. The proportion of respondents selecting the "no change" response rose 0.8ppt m-m to 45.8%. (8) Shareholder returns For this month's spot question, we asked about shareholder returns. When we asked respondents what dividend yield they expected when they invested in Japanese equities, the highest response rate, at 31.4%, was for "2% or more but less than 3%." This was followed by "3% or more but less than 4%," at 22.0%, and "1% or more but less than 2%," at 20.3%. Next we asked investors in Japanese equities which company shareholder return policies they focused on. The greatest number, with a response rate of 73.5%, selected "cash dividends," followed by "shareholder perks," at 51.7%. 2 Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey February 16, 2017 2. Survey results (1) Nomura I-View Index falls to 35.0 after rising previous month The Nomura Individual Investor Market View Index (Nomura I-View Index), based on respondents' three-month outlook for share prices and calculated by subtracting the percentage of responses for "fall" from that for "rise," was 35.0 in February 2017, falling m-m after having risen the previous month. The Nikkei 225 reference level (6 February 2017 close) was 18,976.71, down 324.73 from the previous survey (10 January 2017 close of 19,301.44) (Figure 1). Fig. 1: The Nomura I-View Index and reference level of Nikkei 225 at time of survey (DI) (¥) Nomura I-View Index (lhs) 80 22,000 Past average for index (lhs) Nikkei 225 at time of survey (rhs) 70 20,000 60 18,000 50 16,000 40 14,000 30 12,000 20 10,000 10 8,000 (yy/m) 0 6,000 06/4 07/1 07/10 08/7 09/4 10/1 10/10 11/8 12/5 13/2 13/11 14/8 15/5 16/2 16/11 Note: (1) The Nomura I-View Index is based on data collected by this survey and expressed as a diffusion index (DI). The calculation method is as follows: ([(number of responses indicating expected rise in share prices in the next three months) minus (number of responses indicating expected fall in share prices in the next three months)] divided by number of respondents) x 100. The figure for January 2010 used here excludes those respondents who projected that the Nikkei 225 would be flat. (2) The Nomura I- View Index ranges from -100 to +100. The closer to +100, the more bullish the outlook held by individual investors. The closer to -100, the more bearish the outlook held by individual investors. The combined proportion of respondents expecting the Nikkei 225 to fall over the next three months was 32.5%, up 1.2ppt from 31.3% the previous month. The proportion of respondents expecting a "fall of about 1,000 points" rose 3.7ppt m-m to 24.6%, the proportion expecting a "fall of about 2,000 points" fell 2.1ppt to 4.5%, and the proportion expecting a "fall of more than 2,000 points" declined 0.4ppt to 3.4%. The proportion of respondents expecting a "rise of about 1,000 points" fell 8.1ppt m-m to 38.4%, while the proportion expecting a "rise of about 2,000 points" rose 4.2ppt to 21.5% and the proportion expecting a "rise of more than 2,000 points" rose 2.7ppt to 7.6% (Figure 2). 3 Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey February 16, 2017 Fig. 2: Outlook for Nikkei 225 during the next three months Rise of more than 2,000 points Rise of about 2,000 points Rise of about 1,000 points Fall of about 1,000 points Fall of about 2,000 points Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Fall of more than 2,000 points 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 (% of responses) Note: Respondents were asked to share their outlook for the Nikkei 225 over the next three months based on the 6 February 2017 close of 18,976. Respondents could choose one answer from six possible responses ranging from a rise of more than 2,000 points to a fall of more than 2,000 points, with 1,000-point increments in between. (2) Increased investor interest in forex Respondents were asked to select the factor most likely to affect the stock market over the next three months. The response rate for "forex trends" rose 4.2ppt m-m to 24.7% and it was the only factor for which the response rate rose. The response rate for "market factors & psychological factors" was flat m-m, while response rates for all the other factors declined (Figure 3). Fig. 3: Impact of factors on the stock market International affairs Forex trends Domestic interest rates Domestic politics Domestic corporate earnings Market factors & psychological factors Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Weather & natural disasters 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 (% of responses) Note: Respondents were asked to choose one answer from seven possible responses concerning factors likely to impact the stock market over the next three months or so.