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AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL NIGERIA II 3 NIGERIA Shariacracy on Trial Advocates of Sharia Face a Northern Lights Reckoning This Year

AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL NIGERIA II 3 NIGERIA Shariacracy on Trial Advocates of Sharia Face a Northern Lights Reckoning This Year

www.-confidential.com 31 August 2001 Vol 42 No 17 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL II 3 NIGERIA Shariacracy on trial Advocates of Sharia face a Northern lights reckoning this year. The poverty The north wants to rule again but its two strongest candidates are and frustration that drives support deadly rivals for Sharia in the north may yet General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida is once more at the centre of Nigerian politics. As he celebrated overwhelm the politicians who have adopted it as a tactic for addressing his 60th birthday in Saudi Arabia on 17 August, many northern Nigerians were asking him to run for the popular discontent. Questions are national leadership, to reverse what they see as the region’s marginalisation under the southern President, being asked about why no . ‘IBB’ is the wealthiest and probably the most influential of the six northern leaders government officials from the who wish to restore the region’s political dominance. notoriously corrupt public service Babangida’s wife, Maryam Babangida, had planned a grand birthday at the family mansion in are being brought to trial in Sharia courts. Minna, . This was reluctantly abandoned when her husband judged a star-studded party provocative. It would have played badly in the newspapers, which report growing demands for Babangida to appear before the Chukwuifudu Oputa Panel (AC Vol 42 No 15) to respond to allegations NIGERIA III 3 of involvement in the murder of journalist Dele Giwa in October 1986. Friends and business associates confirm that Babangida is considering running for the presidency. How Sharia spread The question is when. In 2003, he would almost certainly be up against Obasanjo, who would enjoy the Within 18 months of the return to advantages of incumbency and the machinery of the People’s Democratic Party which, though unimpressive, civil rule, all the north-western state is much stronger than those of the rivals, the Alliance for Democracy and the All People’s Party. Obasanjo governments had extended Sharia could hardly match IBB’s war chest; he is not rich as Nigerian politicians go, yet his re-election campaign from civil to criminal jurisdiction. The campaign for Sharia is yet will surely raise the necessary naira. another popular strike against the shaky federal system. Friends of Ibrahim No one knows which, if any, of the political associations linked to Babangida will be registered as political 5 parties: Saleh Jambo’s National Security Association; Edwin Ime Ezeoke’s National Frontiers; Augustus Aikhomu’s Fourth Dimension; Musa Musawa’s Northern Elements Progressive Union. A sort of peace Forging any or all of them in two years into viable rivals to Obasanjo’s PDP would be tough. Yet Babangida wants to put down a marker soon. His political advisors have been telling him that more After three years of wrangling, it trouble in the oil-producing Niger Delta or renewed Christian-Muslim clashes in the north or has been agreed that the current head of state, Buyoya, will could clear the path for political and religious radicals who see Obasanjo and Babangida as their common stay at the helm for another 18 enemy, the candidates of the conservative -backed ruling class. months, after which a Babangida’s eight-year record in government includes failed political and economic reforms, the candidate will take over for the annulling of the 1993 elections after the late had won them and gaps in the accounting second half of a three-year for billions of dollars of oil receipts. However, the Babangidists say that Obasanjo has failed to turn transition. But two coup attempts in the past five months show the around the economic and political havoc wreaked by two decades of military rule or to build on the fragility of support for Buyoya – northern vote that elected him in 1999, when many of his own Yoruba people in the south-west rejected even among his fellow . him. Far from rewarding the north, he has removed key northerners from the senior ranks of the army, civil service and state-owned corporations. He has done little to redress the poverty and illiteracy that 6 afflict the north more than his Yoruba south-west and the Ibo-dominated south-east. He has stridently opposed the extension in the north of Sharia (Islamic law) to cover criminal offences, which many Reality checks Muslims see as the best way to fight crime and corruption. , Vice-President and Obasanjo’s key man on the northern front, has attracted an Eight months into his first term, the impressive list of enemies there, with Babangida near the top. In May, Obasanjo’s National Security glister is coming off John Kufuor’s presidency. He faces problems of Advisor, Aliyu Mohammed , brought Babangida together with Atiku and Obasanjo to discuss party management, economic their differences. Atiku was quiet for most of the encounter. Obasanjo and Babangida, who were soldiers strategy, and investigating the together for almost two decades, had a discussion of sorts and could possibly make a deal; political misdeeds of the previous regime. insiders insist that IBB backed Obasanjo’s presidential candidacy in 1999, partly to help his own political rehabilitation. The two men met again this month to discuss Babangida’s appearance before the Oputa POINTERS 8 Panel and are believed to have agreed that all former officers, including Obasanjo, should testify about specific human rights charges. Namibia, Angola, Last year, Atiku brought the governors of the 19 northern states to a rally in , partly to buttress his credentials as spiritual successor to the late Sardauna of , . In the 1960s, Bello was lauded UK/Africa & Congo- for extending Western education in the north and negotiating a compromise over a Sharia-based civil legal Brazzaville system. Much has changed since then. Many northern Muslims regard Atiku as on the wrong side of the Sharia 31 August 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 17

NIGER Lake Another former military leader, Gen. , lauds Sokoto Chad the virtues of Sharia and shares platforms with northern opposition

Katsina figures. He harbours grudges against Obasanjo and Babangida for Jigawa Zamfara Yobe their role in the overthrow of his military regime in August 1985. Kano Kebbi Borno Katsina-born Buhari earned the animosity of the Yar’Adua clan and Atiku by failing to speak out when the late general was gaoled by the BENIN Bauchi Kaduna Gombe Kaduna Abacha regime. Buhari eventually took over the directorship of the Niger a NIGERIA w K a Trust Fund, set up by Abacha and accused of corruption and w Plateau m ar a a d inefficiency. Obasanjo has scrapped the PTF and launched an Ilorin A Ogbomosho Nassarawa investigation which will at least embarrass Buhari. Oyo Oshogbo Taraba Iwo Ekiti As military ruler, Buhari cut a hardline ascetic figure, which makes Ado-Ekiti Kogi Ibadan Ilesha Abeokuta Osun Benue him a more convincing promoter of Sharia than its front-line advocate, Ogun Ondo Mushin Edo Enugu CAMEROON Ahmed Sani, Governor of and a flamboyant figure Anambra Onitsha Ebonyi known for conspicuous consumption. On 26 August, Buhari told the Abia Cross Delta Imo River Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria that Islamic jurisprudence The twelve states which 300 kilometres Rivers Akwa Bayelsa Ibom have adopted the Islamic should be rooted in all 36 states of the federation, arguing that Sharia, Port 150 miles Harcourt (Sharia) criminal code adopted with the support of mainstream Muslims, would be a bulwark against religious extremism. debate, obeying the southern Christian President Obasanjo. As Vice- Buhari has also shared a platform with , a former President, he has watched as northern prestige and power flowed into the Governor of ; they excoriated the Obasanjo government for hands of the first elected southern head of state. being anti-north, which is odd because, in 1994, Buhari’s military Some of Obasanjo’s most successful initiatives in the north don’t regime gaoled Rimi for misuse of office and grand corruption. Rimi, involve Atiku, such as his encouragement of the Arewa Consultative a formidable jumper on bandwagons, at first cooperated with the Forum under former police chief and Islamic scholar Mohammed military regimes of Babangida and Abacha, then fell out with them and Dikko Yusufu. Arewa, which is a northern lobby group, has had a appeared as an anti-military northern radical. In 1999, foreseeing series of meetings with political leaders in the south-eastern group Obasanjo’s victory, he promised to deliver Kano State to him – then Ohaneze Ndigbo, and the south-western group Afenifere to address was disappointed to be offered not a ministerial job but the chairmanship issues threatening the Nigerian federation. M.D. Yusufu, who was one of the Nigerian Mint. Now, he makes the most of his new political of few to challenge the late Gen. ’s attempts to win a partner Buhari and backs a dissident faction within the governing PDP bogus electoral mandate, has credibility across the country as a calling for a northern candidate (name: Abubakar Rimi) in 2003. Even nationalist. Part of the appeal of ‘M.D.’ is that, unlike Atiku, he is seen if Rimi lacks credibility, he and his allies reinforce the accusation that as having no political ambitions. Obasanjo’s government is anti-north. In the 1999 elections, Obasanjo chose Atiku, then Governor of the north-eastern , because he claimed control of the Obstacle course political machine set up by the late Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Two other northern leaders, former President and (allegedly poisoned by agents of the late military leader Abacha) and, Gen. , speak more thoughtfully but more as a former Director of Customs and Excise, was rich enough to fuse weightily. Shagari, who as elected President was overthrown by Yar’Adua’s Katsina-based organisation with his own north-eastern Generals Buhari and Babangida, backs Sharia but does not seek the following. Members of the Yar’Adua clan say Atiku has done little for presidency. He is influential in his native Sokoto and close to the wily them or the family businesses. For example, Atiku had been expected Kaduna-based political fixer Umaru Dikko, whose outstanding to help relaunch The Reporter, Yar’Adua’s paper and one of few grievance against the Buhari regime is that its officials (with Israeli privately owned ones in the north. Some Kaduna journalists say Atiku help) drugged him in London in 1985, packed him in a crate and tried is keener to get control of the state-owned New Nigerian newspaper to air-freight him home to stand trial for corruption. group, which was slated for privatisation until, last month, Obasanjo Gen. Abubakar has been denounced before the Oputa Panel by a removed it from the list of companies to be privatised while Atiku (who former Director of military intelligence, Brigadier Ibrahim Sabo, who is also Chairman of the Privatisation Council) was on holiday in the alleges that Abubakar’s regime failed to account for money retrieved United States. from corrupt deals by the previous Abacha regime. It is not yet clear Nobody knows why Obasanjo made that decision. Some suggest whether Abubakar will defend himself before the Panel or explain the that he suspects Atiku of presidential ambitions for 2003; posters rundown of foreign exchange reserves under his regime from $7 billion backing an Atiku presidential bid mysteriously appeared in Abuja in to $3bn. in six months (AC Vol 40 No 8). Yet Abubakar is well enough May and rapidly disappeared after he disowned them. Others suggest thought of abroad to have led the Commonwealth’s election monitoring that Obasanjo saw the New Nigerian as too powerful in the north to fall team to Zimbabwe in June 2000. into private hands; the government is still selling its 60 per cent of the Four of the dominant northern leaders are former heads of state, one southern-based group. is a discredited state governor. That is the region’s political weakness. Some insist that the Atiku-Obasanjo relationship is under terminal Vice-President Atiku sees himself as the wave of the future but faces three strain but the President can’t decide on an alternative northern partner. major obstacles. He is out of sympathy with the Sharia movement, which Gossip, and newspaper stories, have been circulating about Atiku’s symbolises resistance to southern power. He also seems be out of considerable wealth, including an alleged US$130 million lodged in a sympathy with his President, who can still change his northern running US bank this year. Atiku’s friends blame Babangida for the rumours; mate before 2003. Most of all, Atiku’s powerful enemies are led by one of them said that, if IBB doesn’t take on Atiku now, the Vice- Babangida, whose political skills have not been blunted by time or the President will be far too strong by the end of Obasanjo’s second term. disasters that have befallen Nigeria during and since his rule.

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poverty for most of the talakawa (people). Zamfara remains not only NIGERIA II one of the poorest places in Nigeria but one of the poorest in Africa. Sharia has mass support in Muslim northern Nigeria and a growing constituency in the south-west. More than 100,000 people demonstrated in its favour in Zamfara State two years ago, with similar demonstrations Shariacracy on trial in Kano and Minna last year. Several hundred beer parlours have been The adoption of Sharia hasn’t reduced crime closed, prostitutes and pimps have been driven out of town, and the and corruption phrase ‘Sharia compliant’ has entered Nigeria’s rich lexicon. Encouraged by the mallams and imams, northern politicians are promoting Nigerian advocates of Sharia – governance according to the norms, ‘Shariacracy’, seen by some as a counter to the shift of power and wealth principles and rules laid down by Islamic law* – face a reckoning this to the south. The problem is that Sharia – with the risk of religious year. The poverty and frustration that drives support for Sharia in the confrontation, Sharia vigilantes and prohibitions on alcohol – may north may yet overwhelm the politicians who have adopted it as a frighten off investment from southern Nigeria, let alone from overseas. tactic for addressing popular discontent. Almost two years ago, That is a political as well as a business gamble. Governor Ahmed Sani proclaimed that Zamfara State would adopt Resentment at poverty in northern Nigeria runs deep after 40 years of the Islamic criminal code and eleven more states followed. Sharia Independence, most of it under northern-led military governments. The supporters claimed that it would make northern Nigeria safer, wealthier south has oil but the north’s agrarian economy is in shreds. Northern and godlier. Yet in most northern states, Sharia compliant or not, soldiers dominate politics but most big business is southern-owned. crime is still rising, state corruption continues, and so does grinding Privatisation and liberalisation under President Olusegun Obasanjo – How Sharia spread North-west Nigeria, with probably more than 30 million people, is the of traditional faiths. In Gombe, the secularist Governor, Abubakar country’s most populous zone – overwhelmingly Muslim, with significant Hashidu, is said to have told the police to deal robustly with pro- numbers of Christians only in southern Kaduna and southern Kebbi Sharia demonstrators – but after several of them had been shot, states. By December 2000, within 18 months of the return to civil rule, Hashidu sent a Sharia bill to the state assembly, where it has been all the north-western state governments had extended Sharia from civil lingering for several months. The Governor, Adamu to criminal jurisdiction. Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto followed Zamfara’s Muazu, sent a Sharia bill to the state assembly without fanfare. example without much opposition. However, Kaduna and Kano have In the north-central or Middle-Belt states, Benue and Plateau are substantial Christian populations. In Kaduna, most Christians are overwhelmingly Christian and their peoples have resisted Islamisation indigenous, from minority ethnic groups such as the Kataf; in Kano, since Independence. In Kogi and Nassarawa states, there is a rough many are migrants, running small businesses such as motor spares shops. balance of Muslims and non-Muslims; state Governors Abubakar In the 1980-90s, there were three major clashes between Christians and Audu (Kogi) and (Nassarawa) are both Muslims Muslims in southern Kaduna. but unenthusiastic about Sharia. Governor Alhaji Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi has Muslims have a clear majority in Kwara and Niger states. Kwara’s tried to restrict the implementation of Sharia to areas where Muslims Governor, Captain , has made Sharia a low priority; are in a clear majority. He pleased the federal government by Niger’s Abdulkadir Kure, once a militant Islamic student, had transferring the State Commissioner of Police, Hamisu Isa, out of started to implement Sharia last year when riots broke out in Kaduna. Kaduna after he was accused of having refused a permit to Christian One of Kure’s first bills in the Niger state assembly was a prohibition demonstrators. (Major General , widely on the sale of alcohol. He initially agreed to federal demands that he accused of anti-Muslim bias in army operations in Kaduna, has since suspend the Sharia bill but pushed ahead after protests in Minna. been promoted to Chief of Army Staff, AC Vol 42 No 9). Many fear There is a strong chance that Kwara, Kogi and Nassarawa may adopt that Governor Ahmed may just be buying time before the next Sharia, although their populations are roughly half non-Muslim. Sharia sectarian explosion. is ruled out in the predominantly Christian south-east. At a conference In Kano, Governor Musa Kwankwaso tried to delay the passing last year of the ‘south-south’ governors (who run the country’s main oil- of the Sharia bill through the state assembly, amid rumours that the producing states), there was backing for the establishment of Christian state government had in exchange accepted millions of naira from the states to balance the spread of Sharia in the north. federal government. The Governor’s mansion was a target for In the south-west, there is growing pressure for some states with demonstrators, until he announced the decision to go ahead with high Muslim populations to adopt Sharia, such as Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Sharia at a huge rally in June 2000. Governors Umar Yar’Adua Ekiti, Osun and Oyo. In the south-west, Sharia could prove even more (Katsina), Ibrahim Saminu Turaki (Jigawa) and explosive than in Kaduna. The prominent Abeokuta Chief, Lateef (Sokoto) balanced local pressure to extend Sharia against federal Adegbite, and the former Deputy Governor of , Lateefat inducements not to, and chose Sharia. Okunnu, are prominent Sharia advocates; the Southern States Council The six north-eastern states, with about 12 million people, are for Islamic Affairs has denounced the press and some southern more diverse. Borno and Yobe are almost entirely Muslim but politicians as anti-Muslim. Governors (Borno) and (Yobe) – The Yoruba nationalist groupings, Afenifere and the O’odua People’s supporters of Vice-President Atiku Abubakar – were not keen to Congress, are at odds on the issue. Afenifere is stridently anti-Sharia and extend Sharia. In Taraba, where Muslims are a minority, Sharia was would staunchly oppose its introduction in Yorubaland. The OPC’s blocked. In Adamawa, where Atiku was elected state Governor then openly secessionist faction under Ganiyu Adams (who was arrested last parachuted into the vice-presidency, the Christian Deputy Governor, week) regards Sharia has yet more proof that Nigeria’s federation is no , took over the governorship, to the fury of the state’s longer tenable. Perhaps that argument is the one that most haunts the Muslim-dominated political class, proud of its Islamic ancestry. Obasanjo government in Abuja. Like the demands for more power and After legal challenges, Governor Haruna has blocked Sharia. money to the states and to the grassroots, the campaign for Sharia is yet Gombe and Bauchi have large minorities of Christians and followers another popular strike against Nigeria’s shaky federal system.

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a southerner, elected with northern votes – reinforce that dominance. received pay-offs from army officers for delivering cash payments For many northern nationalists, Sharia is a challenge to the from the . Two months later, he was claiming Westernisation and globalisation to which Nigeria has succumbed. instead that his money came from family businesses.** He was The north’s Muslim elite cannot easily disavow the Sharia cause, Director General for Lands and Housing under Zamfara’s military no matter how much they oppose the Islamic huddud punishments for administrator, Jibril Bala Yakubu, during Gen. Sani criminals, such as amputation (of hand or hand and foot) for theft, Abacha’s regime (Yakubu is now on trial with Abacha’s son flogging and stoning to death for fornication and adultery respectively. Mohammed and his chief security , Hamza Al-Mustafa, for Once Sharia has been extended to a particular area of the criminal the attempted murder of newspaper proprietor ). code, Islamic principles say it cannot be rescinded. Vice-President Opponents say there is a strong case for Governor Sani to appear Atiku Abubakar, a Muslim, has tried to get state governors to do so, before the Sharia criminal courts, along with his predecessor, Col. and failed. Yakubu. Significantly, Sani was one of the few elected governors who The Sharia cause reanimates the divide between Christians and didn’t launch a probe into the conduct of his military predecessor. Muslims; clashes in Kaduna and Kano last year and in Bauchi State There are growing calls for Sani to explain the source of funds that he’s this year have cost hundreds of lives. Last month in Tafawa Balewa using to build the Gusau mansion. Other critics, such as National – a flashpoint for ethno-religious violence in Bauchi State – Muslim Assembly member Sani Anka of the PDP, says that contrary to bus drivers tried to segregate male and female passengers and fighting Islamic principles, Governor Sani distributes the fruits of his Sharia- broke out. In Kano, hotel and bar owners threaten to set up self- inspired poverty alleviation programme – free bicycles, motorcycles defence groups against Islamic militants. Last weekend, members of and buses – only to political favourites in his All People’s Party. the Hisbah, a state-backed Islamic vigilante group, destroyed over Sani insists he had a mandate to introduce Sharia but nobody 1,000 cartons of beer in Kano. remembers the subject in his campaign speeches or his election manifesto. His change of heart in 1999 puzzled both his Christian and Two legal systems clash – more seriously – his Islamic opponents. Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky The federal government no longer challenges the constitutionality of and his Iranian-backed followers argue that extending Sharia to extending the Sharia from personal to criminal law. Legal opinion criminal law is pointless, since Shariacracy requires a theocratic state. was divided about whether the constitution provides for a secular More pointedly, he argues that Governor Sani and his colleagues have state, prohibits cruel or unusual punishments (amputation or stoning) adopted Sharia for political rather than religious ends and will or would bar the use of state funds for a parallel criminal justice compromise its implementation. system. Such arguments might split the Supreme Court along Elsewhere the Sharia cause has reinvigorated militant Islamic confessional lines and the federal government would be gravely groups such as Izala, one of whose leaders, Yakubu Musa, is detained damaged if it lost. in Abuja on charges of harbouring foreigners ‘with intent to cause Abuja seeks to undermine politicians who exploit the issue. In trouble’, and calling for the formation of an Islamic political party. May, Obasanjo told the AllAfrica.com news service: ‘It is what I call More than 10,000 Izala supporters demonstrated peacefully in Kaduna political Sharia that will come and go, because if you want to use last week for his release, as has the Kano-based rights group, Network Sharia for political purposes it will not hold. The genuine Sharia is for Justice. part of the way of life of a Muslim and part of the way of life of Nigerians.’ From Islamic to Islamist Sharia supporters see the government’s hand behind an invitation Leading the mainstream Sharia cause is the National Sharia from the Assembly of Muslims in Nigeria to former Sudanese Prime Implementation Committee led by Kano-based Datti Ahmed. Minister El Sadig Sadeeg el Mahdi to speak at a forum on Islamisation Politically astute, Ahmed recognises that the campaign risks running in Kaduna. On cue, he warned that Islamisation could be divisive in out of steam and argues that state governments have failed to allocate a multi-faith country (though he has championed Islamisation in funds for the trained lawyers, courts and enforcement agents needed Sudan, AC Vol 42 No 16). In his own country in 1983, he said, the to widen Sharia. former military leader, General Ja’afar Mohamed Nimeiri, had The Jama’atu Nasir Islam (JNI), grouping most of the north’s decreed an Islamic criminal code then ‘declared that since he applied Muslim traditional rulers, is anxious to implement the Sharia code Sharia, his authority had become sacred and that from now on, those without infringing the rights of non-Muslims and has visited five who obey him obey God and those who oppose him oppose God.’ states to find ways of dampening Muslim-Christian tensions. The JNI Nimeiri’s Islamisation programme was largely drawn up by National mission was led by the Sultan of Sokoto, traditionally the region’s Islamic Front boss Hassan Abdullah el Turabi and gave birth to the final authority on religious matters. Yet the present Sultan, present NIF regime, with its draconian security system and , is much berated for cooperating with Gen. militarisation. Abacha’s regime, which overthrew and detained the previous Sultan, Governor Ahmed Sani, who pioneered the reintroduction of Sharia Ibrahim Dasuki. He endorsed the extension of Sharia only after for criminal offences, has been accused of opportunism and Zamfara had enacted it. Sultan Maccido has been a follower not a inconsistency by both sides of the Sharia debate. In Zamfara, the leader and his manipulation by soldiers and politicians has gravely People’s Democratic Party opposition in the state assembly, egged on weakened the Sultanate’s authority. by Obasanjo’s National Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed Gusau After a debate on Sharia implementation in the Kaduna State (who comes from the state), accuse Sani of hypocrisy – amputating the Assembly, the Christian Association of Nigeria invited the former hands of petty thieves while ignoring alleged corruption in his own leader of the secessionist Biafra, Chief Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, to party. There are embarrassing questions about Sani’s nine houses, speak on ‘Sharia and its implications in a secular society’. Ojuwku seven farms, rice-threshing factory and a mansion under construction condemned Sharia as an infringement of Christians’ rights and advised in Gusau, the state capital. Igbo migrants to stand by the indigenous Christians in the north. That In December 1999, he told three foreign journalists that he had was in January 2000; the following month, Christians started

4 31 August 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 17 demonstrating against Sharia. Hundreds were killed in Kaduna and 1996. The former South African President took over from there were retaliatory killings of northerners in the south-east. Northern Mwalimu and the process now has 29 different members. In traditional rulers, notably the Emir of Kano, Ado Bayero, intervened addition to the 19 Burundian parties represented (including to stop the murderous cycle. civil society representative Abbé Astère Kana), they include Northern Muslims accused federal government television of bias, Great Lakes Representative Dickson Kathambana from Kenya claiming footage of the Kaduna riots was manipulated and saying the and Belgian Ambassador Jean Mutton for the donors. The southern-owned press was too ready to blame supporters of Sharia for idea now is to make the process Burundian. After three years’ the violence. The Nigerian Tribune falsely reported that two leading wrangling, it has been agreed that the current, Tutsi, head of Muslims, former military leader Gen. and state, Major , will remain at the helm for 18 Ahmadu Chanchangi, had accumulated armouries and were training months, with Frodebu’s as his deputy. militias. Apparent media bias against Sharia has reinforced Muslim The spoken Arusha understanding is that a Hutu will take over support for it. for the second half of a three-year transition. The unspoken However, continued support also depends on conditions improving. understanding is that it will be Ndayizeye. Frodebu is itself There’s no sign of that yet in the Sharia states. Rather, there’s growing divided over the pact with Buyoya. cynicism that those subject to huddud punishments have been the poor and dispossessed. No high-ranking state officials have been hauled Not only ethnicity before Sharia courts for corruption; and though some allege that Bujumbura is still far from calm. Tension remains high, including senior clerics are guilty of sexual misconduct, none have had to answer at the university, and the pro-Tutsi but anti-Buyoya protesters of charges of fornication in Sharia courts. the Parti pour le Redressement National (Parena) are helping to Supporters of Sharia may start demanding still more radical maintain it. responses if they see that like Western law in Nigeria, the Sharia Two coup attempts in the last five months have underlined system is weighted grossly in favour of the rich and powerful. dangerous divisions in the armed forces, which have been the great Moreover, there are several Islamist groups wanting to push the Sharia unknown since the 1970s, when Michel Micombero was President train further. Already some northern nationalists are arguing that (until deposed by Jean-Baptiste Bagaza in 1976) and Buyoya was Sharia may critically weaken the north by exacerbating its divisions still learning the complexities of Tutsi politics. on class and religious lines. The slogan of Ahmadu Bello, the first The Tutsi elite is not simply defined by ethnicity. It is intricately post-Independent Premier of northern Nigeria and advocate of threaded with military, militia, political, class and family Islamisation – ‘One north, one destiny’ – is looking more hollow these relationships; it fights shy of a deal between Buyoya and Frodebu. days. The extreme Tutsi Parena particularly distrusts Buyoya and has * as defined by Professor Ali MazruiMazrui, Professor of Humanities, been staging public protests against any agreement. Parena activists Binghampton University, United StatesStates, who coined the term Shariacracy. resist proposed reforms in the army for a 50:50 Hutu-Tutsi ratio. ** as quoted in ‘This House has Fallen’ by Karl Maier (Public Affairs). They want no Hutu officers and don’t even want to talk about it. The key Tutsi player here is Parena’s supremo, ex-President Bagaza, who is strongly backed both by worried junior officers and BURUNDI by some ‘’ (senior officers) who are unhappy about Buyoya’s efforts to find a way to work with the leader of the Forces pour la Défense de la Démocratie, Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye. A sort of peace The Hutu supremacist FDD are outside the peace process (AC Vol 42 No 5), as their continual raids from their bases in Congo- The Mandela peace deal is better than none Kinshasa (AC Vol 42 No 2) keep reminding everyone. but it’s far from final A more down-to-earth concern among some officers is that Regional peacemakers are now embroiled in the minutiae of the changes in current administrative arrangements could close down Arusha Accords on ending Burundi’s eight-year civil war, amid some lucrative business franchises. general scepticism that the power-sharing agreement brokered by can hold. This delicate and intractable conflict Moderate frustration began with the assassination in late 1993 of the elected President, A presidential candidate-in-waiting is ex- Colonel , of the moderate Hutu Front pour la Démocratie Epitace Bayaganakandi, who underlined his increasing rivalry au Burundi (Frodebu). This revived the old rivalry between the with his old comrade Buyoya this week by founding yet another Hutu majority and the Tutsi elite. The murder was part of an party, the Mouvement de Résistance Civique (MRC). He is still as abortive coup d’état by Tutsi supremacists on the armed forces popular as Bagaza among many of the more moderate but frustrated general staff. junior officers. However, he is not from the military heartland of Bururi Province, in the south-west but from Mwaro, in the centre Competing interests (a new province formed from southern Muramvya). This fuels the Regional agreement on a transitional arrangement was reached suspicions of both Buyoya and Bagaza, both of them from the on 23 July, after extremely long and difficult negotiations. Tutsi-Hima gentry of Bururi. This accord set up the Implementation Monitoring Commission Some of the FDD’s most skilful recent raids have been in (IMC) under Berhanu Dinka of Ethiopia, representing the Buyoya’s back-yard: Bururi borders Lake Tanganyika and is , which on 23 August began discussing the therefore easily accessible from Congo-K. The Conseil National logistics of the transition, due to start on 1 November. This pour la Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD), the political wing of opens a vital new chapter in the process begun under the late the FDD, is still led by former Interior Minister Léonard Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere’s leadership at Arusha in Nyangoma, who was also born in Bururi. He has been Buyoya’s

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arch-enemy but Buyoya badly needs a deal with the Hutu rebels and some in Bujumbura think he might get along better with GHANA Nyangoma than with Bayaganakandi. As usual, army opinion will be decisive. The Arusha process did not include those Hutu leaders who do not support Frodebu. Despite growing difficulties with his supply Reality checks lines in eastern Congo, the FDD’s Ndayikengurukiye has a powerful Party management, fighting recession and negotiating position. Strategists in Frodebu feel that, based upon trying miscreants dominate the NPP agenda shared interests, they can engineer a reconciliation between Buyoya and the two main Hutu fronts outside Arusha. These are the Eight months into his first term, the glister is coming off John CNDD-FDD and the Parti pour la Libération du Peuple Hutu Agyekum Kufuor’s presidency. Glad-handing his New Patriotic (Palipehutu) and its armed wing, the Forces Nationales pour la Party government and demonising the outgoing National Democratic Libération (FNL). For this, Frodebu needs to hold onto its Congress regime is beginning to pall for local journalists and more credibility among moderate Hutu politicians, while keeping lines critical voices are emerging. Kufuor faces three major problems: how open to the men in the hills – if only to convince donors that it is to manage the NPP with its wafer-thin parliamentary majority; how to worth laying out, and soon, some of the funds they pledged last goad the sluggish economy into life as recession looms in the West; December. On that depends what is left of Burundi’s formal and how to handle the crop of allegations against leading members of economy. the previous regime of grand corruption and human rights abuses. As part of the transition, a 1,000-strong task force of Kufuor wants to maintain unity in the NPP, which has a parliamentary Burundian nationals, including Hutu and Tutsi soldiers and majority of just two seats, as well as win enough national support from gendarmes in equal numbers, is to be set up by mid-October. the minority parties to ensure that some of the more controversial Its tasks are still unclear but are supposed to include watching government bills – such as hiking fuel and electricity prices – are over politicians as they return from exile. Without a credible passed quickly. He also wants to win support for the plan to sell the ceasefire the UN Security Council will not consider sending a state-owned water board. Despite losing the presidency to the NPP, peace-keeping force. the opposition NDC can still deploy a formidable battalion of members Regional alignments could be crucial. Uganda’s President of parliament to oppose or delay government bills. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has every interest in seeing Buyoya Some NDC strategists believe they can trade parliamentary though the first 18 months of transition but President Benjamin cooperation for a more nuanced approach from the NPP to investigation Mkapa of is more ambiguous. His close links to various into financial and political misdeeds by previous regimes. On two senior Hutu are increasingly a matter of record and he argues that recent occasions, Parliamentary Speaker Peter Ala Adjetey has Buyoya’s armed opponents are ‘defending a just cause’. He is suspended proceedings to prevent the NPP from losing a vote. worried, though, about destabilisation around refugee camps in Managing the NPP dominated the agenda in the run-up to the party’s Ngara and elsewhere in drought-hit northern Tanzania (there are national delegate conference on 25 August. Kufuor tightened his grip around half a million Burundian refugees in his country). His on the party machine and more or less guaranteed the party would officials have long felt able to handle the FDD and FNL but nominate him as flagbearer again in the next elections in 2004. All but increased attacks along the border have alarmed them. one of his nominees won posts on the NPP’s new National Executive. ’s Vice-President Paul Kagame is equally worried by Many of them are in their 50s and 60s, with few signs of a younger the prospect of increased cross-border operations against the FDD, generation of activists moving up the ranks. His choice as National whose weakness in eastern Congo is matched by its growing Chairman, Harona Esseku (69), replaces Samuel Odoi Sykes, who prowess in hit-and-run operations within Burundi. Western security is to be given an ambassadorial post. advisors believe that the FDD has far greater firepower and Kufuor’s candidate for NPP National Organiser, Sulemana Yirimea military expertise than it has yet deployed. Solving the Congo (63), was defeated narrowly by Lord Enoch Oblitey Commey (32) in conflict is seen as key to any solution of Burundi’s vicious war. the major upset of the conference. It means there’s not one representative After five years of economic embargo, the formal economy is in from the three northern regions (home to about a quarter of voters) on a desperate state. Coffee, the only export, is suffering from the National Executive. The Minister for Tourism and close friend of drought and the FDD’s terrorism. The informal economy is only Kufuor’s, Hawa Yakubu, said the lack of a northern voice in the top slightly better off. There is little agreement, even within the UN ranks of the party was worrying. She also sounded alarms at the mission examining the pillage of eastern Congo by Rwanda and conference about influence peddling and cash payments. Uganda, about who gets what from the cross-border economy via Her own appointment sparked controversy in the women’s wing of Lake Tanganyika. Few think Burundian profits are on a Rwandan the party, which had backed Deputy Education Minister Theresa scale. Meanwhile aid workers tell us that health indicators are Tagoe for a full ministerial appointment. The women suspect that the worse than ever. Wholesale famine in Muyinga Province has mercurial Yakubu’s friendship with Kufuor has helped her political prompted emergency food distribution. Malaria is especially ends and might propel her into contention as his running mate in the virulent, as it is in neighbouring Congo. Without the donor money 2004 elections. Above all else, the argument shows there is a serious that a ceasefire would bring, even Buyoya’s brasshats will soon be shortage of women in NPP senior ranks. facing hard times. Three strands in the NPP date from the 1998 leadership contest Beyond this lies the Mandela dimension. The father of South when Kufuor beat Nana Akufo-Addo and J.H. Mensah for the Africa’s liberation and reconciliation has invested far too much in flagbearer’s job. The divisions between the three are more of style and Arusha and its sequel to allow it to fail now. Buyoya, Bagaza, personality than of ideology. Kufuor is steeped in the Danquah-Busia Ndayikengurukiye and the rest calculate that this will allow them tradition and was described as a political prince-in-waiting after nearly to play out their own endgames. two decades of rule by . Akufo-Addo represents a

6 31 August 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 17 younger, more activist, political style and Mensah brings a strong The National Security Advisor, General Joshua Hamidu, is taking a track record as Finance Minister in Kofi Busia’s 1969-72 government more gung-ho approach. In exile for almost the entire PNDC-NDC and impressive intellectual credentials that might intimidate some of period, he is behind two misfiring attacks on the Rawlings legacy. Firstly, the less experienced hands in the party. he tried to implicate Rawlings and the NDC in an attempt to blame the NPP Kufuor appointed Mensah as leader of Government Business as well as for the disaster at Accra Stadium in which 126 soccer fans were trampled giving him an oversight role in economic policy. While Mensah and to death. He ordered the arrest of former Sports Minister E.T. Mensah in Finance Minister Osafo Marfo work well together, there are reports of April for allegedly paying people to start a riot in the stadium. On the back tensions with Economic Planning Minister Kwesi Nduom of the of that, Hamidu sent security agents to Rawlings’s house in Accra and Convention People’s Party. Nduom’s appointment was important for ordered them to search a building used by Rawlings in a neighbouring Kufuor to maintain the semblance of a coalition and win continued CPP compound. The accusations against Mensah had no evidence to back support. Yet Nduom has been besieged by the press and during his recent them up and the incident succeeded in winning some kudos for one of holiday in the United States, he was variously reported to have resigned, Rawlings’s most unpopular ministers. to have been sacked or to have gone on unofficial leave. To some surprise Hamidu’s next move – replacing Rawlings’s guards drawn from the in Accra, he was back at his desk this week. 64th battalion or commandos by regular police officers – also generated The more important issue is that Nduom’s party opposes many of some public sympathy for the former President. In a more inspired the NPP’s liberalising and privatising policies. There are, too, wider move, Addo-Kufuor has redeployed many of the commandos to serve concerns about Ghana’s economic plight in the context of price as US-dollar-earning peacekeepers in the United Nations Mission in pressure on its two main exports – cocoa and gold – and recession in Sierra Leone. Aware that some of the securocrats’ tactics might the USA may slow down its economic recovery plans. backfire, President Kufuor has ordered an inquiry into three incidents Kufuor had little choice but to appoint lawyer Akufo-Addo as Attorney where security officers are alleged to have brutalised the National General, where he has proved to be one of the more effective cabinet Organiser of the Egle Party (formerly linked to the NDC), the residents members. Close to him is the NPP General Secretary, Dan Botwe, who of the Chief’s Palace at Sefwo Wiawso and an unnamed citizen at retained his position at the party conference. Outgoing party Chairman Damongo, who was said to have been stripped naked by police. Last Odoi Sykes is another of Akufo-Addo’s allies. Akufo-Addo has one of the week, a student at Accra Polytechnic was shot by a police officer: this fullest ministerial agendas: the reform of the judicial system and the is also under investigation. establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). Some NPP supporters worry that their government is repeating the The plan has sparked heated debate about its terms of reference. militaristic style of rule for which it had condemned the NDC. One Should it merely cover the years of the Provisional National Defence continuing problem is the underfunding of the police, a legacy of the Council and its successor, the National Democratic Congress regime NDC’s favouring of the military and its own paramilitary units. under Rawlings, or should it date back to the first military coup in 1966 Another is that there is a layer of NDC loyalists within the Bureau of or even back to the Independence government of Kwame Nkrumah? National Intelligence which is trying to undermine the government’s In Nigeria, where such a commission has provided fascinating efforts to bring miscreants to book. testimony but not much truth or reconciliation, President Olusegun Two major cases before the courts – the Quality Grains scandal and Obasanjo’s government agreed to go back to Nigeria’s first military the prosecution of former Deputy Finance Minister Victor Selormey government in 1966. – bear out some of these fears (AC Vol 42 No 8). The investigative The NPP government is reluctant to follow that lead, arguing that there work in both cases has been tortuous and there have been serious errors are more immediate priorities. Its NDC opponents argue that the NPP in preparing the case against the accused. In the Quality Grain case, fears too much delving into the record of Busia’s government and some three former Ministers – of Finance, Agriculture and Local Government of the civilian commissioners in General Ignatius Acheampong’s regime – are to be arraigned before the courts. The NDC is throwing itself into might damage some of the current government’s luminaries. Nor is there their defence, in the hope that if the state prosecution fails, they will a consensus yet on whether Ghana’s TRC should follow the South be handed a propaganda victory. African model whereby those who say they committed human rights Failure at this stage could also damage some of the government’s abuses under political orders are given an amnesty provided that they grander investigations – those into the finances of the 31 December make a full and accurate confession of their misdeeds. Women’s Movement, under the control of former First Lady Nana Akufo-Addo emphasises that once its terms of reference are agreed, Agyeman Rawlings. the TRC would be entirely independent of government. However, the process can hardly avoid political controversy. Human rights activist Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Kwesi Pratt says that at least 400 Ghanaians ‘disappeared’ for Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at political reasons during the PNDC-NDC era and hundreds more were 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, . tortured during periodic security blitzes. Many victims and claimed Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. perpetrators are now willing to return to Ghana with testimony likely Administration: Clare Tauben. to point fingers at senior officials in the NDC and security forces. This remains dangerous territory for the NPP. Defence Minister Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: and presidential brother Kwame Addo-Kufuor has spent much time Institutions: Africa £289 – UK/Europe £310 – USA $780 – ROW £404 and money wooing the military. Many of the Rawlings-era military Corporates: Africa £354 – UK/Europe £373 – USA $864 – ROW £466 commanders have been offered generous retirement packages. The Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £83 or USA $129 popular former Chief of Defence Staff, Ben Akafia, has been appointed All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept Ambassador to Egypt. Addo-Kufuor has authorised a US$2.7 million American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 rehabilitation of the Burma Camp barracks in another morale-boosting 1FH England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 244083 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 381381 move. 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7 31 August 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 17

Dos Santos has groomed no successor but party in 1986 for excessive right-wingness) and Pointers MPLA veteran Mendes de Carvalho highlighted the anti-communist International Freedom some possibles in August. First is MPLA Secretary Foundation, which supported the Nicaraguan General João Lourenço. He has little support Contras, the União Nacional para a Independência NAMIBIA outside the party, so he needs Dos Santos to step Total de Angola and the Afghan Mujahideen. down in his favour, trusting him to keep the lid on Hoile was researcher to pro-Pretoria MP John past murky deals. Also mentioned was Assembly Carlisle and is now researcher to Hunter. The President Roberto de Almeida; ex-Premier parliamentary register of interests lists the client Next, please Marcolino Moco; ex-MPLA SG and Premier of Hoile’s consultancy, Westminster Associates, Those who want be President are emerging from the Lopo de Nascimento; and populist Defence as the Sudan government. His organisations are shadows. He who leads the African Minister Kundi Paihama. De Carvalho failed to the British-Sudanese Public Affairs Council and People’s Organisation leads the nation and the party’s mention Interior Minister Fernando da Piedade European-Sudanese Public Affairs Council: Hoile leadership contest will come at its national congress, Dias dos Santos ‘Nando’, who has similar has said they’re ‘privately funded by several British due next year (AC Vol 42 No 10). strengths and failings as Lourenço: little grassroots and French companies’. The signature on their Sam Nujoma has said that he won’t stand for a support plus closeness to the economic murk. prolific output is that of Hoile, tirelessly opposing fourth five-year term as national President but says he Moco has drawn fire; Lourenço accused him on those who report the multiple atrocities of Sudan’s will remain active in SWAPO; a handy airstrip is the radio of saying the MPLA and UNITA were National Islamic Front regime (AC Vol 42 No 16). being built at Okahao, close to his home village in the ‘flour from the same bag’. Lourenço also said the Ongandjera tribal area in the north. party preferred Do Nascimento, a respected party CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE SWAPO’s new leader will stand in the presidential veteran out of the leadership since politics hardened election due by the end of 2004. Most fancied is after 1998’s return to war. Moco has indicated he Foreign Minister Theo-Ben Gurirab, who failed to might run for president. If he did so against the Long wait be elected secretary general of the new African Union MPLA, he might unite the fractious opposition; a The draft constitution gives the president full in July). A Damara, he lacks the built-in advantage of tough assignment, as it would threaten MPLA executive powers and two consecutive seven-year the two main northern contenders, Kwanyama from barons. But he could attract UNITA officials terms. President Denis Sassou-Nguesso (AC Vol the predominant Oshivambo group: Trade and Industry away from Savimbi, winning many votes. 42 No 7) will refer it to the people this year. With Minister Hidipo Hamutenya and Agriculture’s Lopo, favoured by Luanda moderates, by both main opposition leaders, ex-President Pascal Helmut Angula. Portugal’s ex-Premier Mario Soares and South Lissouba and ex-Premier Bernard Kolélas, still Yet Gurirab, widely respected, does well in African President Thabo Mbeki, leaves political in exile, there are few doubts about a referendum SWAPO internal votes. In August, he made what confrontation with Dos Santos to his allies behind that looks more like a plebiscite. he admitted was his first visit to Kavango in the the scenes, such as MPLA International Secretary Four years after he crushed Lissouba’s forces and north-east, and warned people against collaborating Paulo Jorge and De Carvalho. He appeals to civil returned to power, formal democracy is the condition with the União Nacional para a Independência society. Lopo has to be pro-peace without for full access to aid. The regime promises more Total de Angola, which launches regular cross- advocating direct negotiations: no senior party press freedom and on Independence Day, 15 August, border raids. Kavango, and the four regions carved figure appears to consider negotiating with the Sassou talked the language donors like to hear – the out of former Ovamboland, are SWAPO’s home wily Savimbi, whose latest ploy was to publish a new constitution ‘will be the best instrument to ground and support there could be crucial. letter to the United Nations and the United States defend human rights, the keystone of the renewal In the running SWAPO leadership poll in The agreeing to a ceasefire, peace talks and a which the entire country has awaited for a decade’. Namibian daily newspaper, Gurirab is the clear transitional government. In 1998-99, amid fierce fighting, the rule of law favourite, with over half the readers’ votes – far ahead was not top of Sassou’s agenda. Now he feels of Hamutenya and Premier Hage Geingob, another UK/AFRICA secure – but not with the pre-1997 constitution. Damara presidential contender. Hamutenya keeps a Produced by a national conference which low profile, while Angula has enhanced his status by humiliated him and deposed his Parti Congolais chairing a report on restructuring 20-plus parastatal Birds of a feather du Travail, it gave the president terms of only five companies and promising to recommend a uniform The leadership struggle in Britain’s Conservative years, with considerable executive power for a and transparent salary structure. SWAPO-supporting Party has an African dimension. After one of prime minister needing parliamentary support. public sector unions grumble about the huge salaries right-winger Iain Duncan Smith’s backers was The donors’ distaste for the demagogic Kolélas and perks enjoyed by many top executives. expelled last week from the party for also backing and the eccentrically professorial Lissouba the even-further-right British National Party, outweighs quibbles about Sassou. Earlier this ANGOLA another was frowned upon this week: Andrew year, France quietly helped prevent Kolélas Hunter MP, a member of the Monday Club, turning up in Brazzaville half-way through the which ‘actively encourages financial assistance constitutional talks. Hoping for regional peace, Waiting for the call for voluntary repatriation’ of immigrants and wants Western governments back the World Bank’s cuts in overseas aid. post-conflict packages for both Congos. The President José Eduardo dos Santos announced In 1992 Hunter, as a lobbyist, went to the United States, once sympathetic to Lissouba, has on 23 August that he would not be the ruling Bophuthatswana ‘homeland’, KwaZulu (as a friend begun training Sassou’s soldiers again. Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola’s of Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s Inkatha Freedom Party) Yet the presidential poll, on a date to be candidate at the next election. Few believed him. and Mozambique (as guest of the Mozambique announced once a census is completed, could The poll is unlikely before 2003, so he can wait Institute, which lobbied for Afonso Dhlakama’s prove tricky, especially if Kolélas or Lissouba till his party begs him to stay and then reluctantly Resistência Nacional Moçambicana). Renamo was dares go home. Neither presidential nor accept. He privately admits he is tired, and may then blocking the peace process – which it later parliamentary elections will necessarily be swung genuinely want to retire. But, like Jonas Savimbi signed; Inkatha was fighting the African National by Sassou’s habitual support among the Mbochi of the União Nacional para a Independência Congress under Nelson Mandela – who later made and others from his native centre-north (he’s from Total de Angola, he faces retribution after he loses Buthelezi Vice-President. Oyo, Cuvette) and from soldiers and civil servants. office and he likes to keep his opponents off Based in London, the Mozambique Institute In 1992 he came a poor third, behind Lissouba and guard. By opening up the field, he encourages consisted mainly of David Hoile, a Rhodesian Kolélas. Yet if the pair are kept away, Brazzaville’s potential challengers to declare themselves. and ‘libertarian’. He was active in the Federation strongman will be well on the way to becoming (Savimbi does likewise, in a more direct way.) of Conservative Students (closed down by the the Blaise Compaoré of Central Africa. 8

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