Radicalisation and Deradicalisation in Nigeria: An Analysis of What Works and What Doesn’t Nasir Abubakar Daniya i Radicalisation and Deradicalisation in Nigeria: An Analysis of What Works and What Doesn’t. Nasir Abubakar Daniya Student Number: 13052246 A Thesis Submitted in Fulfilment of Requirements for award of: Professional Doctorate Degree in Policing Security and Community Safety London Metropolitan University Faculty of Social Science and Humanities March 2021 Thesis word count: 104, 482 ii Abstract Since Nigeria’s independence from Britain in 1960, the country has made some progress while also facing some significant socio-economic challenges. Despite being one of the largest producers of oil in the world, in 2018 and 2019, the Brooking Institution and World Poverty Clock respectively ranked Nigeria amongst top three countries with extreme poverty in the World. Muslims from the north and Christians from the south dominate the country; each part has its peculiar problem. There have been series of agitations by the militants from the south to break the country due to unfair treatments by the Nigerian government. They produced multiple violent groups that killed people and destroyed properties and oil facilities. In the North, an insurgent group called Boko Haram emerges in 2009; they advocated for the establishment of an Islamic state that started with warning that, western education is prohibited. Reports say the group caused death of around 100,000 and displaced over 2 million people. As such, Niger Delta Militancy and Boko Haram Insurgency have been major challenges being faced by Nigeria for about a decade. To address such challenges, the Nigerian government introduced separate counterinsurgency interventions called Presidential Amnesty Program (PAP) and Operation Safe Corridor (OSC) in 2009 and 2016 respectively, which are both aimed at curtailing Militancy and Insurgency respectively. This thesis examines effectiveness of the two counterinsurgency interventions. The research looked at what works and what doesn’t work in the two interventions with a view to evaluate their effectiveness and effects that caused the outcome. The thesis also aimed at providing guide on designing an innovative framework that utilizes the evidence base generated to make better decisions when designing and implementing future deradicalisation programs in Nigeria. On the methodology deployed, the research used mixed method; both qualitative and quantitative techniques used. Stratified sampling method was adopted. Interviews, including focus group and questionnaires were the core primary data collection mechanisms used. Findings shows that although there is limited progress and positive effects after introducing the two interventions, major causes of problems that led to further escalation of violence in the two regions recently include corruption, poverty, illiteracy, and ignorance of religious teachings. Broad conclusions were that the PAP is ineffective because the system currently in place is not working; it is corrupt, lacks clarity and is not backed up by an act of Nigeria’s National Assembly. It was additionally caused by unfair resource allocation and non-clean-up of oil spillage in the region. Similarly, OSC is ineffective because the intervention was so ambiguous with no realistically achievable strategic plan and no timeline of action in place. Illiteracy and poverty affect insurgents. OSC is also not backed by an act of Nigeria’s National Assembly. Meaning that another subsequent government might decide to quash the two interventions in the future due to lack of enabling laws. Despite government’s claim that over 30,000 people enrolled into the two interventions, as at the time of compiling this thesis, the report by the Nigerian Military stated that less than 500 people were reintegrated into the society under OSC. Overall, the thesis found that the two interventions didn’t work, thus making both ineffective. One of the key contributions by the researcher of this research is the introduction of Identify, Prepare, Prevent, Pursue, Protect and Evaluate (IPPPPE) framework, which is designed to guide the Nigerian government and other stakeholders with better options when designing and implementing future counterinsurgency and deradicalisation programs. Key words: Amnesty, Boko Haram, COIN, CONTEST, Counterradicalisation, Insurgency, IPPPPE, JTF, JMTF, NNA, Niger Delta, OSC, PAP, PPPP. iii Dedication In memory of Lt. Col. Abu-Ali (late), Lt. Col Otos Umusu (late); Leah Sharibu (alive, but in Boko Haram captivity after being kidnapped in Dapchi); and all the fallen heroes that lost their lives at the ‘front-line’ and the ones currently standing tall in the fight against insurgency and militancy at the Niger Delta, the Northeast Regions and other parts of the country, Nigeria respectively. I couldn’t have the opportunity to serve the Nigerian military, but I have been fighting alongside you in my mind, heart, soul and prayers, always. iv Acknowledgement It would be unfair not to acknowledge 100% support of my Mother Hafsat Sahabi Daniya ‘Kilo’, and that of my late Father Alhaji Abubakar Daniya, The ‘Driver’, whom despite being a driver provided all that I needed to be a Man. He died while I was on podium collecting ‘iCONS’ award at University of Northampton, United Kingdom in 2012. May his soul rest in peace, amin. There’s no word enough to express how joyful and fulfilled I am to have completed this thesis under direct supervision of lead supervisor Dr Adegbola Ojo, Man, you’re one of a kind. I felt secure, comfortable and very hopeful under your guidance. You treated me like a Brother, Son and Protégé. I am proud of the levels you have pushed me to attain. May God continue to bless you ‘Prof’. Appreciations also to my second supervisor Dr Dermot McCann. Thanks for all the guidance and support. To my Family, Wives Murjanatu Dalhatu and Halima Yusuf Jega (Ex Wife), to my Kids Fareeedah, Fusaylah, Farhaana, Fawzaan, Farouk, Faheema, Yusuf & Fajrah. I appreciate your perseverance for taking away your invaluable time while pursuing this Doctorate Degree. The journey has been tough but equally rewarding, Alhamdulillah! Accept my everlasting love to you all. Top of the honourable mentions are my direct siblings: the Daniya’s; Sanusi (late), Kabir, Bello, Buhari, Murjanatu, Shafa’atu, Zalihatu and Khadeeja (late). Let me say a louder ‘shout out’ to the following erudite; Professor Nasir M.Yauri, Professor Ogundiya and Professor Muhammad. J Kuna, all from of Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto, Nigeria, and Dr Mustapha Bintube from the Nigerian National Assembly for their one-on-one guidance and the literature they provided to me respectively in the early stages of this research. Let me also appreciate Jamilu Sani for his hands-on help in typing and restructuring the thesis chapters. I would like to appreciate Sokoto State Government for its support over this academic pursuit. Special thanks to Nasir Shehu Zarummai (RIP), Faruk Shehu, Manir Muhammad Dan Iya, Umar Ibrahim Sokoto, Abubakar Chika Yabo, Abba Muhammad, Sani Muhammad Tambuwal etc. My appreciation to the John Grieve Centre for Policing and Community Safety, London Metropolitan University and its entire staff for the support and cooperation during this journey. I highly appreciate the cooperation of the office of the Presidential Amnesty Program, Abuja, staff of Operation Safe Corridor, especially staff of the Nigerian Military, the Nigeria Police Force and all other paramilitary and security agencies that participated in this research. My appreciation also goes to civilian volunteers including victims of militancy and insurgency, NGOs, ex Militants and ex Boko Haram members that responded to this research interviews or questionnaires. To pessimistic naysayers that doubted my conviction in pursuit of this Doctorate Degree, this is my response and indeed the answer to your negativity. I thank God almighty that this journey has ended successfully. To all my lecturers, academic and non-academic staff at my former Universities and higher institutions like the University of Oxford, the University of East London, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, London Metropolitan University, ‘Sokpoly’ and indeed where it all started, the University of Wales Lampeter; Diolch yn fawr iawn! v Table of Contents Cover Page…………………………………………………………………………………………………… i Title Page…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ii Abstract……………………………………………………………………………….……………………… iii Dedication……………………………………………………………………………………………………. iv Acknowledgement…………………………………………………………………………………………… v Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………………………………. vi List of Tables……………………………………………………………………….………………………….x List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………………………………xi List of Acronyms…………………………………………………………………………………………….. xii 1. CHAPTER 1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………… 1 1.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………1 1.2 Chapters Synopsis……………………………………………………………………………..2 1.3 Research Aim…………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 1.4 Research Objectives…………………………………………………………………………………… 4 1.5 Scope of Research……………………………………………………………………………………… 4 1.6 Structure of the Thesis………………………………………………………………………………… 5 1.7 The Relationship of this Investigation to Previous Intellectual Work…………………………… 6 1.8 Radicalisation, Counterradicalisation, Deradicalisation and Reradicalisation In Nigeria… .8 1.9 Terrorism and Insurgencies…………………………………………………………………………..12 1.10 Summary……………………………………………………………………..………………………….13 2. CHAPTER 2 Radicalism and