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Conflict Barometer 2019, Heidelberg 2019 disputes non-violent crises violent crises limited wars wars No. 28 Copyright © 2020 HIIK All rights reserved. Printed in Heidelberg, Germany. The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK), associated with the Institute of Political Science of Heidelberg University, is a registered non-profit association. It is dedicated to the research, evaluation, and documentation of political conflicts worldwide. The HIIK evolved from the 1991 research project COSIMO (Conflict Simulation Model), led by Prof. Dr. Frank R. Pfetsch, University of Heidelberg, and financed by the German Research Foundation (DFG). For more information please visit our website: www.hiik.de HIIK Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research CONFLICT BAROMETER I2019 Analyzed Period: 01/01/19 – 12/31/19 PREFACE With the 28th edition of the Conflict Barometer, the HIIK continues its annual series of reports covering political conflict dynamics and developments worldwide. Despite a slight decrease compared to 2018, this year was marked by the continuation of many highly violent conflicts. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Maghreb (MENA) region, and the Americas, 15 conflicts were fought on a war level. Of these, two intrastate conflicts in the DR Congo’s northeastern provinces, the drug trafficking conflict in Brazil, as well as the conflict spurred by Islamist groups in the Sahel zone escalated to full-scale wars. In total, 23 limited wars were observed worldwide. Six violent crises in Sudan, Mozambique, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Iraq escalated to limited wars. Meanwhile, the wars between farmers and pastoralists in Nigeria, militias and the government of the DR Congo, as well as the inner-opposition conflict in Syria de-escalated to limited wars. The global trend towards an increase of non-violent conflicts continued in 2019. Overall, 162 of the 358 total observed conflicts played out on a non-violent level. Furthermore, international media coverage particularly shed light on this year’s salient social and anti-government protests, notably in Chile, Hong Kong, and Iraq. For the third consecutive year, the Spotlight section complements our descriptive approach to conflict dynamics with an emphasis on their internal and external influences. The Spotlights, for example, analyze the impact of progressive militarization of police forces on France’s Gillet Jaunes protests, as well as the influence of international sanctions on the government’s minority policies in Myanmar. This year also marks our institute’s 30th anniversary. In 1990, the HIIK emerged out of a project on conflict analysis financed by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and the Gesellschaft für Mathematik und Datenverarbeitung (GMD) at Heidelberg University. For the last three decades, the continuous professionalization of systematic data collection and the development of a distinctive methodological approach has allowed researchers, policymakers, and the public to engage with conflicts on a five-level intensity scale, ranging from disputes to violent crises and wars. We are thrilled that our institute has provided and will continue to provide a framework for research on political conflicts worldwide, and that it has contributed to a better understanding of global conflict developments and dynamics. The Board of Directors would like to thank all those who contributed to this report for their outstanding efforts, especially during the final stages of editing. It is your commitment that makes a publication like this possible, and enables the institute to grow. The Board of Directors Marit Braunschweig, Anna Feiereisen, Ronja Gottschling, Michael Hebeisen, Ruben Ilyas, Mayely Müller Heidelberg, March 2020 AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE Thomas Cranshaw ............................... (tcr) Julia Schmidt .......................................... (jus) Theresa Rettner ................................... (tre) Viktoria Palm ...................................... (vpa) Jonas Schmitt ......................................... (jos) Nicola Röhm ......................................... (nrö) Emil Unrath ........................................ (eun) Jakob Schultz ......................................... (jas) Nina Kathrin Rösler ........................... (nro) Damyana Veleva ............................... (dve) Alisa Seufert .......................................... (ase) Patrick Rüppel ..................................... (prü) Amélie Wieczorek ............................. (awi) Hanna Swartzendruber..................... (hss) Krishna Kumar Saha ......................... (kks) Benjamin Alvensleben ......................... (bal) Miya Takada .......................................... (mta) Annika Sauer ........................................ (asa) Julia Barandun ......................................... (jub) Thordis Weber ..................................... (twe) Robin Lockyer-von Dorrien ........... (rdl) Anna-Lea Beyer........................................ (alb) Johanna Wecht ..................................... (jwe) Nita Schaub .......................................... (nsc) Cara Bien ..................................................... (cbi) Jana Winter ............................................. (jwi) Thomas Schmid ...................................(ths) Jan Hendrik Blass ................................... (jhb) Felix Scholl ............................................ (fsc) Simone Drews ..........................................(sdr) THE AMERICAS Thomas Siurkus .................................... (tsi) Eduard Ebert ........................................... (eeb) Maximilian Brien ............................ (mbr) Hugo Sommer .................................... (hso) Marius Ellermann .................................. (mel) Ana Gonzalez ................................... (ago) Estella Tambini Stollwerck ............. (est) Helena Fabricius...................................... (hla) Claudia Pinzón................................. (cpn) Céline Sun............................................. (csu) Hanna Grininger ..................................... (hgr) Maximilian Herrmann .................. (mah) Eva Süss ................................................. (evs) Nijat Imran................................................... (nji) Charlotte Aebischer ........................... (cae) Leonie Vandersee .............................. (lva) Philip Lott .................................................. (plo) Raphael Bodewing .............................. (rbo) Stephanie Verlaan.............................. (stv) Tijana Lujic ..................................................(tlu) Mara Bolay ............................................ (mbo) Sofie Vetter .......................................... (sov) Markus Christoph Müller ................. (mcm) Leander von Detten ............................ (lvd) Eleanor Wong .................................... (ewo) Clara Peckelhoff ...................................... (clp) Martin Dudenhöffer ......................... (mdh) Fan Yin .................................................... (fyn) Sebastian Peter ....................................... (spe) Sara Engelberg-Joumaa.................... (sen) Fanny Schardey ....................................... (fas) Roemer Goes ......................................... (gro) THE MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Christos Sotiri .......................................... (chs) Franziska Gottwald ............................. (fgo) Siad Akkam ..................................... (ska) Silvia Steininger....................................... (sst) Brenda Holz .......................................... (bho) Anina Harter.................................... (aht) Jacob Thaler ...............................................(jth) Lena Jülich............................................... (lju) Johannes Hermann ....................... (jhe) Melina Topic ............................................ (met) Theresa Kofler ........................................ (tk) Philipp Müller ............................... (pmu) Mina Trpkovic .......................................... (mtr) Santiago Moncada ............................ (smo) Hanna Swartzendruber ................ (hss) Sofie Vetter ............................................... (sov) Tania Muscio......................................... (tmu) Martin Webeler ........................... (mwe) Michael Männel................................. (mgm) Yasmin Al-Douri ................................ (yad) SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Julia Pivato .............................................. (jpi) Nico Arnold........................................... (nar) Marit Braunschweig ......................... (mab) Eileen Roth ............................................. (ero) Eva Bitsch .............................................. (ebi) Anna Feiereisen ................................. (anf) Samed Sahin .......................................... (ssa) Mostafa Bostani................................(mob) Marilena Geugjes ............................. (mag) Hans Stanka ............................................ (hst) Lukas Eger ..............................................(leg) Levin Husen ........................................ (lhu) Mario Wolf ........................................... (mwo) Henryc Fels ........................................... (hfe) Lennard Naumann ............................. (len) Petra Freudenberger ......................... (pfr) Lisa Waldheim ........................................(li) ASIA AND OCEANIA
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