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Fremtidens Forsvar Fremtidens forsvar Hovedbind Beretning fra Forsvarskommissionen af 1997 Indholdsfortegnelse Indholdsfortegnelse Indledning . .5 Resumé . .15 De sikkerhedspolitiske præmisser, del 1 . 17 De sikkerhedspolitiske præmisser, del 2 . 23 Forsvarets formål og opgaver . 28 Forsvarets udvikling . 34 Hæren . 37 Søværnet . 42 Flyvevåbnet . 48 Værnsfælles område . 54 Hjemmeværnet . 56 Kapitel 1 - De sikkerhedspolitiske præmisser . .63 Indledning . 65 Den sikkerhedspolitiske udvikling . 67 Forsvarets rolle og den udvidede sikkerhedsdagsorden . 83 Kapitel 2 - Forsvarets formål og opgaver . .103 Indledning . 105 Det nuværende lovgrundlag . 106 Opgaver for forsvaret primært forbundet med direkte sikkerhed . 110 Opgaver for forsvaret primært forbundet med indirekte sikkerhed . 115 Andre opgaver, herunder myndighedsudøvelse mv. 118 Dansk forsvars fremtidige opgaver . 120 Forsvaret af nærområdet og den internationale indsats . 122 Anbefaling . 125 Kapitel 3 - Forsvarets udvikling . .129 Indledning . 131 Grundlaget for forsvarets aktuelle situation . 133 Forhold af generel betydning . 149 Materiel . 170 Sammenfatning . 173 Overordnet udvikling af forsvaret . 174 Forsvarets fremtidige kapacitetsbehov og udviklingsmuligheder . 177 Kapitel 4 - Hæren . .183 Indledning . 185 Status for hæren . 186 Hærens udvikling . 211 Anbefaling . 232 Kapitel 5 - Søværnet . .237 Indledning . 239 Status for søværnet . 240 3 Indholdsfortegnelse Søværnets udvikling . 263 Anbefaling . 293 Kapitel 6 - Flyvevåbnet . .297 Indledning . 299 Status for flyvevåbnet . 300 Flyvevåbnets udvikling . 327 Anbefaling . 350 Kapitel 7 - Værnsfælles område . .353 Indledning . 355 Status for det værnsfælles område . 356 Udvikling af det værnsfælles område . 368 Anbefaling . 371 Kapitel 8 - Hjemmeværnet . .373 Indledning . 375 Hjemmeværnets situation . 377 Behovet for hjemmeværnet . 389 Udvikling af hjemmeværnet . 393 Anbefaling . 404 Tillæg til Forsvarskommissionens beretning . .407 Særudtalelse af fhv. minister Hans Engell, MF, Det Konservative Folkeparti . 409 Særudtalelse af folketingsmedlem Tom Behnke, Fremskridtspartiet . 412 Særudtalelse af folketingsmedlem Jørgen Estrup, Det Radikale Venstre . 414 Særudtalelse af folketingsmedlem Søren Søndergaard, Enhedslisten . 422 Særudtalelse af folketingsmedlem Villy Søvndal, Socialistisk Folkeparti . 429 Særudtalelse af overarkivar Hans Christian Bjerg . 441 Ordliste . .445 Stikordsregister . .451 4 Indledning Indledning 5 Indledning Forsvarskommissionens nedsættelse og kommissorium Som led i aftalen af 8. december 1995 om forsvarets ordning 1995-1999 besluttedes det at nedsætte Forsvarskommissionen af 1997. Kommissionen blev nedsat med følgende kommissorium: »Kommissionen skal med udgangspunkt i Lov af 8. december 1993 om forsvarets formål, opgaver og organisation mv. overveje, hvilke ændringer heraf der måtte være nødvendige i lyset af den sikkerhedspolitiske udvikling. Der udarbejdes en trusselsvurdering. Overvejelserne skal baseres på forudsætningen om et fortsat aktivt dansk medlemskab af FN, OSCE og NATO som grundlag for dansk forsvars- og sikkerhedspolitik. Kommissionen skal bl.a. foretage en afvejning af forsvaret af nærområdet i forhold til den inter- nationale indsats. Kommissionen skal endvidere vurdere indstillingen fra Udvalget vedrørende forsvarets materiel. På baggrund heraf og i fortsættelse af kommissionens eventuelle forslag til ændring af forsvarets formål, opgaver og struktur fremsættes forslag til større materielanskaffelser i de kommende år. Kommissionen kan tilkalde sagkyndige og afgive delindstillinger, i det omfang det findes hensigts- mæssigt. Kommissionen forudsættes at give de faglige organisationer mulighed for at fremsætte synspunkter, der kan indgå i udvalgets overvejelser. Kommissionens redegørelse skal kunne danne grundlag for forhandlinger mellem forligspartierne om indgåelse af et forsvarsforlig for en periode efter 1999. Kommissionen påbegynder sit arbejde primo 1997 og forudsættes at afslutte arbejdet inden udgan- gen af 1998.« Et kommende forsvarsforlig, herunder forsvarets fremtidige økonomiske rammer, skal forhandles mellem partierne, og Forsvarskommissionen har ikke anset det for sin opgave. Som led i aftalen om forsvarets ordning 1995-1999 blev det endvidere besluttet at nedsætte et udvalg vedrørende forsvarets materiel, hvis forslag til større anskaffelser af materielsystemer og hovedmaterielgenstande skulle kunne indgå i arbejdet i Forsvarskommissionen. Udvalget afslut- tede sit arbejde i august 1997, og dets »Rapport fra Udvalget vedrørende forsvarets materiel« har dannet udgangspunkt for Forsvarskommissionens overvejelser om større materielanskaffelser. Forsvarskommissionens sammensætning Kommissionen blev sammensat af politikere, repræsentanter for forsvaret og særligt sagkyndige. Som formand for kommissionen blev udpeget fhv. minister Knud Heinesen. Politikerne blev udpe- get af respektive folketingsgrupper med en repræsentant og en stedfortræder for hvert parti, begge medlemmer af folketinget. Folketingsvalget den 11. marts 1998 medførte en række ændringer i den politiske del af kommissionen. Kommissionen har haft følgende sammensætning (navnene ud for de enkelte pinde angiver kom- missionens sammensætning ved arbejdets afslutning): 6 Indledning Formand: – Fhv. minister Knud Heinesen Politikere: – Forsvarsminister Hans Hækkerup, MF – Fhv. minister Hans Engell, MF, Det Konservative Folkeparti (fra marts 1998) Folketingsmedlem Jens Jørgensen, Det Konservative Folkeparti (til marts 1998) Folketingsmedlem Niels Ahlmann-Ohlsen, Det Konservative Folkeparti (til april 1997) – Fhv. minister Arne Melchior, MF, Centrum-Demokraterne – Fhv. minister Jann Sjursen, MF, Kristeligt Folkeparti (fra marts 1998) – Folketingsmedlem Tom Behnke, Fremskridtspartiet (fra marts 1998) Folketingsmedlem Annette Just, Fremskridtspartiet (til marts 1998) – Folketingsmedlem Jørgen Estrup, Det Radikale Venstre – Folketingsmedlem Svend Aage Jensby, Venstre (fra marts 1998) Fhv. minister Knud Enggaard, MF, Venstre (til marts 1998) – Folketingsmedlem Pia Kjærsgaard, Dansk Folkeparti – Folketingsmedlem Ingrid Rasmussen, Socialdemokratiet – Folketingsmedlem Søren Søndergaard, Enhedslisten – Folketingsmedlem Villy Søvndal, Socialistisk Folkeparti Repræsentanter for forsvaret: – Departementschefen i Forsvarsministeriet, Anders Troldborg – Forsvarschefen, general Christian Hvidt – Chefen for Forsvarsstaben, generalløjtnant Ove H.-G. Hoff – Chefen for Forsvarsstabens Planlægningsstab, generalmajor Jan Scharling – Chefen for Hjemmeværnet, generalmajor Ulf Scheibye (fra marts 1998) Chefen for Hjemmeværnet, generalmajor Jørgen Sverker Nilsson (til marts 1998) – Chefen for Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, generalmajor Jørgen O. Hjorth Særligt sagkyndige: – Overarkivar Hans Christian Bjerg – Departementsråd i Statsministeriet, ambassadør Niels Egelund – Lektor Birthe Hansen – Forskningschef, professor Bertel Heurlin – Konsulent Hans Møller Kristensen – Generalmajor Karsten J. Møller – Professor Nikolaj Petersen – Politisk direktør i Udenrigsministeriet, ambassadør Per Poulsen-Hansen – Lektor Mette Skak – Seniorforsker Ole Wæver Stedfortrædere: – Fhv. minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, MF, Venstre (fra marts 1998) Folketingsmedlem Svend Aage Jensby,.
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