President's Council (1991) 'Report of the Three Committees of the President's Council on a National Environmental Management System'. Government Printer, Cape Town. CHAPTER SEVEN Quinlan T (1993a) 'Environmental Impact Assessment in : Good in Principle, Poor in Practice?' South Afican Journal of Science, Vol 89. Quinlan T (1993b) 'The Educational Agenda of Sustainable Development and the Potential of Video in Environmental Education'. Perspectives in Education, Vol 14 No 1. Ramphele M and McDowell C (1991) Restoring the Land: Environment and Change in Post-Apartheid South Afica. Panos, London. MIGRATION INTO DFR Rogerson C (1992) 'Sustainable Urban Development in South Africa - Issues and Problems'. Regional Development Dialogue, Vol 13, No 4. INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS: Thornton R and Ramphele M (1988) 'the Quest for Community', in Boonzaier E and Sharp J (eds) South Afican Keywords. David Philip, Cape Town.

Zimbabwe Trust (1990) 'People, Wildlife and Natural Resources - The CAMPFIRE Approach AN OVERVIEW OF TRENDS to Rural Development in Zimbabwe'. the Zimbabwe Trust, Harare.

By Catherine Cross, Simon Bekker and Craig Clark

The success of South Africa's transition to democracy depends upon the success with which the demands of the black urban population for amenities to which they have previously had limited access can be realised. This urban need is now largely focused on informal settlements, which have become home to a large and increasing population.

To satisfy the aspirations of informally housed people, state and private sector planning and development agencies will require a subtle appreciation of the dynamics which exist on the ground in such areas.

Information is lacking regarding the character of the informal population. Surveys indicate that the informal population is heterogeneous, underscoring the importance of understanding the factors which determine needs in areas against the overall context of the urbanisation process.

This report draws upon five recent attempts to contribute to this important process of inquiry. These are four studies of migration into informal settlements undertaken by Cross et a1 in the western, northern, central and southern zones of the Functional Region (DFR), and a study which synthesised the data from these four investigations into a general ove~ewof migration.

i CHAPTER 6 E CHAPTER 7 The sample includes 18 settlements and 1 057 households in separate migrants move around within urban areas and may even move back to freestanding and infill informal settlements as well as backyard shacks rural areas. Two alternative models for urbanisation have been proposed and infill in formal townships, and rental tenancy in row housing in for the developing world: Clermont township. A township closely associated with its surrounding

settlements, Klaanvater in , was also compared. @ Oscillatory migration, in terms of which rural to urban migrants are unable to acquire the security sought after in the urban area, and In the western zone 263 households were surveyed in Tshelimnyama, so continually move back and forth between an urban base and a Mpola, Dassenhoek and St Wendolins; in the northern zone 264 households rural one in Lindelani, Amatikwe, Bhambayi and Nhlungwane; in the central zone @ Circulatory migration, in terms of which the migrant continues to 230 families in , Kennedy Road, Briardene, Block AK, live in the urban area, but engages in constant on-migration between backyard shacks and Clermont rental; and in the southern zone 300 different urban locations. families in Bottlebrush, Umgababa, Geza, Mgaga and Umlazi infill. Oscillatory migration is widely reported throughout the developing world, and extensive work on the phenomenon has been done in Kenya. Apart MIGRATION TRENDS: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK from the insecurity of the urban base, an important factor explaining oscillatory migration is status in the rural base. According to Stark: It is often mistakenly assumed that the increase in the urban population ".. . for quite a long period of time after moving to the urban sector, of the DFR is a consequence of a decrease in the rural population of migrants retain a strong degree of identification, allegiance and social KwaZulu-Natal. This is not completely true: natural increase in urban connectedness with their village of origin. Their social status and areas contributes substantially to the growth of the urban population, prestige depend on their standing in their home village...". while the rural population continues to grow. Circulatory migration is more complex, reflecting the degree to which But it is also true, as Rogerson notes, that urban populations are growing local conditions govern access to settlement opportunities. Few migrants faster than rural ones, and the proportion of the total population living move directly from a rural home into an urban area and thereafter remain in urban areas is increasing. For this reason, rural to urban migration in place. Instead, many moves take place after the household's arrival remains a major component of urban population growth. in the urban area. These moves count as intra-urban, as Mabin points out, although those involved may be mostly rural born. Several different models of rural to urban migration have been proposed. The classical model is Todaro's, which is based on the premise that The importance of understanding which form applies to urban areas is migration to urban areas is a rational decision arising from a perception self evident: different types of migration result in different expectations that there are more and better paying opportunities for economic activity and needs among new arrivals in an area. The results of the present in urban areas than in rural ones. series of migration studies undertaken by the Rural-Urban Studies Unit at the University of Natal suggest that continued on-migration is one of For Todaro, urbanisation is a one way flow: individuals and household the hallmarks of migration into settlements in the DFR. migrants remain in urban areas. This approach is also evident in models that emphasise the gravity flow principle based on distance and trip The data suggests that the most important migration process in the DFR time in relation to the attraction of the destination, and tend to assume is intra-urban migration. It also appears that the informal population is that the population is in stable equilibrium after arrival. spatially unstable, and that rural to urban migrant households continue to migrate within the urban area after their arrival. The Todaro model and the simple gravity flow concept have been challenged in the developing world by extensive empirical evidence which suggests An important point needs to be made about the character of rural to that urban populations are not in fact spatially stable: rural to urban urban migration in the DFR right from the outset. The rate of arrival in

CHAPTER 7 k - CHAPTER 7 the DFR appears to have reached a maximum, and may even be tapering been a considerable spatial displacement of population inside the DFR off. For this reason, the most pressing problem confronting city since that date. This movement represents on-migration. management is not an anticipated wave of influx, but continuing in-migration from rural areas together with the size and needs of the The long delay involved in urban on-migration can be seen when one existing informally housed population. compares the date of arrival of households and individuals in the DFR with the date of arrival in their current settlements. In the western DFR settlements, according to Cross, only one in five households had arrived MIGRATION PROCESSES IN DFR SETTLEMENTS in the settlement since 1986, but this is in an established and relatively stable area which exerts firm control over the influx of outsiders. Migration into DFR informal settlements appears to be a complex process. In Inanda in the north, some 54% of people have entered their settlements The migration process seems to be opportunistic, with migrants taking since 1986. The figures for the southern and central zones were 78% advantage of opportunities as they arise. and 89% respectively. In the central and some southern settlements, most of the population has arrived since 1989. It is clear that the easing Rural individuals and households arrive in metropolitan informal of the state's attitude to land occupation and invasion is largely responsible settlements by complicated routes. Survey results indicate that not all for the younger settlements of the central DFR. settlements are equally acceptable or open as destinations for rural to urban or intra-urban migrants. The age and size of the settlement may channel different prospective entrants into settlements of given types. O Rates of Entry into the DFR The possibility of onward migration by a household in possession of a z Entry into the DFR appears to have taken place on a relatively smooth, 0 site is related to a number of other factors, most significantly the location - of the other site, the availability and levels of service delivery and slightly rising curve up to 1986. It is difficult to tell whether or not a infrastructure, and the perceived likelihood of violence in the new area. significant further rise in rural to urban migration is taking place, and G it is likely that the 1960s and 1970s are underestimated. In-migrants oe from this period will have been thinned by natural attrition and by c!J- O Arrival of Rural Migrants return migration, leaving behind children who now count as urban born. Zi

It is widely assumed that the high proportion of informal settlers in the If assessed at the point of first entry to the DFR, there appears to be DFR represents a recent wave of rural to urban migration after the an increase in rural to urban migration since 1986, but a very slight scrapping of influx control in early 1986. However, by far the majority one. It is also unclear whether or not this rising trend has flattened out of the present informal population - 83% - was in the DFR before 1986. (Table 1). It appears that the anticipated massive increase in rural to urban migration following the abolition of influx control has not eventuated. Early entry into the DFR is not evenly distributed across all the informal settlement complexes. Younger settlements in the central DFR have the Instead the rate of migration may be fluctuating over time. Rural to lowest percentage of households who arrived in Durban before influx urban migration may have climbed gradually until very recently, or may control was lifted, while the settlements of the western periphery at be continuing to climb. It appears to have increased slowly through the Mariannhill have the highest, at nearly 97%. Around one in five households 1960s from a base level of about 1% a year to around 4% by 1970. in the southern DFR arrived after the lifting of influx control, and 8% in the northern periphery. Only one settlement, Block AK in central The recorded migration rates indicate that migration was high at some Durban, had a majority of relatively recent arrivals. 8% in 1980, but then declined to 6% from 1984 to 1985. Thereafter recorded in-migration climbed again to around 9% in 1988 and 1989. This is not to assume that the informally housed have been established It appears migration has declined since then: Cross et al estimate a in their present settlements since prior to 1986. There appears to have figure of 6% for 1991. Table 1 Year of Arrival for DFR In-Migrant Table 2 Origins of the DFR Informal Population. Area where Respondents were Born Informal Population now in Place. Percentage distribution (percentages rounded: do not add to 100%) * denotes percentage less than 1 Oj0 / Year entered DFR % Year entered DFR % Year entered DFR % 1 I

Pre F946 3 1946 - 47 * 1948 - 49 1

Dbn central 2 3 2 2 2 2 * 1 * * Outer Dbn Southern urban 1 2 5 13 7 5 Northern urban * 2 1 10 5 12 9 * 6 3 3 19 Western urban 58 24 35 All Urban 61 26 \r 23 24 Southern peri-urban 4 4 4 8 5 5 * * * Northern peri-urban * 2 * Western ~eri-urban 1 3 1 1990 - 91 6 7; 5 (1 991 data incomplete) All peri-urban 5 7 5 8 1 Western urban perph 7 4 3 3 3 1 South coast North coast URBAN AND RURAL SOURCES OF MIGRATION South nearer rural North nearer rural The sources of the survey population are shown in Table 2. Only 0,3% South rural interior North rural interior of the informally housed DFR population were born in the areas where Transkei they resided at the time of the survey. Thus by far the majority of them Outside NatalITkei are migrants, but not all are of rural origin. A substantial percentage TOTAL 99 102 101 99 100 " 99 in fact appear to be of urban origin. For the most part these households N= 302 264 230 300 . 794 1 096 represent people who have been unable to secure formal accommodation (Source:Cross et al 1994 in press) in the townships.

Most of the adult populations of settlements - 65% - appear to be non-urban a negligible 2%, but these may be under reported. The informal population in origin. Nearly half of the remaining 35% who are urban in origin are is thus predominantly from KwaZulu-Natal or Transkei, and is mostly found in settlements in the western Mariannhill area. For the northern of rural origin, although there is a substantial urban origin component. settlements at Inanda, the younger central settlements and the southern area, the adult informal population is 76% non-urban in origin. The dynamics of the urbanisation process are importantly influenced by these O The Urban Component differences between settlement zones. A very small percentage of the DFR's informal population originates in The most important areas of origin for the DFR informal population are the formerly white central city itself. This is likely to undergo profound the rural districts of former Natal, which contribute some 46% of the change over the next 25 years: it is in this area that settlement is informal population. At some 5%, the peri-urban districts are relatively consolidating, and challenging the urban spatial morphology of the classical less significant sources of inflow, as is the Transkei at 8%.The contribution 'apartheid city' first described by Davies. from other former homelands and countries outside South Africa represent The balance of the urban origin informal population come from large formal townships in the northern, southern and western urban districts. northern outer rural areas. Outflows of less than 5% characterise the Urban origin is concentrated in the western zone, where 58% of informal central city districts, the western urban area centred on , the western urban periphery centred on Pietermaritzburg, the northern and settlers are drawn from the townships of the western periphery and western peri-urban districts, the southern outer rural districts, and all Pietermaritzburg. If one excludes Marianhill, the contribution of the urban areas outside Natal other than Transkei, according to Cross et al. townships to the population of the DFR settlements declines.

Overall, some 24% of the adult population of settlements excluding the The informal population thus has tended to migrate into the DFR from western zone may be said to be of urban origin. According to Cross, the areas closely linked to Durban and within reach of transport connections which lead into the city. What also characterises the sending areas is outlying peri-urban areas of the DFR, which are mostly located in the a more mobilised economy and a relatively higher population. former KwaZulu, contribute a total of 7%, mostly from the southern peri-urban region. Of far smaller significance than expected were the densely populated The origins and migration behaviour of the population of the Pinetown KwaZulu peri-urban districts surrounding Durban. The last 10 to 15 and Mariannhill area suggest that this is a separate and semi-sealed years have seen population transfers out of remote rural KwaZulu into population which is predominantly local and urban. Clearly, it is the these peri-urban areas, which offer access to the job market and amenities large Durban settlements which are receiving the bulk of the region's of Durban, without involving the important adjustments to urban lifestyle. rural to urban migration. It would appear that KwaZulu's peri-urban periphery has so far provided acceptable access to urban goods. This may change as serviced land in and near the city centre becomes more available, and becomes known z O The Rural Component to be more available. These areas are embraced by urban information 0 networks, and it is possible that part of the peri-urban population may The southern Natal region contributes some 22% of the informally housed migrate into the urban core in the near to medium future. population of the DFR, a significant source of population. Most of this OT5 comes from southern rural districts on the borders of KwaZulu and (3 nearest to the city, which provide 11% of the DFR informal population. - Some 2% come from the southern interior rural districts, and the remaining DIRECT AND INDIRECT MIGRATION E 9% from the south coast. Rural to urban migration into informal areas includes both indirect and The northern Natal region is somewhat more significant, at 24%. Some direct population flows. Rural to urban migrants may follow a sequence 14% of the DFR informal population originates in the northern nearer of indirect moves in a scouting process until a relatively satisfactory rural districts, with 5% each coming from the northern rural interior place is located. Later direct migration by a pipeline process from the and the north coast districts. rural area into the new locality will depend on connections established by the initial indirect scouting and staging process, resulting in local colonies of in-migrants from the same home areas. O Overview of Origin Areas Indirect migration appears to take place by several moves. Once migrants The most important population sources for informal settlements of the have arrived in an area, many or most moves seem to be staged from DFR, contributing more than 7% of the total population, are the peripheral nearby. With pressure building up in the freestanding settlements and urban areas in the north, comprising the northern townships and informal sites more difficult to obtain, an increasing percentage of new entrants areas, the south coast, the nearer rural areas to the north and south, appear to stage their moves from areas immediately adjacent to the new and the Transkei. Outflows of between 5% and 7% come from the southern site. Around 20% to 25% of people may now be arriving in settlements urban areas, the southern peri-urban districts, the north coast and the from directly adjacent townships or other residential areas. Only 29% of the total in-migration from rural areas was direct: the Table 3 Dates of Activity for Zones Sending and Receiving Population remaining 71% was indirect. To transfer people on any scale, the pipeline 1 ! formation process seems to depend on the location of the urban base in a well known, and therefore both larger and older, urban area. Direct migration into the younger central settlements, which are comparatively small and only locally known, is very rare indeed. 1991 DFR North South Transkei interior These rural pipeline connections are most prevalent in Inanda, which Northern townships coast Southern townships receives far more direct rural migration than any other zone, with many Central DFR people arriving from northern inner rural districts as well as from the north and south coast. The most striking of these was a Transkeian 1989 DFR South Southern Northern townships coast and pipeline into Bhambayi, which accounted for about 20% of the population. Northern border areas In the southern informal settlements, which paradoxically also receive important migration flows from the northern inner rural districts, only 1985 Pietermaritzburg North 6% of the recorded migration paths were direct. The Umlazi interior infill West interior areas, however, received substantial direct flows from the adjacent DFR townships, as did Umgababa, where many new arrivals seemed to be Northern townships lP7' urban residents fleeing political violence. Little rural to urban migration I of either direct or indirect type was reported in the western zone, where the entry of outsiders is fairly formally controlled.

There is evidence to suggest a degree of self selection in the direct migration RECENT AND ESTABLISHED MIGRANT POPULATIONS process from rural to urban areas. In-migrating households moving to the city by a pipeline connection can obtain substantial information on There are substantial differences between sub-regional sending areas in 0- possible destinations prior to deciding to move. Relatively large numbers regard to whether migrants arrived before or after the lifting of influx of female headed households were found in migration streams to areas control, Cross et al have found. These differences are reflected in Table 3. such as Cato Manor, which were accepting women heads of household. The western zone of Mariannhill is the earliest recent centre of migration Direct migrants, Cross et al note, also tend to be slightly younger than in the DFR, with one in every three households moving into their present indirect migrants, and to have fewer and younger children. In other settlements before 1971. Migration activity into settlements from the areas male headed households tend to predominate. Adult educational northern urban areas accelerated after 1971, reaching 30% between 1986 levels decline slightly with the distance of the area of origin from Durban, and 1989 and 31% in 1990 and 1991. More recently, the southern while the age of the household head rises. Larger households are clearly urban and central Durban populations have become active. Up to 50% linked to the western areas, probably because they are older and more of the present informal population of these zones have moved into their differentiated than those in the Durban shack population. present settlements since 1989.

Urban direct migrants appear mostly to represent population overspill The period of greatest activity in terms of sending migrants into the DFR from the townships. Their moves are made over relatively short for the southern coastal and southern and northern interior rural districts distances, particularly into township infill settlements. The migrants was 1986 to 1989. Before 1985 was the period of greatest migration are younger and better educated than is the norm, and the infill activity for the northern nearer rural population. The north coast, southern areas are accordingly better off socio-economically than the large nearer rural districts, the Transkei and areas outside Natal became active free-standing settlements. after 1990, and have subsequently been sending the most migrants. Households which settled after 1990 show a significantly higher percentage Aside from violence driven refugee processes, on-migration appears to of household heads aged below 30 years. This is most noticeable in the be driven by a desire to improve the household's situation in regard to 20 to 24 years cohort, which shows a change from 15% in 1989 to 62% urban access and transport, security and autonomy. Life in a settlement after 1990. The magnitude of the shift suggests it is probably related to offers the household relatively good urban access and full autonomy at the setting up of younger central settlements and to greater opportunity a low price. Further on-migration might be occasioned by the levels of to obtain land in the DFR, which have allowed young people to move service delivery in other areas, on network connections offering alternatives, out of home earlier than previously. and on outside factors, most importantly, levels of violence.

O Overview of Intra-Urban Migration SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

A significant part of migration appears to be between urban areas. If The first requirement for promoting a viable settlement process appears the immediate source areas of the population are considered, the to be stabilising the high level of on-migration. The second is likely to predominance of migration in short hops, from adjacent areas, is clear. be establishing a viable relationship between informal settlement and It appears that the informal population locates accommodation the urban planning process. Two forms of urban on-migration appear predominantly through a process of urban on-migration which is affected to be common: firstly, through temporary accommodation prior to obtaining by linkages between specific established residential areas - formal or a site and, after that, between informal settlements. informal - and specific informal settlements. Most of these relationships involve population transfers across short distances, but some resemble The first type of continued on-migration is a natural consequence of the pipeline connections and may operate over considerable distances. rural to urban migration process, and cannot be eliminated. But the provision of attractive sites may reduce it. The easing of restrictions on Cross et a1 note that accommodation is sought and found through relatives, settlement may already be reducing the incidence of this form of migration. home people, friends and co-workers, while the African independent Well designed development interventions may also reduce spatial instability churches may also play a central role. These networks then structure if they reduce the length of the in-migration pathway. opportunities for further on-migration. In addition, they constitute a nucleus of what will become civil society in the new informal settlements. The second type of continued on-migration may be the result of violence or attempts to improve the situation of the household. Suppression of violence, the single most substantial cause of continued on-migration, O Urban On-Migration will significantly reduce residential instability. Development interventions are more problematic since they may provoke violence and competition The DFR informal population appears to be extremely unstable, with as well as attract households to move in from more disadvantaged areas. nearly 90% having moved at least once since 1986. In-migrants may work their way inwards towards the urban core, staging in through Making upgrading and service delivery as widely available as possible temporary accommodation. Several moves are common: a small number may reduce differentials in levels of services between areas, and be the of respondents reported up to 10 moves. Individuals who arrive in town most effective means of stabilising this migration stream. Wide scale alone often form households on the way inward. However, some individuals provision may require a reorientation in methods for delivery of se~ces. obtain sites as single person households. Either form of on-migration may prove an obstacle to promoting stable On-migration includes two forms of moves: initially, migrants who do communities in informal settlements. Changing political conditions, and not enter an informal settlement as direct migrants move between forms the increased accessibility of land and services, make it uncertain whether of temporary accommodation, in townships, at work, in hostels or there will be a rise or fall in the medium term in the total volume of otherwise. Several stops may be involved. Once a site is obtained, fewer in-migration moving through the DFRs shack communities. households, perhaps about one third overall, move on again. Mabin A (1991) 'The Dynamics of Urbanisation Since 1960', in Swilling M, Humphries R and Shubane K (eds): Apartheid City in Transition. Oxford University Press, Cape CHAPTER EIGHT Town. Mabin A (1992) 'Dispossession, Exploitation and Struggle: An Historical Overview of South African Urbanization', in Smith DM (ed) The Apartheid City and Beyond. Routledge, London and New York, and Witwatersrand University Press, Johannesburg. Mprller V and Schlemmer L (1985) 'Migrant Workers: A Profile of Their Rural Resources', in Giliomee H and Schlemmer L (eds.) Up Against The Fences: Poverty, Passes and Privilege in South Afnca. David Phillips, Cape Town. CONFLICT AND O'Connor A (1983) The Afncan City. Hutchinson Group, London. Oosthuizen G and Clark C (1994) 'The Development Activities of African Independent MIGRATION IN Churches'. Paper for the Informal Settlements Programme. Rogerson C (1993) 'Managing Urban Growth: The International Experience'. Urban KWAZULU-NATAL Foundation, Johannesburg. Stark 0 and Lucas R (1988) 'Migration, Remitttances, and the Family', in Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol 36 No 3. Todaro MP (1982) Economics for a Developing World, second edition. Longham, Harlow By Simon Bekker and Antoinette Louw

Research into informal settlements of the Durban Functional Region has revealed a very high population exchange. The high incidence of 'moving on', reported by Cross and Clarke in their research for the Rural Urban Studies Unit at the University of Natal, is explained in a complex manner. But one important element is the role that both perceived and experienced violence play in decisions to quit one residential area and seek out another in which to settle.

This research also reveals that most recent migration streams in informal settlements are intra-metropolitan: rural to urban migration comprises a small proportion of the volume and, once having entered the Durban Functional Region (DFR), households tend to 'move on' within the area.

A different research programme, Conflict Trends in Natal, has as its aim to develop a data base of conflict events in the KwaZulu-Natal region from 1986 to the present. The project, which defines conflict as collective violent behaviour, uses multiple sources and has captured some 10 000 conflict events. Analyses based on the data, by Bekker and Louw, have shown not only that regional conflict is sustained, but that its occurrence in urban informal settlements is pronounced.

Since this data base enables analyses which are sensitive to place as well as time of conflict event occurrence, it is possible to describe

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i k CHAPTER 8