President's Council (1991) 'Report of the Three Committees of the President's Council on a National Environmental Management System'. Government Printer, Cape Town. CHAPTER SEVEN Quinlan T (1993a) 'Environmental Impact Assessment in South Africa: Good in Principle, Poor in Practice?' South Afican Journal of Science, Vol 89. Quinlan T (1993b) 'The Educational Agenda of Sustainable Development and the Potential of Video in Environmental Education'. Perspectives in Education, Vol 14 No 1. Ramphele M and McDowell C (1991) Restoring the Land: Environment and Change in Post-Apartheid South Afica. Panos, London. MIGRATION INTO DFR Rogerson C (1992) 'Sustainable Urban Development in South Africa - Issues and Problems'. Regional Development Dialogue, Vol 13, No 4. INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS: Thornton R and Ramphele M (1988) 'the Quest for Community', in Boonzaier E and Sharp J (eds) South Afican Keywords. David Philip, Cape Town. Zimbabwe Trust (1990) 'People, Wildlife and Natural Resources - The CAMPFIRE Approach AN OVERVIEW OF TRENDS to Rural Development in Zimbabwe'. the Zimbabwe Trust, Harare. By Catherine Cross, Simon Bekker and Craig Clark The success of South Africa's transition to democracy depends upon the success with which the demands of the black urban population for amenities to which they have previously had limited access can be realised. This urban need is now largely focused on informal settlements, which have become home to a large and increasing population. To satisfy the aspirations of informally housed people, state and private sector planning and development agencies will require a subtle appreciation of the dynamics which exist on the ground in such areas. Information is lacking regarding the character of the informal population. Surveys indicate that the informal population is heterogeneous, underscoring the importance of understanding the factors which determine needs in areas against the overall context of the urbanisation process. This report draws upon five recent attempts to contribute to this important process of inquiry. These are four studies of migration into informal settlements undertaken by Cross et a1 in the western, northern, central and southern zones of the Durban Functional Region (DFR), and a study which synthesised the data from these four investigations into a general ove~ewof migration. i CHAPTER 6 E CHAPTER 7 The sample includes 18 settlements and 1 057 households in separate migrants move around within urban areas and may even move back to freestanding and infill informal settlements as well as backyard shacks rural areas. Two alternative models for urbanisation have been proposed and infill in formal townships, and rental tenancy in row housing in for the developing world: Clermont township. A township closely associated with its surrounding settlements, Klaanvater in Mariannhill, was also compared. @ Oscillatory migration, in terms of which rural to urban migrants are unable to acquire the security sought after in the urban area, and In the western zone 263 households were surveyed in Tshelimnyama, so continually move back and forth between an urban base and a Mpola, Dassenhoek and St Wendolins; in the northern zone 264 households rural one in Lindelani, Amatikwe, Bhambayi and Nhlungwane; in the central zone @ Circulatory migration, in terms of which the migrant continues to 230 families in Cato Manor, Kennedy Road, Briardene, Block AK, Umlazi live in the urban area, but engages in constant on-migration between backyard shacks and Clermont rental; and in the southern zone 300 different urban locations. families in Bottlebrush, Umgababa, Geza, Mgaga and Umlazi infill. Oscillatory migration is widely reported throughout the developing world, and extensive work on the phenomenon has been done in Kenya. Apart MIGRATION TRENDS: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK from the insecurity of the urban base, an important factor explaining oscillatory migration is status in the rural base. According to Stark: It is often mistakenly assumed that the increase in the urban population ".. for quite a long period of time after moving to the urban sector, of the DFR is a consequence of a decrease in the rural population of migrants retain a strong degree of identification, allegiance and social KwaZulu-Natal. This is not completely true: natural increase in urban connectedness with their village of origin. Their social status and areas contributes substantially to the growth of the urban population, prestige depend on their standing in their home village...". while the rural population continues to grow. Circulatory migration is more complex, reflecting the degree to which But it is also true, as Rogerson notes, that urban populations are growing local conditions govern access to settlement opportunities. Few migrants faster than rural ones, and the proportion of the total population living move directly from a rural home into an urban area and thereafter remain in urban areas is increasing. For this reason, rural to urban migration in place. Instead, many moves take place after the household's arrival remains a major component of urban population growth. in the urban area. These moves count as intra-urban, as Mabin points out, although those involved may be mostly rural born. Several different models of rural to urban migration have been proposed. The classical model is Todaro's, which is based on the premise that The importance of understanding which form applies to urban areas is migration to urban areas is a rational decision arising from a perception self evident: different types of migration result in different expectations that there are more and better paying opportunities for economic activity and needs among new arrivals in an area. The results of the present in urban areas than in rural ones. series of migration studies undertaken by the Rural-Urban Studies Unit at the University of Natal suggest that continued on-migration is one of For Todaro, urbanisation is a one way flow: individuals and household the hallmarks of migration into settlements in the DFR. migrants remain in urban areas. This approach is also evident in models that emphasise the gravity flow principle based on distance and trip The data suggests that the most important migration process in the DFR time in relation to the attraction of the destination, and tend to assume is intra-urban migration. It also appears that the informal population is that the population is in stable equilibrium after arrival. spatially unstable, and that rural to urban migrant households continue to migrate within the urban area after their arrival. The Todaro model and the simple gravity flow concept have been challenged in the developing world by extensive empirical evidence which suggests An important point needs to be made about the character of rural to that urban populations are not in fact spatially stable: rural to urban urban migration in the DFR right from the outset. The rate of arrival in CHAPTER 7 k - CHAPTER 7 the DFR appears to have reached a maximum, and may even be tapering been a considerable spatial displacement of population inside the DFR off. For this reason, the most pressing problem confronting city since that date. This movement represents on-migration. management is not an anticipated wave of influx, but continuing in-migration from rural areas together with the size and needs of the The long delay involved in urban on-migration can be seen when one existing informally housed population. compares the date of arrival of households and individuals in the DFR with the date of arrival in their current settlements. In the western DFR settlements, according to Cross, only one in five households had arrived MIGRATION PROCESSES IN DFR SETTLEMENTS in the settlement since 1986, but this is in an established and relatively stable area which exerts firm control over the influx of outsiders. Migration into DFR informal settlements appears to be a complex process. In Inanda in the north, some 54% of people have entered their settlements The migration process seems to be opportunistic, with migrants taking since 1986. The figures for the southern and central zones were 78% advantage of opportunities as they arise. and 89% respectively. In the central and some southern settlements, most of the population has arrived since 1989. It is clear that the easing Rural individuals and households arrive in metropolitan informal of the state's attitude to land occupation and invasion is largely responsible settlements by complicated routes. Survey results indicate that not all for the younger settlements of the central DFR. settlements are equally acceptable or open as destinations for rural to urban or intra-urban migrants. The age and size of the settlement may channel different prospective entrants into settlements of given types. O Rates of Entry into the DFR The possibility of onward migration by a household in possession of a z Entry into the DFR appears to have taken place on a relatively smooth, 0 site is related to a number of other factors, most significantly the location - of the other site, the availability and levels of service delivery and slightly rising curve up to 1986. It is difficult to tell whether or not a infrastructure, and the perceived likelihood of violence in the new area. significant further rise in rural to urban migration is taking place, and G it is likely that the 1960s and 1970s are underestimated. In-migrants oe from this period will have been thinned by natural attrition and by c!J- O Arrival of Rural Migrants return migration, leaving behind children who now count as urban born. Zi It is widely assumed that the high proportion of informal settlers in the If assessed at the point of first entry to the DFR, there appears to be DFR represents a recent wave of rural to urban migration after the an increase in rural to urban migration since 1986, but a very slight scrapping of influx control in early 1986. However, by far the majority one.