Bayesian Demography 250 Years After Bayes
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Applications and Issues in Assessment
meeting of the Association of British Neurologists in April vessels: a direct comparison between intravenous and intra-arterial DSA. 1992. We thank Professor Charles Warlow for his helpful Cl/t Radiol 1991;44:402-5. 6 Caplan LR, Wolpert SM. Angtography in patients with occlusive cerebro- comments. vascular disease: siews of a stroke neurologist and neuroradiologist. AmcincalsouraalofNcearoradiologv 1991-12:593-601. 7 Kretschmer G, Pratschner T, Prager M, Wenzl E, Polterauer P, Schemper M, E'uropean Carotid Surgery Trialists' Collaboration Group. MRC European ct al. Antiplatelet treatment prolongs survival after carotid bifurcation carotid surgerv trial: interim results for symptomatic patients with severe endarterectomv. Analysts of the clinical series followed by a controlled trial. (70-90()',) or tvith mild stenosis (0-299',Y) carotid stenosis. Lantcet 1991 ;337: AstniSuirg 1990;211 :317-22. 1 235-43. 8 Antiplatelet Trialists' Collaboration. Secondary prevention of vascular disease 2 North American Svmptotnatic Carotid Endarterectomv Trial Collaborators. by prolonged antiplatelet treatment. BM7 1988;296:320-31. Beneficial effect of carotid endarterectomv in svmptomatic patients with 9 Murie JA, Morris PJ. Carotid endarterectomy in Great Britain and Ireland. high grade carotid stenosis. VEngl 7,1Med 1991;325:445-53. Br7Si(rg 1986;76:867-70. 3 Hankev CJ, Warlows CP. Svmptomatic carotid ischaemic events. Safest and 10 Murie J. The place of surgery in the management of carotid artery disease. most cost effective way of selecting patients for angiography before Hospital Update 1991 July:557-61. endarterectomv. Bt4 1990;300:1485-91. 11 Dennis MS, Bamford JM, Sandercock PAG, Warlow CP. Incidence of 4 Humphrev PRD, Sandercock PAG, Slatterv J. -
JSM 2017 in Baltimore the 2017 Joint Statistical Meetings in Baltimore, Maryland, Which Included the CONTENTS IMS Annual Meeting, Took Place from July 29 to August 3
Volume 46 • Issue 6 IMS Bulletin September 2017 JSM 2017 in Baltimore The 2017 Joint Statistical Meetings in Baltimore, Maryland, which included the CONTENTS IMS Annual Meeting, took place from July 29 to August 3. There were over 6,000 1 JSM round-up participants from 52 countries, and more than 600 sessions. Among the IMS program highlights were the three Wald Lectures given by Emmanuel Candès, and the Blackwell 2–3 Members’ News: ASA Fellows; ICM speakers; David Allison; Lecture by Martin Wainwright—Xiao-Li Meng writes about how inspirational these Mike Cohen; David Cox lectures (among others) were, on page 10. There were also five Medallion lectures, from Edoardo Airoldi, Emery Brown, Subhashis Ghoshal, Mark Girolami and Judith 4 COPSS Awards winners and nominations Rousseau. Next year’s IMS lectures 6 JSM photos At the IMS Presidential Address and Awards session (you can read Jon Wellner’s 8 Anirban’s Angle: The State of address in the next issue), the IMS lecturers for 2018 were announced. The Wald the World, in a few lines lecturer will be Luc Devroye, the Le Cam lecturer will be Ruth Williams, the Neyman Peter Bühlmann Yuval Peres 10 Obituary: Joseph Hilbe lecture will be given by , and the Schramm lecture by . The Medallion lecturers are: Jean Bertoin, Anthony Davison, Anna De Masi, Svante Student Puzzle Corner; 11 Janson, Davar Khoshnevisan, Thomas Mikosch, Sonia Petrone, Richard Samworth Loève Prize and Ming Yuan. 12 XL-Files: The IMS Style— Next year’s JSM invited sessions Inspirational, Mathematical If you’re feeling inspired by what you heard at JSM, you can help to create the 2018 and Statistical invited program for the meeting in Vancouver (July 28–August 2, 2018). -
The American Statistician
This article was downloaded by: [T&F Internal Users], [Rob Calver] On: 01 September 2015, At: 02:24 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG The American Statistician Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/utas20 Reviews of Books and Teaching Materials Published online: 27 Aug 2015. Click for updates To cite this article: (2015) Reviews of Books and Teaching Materials, The American Statistician, 69:3, 244-252, DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2015.1068616 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2015.1068616 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. -
September 2010
THE ISBA BULLETIN Vol. 17 No. 3 September 2010 The official bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis AMESSAGE FROM THE membership renewal (there will be special provi- PRESIDENT sions for members who hold multi-year member- ships). Peter Muller¨ The Bayesian Nonparametrics Section (IS- ISBA President, 2010 BA/BNP) is already up and running, and plan- [email protected] ning the 2011 BNP workshop. Please see the News from the World section in this Bulletin First some sad news. In August we lost two and our homepage (select “business” and “mee- big Bayesians. Julian Besag passed away on Au- tings”). gust 6, and Arnold Zellner passed away on Au- gust 11. Arnold was one of the founding ISBA ISBA/SBSS Educational Initiative. Jointly presidents and was instrumental to get Bayesian with ASA/SBSS (American Statistical Associa- started. Obituaries on this issue of the Analysis tion, Section on Bayesian Statistical Science) we Bulletin and on our homepage acknowledge Juli- launched a new joint educational initiative. The an and Arnold’s pathbreaking contributions and initiative formalized a long standing history of their impact on the lives of many people in our collaboration of ISBA and ASA/SBSS in related research community. They will be missed dearly! matters. Continued on page 2. ISBA Elections 2010. Please check out the elec- tion statements of the candidates for the upco- In this issue ming ISBA elections. We have an amazing slate ‰ A MESSAGE FROM THE BA EDITOR of candidates. Thanks to the nominating commit- *Page 2 tee, Mike West (chair), Renato Martins Assuncao,˜ Jennifer Hill, Beatrix Jones, Jaeyong Lee, Yasuhi- ‰ 2010 ISBA ELECTION *Page 3 ro Omori and Gareth Robert! ‰ SAVAGE AWARD AND MITCHELL PRIZE 2010 *Page 8 Sections. -
IMS Bulletin 39(4)
Volume 39 • Issue 4 IMS1935–2010 Bulletin May 2010 Meet the 2010 candidates Contents 1 IMS Elections 2–3 Members’ News: new ISI members; Adrian Raftery; It’s time for the 2010 IMS elections, and Richard Smith; we introduce this year’s nominees who are IMS Collections vol 5 standing for IMS President-Elect and for IMS Council. You can read all the candi- 4 IMS Election candidates dates’ statements, starting on page 4. 9 Amendments to This year there are also amendments Constitution and Bylaws to the Constitution and Bylaws to vote Letter to the Editor 11 on: they are listed The candidate for IMS President-Elect is Medallion Preview: Laurens on page 9. 13 Ruth Williams de Haan Voting is open until June 26, so 14 COPSS Fisher lecture: Bruce https://secure.imstat.org/secure/vote2010/vote2010.asp Lindsay please visit to cast your vote! 15 Rick’s Ramblings: March Madness 16 Terence’s Stuff: And ANOVA thing 17 IMS meetings 27 Other meetings 30 Employment Opportunities 31 International Calendar of Statistical Events The ten Council candidates, clockwise from top left, are: 35 Information for Advertisers Krzysztof Burdzy, Francisco Cribari-Neto, Arnoldo Frigessi, Peter Kim, Steve Lalley, Neal Madras, Gennady Samorodnitsky, Ingrid Van Keilegom, Yazhen Wang and Wing H Wong Abstract submission deadline extended to April 30 IMS Bulletin 2 . IMs Bulletin Volume 39 . Issue 4 Volume 39 • Issue 4 May 2010 IMS members’ news ISSN 1544-1881 International Statistical Institute elects new members Contact information Among the 54 new elected ISI members are several IMS members. We congratulate IMS IMS Bulletin Editor: Xuming He Fellow Jon Wellner, and IMS members: Subhabrata Chakraborti, USA; Liliana Forzani, Assistant Editor: Tati Howell Argentina; Ronald D. -
Causal Diagrams for Interference Elizabeth L
STATISTICAL SCIENCE Volume 29, Number 4 November 2014 Special Issue on Semiparametrics and Causal Inference Causal Etiology of the Research of James M. Robins ..............................................Thomas S. Richardson and Andrea Rotnitzky 459 Doubly Robust Policy Evaluation and Optimization ..........................Miroslav Dudík, Dumitru Erhan, John Langford and Lihong Li 485 Statistics,CausalityandBell’sTheorem.....................................Richard D. Gill 512 Standardization and Control for Confounding in Observational Studies: A Historical Perspective..............................................Niels Keiding and David Clayton 529 CausalDiagramsforInterference............Elizabeth L. Ogburn and Tyler J. VanderWeele 559 External Validity: From do-calculus to Transportability Across Populations .........................................................Judea Pearl and Elias Bareinboim 579 Nonparametric Bounds and Sensitivity Analysis of Treatment Effects .................Amy Richardson, Michael G. Hudgens, Peter B. Gilbert and Jason P. Fine 596 The Bayesian Analysis of Complex, High-Dimensional Models: Can It Be CODA? .......................................Y.Ritov,P.J.Bickel,A.C.GamstandB.J.K.Kleijn 619 Q-andA-learning Methods for Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes .............. Phillip J. Schulte, Anastasios A. Tsiatis, Eric B. Laber and Marie Davidian 640 A Uniformly Consistent Estimator of Causal Effects under the k-Triangle-Faithfulness Assumption...................................................Peter Spirtes -
Statistical Tips for Interpreting Scientific Claims
Research Skills Seminar Series 2019 CAHS Research Education Program Statistical Tips for Interpreting Scientific Claims Mark Jones Statistician, Telethon Kids Institute 18 October 2019 Research Skills Seminar Series | CAHS Research Education Program Department of Child Health Research | Child and Adolescent Health Service ResearchEducationProgram.org © CAHS Research Education Program, Department of Child Health Research, Child and Adolescent Health Service, WA 2019 Copyright to this material produced by the CAHS Research Education Program, Department of Child Health Research, Child and Adolescent Health Service, Western Australia, under the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 (C’wth Australia). Apart from any fair dealing for personal, academic, research or non-commercial use, no part may be reproduced without written permission. The Department of Child Health Research is under no obligation to grant this permission. Please acknowledge the CAHS Research Education Program, Department of Child Health Research, Child and Adolescent Health Service when reproducing or quoting material from this source. Statistical Tips for Interpreting Scientific Claims CONTENTS: 1 PRESENTATION ............................................................................................................................... 1 2 ARTICLE: TWENTY TIPS FOR INTERPRETING SCIENTIFIC CLAIMS, SUTHERLAND, SPIEGELHALTER & BURGMAN, 2013 .................................................................................................................................. 15 3 -
Tea: a High-Level Language and Runtime System for Automating
Tea: A High-level Language and Runtime System for Automating Statistical Analysis Eunice Jun1, Maureen Daum1, Jared Roesch1, Sarah Chasins2, Emery Berger34, Rene Just1, Katharina Reinecke1 1University of Washington, 2University of California, 3University of Seattle, WA Berkeley, CA Massachusetts Amherst, femjun, mdaum, jroesch, [email protected] 4Microsoft Research, rjust, [email protected] Redmond, WA [email protected] ABSTRACT Since the development of modern statistical methods (e.g., Though statistical analyses are centered on research questions Student’s t-test, ANOVA, etc.), statisticians have acknowl- and hypotheses, current statistical analysis tools are not. Users edged the difficulty of identifying which statistical tests people must first translate their hypotheses into specific statistical should use to answer their specific research questions. Almost tests and then perform API calls with functions and parame- a century later, choosing appropriate statistical tests for eval- ters. To do so accurately requires that users have statistical uating a hypothesis remains a challenge. As a consequence, expertise. To lower this barrier to valid, replicable statistical errors in statistical analyses are common [26], especially given analysis, we introduce Tea, a high-level declarative language that data analysis has become a common task for people with and runtime system. In Tea, users express their study de- little to no statistical expertise. sign, any parametric assumptions, and their hypotheses. Tea A wide variety of tools (such as SPSS [55], SAS [54], and compiles these high-level specifications into a constraint satis- JMP [52]), programming languages (e.g., R [53]), and libraries faction problem that determines the set of valid statistical tests (including numpy [40], scipy [23], and statsmodels [45]), en- and then executes them to test the hypothesis. -
December 2000
THE ISBA BULLETIN Vol. 7 No. 4 December 2000 The o±cial bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis A WORD FROM already lays out all the elements mere statisticians might have THE PRESIDENT of the philosophical position anything to say to them that by Philip Dawid that he was to continue to could possibly be worth ISBA President develop and promote (to a listening to. I recently acted as [email protected] largely uncomprehending an expert witness for the audience) for the rest of his life. defence in a murder appeal, Radical Probabilism He is utterly uncompromising which revolved around a Modern Bayesianism is doing in his rejection of the realist variant of the “Prosecutor’s a wonderful job in an enormous conception that Probability is Fallacy” (the confusion of range of applied activities, somehow “out there in the world”, P (innocencejevidence) with supplying modelling, data and in his pragmatist emphasis P ('evidencejinnocence)). $ analysis and inference on Subjective Probability as Contents procedures to nourish parts that something that can be measured other techniques cannot reach. and regulated by suitable ➤ ISBA Elections and Logo But Bayesianism is far more instruments (betting behaviour, ☛ Page 2 than a bag of tricks for helping or proper scoring rules). other specialists out with their What de Finetti constructed ➤ Interview with Lindley tricky problems – it is a totally was, essentially, a whole new ☛ Page 3 original way of thinking about theory of logic – in the broad ➤ New prizes the world we live in. I was sense of principles for thinking ☛ Page 5 forcibly struck by this when I and learning about how the had to deliver some brief world behaves. -
The BUGS Project: Evolution, Critique and Future Directions
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE Statist. Med. 2009; 28:3049–3067 Published online 24 July 2009 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/sim.3680 The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions 1, , 1 2 3 David Lunn ∗ †, David Spiegelhalter ,AndrewThomas and Nicky Best 1Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, U.K. 2School of Mathematics and Statistics, Mathematical Institute, North Haugh, St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9SS, U.K. 3Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, St. Mary’s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, U.K. SUMMARY BUGS is a software package for Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling. The software has been instru- mental in raising awareness of Bayesian modelling among both academic and commercial communities internationally, and has enjoyed considerable success over its 20-year life span. Despite this, the software has a number of shortcomings and a principal aim of this paper is to provide a balanced critical appraisal, in particular highlighting how various ideas have led to unprecedented flexibility while at the same time producing negative side effects. We also present a historical overview of the BUGS project and some future perspectives. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS: BUGS; WinBUGS; OpenBUGS; Bayesian modelling; graphical models 1. INTRODUCTION BUGS 1 is a software package for performing Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling 2, 3 . The BUGS[ ] project began at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge in[ 1989.] Since that time the software has become one of the most popular statistical modelling packages, with, at the time of writing, over 30000 registered users of WinBUGS (the Microsoft Windows incarnation of the software) worldwide, and an active on-line community comprising over 8000 members. -
IMS Council Election Results
Volume 42 • Issue 5 IMS Bulletin August 2013 IMS Council election results The annual IMS Council election results are in! CONTENTS We are pleased to announce that the next IMS 1 Council election results President-Elect is Erwin Bolthausen. This year 12 candidates stood for six places 2 Members’ News: David on Council (including one two-year term to fill Donoho; Kathryn Roeder; Erwin Bolthausen Richard Davis the place vacated by Erwin Bolthausen). The new Maurice Priestley; C R Rao; IMS Council members are: Richard Davis, Rick Durrett, Steffen Donald Richards; Wenbo Li Lauritzen, Susan Murphy, Jane-Ling Wang and Ofer Zeitouni. 4 X-L Files: From t to T Ofer will serve the shorter term, until August 2015, and the others 5 Anirban’s Angle: will serve three-year terms, until August 2016. Thanks to Council Randomization, Bootstrap members Arnoldo Frigessi, Nancy Lopes Garcia, Steve Lalley, Ingrid and Sherlock Holmes Van Keilegom and Wing Wong, whose terms will finish at the IMS Rick Durrett Annual Meeting at JSM Montreal. 6 Obituaries: George Box; William Studden IMS members also voted to accept two amendments to the IMS Constitution and Bylaws. The first of these arose because this year 8 Donors to IMS Funds the IMS Nominating Committee has proposed for President-Elect a 10 Medallion Lecture Preview: current member of Council (Erwin Bolthausen). This brought up an Peter Guttorp; Wald Lecture interesting consideration regarding the IMS Bylaws, which are now Preview: Piet Groeneboom reworded to take this into account. Steffen Lauritzen 14 Viewpoint: Are professional The second amendment concerned Organizational Membership. -
The Royal Statistical Society Getstats Campaign Ten Years to Statistical Literacy? Neville Davies Royal Statistical Society Cent
The Royal Statistical Society getstats Campaign Ten Years to Statistical Literacy? Neville Davies Royal Statistical Society Centre for Statistical Education University of Plymouth, UK www.rsscse.org.uk www.censusatschool.org.uk [email protected] twitter.com/CensusAtSchool RSS Centre for Statistical Education • What do we do? • Who are we? • How do we do it? • Where are we? What we do: promote improvement in statistical education For people of all ages – in primary and secondary schools, colleges, higher education and the workplace Cradle to grave statistical education! Dominic Mark John Neville Martignetti Treagust Marriott Paul Hewson Davies Kate Richards Lauren Adams Royal Statistical Society Centre for Statistical Education – who we are HowWhat do we we do: do it? Promote improvement in statistical education For people of all ages – in primary and secondary schools, colleges, higher education and theFunders workplace for the RSSCSE Cradle to grave statistical education! MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE Where are we? Plymouth Plymouth - on the border between Devon and Cornwall University of Plymouth University of Plymouth Local attractions for visitors to RSSCSE - Plymouth harbour area The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) 10-year