Newsletter December 2012

2013 International Year of Statistics Richard Emsley

As many readers will know, the BIR is its population, economy and education or other topics for the website at any actively participating in the Interna- system; the health of its citizens; and time by emailing the items to Richard tional Year of Statistics 2013, and similar social, economic, government Emsley and Jeff Myers of the Ameri- there are several ways that members and other relevant topics. can Statistical Association at . are encouraged to contribute to this Around the World in Statistics—A short event. Please join in where you can! The Steering Committee are also seek- 150 to 200 word article about how ing a core group of regular bloggers When the public-focused website of statistics is making life better for the to feature on the new website blog the International Year of Statistics is people of your country and are particu- unveiled later this year it will feature Statistician Job of the Week—A short larly keen for lots of exciting content informing mem- 150 to 250 word article, written by young statisti- bers of the public about the role of any members talking about his/her job cians to contrib- statistics in everyday life. So that this as a statistician and how he/she is ute to this. If content remains fresh and is frequently contributing to improving our global anyone would updated, the Steering Committee is society. like to become a seeking content contributions from par- blogger and ticipating organizations throughout the Statistics in Action—A photo with a contribute to this world in several subject areas. brief caption that shows how statistics collective en- improves the quality of life of your Statistic of the Day—A series of four deavor, please country’s people. or five brief, informative statistical contact Richard facts about your country, for example, Anyone can contribute items on these or Jeff as above.

Roundup of Newsletter

Next year 2013 is the Inter- Network meeting pro- other members of the BIR national Year of Statistics gramme is here. The BIR is are proud to kickstart the (IYS). Please contribute to sponsoring the 36th Re- UK’s own Causal Inference Inside this issue: this by adding events to search Students’ Conference. meeting. James Carpenter achieve one event a day The Intergrated population gives his comments. Finally CHANNEL NETWORK 2 worldwide! Email Ron Was- modelling meeting was a membership renewal infor- serstein to do this. Also add great success. Speakers at mation including the form 2 the IYS logo to your web- the 40+ years of Cox model are here. RSC 2012 site! Details of the IYS Vid- meeting guest starring Sir eo Competition can be David Cox have been an- INTEGRATED POPULA- 3 found here. The Channel nounced. Richard Emsley and TION MODELLING

PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS 3 President’s corner MEETING

It seems no time at all since I spect. With the reform of UK CAUSAL INFERENCE 3 took over as BIR President, the governance now in MEETING but very soon my two-year place and the election of period of office will be up members to the executive SECRETARY’S COMMENTS 4 and I shall be passing the committee under way, I Region over to Simon hope that my period of Thompson. Rather unexpect- office will be one where we INTERNATIONAL YEAR OF 4 edly for me, this will coin- can build upon these demo- STATISTICS VIDEO COMPE- cide with my taking up of- cratic changes within the IBS KOBE AWARD WINNERS 4 fice as the incoming vice- to produce a stronger, more President of the IBS, an ex- engaged, and international- ly integrated scientific soci- John with current IBS president, citing and challenging pro- MEMBERSHIIP 5 Clarice Demetrio ety. Newsletter December 2012 President’s corner continued

For both the Society at ings, etc, we attempt to ob- members, possibly making tunity for the Region and all large and the BIR, a key tain some idea of what you use of social media, to en- members, young and older, aspect for officers and com- value in your Biometric Socie- hance the sense of a biomet- to meet up. Then in 2014 mittees is communication with ty membership. However, it rics community. The project is the IBC will be held in Flor- the members. In the Region can be difficult to know what being led by Rhian Daniel ence, somewhat easier to we now have excellent ways else you would be interested (LSHTM) and I wish her well get to than Japan. I hope to of disseminating information in and how you would like to in this endeavour. meet many of you at these to members through email, see the Society developing Conferences are always a events and for you to tell the website, and this news- to serve your needs. Under great way of meeting new me what you think of the BIR letter. But the flow of infor- an IBS Strategic Initiative we people, exchanging ideas, and the IBS – what we are mation in the other direction have started a BIR pilot pro- and forming research col- doing well, what needs is more problematic. Of ject on Communication with laborations. The Channel changing, and what you course, through broad rep- Young Members of the Re- Network Conference in St would like to see us doing in resentation on our Regional gion. The aim is to see how Andrews in July of next year the future. Please don’t be Committee and involving the Region/Society can reach will be an excellent oppor- shy. members in scientific meet- out to its young and student

Channel Network Meeting Sue Welham This conference will be host- by David Spiegelhalter Andrews), Eleni Matechou (University of Pennsylvania) ed at the University of St and invited sessions on (Oxford University), Jérôme Andrews from 3-5th July Statisical Ecology, Mixed Dupuis (Université Paul Saba- Pre-conference workshops Modelling and Advances in 2013. tier, Toulouse) Parameter redundancy: Diana Genomics. Contributed The conference will start at Cole (University of Kent) talks and posters are also Mixed modelling: Simon lunchtime on Wednesday sought (details to follow). Wood (Bath University), Current Methods in Mixed 3rd July and finish at Ingelin Steinsland Modelling: Peter Diggle lunchtime on Friday 5th July, Keynote speaker: Geert (Norwegian University of (University of Lancaster) with pre-conference work- Verbeke (KU Leuven) Science and Technology), shops taking place on the Fisher Memorial Lecture: Adeline Samson (Université Wednesday morning. Uni- David Spiegelhalter Paris Descartes) versity accommodation is available from Tuesday to (Cambridge) Advances in genomics: Saturday. The programme Invited sessions Mark van de Wiel (VU Uni- includes a keynote address versity Amsterdam), Hae by Geert Verbeke, the an- Statistical Ecology: David Won Uh (Leiden University nual Fisher Memorial Lecture Borchers (University of St Medical Center), Hongzhe Li

36th Research Students’ Conference

BIR is proud to sponsor the we are extending the scope opportunity for some dele- 36th Research Students’ of the conference to also gates to present their re- Conference in Statistics. include social statisticians. search before an international audience. There are no entry The conference will take The RSC is a conference that requirements and all dele- place on the 25th-28th is organised for students by gates are encouraged to pre- March 2013 at Lancaster students. We aim to provide sent some of their work either University. The conference is a friendly atmosphere by a talk or a poster, alt- open to PhD students or where you can make inter- hough this is not mandatory. equivalent in any field relat- institution connections and ing to probability, statistics discuss ideas freely. Further- or social statistics. This year more, this will be the first

Page 2 Newsletter Inside Story Headline December 2012

Integrated population modelling Diana Cole

On 24th September ecol- tutorial talk on integrated another talk on Recent de- gave a talk about State-space ogists and statisticians got population modelling velopments in integrated modelling reveals the proximate together for an joint meeting by Takis Besbeas (Athens population model- causes of harbour seal popula- of the Environmental Statis- University of Business and ling, Fitsum Abadie tion declines and Allan Tucker tics Section of the Royal Sta- Economics, University of (Centre D'Ecologie Fonctionn (Brunel University) talked on Dy- tistical Society British and Kent). Then over lunch 8 elle & Evolutive) talked on namic probabilistic models for Irish region of the Biometric posters were presented in- Combining demographic predicting regime shifts in fish Society and the Computa- cluding both the theoretical and population count data populations. The meeting ended tional Ecology Special Inter- and applied aspects of inte- to estimate immigration rate with a discussion led by Byron est Group of the British Eco- grating different data sets. and the strength of density Morgan (University of Kent). logical Society on Integrat- In the afternoon four speak- dependence, Ja- ed Population modelling. ers presented their son Matthiopoulos The meeting started with a work. Takis Besbeas gave (University of St. Andrews)

Celebrating 40+ years of the Cox Model Daniel Farewell

Together with the Centre for 2013 in the John Snow history analysis, and a his- Statistical Methodology at (formerly Goldsmiths) Lec- torical perspective on the the London School of Hy- ture Theatre at the London impact of the paper. The giene and Tropical Medi- School of Hygiene and meeting starts at 11:00am, cine, we're pleased to an- Tropical Medicine, where and speakers include Bianca nounce a scientific meeting the "proportional hazards" De Stavola, Torben Marti- to mark 41 years of Sir Da- paper was read before the nussen, Paul Lambert and vid Cox's celebrated rela- Royal Statistical Society on Robin Henderson (pictured). tive risk model for time-to- 8 March 1972. The meeting Sir David Cox will provide a event data. The meeting will will include presentations of brief reflection at the end of take place on 8 March novel research in event- the meeting.

First UK Causal Inference Meeting Richard Emsley

for students, and is limited to Members of the Region are al inference is broadly de- collaborations. 100 places which will be involved in organising the fined, and the focus is on The first meeting will take allocated on a first-come first UK Causal Inference methodology and challeng- place on Tuesday 14th and first-served basis. More Meeting (UK-CIM) in May ing applications, though sub- Wednesday 15th May 2013 information including the 2013. This is a new initiative missions relating to interest- at The University of Man- online registration and ab- to organise a regular UK ing applications that high- chester. The keynote speak- stract submission form are wide meeting on causal in- light necessary methodologi- er is Stijn Vansteelandt available at the meeting ference as a collaborative cal extensions are also en- (Ghent), and the meeting effort across the methodolo- couraged. It aims to pro- will feature 20 contributed gy research community in vide a forum for people presentations in single ses- the health and social scienc- interested in causal infer- sions. Abstract submission is es, including the Biometric ence to meet informally, for open until 1st February community. early career researchers to highlight their work, and to 2013 to anyone who would The theme of the meeting is offer opportunities for net- like to present their relevant “Causal Inference in Health working to foster future re- work. Registration fees are and Social Sciences”. Caus- search opportunities and £60 for academics and £30 causal graphical model

Page 3 Newsletter December 2012

Secretary’s comments James Carpenter

The AGM will take place at business is the committee year terms on the committee & Tropical Medicine) and 1.15pm on Thursday 29th elections. this November. Dr Michael Sweeting (MRC November, at Fowden Con- Biostatistics Unit, Cam- The Secretary (James Car- Dr Rachel McCrea, having ference Hall, Rothamsted bridge) for election at the penter), Treasurer (Mark completed two years of her Research, Harpenden, Hert- AGM, to serve for three Brewer) and the membership three year term, is on mater- fordshire, AL5 2JQ (during years. secretary (Diana Cole) are the lunchbreak of the 1-day nity leave for the next year. all eligible for re-election In addition, the committee meeting on Generalized Thanks to them for their val- and happy to continue in are pleased to nominate Dr Linear Models). uable contribution to the office. Peter Colman (AstraZeneca) Society. Besides receiving annual to serve for one year. In addition, Dr Sara Genel- reports from the Secretary, The committee are pleased etti and Dr Richard Emsley Membership Secretary and to nominate Dr Rhian Daniel come to the end of their 3 Treasurer, the main item of (London School of Hygiene

2013 IYS Video competition Richard Emsley

Video contest – deadline country’s citizens, improves os, with special prizes for the the finished production. En- extended! society, or in general makes best videos by a person or a tries will be judged on statis- John Wiley and Sons, Inc., the world a better place group of people 18 years of tical content and entertain- is sponsoring the prizes for age or less and the best non- ment value. All submissions 2) how statistical thinking the International Year of English language video. Please must be an original produc- can be brought to bear on Statistics video competition provide a written English trans- tion and creation of the en- important issues of our day- and the deadline for sub- lation of the video script or trants and must not infringe interesting careers in statis- missions has been extend- incorporate English subtitles into on copyrighted materials or tics (tell the world why your ed to until February 28th productions. Submissions job in statistics is so great, 2013. We would like to must be posted on or why it is interesting and encourage members to YouTube. Please visit the submit a video of four fun to be a statistician) competition website for minutes in length or less more details. Can the BIR that illustrates: Cash prizes of $250 to win this competition?? $1,000 (U.S.) will be 1) how statistics positively awarded for the best vide- impacts the lives of your

Kobe Award Winners Richard Emsley

The BIR enjoyed fantastic Congratulations also to Em- ries were awarded to six stu- the comments they made. success at the recent IBC in manuel Ogundimu dents. A condition for the The full reports can be found Kobe, with several mem- (Warwick), Wai Yin Yeung award was that they write a on the BIR website. bers receiving conference (Queen Mary, London) and report about their experiences, awards. Marina Evange- Markus C Elze (Warwick), and all report that the confer- Alice Parry, from Lancaster lou (MRC Biostatistics Unit) who all won second prizes ence was an interesting scien- presented Analysing Malaria won first prize for Best for Best Oral Communica- tific and cultural experience, Trials on a Per Clone Basis: A Oral Communication, tion. All three members had and provided opportunity for New Approach, She felt that whilst Ho Ming (Brian) received Fisher Memorial networking and interacting with "[h]earing about new re- Yuen (Southampton) won Trust-BIR Bursary Awards to experts in the field, none of search in similar, and some- first prize for Best Poster. enable them to attend the which would have been possi- times not so similar areas, Congratulations to both conference, and in total Fish- ble for them without the greatly furthered [her] sta- Marina and Brian! er Memorial Trust-BIR bursa- Awards. Below are some of tistical knowledge and de-

Page 4 Newsletter December 2012 velopment". Nicola Reeve that [experts] were excited Distribution and was was also from Lancaster spoke about [her] work". Philip proud that "this was the first on Spatial Methods for Anal- Law from Warwick spoke talk [he had] given in a truly "AS A RESULT OF THE ysis of Cancer Incidence and about Clustering Cross- international setting”. Finally, BURSARY, I HAVE Mortality in Vicinity of Large Sectional Time Series Gene Markus Elze from Warwick Incinerators in England 1998 Expression Profiles Using presented a talk entitled RAISED AWARENESS -2008. She said: "As a result Parametric Regression. "A Modelling Survival Following OF MY WORK of the bursary, I have raised session of particular interest Bone Marrow Transplantation WITHIN THE FIELD awareness of my work with- to [him] was the Young Stat- Using Longitudinal Immune in the field and received isticians Showcase, where Measurements at Arbitrary AND RECEIVED valuable feedback on my [he] was able to see what Time Points. He says: "As a VALUABLE FEEDBACK work from topical experts." interesting projects other result of [some] discussions, I ON MY WORK FROM Wai Y. Yeung from QMUL students are working on, and exchanged e-mail addresses presented on Imbalance what techniques are being with several people and hope TOPICAL EXPERTS." Properties of Centre- used to approach their to stay in contact and possi- NICOLA REEVE PHD Stratified Permuted Block problems." Emmanuel O. bly collaborate in the future." STUDENT Randomization and Complete Ogundimu, also from War- Randomization for Several wick presented A General Look out for the Bursary Treatments in a Clinical Trial Sample Selection Model with Awards ahead of the next "[She] was delighted to find Underlying Skew-Normal IBC in Florence in 2014!

AGM and “Generalized Linear Models 40 years on” William Browne

Following this year’s AGM were in the original paper computational ideas were All you need is the deviance at Rothamsted a well at- he illustrated extensions us- contained in the papers. was on the subject of objec- tended meeting was held to ing more examples including tive Bayesian model selection After a coffee break celebrate 40 years since the modelling sugar-cane para- in GLMs. He considered how Heather Turner’s talk entitled publication of the paper by sites, schizophrenia patients to perform model selection From L to N: Nonlinear pre- Nelder and Wedderburn and gene expression pro- for GLMs. He discussed his dictors in Generalized Models own work with Daniel that introduced generalized files for fruit flies covered another extension linear models. Sabanes Bove that built on The next speaker was Mike of GLMs to GNMs earlier work by Valen John- The meeting was chaired by Kenward who talked on (generalized non-linear son. He also linked to the the incoming president Si- Hierarchical Likelihood – A models). She described how work of John Copas who had mon Thompson and began Neutral’s perspective. Hierar- introducing nonlinear predic- come up with similar ap- with a presidential address chical likelihood was related tors made it harder to incor- proaches. Leo then consid- from John Hinde entitled to extending the work in the porate identifiability con- ered the problem of predic- glms: a personal perspective original paper to include straints into the modelling tive inference with an exam- John began by placing the random effects and was and showed how this could ple dataset on diabetes in paper by Nelder and Wed- formulated by Nelder with be circumvented using gen- Pima Indians and a second derburn in the context of his co-author YoungJo Lee. eralized inverses and re- example of a Cox regres- work in the field at the time. Mike described his conver- paramerisation post-fitting.. sion. He showed that the me- He went on to describe how sations with John Nelder and She gave examples includ- dian probability model had the paper had influenced his YoungJo Lee over the peri- ing a contingency table of very good properties and own work, mentioning the 2 od that they worked on the mental health status, biplots considered both the standard statistical modelling books, idea. He mentioned both of barley varieties and using model selection case and the the IWSM conferences and Xiao-Le Meng’s and his own stereotype models . All the case of including fractional the Statistical Modelling 2009 critiques of Hierar- modelling was done using polynomials of the predictors. journal that have all fol- chical likelihood and the gnm package in R that lowed on. He discussed ex- stressed that although the she had developed with The meeting ended with some further discussion. Many audi- tensions to GLMs including idea of Hierarchical Likeli- David Firth. random effects and overdis- hood itself had not been ence members shared their The final speaker was Leo persion. Having described greeted with universal ap- experiences of interactions Held whose talk was entitled how important examples proval, many important with John Nelder.

Page 5 Newsletter December 2012

Upcoming PSI events

Some of you may be inter- their upcoming events: 27th February 2013: Meet- Can this Reduce Late Phase ested to know that PSI 6th December: Pharmaceuti- ing on The Design and Failures? (Statisticians in the Pharma- Analysis of Observational cal Statistics Journal Club: 12th/15th May 2013: Annual ceutical Industry) and BIR Studies. Discussion of two papers on Conference, Glasgow have a bilateral agreement Modelling in Drug Develop- 18th April 2013: Meeting to advertise each others For more information visit the ment. on Predictive Inference: meetings. Here are some of website. Membership up for renewal!

Biometric society Member- - JABES, Biometrics and the to set up a standing order your membership. ship for 2013 is now due. Biometric Bulletin: £14 extra please contact Mark Brew- The fees for 2013 remain - Student Member: Free er, If you are a student member unchanged: If you are a full or retired - Cheque: If you pay by your membership renewal is Members, there are several cheque send the form at automatic until the end date - Full Member: £40 ways that you can pay for the end of this newsletter of your course. If the end - Retired Member: £20 your membership for next with your cheque to Mark date of your course has - Biometrics and the Bio- year. Brewer (address is on the changed please inform Diana metric Bulletin: £7 extra - Standing order: If you form). Cole, The membership form is - JABES and the Biometric have set up a standing or- - Paypal: Go to https:// the last page of this newslet- Bulletin: £7 extra der your membership your biometricsociety.org.uk/ ter memberhsip renewal is auto- amember/signup to pay matic each year. If you want And Finally....

Page 6

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