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AWAPARA-DISSERTATION-2018.Pdf Copyright by Omar Awapara 2018 The Dissertation Committee for Omar Awapara Certifies that this is the approved version of the following Dissertation: The Geography of Free Trade: Explaining Variation in Trade Policy in Latin America. Committee: Raúl L. Madrid, Co-Supervisor Rachel Wellhausen, Co-Supervisor Daniel Brinks Henry Dietz Steven Levitsky The Geography of Free Trade: Explaining Variation in Trade Policy in Latin America. by Omar Awapara Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin August 2018 Acknowledgements I have incurred in numerous intellectual and personal debts during the process of writing this dissertation. First and foremost, I am extremely grateful for the generous support of Raúl Madrid and Rachel Wellhausen, my academic supervisors, who went through infinite versions and drafts of this project with endless patience, and always returned each of them with sage advice and insightful comments. Raúl and Rachel pushed me for academic excellence and clarity but, of course, any shortcomings in this thesis are entirely mine. I am also grateful to the other members of my dissertation committee: Dan Brinks, Henry Dietz, and Steven Levitsky. Dan and Henry have been wonderful teachers and a source of unwavering support among the community of Latinoamericanistas in Austin, and Steve played a key role in getting me to Austin in the first place, after working as his Teaching Assistant at Universidad Católica in Lima back in 2010. I started to think about this project back in 2009, in a seminar held in Universidad Católica by two Peruvian PhD candidates in North American universities. Since Alberto Vergara and Eduardo Dargent first encouraged me to think about some of the ideas developed here, they have been generous readers and friends who were always there to offer their advice. Their seminar was a life-changing event for me, both intellectually and personally, and I really hope that I can someday play a similar role for someone else. iv I was fortunate to be part of a stimulating academic community in the Government Department in the University of Texas at Austin. I presented some early ideas and drafts in different seminars and supervised courses led by Kurt Weyland, Wendy Hunter, Rob Moser, Patrick McDonald, Zack Elkins, Dan Brinks, Catherine Boone and Peter Trubowitz. The administrative staff plays a crucial supporting role, and we are all extremely lucky in having someone as Annette Park as our graduate coordinator, and the assistance of Camille, Carolina, Jenna, Katie Beth, and Stuart. During these years, starting on the first day of Math Camp, I was part of a great cohort of colleagues and friends that made grad school and life in Austin so much easier and enjoyable. Special thanks to Jake Dizard who read different versions of this dissertation, up to the very last draft of the conclusions, and to Rodolfo Disi, who shared with me access to OSAL files and helped me code protests, and also to Ken Miller, Joe Tafoya, Kim Guiler, Alex Hudson, Andy Stravers, Calla Hummel, Caitlin Andrews, Kate Putnam, and Luke Perez. Outside of school, I was lucky to meet several new friends who accompanied me in Austin as well: Nisha and Smit, Nish, Nino, Paola, and Olivia, Nico y Nati, Fernando, Mariana, Matías, and Camila, Iván, Elena, Matías, and Lucas, César, Lourdes y Joaquín, Payo, Fran y Simón, Cristóbal, Maida y Emilio, Nico, Maida y Jesu, Pablo, Mercedes, Pablito, Manuel y Lourdes, German and Lucía, Jacinto Cuvi, and Chris Dammert. A McDonald Fellowship allowed me to spend six months in Peru carrying out fieldwork. In Lima, Eduardo Dargent helped me present some of the ideas in a roundtable in Universidad Católica, and Paula Muñoz in a workshop in Universidad del Pacífico, v where I received great comments and feedback from Paula, Martín Tanaka, Cynthia Sanborn, Mauricio Zavaleta, Paolo Sosa, Yamilé Guibert, and Daniel Encinas. I also benefitted from conversations and feedback from my good friends Benjamín Cillóniz and Enrique Arias, and interviews with Martin Scurrah, Raphael Hoetmer, Ricardo Fort, Carlos Mejía, Alejandra Alayza, Fernando Eguren, Luis Vittor, Javier Torres Seoane, Pablo Secada, Richard Webb, Guillermo Rebosio, Fernando Villarán, Roberto Camacho, Nicolás Lynch, Salomón Lerner, and Giannina Denegri. In Arequipa, Chino Rondón and his family helped me with interviews, as well as Giulio and Giuliana Valz-Gen Rivera. Thanks to Octavio Paredes, Carlos Leyton, Mauricio Chirinos, Gerónimo López, Dante Pinto, and Alberto Muñoz Najar for their time. In Cusco, I was able to pick on a list of contacts that Paula Muñoz generously shared with me, and was hosted by Alejandro Letts in his beautiful house in the Valle Sagrado. Thanks to Fernando Ruiz Caro, Jesús Manya, Victoria Quispesivani, Adolfo Saloma, and David Ugarte. In Piura, Michelle Aspee and Miguel Bailetti were wonderful hosts and took me behind the scenes of the agribusiness sector, showing me around fields and packaging facilities. I was able to present a paper based on the dissertation in the ISID workshop at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, in May 2015. Thanks to Philip Oxhorn, Erik Martinez and Manuel Balán. I presented a version of this project at the ISA Conference in Baltimore, in February 2017. Thanks to Patrick James for his feedback. On a personal note, I have the privilege of being part of a large group of friends in Lima that has been together for more than twenty years now. They were often a motivation to keep working hard, hoping that they would be proud of one of their friends. Chiqui, vi Giulio, Rodrigo, JC, Felo, Willy, Percy, Daniel, Ale, among many others, helped me recharge my batteries every time I visited Lima. My parents in law, Elisa and Alberto, and the entire Bailetti clan have been an incredible source of support and love, in each visit to Lima, or in the occasions in which my mother in law came to give as a hand while I was trying to finish up this project. In Lima, my large Franco family is also an integral part of my life, and I am blessed to be part of this family who still has my Abuelita Edda at its core even when she is no longer with us. My parents, Roxana Franco and Fernando Awapara, and my sister, María Fernanda (and my niece Aitana), have been a constant source of encouragement, generosity, and love, throughout this long and winding academic road. I never became an industrial engineer, as my mother had expected, but I hope this makes up for it. They are all an inspiration to me, and words cannot express how much I owe them, and how much I have missed them, throughout these years. To be honest, nothing of this would have happened had I not tried to study the wrong career and hit the jackpot at the same time. I met my beautiful wife Belén just out of high school, on my first of several attempts to find an academic career. It took me many years, odd jobs, and travels to get there, but she was always an unconditional source of love, support, patience, and happiness in my life. Notably, she did this while having a very successful professional career of her own and becoming a wonderful mother to our sons Lucas and Tomas. They were the drive to complete this project. To them I dedicate this dissertation. vii The Geography of Free Trade: Explaining Variation in Trade Policy in Latin America. Omar Awapara The University of Texas at Austin, 2018 Co-Supervisors: Raúl L. Madrid and Rachel Wellhausen Abstract: The backlash against globalization spread across several Latin American countries in the 2000s, yet a few countries such as Peru doubled down on their bets on free trade by signing bilateral agreements with the US and the EU. Why do anti-trade forces in developing countries sometimes fail to effectively exert pressure on their governments? This study uses evidence from three Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru) to suggest that geography can play a significant role in shaping trade preferences and undermining the formation and clout of distributional coalitions that seek protectionism. Because trade liberalization can have uneven distributional impacts along regional lines, trade liberalization losers can find themselves in unfavorable conditions to associate and engage in collective action. Under these circumstances, few coalitions emerge to battle for protection in the policy arena, and when they do, geographic distance from decision- makers in the capital city can be a significant barrier to realizing their interests. As a result, even where a majority of the population living in regions that have not benefitted from trade elect a leftist president, trade reform reversal will not occur unless protectionist interests are close to the capital city. The cases of Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru in the 2000s highlight the powerful influence geography can have on reversing trade policy or preserving the status quo. viii Table of Contents List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures .................................................................................................................. xiii Chapter One: Introduction ..................................................................................................1 Argument in Brief .......................................................................................................3
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