MMM Group Limited TOWN OF INNISFIL TRANSIT FEASIBILITY STUDY FINAL REPORT September 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................1 2.0 CONTEXT FOR TRANSIT IN INNISFIL .....................................................2 2.1 Policy and Planning Context ........................................................................................... 2 2.2 Demographics, Land Use and Growth ........................................................................... 6 2.3 Modes of Travel and Destinations .................................................................................. 8 2.4 Transit and Transportation Services............................................................................ 11 3.0 WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE PUBLIC ................................................18 3.1 The Consultation Approach .......................................................................................... 18 3.2 Telephone and Online Survey ....................................................................................... 19 3.3 Public Open Houses ...................................................................................................... 24 3.4 Stakeholder and Staff Workshops ................................................................................ 27 3.5 Additional Consultation ................................................................................................. 32 4.0 VISION, MISSION AND GOALS FOR TRANSIT IN INNISFIL ................34 4.1 Vision and Mission for Transit ...................................................................................... 34 4.2 Goals for Transit ............................................................................................................. 35 5.0 TRANSIT SERVICE MODELS AND MARKET ASSESSMENT ..............37 5.1 Overview of Transit Service Models ............................................................................ 37 5.2 Peer Review of Fixed Route, Fixed Schedule Transit ................................................ 41 5.3 Peer Review of Specialized Transit Service ................................................................ 45 5.4 Transit Ridership in Innisfil ........................................................................................... 48 6.0 SHORT-TERM TRANSIT SERVICE OPTIONS .......................................51 6.1 Service to Priority Destinations .................................................................................... 51 6.2 Comparison of Options for Priority Destinations ....................................................... 57 6.3 Service to Additional Destinations ............................................................................... 59 6.4 Specialized Transit Service ........................................................................................... 61 7.0 SHORT-TERM TRANSIT SERVICE RECOMMENDATIONS ..................63 Final Report | Town of Innisfil Transit Feasibility Study MMM Group Limited | September 2015 | 1515009 i 7.1 Service Plan .................................................................................................................... 63 7.2 Service Hours and Schedule ......................................................................................... 64 7.3 Service Standards and Bus Stops................................................................................ 66 7.4 Bus Stops and Shelters ................................................................................................. 68 8.0 LONG-TERM TRANSIT NETWORK ........................................................71 9.0 SERVICE DELIVERY ...............................................................................73 9.1 Service Delivery Options ............................................................................................... 73 9.2 Conventional Transit Service Delivery Recommendations ....................................... 77 9.3 Specialized Transit Service Delivery Recommendations .......................................... 81 9.4 Regulatory Requirements and Risk Management ...................................................... 83 10.0 VEHICLES AND TECHNOLOGY .............................................................84 10.1 Vehicles ........................................................................................................................... 84 10.2 Technology ..................................................................................................................... 86 11.0 MUNICIPAL ORGANIZATION AND STAFFING .....................................88 12.0 MARKETING AND COMMUNICATION ...................................................90 12.1 Launch Marketing ........................................................................................................... 90 12.2 Ongoing Marketing and Communication ..................................................................... 92 13.0 FARE STRUCTURE AND RIDERSHIP PROJECTIONS .........................93 13.1 Recommended Fares ..................................................................................................... 93 13.2 Ridership and Fare Revenue Projections .................................................................... 94 14.0 FINANCIAL PLAN ....................................................................................96 14.1 Capital Costs ................................................................................................................... 96 14.2 Operating Costs.............................................................................................................. 96 14.3 Revenues and Funding .................................................................................................. 98 14.4 Five-Year Financial Plan .............................................................................................. 100 15.0 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN .....................................................................105 APPENDIX A – Survey Questions and Results APPENDIX B – Additional Information on Contracting and Procurement Final Report | Town of Innisfil Transit Feasibility Study MMM Group Limited | September 2015 | 1515009 ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction The Town of Innisfil is a growing municipality within Simcoe County that has developed a vision for its future: “The place to be by 2020”. As the population grows, the Town is aiming to dramatically improve quality of life, showcase Innisfil’s diversity and appeal, and make sure businesses can excel. In line with these objectives and with the recommendations of the Innisfil Transportation Master Plan, the Town is evaluating the need for public transit and considering the options for transit in Innisfil. Building on the work completed by the Town of Innisfil as part of the Transportation Master Plan and subsequently, MMM Group conducted a Transit Feasibility Study that reviews the options for transit and develops recommendations for the coming years. The specific objectives of the Study are as follows: ► To identify Innisfil public transit needs; ► To develop a transit network concept, service plan and service standards for transit that address community needs and meet Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA) requirements; ► To recommend a service delivery model, business plan, financial plan and implementation plan for the recommended transit service; and ► To engage the public and stakeholders in a dialogue about transit in Innisfil. Public and Stakeholder Consultation As part of the Transit Feasibility Study, the consultant team worked with Town staff to undertake a wide range of consultation and engagement activities including the following: ► Statistically valid telephone survey of Innisfil residents and online survey; ► Stakeholder workshops with Nantyr Shores Secondary School, Sandycove Acres and the Innisfil Accessibility Committee; ► Two public open houses; and ► Conversations with Innisfil business representatives, Barrie Transit, the County of Simcoe, Tanger Outlet Mall, Georgian Downs and others. The consultation activities indicated a strong need for transit and a high level of support for transit among Town residents. Frequently mentioned themes included the importance of transit for youth, seniors and people with disabilities; the need for transit to access jobs, education, shopping, recreation, health services, and other destinations; and community benefits related to property values, quality of life and ability to attract future growth. At the same time, some residents expressed concerns about transit due to the additional costs for the Town and taxpayers, and the rural geography of the Town. The results of the telephone survey are particularly informative, as they represent a randomly selected cross-section of residents. Environics Research conducted a statistically valid automated telephone Final Report | Town of Innisfil Transit Feasibility Study MMM Group Limited | September 2015 | 1515009 iii survey of 477 Innisfil residents on June 8, 2015. The margin of error for a sample of 477 is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points (at the 95% confidence level). Key findings of the telephone survey are as follows: ► There is widespread support (77%) for the introduction of a public transit service in Innisfil. More than half of survey respondents (56%) indicated that they “strongly support” the introduction of public transit in Innisfil. ► More than six in ten residents believe