V25, N44 Thursday, July 30, 2020

Holcomb should be in ‘24 conversation As GOP begins to conjure its post-Trump era, Hoosiers should ponder the governor By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – In the autumn of 2010, Hoosier Republicans faced an uncom- fortable dilemma. Two of their leaders were in conversations about who the party’s 2012 presidential nominee would be. There was Gov. Mitch Daniels, who was two years hence from a 58% reelection vic- tory on the same night Barack Obama carried Indiana’s 11 Electoral College votes, and eight years away from his two-year stint as Indiana Republican Chairman Eric Holcomb with the GOP delegation President George W. Bush’s budget director. at the RNC in Tampa in 2012. (HPI Photo by Randy Gentry). And there was U.S. Rep. Mike Pence, a darling of the social conservative movement, who had The two were on a collision course to be played once been a disciplined deficit hawk and whose famous out on the national stage, until party kingmakers cleared calling card had been, “I’m a Christian, a conservative and Continued on page 3 a Republican in that order.” Last Democratic governor By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Joe Kernan’s passing on Wednes- day at age 74 was as sad as the Notre Dame Magazine story earlier this month revealing that Indiana’s last Demo- cratic governor was suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, “It’s sort of curious. A man could no longer speak, and was living away from his wife in a long term care facility. works for us, with us, Dr. Fauci Anyone who knew Gov. Kernan found him to be brutally and Dr. Birx also highly thought honest, a pugilisitic former Notre of, but nobody likes me. It can Dame catcher, and a decent euchre player. I found that out late one only be my personality. That’s hot August night on the French Lick all.” Springs Resort’s veranda. I once referred to Kernan - President Trump on Wednesday. as a “Sox fan,” due to the fact that the now South Bend Cubs (which he bought to keep in River City) Page 2 were once known as the South Bend and was ready to go back to the White Sox. Kernan called me up and city he loved, South Bend, where he left me a message: “Brian, you can served three terms as mayor, win- call me a lot of things, but don’t you ning elections with 80% of the vote. ever call me a Sox fan.” It was a city he returned to after he He was also the last rem- spent years in a North Vietnamese Howey Politics Indiana nant of the Democratic dynasty that prison camp after the Navy pilot had WWWHowey Media, LLC began under Evan Bayh in 1988 and been shot down. c/o Business Office continued under Gov. Frank O’Bannon Gov. O’Bannon’s death PO Box 6553 and, finally, Kernan. His last campaign in September 2003 brought Ker- came under tormented conditions. nan back into the race. I was with Kokomo, IN, 46904 HPI noted in the www.howeypolitics.com Nov. 4, 2004, edition: “His was the lost opportunity for Brian A. Howey, Publisher Indiana Democrats. He was Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington the war hero in the time of war. He governed as a Mary Lou Howey, Editor compassionate healer and Susan E. Joiner, Editor the instigator of new ideas that included the historic Subscriptions 2002 tax restructuring, the Energize Indiana plan, and HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 reforms that would have re- HPI Weekly, $350 shaped Indiana government. Lisa Hounchell, Account Manager He broke the mold when he (765) 452-3936 telephone made Kathy Davis the first (765) 452-3973 fax female lieutenant governor [email protected] candidate. What Kernan had in substance, he lost in time Contact HPI and appearance.” [email protected] There were actually two eventual Republican nominee Mitch Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 Kernan gubernatorial campaigns. Daniels at Don & Donna’s Cafe in On the second one, he explained in downtown Franklin when the news Washington: 202.256.5822 2004, “This has been one of those broke. “We came to the conclusion Business Office: 765.452.3936 periods in my life where I really didn’t that in the next year, we will be have a chance to catch my breath able to get a great start to achieve © 2020, Howey Politics going back to last September. So on our goals,” Kernan said on TV over Indiana. All rights reserved. reflection I will look back on this ...,” Daniels’ shoulder. “But there wasn’t Kernan said before stopping to gather enough time to get the job done and Photocopying, Internet forward- his composure and going on. “As the I don’t want to sit on the sidelines.” ing, faxing or reproducing in any oldest of nine from a family where we The governor presented a form, whole or part, is a violation didn’t on many days have two nickels “vision of every child will be healthy of federal law without permission to rub together, as someone who is and have a world class education from the publisher. very fortunate to be standing here at and every Hoosier will have the all today, to look back on nine years opportunity to earn a good living.” serving as mayor, seven as lieutenant He pledged to take care of “senior Jack E. Howey governor; and now a year as governor citizens” and those with disabilities editor emeritus of Indiana ... I’m a very, very lucky and said that “Hoosiers will be safe 1926-2019 guy.” from threats both inside and outside That was in reference to his of Indiana.” stunning December 2002 decision to Daniels told the Franklin opt out of the 2004 race after Gov. crowd that he welcomed Kernan’s en- O’Bannon had selected Peter Manous try. “No one can predict the ultimate as Indiana Democratic chairman. It political effect, but from a citizen’s was a decision Kernan believed he standpoint, this is absolutely for the should have made. He simply decided best,” he said. “It makes the ques- he had had enough of Indianapolis tions before us completely plain. Do Page 3 we have the kind of economic opportunity we want for our Holcomb paid tribute, saying, “Indiana mourns kids and for the least fortunate among us, or should we the loss of Joe Kernan, a bona fide American hero, deco- aim higher? As taxpayers, are we satisfied with the qual- rated Navy officer, and truly selfless statesman who -al ity and performance of state government, or should we ways placed the interests of his fellow Hoosiers first. expect more? After 16 years of one-party rule by career Distinguished isn’t a strong enough word to describe him. politicians do we want to start fresh, or not?” Without regard for personal cost, Joe Kernan devoted every Kernan raised $15 million, but ounce of his life, time and again, to uphold- never got back on track, failed to de- ing the oath he took, and serving the country fine Mitch Daniels, and ran out of TV ad and state he loved. Undeterred after be- money during the final week, becoming ing shot down and tortured in Vietnam, he the first incumbent governor to lose. returned and led his beloved city of South Daniels’ victory over Kernan Bend as mayor for three terms, and our state began what is now a duplicate 16-year as our 47th lieutenant governor. When duty Republican gubernatorial run, almost called him to step into a role he didn’t seek, certainly to be extended to 20 years he served as our 48th governor. – matching the Edgar Whitcomb, Doc “Through his decades of servant leadership Bowen and Bob Orr streak of the 1970s and sacrifice, Joe Kernan modeled all the and 80s – should Gov. Eric Holcomb de- best of what it means to be a Hoosier and feat Woody Myers in November. his legacy will continue to live on in each of Kernan’s defeat didn’t end his us whom he inspired,” Holcomb concluded. public service. Gov. Daniels called him to head the Kernan- In addition to his wife Maggie, Kernan is sur- Shepard Commission on Indiana government reform. vived by seven siblings. Arrangements are being made by Daniels reacted to Kernan’s death, saying, “Joe Welsheimer’s Funeral Home in South Bend. The South Bend Kernan was at different times my ally, opponent, and advi- Tribune reported that Kernan had expressed a preference sor, but always a friend to me, and as far as I could tell to for Welsheimer’s because the funeral home sponsored his everyone he met. In wartime and in peace, he embodied Little League team in 1958 when he was 12 years old. Be- patriotism and the goodwill toward all we associate with cause of the coronavirus pandemic, there will be no public the term ‘Hoosier.’ He was a true leader, and we have lost services. him far too soon. Those among us so ready to bear malice Memorial contributions may be made to the against those with whom they differ and either so ignorant Veterans Fund at the University of Notre Dame, at giving. or so ungrateful that they disdain those whose sacrifices nd.edu; by phone (574) 631-5150; or by mail, at University gave them the freedom to express their views should of Notre Dame, Department of Development, 1100 Grace pause and consider the life and character of Joe Kernan.” Hall, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556. v

of volatile GOP presidential Holcomb, from page 1 politics. They, and Daniels, the way for Pence to run for Indiana believed he could win the governor in 2012, a post that would give 2012 presidential nomination. the congressman four to eight years to Daniels believed that, though bone up on the requisite “executive” he now doesn’t believe he experience. Daniels was to be the Hoo- could have topped President sier to run for president. The man with Obama. In what they had the front row seat to all of this was Eric hoped to be a second Daniels Holcomb. presidential term, after he It was Daniels’ deputy chief of had reined in and reformed staff, his former reelection campaign the nation’s sprawling entitle- manager, who in May 2011 would inform ment dilemma, in 2016 the the press and soon-to-be disheartened void was filled by Donald J. Republicans that “President Daniels” Trump, with Gov. Mike Pence would be consigned to a future at as his dutiful running mate. Purdue University, and not the United The two would transform States. Republican and American For many Daniels/Lugar Republi- politics and, indeed, the cans, this was the precursor to a decade world. But not in a good way. Today the Trump/Pence Page 4 reelection bid is taking on water faster than the Titanic. track today’s GOP and its enabling media ecosystem have Entitlement reform hasn’t been broached in the past five drifted,” Friedman explained. “In that sense it was yet years. Instead, a wicked pandemic has spawned 150,000 another stark reminder that we can’t be at our best as a American deaths, with 25% of the worldwide COVID country – as we need to be most in a pandemic – without deaths (with just 4% of the population) coming in a nation a principled conservative party, grounded in science, not that in 2019 was considered the Lamborghini of medical just cultural markers and mindless, kneejerk libertarian- research and systems. ism. We have a way to go. Forbes reported last week that Trump and Pence are trailing by double digits in ‘of the 19 states that have yet to issue a mask mandate, most national polls, and over the past week are behind 18 are run by Republican governors.’ But let’s give a small in just about every battleground state, save Ohio. They shout-out to Republican governors Larry Hogan of Mary- trail or are even with Joe Biden in “red states” like Texas, land, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Eric Holcomb of Indiana and Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who have been or become pro-mask. After a week in which President Trump appeared It is not only good for their states’ physical health but also to turn the corner on the simple but most effective way of the country’s political health.” tamping down the pandemic (wearing a face mask), he re- The Holcomb governorship has been widely verted to previous form. He retweeted a video of Dr. Stella seen as a success. He is on a course for a landslide win Immanuel, who states, “You don’t need masks, there is a in November, probably eclipsing Daniels’ 58% victory in cure.” She advocated the debunked notion of the cure (hy- 2008. That it comes during a probable Democratic wave is droxychloroquine). “I think they’re very notable. He has become Indiana’s respected doctors,” Trump said, adding most powerful modern governor, they believed in the drug. “There was consolidating his cabinet to include a woman who was spectacular in her an appointed superintendent of statements about it.” Pence met Im- public instruction for the first time manuel’s group in Texas on Wednesday. in history. He presided over the In an Axios interview that same pandemic-induced economic hit day, Trump acknowledged that in eight with a $2.3 billion budget surplus, conversations with Russian President of which $900 million has been Putin, he never once broached the absorbed. He has a fully-funded subject of a late February item in the road program for the next decade. President’s Daily Briefing, that the He has weathered the Kremlin had instigated bounties for Tali- pandemic in good shape, success- ban killers of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. fully inducing Hoosiers to shut “I have never discussed it with him,” down the economy for nearly Trump said, adding that the report three months in March, gradu- “never reached my desk.” Which was ally reopening it in June and July, another of his 20,000-plus lies. though he stopped the state in the final Stage 5 earlier this In the midst of President Trump’s self-produced month after a second spike of the first pandemic wave, American carnage, with his and Vice President Pence’s and extended it to Aug. 27 on Wednesday. He became the blood in the water stirring the sharks, there is already third Republican governor to issue a mask mandate after speculation as to what happens to the post-Trump Republi- weeks of messaging Hoosiers that it was the most effec- can Party. Who should the party turn to in 2024? tive and inexpensive way to mitigate COVID-19. Many expect that a Hoosier will be at the center of While Holcomb has taken some heat for reopen- the speculation. But like the early winter days of 2010, the ing the state’s economy too quickly, he and his team have Grand Old Party might want to shift its focus from the vice successfully kept intensive care unit bed availability in the president, to another Indiana governor. mid-40th percentile, and ventilator capacity in the mid- Eric J. Holcomb. 80th percentile. Last Friday at Marian University, Gov. Holcomb and A tale of 2 pandemics Vice President Pence appeared together and seemed to be Unlike Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan or Ohio Gov. in sync. Pence was in the midst of a weeks-long mission Mike DeWine, Holcomb has not become a Sunday morning to have public schools fully reopen. Holcomb has taken pandemic media star. a more nuanced approach, allowing local educators and In fact, Wednesday’s Thomas Friedman column in school boards to forge an array of hybrid plans. the New York Times became the first notable national ex- posure for Holcomb. “Our future archaeologists would also Contrast with Gov. Pence be right to focus on face masks, because the early intense Holcomb’s gubernatorial legacy offers a sharp con- resistance by pro-Trump Republican leaders and faithful trast to Gov. Pence, who grabbed Donald Trump’s political to wearing them was the distilled essence of how far off lifeline in July 2016. Pence’s reelection bid was in trouble Page 5 when he availed himself to the Trump ticket. better than Pence ever did. They work together now on a Perhaps the most ambitious Hoosier in a genera- way to implement a major infrastructure program. Things tion, his decision to run for governor in 2012 was all about never envisioned at the start of 2016 came Holcomb’s way: resume-building to prepare for national office. He would Named lieutenant governor to fill a surprise vacancy. Se- run, serve a term or two if it had to be that way, then run lected as governor nominee after Pence was picked for vice nationally in 2016 or 2020, just as he had pondered a president. Elected governor over a Democratic front-runner 2012 presidential campaign until the Mitch Daniels specter with help of the Trump tsunami. What now? Holcomb is persuaded him otherwise. He was the first modern gover- qualified for governor. And he isn’t seeking as governor to nor to be elected with less than 50% of the vote. establish qualifications for president.” As governor, you could see Pence systemically checking off the boxes needed for a national resume. Governors and presidents He pushed for the income tax cut in 2013, but was con- In this final edition of HPI’s 25th year, a conclusion strained by Republican legislative leaders who didn’t want reached is that men who enter the Indiana governorship to be forced to raise taxes during the next recession. He intent on using it as a stepping stone to the White House pulled out of Common Core. He signed social legislation tend to rule through that prism, limiting their effectiveness. designed to curry favor with the evan- gelicals and pro-life activists. He went a bridge too far with the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, where his communica- tion skills suffered a temporary lapse. His administration appeared to lack direction. Statehouse lobbyists and lawmakers had little fear of crossing him. There were embarrassing staff lapses from the JustIN propaganda proposal to blind-siding legislative leaders with a third $42 million Regional Cities option. Regional Cities was sold as an enduring Pence legacy that has since been mothballed. By 2015 Gov. Pence’s approval rating as governor fell from 60% into the 40th percentile. In the Dec. 15, 2016, edition of Howey Politics Indiana, I wrote: “Many Hoosiers I know are amazed at the trans- formation of a mediocre governor who has been thrust into a worldwide power Pence and Evan Bayh fit that profile, though Bayh was center. But history is full of these episodes, of Napoleon a more effective governor than Pence. Both fall short of escaping a disastrous invasion of Egypt, only to arrive in Govs. Doc Bowen and Robert Orr, who had more enduring Paris with a few too many heads rolling away from the legacies. guillotine and a gaping power vacuum. This is what we Gov. Daniels didn’t use the Indiana governorship to now know about Vice President-elect Pence. This is a man achieve a national goal as nakedly as Bayh and Pence, who who played his political cards adroitly. Pence raced toward were extremely cautious about using their political capital a power vacuum when others fled in the opposite direc- on controversial projects. Daniels ruled with the notion tion. While dozens of heavyweight Republicans told the that any unexpended political capital was wasted, and he Trump veep searchers to bug off, Pence not only came to used it to achieve his Major Moves road program, a shift the table, he flew out to Teterboro to retrieve the prize as to Daylight Savings Time, the constitutional referendum it flickered. It was an absolute roll of the dice. Had Trump on property tax caps and school funding projects; and his flicked Pence away with a ‘get him outta here’ and gone 2011 education reforms. with Christie or a Newt, the governor’s political career Holcomb served as a chief lieutenant of Daniels would have been in shambles.” and writes extensively about it in his 2012 book, “Leading South Bend Tribune columnist Jack Colwell ob- the Revolution: Lessons from the Mitch Daniels Era.” served in that same edition of HPI, “Holcomb, conservative Holcomb writes: “From a national recession and but not so much an ideologue, is more in the mold of for- tight budgets that result from the tough times, to major mer Gov. Mitch Daniels, for whom he served as a key staff floods and tornadoes, the public considers how officials member and campaign manager. Holcomb will get along handle crises in deciding who will earn their votes. As with Republican leaders in the General Assembly much much as the disasters themselves, the official responses to Page 6

Exxon Valdez and Katrina were three actions: 1. Set. 2. Spike. 3. Follow forever etched into the American through. memory. As I have said before, n Focus relentlessly on we learn from mistakes what results; measure everything. Protectors works and what does not work. of the status quo do not take a day off; Unfortunate as they were, these neither can champions for reform. Mitch crises taught anyone who was always said, “If you are not keeping score, paying attention that the na- you’re just practicing. What gets measured tion cannot afford to fumble and gets done.” This has become a hallmark make mistakes of this magnitude of the Holcomb administration’s pandemic again.” response. Under Trump and Pence, n Do not take the bait; stay who heads the White House coro- disciplined and positive. navirus task force, the prevailing n Let yourself go and take cal- view is that the national response culated risks. Mitch stayed in homes rather has been bungled and kicked than hotels so he would have down time to the 50 states. Trump’s own with individuals and, incidentally, where he words, heard over a mortality might get some real nitty gritty experiences graphic in a Lincoln Project TV ad, far away from special interest groups. lays out in searing detail how this n Plan your path to victory. administration has mishandled In Mitch’s case, having a road map for this crisis. Indiana’s comeback meant he earned a In another passage, reputation as an idea generator. Keep your Holcomb observes, “Great lead- message easy to understand; play through ers are voracious learners who never stop questing for more your team’s strengths and weaknesses, your opponents information and are not moored to the past. They are led by will; envision and articulate what your destiny is. facts, not rumors of blind faith in someone else’s reputation. Therefore, it is paramount to trust your team and to know Holcomb’s future that their research on any topic is solid, prior to spouting Gov. Holcomb will only be 56 years old when he off about what you think. Remember, you will rarely, if ever, is likely to leave office in early 2025, should he defeat have 100% of all the information you need to make the Democrat Woody Myers in November. Unless U.S. Sen. toughest calls. If you are not learning from those surround- Todd Young decides to run for governor in 2024 (he’s ing you, it is time to retool the team. Everyone around you up for reelection in 2022) or Sen. Mike Braun retires in should know you are constantly taking the pulse, assessing 20224, there is no elective future for the governor in the the news of the day, and have multiple reference points.” state. Holcomb’s book focused on how Daniels operated as That’s why we speculate on a 2024 presidential governor provides not only a working outline of Holcomb’s run. gubernatorial administration, but a sharp contrast with how Two-term Indiana governors often face a split Vice President Pence operates. screen. Gov. Orr experienced the Oil Shock recession in Among the key observations: his first term, survived a narrow reelection, then used n Create your own conventional wisdom; do not his political capital for his A-Plus education reforms. let it define you. Govs. Frank O’Bannon and Daniels presided over sharp n Ideas, facts and substance matter; do not be economic downturns in their second terms. afraid to communicate them creatively. Holcomb’s first term was one of historic contrast, n Do not rely on polling to dictate your direction. going from a 3.2% jobless rate in February to 16.9% in It is good to learn from it, but build your own compass. April and 11.2% in May. With the pandemic’s persistence n Through unwavering dedication to your core be- likely to continue into the first year or two of a potential liefs you will be afforded tomorrow’s political capital to spend second term, it’s impossible to know what is in store for on future projects. The political account balance of your ac- him. cumulated political capital will provide you strength and thus But he has ruled while closely adhering to the frame you as a strong or weak leader. Daniels playbook he outlined in 2012. It has the po- n Do not be politically afraid to take on hot-button tential to set him up for something bigger in 2024. We issues in pursuit of making government work. know from Don Cogman’s book that the Daniels presi- n If at first you do not succeed, do not quit. Be dential flirtation had been set in motion for a couple of willing to fail (temporarily). years, despite his frequent denials to the press. n Sell, sell, sell ... then sell again. Selling public Holcomb went from a third place U.S. Senate policy is like playing volleyball and requires at minimum candidate in 2016, to an unexpected lieutenant governor Page 7 selection and nomination, and then his implausible Repub- dential run in 2024 makes sense, if he wants it. lican Central Committee win for the nomination and his Historically strong and reform-minded Indiana epic and successful 100-day campaign that brought him to governors, from Democrat Paul McNutt to Republican Dan- the governorship. iels, have been poised to play in the presidential arena. It With four years of Republican General Assembly might be time for Hoosier Republicans to begin to wrap super majorities, and his on-going reelection bid amidst of their minds around such a scenario with this particular a pandemic, that he follow up with an improbable presi- governor. v

rejecting the top of the ticket. Those issues are dominat- ing.” Dems targeting Indy, Drew Anderson of the Indiana Democratic Party noted this past session when Republican senators up for LaPorte Senate districts reelection “supported systemic racism.” By BRIAN A. HOWEY “During what was a shortened, non-budget ses- INDIANAPOLIS – It took the Democratic Water- sion, State Senators Mike Young, Jack Sandlin, Michael gate wave election of 1974 for the party to stake a major- Crider, and Aaron Freeman – all white senators – aimed ity in the Indiana Senate for a mere two years. their sights on measures the Indianapolis City-County The miniscule caucus has just 10 members, so Council had passed to help bring better opportunities for even if the most vicious Democratic wave were to take Black and Brown Hoosier families across Marion County,” shape, there is virtually no chance for the party to take a Anderson said. “These instances of bullying include Aaron majority. Howey Politics Indiana Freeman’s crusade to defund a planned mass transit counts just five potentially com- system, Mike Young and Jack Sandlin’s war on marijuana, petitive races for 2020, with four and Freeman and Crider’s votes restricting renters’ rights of them in Democratic-trending in major Indiana cities.” Marion County. The other is He also claims that voters in Indianapolis want to SD8 which had been held by place a check on the GOP dominated Statehouse. “When Democrats Jim Arnold and Anita you look at the overall environment, people want to put Bowser for a generation until Sen. Mike Bohacek won it a check on the overall system. They want to hold a check during the Donald Trump wave of 2016. on the federal government and state government for not As with the House, if President Trump craters at funding education. We think some of our races are very the top of the ticket, the problem for Democrats is that winnable.” gubernatorial nominee Woody Myers has been an anemic Here is HPI’s rundown of potentially competitive fundraiser, give Gov. Eric Holcomb’s reelection chances an districts. All other districts are considered safe for their enhanced status, raising a potential bulwark against down- current parties. ballot carnage. Republican sources tell HPI that while Trump won’t SD8: Sen. Mike Bohacek (R) v. Gary Davis (D). carry Indiana by the 19% he did in 2016, he’ll likely come 2016 Results: Bohaceck (R) 31,232, Maxine Spencer in with an 8-to-10% plurality. Gov. Holcomb is running (D) 22,369. 2020 Analysis: Bohacek won SD8 in 2016 very strongly in some of the Indianapolis suburban dis- following the retirement of Democratic State Sen. Jim tricts where Trump is poised to be a liability. “Senate Re- Arnold, who along with State Sen. Anita Bowser kept this publicans have developed their own brand,” one campaign seat in the Democratic column for decades. Bohacek, a source told HPI. “That helps innoculate us.” former Democrat, was aided Zach Brown, who heads the Senate Democratic by the Donald Trump/Mike Campaign Committee, says the three Marion County seats Pence wave election, with in the mix this year give the party an opportunity to make 38.2% in his district back- inroads. “We have to take what we can get,” Brown told ing Hillary Clinton. Democrat HPI on Tuesday. “With the top of the Republican ticket so gubernatorial nominee John weak, looking at Marion County, this is where we would Gregg won the district with have preferred to play. I think Trump’s weakness will move 49.3% that same year, while to down ballot races. Sen. Joe Donnelly carried it Brown said that Trump mishandling the corona- with 49.8% in 2018. Demo- virus pandemic along with education issues ranging from crats believe a national wave safely reopening schools to teacher pay issues will play has the potential of returning into the party’s wheelhouse. “People in suburban areas of the district to the D column the state including the donut counties and Indianapolis are with Davis, a longtime at- Page 8 torney and disabilities advocate ful client outcomes. He brings an extensive background in from LaPorte who was slated in data analytics, consulting, and systems enhancement. June. Davis told the NWI Times Fady joined KSM after a decade in public service, first for his campaign will focus on advo- the Indiana General Assembly, then the Indiana Depart- cating for people whose voices ment of Workforce Development and Indiana Family and often go unheard in politics and Social Services Administration, before being appointed the government, just as he works at controller and CFO for the City of Indianapolis by Mayor his law practice on behalf of those Joe Hogsett in 2016. During his tenure with the city, he injured on the job and people was credited with playing a significant role in executing with physical or mental disabili- many of the Hogsett administration’s major projects and ties. “We’re in a precious moment technology initiatives. He vows to protect “reproduc- in our state’s history, and we need tive freedom and choice” for women, seeks “responsible someone representing District 8 investments in pre-K, K-12 schools, and the state’s voca- who has a record of fighting for tional, college and universities.” He said that the “Indiana the voiceless and who understands these tough issues. I’ll General Assembly must protect Hoosiers’ rights to qual- be that kind of senator for Hoosier families,” Davis said. If ity and affordable health care” with more than 600,000 elected Nov. 3, Davis plans to prioritize “education first” at Hoosiers enrolled in HIP2.0 and CHIP programs. He adds the Statehouse, including protecting schoolchildren amid that on social investments, “In order for Indiana to attract the coronavirus pandemic, supporting teacher pay raises jobs and businesses, we must integrate Hoosiers into the and retooling Indiana’s school funding formula. global economy and give them the incentive to live, work, Bohacek, Michiana Shores, served two terms as and raise families in Indiana. Issues like poverty, unem- LaPorte County commissioner. He is a consultant for Echo ployment, and hunger hold Indiana back from reaching its Global Logistics and owns MSL Services Inc. in Michiana full potential as an economic engine.” Shores. He authored the hate crime legislation in 2018 Ruckelshaus was elected to the Senate in 2016 with State Sen. Ron Alting, saying, “In light of the recent after serving in the Indiana House for a term in 1990. He anti-Semitic vandalism at a Carmel synagogue, it’s im- is assistant majority caucus chair. He authored legislation perative for Hoosiers to know these hateful crimes will that expanded the rights of sexual assault victims, say- not be tolerated. No one should live in fear of expressing ing, “Survivors of these events have to relive the most themselves or practicing what they believe. I am pleased traumatic experience of their life when they go through that the governor has called on the legislature to pass these interviews and exams. I think the least we can do is this kind of bill. There needs to be a law in place to help provide them with the support of a mental-health profes- prevent hate crimes in our state and protect the safety of all Hoosiers, and I will work hard to make that a real- ity.” He authored Senate Enrolled Act 29 in 2019, whcih requires a school corporation, upon the request of a par- ent or juvenile detention facility, to provide a child who is detained for more than seven days with the school materials corresponding to their respective grade level or the courses the child is or would be enrolled in if they were not detained.” With the potential for a national Democratic wave and the district’s Democratic history, this seat could flip this November.Horse Race Status: Tossup. sional, and I hope to see this bill receive the same sup- SD30: Sen. John Ruckelshaus (R) v. Fady Qaddou- port in the House.” After the 2020 session, Ruckelshaus ra (D). 2016 Results: Ruckelshaus (R) 36,833, Pamela said, “Indiana’s strong financial position helps us fully fund Hickman (D) 33,188, Zachary Roberts (L) 2,564. 2020 public education through this budget cycle.” He backs Gov. Analysis: This could be the Democrats’ best chance for a Holcomb’s efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Senate pickup, though Sen. Ruckelshaus has conducted an In a recent IndyStar op-ed, Ruckelshaus said that Indiana intense door-to-door campaign. National and state Demo- “Republicans must lead on clean energy jobs.” Senate crats have been strong in this north side Indianapolis Democrats will attempt to tie Ruckelshaus to U.S. Educa- district, with Hillary Clinton winning it with 55% and John tion Sec. Betsy DeVos and her American Federation for Gregg 56.5% in 2016, and Sen. Donnelly carrying it with Children PAC, saying he received $52,000 in 2016 from 62% in 2018. Ruckelshaus passed on a 5th CD race to the affiliated Hoosiers For Quality Education. Qaddoura defend SD30. Fady Qaddoura is chief innovation officer for had a $126,931 to $95,873 cash on hand lead on mid-May Katz, Sapper & Miller, leading the firm’s efforts to expand pre-primary finance reports filed with the Indiana secre- services and use technology and data to create meaning- tary of state. Horse Race Status: Tossup. Page 9

SD32: Sen. Aaron Freeman (R) v. Belinda Drake ably GOP district. Hillary Clinton got only 36.2% against (D). 2016 Results: Freeman (R) 31,173, Sara Wiley Donald Trump in 2016, John Gregg had just 44.9% and (D) 20,184, Shane Zoellner (L) 2,170. 2020 Analysis: Sen. Donnelly had just 44% in 2018. Cowden is an Army Senate Democrats believe this district is trending Demo- Ranger veteran who served three tours in Iraq and Af- crat, though Hillary Clinton polled 36.5% and John Gregg ghanistan. He worked on Donnelly’s reelection campaign 43.7% in 2016 and Sen. Joe Donnelly had 44.4% in and is the veteran’s service officer for Wayne Township 2018, making it Trustee’s Office. “I believe government works when the one of the more right people are there to advocate for everyday individu- conservative als with common-sense policies, and when people are districts in Marion there to serve their community, not their own ambitions,” County. Drake Cowden explained. “As your next state senator, I pledge advocated fully to listen, serve, and unite to fight for our community.” legalizing recre- Cowden backs legalizing medical cannabis and restoring ational marijuana; faith in government, saying “I will fight the corruption at expanding back- our statehouse with the same intensity I fought America’s ground checks, enemies on the battlefield. As your state senator, I will closing gun show propose reforms to our campaign finance system, and I loopholes and will stop politicians from choosing their voters by ending strengthening red the partisan gerrymandering undermining our elections.” flag laws; and backs same day voter registration, more Cowden advocates “We should pay our teachers on par voting centers and extended poll hours. She also wants an with other public servants.” expanded hate crimes law, and would back living wage, Young was elected to the Indiana House in 1986 and more access to pre-K. “We can’t have social justice and joined the Senate in 2000. He managed Rex Early’s in a future without a planet that’s livable,” Drake said. 1996 gubernatorial campaign and once led the House “Environmental and climate justice are the foundation of Republican Campaign Committee. He chairs the Senate this platform, just as they are the foundation of all life on Judiciary Committee. Young told HPI that a Democratic earth.” attack on a Facebook posting involving his daughter who Sen. Freeman said he will continue to “support as a teacher out of state had contracted COVID-19 was policies that create a business-friendly tax environment to unfair. Democrats said the posting identified the student, encourage them to create and invest in local jobs.” He says but HPI reviewed the posting and did not come to the he will only vote for “honestly balanced budgets” and “has conclusion that the student was identified.Horse Race repeatedly voted against costly tax increases.” He notes Status: Likely Young. that as an Indianapolis councilman, he “proudly supported the state’s first pre-K program.” As a former Marion County SD36: Sen. Jack Sandlin (R) v. Ashley Eason (D). prosecutor, he has been committed to “ensuring that our 2016 Results: Sandlin (R) 26,696, Sean Gorman (D) most violent criminals remain behind bars” while work- 18,375. 2020 Analysis: This is another seat that could ing “to increase public safety funding in order to combat potentially be in play should a national Democratic wave violent crime and drug abuse.” Senate Democrats have impact down attempted to connect Freeman to a 2016 Republican Con- ballot races. vention video clip of “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” in While Hillary which Freeman said of the Black Lives Matter movement, Clinton carried “You know, this Black Lives Matter movement, I just don’t just 39.9% think it’s helpful to the country. I don’t know what their of the vote in purpose is. … I was a prosecutor who brought cases be- 2016, John fore a grand jury for police action shootings. Your chances Gregg carried of being shot by police are nonexistent if you respect 46.8% that authority, if you don’t pull a gun on ‘em, if you don’t run same year, and from ‘em, if you cooperate with law enforcement. Put your Sen. Donnelly hand on the steering wheel and play along with what they won the district ask you to do.” This district fits the description of one that with 48.8% in could come into play if a big Democratic national wave 2018. Eason develops and swamps down ballot Republicans.” Horse easily won the Democratic primary in June. The native Race Status: Likely Freeman. Texan is a non-profit executive. She states, “Indiana is on a path of amazing growth, but that growth has to serve SD35: Sen. Mike Young (R) v. Pete Cowden everyone. When I talk to our neighbors, it’s obvious that (D). 2016 Results: Young (R) 26,617, Phil Webster Indiana’s growth and success haven’t reached everyone on (D) 18,641. 2020 Analysis: This district is still a reli- the south side of Indianapolis. I’m committed to address- Page 10 ing the root causes of the complex issues we face, and I Rokita is more worried about pleasing his right-wing base bring my skills in building collaborative solutions: Reaching than doing what’s best for Hoosiers.” across the aisle, partnering with local government, and en- gaging our business and philanthropic communities.” She General Assembly cites Marion County’s high infant mortality rate that is 57% more than the national average while maternal deaths are HD88 caucus set 11% higher than the rate of California. She backs “equal- Indiana Republican Party Chairman Kyle Hupfer ity for all,” saying, “All Hoosiers should be able to earn a has officially called a caucus of eligible precinct commit- living, take care of their families, and be full participants in tee members to fill the upcoming vacancy in the office our community without fear of harassment or discrimina- of House District 88. The seat is currently held by former tion. We need legislation that protects all Hoosiers from Speaker of House Brian Bosma, whose resignation from discrimination.” And she backs a “robust public transporta- the Indiana House will be effective July 31 (Howey Politics tion to incentivize new employers to open offices here in Indiana). The caucus will be held at 6 p.m. ET, on Wednes- Indiana.” day, Aug. 19, at the McCordsville Town Hall, which is Sandlin is a former IMPD deputy police chief, located at 6280 W. 800 N. Proper social distancing will be served on the Indianapolis City-County Council and was in effect, and facial coverings will be required. The indi- a two-term Perry Township trustee. He was first elected vidual selected at the Aug. 19 caucus will fill the remainder in 2016. Sandlin seeks quality education “from innova- of former Speaker Bosma’s term. “Former Speaker Bosma tive Pre-K programs and effective, results-oriented K-12 has served Hoosiers for more than 30 years, helping grow schools to affordable college experiences and skills-based Indiana into the fiscal envy of the nation,” said Hupfer. vocational programs, our future depends on making a “Hoosiers will miss his leadership, and there’s no doubt strong commitment to education.” He backs removing that the new representative for this district has big shoes education regulations. He will support policies that will to fill.” Individuals interested in running in the caucus reduce our taxes, provide fair economic opportunities for should contact the Indiana Republican Party secretary at the middle class and promote a healthy pro-jobs environ- [email protected] to ensure they file the proper forms ment that provides Hoosiers with high-wage jobs. On prior to the deadline, which is 72 hours prior to the vote. public safety, his campaign says, “Jack has seen the brutal The caucus will be open to credentialed media who pre- face of violent crime and drug abuse and has the experi- register to Holly Lawson at [email protected] prior to ence needed to tackle these issues. Jack is committed to 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 18. providing law enforcement the resources they need to get criminals off the streets, combatting the drug epidemic, Presidential 2020 and ensuring effective treatment options for drug addicts.” Horse Race Status: Likely Sandlin. Biden closing in on veep choice Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is get- Statewides ting close to announcing his running mate (The Hill). The decision is expected to be the first week in August, several Weinzapfel assails Rokita on masks weeks before the Democratic National Convention starting Democratic nominee for Indiana Attorney General, on Aug. 17. The vetting process is completed and inter- Jonathan Weinzapfel, called out his opponent for refus- views are done. Now, the final contenders are engaged ing to clearly back Gov. Holcomb’s mask order (Howey in furious last-minute jockeying, The Hill’s Amie Parnes Politics Indiana). The campaign said that former Congress- reports. We know a few things about the kind of person man Todd Rokita issued a “purposely muddled statement” Biden will pick. The former vice president says he will Thursday that creates unnecessary confusion over his sup- pick someone he is comfortable around. And he’s pledged port of Holcomb’s executive order and his legal authority to pick a woman. Many are expecting Biden will select a to issue it. “While Congressman Rokita might have learned woman of color, although Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to speak out of both sides of his mouth in Washington is very much in the running. Others being considered D.C., it’s not going to fly here in Indiana,” said Weinzapfel, include Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), former national secu- who issued an unequivocal statement in support of the rity adviser Susan Rice and Reps. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) and order yesterday. “We are facing a resurgence of this virus Val Demings (D-Fla.). across the state and Hoosiers need and expect leader- v ship, not more political doubletalk. This isn’t about politics, ideology or anything else. This is about keeping Hoosiers safe and stopping the spread of this potentially deadly virus. The fact that Congressman Rokita refuses to support Gov. Holcomb on something so basic to the health and safety of our citizens, and on something he clearly has the legal right to do, is disqualifying. Just like Curtis Hill, Todd Page 11 diana is near the very top of the list of states with foreign and out-of-state students. There are many benefits to this, Colleges facing long- but there are risks. The response to COVID-19 magnifies these risks, and at least one research group, led by Scott term challenges Galloway of New York University, attempted to evaluate the By MICHAEL HICKS risks to schools from COVID-19 response. MUNCIE – America’s colleges and universities are Galloway’s analysis examined the value to cost in the midst of reopening in what is sure to be a reckoning ratio and a vulnerability ratio that attempted to capture its for many. My oldest already began her senior year, and my risk to COVID-19 effects on enrollment. With this, he put college sophomore heads back in early August. Both face each school into one of four categories. Of the 456 schools strict rules on mask wearing and he lists, 88 will thrive, 128 will survive, 131 will struggle, social distancing. They return to a and 89 will perish. combination of online and in-per- These measures aren’t perfect, and not every son instruction, with a schedule school made data available. However, the analysis did fraught with uncertainty. capture the gist of the problem. If universities conduct Right now, about a third in-person classes, we must expect heavy transmission of of schools have announced this disease. No matter what steps are taken in the classroom hybrid model, with more than half and on-campus, Galloway calls it “delusional” to believe planning for in-person classes. students will social distance elsewhere. A few have elected to be online If universities do not re-open, we must expect only, but this raises real chal- broad enrollment shifts between schools. For online class- lenges to colleges. I have written es, students will flee low-value schools. High-value schools, about the economic effects of which mostly aren’t low-priced schools, are safe from this the K-12 decisions before us, but calculus. The low-value schools, with low endowments there are economic effects to reopening colleges as well. and high admission rates, are the most at-risk of financial Some of the costs of COVID-19 on U.S. colleges meltdown. are already emerging. International enrollment will drop, Naturally, we should be interested in how Indiana perhaps profoundly, as few students can travel to the U.S. schools will fare. Not every school was analyzed, but the to start school. Some will take online courses, but many general outline was clear. Ball State, Wabash and Notre will opt to delay a year or substitute a Canadian or U.K. Dame are expected to thrive. All three are high-value university for a pandemic-stricken American school. This schools. Both IU and Purdue are ranked at greater risk, loss of out-of-state tuition will be enormous for some despite their high value, due to their high reliance on out- schools, and it is combined with a drop in other revenues. of-state and foreign students. Nearly every U.S. state has announced or imple- Every other university or college was on the mented budget reductions for higher education. For those list of ‘struggle’ or ‘perish’ schools. While not every school with endowments, stock volatility augers little good news was analyzed, my guess is that Butler University is the only for financial returns in the year ahead. Research dollars other Indiana school that would dodge the struggle/perish are likely to be down this year, and extra revenue from list. This should be sobering because the schools on the summer programs and athletic events face epic declines. thrive and survive lists are already conducting layoffs and Nearly every American college or university is downsizing cost-cutting programs. The economic shocks of our na- staff. tional response to COVID-19 will almost surely force some COVID-19 hits at a confusing time for Ameri- colleges in Indiana to close. can higher education. The financial returns to a college Of course, higher education has to prove its value. degree remain stunningly high, well over a million dollars Many schools entered this downturn poised to fail, and will in a lifetime. More than 80% of all the net job growth for soon close. In a perfect world, students from these schools the past 30 years has gone to college graduates. Nearly would transfer seamlessly elsewhere and graduates not see all the wage growth over 30 years went to college gradu- a devaluation of their diploma. I fear it is more likely that ates, signaling that demand for college-educated workers the most vulnerable students will slip through the cracks is outstripping the supply. and the environment for college completion will worsen At the same time, state cuts to higher education across the state. We simply cannot afford that. have increased costs to students and forced most pub- Indiana continues to lag in educational attainment, lic universities to enroll large shares of out-of-state and which fueled a steep decline in per capita personal income international students to make up the financial shortfall. relative to the U.S. We’ve slipped from 92.1% to 85.9% Thus, we have the bizarre environment where it is easier just since 2000. Today, we face a perfect storm. Heavy to get admitted to out-of-state schools than those in-state reliance on out-of-state students and a decade of declining schools of the same quality. Incentives matter. higher education funding have left Indiana at risk of steep Largely due to low and declining state support, In- declines in college attendance. Page 12 There are no easy remedies for these challenges, Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Cen- especially with state finances facing the most daunting ter for Business and Economic Research and the two years since the Great Depression. Still, the future of George and Frances Ball distinguished professor of Indiana’s economy depends on deepening our bench of economics in the Miller College of Business at Ball college graduates. If we fail that, no other policy or spend- State University. ing priority will make Indiana prosper. v

ticipation and involvement are on target, but not enough. All of us should help While I’m always encouraged by political leaders who seek to involve the public and by civic groups that try to en- revitalize democracy hance and encourage citizen participation, I believe we’re at the point where we need to repair our frayed institu- By LEE HAMILTON tions and push back against the forces that divide us. BLOOMINGTON – Amid all the troubles occupying We are, after all, the United States. Our name our attention, one of the more worrisome is also one of expresses an ideal. So, for that matter, does the course of the least visible. It is the loss of public faith in the effec- our history, which over time has trended toward expand- tiveness of our representative democracy. ing inclusivity and opportunity for all. One place to start While most state and local governments, and is to appreciate our history and take inspiration from that certain federal agencies, have history: to recognize where we’ve fallen short, but also to maintained public support during highlight the remarkable progress we’ve made and the ef- the pandemic, concern over our forts of committed citizens that made it possible. system as a whole is palpable: We also need to recognize that divisiveness weak- That it has trouble responding to ens us, and that efforts to reknit American society are now the country’s needs, is resistant urgently important. to reform as society evolves, and To that end, proposals for a year of national continues to perpetuate inequal- service strike me as particularly welcome. This would be ity, social immobility, and basic expensive but focusing young Americans on a year of unfairness when it comes to shared endeavor with others from vastly different back- creating more opportunity, liberty, grounds – in the military, in AmeriCorps, in internships or and justice for all. public-service opportunities would help meet many needs These deficiencies corrode and be well worth the expense. our unity and effectiveness as a nation. Americans increas- We also need to up our game as ordinary citizens ingly divide themselves into different, often warring, politi- and beat back the drivers of divisiveness and polarization cal and cultural camps. Instead of working to create one as we work to strengthen our communities. out of many, they sort themselves into like-minded com- Among other things, this means making an ef- munities. They narrow, rather than expand, their sources fort to seek out alternative points of view in the media and of news and information, seeking those that reinforce their paying attention to objective, factual reporting. It means views. These days, we often live in different worlds from supporting measures that bring us together, such as bring- one another. ing young people from all backgrounds and perspectives Politicians have played a significant role in this. to work side by side in projects for the public good. And Some, including the president, are bent on stoking divi- it means being thoughtful about our engagement, voting sion. Many play to their parties’ bases. And some, at both for candidates focused on pulling us together and working the state and federal level, do their best to narrow the for the common good and putting our time and effort into public support on which government rests by making it dif- causes that bring us together rather than pull us apart. ficult for everyone who’s entitled to vote to cast an actual In short, we must decide what we can do in the ballot. voting booth and in our own neighborhoods and communi- To be sure, there are plenty of efforts in many ties to revitalize our representative democracy. Our aim is communities to work against these trends, to expand to make our communities and our country better places to participation and build connections, and to decrease divi- live: more creative, inclusive, and welcoming. The answer sion. Still, the challenge we face as a nation is to revitalize lies not in the stars, but with all of us. v our democracy and its institutions. We need to strengthen representative democracy by restoring the effectiveness Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor for the Indiana of government, rebuild Congress as a functional, co-equal University Center on Representative Government; branch of the federal government, and restore confidence a Distinguished Scholar at the IU Hamilton Lugar in our institutions, public and private. School of Global and International Studies. How do we do this? Calls for greater public par- Page 13

still release carbon into the atmosphere which has bad effects on the earth’s climate.” Hoosiers in the “Darn, right,” says Big Dan, the building owner’s representative on the site. “We do it, we can pay for it. economic zone But I don’t like government taxing us.” By MORTON J. MARCUS “Oh, we don’t have to be taxed,” Rhona replies. INDIANAPOLIS – With apologies to Rod Serling, “We can buy carbon credits on the open market.” consider, if you will, Rob and Rhonda, two ordinary Hoo- Big Dan shuffles his feet indicating he doesn’t siers doing what they customarily do each weekday in the understand. Rhonda continues, “Carbon credits basically Economic Zone. give us the right to release certain amounts of carbon into Rhonda leaves the house the atmosphere where they are absorbed by someone to be at the job site by 7 a.m., else’s actions planting crops or trees that, as they grow, hard hat on, blueprints in hand. swallow up carbon.” Rob takes off at 8:10 with the kids Big Dan says, “You mean, it’s like we pay to have for elementary school and then our trash hauled away by Goldstein’s Garbage Guys?” to the public library where he will “Yes,” Rhonda confirms. “In this case, the un- drive the bookmobile and serve as wanted carbon may be absorbed by new plants on the its librarian until mid-afternoon. marginal land of a farmer in Newton County, or by new Rhonda is proud of the tree-lined streets in suburban Hendricks County, or even building her crew is constructing by a forest saved from destruction in Borneo or Brown to green standards with the latest County.” technology. Rob delights in bring- “Sounds complicated,” Big Dan says. “Yes, but it ing reading opportunities to people who find it difficult to makes sense,” Rhonda says. “You can explore how this reach a library branch. Both are warm-hearted do-gooders. works at non-profit carbonneutralindiana.org.” Neither is prepared for the crushing truth about to fall on Narrator: Two ordinary Hoosiers at work, know- them. ing how to do the right thing, while avoiding government Clouds darken over the city. Lightning flashes and involvement, by private exchange in the Economic Zone. thunder rumbles in the distance. A voice without a direc- v tion says softly, but for all to hear, “From this time forward, you will all pay for the costs you impose on others. You are Mr. Marcus is an economist. Reach him at morton- not being punished. You are merely doing right.” [email protected]. Follow his views and those of “What’s that?” Nan, the assistant librarian asks John Guy on “Who gets what?” wherever podcasts Rob. “I knew it was coming,” he replies. “We could be hit are available or at mortonjohn.libsyn.com. with a carbon tax. It’s the exhaust from this bus.” Nan shrikes in horror and flees to the back of the bus. At the construction site, a similar conversation takes place. Rhonda explains to her crew, “Stay calm. Yes, despite our good efforts, this building, when finished, will Page 14 ber. They hold only two of the nine U.S. House seats, both in the districts in which a Republican gerrymander Is this still Trumpiana? pushed as many Democratic voters as possible in order to By JACK COLWELL keep the other seven seats safe Republican. SOUTH BEND – Is this still Trumpiana? This November? Another Trumpiana landslide? Or could it again be Indiana, where Republicans Or plummeting of Trump support? Something in between clearly are in the majority, their candidates most often those two scenarios seems likely. winning, but with a functioning two-party system in which Recent polls show the president with around a Democrats have a realistic chance at times to win impor- 10-point lead in Indiana, not 19. If he continues to drop tant elective offices? in approval nationally and in Indiana as well, Trump could It became Trumpiana in 2016, with Donald Trump hinder rather than help other Republican candidates. If the carrying the state by a landslide, by over 19 percentage race tightens, with Joe Biden slipping at the end, Trump points, and sliding the land so could do very well again in Indiana. decisively that no Democrat had Democrats appear to have one shot at winning a a chance for statewide elective statewide race, only one. That’s for state attorney gen- office or much of anything. Before eral. The Democratic nominee, former Evansville Mayor that, there were such things as Jonathan Weinzapfel, is a strong contender for the office Democrats winning a Statehouse held now by tarnished Republican Curtis Hill. Republicans office, even governor, winning a dumped Hill from the ticket, enhancing chances to hold U.S. Senate seat and sometimes onto the office. Todd Rokita will be harder to defeat. winning control of the Indiana Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb, well liked, is ex- House. pected to win easily over a basically unknown and terribly Democratic oblivi- underfunded Democratic challenger, Woody Myers. on came just as Democrats looked Democrats have a real chance to pick up one to 2016 as a good year. They had reason for optimism. additional Congressional seat, in the 5th District, where John Gregg, the Democratic nominee for governor, Christina Hale, a former lieutenant governor nominee, appeared poised to defeat a struggling Republican incum- seeks an open seat vacated by a retiring Republican in- bent, Mike Pence, rather unpopular back then in Indiana. cumbent. Evan Bayh, big Democratic winner in past races for gover- Could Democrats pull upsets in other congres- nor and senator, was set to reclaim a Senate seat. Glenda sional races and state legislative contests? Sure. Not if the Ritz, the Democratic state school superintendent, who state remains Trumpiana. Possibly, however, if the land fought to protect schools from politics, was a “sure bet” this time slides away from rather than with the man for for reelection. whom the name Trumpiana was coined. v And, hey, Republicans were saddled with Trump, that reality TV and casino guy. Could Indiana actually Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- go Democratic for president, as it did in 2008 for Barack cades for the South Bend Tribune. Obama? Then, Trump won the hearts of Hoosiers, at least a whole lot of them. A bunch of others disliked him less than Hillary Clinton. Trump won narrowly in key Midwestern states, prevailing in the Electoral College. Nothing narrow about his Indiana win. He did better here than in Mississippi and about the same as in Louisiana. While Gregg and Bayh ran ahead of the Democratic presidential ticket, they were swept away in that Trumpiana landslide. So was “sure bet” Ritz. Even if Democrats didn’t hold any of the six Statehouse offices elected statewide, they still had Sen. Joe Donnelly, lone Democrat in a statewide- elective office. Polls showed him popular as he ran for re-election in 2018. President Trump went all out to defeat Donnelly, including personal pleas in Indiana appearances. Donnelly lost. So, Democrats hold no office elected state- wide. Pathetic ranks in the state legislature leave them unable even to delay anything in either cham- Page 15 It’s OK, they say, for debate to be robust and even caustic. “But it is now all too common,” they write, “to Has cancel culture hear calls for swift and severe retribution in response to perceived transgressions of speech and thought.” Such an gone too far? atmosphere, they argue, will ultimately harm “the most vi- By KELLY HAWES tal causes of our time.” “The restriction of debate, whether ANDERSON — Cancel culture is one of those rare by a repressive government or an intolerant society, invari- topics on which Barack Obama and Donald Trump seem to ably hurts those who lack power and makes everyone less agree. In remarks last fall, Obama suggested that seek- capable of democratic participation,” they write. ing to punish people you disagree with is no way to bring Among the letter’s signers was Bari Weiss, an about change. “If all you’re doing editor and columnist who subsequently had a very public is casting stones, you’re probably breakup with the opinion pages of The New York Times. In not going to get that far,” he said. her resignation letter to publisher A.G. Sulzberger, Weiss “That’s easy to do.” accused the newspaper of allowing itself to be cowed by The current president the thought police. “Twitter is not on the masthead of The offered his own take in a recent New York Times,” she wrote. “But Twitter has become its speech at Mount Rushmore. “We ultimate editor. As the ethics and mores of that platform want free and open debate, not have become those of the paper, the paper itself has in- speech codes and cancel culture,” creasingly become a kind of performance space.” he said. “We embrace tolerance, Weiss and I might not agree on much, but we not prejudice.” agree on this. Everyone should have a chance to speak. Of course, those words No one, not even those whose views we find abhorrent, ring a bit hollow coming from should be silenced. Like it or not, that’s what freedom of Donald Trump. He’s not exactly a champion of tolerance. speech is all about. v Still, a recent survey by Politico found most folks who had an opinion on the topic thought cancel culture had gone Kelly Hawes is a columnist for CNHI News Indiana. too far. A significant number, of course, were blissfully He can be reached at kelly.hawes@indianamedia- unaware of the controversy. group.com. Find him on Twitter @Kelly_Hawes. So, what is cancel culture anyway? In a Decem- ber 2019 article for Vox, Aja Romano suggested the term grew out of a line in the 1991 film, “New Jack City.” In the film, the Wesley Snipes character, a gangster named Nino Brown, has a girlfriend who objects to the violence he’s U.S. economy contracts 32.9% causing. Nino dumps her with a profane and misogynistic suggestion that she has been cancelled. Wall Street Journal Lil Wayne recalled the line almost two decades WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy contracted later in his song, “I’m Single,” and it surfaced again a few at a record 32.9% annual rate last quarter and weekly years after that in the reality show, “Love and Hip-Hop: jobless claims rose to 1.43 million, amid signs of a slowing New York.” recovery. The Commerce Department’s initial estimate of At that point, the idea of cancelling people began U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter is the to spread on social media. steepest drop in records dating to 1947. The decline came “As it caught on, however, the term began to as states imposed lockdowns across the country to con- evolve into a way of responding not just to friends or tain the coronavirus pandemic and then lifted restrictions. acquaintances, but also to celebrities or entities whose Economists expect the economy to resume growth in the behavior offended you,” Romano wrote. third quarter, which began on July 1. This month, more than 150 journalists, authors Separately, applications for unemployment benefits and academics signed onto a letter published in Harper’s increased by a seasonally adjusted 12,000 to 1.43 million Magazine. “Our cultural institutions are facing a moment for the week ended July 25, the Labor Department said of trial,” they wrote. “Powerful protests for racial and social Thursday. Filings for unemployment benefits have eased justice are leading to overdue demands for police reform, since a late-March peak but remained at historically high along with wider calls for greater equality and inclusion levels. A surge in virus infections since mid-June appears across our society, not least in higher education, journal- to be slowing the recovery in some states, according to ism, philanthropy and the arts. But this needed reckoning some private-sector real-time data. The U.S. Census Bu- has also intensified a new set of moral attitudes and politi- reau also said in its latest weekly Household Pulse Survey cal commitments that tend to weaken our norms of open that 51.1% of households experienced a loss of employ- debate and toleration of differences in favor of ideological ment income in the week ended July 21, up from 48.3% conformity.” four weeks ago. v Page 16

population. In 2010, the state receiving the largest number of Census impact on seats was California with 53; Texas followed with 36 seats, and then Florida and New York with 27 apiece. The states 2021 reapportionment of Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Da- By DUDLEY L. POSTON Jr. kota, Vermont, and Wyoming each received only one seat, and TERESA A. SULLIVAN the one they are granted automatically. CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — On July 21, 2020, President Donald Trump addressed a memorandum to Apportioning the House after ‘20 census the U.S. Department of Commerce directing the Census For this exercise, we have projected to 2020 the Bureau to report to him, in addition to the 2020 Census apportionment populations of the 50 states and then used population counts by state, the estimated numbers of the method of Equal Proportions to distribute among the undocumented immigrants by state. These data would states the remaining 385 House seats. Remember that ev- be included in his report to the ery one of the 50 states first automati- Congress on apportioning the cally receives a seat. We began with U.S. House of Representatives the estimated resident populations of for the 2022 elections. The the states for July 1, 2019 as produced New York Times reported that by the U.S. Census Bureau; we then Trump’s “action directly conflicts with the traditional con- subtracted from these 2019 estimates their July 1, 2018 sensus interpretation of the Constitution and will almost estimated counts. We then took three-fourths of the differ- surely be challenged in court, potentially delaying its effect ences, and added them to the 2019 population estimates, if not blocking its enactment altogether.” Nevertheless, we to yield the projected April 1, 2020 counts of the resident explore here the implications of the president’s directive populations of the states. To determine the overseas with respect to the 2020 apportionment of the U.S. House populations of the states, we calculated the proportion of if undocumented immigrants are excluded. Which states each state’s 2010 overseas population to its 2010 resident would gain seats and which states would lose seats? population. We multiplied these 2010 overseas proportions by the 2020 resident population projections of the states Apportioning the House in 2010 to produce overseas estimates for 2020; we added them The main objective in apportioning the U.S. House to the 2020 resident populations to produce projections of is to assign equitably the 435 seats to the 50 states; the the 2020 apportionment populations. District of Columbia is not We then allocated the House seats to the states. included in the apportion- We first gave each state its ment. The first 50 seats automatic first seat. We then are automatically assigned, used the method of Equal Pro- one per state. The method portions to assign the remain- of Equal Proportions is then ing 385 seats. We show that used to divide up the re- 10 states are projected to lose maining 385 seats among House seats in 2020: Alabama the states on the basis of -1 (from 7 to 6), California the size of their popula- -1 (from 53 to 52), Illinois -1 tions. The method deter- (from 18 to 17), Michigan -1 mines which states should (from 14 to 13), Minnesota receive second seats, -1 (from 8 to 7), New York -1 which states should receive (from 27 to 26), Ohio -1 (from third seats, and so forth. 16 to 15), Pennsylvania -1 The larger the population (from 18 to 17), Rhode Island of a state, the more seats -1 (from 2 to 1), and West it receives. The method Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2). of Equal Proportions was As those states are poised first used to apportion the to lose seats, seven states are House in 1940 and has been used ever since. projected to gain House seats in 2020. These are Texas The apportionment population of a state is defined +3 (from 36 to 39), Florida +2 (from 27 to 29), Arizona as all persons residing in the state as of April 1, plus all +1 (from 9 to 10), Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8), Montana American military and civilian personnel of the federal gov- +1 (from 1 to 2), North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14), and ernment and their dependents from the state who were Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6). residing abroad; this latter group is known as the overseas Page 17

Apportioning excluding undocumented 2 with column 4. If undocumented persons are excluded To gain an understanding of the possible effects in 2020, we predict that eight states will lose nine seats, of President Trump’s directive to exclude undocumented namely, California -2 (from 53 to 51), Illinois -1 (from 18 persons from the apportionment populations, we next de- to 17), Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13), New Jersey -1 (from veloped for the 50 states population projections and U.S. 12 to 11), New York -1 (from 27 to 26), Pennsylvania -1 House seat assignments for 2020 excluding their undocu- (from 18 to 17), Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1), and West mented residents. We first obtained estimated numbers of Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2); and we predict that seven states undocumented immigrants residing in the states in 2017 will gain nine seats in 2020, namely, Texas +2 (from 36 produced last year by demographers Jeffrey S. Passel and to 38), Florida +2 (from 27 to 29), Arizona +1 (from 9 to D’Vera Cohn of the Pew Research Center. They used a 10), Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8), Montana +1 (from 1 to 2), residual method to estimate the number of undocumented North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14), and Oregon +1 (from 5 immigrants residing in the 50 states in 2017, totaling ap- to 6). This projection is shown in Map 2. proximately 10.5 million persons. We divided these 2017 undocumented estimates of the states by the 2017 Census Technical and legal obstacles Bureau estimates of their resident populations to obtain Our estimates of the numbers of undocumented estimates of the proportion of undocumented immigrants residents for the states would not be sufficient for use in the states in 2017. We multiplied these proportions by in the official apportionment. Moreover, it is not clear the states’ projected 2020 resident populations and sub- whether the Secretary of Commerce could produce ac- tracted them from the 2020 resident populations. Finally, ceptable numbers of undocumented residents according to we added in our estimates of the states’ overseas popula- the timetable the new memorandum requires. Last year, tions, as discussed above, to produce 2020 apportionment President Trump’s Executive Order 13880 instructed the counts for the states that exclude undocumented immi- Bureau to develop its “best citizenship” assessment for grants. We are assuming that the estimated proportions each enumerated person by linking that person with ad- of undocumented immigrants in the states in 2017 are ministrative records held by government agencies. Those correct and will be the same proportions in 2020. data, however, were to be made available to the states for We then used the method of Equal Proportions to redistricting (not for apportionment) and are not due until apportion the House using these apportionment counts March 31, 2021. Also, the Supreme Court has struck down that exclude undocumented the use of sampling data for the immigrants. How do these seat purpose of congressional apportion- assignments based on 2020 ment, and a direct count is impos- counts excluding our estimated sible because of the well-publicized numbers of undocumented absence of the citizenship question. immigrants compare with 2020 Whether there is enough time by seat assignments that do not Jan. 1, 2021 to compare every cen- exclude undocumented im- sus return with administrative data migrants? Compare column 3 seems doubtful. with column 4. Three states Even if that gargantuan gain a seat in 2020 compared task could be accomplished, there to the number of seats they are are formidable obstacles both projected to receive in 2020 if statutory and constitutional with undocumented persons are not respect to the exclusion of people excluded, and three states lose who are “best guessed” not to be a seat: Alabama +1 (from 6 to legally residing in the United States, 7), Minnesota +1 (from 7 to 8), according to Martin Lederman of and Ohio +1 (from 15 to 16); the Georgetown University Law and California -1 (from 52 to 51), New Jersey -1 (from 12 Center. Among these issues is that the only constitution- to 11), and Texas -1 (from 39 to 38). ally established exclusion is for “Indians not taxed.” Also, Steven A. Camarota and Karen Zeigler of the the Constitution requires that apportionment be based on Center for Immigration Studies published research late the actual number of inhabitants. Moreover, the president’s last year in which they also apportioned the House after recent innovation in apportionment runs counter to the excluding undocumented residents. Their results are the governing statute (2 U.S.C. §2a), which requires him to re- same as our results, except that they show New York, and port “the whole number of persons in each state” and “the not New Jersey, losing a seat. number of Representatives to which each state would be Finally, if the 2020 apportionment excludes un- entitled . . . by the method known as the method of equal documented immigrants, what will be the changes in seat proportions.” v assignments between 2010 and 2020? Compare column Page 18 Thomas Friedman, New York Times: When can people don’t forfeit our constitutional rights.” What people ask me about my mood these days, I tell them a fraud. But let’s give a small shout-out to Republican that I feel like I’m a reporter for The Pompeii Daily News governors Larry Hogan of Maryland, Mike DeWine of Ohio, in A.D. 79, and I’m sitting in the foothills of Mount Vesu- Eric Holcomb of Indiana and Kay Ivey of Alabama, who vius and someone just walked up and asked, “Hey, do you have been or become pro-mask. It is not only good for feel a rumbling?” Do I ever. The summer of 2020 could their states’ physical health but also the country’s political be remembered as one of those truly important dates in health. v American history. Everywhere you turn you see parents who don’t know where or if their kids will go to school Hugh Hewitt, Washington Post: Republicans this fall, renters who don’t know when or if they will be hold statehouses in some big states and there the counts evicted, unemployed who don’t know what if any safety look like this: Florida has seen 5,931 deaths, Texas net Congress will put under them, businesses that with 5,085 fatalities and Ohio with 3,344. Ari- don’t know how or if they can hold on another day zona, also with a GOP governor, has 3,304 dead. — and none of us who know whether we’ll be able Thus, of the 10 states with the most fatalities, the to vote in November. That is a lot of hot, molten six highest tolls are all in states with Democratic anxiety building up beneath our economy, society, leadership. Republicans run the virus response in schools and city streets — just waiting to blow the top off states ranked seventh through 10th in this grim lineup. our country — because we have so failed at managing the How often have you seen those harshest of facts? Instead, coronavirus. We have 25% of all recorded infections in the the headlines trumpet new cases, where California leads world, and we’re only 4% of the world’s population. In the with 453,155 cases, Florida with 432,747, New York with ultimate irony, Vietnam, which has a little less than one- 412,344 cases and Texas with 394,927. Case numbers third of our population but has reported only 416 cases follow population totals fairly closely, but Florida Gov. Ron and no deaths, is feeling sorry for us. DeSantis (R) is pummeled by New York and Beltway me- How did we get so inept? If, God forbid, America were dia, while New York’s Andrew M. Cuomo (D) gets at least a buried under lava the way Pompeii was and future ar- pass and often praise. The pandemic is not political. It isn’t chaeologists were to come along and dig it out, I have no a Republican or a Democratic disease. Reopening of states doubt that the artifact they’d dust off and hold up first to led to spread. If the mass demonstrations around Memo- answer that huge question would be a simple item that rial Day did not contribute to spread, it is hard for me costs pennies to make and is so easy to wear: the face to imagine that they reduced it. Trump hoped that sum- mask. For something that’s supposed to cover our mouths mer’s heat would rout the virus and that has obviously not it speaks volumes about how crazy some have gotten. occurred. Few have all the right calls here; life generally Specifically, that face mask tells how the world’s cannot contain an invisible virus spread by asymptomatic richest and most scientifically advanced country gener- carriers. v ated a cadre of leaders and citizens who made wearing a covering over their nose and mouth to prevent the spread Wall Street Journal: Trump support- of a contagion into a freedom-of-speech issue and cultural Jason Riley, ers don’t like to hear this, but with just over three months marker — something no other country in the world did. to go before Election Day, their guy is playing catch-up. There is nothing more demoralizing than this, nothing that Yes, some pollsters were off four years ago, but that set us back in the fight against Covid-19 further and faster. merely confirms that polls (and pundits) are fallible, not A society that can politicize something as simple as a face that they’re always wrong and should be ignored. The mask in a pandemic can politicize anything, can make president often derides polls that show him trailing, but if anything a wedge issue — physics, gravity, rainfall, you he didn’t take them seriously he wouldn’t have replaced name it. And a society that politicizes everything will never his campaign manager earlier this month. Mr. Trump realize its full potential in good times or prevent the worst preferred to run against a progressive Democrat. But Joe in bad times. President Trump’s resistance to masks actu- Biden spoiled those plans, and the Covid-19 response ally had nothing to do with ideology. It was just his primi- stamped out the president’s best argument for re-election: tive opposition to anything that would highlight the true a growing economy with low unemployment and rising health crisis we were in and that therefore might hurt his wages among broad swaths of workers. Mr. Trump’s big- re-election. But Vice President Mike Pence — always happy gest problem is that Mr. Biden isn’t Hillary Clinton, and it to put lipstick on Trump’s piggishness — dressed up his can’t be overstated how much the president benefited four crude mask-resistance in elegant constitutional garb. When years ago from anti-Clinton sentiment. Back in 2016, vot- asked by a reporter at Trump’s Tulsa rally a few weeks ers who said they didn’t like either candidate went with Mr. ago why the president appeared unconcerned about the Trump over Mrs. Clinton, 47% to 30%, and helped put him absence of masks and social distancing at his event, Pence over the top in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania solemnly intoned: “I want to remind you again, freedom and Wisconsin. This year, voters with a negative opinion of speech and the right to peaceably assemble is in the of both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden say they favor the former Constitution of the U.S. Even in a health crisis, the Ameri- vice president by 60% to 10%. v Page 19

chloroquine as an unproven treatment share resources among its publica- Holcomb keeps for COVID-19 (Huffington Post). The tions, thereby reducing costs — some- meeting came as video of a Monday thing our family, owner of one news- state at stage 4.5 press conference held by the group paper, couldn’t do. INDIANAPOLIS — As CO- was going mega-viral online, racking VID-19 cases are on the rise again in up tens of millions of views and lead- IMPD announces parts of Indiana, Gov. Eric Holcomb on ing to a widespread effort by social media companies to remove the video new use of force Wednesday announced plans to keep the state in its current phase for re- and penalize some people who shared it, including one of the president’s INDIANAPOLIS — The India- opening for another four weeks while napolis Metropolitan Police Depart- urging Hoosiers to wear masks to curb sons. Pence’s office did not publicize the meeting nor respond to requests ment announced Wednesday that it the spread (Cross, NWI Times). Hol- has adopted new use-of-force policies comb did say local governments with for comment, but several members of the group tweeted Tuesday evening in the wake of nationwide protests hot spots can impose more stringent over racial injustice sparked by George guidelines if they so choose. Gary, that the meeting had just occurred. “Just finished a great meeting with Floyd’s death in Minneapolis police Michigan City and Whiting, for exam- custody (AP). The department said the ple, have closed their beaches, with Vice President Mike Pence and his Chief of Staff,” wrote James Todaro, new policies include an emphasis on many city leaders worried of the rise deescalating potentially volatile situ- in cases among young adults exhibit- a member of the group who trained as an ophthalmologist. “We ations and explicitly ban officers from ing risky social behavior. using chokeholds and shooting into or “What I’m reminded of are doing everything to restore the power of medicine back to from moving vehicles. “The adoption on a daily basis is this of these new use of force standards virus will take what we doctors. Doctors everywhere should be able to prescribe is a substantial milestone, one that I give it,” Holcomb said. hope demonstrates our commitment “So it’s incumbent upon Hydroxychloroquine without repercussions or obstruction.” to building community trust and devel- us to be on our best behavior.” Over oping stronger neighborhood partner- the last week, the state health de- Dubois Herald ships to address violent crime,” Chief partment has reported 6,400 new Randal Taylor said in a statement. cases — which accounts for 10% of all sold to Paxton cases identified since the beginning of JASPER — The Rumbach Mystery seeds are March, according to Dr. Kristina Box, family has published The Herald for the state health commissioner. She more than 100 years of the newspa- Chinese bush clover said 630 new cases were reported per’s 125-year history. On Aug. 1, the INDIANAPOLIS — More today in Indiana on Wednesday. In total, Paxton family, newspaper publishers 64,299 Hoosiers have tested posi- on the mystery seeds showing up on since 1896, will assume ownership doorsteps around the country from tive for the virus. Under Stage 4.5, and will produce and print that Sat- restaurant dining rooms can open at China. Utah agriculture officials have urday’s Herald. It’s no secret that the done testing and they do contain 75% capacity, and places like zoos, newspaper industry has experienced museums, movie theaters and bowl- a plant considered a noxious weed major disruptions over the last couple in the Midwest (Pfeiffer, Hoosier Ag ing alleys can open at half-capacity. of decades. More than 2,000 newspa- Bars, nightclubs, and tourism sites can Today). Robert Hoggard, director of pers, large and small, but especially Plant Industry at the Utah Department operate at 50% capacity. Rather than family-owned, community newspa- imposing more restrictions, Holcomb of Agriculture, says they have already pers, have closed or been sold. We identified several seeds. “There’s been said he plans to keep Indiana in Stage were fortunate that the disruptions 4.5 until Aug. 27. He announced the some roses, some rose species. A took as long as they did to reach us. lespedeza species, which is noxious state’s moratorium on rental evictions Ultimately, The Herald no longer had will be extended through Aug. 14. in some of the Midwestern states, enough subscribers or local advertis- specifically Kansas, it’s a Chinese Pence meets with ing revenue to support the quality bush clover. There’s one that’s an community newspaper and website Asian herb that’s in the mint family. controversial group that our readers were accustomed And then there’s been flower species, to — and producing a quality newspa- some of those that we already have in MIDLAND, Tex. — Vice Presi- per has always been our priority. The the United States and wouldn’t be a dent Mike Pence held a quiet meeting Paxton Media Group, which publishes problem. But, some of these really are on Tuesday with a group called Amer- more than 70 newspapers across the a concern, we don’t want to get those ica’s Frontline Doctors to discuss the Midwest and Southwest, including 12 established here.” use of the anti-malarial drug hydroxy- dailies in Indiana, has the ability to