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Understanding the 2016 Gubernatorial Elections by Jennifer M

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Understanding the 2016 Gubernatorial Elections by Jennifer M GOVERNORS The National Mood and the Seats in Play: Understanding the 2016 Gubernatorial Elections By Jennifer M. Jensen and Thad Beyle With a national anti-establishment mood and 12 gubernatorial elections—eight in states with a Democrat as sitting governor—the Republicans were optimistic that they would strengthen their hand as they headed into the November elections. Republicans already held 31 governor- ships to the Democrats’ 18—Alaska Gov. Bill Walker is an Independent—and with about half the gubernatorial elections considered competitive, Republicans had the potential to increase their control to 36 governors’ mansions. For their part, Democrats had a realistic chance to convert only a couple of Republican governorships to their party. Given the party’s win-loss potential, Republicans were optimistic, in a good position. The Safe Races North Dakota Races in Delaware, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah Republican incumbent Jack Dalrymple announced and Washington were widely considered safe for he would not run for another term as governor, the incumbent party. opening the seat up for a competitive Republican primary. North Dakota Attorney General Wayne Delaware Stenehjem received his party’s endorsement at Popular Democratic incumbent Jack Markell was the Republican Party convention, but multimil- term-limited after fulfilling his second term in office. lionaire Doug Burgum challenged Stenehjem in Former Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, the primary despite losing the party endorsement. eldest son of former Vice President Joe Biden, was Lifelong North Dakota resident Burgum had once considered a shoo-in to succeed Markell before founded a software company, Great Plains Soft- a 2014 recurrence of brain cancer led him to stay ware, that was eventually purchased by Microsoft out of the race. (Beau Biden died in May of 2015.) four years after it went public; Burgum subse- U.S. Representative John Carney, a former Del- quently worked as a Microsoft executive until 2007. aware lieutenant governor, ran unopposed in the Burgum was well known for his efforts to revital- Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign. Car- ize downtown Fargo as well as his ventures with ney, a former aide to Joe Biden when Biden served several technology firms. Burgum and Stenehjem in the U.S. Senate, had lost to Markell in a tight both spent over $1 million in the primary cam- race in the 2008 Democratic primary for governor. paign, but Burgum supplemented his campaign State Sen. Colin Bonini handily won nearly 70 with his own contributions.3 An early supporter percent of the vote in the Republican primary race of Donald Trump, Burgum attacked Stenehjem as against Lacey Lafferty, a retired state trooper who being a supporter of the Affordable Care Act and did not have electoral experience. Bonini recog- used his own and his donors’ campaign contribu- nized that he would have an uphill battle to beat tions to dominate the media. Burgum defeated Carney, but stated that he believed that “Delawar- Stenehjem in the Republican primary by a margin eans deserve an election, not a coronation.”1 Carney of 59 to 38 percent. Burgum received nearly $1.6 had a far easier time raising funds in a state where million in contributions between declaring for gov- 60 percent of registered voters are Democrats, and ernor in January 2016 and the general election in had not had a Republican governor since Mike Castle November.4 served from 1985–1992. Carney was criticized for Republicans have held the governorship in North not staking out specific policy positions for much Dakota since 1993, and Republicans have held the of the campaign, a tactic he could afford given his governorship and both houses of the Legislature front-runner status.2 Carney won the general elec- since 1995. After winning the Republican primary, tion with 58 percent of the vote to Bonini’s 39 Burgum had an easy road to a general election win percent. The Libertarian and Green Party candi- over Democrat Marvin Nelson, a state representative dates each received under 2 percent of the vote. who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. The Council of State Governments 159 GOVERNORS Table A: Gubernatorial Elections: 1970–2016 Number of incumbent governors Democratic Lost winner Eligible to run Actually ran Won Number In general Year of races Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent In primary election 1970 35 22 63% 29 83% 24 83% 16 64% 8 36% 1 (a) 7 (b) 1971 3 3 100 0 . 1972 18 11 61 15 83 11 73 7 64 4 36 2 (c) 2 (d) 1973 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 . 1 100 1 (e) . 1974 35 27 (f) 77 29 83 22 76 17 77 5 24 1 (g) 4 (h) 1975 3 3 100 2 66 2 100 2 100 . 1976 14 9 64 12 86 8 67 5 63 3 33 1 (i) 2 (j) 1977 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 1 100 . 1978 36 21 58 29 81 23 79 16 70 7 30 2 (k) 5 (l) 1979 3 2 67 0 . 1980 13 6 46 12 92 12 100 7 58 5 42 2 (m) 3 (n) 1981 2 1 50 0 . 1982 36 27 75 33 92 25 76 19 76 6 24 1 (o) 5 (p) 1983 3 3 100 1 33 1 100 . 1 100 1 (q) . 1984 13 5 38 9 69 6 67 4 67 2 33 . 2 (r) 1985 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 1 100 . 1986 36 19 53 24 67 18 75 15 83 3 18 1 (s) 2 (t) 1987 3 3 100 2 67 1 50 . 1 100 1 (u) . 1988 12 5 42 9 75 9 100 8 89 1 11 . 1 (v) 1989 2 2 100 0 . 1990 36 19 (w) 53 33 92 23 70 17 74 6 26 . 6 (x) 1991 3 2 67 2 67 2 100 . 2 100 1 (y) 1 (z) 1992 12 8 67 9 75 4 44 4 100 . 1993 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 . 1 100 . 1 (aa) 1994 36 11 (bb) 31 30 83 23 77 17 74 6 26 2 (cc) 4 (dd) 1995 3 1 33 2 67 1 50 1 100 . 1996 11 7 64 9 82 7 78 7 100 . 1997 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 1 100 . 1998 36 11 (ee) 31 27 75 25 93 23 92 2 8 . 2 (ff) 1999 3 2 67 2 67 2 100 2 100 . 2000 11 8 73 7 88 6 86 5 83 1 17 . 1 (gg) 2001 2 2 100 0 . 2002 36 14 39 22 61 16 73 12 75 4 25 . 4 (hh) 2003 4 (ii) 1 25 2 50 2 100 . 2 100 . 2 (jj) 2004 11 6 55 11 100 8 73 4 50 4 50 2 (kk) 2 (ll) 2005 2 2 100 1 50 . 2006 36 20 56 31 86 27 87 25 93 2 7 1 (mm) 1 (nn) 2007 3 1 33 3 100 2 67 1 50 1 50 . 1 (oo) 2008 11 7 64 9 82 8 89 8 100 . 2009 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 . 1 100 . 1 (pp) 2010 37 13 35 22 60 14 64 11 79 3 21 1 (qq) 2 (rr) 2011 4 2 50 3 75 3 100 3 100 0 0 0 0 2012 12 7 58 8 67 7 88 7 100 . 2013 2 1 50 1 50 1 50 1 100 0 0 0 0 2014 36 13 36 31 86 29 81 25 86 4 14 1 (ss) 3 (tt) 2015 3 1 33 1 33 1 33 1 33 0 0 0 0 2016 12 6 50 9 75 5 (uu) 56 4 80 1 20 0 1 (uu) Totals 637 337 487 384 297 87 22 64 Source: The Council of State Governments, The Book of the (i) Dan Walker, D-Ill. States, 2016 (Lexington, KY: The Council of State Governments, (j) Sherman Tribbitt, D-Del.; Christopher ‘Kit’ Bond, R-Mo. 2016), 148–149, updated. (k) Michael Dukakis, D-Mass., Dolph Briscoe, D-Texas. Key: (l) Robert F. Bennett, R-Kan.; Rudolph G. Perpich, D-Minn.; (a) Albert Brewer, D-Alabama. Meldrim Thompson, R-N.H.; Robert Straub, D-Ore.; Martin J. (b) Keith Miller, R-Alaska; Winthrop Rockefeller, R-Ark.; Claude Schreiber, D-Wis. Kirk, R-Fla.; Don Samuelson, R-Idaho; Norbert Tieman, R-Neb.; (m) Thomas L. Judge, D-Mont.; Dixy Lee Ray, D-Wash. Dewey Bartlett, R-Okla.; Frank Farrar, R-S.D. (n) Bill Clinton, D-Ark.; Joseph P. Teasdale, D-Mo.; Arthur A. (c) Walter Peterson, R-N.H.; Preston Smith, D-Texas. Link, D-N.D. (d) Russell Peterson, R-Del.; Richard Ogilvie, R-Ill. (o) Edward J. King, D-Mass. (e) William Cahill, R-N.J. (p) Frank D. White, R-Ark.; Charles Thone, R-Neb.; Robert F. (f) One independent candidate won: James Longley of Maine. List, R-Nev.; Hugh J. Gallen, D-N.H.; William P. Clements, R-Texas. (g) David Hall, D-Okla. (q) David Treen, R-La. (h) John Vanderhoof, R-Colo.; Francis Sargent, R-Mass.; Malcolm Wilson, R-N.Y.; John Gilligan, D-Ohio. Footnotes are continued on the next page. 160 The Book of the States 2017 GOVERNORS Table A: Gubernatorial Elections: 1970–2016, Footnotes Continued (r) Allen I. Olson, R-N.D.; John D. Spellman, R-Wash. (hh) Don Siegelman, D-Ala.; Roy Barnes, D-Ga., Jim Hodges, (s) Bill Sheffield, D-Alaska. D-S.C.; and Scott McCallum, R-Wis. (t) Mark White, D-Texas; Anthony S.
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