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Zimbabwe Crisis Reports Issue 28 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS Issue 28 APRIL 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation ANGER AT MBEKI’S “NO CRISIS” COMMENT South African leader’s attempt to play honest broker undermined by his support for Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, analysts say. By Joseph Sithole in Harare Zimbabweans calling for the release of the long-delayed result of the presidential election have voiced anger and disappointment at South African president Thabo Mbeki’s statement that there is no crisis in their country. The South African leader, who has Credit: Lazele always claimed that his policy of “quiet South Africa president Thabo Mbeki (right) at State House during his mediation effort. diplomacy” is the most effective way of Picture taken November 22, 2007. dealing with Zimbabwe and who played the role of mediator in talks The following day, the Zimbabwe The opposition fears this means the between the ruling ZANU-PF and the Electoral Commission, ZEC, announced still-unannounced result of the opposition ahead of the March 29 a recount in 23 constituencies for all presidential ballot will be altered in elections, made the remark after four elections — to the presidency, the Mugabe’s favour, and insists its meeting President Robert Mugabe in upper and lower houses of parliament candidate Morgan Tsvangirai has won Harare on April 12. and local councils. outright. NEWS IN BRIEF On April 12, the Zimbabwe Electoral not widely supported, while police consternation by saying that what Commission, ZEC, said it was holding maintained a heavy presence in was happening in Zimbabwe was not a recount in 23 constituencies for all central Harare. a crisis but a “normal political the elections held on March 29. there process”. are fears this could result in Robert President Robert Mugabe boycotted Mugabe being declared the winner in the April 12 emergency summit called The French news agency AFP reported the presidential ballot, and reverse by the Southern African Development on April 16 that humanitarian aid the victory won by the opposition Community, SADC. When the meeting programmes were suffering because Movement for Democratic Change, was called, SADC members had of the current political crisis. It MDC, in the parliamentary poll. expressed concern at the delay in quoted major aid agencies as saying releasing the poll results. The final they had cut back activities on the The MDC called a general strike for communique issued after the meeting ground because the situation was so April 15 after the High Court turned was not, however, strongly worded. sensitive. One unnamed group cited down its appeal to force the ZEC to reports of intimidation, noting that announce the result of the South African president Thabo Mbeki non-government organisations were presidential election. Early reports in saw Mugabe in Harare on his way to viewed by Mugabe supporters as the media suggested the strike was the meeting, and caused some sympathetic to the opposition. APRIL 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING Election officials continue to refuse to Suggesting that the only real problem “What we have is a president... now declare a winner. On April 14 the was the lack of a clear winner, and continuing to rule by decree because opposition called a general strike for that this would require a second, run- there is no cabinet and there is no the following day after losing a High off presidential election, he told parliament. These are elementary Court bid to force the ZEC to reporters, “I would not describe that as issues that Mbeki should be alive to, announce the result of the vote. a crisis. It is a normal election and yet he sees no crisis. Does a process, according to the laws of crisis necessarily mean dead bodies The recount could also affect the Zimbabwe.” on the streets as happened in Kenya?” distribution of seats in the lower chamber of parliament, the House of Mbeki’s comments were in sharp A political analyst, who also did not Assembly. As things stand, the main contrast to a more robust statement want to be named, expressed similar faction of the opposition Movement for made by the SADC’s chairman, concerns that Zimbabwe could Democratic Change, MDC, led by Zambian president Levy Mwanawasa, descend into the kind of violence that Morgan Tsvangirai, has 99 seats, when he called the summit last week. erupted in Kenya over the New Year ahead of the 97 won by ZANU-PF. The following a disputed presidential smaller MDC faction led by Arthur Mwanawasa said the regional election. Mutambara managed to win ten seats, grouping could not turn a blind eye potentially giving the opposition 109 when “one of its members is seats if it teams up with Tsvangirai’s experiencing political pain”. people on legislation. “What was the whole point He noted that everyone was still “in the of this election if people dark” about who won the presidential are not told how they election, adding, “Our concern in the voted?” — research “It is a normal election SADC region is that the failure on analyst. process” — South African behalf of the Zimbabwe Electoral president Thabo Mbeki. Commission to announce the results of the presidential election has given rise to a climate of tension in the country.” “Mbeki is clearly not telling the full story about what is happening in the country,” he said. “There can be a When the Southern African serious crisis in a country without Development Community, SADC, a “It is shocking that Mbeki people being slaughtered. regional grouping in which South Zimbabweans have so far rejected the Africa is a key player, held an can say such a thing... These Kenyan model because they believe emergency summit in Zambia on April are elementary issues that the international community can help. 12, many Zimbabweans expected it to Mbeki should be alive to, But for how long can a people restrain issue a categorical demand for the and yet he sees no crisis” themselves when the political situation ZEC to release the presidential result. — Zimbabwean journalist. continues to deteriorate?” Mugabe clearly believed the same He claimed it was hypocritical of thing — he refused to attend, for the Mbeki to say there was no crisis when first time since taking power 28 years his own government was deporting ago. A veteran Zimbabwean journalist in hundreds of Zimbabwean economic Harare said he was “shocked” by and political refugees from South Earlier in the week, SADC members Mbeki’s comments that there was no Africa every month. had expressed concern at the delay in crisis, at a time when there has releasing the poll results. officially been no government in The analyst suggested that the charge almost three weeks after the SADC’s hesitation about taking a The Zimbabwean leader need not elections. As required by law, Mugabe tougher line with Zimbabwe stemmed have worried, though. The dismissed the cabinet ahead of the from a desire to somehow contain the communiqué released after the election, although he has since crisis at a southern African regional emergency meeting contained a recalled his ministers in move his level. feeble appeal to the country’s political opponents regard as illegal. leaders “to embark with humility and He said that members of the grouping seize the opportunity to turn over a “Given the current climate of fear and feared that if the political stalemate new leaf in their beloved country”. anxiety, it is shocking that Mbeki can were to be formally defined as a say such a thing. In the normal course “crisis”, it would need to be taken up Mbeki set the tone of the meeting of things, a new president should have by the African Union’s Council of when he dropped into Harare and met been sworn in, or the old one sworn in Ministers and thereafter by the United Mugabe en route to Zambia. if he had won,” said the journalist. Nations Security Council. That is 2 ISSUE 28 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS something African leaders have always resisted, because they do not KEEPING THE MILITARY want former colonial powers, notably Britain, to seize the initiative from them. ON SIDE “The real trouble is that opinion is divided on what to do, because none of the countries in the region can take unilateral action against Mugabe,” said the analyst. “Legally, there is also nothing they can do — even as a group — except to rely on the goodwill of the member states. Unfortunately. Mugabe is proving not to be a neighbourly brother in his dealing with his comrades.” Mbeki’s latest comments have damaged his credibility with opponents of Mugabe. “I think Mbeki is becoming part of the problem. He is Credit: Lazele now complicit in our crisis” Zimbabwe Defence Forces chief Constantine Chiwenga at the national shrine in Harare, — analyst. Picture taken July 2007. Top brass pledges to back the country’s post-election chaos, and Mugabe to the end, but the Southern African Development lower ranks seem less Community holding an emergency “What does Mbeki mean by saying weekend meeting on the crisis on April there is no crisis in Zimbabwe, three committed to defending a 12, analysts are warning a “silent weeks after elections and there are no regime that cannot feed coup” is under way. results?” said a senior researcher with them. a local think-tank. “Doesn’t a denial of Over his 28 years in power, Mugabe the results constitute a violation of the By Yamikani Mwando in has relied on the security forces to people’s right to know? What was the Bulawayo maintain grip on power, and now he whole point of this election if people may be planning to use them to are not told how they voted?” effectively nullify the poll results.
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