CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 28 APRIL 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

ANGER AT MBEKI’S “NO CRISIS” COMMENT

South African leader’s attempt to play honest broker undermined by his support for Zimbabwe’s Mugabe, analysts say.

By Joseph Sithole in

Zimbabweans calling for the release of the long-delayed result of the presidential election have voiced anger and disappointment at South African president ’s statement that there is no crisis in their country.

The South African leader, who has Credit: Lazele always claimed that his policy of “quiet president Thabo Mbeki (right) at during his mediation effort. diplomacy” is the most effective way of Picture taken November 22, 2007. dealing with Zimbabwe and who played the role of mediator in talks The following day, the Zimbabwe The opposition fears this means the between the ruling ZANU-PF and the Electoral Commission, ZEC, announced still-unannounced result of the opposition ahead of the March 29 a recount in 23 constituencies for all presidential ballot will be altered in elections, made the remark after four elections — to the presidency, the Mugabe’s favour, and insists its meeting President Robert Mugabe in upper and lower houses of parliament candidate has won Harare on April 12. and local councils. outright.

NEWS IN BRIEF On April 12, the Zimbabwe Electoral not widely supported, while police consternation by saying that what Commission, ZEC, said it was holding maintained a heavy presence in was happening in Zimbabwe was not a recount in 23 constituencies for all central Harare. a crisis but a “normal political the elections held on March 29. there process”. are fears this could result in Robert President Robert Mugabe boycotted Mugabe being declared the winner in the April 12 emergency summit called The French news agency AFP reported the presidential ballot, and reverse by the Southern African Development on April 16 that humanitarian aid the victory won by the opposition Community, SADC. When the meeting programmes were suffering because Movement for Democratic Change, was called, SADC members had of the current political crisis. It MDC, in the parliamentary poll. expressed concern at the delay in quoted major aid agencies as saying releasing the poll results. The final they had cut back activities on the The MDC called a general strike for communique issued after the meeting ground because the situation was so April 15 after the High Court turned was not, however, strongly worded. sensitive. One unnamed group cited down its appeal to force the ZEC to reports of intimidation, noting that announce the result of the South African president Thabo Mbeki non-government organisations were presidential election. Early reports in saw Mugabe in Harare on his way to viewed by Mugabe supporters as the media suggested the strike was the meeting, and caused some sympathetic to the opposition.

APRIL 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

Election officials continue to refuse to Suggesting that the only real problem “What we have is a president... now declare a winner. On April 14 the was the lack of a clear winner, and continuing to rule by decree because opposition called a general strike for that this would require a second, run- there is no cabinet and there is no the following day after losing a High off presidential election, he told parliament. These are elementary Court bid to force the ZEC to reporters, “I would not describe that as issues that Mbeki should be alive to, announce the result of the vote. a crisis. It is a normal election and yet he sees no crisis. Does a process, according to the laws of crisis necessarily mean dead bodies The recount could also affect the Zimbabwe.” on the streets as happened in ?” distribution of seats in the lower chamber of parliament, the House of Mbeki’s comments were in sharp A political analyst, who also did not Assembly. As things stand, the main contrast to a more robust statement want to be named, expressed similar faction of the opposition Movement for made by the SADC’s chairman, concerns that Zimbabwe could Democratic Change, MDC, led by Zambian president , descend into the kind of violence that Morgan Tsvangirai, has 99 seats, when he called the summit last week. erupted in Kenya over the New Year ahead of the 97 won by ZANU-PF. The following a disputed presidential smaller MDC faction led by Arthur Mwanawasa said the regional election. Mutambara managed to win ten seats, grouping could not turn a blind eye potentially giving the opposition 109 when “one of its members is seats if it teams up with Tsvangirai’s experiencing political pain”. people on legislation. “What was the whole point He noted that everyone was still “in the of this election if people dark” about who won the presidential are not told how they election, adding, “Our concern in the voted?” — research “It is a normal election SADC region is that the failure on analyst. process” — South African behalf of the Zimbabwe Electoral president Thabo Mbeki. Commission to announce the results of the presidential election has given rise to a climate of tension in the country.” “Mbeki is clearly not telling the full story about what is happening in the country,” he said. “There can be a When the Southern African serious crisis in a country without Development Community, SADC, a “It is shocking that Mbeki people being slaughtered. regional grouping in which South Zimbabweans have so far rejected the Africa is a key player, held an can say such a thing... These Kenyan model because they believe emergency summit in on April are elementary issues that the international community can help. 12, many Zimbabweans expected it to Mbeki should be alive to, But for how long can a people restrain issue a categorical demand for the and yet he sees no crisis” themselves when the political situation ZEC to release the presidential result. — Zimbabwean journalist. continues to deteriorate?” Mugabe clearly believed the same He claimed it was hypocritical of thing — he refused to attend, for the Mbeki to say there was no crisis when first time since taking power 28 years his own government was deporting ago. A veteran Zimbabwean journalist in hundreds of Zimbabwean economic Harare said he was “shocked” by and political refugees from South Earlier in the week, SADC members Mbeki’s comments that there was no Africa every month. had expressed concern at the delay in crisis, at a time when there has releasing the poll results. officially been no government in The analyst suggested that the charge almost three weeks after the SADC’s hesitation about taking a The Zimbabwean leader need not elections. As required by law, Mugabe tougher line with Zimbabwe stemmed have worried, though. The dismissed the cabinet ahead of the from a desire to somehow contain the communiqué released after the election, although he has since crisis at a southern African regional emergency meeting contained a recalled his ministers in move his level. feeble appeal to the country’s political opponents regard as illegal. leaders “to embark with humility and He said that members of the grouping seize the opportunity to turn over a “Given the current climate of fear and feared that if the political stalemate new leaf in their beloved country”. anxiety, it is shocking that Mbeki can were to be formally defined as a say such a thing. In the normal course “crisis”, it would need to be taken up Mbeki set the tone of the meeting of things, a new president should have by the ’s Council of when he dropped into Harare and met been sworn in, or the old one sworn in Ministers and thereafter by the United Mugabe en route to Zambia. if he had won,” said the journalist. Nations Security Council. That is

2 ISSUE 28 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS something African leaders have always resisted, because they do not KEEPING THE MILITARY want former colonial powers, notably Britain, to seize the initiative from them. ON SIDE

“The real trouble is that opinion is divided on what to do, because none of the countries in the region can take unilateral action against Mugabe,” said the analyst. “Legally, there is also nothing they can do — even as a group — except to rely on the goodwill of the member states. Unfortunately. Mugabe is proving not to be a neighbourly brother in his dealing with his comrades.”

Mbeki’s latest comments have damaged his credibility with opponents of Mugabe.

“I think Mbeki is becoming

part of the problem. He is Credit: Lazele now complicit in our crisis” chief Constantine Chiwenga at the national shrine in Harare, — analyst. Picture taken July 2007. Top brass pledges to back the country’s post-election chaos, and Mugabe to the end, but the Southern African Development lower ranks seem less Community holding an emergency “What does Mbeki mean by saying weekend meeting on the crisis on April there is no crisis in Zimbabwe, three committed to defending a 12, analysts are warning a “silent weeks after elections and there are no regime that cannot feed coup” is under way. results?” said a senior researcher with them. a local think-tank. “Doesn’t a denial of Over his 28 years in power, Mugabe the results constitute a violation of the By Yamikani Mwando in has relied on the security forces to people’s right to know? What was the maintain grip on power, and now he whole point of this election if people may be planning to use them to are not told how they voted?” effectively nullify the poll results. As the impasse around Zimbabwe’s Expressing a view now held by many, presidential election continues, she said, “I think Mbeki is becoming analysts say much now depends on part of the problem. He is now which way the powerful security forces Mugabe may be planning to complicit in our crisis and is doing a will jump if they are asked to prop up use the security forces to major discredit to his so-called ‘quiet President Robert Mugabe. maintain his grip in power. diplomacy’, which has perhaps compounded our crisis.” For the moment, it seems defence and police chiefs will maintain their loyalty She said there was now a need for the to the president and will do what it In the March parliamentary election, crisis to be acknowledged so as to takes to keep him in power. But rank- official results show that the two open the way for intervention by the and-file soldiers and police have factions of the Movement for wider international community. suffered from the country’s precipitous Democratic Change, MDC, have economic decline, and appear less wrested control of the lower chamber “So long as there is denial, there won’t willing to go on blindly supporting from Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party, while be any action,” she said. Mugabe. the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, has stalled on releasing the Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of a With United Nations Secretary General outcome of the presidential vote held reporter in Zimbabwe. Ban Ki-moon expressing concern at the same day.

APRIL 2008 3 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

MDC Morgan Tsvangirai, who insists This week, a young professional There is some suggestion the division he has won the presidential election, soldier told IWPR that he was beaten lives on under the surface, making reportedly asked for a meeting with up at a Bulawayo army base after parts of the military more open to security and army officials to discuss being accused of supporting the talking to the MDC than might be the transitional arrangements for MDC. The man, who has fled to South thought. According to a former lecturer Mugabe leaving office. Prior to the Africa and cannot be named for safety at the National University of Science election, defence chief Constantine reasons, said the assault took place and Technology, it is significant that Chiwenga, police chief Augustine after he resigned from the army in former ZIPRA officers have not joined Chihuri and penal service head early April and returned to barracks to colleagues in speaking out robustly in Paradzayi Zimondi declared they hand in his uniform. support of Mugabe. would “not salute” a future president Tsvangirai. “I was locked up in a room, where I was thrashed all over my body and accused of attempting to abscond so “Sentiment across the that I could join Morgan Tsvangirai’s security forces reflects army,” he said, visibly shaken by what disgruntlement with the The Zimbabwean leader had happened. “After the beatings I system” — officer with the enjoys wide support among was given a new uniform and told to police force’s internal the war veterans who act return to work. That was when I decided I wasn’t staying any minute intelligence agency. as a paramilitary force. longer.”

“It has always been noted that there are divided loyalties within the Mugabe himself has also had Zimbabwean defence forces, if you meetings with the security chiefs who “It has always been noted look at the actual role being played by sit on the Joint Operations Command, that there are divided [ex-ZIPRA] men who fought alongside and with ZANU-PF’s ruling politburo. loyalties within the . Their silence on issues Senior politburo officials including Zimbabwean defence of allegiance to the powers that be — in charge of the can mean a lot of things,” said the country’s intelligence services — are forces” — Zimbabwean lecturer. now said to have vowed to fight on in academic. a run-off presidential election, despite He noted that while former ZAPU the fact that no official poll results have politicians now in government had been released. aligned themselves publicly with the Military experts say it is rare for a regime, “we don’t get the same from As well as the regular forces, Mugabe soldier to formally resign, but many the ZIPRA generals now serving under enjoys wide support among militant simply desert and leave the country. Mugabe. Why?” veterans of the 1970s war of liberation, who form a de facto paramilitary Although the army is supposed to The political crisis appears to have reserve. have between 30,000 and 40,000 compounded the morale problems personnel, numbers have been falling facing the security forces. While security chiefs have declared as commissioned and non- their loyalty to the beleaguered commissioned officers abscond. The Members of Police Internal Service Mugabe, rank-and-file servicemen authorities have also scaled down Intelligence, PISI, told IWPR that they appear to have their own ideas. Like recruitment, citing inadequate had been monitoring political activity civilians, they have lost out from years resources. both in the police force and in other of economic chaos and security agencies, and morale had mismanagement. Many soldiers now While the security forces might look been low ever since the elections. spend their time scrounging to feed monolithic from the outside, the armed their families. forces contain more than one element “We all know about the situation,” said — the Mugabe loyalists from the one officer, who declined to be named. Military officers who spoke to IWPR Zimbabwe African National Liberation “We are equally suffering, and it is said they were not about to wield guns Army, ZANLU, the armed wing of known by many within PISI that and batons against unarmed civilians. ZANU during the liberation war, and sentiment across the security forces Such resistance to using force could those originally from the Zimbabwe reflects disgruntlement with the system.” hamper Mugabe’s efforts to deploy the People’s Revolutionary Army, ZIPRA, armed forces to perpetuate his hold on affiliated with the late Joshua Nkomo’s Yamikani Mwando is the pseudonym power. ZAPU movement. of a journalist in Zimbabwe.

4 ISSUE 28 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS POST-MUGABE AID PACKAGE PLANNED

Analysts consider how foreign aid should be administered in the event of Mugabe being ousted.

By Erica Beinlich in London

If opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai emerges as the eventual winner of the drawn out battle for the Zimbabwean presidency, international donors will be ready to pour aid into the economically-ruined country.

But some experts warn donors to proceed with caution, arguing that merely throwing money at the country

may do little to promote long-term Credit: Lazele economic stability. Traders selling basic commodities that are no longer to be found in shops in Harare. The black market has taken over as the economy continues its free-fall. “You’ve got to be very careful injecting Picture taken April 3. huge sums of money into an economy,” said Geoff Hill, a respected Zimbabwe analyst. Zimbabwean dollar and curb the Chris Maroleng, a researcher on hyperinflation that has soared to a rate Zimbabwe at the Institute for Security “It’s like giving a four-course dinner to of over 100,000 per cent; and provide Studies, said the international someone who hasn’t eaten for a month. humanitarian aid to ease poverty and community can assist farmers by It’s going to damage their stomach.” hunger and a land reform package to providing them with support, strengthen the once thriving farming equipment and training. The Movement for Democratic sector. Change, MDC, has already claimed “They could help the farmers get victory in the presidential poll of Boosting agriculture is a top priority, as access to things like fertiliser and March 29, which could mark the end international donors believe tools to help till the land, and more of the 28-year reign of ZANU-PF Zimbabwe’s current woes stem from importantly skills in order to enhance president Robert Mugabe. However, Mugabe’s ruinous land policies. the agricultural production capacity,” the official results may not be released he said. for more than a week, as the In 2000, the president seized farmland Zimbabwean Electoral Commission, from white farmers and distributed it in While it would be almost political ZEC, plans to hold recounts in 23 smaller tracts to ZANU-PF supporters, suicide for Tsvangarai and the MDC constituencies. without supplying them with the to completely reverse Mugabe’s training or equipment to keep up land reforms, the new leadership On April 14, the High Court turned production levels. will need to formulate a new land down an MDC petition to make the policy. results public immediately. The Agriculture, once a pillar of the opposition party argued that delaying Zimbabwean economy, rapidly “They don’t need to reverse everything their publication was allowing ZANU- declined, bringing the economy down Mugabe has done in terms of PF to widen its campaign of with it. To counter spiralling inflation, redistribution,” said Ricardo Gottschalk intimidation in rural areas. the government started mass- from the Institute of Development producing currency, forcing inflation to Studies. In the event of Mugabe being ousted, highs surpassing even those in the International Monetary Fund, IMF, Germany following the First World War. “Find a midway point that can meet and the , have already the demands and needs both of the agreed a three-pronged approach for Britain has reportedly agreed to lead commercial farmers and the poor. It’s rebuilding Zimbabwe. This includes the funding of land reform, because of difficult but we shouldn’t put things in plans to restore stability to the its former colonial ties with Zimbabwe. the terms of either/or.”

APRIL 2008 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

At this stage, it is not clear whether the Gottschalk suggested that imposing “Don’t bring in outsiders from those international aid planned for Zimbabwe rigid conditions on a new government countries giving the aid who are paid comes with strings attached. was unnecessary. ridiculous salaries. At the same time, don’t just give a job to someone Some experts have suggested that “I don’t think [the international because they’re Zimbabwean — but at imposing conditions could force community] will need to become least give them a chance to compete Zimbabwe to embrace much-needed heavy handed [with] the new for these jobs.” political, economic and governmental government to try to discipline it and reforms. Such reforms would also make it follow economic politics. It’s Perhaps the greatest issue standing in reassure investors that ventures in the quite obvious the government will be the way of the expats returning is the country are safe. Foreign investment is committed to restoring economic ban on dual citizenship. key to ensuring a sustainable economy stability,” he said. after foreign aid stops flowing. “People who have fought long and But many experts agree that foreign hard for US, British, or South African “If investment is to return to the country, aid will only take the country so far. citizenship and have surrendered their there needs to be conditions tied to the Zimbabwean nationality will not give aid to ensure the investments are “I think ultimately the most important [their new status] up easily,” said Hill. secure; that political and governmental thing for Zimbabweans is to create reforms are made,” said George Katito, sustainable development,” said He pointed to countries such as a Zimbabwe analyst at the South Maroleng. “But Zimbabweans must Rwanda, which has reformed similarly African Institute of International Affairs. have the largest say in how Zimbabwe rigid nationality laws to encourage ex- will be run, and more importantly, pats to return to the country, while “A major way to do this would be must play the biggest part in that maintaining their new citizenship. “It’s showing there’s a new commitment to recovery.” critically important to allow dual reversing poor government decisions nationality if you’re going to bring made in the past.” Central to the reconstruction effort will people back,” said Hill. be encouraging the sizeable diaspora However, Katito warned that attaching to return to the country. An estimated But he and other analysts believe it conditions to aid could be interpreted quarter of the 13.3 million population unlikely that Zimbabweans living by Zimbabweans as their government has left Zimbabwe in the last eight outside the country would return en bowing to international demands. A years. masse following a regime change, desire to preserve national sovereignty preferring to wait until the economy is deeply embedded in the psyche of Not only will their skills contribute to starts to turn around. “I think it’s going the country that won its independence development, the foreign currency to be a long and hard ride and that’s in 1980. they bring back could greatly boost why I think immigration won’t turn the country’s economy. around immediately,” said Hill. “It’s not “It could be misconstrued as going to be at all easy, and some international interference on issues “It’s important to bring some of the people will never come back.” that Zimbabweans think that their skilled people who have previously left government should have local Zimbabwe back to do these Erica Beinlich is an IWPR reporter in sovereignty over,” he said. [development] projects,” said Hill. London.

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

6 ISSUE 28