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Holistic Approaches to Societal Change: Why Do You Think You/We Can Make Improvements in Society?

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Holistic Approaches to Societal Change: Why Do You Think You/We Can Make Improvements in Society? Holistic Approaches to Societal Change: Why do You Think You/We can Make Improvements In Society? 11th International Conference on Innovation & Management ICIM 2014 November 18, 2014 Prof. Donald Huisingh Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment University of Tennessee Knoxville, Tennessee [email protected] SKYPE; huisinghdon Outline of this presentation What are the roles • Of history in guiding us to sustainable futures? • Of crises? • Of good examples? • Of alternative paradigms? • Of creativity? • Of ethical/spiritual values? • How can we integrate these elements into holistic and integrated approaches to achieve equitable, post-fossil carbon societies, which are truly sustainable?? Janus, the Roman God of gates and doors, beginnings and endings “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” Jared Diamond focused upon "societal” collapses due to environmental, climate change, hostile neighbors and trade partners in assessing their responses or lack of responses to Survival or Collapse.” He hoped we would learn from history! What can we learn from history? What can we learn from history? What can we learn? What can we learn from history? What can we learn? Can we learn? What are The Roles of Crises to Motivate People to Change; What Roles have Crises had as Motivators for Making Changes? • Carson’s “Silent Spring” – pesticides-(1962) • Ozone layer thinning- halogenated substances- (1974 -1985) • Bhopal – (1984) • Colburn’s “Our Stolen Future”- endocrine disrupters-(1995) • Three Mile Island (1979) Chernobyl (1986) Fukishima (2011) Nuclear reactor meltdowns- • Smog and Climate Change (1930 – Present) • http://www.worldwatch.org/brain/features/timeline /timeline.htm 危机 Crisis 危 Danger wei 机 Opportunity Ji 危机 Crisis Air Pollution Episodes • Many of the air pollution problems we have were chronic, long-term problems; • Sometimes we also have short-term smog episodes (Crises!!??) • Did the crises motivate us to make changes? Six of the Top Ten Environmental Crisis Incidents in 20th Century 1930.12 Belgium Meuse Valley fog Causes Combination of industrial air pollution and climatic conditions & pollutants: SO2, SO3, Particulates Sixty-Three human deaths in one week; main Consequence symptom was dyspnea (shortness of breath); s 1943 Los Angeles, USA Photochemical smog Causes Emissions of CH, NOx, CO from vehicles, emissions from oil refineries Consequence 75% of the citizens were seriously affected by respiratory s and eye infections, millions of trees died in the high mountains; $1.5 billion loss due to air pollution 1952.12.5-9 London, UK Great Smog Causes CO2, CO, SO2, TSP emissions from coal burning; vehicle exhaust—particularly from diesel-fuelled buses; & heavily polluted air from continental Europe Consequences Four thousand human deaths in four days; symptoms: bronchitis, acute respiratory failure, heart failure, Great Smog of China January-February 2013 Tian ‘an Men Square The Oriental Pearl TV Tower Zibo City Shandong University The Air Quality Index of 600 AQI(Air Quality Index) Four Cities in China Shanghai 500 Zibo Beijing 400 Hong Kong 300 200 100 75 transition 1 50 transition 2 37.5 transition 3 25 target 0 01-10-2012 01-11-2012 01-12-2012 01-01-2013 01-02-2013 01-03-2013 01-04-2013 Data Source: EPA The Chinese Government is encouraging its citizen’s involvement in SD with the theme: “Cherish the Earth’s Resources: Change the Developmental Model” Janus, the Roman God of gates and doors, beginnings and endings 2 Concentration of carbon dioxide in the Antarctic ice 310 290 270 250 230 210 concentration concentration (PPMs) 190 170 150 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Time in years before the present Methane concentration in the ice in Antarctica 800 750 700 PPMs) 650 3 600 550 500 450 400 Concentration Concentration of methane 350 300 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Time in years before the present Atmospheric temperature variations as detected from the ice in Antarctica 4 2 C) 0 ° -2 -4 -6 -8 Differences Differences in temperature ( -10 -12 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Time in years before the present Ranges and concentrations during 450,000 years • Carbon dioxide concentration range= (185 – 295 PPM) (2004 380 PPM) Projected by 2050 to be between 450 & 750 PPM! • Methane concentration range = (340 -760 PPB) (2004 1700 PPB) Projected by 2050??? • Average temperature range during this period = 10° C; how much higher will it be in the next 100 – 300 years is a big question?? Concentration en PPMs 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 Ene-75 The South Pole South The at and Canada Colorado, in measured as Dioxide Carbon of Concentration Ene-76 Dic-76 Dic-77 Ene-79 Ene-80 Dic-80 Dic-81 Ene-83 2 Ene-84 Dic-84 Pole South Dic-85 Ene-87 Ene-88 Dic-88 Colorado Dic-89 Ene-91 Ene-92 Dic-92 Canada Dic-93 Ene-95 Ene-96 Dic-96 Dic-97 Ene-99 Ene-00 Dic-00 Dic-01 Ene-03 Ene-04 Increase in Carbon Dioxide Concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii --------------------------------------------------- 1880 285 ppm (Est.) 1958 315 ppm 2012 393 ppm Increase of 108 ppm in 132 years = .82 ppm/yr. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration 2012: 393 ppm Annual Mean Growth Rate (ppm y-1) 2010 2.37 (3x) 2009 1.63 2008 1.81 2007 2.11 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 2006 1.83 1 2005 2.39 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y 2004 1.58 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2003 2.20 2002 2.40 (decadal (decadal means) -1 2000 - 2010: 1.9 ppm y Annual Growth Annual Growth Rates Data Source: Thomas Conway, 2011, NOAA/ESRL + Scripts Institution News, May 12, 2013 • 400 PPM • Which is the Carbon highest it has Dioxide! been in the last • Mauna Loa, Hawaii • two million years! What is the net quantity of carbon dioxide that is being added each day to the atmosphere, globally? Estimates vary from 100,000,000 to more than 1,000,000,000 tons per day! Increasing Average Temperatures The rate of increase on land is accelerating. Warming for the entire 20th century clocks in at Drought Index U.S. August 2012 n 285, 400, 350 PPM Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere The Earth is Shrinking!!! • Desserts are spreading; o China is losing productive land to deserts at an accelerating rate • During 1950 – 1975 China lost 1,560 sq. km/yr. • By 2000 they lost 2,480 sq. km/yr o In recent years Afghanistan lost 100 villages and Iran lost 124 villages due to advancing desserts; Half of the world’s forests have been destroyed by human activity. Annually, 9 million hectares of forests are being cut; this is an area equal to the size of Portugal We are now in a period of mass species extinction. 104 species become extinct every day. We must find solutions for these problems? Global Income and Economic Disparities In Distribution of World Income 2nd Richest 20% 3rd Richest Richest 20% 20% 4th Richest Poorest 20% 20% Source: Agenda for Change, Center for our Common Future. 1989 figures from UNDP Over 1.5 billion (25%) of the world’s population is impoverished and malnourished. Vision Decline of the Middle Class • Between 1945 and 1973, productivity of American workers grew 96% and they received a 94% increase in wages • Between 1973 and 2011 , the middle class has decline. While American workers’ productivity grew by 80%, and they only received a 10% increase in wages. 危机 Crisis 危 Danger wei 机 Opportunity Ji The Earth is Shrinking!!! • The Human Population continues to increase: 70,000,000+ per year! o From, “The Earth is Shrinking: Advancing deserts and Rising Seas Squeezing Civilization,” by Lester Brown http://www.earthpolicy.org/updates/2006/update61.htm Interconnectedness of Population, Affluence & Technology Number of Environmental Number units degradation Environmental of of and pollution impact People X resources X per unit of = of (P) used per resource Population person (A) used (T) (I) Sustainable Development? Sustainable Development?Diamond of Sustainability POPULATION LIFESTYLE ENVIRONMENT HEALTH ENERGY DEMOCRACY HUMAN RIGHTS NATURAL PARTICIPATION RESOURCES Social issues Employment FOOD: LAND/WATER Poverty/Ethics ECONOMY POLITICS TECHNOLOGY © Bo Kjellén DEVELOPMENT POLICIES Buildings BUILT Equipment CAPITAL Information Infrastructure Human made Material Skills Family SOCIAL Health Neighbours Community Abilities CAPITAL Companies Education Government People Connections Food Sunlight Fisheries Water Rainbows NATURAL Fertile Soil Metals Mountains CAPITAL Water Filtration Wood Seashores CO2 Oxygen Energy Bird Songs Natural Resources Ecosystem Services Beauty of Nature Trans Generational Perspectives #@!?, #@!?, #@!?, #@!?, #@!?, #@!?, Problem Multipliers vs. Solution Multipliers What are The Roles of Good Examples to Motivate People to Change; Historical Background of the Prevention Approach of Environmental Protection • It is a very long Journey from ‘Dilution is the Solution to Pollution’ • To ‘Prevention is the Solution to Sustainable Regional Development’ Some of the Preventive Environmental Protection Initiatives • Agenda 21; • The Earth Charter; • Millennium Development Goals • The Precautionary Principle; • The Natural Step Principles; • The Melbourne Principles; • The Bellagio Principles • Pollution Prevention Pays • Cleaner Production/Leaner Production/Greener Production • Industrial Ecology/Circular Economy • Sustainable Consumption and Production • The Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (EfSD) 2005 – 2014; • The Equator Principles for Sustainable Finance Historical Background of the Prevention Approach of Environmental Protection • In 1975, J. 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