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Survival in Metropolitan-Area Nuclear

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Survival in Metropolitan-Area Nuclear feedback is introduced in the form of an infrared light signal. A subminiature tungsten bulb acting as an electro-optical transducer re-introduces into the window of the photo transistor an optical signal proportional to the electrical signal at the output of the amplifier. Base bias for the photo transistor is supplied by the DC component of the light from the lamp, which is run at a steady 12-ma current. The photofeed back version of the pyrometer gives greater precision as well as greater calibra­ tion stability. The voltage calibration is reproduc­ ible to better than 0.1 %, giving a temperature Recording pyrometer designed for use by the Flight that is reproducible to better than ± 1 °C at 1000° Research Group. K and ±4°C at 20000K. Even greater precision could be achieved by redesigning for a larger surface temperature in a rocket motor. By mount­ amount of feedback, but stability of the feedback ing the pyrometer directly to the rocket-nozzle lamp characteristics may impose a practical limit. wall (a capability made possible by its small The threshold temperature of this version is size and weight), optical alignment errors due to ~8400K . thermal expansion can be avoided. An optical The most important advantage of the feedback pyrometer is preferable to a thermocouple in this version of the pyrometer, as previously noted, is application since it has no thermal lag or lead that after an initial absolute calibration, it needs conduction loss. no further optical calibration and is therefore Other groups in the Laboratory are finding ready for field use under any conditions. Another uses for the transistorized pyrometer. A conven­ advantage is that feedback improves the linearity iently sized unit using the same basic optical and of the photo transistor response. electronic design, which has been adapted by J. An accompanying figure shows how the pyrome­ M. Akridge for use by the Flight Research Group, ter is being used currently to measure throat- is illustrated. SURVIVAL etropC)litan-~rea clear Attacks On May 25, 1961, in his message to ing itself from the residual radioac­ when quite remote from the actual Congress on "Urgent National tivity ("fallout") that would result ground zero of a large-yield thermo­ Needs," the President called for a new from a nuclear attack. nuclear detonation. They can pro­ and revitalized · civil defense program It is agreed * that "fallout shelters" vide all the immediate protection that to protect the civilian population of will provide useful protection only is required for a large segment of the the United States from the hazards of population (20 million rural inhabi- nuclear war. Since that time, many • The author acknowledges tha t the factual stitu te a specific set of recommenda tions. pamphlets, books, and articles have d a ta upon which this study is based were derived from U . S. Government a nd other but are a n aggregation of facts from which appeared urging the population to publica tions listed at the conclusion of this the reader m ay deter mine his own course of begih providing the means for shelter- paper. The sta tements herein do not con- action . 18 APL T echnical Digest tants plus the residents of small cities sents a gamble that there will be no sheltered population and of expected and towns) from nearly any form of nuclear war, that if cities are targets survivors among a sheltered popu­ nuclear attack, and for nearly all of in a nuclear war, adequate shelter is lation. the population, urban and rural, impossible, or that if successful shelter from some likely attacks (on SAC bases is possible in a target city during a Lethal Characteristics of Ther­ or missile launching sites, for exam­ nuclear strike, the post-attack world Illonuclear Explosions ple). However, the appeal of the will not be worth living in. The un­ The explosion of a thermon uclear fallout shelter alone understandably certainties in these conclusions are weapon near the surface of the earth vanishes for the 40 million residents of huge and the stakes in the wager im­ releases a tremendous amount of our 60 largest cities when they con­ mense : survival for the individual, his energy in a number of ways potentially sider the cities themselves as potential family, his community, and his nation. lethal to a city and its inhabitants. targets. Despite many seemingly This paper considers the feasibility The weapon explodes with a brilliant persuasive arguments to the contrary, of providing adequate shelter within flash of light, and the air in the im­ there is little reassurance for city an urban area that is the scene of a mediate vicinity of the explosion is dwellers in predictions that an enemy direct attack. An estimate is made of heated very rapidly to extremely high may be bold enough to strike remote the immediate lethal effects of such temperatures. A "fireball," which may parts of our country but will be too an attack. Shelter design criteria, as persist for more than a minute, is timid to assault our cities. influenced by the environment thus formed. During the period of time Neglect of adequate shelter prepara­ created, are developed. Comparison w hen the major part of the thermal tions by the urban population repre- is made of casualties among an un- energy is being emitted, the apparent A MILES FROM GROUND ZERO AT WHICH VARIOUS STRUCTURES WILL BE DESTROY ED BY BLAST o 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 150 PSI 100 PSI-ALL ABOV E- GROUND STRUCTURES 20 PSI-MASSIVE MULTISTORIED OFFICE BUILDINGS-95,,/o HUMAN MORTALITY 5 PSI -APARTM ENT BUILDINGS- 15,,/o HUMAN MORTALITY V) 3 PSI-WOOD OR BRICK HOUSES-THRESHOLD OF HUMAN MORTALITY f- U 1.8 PSI - MODERATE DAMAGE TO HOUSES W 1 1 l.L ~......,r----'r--; l.L W MT tn 10 MT « ;i 50 MT ~ 50 MT U t±: 10 MT l.L W I MT ....J« L 1'8 ca l/cm2- CRUMPLED NEWSPAPERS- 2nd-D EG REE BURN S (HUMAN) ~ 10 ca l/cm 2-DRY ROTTED WOOD-GRASS-3rd-DEGREE BURNS (HUMAN) I 2 f- 15 cal/cm -TREE LEAVES 20 ca l/cm 2-CARDBOARD BOXES-BURLAP 25 cal/cm 2- W EATHERED WOOD SIDING 35 ca l/cm 2- UPHOLSTERY-WOOL RUGS cal/cm 2-ALL COMBUSTIBLES o 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 MILES FROM GROUND ZERO AT WHICH VARIOUS MATERIALS WILL BE IGNITED BY THERMAL RADIATION C 10 5 r-------r--r-.~-.----r----------r--------~ 100 r-------~~--~~~--------~ V) V)_ ~ ] 80 t----------r ....JW ~ u ~O 10 4 ~--------~----~--~~--------~--------_1 u Qi ~o Vi -E= 60 t-----------, Z -z O~ <Q U~ 40 t--------.., O~ 10 3 ~---------+--~----~~--~~---+--------~ f-O 3J0 « 0<: 3~ 20 z 10 2 ~ ______~~ ______~ ____~ __~ ~ ______~ o I~ 2~ 3~ 200 400 600 800 DISTANCE FROM GROUND ZERO (miles) ACUTE RADIATION DOSE (r) Fig. I-Lethal effects of nuclear weapons: (A) thermal and blast effects on structures and materials at various radii; (B) radii of radiation effects for 1-, 10-, and 50-MT yields; (C) physiological effects of radiation for increasing doses. }v/ay - June 1963 19 surface temperature of the fireball TABLE I reaches a maximum of about NUCLEAR ATTACK PATTERNS STUDIED FOR THE WASHINGTON, D. C. AREA 15,000°F. The almost instantaneous Number and Total Yield oj burst of nuclear radiation issuing from Case Aim Point Number Yield oj Bombs Attack (megato ns) the detonation point is followed by an intense blast wave that generates I at 50 MT City center 50 a violent wind. I II I a t 10 MT City center 10 When the burst is close to the sur­ III 3 at 10 MT Chosen to m a ximize area of 5-psi 30 face of the earth, a crater is formed. coverage The soil and/ or rock structure adja­ IV I at 10 MT Chosen to maximize area of 5-psi 15 a nd coverage cent to the crater is ruptured or per­ 5 at I MT manently deformed by the intense blast. The shock transmitted through shelter must be immediately available iently available and were not included the earth beyond this deformed area for most of those who will survive. in the analysis.) They are indicative is relatively weak, so damage by the t of the nighttime or residence popula­ direct ground shock to buried struc­ The Dhnensions of Destruction tion and do not reflect the work-day tures outside this zone will be small. in an Urban Area distribution. However, they are the The vaporized mixture of radioactive appropriate figures since they refer to debris from the bomb and the surface In order to maintain a perspective population distribution under the material from the crater is lifted high in this grim assessment, it is important only conditions in which passive into the sky by the vertical winds to understand that the destruction will defense will be effective. We presume generated by the explosion. Upon not be as uniformly distributed as the that the preparation of shelters will cooling, this mixture solidifies in small following generalized discussion por­ have predisposed their owners to be particles, thereby trapping some of trays. In particular, the enemy tactics in a position to use them should the radioactive debris. The contami­ of attack, and the ensuing location, desperate need arise. Reconsideration nated material may return rapidly to yield, and number of bomb detona­ of the lethality of the weapons should earth in the form of heavy particles tions, while reasonable in terms of be sufficient encouragement to re­ with much radioactive contamina­ future capability, are completely main in or very near the shelters if tion.
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