A Study in Longevity

darien analytics Financial market analysis MARCH 2012 ISSUE 5 special report An Egyptian demonstrator in Tahrir Square holds up a picture of former President Gamal Abd al-Nasser Rulers or Heads of State? In the Middle East, it is usually obvious Middle East Rulers: who the rulers are even though they carry different titles: for example, King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, Sultan Qaboos of Oman, and President Bouteflika of Algeria. In all three a study in longevity of those countries there are Parliamentary bodies elected by some degree of suffrage and exercising certain levels of legislative When Ali Abdullah Saleh left Yemen for medical treatment in the U.S. in January, he became authority – but it is clear who wields the the fourth Arab leader to fall as a result of the popular uprisings in the region that began real power. in 2011. Saleh’s return from the U.S. and his formal handing over of the Presidency at a It’s not always clear. ceremony in Sana’a on 25 February couldn’t disguise the fact that he had been ousted as a result of popular protests and a loss of support from significant sections of the armed forces. The Lebanese head of state, President Michel Suleiman, has powers, both formal Saleh’s fall had been preceded by that of Mo’ammer Ghaddafi, who began losing control and informal. Like his predecessor, Emile of Libya in mid-2011 and was killed in October; Hosni Mubarak, who resigned as President Lahoud, he was previously head of the of Egypt in February; and Zeine el-Abeddine Ben Ali, who resigned as President of Tunisia army, and he is one of the key figures in January. in the Maronite community. Yet read the Lebanese press, and it is Prime Minister Few will find it coincidental that these four were among the longest standing rulers in the Mikati and his fellow Parliamentarians who region: Ghaddafi since 1969, Saleh since 1978, Mubarak since 1981 and Ben Ali since 1987. dominate political debates. Outside the UAE, only Sultan Qaboos of Oman is in the same league – he came to power in Similarly, in Iraq, President Jalal Talabani 1970. Other than Qaboos, the longest standing ruler in the region outside the UAE is Sheikh is the head of state, not Prime Minister Hamad of Qatar, who has ruled since 1995. Maliki, but the circles of power ripple more forcefully from Maliki’s office than from Two of the seven Emirates that comprise the U.A.E. boast rulers who took power in the 1970s Talabani’s. – Sultan Al Qassimi has ruled Sharjah since 1972 and Hamad Al Sharqi has ruled Fujeirah Kuwait presents a more muddled picture. since 1974. The ruler of Ajman took power in 1981. The Kuwaiti parliament – elected by something close to universal suffrage Long-standing rulers have not always been bad rulers – manages to constrain the activities of Emir Sabah al-Ahmed on many important Most people would agree that it cannot be good for a country to have one person in charge matters, such as the exploitation of the for multiple decades. (Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister of Great Britain for 11½ years country’s oil and gas deposits. Yet, Emirs and Tony Blair for ten; Bertie Ahern served as Taoiseach of Ireland for 11: from a European can – and do – dissolve the Parliament point of view, all are deemed to have served long terms.) Yet King Hussain of Jordan reigned when an impasse is reached. for 46 ½ years (1952–1999) and he is considered one of the outstanding rulers of the modern This Darien Special Report analyses Middle Middle East. Sultan Qaboos is generally viewed as having done a good job. Eastern “Rulers” rather than “Heads of State”, and for that reason we identify In the UAE, both Zayed bin Sultan of Abu Dhabi (ruled 1966–2004) and Rashid bin Saeed Mikati in Lebanon and Maliki in Iraq. of Dubai (ruled 1958–2000) are still revered for the roles which they played steering their emirates into the modern era. Prior to the events of 2011, only the Parliaments in Lebanon, Iraq and Kuwait The graphic on the next page charts the reigns of Middle East rulers and their recent predecessors. could claim to have much more than The UAE is given a separate table so as to track the leaders of all seven of the Emirates. decorative value within their political systems (although legislative elections in Palestine had profound consequences in Many countries have known only one or two rulers for more than 50 years 2006 – see page 4). Perhaps more striking than the long tenures of current or recent rulers is the number of Morocco will be interesting to watch – the cases where no more than two or three rulers have been in power since the middle of the last King is not going to give up control of his century or even earlier. country, but constitutional changes agreed last year were not insignificant. n darien analytics a study in longevity: middle east leaders in power on 1 January 2011, and their predecessors infographic©2012 JORDAN MOROCCO TUNISIA LEBANON SYRIA KUWAIT BAHRAIN UNITED ARAB emirates King Abdullah King Mohammed VI President Zeine Prime Minister Najib Bashar al-Asad Sabah al-Ahmed King Hamad bin Isa Came to power in 1999 SHARJAH Came to power in 1999 el-Abedine Ben Ali Mikati Came to power in 2000 Came to power in 2006 Came to power in 1999 Sultan bin Mohammed Ruled 1987–2011 Came to power after the natural Assumed power after the natural Came to power in 2011 Assumed power after the natural Sabah al-Ahmed became Emir after Assumed power after the natural Al Qasimi death of his father King Hussain, the abdication due to illness of death of his father Hassan II, who Overthrew his predecessor, Habib Became Prime Minister after the death of his father Hafiz al-Asad, death of his father Sheikh Isa bin had ruled since 1952. distant cousin Saad. He had been Came to power in 1972 had ruled since 1961. Bourguiba, who had ruled since fall of Saad Hariri’s government in who had ruled since 1970. Salman, who had ruled since 1961. Hussain succeeded his father, playing a leading role in running the Came to power after the 1957 (shortly after independence 2011. Saad was Prime Minister Isa succeeded his father, Salman Hassan II’s father had ruled Talal, who ruled for a year after Hafiz took power following a series country for many years before his assassination of his brother, Khalid from France), in a bloodless coup. from 2009–2011. Saad was bin Hamad who had ruled since since 1927, except for a period the assassination of his father, of short-lived administrations. accession. Saad reigned for only a bin Mohammed who had ruled since Ben Ali resigned the Presidency preceded by Fouad Siniora who 1942. of French-imposed exile from Abdullah, who had ruled since few days before abdicating. 1965, following the removal of his in January 2010 in the face of took over shortly after the 1953-55. the creation of the Protectorate cousin Saqr bin Sultan. It was an mounting protests against his rule. assassination of Rafik Hariri in Saad came to power following the following the first world war. (Talal attempted coup by Saqr bin Sultan He fled to Saudi Arabia. 2005. Rafik had been Prime death of Jabir, half brother of the had been forced to abdicate for which led to the assassination of Minister from 1992–1998 and current Emir, who had ruled heath reasons.) since 1977. Khalid bin Mohammed. Saqr had from 2000–2004. ruled since 1951. FUJAIRAH LIBYA Hamad bin Mohammed MOROCCO Al Sharqi Mo’ammer Ghaddafi Came to power in 1974 Ruled 1969–2011 Assumed power in 1974 after Came to power in a military coup TUNISIA the natural death of his father. overthrowing King Idris, who had Mohammed bin Hamad had ruled ruled Libya since its foundation as since 1942. a sovereign state in 1951. Idris had SYRIA influence in significant parts of what ALGERIA AJMAN is now called Libya from around LEBANON Hamaid bin Rashid 1920, though he was exiled in JORDAN IRAQ 1922 by the Italian colonial powers. Al Nu’aimi Ghaddafi was killed in October LIBYA Came to power in 1981 2011, but he had lost control of Assumed power in 1981 after the much of Libya some months earlier. KUWAIT natural death of his father, Rashid EGYPT BAHRAIN bin Humaid had ruled since 1928. SAUDI QATAR ABU DHABI ARABIA Khalifa bin Zayed U.A.E. Al Nayyan Came to power in 2004 ALGERIA OMAN Assumed power after the natural President Abdelaziz death of his father. Zayed bin Sultan had ruled since 1966. Zayed Bouteflika overthrew Shakhbut bin Sultan who Came to power in 1999 had ruled since 1928. Bouteflika succeeded General IRAQ YEMEN Zeroual who had ruled since 1994 Prime Minister Nouri DUBAI The current regime dates to al-Maliki EGYPT Mohammed bin Rashid independence from France in Came to power in 2006 President Hosni Mubarak Al Maktoum 1962, although the Presidency was Came to power in 2006 suspended by the army during part Previously Ibrhaim al-Jaafari was Ruled from 1981–2011 of the civil war in 1990s. Prime Minister for a year, following As Vice President, Hosni Mubarak Assumed power after the natural elections in January 2005. took power in line with the death of his brother Maktoum bin QATAR Rashid who had ruled since 1990. Saddam Husain was President from constitution after the assassination SAUDI ARABIA YEMEN OMAN 1979 until 2003 but held effective of his predecessor Anwar Sadat, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa The father of Mohammed and President Ali Abdullah Sultan Qaboos bin Said Maktoum was Rashid bin Saeed power for a few years before 1979.

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