Statistics GCSE

GCSE

CCEA GCSE Specimen Assessment Materials for Statistics

For first teaching from September 2017 For first assessment in Summer 2018 For first award in Summer 2019 Subject Code: 2260

Foreword

CCEA has developed new specifications which comply with criteria for GCSE qualifications. The specimen assessment materials accompanying new specifications are provided to give centres guidance on the structure and character of the planned assessments in advance of the first assessment. It is intended that the specimen assessment materials contained in this booklet will help teachers and students to understand, as fully as possible, the markers’ expectations of candidates’ responses to the types of tasks and questions set at GCSE level. These specimen assessment materials should be used in conjunction with CCEA’s GCSE Statistics specification.

GCSE Statistics Specimen Assessment Materials

Contents

Specimen Papers 3

Unit 1: Foundation Tier 3 Unit 1: Higher Tier 27 Unit 2: Foundation Tier 51 Unit 2: Higher Tier 73 Pre-Release Materials 95

Mark Schemes 165

General Marking Instructions 167 Unit 1: Foundation Tier 169 Unit 1: Higher Tier 177 Unit 2: Foundation Tier 185 Unit 2: Higher Tier 191 Subject Code 2260 QAN 603/1384/5

You may download further copies of this publication from www.ccea.org.uk SPECIMEN PAPERS

Centre Number

Candidate Number

General Certificate of Secondary Education 2018 Statistics

Unit 1

Foundation Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN PAPER

TIME 1 hour 30 minutes.

For Examiner’s INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES use only Write your Centre Number and Candidate Number in the spaces Question Marks provided at the top of this page. Number Write your answers in the spaces provided in the question paper. 1 Answer all twelve questions. 2 Any working should be clearly shown in the spaces provided as marks may be awarded for partially correct solutions. 3 You may use a calculator for this paper. 4 5 INFORMATION FOR CANDIDATES 6 The total mark for this paper is 80. 7 Figures in brackets printed down the right-hand side of pages indicate 8 the marks awarded to each question or part question. 9 You should have a calculator, ruler, compass and protractor. There is no formula sheet for this examination. 10 11 12

Total Marks

3 Answer all questions Examiner Only Marks Re-mark 1 A market researcher wants to find out how many times each week customers visit a particular supermarket. He plans to use a questionnaire to interview customers entering the supermarket. A sample question from the questionnaire is

‛How many times per week do you visit this supermarket?’

0 1 2-3 5-6 6-8

(a) Give two reasons why this is not a suitable question.

Reason 1

Reason 2

[2]

(b) What type of data is the market researcher collecting?

Tick the correct box. Give a reason for your answer.

Primary Secondary

Reason

[1]

Explain what is meant by convenience sampling.

[1]

4 2 At the Wimbledon tennis tournament all of the men’s tennis matches have Examiner Only three, four or five sets. Marks Re-mark The partly completed table below shows the number of sets in matches in the first three rounds in 2016.

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Total 3-set matches 4-set matches 17 8 36 5-set matches 16 1 21 Total 64 31 16 111 © Wimbledon Event Statistics http://wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/extrastats/index.html

(a) Complete the missing values in the table.

[3]

(b) A tennis match from the first three rounds is chosen at random. Find the probability that it is:

(i) a 4 set match;

Answer ______[1]

(ii) a Round 3 match with more than 3 sets.

Answer ______[1]

5 3 A television channel shows four types of programmes: Comedy (C), Sport Examiner Only (S), Drama (D) and Nature (N). Marks Re-mark The bar chart represents the percentage of time the television channel showed the different types of programmes.

100% C 90% C 80% 70% S 60% S 50% 40% D Percentage of Time 30% D 20% N 10% N 0% Monday Tuesday Wednesday Day of Week (a) What type of programme was shown for the largest percentage of time on Monday?

Answer ______[1]

(b) Complete the table below to show the percentage of time each type of programme was shown on Tuesday.

Type of programme Percentage of time Comedy Sport Drama Nature [2]

On Wednesday, Nature programmes were shown for 15% of the time and Drama programmes were shown for 25% of the time. Comedy and Sport programmes were both shown for the same percentage of time.

[2] 6 (d) The television channel showed programmes for the same length of Examiner Only time every day. Marks Re-mark

Here are two statements about the TV programmes shown. Tick the box for each statement to show if it is true or false.

Give reasons for your answers.

Statement 1: Wednesday was the day on which sport was shown for the least amount of time.

True False [1] Reason

[1]

Statement 2: On each day, comedy programmes were shown for less time than any of the other types of programmes.

True False [1] Reason

[1]

7 4 UK adults were asked how often they used the internet in the last Examiner Only 3 months. Marks Re-mark The graph below shows some of the results for the years 2006 – 2016.

(a) Using the graph, make two statements about trends in internet use during the period 2006 – 2016.

Statement 1

[1]

Statement 2

[1]

8 (b) In 2016 it is estimated that there are 65 million people living in the Examiner Only UK. Marks Re-mark

Shona says:

The graph in part (a) must be wrong as the values for 2016 do not add up to 65 million.

Is Shona’s statement correct? Tick a box.

Yes No [1]

Give a reason for your answer

Reason

[1]

State one variable about which she might collect data.

Answer [1]

9 5 A doctor is monitoring the spread of an infectious disease in a region. Examiner Only The doctor divided the region into squares and recorded the number of Marks Re-mark people who have caught the disease in the three weeks after the first case was recorded. He produced the diagram below to show the results.

(a) (i) What is the name of this type of diagram? Circle the correct answer.

Pictogram Population pyramid Choropleth map Boxplot

[1]

(ii) The key shows that the doctor has grouped the data into intervals.

Why is it an advantage to group the data?

[1]

(iii) How many squares have 31-40 people who have caught the disease?

Answer [1]

10 (b) One of the squares contains the first person to catch the disease. Examiner Only Suggest which square this might be. Marks Re-mark

Row Number: Column letter: [1]

Give a reason for your answer.

Reason

[1]

11 6 Jack asks the 20 students in his class to measure, to the nearest minute, Examiner Only how long it takes them to travel to school on a particular day. The Marks Re-mark responses were:

27 14 39 8 17 20 15 9 14 14 28 3 6 19 11 25 21 13 29 55

(a) Jack thinks that three of the students travelled to school together.

Explain why he might think this from looking at the data. Reason

[1]

(b) Show the data in an ordered stem and leaf diagram.

Rough Work

Final Answer

Key ….……. represents …… minutes [4]

12 Examiner Only (c) For these data Marks Re-mark

(i) calculate the range

[1] (ii) find the median

[2]

(d) Jack says that the data are negatively skewed.

Is he correct? Explain your answer.

Answer

Reason

[1]

(e) The student who took 55 minutes to travel to school was delayed. Her usual journey time is 41 minutes.

What effect will changing the time from 55 minutes to 41 minutes have on the mean and median travel times?

Tick the correct options.

(i) The median will

Increase Decrease Stay the same [1]

(ii) The mean will

Increase Decrease Stay the same [1]

13 7 In the 2016 Olympic games, Italy won 28 medals: Examiner Only Marks Re-mark Gold Silver Gold Bronze Gold Silver Silver Bronze Silver Silver Silver Bronze Gold Bronze Gold Gold Bronze Gold Silver Silver Bronze Silver Bronze Gold Silver Silver Bronze Silver [Correct at 26/08/16] (a) Complete the columns in the tally chart:

Medal colour Tally Frequency Gold Silver Bronze [3]

(b) The pie chart represents the number of gold medals won by the top 5 countries in the 2016 Olympic games.

(i) Which one of the statements can you decide is true by using the pie chart? Tick the correct one.

Statement 1: The USA won approximately one-third of all of the gold medals available at the 2016 Olympic games.

Statement 2: Great Britain & Northern Ireland won approximately the same number of gold medals as China.

Statement 3: Russia won fewer medals than Germany. [1]

14 (ii) Explain why you cannot decide that the other two statements are Examiner Only true from the pie chart. Give one reason for each statement. Marks Re-mark

Statement

Reason

[1]

Statement

Reason

[1]

(c) Scott thinks that it would be useful to draw a pie chart to show the number of gold medals won by each of the 206 countries competing in the 2016 Olympic games.

Explain why Scott is not correct.

Reason

[1]

15 8 Noah records the time in minutes that he spends on his statistics homework Examiner Only each week for 40 weeks. He shows the results in a cumulative frequency Marks Re-mark graph shown below.

Cumulative Frequency

2 3 5

Number of minutes

Noah never takes less than 10 minutes or more than 60 minutes to complete his statistics homework during the 40 weeks.

(a) Using the cumulative frequency graph, estimate:

(i) The median number of minutes Noah spends on his statistics homework

Answer minutes [1]

(ii) The interquartile range of the number of minutes Noah spends on his statistics homework

Answer minutes [2]

16 (b) Aoife also records the number of minutes she spends on her statistics Examiner Only homework for the same 40 week period. She represents her results in Marks Re-mark the boxplot below.

On the same diagram draw a boxplot to represent the number of minutes Noah spent on his statistics homework.

2 3 5 7

Number of minutes [2] (c) Compare the times taken by Noah and Aoife to complete statistics homework.

Comparison 1

[1]

Comparison 2

[1]

17 9 As part of a project, a student wants to collect information from a sample Examiner Only of visitors to a town. Marks Re-mark

(a) Give one reason why it is not possible for the student to choose a random sample in this situation.

Reason

[1]

(b) The student considers gathering information from all visitors she meets coming out of the town bus station between 1 pm and 3 pm one Wednesday afternoon.

Give one advantage and one disadvantage of this method.

Advantage

[1]

Disadvantage

[1]

18 (c) The student wants to know how far visitors have travelled to the town. Examiner Only Two possible methods to get this information are shown below. Marks Re-mark

Method A Method B Ask each visitor how far he/she Ask each visitor where he/she is has travelled to get to the town. from and use a computer to work out the distance later.

Which method is likely to give more accurate answers? Give a reason for your answer.

Method A Method B [1]

Reason

[1]

(d) What kind of data is the distance travelled? Circle all the words that describe this type of data.

Quantitative Qualitative Discrete

Continuous Categorical Bivariate [2]

19 10 A charity asks its supporters for a donation of money. A random sample of Examiner Only 50 donations is shown in the frequency table below. Marks Re-mark

Amount (£) 2 5 10 20 25 50 Frequency 8 12 14 11 4 1

(a) Write down the modal donation.

Answer £ ______[1]

(b) Work out the mean donation.

Answer £ ______[2]

(d) The next time the charity asks for donations, it wants to use a message like the one below.

Most people give at least £...

Based on the data in the random sample, what is the largest amount of money that they could put in the message? Circle the amount from the options below.

£2 £5 £10 £20 £25 £50 [1]

20 11 In Northern Ireland, a census of the population takes place every 10 years. Examiner Only The last census was in 2011. Numbers in this question are rounded to the Marks Re-mark nearest hundred.

The number of 10 year olds living in Northern Ireland in 2011 was 22100. Of these, 3000 lived in Belfast.

(a) A 10 year old living in Northern Ireland in 2011 is chosen at random.

What is the probability the 10 year old lived in Belfast? Give your answer to 2 decimal places.

Answer [2]

(b) The Venn diagram below represents the 10 year olds in Northern Ireland in 2011.

10 year old Lives in boys Belfast R S

(i) The region marked R represents

Ten year old boys who live in Belfast

Write down in words what is represented by the regions marked:

S [1]

T [1]

21 (ii) The number of 10 year old boys living in Northern Ireland in 2011 Examiner Only was 11300. Of these, 1500 lived in Belfast. Marks Re-mark

Fill in the four missing numbers in this Venn diagram.

10 year old Lives in boys Belfast ......

[2]

22 12 A sample of eight employers recorded the average hourly wage of all their Examiner Only employees and the percentage of female employees. Marks Re-mark The data are shown in the table below.

Percentage of 25 29 35 47 48 92 38 24 female employees Average wage 9.21 9.72 7.28 8.50 9.92 6.80 9.50 8.25 (£/hour)

A scatter diagram showing the data points for the first six employers is given below.

(£/hour) 7 erage wage Av 6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Female employees

(a) Plot the points for the last two employers. [2]

(b) (i) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient for the data.

Answer ______[2]

(ii) Which type of correlation does your answer to (i) show? Circle the answer.

Strong positive Positive No correlation

Negative Strong negative [1]

23 (c) One of the points on the scatter diagram appears to be an outlier. Examiner Only Circle it. [1] Marks Re-mark

When the outlier is removed, the product moment correlation coefficient changes to 0.168

(d) Tony claims that the data shows that employers with higher percentages of female employees have lower average wages.

Give two reasons why his claim may not be correct.

Reason 1

[1]

Reason 2

[1]

24 THIS IS THE END OF THE QUESTION PAPER

25 BLANK PAGE

26 Centre Number

Candidate Number

General Certificate of Secondary Education 2018 Statistics

Unit 1

Higher Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN PAPER

TIME 2 hours.

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES Write your Centre Number and Candidate Number in the spaces For Examiner’s use only provided at the top of this page. Question Marks Write your answers in the spaces provided in the question paper. Number Answer all eleven questions. 1 Any working should be clearly shown in the spaces provided as marks may be awarded for partially correct solutions. 2 You may use a calculator for this paper. 3 4

INFORMATION FOR CANDIDATES 5 The total mark for this paper is 100. 6 Figures in brackets printed down the right-hand side of pages indicate 7 the marks awarded to each question or part question. 8 You should have a calculator, ruler, compasses and protractor. The formula sheet is overleaf. 9 10 11

Total Marks

27 BLANK PAGE

28 Higher Tier Formulae Sheet

Standard Deviation

2 2 1 2 (x – x) = x x √n Ʃ Ʃ Ʃ √ n – ' n 1

29 Answer all questions. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark 1 The diagram below has been produced by a charity which helps children learn to read. Last year the charity had 15 volunteers working in 6 schools helping 266 children with their reading.

(a) How many volunteers does each symbol stand for?

Answer [1]

(b) How many children does each symbol stand for?

Answer [2]

Answer

[1]

30 2 As part of a project a student wants to collect information from a sample of Examiner Only visitors to a town. Marks Re-mark

(a) Give one reason why it is not possible for the student to choose a random sample in this situation.

Reason

[1]

(b) The student considers collecting information from people she meets coming out of the town bus station between 1 pm and 3 pm one Wednesday afternoon.

Give one advantage and one disadvantage of this method.

Advantage

[1]

Disadvantage

[1]

(i) Circle the words which describe this type of data.

Quantitative Qualitative Discrete Continuous Categorical Bivariate [2]

31 (ii) Two possible methods to get this data are shown below. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark Method A Method B Ask the visitors the distance Ask the visitors where they they travelled to get to the travelled from and use a town. computer to work out the distance later.

Which method is likely to give more accurate answers? Give a reason for your answer.

Method A Method B

Reason

[2]

(d) The student wants to test a hypothesis that most people visit the town to go shopping. She decides to ask each visitor in her sample the following question.

Most people visit this town to go shopping. Is that why you are visiting the town?

Explain why this is not a good question to ask.

Explanation

[1]

32 3 A factory produces packets of dried fruit. Examiner Only Each packet should have a mass of 50 g. Marks Re-mark Samples of packets are taken every hour and the mean mass of the sample is plotted on the control chart below.

50 Mass (g)

45 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sample number

(a) Label the target line and the lower warning line on the chart. [2]

(b) The machine packing the dried fruit needs to be checked if the control chart shows one (or more) of the following:

• One point outside the action lines; • Two out of three consecutive points outside the warning lines; • Eight consecutive points are on the same side of the target line.

Explain how the control chart shows that the machine needs to be checked.

[1]

33 (c) Each sample consists of 10 packets of dried fruit. The masses, x Examiner Only grams, of the packets in one sample are summarised as follows. Marks Re-mark

∑x = 492.9 ∑x2 = 24 384.5

(i) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of these masses.

Mean grams

Standard deviation grams [3]

(ii) One packet of dried fruit in the sample has been incorrectly recorded as having a mass of 42.15 g. The correct mass of the packet is 52.15 g.

What effect will using the correct mass of this packet of dried fruit have on the answers to (c)(i)?

The mean will

Increase Decrease Stay the same

The standard deviation will

Increase Decrease Stay the same [2]

34 4 A charity asks its supporters for a donation of money. A random sample of Examiner Only 50 donations is shown in the frequency table below. Marks Re-mark

Amount (£) 2 5 10 20 25 50 Frequency 8 12 14 11 4 1

(a) Find the median donation.

Answer £ [2]

(b) Work out the mean donation.

Answer £ [2]

(d) The next time the charity asks for donations, it wants to use a message like the one below.

Most people give at least £...

Based on the data in the random sample, what is the largest amount of money that they could put in the message? Circle the amount from the options below.

£2 £5 £10 £20 £25 £50 [1]

35 5 The population pyramids below are for the combined populations of Examiner Only England and Wales in 1961 and 2016. Marks Re-mark

(a) The modal age in 1961 was 14.

Approximately how many 14-year olds were there in England and Wales in 1961?

Answer [3]

(b) The 2016 population pyramid shows noticeable spikes just below age 70.

Make two points to compare and contrast this with the related feature of the 1961 population pyramid.

[2]

36 (c) Which of the following statements is true for 2016? Tick the correct Examiner Only one. Marks Re-mark

There are similar numbers of males and females for most ages.

There are noticeably more males than females for most ages.

There are noticeably fewer males than females for most ages. [1]

(d) Which of the following statements is true for 1961? Tick the correct one.

There are similar numbers of males and females aged over 60.

There are noticeably more males than females aged over 60.

There are noticeably fewer males than females aged over 60.

Explain how you can make this conclusion from the 1961 population pyramid.

[2]

37 6 A sample of eight employers recorded the average hourly wage of all their Examiner Only employees and the percentage of female employees. Marks Re-mark The data are shown in the table below.

Percentage of female 25 29 35 47 48 92 38 24 employees Average wage 9.21 9.72 7.28 8.50 9.92 6.80 9.50 8.25 (£/hour)

A scatter diagram showing the data points for the first six employers is given below.

(£/hour) 7 erage wage Av 6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Female employees

(a) Plot the points for the last two employers. [2]

(b) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient for the data.

Answer ______[2]

38 When the outlier is removed the product moment correlation coefficient Examiner Only changes to 0.168 Marks Re-mark

(d) Tony claims that the data shows that employers with higher percentages of female employees generally have lower average wages.

Give two reasons why his claim may not be correct.

Reason 1

Reason 2

[2]

39 7 The partially completed frequency tree below shows data about the Great Examiner Only Britain and Northern Ireland team (Team GB) at the Rio 2016 Olympics. Marks Re-mark There were 366 competitors in the team.

Adapted from http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/37132833

(a) 71 men and 59 women from Team GB won medals.

Complete the empty boxes in the frequency tree. [2]

(b) A man is chosen at random from Team GB.

What is the probability that he is a medal winner? Give your answer as a percentage to the nearest whole number.

Answer [2]

What is the probability that the medal winner is a woman? Give your answer as a percentage to the nearest whole number.

Answer [3]

40 8 Burkina Faso is a country in West Africa. The cumulative percentage Examiner Only graph below shows the ages of the male population of Burkina Faso in Marks Re-mark 2016.

Cumulative percentage

Age

(a) A boxplot for ages of males in Northern Ireland in 2016 is shown below.

On the same diagram, draw a boxplot to show the ages of males in Burkina Faso in 2016.

[5]

Age

41 (b) Compare the distribution of ages of males in Northern Ireland and Examiner Only Burkina Faso in 2016 shown on the graph on the previous page. Marks Re-mark

Comparison 1

Comparison 2

[2]

skewness

Justification

[2]

(d) (i) Show that there are upper outliers in the Burkina Faso data.

[3]

(ii) Why are lower outliers not possible?

[1]

42 (e) Instead of a cumulative percentage graph shown on the previous page Examiner Only for the Burkina Faso data, a cumulative frequency graph could have Marks Re-mark been drawn.

(i) State one advantage of using a cumulative percentage graph.

[1]

(ii) State one advantage of using a cumulative frequency graph.

[1]

(f) The table below shows some of the data used for the cumulative percentage graph.

Ages Percentage Cumulative percentage 0–4 17.8 17.8 5–9 14.8 32.6 10–14 12.7 45.3

Explain why the points on the cumulative percentage graph for these three rows are plotted at ages 5, 10 and 15.

Explanation

[2]

43 9 The time series graph and table below show Mrs Bailey’s quarterly gas Examiner Only bills for 2005–2007. Marks Re-mark The first seven four-point moving averages are also shown on the graph.

Adapted from https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/monthly-domestic-energy-price-stastics

Date Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q 2 2006 Bill £115.16 £73.22 £44.84 £194.18 £178.72 £62.73

Date Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Bill £65.12 £224.00 £217.67 £74.56 £62.94 £242.02

(a) (i) Calculate the next two four-point moving averages.

Answer £ Answer £ [4]

(ii) Plot these moving averages on the graph. [2]

(b) Draw the trend line. [1]

[1]

44 (d) Explain why four-point moving averages are appropriate for this Examiner Only situation. Marks Re-mark

Explanation

[1]

(e) The gas price index was 54 in Spring 2005 and 85 in Spring 2007.

Calculate the percentage increase in the gas price from Spring 2005 to Spring 2007.

Answer % [3]

(f) The moving averages show that Mrs Bailey’s gas bills have increased by about 50% from 2005 to 2007.

Explain why this does not mean that she is using a lot more gas.

Explanation

[2]

45 10 The diagram below represents wing lengths for a sample of blackbirds Examiner Only from a single sub-species. Marks Re-mark Frequency

Wing length (mm)

(a) (i) Complete the frequency table below for this sample.

Wing length (l mm) Frequency 120 ≤ l < 125 125≤ l < 130 380 130 ≤ l < 135 135 ≤ l < 140 396 140 ≤ l < 145 40 [2]

(ii) Calculate the estimate of the mean wing length.

Answer mm [3]

(iii) Explain why your answer in Part (a)(ii) is an estimate.

Explanation

[1]

46 (b) Explain why the diagram suggests that a Normal distribution might be Examiner Only a suitable model for wing length in this sub-species of blackbird. Marks Re-mark

Explanation

[1]

(c) Assume the wing length for blackbirds from the sub-species represented in the diagram is Normally distributed with the mean that you calculated in (a)(ii) and standard deviation 4.3 mm.

Fill in the missing numbers in the sentence below.

About 95% of the blackbirds will have wing length between

mm and mm. [2]

(d) A birdwatcher, in a different region, finds a blackbird with wing length 158 mm. He is not sure whether it is from the same sub-species as that represented in the diagram.

(i) Calculate the Z-score for this wing length. Use the mean you calculated in (a)(ii) and standard deviation 4.3 mm.

Answer [2]

(ii) Explain why this bird is unlikely to be from the sub-species represented in the diagram.

Explanation

[1]

47 11 A survey of a sample of A level students asks about the subjects they are Examiner Only taking. Marks Re-mark 5% are taking Biology, Chemistry and Mathematics. 6% are taking Biology and Mathematics. 8% are taking Chemistry and Mathematics. 7% are taking Biology and Chemistry. 21% are taking Mathematics, 12% Chemistry and 16% Biology.

Some of this information is shown in the partially completed Venn diagram below.

(a) Fill in the missing percentages on the Venn diagram.

[5]

(b) Assume that the sample is representative of the population. There are 3200 Biology students in the population.

Estimate how many of the Biology students are also taking Chemistry.

Answer [3]

48 THIS IS THE END OF THE QUESTION PAPER

49 BLANK PAGE

50 Centre Number

Candidate Number

General Certificate of Secondary Education 2019 Statistics

Unit 2

Foundation Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN PAPER

TIME 1 hour 30 minutes. For Examiner’s use only Question Marks Number INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES 1 Write your Centre Number and Candidate Number in the spaces provided at the top of this page. 2 Write your answers in the spaces provided in the question paper. 3 Answer all fourteen questions. 4 Any working should be clearly shown in the spaces provided as marks may be awarded for partially correct solutions. 5 You may use a calculator for this paper. 6 7

INFORMATION FOR CANDIDATES 8 The total mark for this paper is 80. 9 Figures in brackets printed down the right-hand side of pages indicate 10 the marks awarded to each question or part question. 11 You should have a calculator, ruler and protractor. There is no formula sheet for this examination. 12 13 14

Total Marks

51 Answer All Questions Examiner Only Marks Re-mark 1 The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) Visitor Attraction Survey Report for 2015 contained several charts relating to tourist attractions. Two such charts are included below.

The chart below shows the 2015 Top 10 Visitor Attractions in NI (excluding Country Parks/Parks/Forests & Gardens).

The chart below shows the 2015 Top 10 Country Parks/Parks/Forests and Gardens in Northern Ireland.

52 (a) List the tourist attractions from the two charts on the previous page Examiner Only with more than 0.5 million visitors each, in descending order. Marks Re-mark

[3]

(b) Excluding ‘Country Parks/Parks/Forests & Gardens’ name the two most visited tourist attractions in Northern Ireland in 2015.

[1]

(i) The most visited tourist attraction in Northern Ireland from the two charts in 2015 was

[1]

(ii) thousand people visited this attraction in 2015. [1]

53 2 The table below shows the 2015 Top 10 Visitor Attractions in Northern Examiner Only Ireland. Marks Re-mark

Top Ten Visitor Attractions 2015

Number of Visitors (Thousands)

Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1 Giant’s Causeway World 533 524 754 788 851 Heritage Site 2 Titanic Belfast n/a 665 604 634 622 3 Ulster Museum 471 595 416 466 465 4 Derry’s Walls 278 281 411 370 381 5 W5 who what where when why 251 328 297 324 372 6 Carrick-a-rede Rope Bridge 243 276 263 323 354 7 The Guildhall 35 n/a 269 299 313 8 Belfast Zoo 283 259 236 253 247 9 Oxford Island National Nature 319 297 314 217 221 Reserve 10 Mount Stewart House and 151 157 158 155 185 Gardens

Total 2,564 3,382 3,722 3,829

(a) (i) Use the values in the table to work out the ‘Total Number of Visitors for 2015’.

[1]

(ii) Roger says ‘the total number of visits to these attractions has risen each year for the past five years’.

Give a reason why Roger is correct.

Answer

[1]

54 (b) Sheila says ‘the Giant’s Causeway did not have increasing visitor Examiner Only numbers in every year’. Marks Re-mark

Is Sheila correct?

Yes No Tick one box

Give a reason for your answer.

[2]

Identify three values in the table above that suggest that an ‘initiative’ may have impacted upon tourism.

An ‘initiative’ could be for example the opening of a new attraction or an improvement to an existing attraction.

Value Place [1]

(ii) Give a reason for identifying these values.

[1]

55 3 The table below shows the estimated proportion of visits made to tourist Examiner Only attractions in Northern Ireland by people who do not live in Northern Marks Re-mark Ireland.

(a) Using the information in the table calculate the probability that a visitor to a ‘Visitor/Heritage Centre’ is a resident of Northern Ireland.

[1]

(b) (i) The number of visits to Visitor/Heritage Centres in 2015 was 3458000.

Estimate the number of these visits that were made by a resident of Northern Ireland.

[2]

(ii) Give a reason why your answer is an estimate.

[1]

56 4 The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) published Examiner Only a Statistics Bulletin entitled ‘Northern Ireland Annual Tourism Statistics Marks Re-mark 2015’ on 26 May 2016.

(a) Give two examples of the type of people who might use the information in the Statistics Bulletin and the reason why they might use it.

(i) Example 1

[1]

Reason 1

[1]

(ii) Example 2

[1]

Reason 2

[1]

(b) Suggest one reason why the Statistics Bulletin is produced every year.

[1]

(c) What do you think is the main reason why the Statistics Bulletin is usually published about 6 months after the year in the title of the report.

[1]

57 5 The table below shows information about the ticket prices to 40 visitor Examiner Only attractions. Marks Re-mark

ADULT CHILD 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Maximum £11.20 £17.50 £14.75 £15.50 £15.50 £5.70 £7.00 £7.25 £7.25 £8.50 Minimum £2.00 £1.00 £1.00 £1.60 £1.00 £1.50 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £1.00 Mean £4.60 £5.50 £4.75 £5.13 £5.74 £3.50 £2.80 £2.54 £2.88 £3.69

(a) Give one reason why the median value of the admission charges for the 40 visitor attractions might also have been an appropriate average to include in the table.

[1]

(b) (i) Jamie says ‘admission charges for children are always less than admission charges for adults’.

Using values from the table give two examples to support Jamie’s statement.

[2]

(ii) Are there any values in the table that do not support Jamie’s statement? Explain your answer.

[1]

58 (c) The NISRA report on Visitor Attractions says ‘unless otherwise stated, Examiner Only the data presented in this report refers to 225 attractions.’ Marks Re-mark

Give a reason why the mean prices of admission figures presented in the table may not be very reliable estimates.

[1]

59 6 Visitor Attractions in Northern Ireland belong to one of nine categories. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark Table 1.3 below shows the numbers in thousands who visited these Visitor attractions.

Contents Table 1.3: Number of Visits by Attraction Category 2015

Number of Visitors Attraction Category (Thousands) (%) Country Parks/Parks/Forests 7,510 43% Gardens 709 4% Historic Properties 1,459 8% Museum/Art Galleries 1,583 9% Visitor/Heritage Centres 3,458 20% Wildlife/Zoo/Nature Reserve 891 5% Workplaces 28 <1% Places of Worship 295 2% Other 1,548 9% Total (225 Responding attractions) 17,481 100%

* Totals© Crown may not Copyright add to 100% - NIRSA due -NI to Annualrounding Visitor Attraction Statistics 2015 / www.economy-ni-gov Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab (a) What type of data is ‘number of visitors’?

Circle the correct answer:

Continuous Discrete [1]

60 Sarah thinks that the total number of visits made to the categories ‘Country Examiner Only Parks/Parks/Forests’ and ‘Gardens’ might be more than the total number of Marks Re-mark visits made to all the other visitor attraction categories put together.

Sarah uses Table 1.3 on the previous page to help her find out if she is correct.

(b) (i) Carry out a suitable calculation to find the proportion of visits made to ‘Country Parks/Parks/Forests’ and ‘Gardens’.

[2]

(ii) Was Sarah correct?

Yes No Tick one box

Give a reason for your answer.

[2]

61 7 As part of the NISRA Visitor Attraction Survey, visitor attraction owners Examiner Only are asked how they count the number of visitors to their attraction. Marks Re-mark

Table 1.1 provides some information about the methods used in 2015.

Contents Table 1.1: Method of Recording Visitor Numbers, 2015 (Percentage)

Method used to record data (%) Ticket or group bookings 29% Manual count 23% Mechanical or electronic 24% Estimate 17% Sample Count 6% Other 2% Total (122 responding attractions) 100%

©* CrownTotals mayCopyright not add - toNIRSA 100% -NIdue Annual to rounding Visitor Attraction Statistics 2015 / www.economy-ni-gov Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab (a) The total percentage in the table is 101% and not 100%.

Suggest a possible explanation for this.

[1] (b) Show the calculations you need to make to draw a suitable pie chart for the data in Table 1.1 above. Use this space for your calculations.

[3]

62 Use this space for your pie chart. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark Method of Recording Visitor Numbers.

[2]

63 8 The bar chart below shows the number of each type of hot drink sold in a Examiner Only visitor attraction café one Tuesday morning. Marks Re-mark

Hot Drink Sales

Type of Hot Drink

(a) How many cups of tea were bought?

Answer [1]

(b) Which drink was the most popular?

Answer [1]

(d) What was the range of hot drinks sold?

Answer [1]

64 9 John has collected some data from visitors to Belfast Zoo about the length Examiner Only of time, in minutes, they had to queue for tickets. Marks Re-mark

His results were:

4 2 8 7 5 27 1 5 9 2

(a) Explain what is meant by an outlier.

[1]

(b) Which one of John’s list of data is likely to be an outlier?

[1]

(d) Name two statistical calculations which would not be affected by this outlier.

[2]

65 10 Tom the Tour Operator is collecting information about the number of hours Examiner Only of sunshine each month in Northern Ireland. Marks Re-mark

Tom wishes to use primary data.

(a) Suggest one way in which Tom could collect primary data.

[1]

Anna says that Tom should use secondary data.

(b) Suggest one way in which Tom could collect secondary data.

[1]

66 11 Alison wants to find out which visitor attraction was visited most often Examiner Only last summer by people at her school. Marks Re-mark

As part of her investigation Alison designs this data collection sheet.

NAME CLASS Visitor attraction Visit made Number of (Yes/No) return visits made Lagan Valley Regional Park Wallace Park The Peace Bridge Giant’s Causeway World Heritage Site Titanic Belfast Crawfordsburn Country Park Ulster Museum Derry’s Walls W5 Antrim Castle Gardens and Clotworthy House Carrick-a-Rede Rope Bridge The Guildhall

(a) (i) Name one type of chart that Alison could use to show the results of her investigation.

[1]

(ii) Why would Alison use this type of chart?

[1]

(b) Alison carries out a sample survey.

(i) Give two ways how Alison could avoid bias in her sample?

[2]

(ii) Identify the population which Alison sampled.

[1]

67 12 Robert wants to find out if a person’s age affects the probability of them Examiner Only going on a day trip to a visitor attraction. Marks Re-mark

Robert designs a questionnaire that includes this question.

Now that you are retired do you agree that you are more likely to go on a day trip to a visitor attraction?

Circle your answer Yes No

(a) (i) Give two reasons why this is not a good question.

Reason 1

[1]

Reason 2

[1]

(ii) Suggest two improvements that could be made to this question.

Improvement 1

[1]

Improvement 2

[1]

Robert improves his questionnaire and uses it to gather data.

He then decides to draw a scattergraph of age against the probability of going on a day trip.

(b) Give two reasons why it may not be appropriate to draw a line of best fit on this scattergraph.

[2]

68 13 Erin wants to find the average length of time spent on a visit to an Examiner Only attraction. Marks Re-mark

(a) Erin wants to collect the following information:

• Name of visitor attraction • Visit length • Travel time • Total time

Write down a difficulty that Erin could encounter.

[1]

(b) Erin decides to investigate the time spent on visits to Titanic Belfast.

She records the times in a grouped frequency table like the one shown below.

Visit length Tally Frequency (hours) 0 ≤ t < 0.5 0.5 ≤ t < 1.0 1 ≤ t < 1.5 .... …. 9.5 ≤ t < 10.0

She draws a frequency polygon showing the time spent in hours at this attraction.

Explain why this is an appropriate use of a frequency polygon.

[1]

69 14 Owen wants to find out what affects the decision to visit a visitor Examiner Only attraction. Marks Re-mark

(a) Owen thinks that the decision to make a visit is influenced by the distance that needs to be travelled to the attraction, and decides to carry out an investigation to see if this is true.

State a hypothesis which could be tested.

Explain how the primary data necessary to carry out Owen’s investigation could be collected.

Your answer should include:

• A hypothesis to be tested [1] • Where the data could be collected from [1] • An outline for collecting the data [1] • A sampling method which could be used and the reasons for this method [2] • One problem which could be encountered and how this could be overcome [2]

70 (b) Owen wants to analyse the data using diagrams and calculations. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark State one diagram and one calculation he could use and explain the reason for choosing each.

Diagram [1]

Explanation

[1]

Calculation [1]

Explanation

[1]

Owen now thinks the decision to make a return visit to an attraction is very much influenced by the distance that needs to be travelled to the attraction. He decides to refine his investigation to see if this is true.

(c) Suggest two useful calculations that Owen could carry out to see if this is true and explain the reason for choosing each.

Calculation [1]

Explanation

[1]

Calculation [1]

Explanation

[1]

71 THIS IS THE END OF THE QUESTION PAPER

72 Centre Number

Candidate Number

General Certificate of Secondary Education 2019 Statistics

Unit 2

Higher Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN PAPER

TIME For Examiner’s 2 hours. use only Question Marks Number

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES 1 Write your Centre Number and Candidate Number in the spaces 2 provided at the top of this page. 3 Write your answers in the spaces provided in the question paper. 4 Answer all fifteen questions. Any working should be clearly shown in the spaces provided as marks 5 may be awarded for partially correct solutions. 6 You may use a calculator for this paper. 7 8 INFORMATION FOR CANDIDATES 9 The total mark for this paper is 100 10 Figures in brackets printed down the right-hand side of pages indicate the marks awarded to each question or part question. 11 You should have a calculator, ruler and protractor. 12 The formula sheet is overleaf. 13 14 15 Total Marks

73 BLANK PAGE

74 Higher Tier Formulae Sheet

Standard Deviation

2 2 1 2 (x – x) = x x √n Ʃ Ʃ Ʃ √ n – ' n 1

75 Answer all questions Examiner Only Marks Re-mark 1 The table below shows 2015 Top Ten Visitor Attractions in Northern Ireland.

Top Ten Visitor Attractions 2015

Number of Visitors (Thousands)

Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total 2,564 3,382 3,722 3,829 © Crown Copyright - NIRSA -NI Annual Visitor Attraction Statistics 2015 / www.economy-ni-gov

(a) Use the values in the table above to work out the total Number of Visitors for 2015.

[1]

Roger says “the total number of visits to these attractions has risen each year for the past five years”

(b) Is Roger correct? Give a reason for your answer.

Answer

Reason

[2]

76 Sheila says ‘the Giant’s Causeway did not have increasing visitor numbers Examiner Only in every year’. Marks Re-mark

Yes No

Give a reason for your answer.

[2]

(d) There is no information about the number of visitors to the Guildhall in 2012.

Suggest a reason for this.

[1]

(e) The marketing department in a Travel Agent is working on a brochure which is to include a single graph summarising the information in the above table.

Which graph would be most suitable for this? Give a reason to support your answer.

[2]

77 2 The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) published Examiner Only a Statistics Bulletin entitled ‘Northern Ireland Annual Tourism Statistics Marks Re-mark 2015’ on 26 May 2016.

(a) Give two examples of the type of people who might use the information in the Statistics Bulletin and the reason why they might use it.

Example 1

[1]

Reason 1

[1]

Example 2

[1]

Reason 2

[1]

(b) Suggest one reason why the Statistics Bulletin is produced every year.

[1]

(c) What do you think is the main reason why the Statistics Bulletin is usually published about 6 months after the year in the title of the report?

[1]

78 3 Use words from the following list to complete the sentences in (a) and (b) Examiner Only below: Marks Re-mark

continuous response discrete control

(a) The number of text messages received by Ruth is a

______variable. [1]

(b) The length of time spent by Dave doing his Geography homework is a

______variable. [1]

4 John has collected some data from visitors to Belfast Zoo about the length of time, in minutes, they had to queue for tickets.

His results were:

4 2 8 7 5 27 1 5 9 2

(a) Explain what is meant by an outlier.

[1]

(b) Which one of John’s list of data is likely to be an outlier?

[1]

(d) Name two statistical calculations which would not be affected by this outlier.

[2]

79 5 The table below gives the number of flights arriving late at an airport over Examiner Only a two month period. Marks Re-mark

No. of Flights Frequency 0 4 1 7 2 10 3 17 4 18 5 5

(a) Write down the modal number of late flights.

[1]

(b) Find the median number of late flights.

Answer [1]

On the day following the two month period, 2 flights were late.

[1]

(d) What effect, if any, will this new data have on the median?

[1]

80 6 Robert wants to find out if a person’s age affects the probability of them Examiner Only going on a day trip to a visitor attraction. Marks Re-mark

Robert designs a questionnaire that includes this question.

Now that you are retired do you agree that you are more likely to go on a day trip to visit an attraction?

Circle your answer Yes No

(a) (i) Give two reasons why this is not a good question.

Reason 1

[1]

Reason 2

[1]

(ii) Suggest two improvements that could be made to this question.

Improvement 1

[1]

Improvement 2

[1]

81 Robert improves his questionnaire and uses it to gather data. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark He then decides to draw a scatter graph of age against the probability of going on a day trip.

(b) Give two reasons why it may not be appropriate to draw a line of best fit on this scatter graph.

[2]

7 The stem-and-leaf diagram below shows the number of lessons which a group of 17-year-olds took before passing their driving test.

KEY 0 / 7 means 7

0 7 8 8 9 1 0 1 2 2 3 5 6 7 9 2 1 2 3 3 5 7 8 9 9 9 3 0 1 1 2

(a) Find the lower quartile, median and upper quartile for this data.

Lower Quartile

[1]

Median

[1]

Upper Quartile

[1]

82 (b) Display the information on the previous page in box plot below. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark

[3] (c) Comment on the skewness of the above data.

[1]

83 8 The manager of Bit Fit Gym wishes to know how much time his members Examiner Only spend exercising at home. Marks Re-mark

He asks the first 8 members who arrive one Monday morning.

(a) Give two reasons why this method of sampling is likely to give biased results.

[2]

The manager refines his method of sampling and calculates that the male members of his gym spend 3.5 hours per week and the female members spend 2.7 hours per week exercising.

(b) Given that 44% of the gym membership is male, calculate the mean time spent exercising by all members of the gym.

[3]

84 9 Examiner Only Marks Re-mark

The two diagrams above show the number of trips (Domestic) taken by Northern Ireland residents and the number of trips (External) taken by visitors from outside Northern Ireland in 2015.

(a) What is the approximate proportion of Holiday trips taken by Northern Ireland residents compared to Holiday trips taken by visitors outside Northern Ireland?

[1]

(b) Do Northern Ireland residents on average spend more nights per trip than visitors from outside Northern Ireland? Explain your reasoning.

[2]

(c) Show that Northern Ireland residents on average spend less money per trip than visitors from outside Northern Ireland. Explain your reasoning.

[2]

(d) Why do you think external visitors spend more money per trip than Northern Ireland residents?

[1]

85 10 A researcher working at Craigavon City Park wishes to study the Examiner Only population of fish in the North Lake. Marks Re-mark

He catches 100 fish, marks them and returns them to the lake.

The next day, the researcher catches 20 fish and finds that 12 of them are marked.

(a) Use this information to estimate the number of fish in the lake.

Answer [4]

(b) Give one reason why this estimate may not be reliable.

[1]

11 The number of people, in thousands, who visited the Ulster Museum during the period 2011 – 2015 is given in the table below.

Number of Visitors (thousands)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ulster Museum Visitors 471 595 416 466 465 Chain Base Index Number 100 69.9 99.8

(a) Calculate the remaining two Chain Base Index Numbers in the table above.

[3]

(b) Interpret your value for the chain base index number for 2014.

[2]

86 12 Owen wants to find out what affects the decision to visit a visitor Examiner Only attraction. Marks Re-mark

Owen thinks that the decision to make a visit is influenced by the distance that needs to be travelled to the attraction, and decides to carry out an investigation to see if this is true.

(a) Write a plan for Owen’s investigation.

In your plan, you may wish to include the following: • A hypothesis to be tested [1] • Where the data could be collected from [1] • An outline for collecting the data [1] • A sampling method which could be used and the reasons for this method [2] • One problem which could be encountered and how this could be overcome [2]

87 Owen wants to analyse the data using diagrams and calculations. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark (b) State one diagram and one calculation he could use and explain the reason for choosing each.

Diagram

[1]

Explanation

[1]

Calculation

[1]

Explanation

[1]

Owen now thinks that the decision to make a return visit to an attraction is very much influenced by the distance that needs to be travelled to the attraction. He decides to refine his investigation to see if this is true.

(c) Suggest two useful calculations that Owen that could carry out to see if this is true and explain the reason for choosing each.

Calculation

[1]

Explanation

[1]

Calculation

[1]

Explanation

[1]

88 13 AB Risk provides insurance services for bicycles. Examiner Only Marks Re-mark In 2016, the company provided insurance for 4480 bicycles.

Of these, 112 had to be replaced which cost the company an average of £350 per bicycle.

(a) Calculate the cost of this risk to the company.

Answer [2]

In 2017, the company plans to insure 6580 bicycles.

The cost to the company is an average of £370 per bicycle.

(b) Calculate the cost of the risk to the company in 2017.

Answer [5]

89 14 (a) The personnel department at a manufacturing company wants to find Examiner Only out the views of staff on a number of issues. It decides to carry out a Marks Re-mark survey on a sample of staff.

(i) Give one advantage to the personnel department of carrying out a survey rather than doing a census.

[1]

(ii) Write down a possible sampling frame which the personnel department could use when selecting the sample.

[1]

(b) The table below shows information about staff employed by the company.

No. of Males No. of Females Floor Staff 236 249 Role Supervisor 383 492 Manager 75 65

The personnel department decides to choose a sample of 160 staff, stratified by Role and gender.

(i) Work out the number of male supervisors that the sample should contain.

Answer [4]

90 One of the questions the personnel department wishes to ask in the Examiner Only survey is: Marks Re-mark

Have you ever taken a day off sick when you were not ill? Tick one box.

YES NO

(ii) What problem might the personnel department have if it asks this question?

[1]

The personnel manager suggests that the data for this question are collected using the following random response technique.

Each of the 160 employees in the sample secretly tosses a fair coin. The question they answer will depend upon the result of the coin.

Coin Throw Question HEADS Did you throw heads? TAILS Have you ever taken a day off sick when you were not ill?

104 staff answer YES to their question.

(iii) Estimate the percentage of staff in the company who have taken a day off when they are not ill.

Answer [3]

91 15 The frequency curve below shows the distribution of marks received by Examiner Only pupils in a year group in their French examination. Marks Re-mark

(a) Using the diagram above, find the mean and standard deviation of this distribution.

Mean

Standard Deviation [4]

(b) Explain what is meant by a standardised score.

[1]

Amy scores 76 in the French examination.

Answer [2]

92 Amy also scored 76 marks in the German examination. Her standardised Examiner Only score in the German examination was 1.02 Marks Re-mark

(d) Compare Amy’s performance in both examinations

[1]

(e) What assumption did you make about the distribution of marks in the French examination?

[1]

93 THIS IS THE END OF THE QUESTION PAPER

94 General Certificate of Secondary Education 2019 Statistics

Pre-Release Materials for Unit 2 Foundation and Higher

[CODE] SPECIMEN

PRE-RELEASE MATERIALS

95 96

2 3 9 14 10 12 12 13 NISRA, nderson ni.gov.uk BT1 1SA e - BELFAST Contents: commercial 14 Castle 14 St Castle - Introduction 2 McAuley House Cruise Ships Comparisons ccommodation a Lead Statistician: Frequency: Annual Joanne H Hotels & Visitor Attractions Background Notes Overnighttrips in NI Tourism Statistics Branch, Telephone: 028 9585 9052 Theme: People and Places Coverage: NorthernIreland Jobs Tourism Industries in tourismstatistics@finance Email:

6 both May 201 May 6 Bulletin similar number to 5 Published 2 Published Statistics he he most popular visitor attractions were the Giant’s a 5% increase on 2014. Spend associated with these t and and I n 2015 hotel room occupancy stood at 67%. This was an increase of 2 percentage 2015 2015 there were 4.5 million overnight trips in Northern Ireland. This figure includes last year there were 17.5 million visits to local visitor attractions. This showed no change during during 2015 frompoints 2014. In total 1.9 million hotel nightsroom were sold 2015; in and trips to Northern Ireland of external visitors and domestic trips taken by local residents. The number of overnight trips shows no change on trips was £760m, up from 1% 2014; 2014. Expenditure assoc iated with these last year overnight trips to Northern Ireland by external visitors stood at 2.3 million. This is the highest number on record trips also grew by 5% to £541m in 2015; from the previous year. in Causeway (0.851 million visits) and Titanic Belfast (0.62 million2 visits); last year, 67 cruise ships docked at These2014. ships had up to 123,000 passengers/crew board.on Northern Ireland ports. This is a • • • • • Tourism s 201 Statistics Tourism Annual Northern Ireland are: points key The

97 2 Islandmagee* – Newcastle* Belfast* Tourism Northern Ireland Northern Tourism – , Copyright * Tall Ships Path Cliff Gobbins – Open Irish as up ( ( Ireland Ireland s . tourism e an , . is, th is, target f the number of of number f the th Northern Northern fall infall domestic . Last year also also year Last . . A strong pound pound strong A . a is always pictures tourism. strength of sterling sterling of strength cal film cal industry with , the tourism industry and industry tourism the , Northern Ireland hosted hosted Ireland Northern he lo Along side estimates o estimates local local , from government from last year last a picture of of picture a 5 domestic tourist demand tourist domestic legacy of the Troubles with with Troubles the of legacy A primary aim is to provide provide to is aim primary A alongside he weather weather he , 201 the the In . nitiatives I attract visitors. attract ly Ju in Ships Tall the Finally, t . T expenditure e for Government tourism Government for e . o decreases o tourism moderate and varied climate appealing. appealing. climate varied and moderate levels of tourism of levels The report points towards growthin tourism tourism This report provides provides report This local , such as such , presented are s continues to to continues the spend and als and spend fers gol the opening stages of have an impacthave on top top also influence also will have influenced influenced have will and ) our around civil unrest can counter these positive positive these counter can unrest civil around external visitor visitor external A variety of statistics A variety . ing find people s ome events can can events informs the Assembly and Executive, tourism bodies tourism Executive, and Assembly the informs and and with from visitors outside Ireland of the of island against the Euro the against Irish Open in May May in Open Irish Introduction on measure definitive a provide can statistic single no tourism, of complexity the to Due performing. is industry tourism the how 2015. in tourism cruise accommodation, local in sold rooms Ireland, Northern in overnight staying people Attractions. Visitor to visits and visits ship tourism overnight trips report The Ireland. Northern in tourism to relating data on public the the the information on progress towards the Programm the towards progress on information factors. of number a by influenced be can Tourism 15 % agencies September. in Attraction Visitor new a open s Gobbin the saw visibility international our of impact the include tourism on impact that factors Other However locations. local showcasing Thrones of Game images positive less situation economic The decrease to acts overseas destinations become more attractive) more become destinations overseas influence of nature and type volume, the influence will factors these All

98 3 . 4 m in 201 billion. 2 5 r holiday, holiday, r £7 the number of of number the , and estimates they estimates 201 4 on % higher than in in than higher % 11. The methods used from 2011 his is 2 survey based survey the statistics also include also statistics the change T are are an increase of 1% from 1% of increase an trip statistics statistics trip orthern Ireland. Ireland. orthern s ted expenditure. To estimate these measures two two measures these estimate To expenditure. ted A itions. The UN use the concept of “overnighting”. “overnighting”. of concept the use UN The itions. this shows no substantial substantial no shows this 4.4£3 at stood Added Value Gross NI for estimate spent in N in spent million. This represented represented This million. Whilst were were 60 . ). ; 9 1 rnighting of visitors to Northern Ireland Ireland Northern to visitors of rnighting nights nights note note 2013 million 15.4 background overnight trips was £ 7 was trips overnight 4 201 the context, in million) round 2% of the local economy; local the of 2% a round to equates broadly trips overnight on trips, (trips, nights and spend since 2011). since spend and nights (trips, all 60 7 (Domestic & External) & (Domestic at air and sea ports in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are undertaken to identify identify to undertaken are Ireland of Republic the and Ireland Northern in ports sea and air at in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are undertaken to identify Northern Ireland Ireland Northern identify to undertaken are Ireland of Republic the and Ireland Northern in statistics statistics . Note overnighting excludes day trips, which will be a significant part of the local tourism market. market. tourism local the of part significant a be will which trips, day excludes overnighting Note . overnight overnight ips are: ips NI - 2011 period the than higher million million overnight trips in Northern Ireland Northern in trips overnight million was 2 2 for overnight tr overnight for tourism cannot readily be compared with earlier data. household surveys expenditure associated with with associated expenditure surveys of passengers of surveys trips in 2015, 2015, in trips there were 4.5 were there statistics statistics Headline overnight trip statistics are measured using standard UN defin UN standard using measured are statistics trip overnight Headline To put this annual expenditure (£ expenditure annual this put To . domestic 4 Firstly, Firstly, Secondly overnight trips to Northern Ireland by people living outside the island of Ireland. of island the outside living people by Ireland Northern to trips overnight based overnight trips of Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland residents. Ireland of Republic and Ireland Northern of trips overnight based during 2015 2015 during 4.5 the with associated Indicating that in monetary terms spending terms monetary in that Indicating 5 201 in 201 overnight overnight subject to associated confidence intervals (see (see intervals confidence associated to subject (i) (ii) • • • Overnight: fo be to need not does This more. or night one for residence of place usual your from away staying as defined broadly is This ove as well As etc. business relatives, visiting to relate also can it overnights of local residents within within residents local of overnights The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency took over measurement ofexternal and domestic overnight trips in 2010/20 Overnight Trips Northern in Ireland associa the and trips overnight of number the are activity tourism of measures key Two undertaken. are households and passengers of surveys annual rolling of sets three these in trend the shows 1 Table 1 The headline headline The are are for assessing

99 4 % 0% - 4% - 5% - 8 % +1 +2% +5% +5% +6% . - 15) (2014 % Change % 1 - 2015 5 5 9 201 7 60 541 21 2015 2,28 2,230 4,51 4,791 15,432 10,642 5 5 2 9 1 75 514 238 2014 2,177 2,33 4,51 5,04 ousehold Survey conducted(CHS) by NISRA 15,06 10,016 ISRA),the Survey of Overseas Travellers conducted (SOT) on behalf y (N 0 3 2 2 87 diture in N orthern Ireland 093 910 98 5 77 72 531 19 2013 2 , 9 , 1 , 4,07 4 , 14,4 expen External Visitorsto NorthernIreland 984 885 018 906 689 488 201 2012 1 , 9 , 2 , 4,002 3 , 13,791 Domestic Tourism 2 68 690 93 992 0 3 6 641 463 178 2011 1 , 9 , 3,9 4 ,698 2 , 14, (£M) External Domestic (£M) (£M) Domestic External (000s) External External (000s) External Domestic (000s) Domestic Domestic (000s) Nights (000s) Nights Ireland,the Household TravelSurvey conducted (HTS) Central by Statistics Office (CSO) theand NorthernIreland ContinuousH Fáilte Overall Overall Overall Expenditure (£M) Expenditure Overall Overall Trips (000s) Trips Overall Full information Externalon overnight tripsto NorthernIreland can foundbe at the following link: Full information on NorthernIreland domestictourism can foundbe at the following link: Table Estimated 1: number overnight of trips, nightsand Figures derived from NorthernIreland PassengerSurvey (NIPS)conducted the by NorthernIreland Statistics and AgencResearch of

100 5

) 5 give (201 % of % of 9 7% 1 & 2 1 Rep. of Rep. Ireland, Ireland, 29% Great Great Britain, 15% UK & UK Ireland, Ireland, Outside Outside . Figures own by place of origin people from the Republic Irelandof , 49% , Ireland Ireland Northern Northern (domestic) million) by Figure 2: Breakd

by local residents (domestic trips). For example , 7 % (0. 3 t Britain, trips trips were made External External Overseas Overseas 1,965,000 2,285,000 Total trips Total 4,515,000 the place of origin of visitors Northern to Ireland million) ) 5 tourism is (201 people people living Greain people from outside the UK and Ireland. by Ireland Ireland Ireland made by 670,000 320,000 & Ireland Ireland & Northern Northern 2,230,000 2,230,000 Republic of Republic (domestic) Outside UK UK Outside million) . 5 %) all of overnight (2. trips 2 49 % (0. 7 5 million) were half (

3 igin just under trips trips Great Great Britain External External Overseas Overseas 1,295,000 1,965,000 1,965,000 2,285,000 d the remaining 1 someone from Belfast going Fermanagh to the for weekend either on holiday or to visit friends/relatives. A further 2 overnight trips (1. an Place ofPlace or A further important part the of assessment of total In some detail on this for 201 Figure 1: Overnight by trips place of origin to nearest thousandRounded the

101 6 k) 1 k) 5 - 2015 2014 m illion 3 150 Great Britain (+12 Britain Great and Ireland (+5 Ireland and k) 69k) - 4 UK 10 - 100 Outside Outside of Ireland ( Ireland of 50 the the vast majority of Great Britain ) . In total there were 2. Republic Northern Ireland ( Ireland Northern 0 of visitors from O utside UK & Ireland come 50 - ). Within). trips, th e s re made by people live outsidewho the island of Ireland (Great two thirds (67%) 100 - we F igure 1 in most the of growth in visitors, fromvisitors mainland Europe Associated expenditure by this group of visitors also increased by 5% 150 - 4 . igure 3: Change in number of overnight visitors (thousands) F visitors ( resident outside Northern Ireland rseas trips external rise from 201 is the labelled ove 5 % – a the number 5 , residents both and theand in 201 69,000) million overnightmillion trips Northern to Ireland ( - in the last year . This ( - 10 4 ,000) tside GB Ireland and utside UK & Ireland between and2014 2015, O %) arrive through Northern Ireland ports. In contrast % or 2.0 0 4 ough Republic of Ireland ports. domestic overnight trips taken by , total from £514m to £541m.While GB residents accounted for accounted for most of the increase in expenditure. external overnight trips Northern Ireland Figure 3 shows the change in the visitors to Northern Ireland shows that number of visitors to Northern Ireland from Great Britain increased by 121,000 and fromthose ou Republic Irelandof fell. increased by 55,000. However, of External trips focusA major of the industrytourism Britain andBritain visitors (9 thr In

102 7 – ) 2015 2015 as 9 , - , indeed it 2007 shows the roubles 4 2008 highest on record 2.3m external overnight ( trips Great Recession available as data for NI tourism begins in start T of the 2001 5 ) t the graph still paints a representative picture of the trend over time. . . This is the longest timescale Good Friday Good Friday 1998 Agreement 1994 total) Agency a longer time trend be can informative. F igure 1987 approximately 13% of the This factor second was uniquenot Northern to Ireland 5 . The graph shows the impact of the trips , Belfast Harbour opens 1983 Airport 7 - 9. to Northern Ireland (1959 - 201 RoI make up ( overnight 1980 (millions) 1973 overnight trips of of Ireland have been included from 2000 onwards 1966 Troubles start 1969 start Troubles on tourismon demand globally. external external impact NorthernIreland Tourist Board; Northern2010 onwards Ireland Statistics Researchand Aldergrove opens for opens for Aldergrove civilian flights 1963 Annual Annual 1959 ) 2010 633,000 trips overnight ( - 4 : 1959 There have been minor changes to the methodology and sources used to measure external overnight trips to Northern Ireland, bu 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 d a similar When change assessing the in number of external number externalof overnight visitors by from year 1959 201 to well as the impact of the worldwide great recession in 200 Sources: 1959 1959 . Note: Figures for residents of the Republic ha Figure

103 8 . The two The two mainstays of 5 . igure shown F in are result s ; the Holiday , 43% , Holiday Other , 5% , Other holiday/leisure. These both accounted for 43% of all overnight visitors all overnight trips – 5 Business , 10% , Business Visit Friends/ Visit Relatives, 43% Relatives, also asked the reason they stayed overnight are visiting friends/ relatives and : Reason for Overnight Trip, 201 5 local market are Reason Reason for Overnight Trip Survey respondents Figure the the

104 Q4 for the Q3 1.90million - 2015 Q2 total number of 2015 2015 Q1 see F igure 6 – show the show 4 4 . Average room occupancy Q4 5 201 Q3 1.85million from 201 2014 sold in - Q2 2014 2014 The self annual catering unit occupancy for Figures Figures for 201 nights Q1 % . Q4 percentage s point million million room Q3 5 1.80million 2013 - an estimatedan 2 7 a monthlya occupancy survey local of hotels and commercial Q2 Quarter/Year NIOccupancy Surveys s . 2013 2013 4 . Q1 5 ) NI NI Self Catering Survey 201 and guestand accommodation). 201 period was Q4 on 7 %, an increase of 2 s Q4 6 - Q3 1.77million 2012 3 % increase from the 1.8 - Q2 2012 2012 Q1 sold (Q1sold 2011 percentage point million, a 3 90 Q4 1. nights Q3 and other commercial accommodation 1.61million 2011 - sold was room occupancy in hotels was tering accommodation in canNi foundbe at the following link: Q2 2011 2011 - nights %, an increase of 6 nights Q1 6 : Hotel room , average room 0 5 was 3 room

600 500 400 300 200 100 Hotel Rooms Sold (thousands) Sold Rooms Hotel 5 Figure Full information on NorthernIreland accommodation can occupancy be found at the following link: Full information selfon ca for Guesthousesfor and & Bed Breakfasts in samethe 201 In 201 In Hotel Alongside passenger household and surveys, NISRA conduct accommodation (e.g. & bed breakfasts, guest houses quarterly trend which the shows seasonality in this market hotel hotel

105 10 ,000 Just 851 between demand in crease in the number and de ; % 2 country ) . Theparks figures no no change showing a ( excluding 5 Visitor AttractionsVisitor in Northern Ireland. hen w hen compared to 4 201 ,000 visitors) , 5 ; showed that there was 22 5 , survey of all annual annual and 201 visitor attractions 201 in 2015 . The results show that: n 4 a NI Visitor Attraction Statistics Attraction Visitor NI 201 for both most popular % increase in numberthe of visitors s Causeway World Heritage Site attracted the highest number of visitors with ’ 8 4 . at theat of end December returned data that that . This was a n 5 million visits made to visitor attractions during 201 were surveyed picture picture of tourism demand NISRA run 17.5 attractions and 201 5 ; 4 attractions of visitors comparedwhen to 201 excluding country parks, the Giant visitors during 201 Titanic Belfast attracted the second highest number of visitors (6 comparing 201 there there were the relative importance of the two headline attractions in Northern Ireland. • • • • Full information on NorthernIreland visitor attractions can be found at the following link: Figure 7 overleaf shows results the for the ten show over 400over Visitor Attractions Visitor To a further provide

106 11 2%  Belfast Titanic ↑8% Museum 0% 622k Giant's Causeway Giant's Ulster 851k 465k 185k 381k Mount Stewart Mount 19% ↑ 221k (excluding country parks/parks/forests/gardens) country (excluding 372k 5 ↑ 2% 247k Oxford Island Oxford 313k 354k 2015 - 2014 W5 2% ↑15%  Belfast Zoo Belfast - a ↑ 9% Rede Carrick Rope Bridge Rope :Visitor Top Ten Attractions 201 7 Figure *Arrow *Arrow indicates increase/decrease between

107 12 and 7 ) ships docked in Although there is no . cruise the number of (6ships in Bangor eir associated expenditure, total capacity has in Londonderry and 3 5 , there were twice over A breakdown of these 58,000 jobs is given in F igure 8. a 3% increase in employee jobs in tourism related industries visitors 17% d ed industries.ed Accommodationfor docked in Belfast, 6 NI Employment Census of ood and beverage s indicate F serving activities 57% 58,000 Tourism 58,000 jobs Employee Other 7% figure EarlyIndicators activities 12% for further information). Of these ships, 58 1 . Sporting & recreational Transport6% 00) 8,000 passengers and crew onboard. 201 In note 1 3 ,0 employee jobs are in tourism relat of of all up to 12 with to 5 up background (see : Employee in Jobs Tourism Related Industries, 2013 one inone ten 8 in Tourism RelatedIndustries led . doub passengers/crew ( availabledata on the number of passengers crew or disembark,who th or The recent most NI Census Employmentof between 2011 and 2013. This increase was mainly ‘accommodationin for visitors’ ‘food and and beverage serving’ industries. Around Figure The of number cruise ships docking in Northern Ireland has increased markedly over time. 2011,In 32 Northern Ireland CruiseShips Docking Northern in Ireland Ports Jobs Full information on early indicators can foundbe the following at link: Further information theon NI Census of Employment can be foundat the following link:

108 13 %). 1 3 2015) and – 4 Holiday Friends/ Visiting Relatives Business Other % Change (2014 Africa pointed to 5 Between 201 grew bygrew 4.4% in 2015 and the Republic of . (+5%) occurred the for RoI (+ for for visit as a a as whole % 49 across the globe Northern Ireland Northern ingdom % 31 2 million external visitors visitors external million 2 nited K by country reasonand the the U 5 %) 5 (+ 5 %) . H owevera larger increase nternational tourist arrivals , Republic NorthernUK , and Ireland Ireland of 201 , United Kingdom United % 38 by reason in reason by similar to the UK (+ , 36 million external visitors visitors external million 36 rips t %) 3 1 (+ vernight vernight o proportion of external overnight trips in 201 external Republic of Ireland of Republic visitors to NI increased by 5% 46% millionexternal visitors 8 Proportion of Figure 9 shows the 9 , external

5 0%

reason, country reason, - 60% 40% Trip of 20% (%) Prop. 201 Ireland. Ireland. Comparisons According the to latest UNWTOWorld Barometer, Tourism i reachto a total of 1.184 billion in 2015. Europe (+5%) led growth absolute in relativeand terms supported by a weaker euro. Asia and the Pacific theand Americas also grew by 5% theand East Middle by 3%. Limited available data for a 3% decrease international in arrivals. It is informative when assessing tourism to compare Northern Ireland to Figure

109 14 in . This. on due due on more more decrease decrease . now collected collected now Tourism Tourism only revenue target target revenue (i) to . overnight trips overnight overseas link is also ing Programme for Government Government for Programme holiday 15 The next tourism statistics statistics tourism next The , while the tourism the , while strong pound acts pound strong . visitors who took took who visitors A e publication date. The figures in this this in figures The date. publication e link - 2011 tabular format tabular in online he data quality of each source and any any and source each of quality data he has been met been has . expenditure to increase tourism revenue to £800m and visitor visitor and £800m to revenue tourism increase to gress towards towards gress available at this this at available is on Northern Ireland overnight trips trips overnight Ireland Northern on NISRA researched the two sources and presented and and presented and sources two the researched NISRA tourism are . Code of Practice for Official Statistics Official for Practice of Code Authority Statistics UK nformation nformation I results will be made available available made be will results link . shows the target target the shows ilte Ireland to gain information on the the on information gain to Ireland ilte á ports will have influenced influenced have will that the target on visitor numbers visitor on target the that stics meeting with all relevant providers and users of the data. The findings can can findings The data. the of users and providers relevant all with meeting stics in 2015 in . More detailed data data detailed More . statistics Corporate Plan Corporate indicate can be accessed at this this at accessed be can DETI ending March 2015. These 2015. March ending (ii) to decrease domestic tourist demand a s local residents demand findwill tourist domestic decrease to (ii) results results The date available at the time of publication. Northern Ireland Tourism statistics have undergone a series series a undergone have statistics Tourism Ireland Northern publication. of time the at available date and year year - through Republic of Ireland Ireland of Republic through to - ed of Overseas Travellers run by F by run Travellers ofOverseas for the for exit se The 2015. he strength of the pound pound the of strength he . T in July and . link in managed impartially and objectively in the public interest public the in objectively and impartially managed separate survey carried out by Central Statistics Office Ireland. Ireland. Office Statistics Central by out carried survey separate or changes in methodology in changes or . will bewill are are meet identified user needs, user identified meet accessible, readily and explained well are and methods, sound to according produced are not fully met fully not spend of external visitors visitors external of spend b. c. d. a. This report presents a summary of tourism tourism of summary a presents report This revisi to subject be may estimates The Ireland. Northern in activity tourism on data timely provide to designed are estimates th after returned data of inclusion the or methodology survey/analysis the to improvements to up most the are document the with line in conducted is statistics tourism of production The statistics the that means pro monitoring of means primary the are report this in reported measures The Tourism data is derived from a variety of sources, more information on these sources can also be found at this this at found be also can sources these on information more sources, of variety a from derived is data Tourism tourism. to related targets (PfG) 4.4m to numbers NISRA uses the Survey the uses NISRA of organisational changes and revisions to methodology. Information on the sources, t sources, the on Information methodology. to revisions and changes organisational of be accessed at at accessed be Northern Ireland Ireland Northern stati tourism Ireland all the at findings the agreed attractive the the was revisions through a through release release 1. 4. 5. 3. 2. Background Notes

110 5 1 . r link . 10% - results results this 4 Northern Northern latest . The latest ’ 201 two two years in Government respondents do do respondents Local Local industries methodology can be can methodology 5 survey The 201 Mourne Council relating to to relating Council Mourne at other parts of Northern Ireland Ireland Northern of parts other at on overnight trips overnight on . & link this statistics and the associated the and tourism characteristic tourism and Newry Newry and trips and excluded from the overnight trips figures figures trips overnight the from excluded and trips - . Cruise North West North Cruise , by by NISRA on the number of jobs in ‘ , users should be aware that that aware be should users , ocking in the morning and then leaving in the the in leaving then and morning the in d ocking basis, day on a single . data visualisation tool is available at at available is tool visualisation data monthly Visit Belfast link also drop anchor and tender passengers ashore ashore passengers tender and anchor drop also , the timing of the release of 2015 data of 2015 release the of timing the , visits are considered day considered are visits NISRA is in the process of changing the methodology of data collection to capture capture to collection of data methodology the changing of process the in is NISRA and a and can can available is for 2013 as the Census of Employment is carried out every every out carried is Employment of Census the as 2013 for is available at this this at ship ship link ased on the survey design confidence intervals for domestic tourism trips stands at +/ at stands trips tourism domestic for intervals confidence design survey the on ased this Northern Ireland Ireland Northern statistics from statistics B sampling error. Confidence intervals around the estimates of all overnight trips in Northern Northern in trips overnight all of estimates the around intervals Confidence error. sampling excluded. excluded. cruise Census of Employment of Census and are updated updated are and are link . . Cruise ships ships Cruise . d surveys in Northern Ireland Northern in surveys d Information on confidence intervals in Northern Ireland tourism statistics can be accessed at accessed be can statistics tourism Ireland Northern in intervals confidence on Information 2015. NISRA will explore the impact and will update users and include this group in the future. Users Users future. the in group this include and users update will and impact the explore will NISRA 2015. in July Census of Employment of Census 5%. - % for the year. the for % ruise ships visit To address this this address To . 7 househol . Tourism Statistics Plan - are included are link under UN definitions his port t t be published published be statistics are produced in as timely a way as possible, it is realised that early indicators would be useful. Early tourism tourism Early useful. be would indicators early that realised is it possible, as way a timely as in produced are statistics in section 1. 1. section in will will timates in this bulletin are derived from sample surveys and are therefore subject to sampling errors. Sampling errors are are errors Sampling errors. sampling to subject therefore are and surveys sample from derived are bulletin this in timates te, the smaller the associated associated the smaller the te, ile the the ile nd external trips at +/ at trips external nd Bangor & Portrush) & Bangor ( Due to the nature of nature the Due to However, whole. a as Ireland Northern for information collect to designed are systems statistics Tourism from estimates includes report This breakdown industries characteristic tourism the on information More of c majority The vast Thus evening. outlined Warrenpoint determined both by the sample design and by the sample size. Generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particula a supporting sample the larger the speaking, Generally size. sample the by and design sample the by both determined indicators are published at this at published are indicators Ireland stands at +/ at stands Ireland Wh Ireland residents aged under 16 under aged residents Ireland recent most The level. Area Local at analysis some for allowing trips overnight these during stay they where indicate at found be can level this at published results es The this informationfrom April the on this see can a accessed a estima 11. 6. 8. 7. 9. 10.

111 16 by reland reland and the the and residents take take residents bleTa in noted As Northern I Northern strong pound pound strong Northern Ireland Ireland Northern trips , the number of trips taken by by taken trips of number the fE [email protected] 028 9052028 9604 of 3% in in 3% of residents took advantage of the the of advantage took residents in this report but they do give some context. context. some give do they but report this in increase increase Media Enquiries: Press Office, D Netherleigh, Massey Avenue BELFAST BT4 2JP Telephone: Email: Northern Ireland Ireland Northern equivalent equivalent - ni.gov.uk . ics are not presented in detail in presented not are ics last year more more year last that Facebook to holiday overseas. holiday to nd . However, there was an was there However, 15 . a indicates indicates - 14 Castle Street Twitter 028 9052028 9585 tourismstatistics@finance Henderson - 2014 period number offlights overseas. This This overseas. Northern Ireland. These statist These Ireland. Northern number of domestic overnight trips (that is Northern Ireland residents spending a night away from their home within NI) fell fell NI) within home their from away night a spending residents Ireland Northern is (that trips overnight domestic of number over the the over Responsible Statistician: Mrs Joanne NISRA Tourism Statistics Branch, McAuley House, 2 BELFAST BT1 1SA Telephone: E - mail: NISRA has also started to use the Continuous Household Survey to measure the number of of number the measure to Survey Household Continuous the use to started also has NISRA outside residents increasing Follow NISRA on 1 the 1 the 4% 12. 13.

112 Statistical Theme: People and Places Year of Data: January - December 2015 Data Subset: Tourism Dataset Title: Northern Ireland Tourism Statistics Coverage: Northern Ireland Source: Tourism Statistics Branch (NISRA) Responsible Joanne Henderson Statistician: 028 9052 9585 [email protected] Address: NISRA Tourism Statistics Branch, 3rd Floor, McAuley House 2-14 Castle Street BELFAST BT1 1SA National Statistics Data? No Publication Date: 26/05/2015 (revised 12/08/2016)

Media Enquiries: DfE Communications Office Netherleigh, Massey Avenue BELFAST BT4 2JP Telephone: 028 9052 9604 [email protected]

113 Contact Background Notes List of Tables 1. Rolling Year Table 1.1 Estimated number of overnight trips, nights and expenditure in NI (all visitors) 2011-2015 Table 1.2 Estimated number of overnight trips in NI (all visitors) by reason for visit 2011-2015 Table 1.3 Estimated number of overnight trips in NI by market 2011-2015 Table 1.4 Estimated number of overnight trips, nights and expenditure in NI (excluding NI residents) 2011-2015 Table 1.5 Estimated number of overnight trips to NI by reason for visit 2011-2015 Table 1.6 Estimated nights spent in NI (all visitors) for 2011-2015 Table 1.7 Estimated expenditure (£) spent in NI (all visitors) 2011-2015 Table 1.8 Overnight trips taken by NI residents - All Destinations, 2011-2015 Table 1.9 Northern Ireland Hotel, Guesthouse, Bed & Breakfast and Guest Accommodation Year to Date Table 1.10 Northern Ireland Hotel, Guesthouse, Bed & Breakfast and Guest Accommodation rooms and beds sold 2011-2015 Table 1.11 Number of Visits by Attraction Category 2015 Table 1.12 Top Ten Participating Visitor Attractions 2015 (excluding country parks/parks/forests/gardens) 2 Table 1.13 Number of cruise ships and maximum passenger and crew numbers to Northern Ireland by port 2012-2015

2. Quarterly Breakdown Table 2.1 Estimated number of overnight trips, nights and expenditure in NI (all visitors) by quarter, 2011-2015

List of Figures Figure 1 Breakdown by place of origin 2015 Figure 2 Change in number of overnight visitors 2014-2015 Figure 3 Annual external overnight trips to Northern Ireland (1959-2015) Figure 4 Reason for overnight trips in Northern Ireland 2015 Figure 5 Hotel room nights sold (Q1 2011 - Q4 2015) Figure 6 Top 10 Responding Visitor Attractions (excluding Country Parks/Parks/Forests & Gardens) 2015 (Thousands) Figure 7 Employee jobs in tourism related industries 2013 Figure 8 Proportion of external overnight trips by reason in UK, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, 2015

Contact Background Notes

114 Contents Background Notes Table 1.1 Estimated(1,2) number of overnight trips, nights and expenditure in NI (all visitors), 2011-2015

% Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2014-2015) Overall Trips 3,967,762 4,024,505 4,069,440 4,513,146 4,531,618 0%

Overall Nights 14,689,997 13,857,763 14,393,835 15,082,371 15,470,769 3%

Overall Expenditure (£) 641,047,679 686,321,850 715,190,934 744,902,296 764,066,272 3%

(2) Figures derived from the Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS) conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), the Survey of Overseas Travellers (SOT) conducted on behalf of Fáilte Ireland, the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (CHS) conducted by NISRA.

(3) Data for calendar years (January - December)

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

115 Contents Background Notes Table 1.2 Estimated(1,2) number of overnight trips in NI (all visitors) by reason for visit, 2011-2015

% Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2014-2015) Holiday 1,784,198 1,722,831 1,690,499 2,037,091 1,939,259 -5%

Visiting friends/relatives 1,552,730 1,632,540 1,663,051 1,894,784 1,924,022 2%

Business 379,602 393,832 416,666 373,140 458,623 23%

Other 251,232 275,302 299,225 208,131 209,714 1%

Total Overnight Trips 3,967,762 4,024,505 4,069,440 4,513,146 4,531,618 0%

(1) All surveys are based on sample surveys and therefore have an associated degree of sampling error. Information on confidence intervals where these are available and sample sizes are provided in the background notes. (2) Figures derived from the Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS) conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), the Survey of Overseas Travellers (SOT) conducted on behalf of Fáilte Ireland, the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (CHS) conducted by NISRA.

(3) Data for calendar years (January - December)

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

116 Contents Background Notes Table 1.3 Estimated(1) number of overnight trips in NI by market, 2011-2015

% Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2014-2015) GB Overnight Trips (2) 1,052,227 1,034,439 1,165,002 1,174,608 1,295,419 10%

Outside UK and RoI Overnight Trips (2) 509,089 519,280 527,909 614,154 669,600 9%

Total Overnight Trips from outside NI and RoI 1,561,316 1,553,720 1,692,912 1,788,763 1,965,019 10%

RoI Overnight Trips (3) 370,310 452,716 396,359 389,757 336,383 -14%

Total Overnight Trips from outside NI 1,931,626 2,006,436 2,089,271 2,178,520 2,301,402 6%

NI Overnight Trips (4) 2,036,136 2,018,069 1,980,170 2,334,627 2,230,216 -4%

Total Overnight Trips 3,967,762 4,024,505 4,069,440 4,513,146 4,531,618 0%

(1) All surveys are based on sample surveys and therefore have an associated degree of sampling error. Information on confidence intervals where these are available and sample sizes are provided in the background notes. (2) Figures derived from the Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS) conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and the Survey of Overseas Travellers (SOT) conducted on behalf of Fáilte Ireland. (3) Figures derived from the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) (4) Figures derived from the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (CHS) conducted by NISRA. (5) Data for Calendar Years - January - December

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

117 Contents Background Notes Table 1.4 Estimated(1,2) number of overnight trips, nights and expenditure in NI (excluding NI residents), 2011 - 2015

% Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2014-2015) Overall Trips 1,931,626 2,006,436 2,089,271 2,178,520 2,301,402 6%

Overall Nights 9,991,915 9,951,585 9,816,905 10,033,133 10,680,185 6%

Overall Expenditure (£) 462,966,596 485,300,827 523,642,699 507,291,498 544,712,096 7%

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

118 Contents Background Notes Table 1.5 Estimated(1) number of overnight trips to NI by reason for visit, 2011-2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Change Holiday 181,423 193,983 203,278 227,677 267,987 18% Visiting friends/relatives 618,346 585,514 716,114 701,529 764,838 9% Business 212,629 219,343 219,399 221,989 243,369 10% Other 39,829 35,599 26,212 23,413 19,224 -18% (2) GB Overnight Trips 1,052,227 1,034,439 1,165,002 1,174,608 1,295,419 10% Holiday 249,661 266,635 284,940 316,038 327,436 4% Visiting friends/relatives 176,495 169,076 147,950 216,658 237,619 10% Business 67,951 62,651 73,300 62,564 79,202 27% Other 14,982 20,918 21,719 18,894 25,343 34% (2) Outside UK and RoI Overnight Trips 509,089 519,280 527,909 614,154 669,600 9% Holiday 100,260 188,391 150,542 164,323 134,452 -18% Visiting friends/relatives 188,900 176,212 180,010 167,696 112,860 -33% Business 24,290 23,263 29,296 17,376 34,091 96% Other 56,860 64,850 36,511 40,362 54,980 36% (3) RoI Overnight Trips 370,310 452,716 396,359 389,757 336,383 -14% Holiday 1,252,854 1,073,822 1,051,739 1,329,053 1,209,383 -9% Visiting friends/relatives 568,989 701,739 618,977 808,902 808,705 0% Business 74,731 88,574 94,672 71,211 101,961 43% Other 139,561 153,934 214,782 125,461 110,167 -12% (3) NI Overnight Trips 2,036,136 2,018,069 1,980,170 2,334,627 2,230,216 -4% Holiday 1,784,198 1,722,831 1,690,499 2,037,091 1,939,259 -5% Visiting friends/relatives 1,552,730 1,632,540 1,663,051 1,894,784 1,924,022 2% Business 379,602 393,832 416,666 373,140 458,623 23% Other 251,232 275,302 299,225 208,131 209,714 1% (2,3) Total Overnight Trips 3,967,762 4,024,505 4,069,440 4,513,146 4,531,618 0%

(1) All surveys are based on sample surveys and therefore have an associated degree of sampling error. Information on confidence intervals where these are available and sample sizes are provided in the background notes. (2) Figures derived from the Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS) conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and the Survey of Overseas Travellers (SOT) conducted on behalf of Fáilte Ireland. (3) Figures derived from the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (CHS) conducted by NISRA. (4) Estimates based on a sample size of <30 appear shaded as Estimates based on a sample size of 31-50 appear shaded as Estimates based on a sample size of 51-100 appear shaded as (5) Data for calendar years (January - December)

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

119 Contents Background Notes Table 1.6 Estimated(1) nights spent in NI (all visitors), 2011-2015

% Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2014-2015) GB Nights (2) 4,897,860 4,555,921 5,482,224 4,994,064 5,426,342 9%

Outside UK and RoI Nights (2) 3,946,275 4,147,687 3,331,909 3,951,114 4,403,449 11%

Total outside NI and RoI Nights 8,844,135 8,703,607 8,814,133 8,945,178 9,829,791 10%

RoI Nights (3) 1,147,780 1,247,978 1,002,772 1,087,955 850,394 -22%

Total outside NI Nights 9,991,915 9,951,585 9,816,905 10,033,133 10,680,185 6%

NI Nights (4) 4,698,082 3,906,178 4,576,930 5,049,238 4,790,584 -5%

Total Nights 14,689,997 13,857,763 14,393,835 15,082,371 15,470,769 3%

(1) All surveys are based on sample surveys and therefore have an associated degree of sampling error. Information on confidence intervals where these are available and sample sizes are provided in the background notes. (2) Figures derived from the Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS) conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and the Survey of Overseas Travellers (SOT) conducted on behalf of Fáilte Ireland. (3) Figures derived from the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) (4) Figures derived from the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (CHS) conducted by NISRA. (5) Data for calendar years (January - December)

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

120 Contents Background Notes Table 1.7 Estimated(1) expenditure (£) spent in NI (all visitors) 2011-2015

% Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2014-2015) GB Expenditure (2) 235,242,761 243,636,218 273,361,724 257,195,971 274,333,344 7%

Outside UK and RoI Expenditure (2) 168,275,589 174,249,267 200,383,813 188,846,481 209,453,560 11%

Total outside UK and RoI Expenditure 403,518,350 417,885,485 473,745,537 446,042,452 483,786,904 8%

RoI Expenditure (3) 59,448,246 67,415,342 49,897,162 61,249,047 60,925,192 -1%

Total outside NI Expenditure 462,966,596 485,300,827 523,642,699 507,291,498 544,712,096 7%

NI Expenditure (4) 178,081,084 201,021,023 191,548,235 237,610,797 219,354,176 -8%

Total Expenditure 641,047,679 686,321,850 715,190,934 744,902,296 764,066,272 3%

(1) All surveys are based on sample surveys and therefore have an associated degree of sampling error. Information on confidence intervals where these are available and sample sizes are provided in the background notes. (2) Figures derived from the Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS) conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and the Survey of Overseas Travellers (SOT) conducted on behalf of Fáilte Ireland. (3) Figures derived from the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) (4) Figures derived from the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (CHS) conducted by NISRA. (5) Data for calendar years (January - December)

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

121 Contents Background Notes Table 1.8: Overnight trips taken by NI residents - All Destinations, 2011-2015

Total Average Total Trips Nights length of (000s) (000s) stay

Northern Ireland (NI) 2011 2,036 4,698 2.3 2012 2,018 3,906 1.9 2013 1,980 4,577 2.3 2014 2,335 5,049 2.2 2015 2,230 4,791 2.1 Change over year (%) 1 -4 -5 -1

Republic of Ireland (RoI) 2011 1,420 3,612 2.5 2012 1,299 3,401 2.6 2013 1,572 3,665 2.3 2014 1,708 4,451 2.6 2015 1,492 3,958 2.7 Change over year (%) 1 -13 -11 +2

Great Britain (GB)2 2011 1,270 4,277 3.4 2012 1,300 5,263 4.0 2013 1,115 3,781 3.4 2014 1,097 3,965 3.6 2015 984 3,254 3.3 Change over year (%) 1 -10 -18 -8

Other Overseas 2011 874 8,461 9.7 2012 795 6,718 8.5 2013 957 8,710 9.1 2014 996 8,538 8.6 2015 1,163 10,562 9.1 Change over year (%) 1 +17 +24 +6

Total NI/ROI/GB/Other Overseas 2011 5,600 21,048 3.8 2012 5,412 19,288 3.6 2013 5,623 20,733 3.7 2014 6,137 22,003 3.6 2015 5,869 22,565 3.8 Change over year (%) 1 -4 +3 +7

Source: CHS

Notes:

122 1) Percentage change calculated using unrounded figures 2) Great Britain (GB) includes the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man 3) Total may not sum due to rounding 4) The estimates may be subject to revision due to improvements to the survey/analysis methodology or the inclusion of data returned after the publication date.

GB includes Channel Islands and IOM

Data correct as at 26/05/2016

123 * * * * (1) 42% Bed occupancy * * * * 2011 57% Room occupancy * * * * (1) 47% Bed occupancy * * * * 2012 64% Room occupancy * (1) 46% 22% 24% 20% Bed occupancy * 2013 64% 30% 31% 29% Room Room occupancy * (1) 46% 21% 24% 18% Bed occupancy * 2014 65% 28% 34% 23% Room occupancy * (2) Bed 14/15 5 %points 5 1 %points 1 change -1 %points -1 -7 %points -7 occupancy * 14/15 Room Room 2 %points 2 1 %points 1 change -1 %points -1 Difference 2014/2015 Difference -11 %points -11 occupancy (1) 50% 20% 18% 19% 32% Bed occupancy 2015 67% 27% 23% 24% 46% Room occupancy Data correct as at 26/05/2016 at as correct Data Contents Notes Background Date to Year Accommodation Bed and Guest & Breakfast Guesthouse, Hotel, Ireland Northern 1.9 Table Hotels Guesthouse, Guest Accom and B&Bs Guesthouses B&Bs Guest Accommodation Accommodation Guest (1)Pleasebed-space note occupancy figures have calculatedbeen excluding those who havebreakdown provided not appropriate the information of Please (2) differences note between calculated years are using figures unrounded guesthouses, for B&Bs Information is guestand accommodation only available January onwards2013 changea to due infrom survey the sampling methodology

124 * (1) 2,671,638 Beds sold * 2011 1,611,936 Rooms sold * (1) 2,907,854 Beds sold * 2012 1,768,685 Rooms sold (1) 553,946 2,896,193 Beds sold 2013 338,769 1,796,703 Rooms sold Rooms (1) 533,552 2,939,483 Beds sold 2014 315,716 1,849,521 Rooms sold (2) -4% 10% 14/15 change Beds sold Beds sold 3% -8% 14/15 change Difference 2014/2015 Difference Rooms sold sold Rooms (1) 511,267 3,232,877 Beds sold 2015 289,247 1,897,876 Rooms sold Contents Notes Background and 2011-2015 beds rooms sold Accommodation Bed and Guest & Breakfast Guesthouse, Hotel, Ireland Northern 1.10 Table Hotels Guesthouse, Guest Accom and B&Bs 26/05/2016 at as correct Data (1)Pleasebed-space note occupancy figures have calculatedbeen excluding those who havebreakdown provided not appropriate the information of Please (2) differences note between calculated years are using figures unrounded guesthouses, for B&Bs Information is guestand accommodation only available January onwards2013 changea to due infrom survey the sampling methodology

125 Contents Background Notes Table 1.1: Number of Visits by Attraction Category 2015

Visitors Attraction Category (Thousands) (%)

Country Parks/Parks/Forests 7,510 43% Gardens 709 4% Historic Properties 1,459 8% Museum/Art Galleries 1,583 9% Visitor/Heritage Centres 3,458 20% Wildlife/Zoo/Nature Reserve 891 5% Workplaces 28 <1% Places of Worship 295 2% Other 1,548 9%

Total (225 Responding attractions) 17,481 100%

* Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding

Data correct as at 26/05/2016

126 Contents Background Notes Table 1.12: Top Ten Participating Visitor Attractions 2015 (excluding country parks/parks/forests/gardens) 2

Number of Visitors (Thousands) % Change 1 Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2014-2015)

1 Giant's Causeway World Heritage Site 533 524 754 788 851 8% 2 Titanic Belfast n/a 665 604 634 622 -2% 3 Ulster Museum 471 595 416 466 465 0% 4 Derry's Walls 278 281 411 370 381 3% 5 W5 who what where when why 251 328 297 324 372 15% 6 Carrick - A - Rede Rope Bridge 243 276 263 323 354 9% 7 The Guildhall 35 n/a 269 299 313 5% 8 Belfast Zoo 283 259 236 253 247 -2% 9 Oxford Island National Nature Reserve 319 297 314 217 221 2% 10 Mount Stewart House and Gardens 151 157 158 155 185 19%

Notes 1. Percentage change calculated using unrounded figures 2. It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table * Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding

Data correct as at 26/05/2016

127 Contents Background Notes Table 1.13: Number of cruise ships and maximum passenger and crew numbers to Northern Ireland by port 2012-2015

Northern Ireland - Rolling 12 Belfast Londonderry Other (1) Northern Ireland months Passengers Passengers Passengers Passengers Month Year Ships Passengers Crew Ships &Crew Ships &Crew Ships &Crew Ships &Crew

January 2012 ------Feb - Jan n/a n/a February 2012 ------Mar - Feb n/a n/a March 2012 ------Apr - Mar n/a n/a April 2012 3 3,050 973 - - - - 3 4,023 May - Apr n/a n/a May 2012 7 9,847 3,946 1 500 - - 8 14,293 Jun - May n/a n/a June 2012 8 10,802 4,896 - - - - 8 15,698 Jul - Jun n/a n/a July 2012 9 10,684 4,351 2 1,593 - - 11 16,628 Aug - Jul n/a n/a August 2012 11 10,152 4,669 2 670 - - 13 15,491 Sep - Aug n/a n/a September 2012 7 6,972 3,374 3 1,986 - - 10 12,332 Oct - Sep n/a n/a October 2012 ------Nov - Oct n/a n/a November 2012 ------Dec - Nov n/a n/a December 2012 ------Jan - Dec 53 78,465

Year 2012 45 51,507 22,209 8 4,749 - - 53 78,465 53 78,465

January 2013 ------Feb - Jan 53 78,465 February 2013 ------Mar - Feb 53 78,465 March 2013 ------Apr - Mar 53 78,465 April 2013 1 49 25 1 49 - - 2 123 May - Apr 52 74,565 May 2013 15 19,850 7,925 1 500 - - 16 28,275 Jun - May 60 88,547 June 2013 5 6,546 2,625 1 800 - - 6 9,971 Jul - Jun 58 82,820 July 2013 13 15,416 5,615 1 200 - - 14 21,231 Aug - Jul 61 87,423 August 2013 14 20,490 8,812 - - - - 14 29,302 Sep - Aug 62 101,234 September 2013 6 7,038 3,031 1 208 - - 7 10,277 Oct - Sep 59 99,179 October 2013 3 2,700 960 - - - - 3 3,660 Nov - Oct 62 102,839 November 2013 ------Dec - Nov 62 102,839 December 2013 ------Jan - Dec 62 102,839

Year 2013 57 72,089 28,993 5 1,757 - - 62 102,839 62 102,839

January 2014 ------Feb - Jan 62 102,839 February 2014 ------Mar - Feb 62 102,839 March 2014 1 750 300 - - - - 1 1,050 Apr - Mar 63 103,889 April 2014 - - - 1 418 - - 1 418 May - Apr 62 104,184 May 2014 13 19,461 8,071 - - - - 13 27,532 Jun - May 59 103,441 June 2014 8 6,947 2,865 1 1,083 - - 9 10,895 Jul - Jun 62 104,365 July 2014 7 12,904 5,707 - - 1 450 8 19,061 Aug - Jul 56 102,195 August 2014 20 23,851 10,631 2 2,171 - - 22 36,653 Sep - Aug 64 109,546 September 2014 11 12,673 5,749 1 372 - - 12 18,794 Oct - Sep 69 118,063 October 2014 2 3,174 1,486 - - - - 2 4,660 Nov - Oct 68 119,063 November 2014 ------Dec - Nov 68 119,063 December 2014 1 730 360 - - - - 1 1,090 Jan - Dec 69 120,153 - - Year 2014 63 80,490 35,169 5 4,044 1 450 69 120,153 69 120,153

January 2015 ------Feb - Jan 69 120,153 February 2015 ------Mar - Feb 69 120,153 March 2015 1 550 225 - - - - 1 775 Apr - Mar 69 119,878 April 2015 ------May - Apr 68 119,460 May 2015 12 12,099 5,472 1 130 - - 13 17,701 Jun - May 68 109,629 June 2015 6 6,869 2,872 1 1,083 1 72 8 10,896 Jul - Jun 67 109,630 July 2015 13 24,171 10,496 1 1,305 2 1,140 16 37,112 Aug - Jul 75 127,681 August 2015 16 24,014 10,590 2 1,905 - - 18 36,509 Sep - Aug 71 127,537 September 2015 5 7,739 3,155 1 950 - - 6 11,844 Oct - Sep 65 120,587 October 2015 4 4,940 2,000 - - - - 4 6,940 Nov - Oct 67 122,867 November 2015 1 900 300 - - - - 1 1,200 Dec - Nov 68 124,067 December 2015 ------Jan - Dec 67 122,977

Year 2015 6 5,373 3 1,212 67 122,977 67 122,977

Belfast Figures are obtained from Cruise Belfast Londonderry Figures are obtained from Cruise North West Cruise ships that include more than one Northern Ireland port in their itinerary will be included in the figures for each port at which they dock (1) July 2014 - 1 cruise ship at Warrenpoint June 2015 - 1 cruise ship anchored off Bangor. Passengers/crew brought ashore by ship's tender. July 2015 - 2 cruise ships anchored off Bangor. Passengers/crew brought ashore by ship's tender.

Data correct as at 26/05/2016

128 Contents Background Notes Table 2.1 Estimated(1,2) number of overnight trips, nights and expenditure in NI (all visitors) by quarter, 2011-2015

Overnight Nights during Expenditure during Year Quarter Trips the Overnight the Overnight Trips Q1 655,925 2,442,173 114,342,274 Q2 1,054,505 3,676,673 161,497,603 2011 Q3 1,319,453 5,440,176 215,455,610 Q4 937,878 3,130,976 149,752,192 Q1 726,593 2,319,680 100,618,482 Q2 1,067,691 3,732,395 191,416,092 2012 Q3 1,194,436 4,490,694 218,065,459 Q4 1,035,785 3,314,994 176,221,817 Q1 866,309 2,744,650 127,280,212 Q2 1,104,052 3,602,145 187,874,431 2013 Q3 1,234,911 5,001,853 240,412,409 Q4 864,169 3,045,188 159,623,882 Q1 823,328 2,487,221 144,529,994 Q2 1,214,967 4,449,279 199,263,772 2014 Q3 1,391,964 4,847,525 254,242,089 Q4 1,082,887 3,298,346 146,866,441 Q1 960,115 2,977,548 144,889,249 Q2 1,214,356 3,997,038 202,319,368 2015 Q3 1,294,757 5,251,216 253,832,001 Q4 1,062,390 3,244,967 163,025,654

Further breakdowns of this data can be found in the found at: Northern Ireland Tourism Statistics microdata Q2 2010-Q2 2014

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

129 Contents Background Notes Figure 1: Breakdown by place of origin 2015

Outside 15% Outside UK & Republi 7% Ireland, 15% Great B 29% Norther 49%

Republic of Ireland, 7%

Northern Ireland, 49%

Great Britain, 29%

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

130 Contents Background Notes Figure 2: Change in number of overnight visitors 2014-2015

Northern Ireland (-104K)

Great Bri 121,000 Outside U 55,000 Republic -53,000 Northern -104,000 Republic of Ireland (-53K)

Outside UK & Ireland (+55K)

Great Britain (+121K)

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 Change in number of overnight visitors (Thousands)

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

131 Contents Background Notes Figure 3: Annual external overnight trips to Northern Ireland (1959-2015) External visits Overnight Trips (Millions) 1959 633000 2.5 2.3m external overnight trips in 1960 2015 - highest 1961 on record 1962 Good Friday 1963 704600 Agreement 1964 2 1965 1966 1967 1080000 1968 1139000 2007-9 Great Recession 1969 1066000 Troubles Start 1.5 1970 977000 1971 670000 1972 435000 633,000 1973 486800 external overnight 1974 486800 1 trips to NI 1975 529600 in 1959 1976 432000 1977 503200 1978 628100 Belfast Harbour Airport opens 1979 728000 1983 1980 710000 0.5 Aldergrove opens 1981 588000 for civilian flights 1963 1982 712000 1983 865300 1984 907800 1985 862500 0 1986 824100 1987 942800 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1988 930400 1989 1090600 Sources: 1959-2010 Northern Ireland Tourist Board; 2010 onwards Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency 1990 1152800 1991 1186100 Note: There have been minor changes to the methodology and sources used to measure external overnight trips to Northern Ireland, but the graph still paints a 1992 1252500 representative picture of the trend over time. Figures for residents of the Republic of Ireland have been included from 2000 onwards (RoI make up approximately 13% of the total ). This is the longest timescale available as data for NI tourism begins in 1959. 7 1993 1262000 1994 1294000 1995 1557000 Data correct as at 12/08/2016 1996 1436000 1997 1415000 1998 1477000 1999 1655000 2000 1480000 2001 1511000 2002 1615000 2003 1896000 2004 1985000 2005 1972000 2006 1979000 2007 2107000 2008 2076000 2009 1918000 2010 1809000 2011 1931000 2012 2006000 2013 2089000 2014 2179000 2015 2301000

132 Contents Background Notes Figure 4: Reason for overnight trips in Northern Ireland 2015

January - December 2014 Holiday 1,920,057 43% Visiting friends/ relatives 1,923,372 43% Business 461,782 10% Other 209,894 Other5% 5% Total Overnight Trips 4,515,105Business 10%

Holiday 42%

Visiting friends/ relatives 43%

Visiting friends/ Total Overnight Holiday relatives Business Other Trips Overnight trips 1,939,259 1,924,022 458,623 209,714 4,531,618

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

133 Contents Background Notes Figure 5: Hotel room nights sold (Q1 2011 - Q4 2015)

Hotel room nights sold (thousands) 600

2011 1.612011million 2012 20132012 1.772014million 2015 2013 1.80 million 2014 1.85 million 2015 1.90 million q1 333,094 346,956 347,859 382,491 408,166 q2 429,840 487,028 476,390 502,280 534,731 500q3 476,487 536,296 546,019 542,822 543,104 q4 372,514 398,405 426,435 421,928 411,875

400

300

200

100

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Northern Ireland Occupancy Survey of Hotels, Guesthouses, Bed&Breakfasts and Guest Accommodation

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

134 Contents Background Notes Chart 6: Top 10 Responding Visitor Attractions (excluding Country Parks/Parks/Forests & Gardens) 2015 (Thousands)

Mount Stewart Oxford Island ↑19% ↑2% Giant's Causeway Belfast Zoo ↑8% 2% 185k 221k 851k 247k

313k

Top 10 Visitor Titanic Belfast  2% Carrick-a-Rede Attractions NI Rope Bridge 354k 2015 622k ↑9%

372k

W5 465k ↑15% 381k

Ulster Museum 0%

Notes It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from these charts

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

135 Contents Background Notes Figure 7: Employee jobs in tourism related industries 2013

Accommodation for 17% Food & beverage sOther, 7%57% Transport 6% Accommodation for Sporting & recreatio 12% visitors, 17% OtherSporting & recreational 7% activities, 12%

Transport, 6% 58,000 tourism employee jobs

Food & beverage service activities, 57%

(2) Figures derived from the Census of Employment 2013 (Economic & Labour Markets Statistics Branch, NISRA)

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

136 Contents Background Notes Figure 8: Proportion of external overnight trips by reason in UK, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, 2015

Prop. (%) of trips - reason, country 60%

8 million external visitors (+13%) 36 million external visitors (+5%) 2 million external visitors (+6%)

50% Holiday Visiting frBusiness Other Republic 46% 27% 17% 10% 40% Great Brit 38% 29% 24% 8% Northern 32% 48% 15% 4% Holiday Visiting friends / relatives 30% Business Other

20% % Change (2014-2015)

10%

0% Republic of Ireland Great Britain Northern Ireland

(1) All surveys are based on sample surveys and therefore have an associated degree of sampling error. Information on confidence intervals where these are available and sample sizes are provided in the background notes. (2) Northern Ireland figures derived from the Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS) conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), the Survey of Overseas Travellers (SOT) conducted on behalf of Fáilte Ireland, the Household Travel Survey (HTS) conducted by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (CHS) conducted by NISRA.

(3) Great Britain figures derived from the International Passegner Survey, Office for National Statistics

(4) Republic of Ireland figures derived from the Passenger Card Inquiry, Central Statistics Office

Data correct as at 12/08/2016

137 Background Notes 1. This report presents a summary of tourism statistics for Northern Ireland. More detailed data are available on our website at this link. The next tourism statistics release will be in July for the 12 months ending March 2015. These results will be made available online in a tabular format only.

2. Tourism data is derived from a variety of sources, more information on these sources can also be found at this link. Tourism estimates are designed to provide timely data on tourism activity in Northern Ireland. The estimates may be subject to revision due to improvements to the survey/analysis methodology or the inclusion of data returned after the publication date. The figures in this document are the most up-to-date available at the time of publication. Northern Ireland Tourism statistics have undergone a series of organisational changes and revisions to methodology. Information on the sources, the data quality of each source and any revisions or changes in methodology can be accessed at this link.

3. The production of tourism statistics is conducted in line with the UK Statistics Authority Code of Practice for Official Statistics. This means that the statistics a. meet identified user needs, b. are well explained and readily accessible, c. are produced according to sound methods, and d. are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest

4. The measures reported in this report are the primary means of monitoring progress towards Programme for Government (PfG) targets related to tourism. The DfE (formerly DETI) Corporate Plan shows the target to increase tourism revenue to £800m and visitor numbers to 4.4m by December 2015. The results published suggest that the target on visitor numbers has been met. Tourism revenue from external visitors did increase but that from NI residents fell. The increase in trips taken by NI residents outside fothe UK and Ireland is reflected in a fall in trips taken within NI and will have had an impact on tourism revenue. The strength of the pound in currency exchange is likely to have been a major influence during 2015.

5. NISRA uses the Survey of Overseas Travellers run by Fáilte Ireland to gain information on the overnight trips to Northern Ireland who exit through Republic of Ireland ports. Information on Northern Ireland overnight trips is also now collected through a separate survey carried out by Central Statistics Office Ireland. NISRA researched the two sources and presented and agreed the findings at the all Ireland tourism statistics meeting with all relevant providers and users of the data. The findings can be accessed at link.

6. Due to the nature of household surveys in Northern Ireland, users should be aware that statistics on overnight trips in Northern Ireland residents aged under 16 are excluded. NISRA is in the process of changing the methodology of data collection to capture this information from April 2015. NISRA will explore the impact and will update users and include this group in the future. Users can see this on the Tourism Statistics Plan at this link.

7. While the statistics are produced in as timely a way as possible, it is realised that early indicators would be useful. Early tourism indicators are published at this link and are updated monthly.

8. Tourism statistics systems are designed to collect information for Northern Ireland as a whole. However, respondents do indicate where they stay during these overnight trips allowing for some analysis at Local Area level. The most recent 2014 results published at this level can be found at this link and a data visualisation tool is available at this link. The 2015 Local Government results will be published in July 2016.

9. The estimates in this bulletin are derived from sample surveys and are therefore subject to sampling errors. Sampling errors are determined both by the sample design and by the sample size. Generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the smaller the associated sampling error. Confidence intervals around the estimates of all overnight trips in Northern Ireland stands at +/- 7% for the year (associated expenditure at +/- 11%). Note: based on the survey design confidence intervals for domestic tourism trips stands at +/-10% and external trips at +/-5%. Information on confidence intervals in Northern Ireland tourism statistics can be accessed at this link.

10. This report includes estimates from Census of Employment on the number of jobs in ‘tourism characteristic industries’. The latest tourism characteristic industries breakdown available is for 2013 as the Census of Employment is carried out every two years. More information on the Census of Employment, the timing of the release of 2015 data and the associated methodology can be accessed at this link .

11. The vast majority of cruise ships visit Northern Ireland on a single day basis, docking in the morning and then leaving in the evening. Thus under UN definitions cruise ship visits are considered day- trips and excluded from the overnight trips figures outlined in section 1. To address this statistics from Visit Belfast, Cruise North West and Newry & Mourne Council relating to Warrenpoint port are included. Cruise ships can also drop anchor and tender passengers ashore at other parts of Northern Ireland (Bangor & Portrush).

12. These tables were revised on 18th August 2016 due to a revised weighting mechanism for the Household Travel Survey, conducted by Central Statistics Office regarding overnight visitors Northern Ireland from the Republic of Ireland. More information can be found at this link. 13. Follow NISRA on Twitter and Facebook.

138 Statistical Theme: People and Places Year of Data: Data Subset: Tourism 2011-2015 Dataset Title: Northern Ireland Visitor Attraction Survey Coverage: Northern Ireland Source: Tourism Statistics Branch (NISRA) Sarah McAuley 028 9052 9434 Contact: [email protected] National Statistics Data? No

Methodology Annually attractions across Northern Ireland are invited to participate in the Visitor Attraction Survey by means of a self-completion questionnaire. The list of attractions is obtained from Tourism Northern Ireland (TNI). Respondents to the survey are asked to classify the attractions from a given list of categories and the classifications which they provided are used in the analysis. Participants are also given the option for their figures to remain confidential.

For the purpose of the survey a visitor attraction is defined as: ‘... an attraction where it is feasible to charge admission for the sole purpose of sightseeing. The attraction must be a permanently established excursion destination, a primary purpose of which is to allow access for entertainment, interest, or education; rather than being primarily a retail outlet or a venue for sporting, theatrical, or film Details regarding individual attractions (description, address, contact details etc.) may be obtained by visiting: www.discovernorthernireland.com Where there is reference to ‘visits’ to attractions, unless specified as ‘visitors external to NI’ this refers to all visits made to an attraction, regardless of the country of residence of the visitor, therefore including Northern Ireland residents. For the purpose of analysis, the attractions have been classified by types (e.g. country parks/parks/forests, gardens, historic properties, museums/art galleries, visitor/heritage centres, wildlife/zoo, workplaces and places of worship). The procedure excludes establishments whose main component is a retail or leisure facility. It is, however, recognised that these facilities do offer a significant service to both the home market and out-of-state visitors.

Abbreviations: LA = Local Authority G = Government Department/ Agency NT = National Trust OTC = Other Trust/Charity O = Other P = Private

Visitor figures: Statistics presented herein are given in good faith on the basis of information provided by proprietors of attractions.

It should be noted that respondents to the survey are given the opportunity to revise data supplied in the previous year. Counting methods for individual Attractions may also change from year to year which might impact on results and patterns over time. It should also be noted that due to closures,renovations or non response data may not be available for some attractions for certain years.

Data for years prior to 2010 may be available from Tourism Northern Ireland (TNI).

The latest information on visitors to Northern Ireland attractions during 2015 can be found at: Northern Ireland Annual Tourism Statistics 2015 publication

Data Revisions

The information here-in may be subject to revision due to improvements to the survey/analysis methodology or the inclusion of data returned after the publication date. The figures presented in this bulletin are the most up-to-date available at the time of publication. Full information on the revision of tourism statistics can be found at: Tourism Statistics Branch Revisions Policy

Disclosure Control Methods Some data has been suppressed as the sample size is not large enough to supply a reliable estimate. Cells are suppressed if there are less than 5 establishments

Quality Issues No data quality issues exist.

Geographic Referencing Northern Ireland and regional breakdowns as follows: North West: - Derry, Limavady Mid West: - Cookstown, Magherafelt, Omagh, Strabane South West: - Dungannon, Fermangh North East: - Ballymena, Ballymoney, Coleraine, Larne, Moyle South East: - Ards, Armagh, Banbridge, Craigavon, Down, Newry & Mourne Belfast & Castlereagh: - Belfast, Castlereagh Mid East: - Antrim, Carrickfergus, Lisburn, Newtownabbey, North Down

Disclosure Control Methods Some data has been suppressed as the sample size is not large enough to supply a reliable estimate. Cells are suppressed if there are less than 5 establishments

Quality Issues No data quality issues exist.

139 List of Tables Table 1.1 Method of Recording Visitor Numbers, 2015 (Percentage) Table 1.2 Ownership of Attractions 2015 (Percentage) Table 1.3 Number of Visits by Attraction Category 2015 Table 1.4 Number of Visits by Ownership 2015 Table 1.5 Top Ten Visitor Attractions 2015 (excluding country parks/parks/forests/gardens) Table 1.6 Top Ten Participating Country Parks/Parks/Forests/Gardens) 2015 Table 1.7 Proportion of Attraction Visitors by Place of Residence and Attraction Category 2014 Table 1.8 Admission Charges to Responding Attractions 2011 - 2015 Table 1.9 Employment at Responding Visitor Attractions 2015 Table 1.10 Visitor Numbers for Country Parks/Parks/Forests 2009 - 2015 Table 1.11 Visitor Numbers for Historic Properties 2009 - 2015 Table 1.12 Visitor Numbers for Museums & Art Galleries 2009 - 2015 Table 1.13 Visitor Numbers for Visitor Heritage Centres 2009 - 2015 Table 1.14 Visitor Numbers for Workplaces 2009 - 2015 Table 1.15 Visitor Numbers for Wildlife/Zoo/Nature Reserve 2009 - 2015 Table 1.16 Visitor Numbers for Places of Worship 2009 - 2015 Table 1.17 Visitor Numbers for Gardens 2009 - 2015 Table 1.18 Visitor Numbers for Other 2009 - 2015

List of Charts Chart 1.1 Responding Attractions by Category Type 2015 Chart 1.2 Adult/Child Ratios of Responding Attractions 2015 Chart 1.3 Number of Visitors to Attractions by Month 2015 (Thousands) Chart 1.4 Number of Attractions Open by Month 2015 Chart 1.5 Top 10 Responding Attractions 2015 Chart 1.6 Top 10 Responding Country Parks/Parks/Forests/Gardens 2015 Chart 1.7 Employment Type Chart 1.8 Overall Top 20 Responding Attractions 2015

140 Contents Table 1.1: Method of Recording Visitor Numbers, 2015 (Percentage)

Method used to record data (%) Ticket or group bookings 29% Manual count 23% Mechanical or electronic 24% Estimate 17% Sample Count 6% Other 2% Total (122 responding attractions) 100%

* Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

141 Contents Table 1.2: Ownership of Attractions 2015 (Percentage)

Ownership (%) Local Authority 26% Government Department/Agency 23% National Trust 9% Other Trust/Charity 15% Other 8% Private 19% Total (225 Responding attractions) 100%

* Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

142 Contents Table 1.3: Number of Visits by Attraction Category 2015

* Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

143 Contents Table 1.4: Number of Visits by Ownership 2015

Number of Visitors Ownership Thousands (%) Local Authority 5,558 32% Government Department/Agency 6,112 35% National Trust 2,348 13% Other Trust/Charity 1,805 10% Other 801 5% Private 857 5% Total (225 Responding Attractions) 17,481 100%

* Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

144 Contents Table 1.5: Top Ten Participating Visitor Attractions 2015 (excluding country parks/parks/forests/gardens) 2

Number of Visitors (Thousands) Change 2014 - 1 Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 (%) 1 Giant's Causeway World Heritage Site 533 524 754 788 851 8% 2 Titanic Belfast n/a 665 604 634 622 -2% 3 Ulster Museum 471 595 416 466 465 0% 4 Derry's Walls 278 281 411 370 381 3% 5 W5 who what where when why 251 328 297 324 372 15% 6 Carrick - A - Rede Rope Bridge 243 276 263 323 354 9% 7 The Guildhall 35 n/a 269 299 313 5% 8 Belfast Zoo 283 259 236 253 247 -2% 9 Oxford Island National Nature Reserve 319 297 314 217 221 2% 10 Mount Stewart House and Gardens 151 157 158 155 185 19% Notes 1. Percentage change calculated using unrounded figures 2. It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table * Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

145 Contents Table 1.6: Top Ten Participating Country Parks/Parks/Forests/Gardens) 2015

Number of Visitors (Thousands) Change 2014 - Country Park/Park/Forest/Garden 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 (%) Lagan Valley Regional Park (inc Lagan 1 Valley Towpath) 1,072 1,088 1,132 1,347 1,286 2% 2 Wallace Park ― ― ― ― 1,100 n/a 3 The Peace Bridge 340 915 1,243 1,071 981 -8% 4 Crawfordsburn Country Park 770 775 800 827 513 -38% 5 Antrim Castle Gardens & Clotsworthy House ― 112 138 221 357 62% 6 Dungannon Park 142 125 224 332 291 -12% 7 Sir Thomas and Lady Dixon Park 230 NA 300 300 270 -10% 8 Roe Valley Country Park 280 250 300 250 250 0% 9 Colin Glen Adventure Park ― ― ― ― 250 n/a 10 Delamont Country Park 577 577 247 221 212 -4% Notes 5,510 1. Percentage change calculated using unrounded figures 2. It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table * Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

146 Contents Table 1.7: Proportion of Attraction Visitors by Place of Residence and Attraction Category 2015

Estimated Proportion of Attraction Category Visitors External to NI (%) Country Parks/Parks/Forests 19% Gardens 30% Historic Properties 26% Museums/Art Galleries 28% Visitor/Heritage Centres 65% Wildlife/Zoo/Nature Reserve 36% Workplaces 14% Places of Worship 33% Other 58% All Responding Attractions (N=100) 34% Notes 1. Sample size too small to provide a reliable estimate Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

147 Contents Table 1.8 Admission Charges to Responding Attractions 2011 - 2015

Adult Child Price of Admission 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Maximum £11.20 £17.50 £14.75 £15.50 £15.50 £5.70 £7.00 £7.25 £7.25 £8.50 Minimum £2.00 £1.00 £1.00 £1.60 £1.00 £1.50 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £1.00 Mean £4.60 £5.50 £4.75 £5.13 £5.74 £3.50 £2.80 £2.54 £2.88 £3.89 Total number of attractions supplying information (N=40) Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

148 Contents Table 1.9: Employment at Responding Visitor Attractions 2015

Employment % of all Employees Full Time Permanent 24% Part Time Permanent 12% Full Time Seasonal 3% Part Time Seasonal 22% Unpaid Volunteers 39% Total number of attractions supplying information (N = 114) Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

149 Contents Table 1.10: Visitor Numbers for Country Parks/Parks/Forests 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 - 2015 Owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (%) G Castlewellan Forest Park* 122,590 ― 119,974 135,421 136,522 1% LA Cave Hill Country Park 110,000 100,000 100,000 91,000 95,000 4% G Colin Glen Adventure Park ― ― ― ― 250,000 n/a LA Colin Glen Forest Park ― ― ― ― 120,000 n/a G Crawfordsburn Country Park 770,000 775,000 800,000 826,893 513,415 -38% LA Delamont Country Park 577,165 263,311 246,823 220,783 211,859 -4% G Drum Manor Forest Park* 15,500 14,649 10,285 11,777 12,520 6% LA Dungannon Park 125,000 142,426 224,060 331,670 291,070 -12% G Glenariff Forest Park* 36,287 36,287 28,356 33,985 22,741 -33% G Gortin Glen Forest Park* 6,713 6,240 4,232 4,566 2,554 -44% G Gosford Forest Park* ― ― 51606 58,081 47,051 -19% LA Kilbroney Park 81,640 85,794 114,586 94,838 122,279 29% LA Kinnego Marina 343,927 158,448 174,365 216,000 209,027 -3% G Lagan Valley Regional Park (Inc Lagan Tow Path) 1,071,655 1,088,240 1,254,414 1,257,354 1,285,963 2% NT Lisnabreeny ― ― ― ― 50,000 n/a G Ness Country Park 25000 20000 25,000 30,000 30,000 0% G Peatlands Park 95000 100000 90000 95,000 126,123 33% G Portglenone Forest Park* ― ― 9,222 8,859 7,068 -20% G Redburn Country Park ― ― ― ― 50,440 n/a G Roe Valley Country Park 280,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 0% G Scrabo Country Park 200,000 155,913 161,412 187,358 196,014 5% LA Shaftesbury Park ― ― 65000 64,000 63,800 0% G Sir Thomas and Lady Dixon Park 230,000 ― 300,000 300,000 270,000 -10% G The Peace Bridge 339,858 914,739 1,242,538 1,070,807 981,053 -8% G Tollymore Forest Park* ― ― 134,707 130,820 131,431 0% LA Wallace Park ― ― ― ― 1,100,000 n/a OTC William McCrum Park ― ― ― ― 6,000 n/a * Please note the visitor number provided for these parks is for fee paying visitors only It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

150 Contents Table 1.11: Visitor Numbers for Historic Properties 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 - Owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 (%) NT Ardress House 6,900 6,500 7,000 6,889 7,200 5% LA Arthur Cottage & Interpretative Centre ― ― ― 1,525 1,300 -15% G Ballycopeland Windmill 1,294 1,376 934 ― 361 n/a P Ballywalter Park 2,500 1,650 1,850 1,450 -22% LA Belfast City Hall 68,302 73,668 59,465 63,970 62,363 -3% P Benvarden Garden 4,200 3,600 2,700 2,560 2,850 11% LA Bronte Homeland Interpretive Centre 565 ― ― ― 335 n/a G Carrickfergus Castle 67,501 58,422 66,559 70,063 53,692 -23% NT Castle Coole 35,282 36,002 43,597 40,943 38,608 -6% NT Castle Ward House and Demesne 125,337 160,092 136,427 129,220 135,986 5% LA Cockle Row Cottages 11,368 11,089 18,587 21,639 17,120 -21% NT Coney Island ― ― 2,006 2,000 2,000 0% G Crumlin Road Gaol ― ― 136,500 168,694 170,000 1% P Dan Winter's House 3,530 3,197 3,925 4,160 3,437 -17% G Devenish Island Monastic Site 45,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 33,000 -18% G Dundrum Castle 10,526 12,177 38,100 ― 23,884 n/a G Dunluce Castle 59,388 48,105 44,317 ― 59,000 n/a NT Florence Court 40,314 40,692 38,353 42,394 41,010 -3% LA Grant Ancestral House 6,000 ― 4,000 3,150 2,976 -6% G Grey Abbey ― 11,819 16,254 14,896 14,912 0% G Hillsborough Fort ― ― ― 32,841 25,884 -21% G Kilclief Castle ― 653 629 ― 348 n/a NT Mount Stewart House and Gardens 150,517 157,125 157,728 154,602 184,666 19% G Narrow Water Castle 778 ― 3,011 3,164 2,755 -13% G Nendrum Monastic Site 5,889 6,834 7,506 6,835 4,764 -30% P Shane's Castle 40,000 35,000 35,000 40,000 40,000 0% NT The Argory 32,500 33,500 35,096 36,483 38,000 4% G Tullaghoge Fort ― 10,500 12,500 ― 14,000 n/a G Tully Castle 15,000 16,500 18,000 18,000 16,000 -11% P Verbal Arts Centre ― ― ― ― 26,696 n/a G White Island 21,000 17,000 18,000 19,500 19,500 0% OTC Wilson Ancestral Homestead 105 269 239 ― 182 n/a

It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

151 Contents Table 1.12: Visitor Numbers for Museums & Art Galleries 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 - 2015 Owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (%) LA Andrew Jackson Cottage and US Rangers Centre 1,153 1,379 1,421 2,167 1,927 -11% LA Ards Arts Centre 29,308 33,332 32,653 ― 27,500 n/a G Armagh County Museum 12,851 13,099 9,452 10,001 11,147 11% P Armagh Planetarium 35,700 41,011 47,706 49,957 48,727 -2% LA Ballycastle Museum 2,678 3,018 2,379 3,380 3,473 3% OTC Belfast Exposed Gallery 12,831 12,868 12,471 15,974 13,631 -15% OTC Belfast Music Exhibition and Tour ― ― 5,200 ― 5,500 n/a LA Coleraine Museum 1,833 2,420 2,771 4,096 2,440 -40% LA Craigavon Museum 12,000 13,054 4,500 8,465 n/a LA Down Arts Centre ― 32,082 35,891 48,185 58,237 21% OTC Downpatrick & County Down Railway Society 7,245 9,033 8,507 7,815 7,316 -6% LA FE McWilliam Gallery & Studio 43,069 50,466 ― ― 42,498 n/a O Flame Gasworks Museum 1,969 1,421 2,106 2,186 2,911 33% P Garvagh Museum & Heritage Centre ― ― 1,000 1,400 950 -32% LA Green Lane Museum 5,003 5,078 5,529 5,400 5,097 -6% LA Irish Linen Centre & Lisburn Museum ― 115,262 74,205 82,759 95,028 15% LA Island Arts Centre 28,970 66,541 72,838 68,764 90,000 31% LA Larne Museum 5,063 4,489 3,725 3,619 3,824 6% LA Mid Antrim Museum at the Braid 29,348 34,766 24,729 34,972 26,111 -25% OTC Milford House Collection 900 1,200 1,500 1,200 2,000 67% O Millenium Court Arts Centre 12,072 15,302 16,552 16,602 17,317 4% OTC Museum of Free Derry 16,760 18,658 21,313 18,362 13,434 -27% G Naughton Gallery at Queens ― 4,570 10,653 ― 6,500 n/a LA Newry and Mourne Museum 35,591 34,719 34,251 34,889 34,762 0% P No. 5 Vicars' Hill 3,755 3,892 3,755 3,962 3,582 -10% LA North Down Museum 59,378 69,148 80,034 78,264 74,139 -5% G Police Museum 2,362 1,868 1,519 1,305 1,084 -17% OTC Royal Ulster Rifles Museum 889 883 1,567 2,889 3,022 5% P The Bog Museum ― 5,800 5,000 ― 3,000 n/a LA The Higher Bridges Gallery 7,100 11,000 8,200 9,800 7,050 -28% P The Lodge Studio 200 200 200 200 200 0% G Ulster American Folk Park 138,418 145,051 134,924 130,434 122,947 -6% G Ulster Folk and Transport Museum 201,138 176,551 150,852 173,188 169,173 -2% G Ulster Museum 471,451 594,897 416,028 465,512 464,762 0%

152 Contents Table 1.13: Visitor Numbers for Visitor Heritage Centres 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 - 2015 (%) OTC An Creagan Visitor Centre 26,450 29,000 31,500 35,750 42,100 18% G Bellaghy Bawn 500 477 ― 950 1,000 5% P Belleek Pottery Visitor Centre 165,297 165,509 187,025 190,765 183,516 -4% P Brownlow House ― ― ― ― 15,000 n/a P Bushmills Distillery 110,000 130,000 ― 131,500 160,051 22% NT Carrick-a-Rede Rope Bridge 242,919 276,381 263,000 323,500 353,549 9% LA Carrickfergus Museum 18,114 20,305 20,113 20,739 16,605 -20% NT Crom Estate Guided Wildlife Walks 20,000 ― ― 23,018 19,000 -17% OTC Dún Uladh Cultural Heritage Centre ― ― 26,188 27,121 22,301 -18% OTC Gasyard Centre ― ― ― 120,000 132,000 10% NT Giant's Causeway World Heritage Site 533,448 523,605 753,929 788,420 851,000 8% G Greypoint Fort ― ― ― ― 14,190 n/a P Heritage Tower ― 700 900 1,000 900 -10% OTC Linen Hall Library ― 118,784 118,904 121,410 121,450 0% LA Lough Neagh Discovery Centre 93,105 ― 133,004 131,559 133,437 1% NT Patterson's Spade Mill 469 497 610 712 2,800 >100% LA Portaferry Visitor Information Centre 6,791 8,009 8,931 7,013 6,797 -3% G Portrush Coastal Zone* 40,000 40,000 63,545 61,000 31,000 -49% G Quoile Countryside Centre 18,000 15,940 18,267 ― 110,000 n/a LA Rathlin Island Boathouse Visitor's Centre 13,888 10,967 12,170 9,897 9,208 -7% G Royal Irish Fusiliers Museum 10,218 10,847 11,269 12,630 11,286 -11% OTC Seaview Heritage Glenarm ― ― ― ― 1,536 n/a P Siege Heroes Museum 9,000 7,000 8,000 2,730 3,500 28% OTC The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints 500 1,000 1,500 3,050 3,200 5% LA The Guildhall 34,823 ― 268,761 299,020 312,704 5% LA The Navan Centre and Fort 45,000 45,200 50,792 49,328 44,016 -11% OTC The Saint Patrick Centre 89,483 91,780 97,043 101,192 103,425 2% OTC Titanic Belfast ― 665,000 604,385 633,856 621,521 -2% LA Tower House and Information Centre 30,887 30,184 30,441 28,183 26,316 -7% P Watertop Open Farm 8,700 10,000 11,000 11,800 12,300 4%

It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table *Only pen July and August during 2015 Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

153 Contents Table 1.14: Visitor Numbers for Workplaces 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 - 2015 (%) P Broighter Gold ECONOMUSEE ― ― 25 150 140 -7% P Fergusons Irish Linen 1844 1833 1873 1654 1449 -12% G Movanagher Fish Farm 66 ― 200 ― 67 n/a P The Steensons Jewellery Workshop and Showroom 3,810 3,900 4,100 4,500 5,850 30% It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table Data corerect as at 26/05/2016

Table 1.15: Visitor Numbers for Wildlife/Zoo/Nature Reserve 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 - 2015 (%) P Annaginny Open Farm ― ― ― ― 3,000 n/a O Belfast Lough RSPB Reserve/Window on Wildlife 5,460 5,433 6,084 ― 15,537 n/a LA Belfast Zoo 282,857 259,359 235,986 252,566 246,945 -2% OTC Castle Espie Wetland Centre 56,565 56,243 53,571 53,400 66,175 24% P Clementsmount Fun Farm 14,897 15,000 15,300 16,026 16,000 0% G Kebble National Nature Reserve and Kinramer North Nature Reserve ― 17,000 11,000 7,000 9,000 29% LA Oxford Island National Nature Reserve 319,079 296,606 314,202 217,353 220,928 2% OTC Portmore Lough Nature Reserve 4,560 4,500 10,000 12,000 12,000 0% P Rathlin Island 82,788 37,213 41,660 37,294 38,264 3% G Riverwatch Visitor Centre and Aquarium 17,500 18,295 19,229 28,840 15,725 -45% O RSPB Seabird Centre ― ― ― ― 12,829 n/a NT The Lookout, Mount Stewart 11,928 20,000 18,111 10,000 19,352 94% OTC World of Owls 4,542 5,731 5,750 5,814 10,693 84%

154 Contents Table 1.16: Visitor Numbers for Places of Worship 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 - 2015 (%) O Armagh Roman Catholic Cathedral 9,000 9,000 ― ― 60,000 n/a OTC Bangor Abbey 634 674 757 797 1,016 27% O Clonard Monastery 3,000 2,000 3,500 4,000 8,000 100% OTC First Derry Presbyterian Church 2,000 5,650 7,000 7,000 7,400 6% P Newry Cathedral 250,000 200,000 202,000 198,800 107,900 -46% OTC Saint Augustines Church 12,500 17,834 32,500 26,077 34,536 32% O Saint Columb's Cathedral 80,534 51,698 95,407 89,160 62,124 -30% OTC St. Columba's Church, Long Tower ― ― 300 300 1,500 400% O St. Peter's Cathedral ― ― ― ― 12,500 n/a It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table Data correct as at 26/05/2016

Table 1.17: Visitor Numbers for Gardens 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 - 2015 (%) P Ballyrobert Cottage Garden & Nursery 4,500 4,975 4,900 4,980 5,410 9% O Edenvilla Park and Garden ― ― ― ― 140,074 n/a O Old Barrack House Garden ― ― 900 ― 112 n/a LA Tannaghmore Gardens and Rare Breed Animal Farm 85,000 ― 30,686 109,207 139,435 28%

155 Contents Table 1.18: Visitor Numbers for Other 2011 - 2015

Change 2014 - 2015 Owner Attraction 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (%) O Armagh Observatory 42,006 42,491 11,000 40,151 44,805 12% P Armagh Public Library 4,403 6,094 7,086 7,713 7,959 3% P Campsie Karting Centre 7,500 8,500 9,000 11,000 11,500 5% OTC Cardinal Tomas Ó Fiaich Memorial Library and Archive ― ― 10,972 ― 5,280 n/a P Derry Blue Badge Guide ― ― ― 11,000 10,000 -9% O Derry's Walls 278,141 280,922 410,870 369,783 380,876 3% LA Flowerfields Art Centre 40,000 ― 41,700 ― 39,528 n/a LA Forthill Park and Cole's Monument ― 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 0% P Funny Farm Adventures Maize Maze 8,521 7,920 8,243 ― 7,256 n/a P Kirkistown Motor Racing Circuit ― ― ― ― 3,000 n/a LA Marble Arch Caves, Global Geopark 48,449 53,118 54,616 61,143 58,000 -5% OTC Mellon Centre for Migration Studies ― 19,295 18,257 18,996 18,846 -1% P Orchard Acre Farm 1,200 900 284 250 850 >100% NT Portstewart Strand ― 159,910 150,586 110,765 138,761 25% P Spruce Meadows Activity Farm ― ― 10,000 8,000 8,000 0% O The Wee Tram ― ― ― ― 15,000 n/a P Tom Agnew Mill Pottery ― ― ― ― 20 n/a OTC W5 250,634 327,606 296,937 324,432 371,772 15%

* Please note during 2013 the counters for Armagh Observatory failed and therefore visitor numbers for 2013 reflect part of the year only. Figures for 2013 & 2014 are therefore not comparable It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from this table Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

156 Contents Chart 1.1: Responding Attractions by Category Type 2015

Wildlife/Zoo/Nature Workplaces, 3% Country Reserve, 6% Parks/Parks/Forests, 15%

Visitor/Heritage Gardens, 3% Centre, 17%

Places of Worship, 4% Historic Properties, 18%

Other, 14%

Museums/Art Galleries, 20%

Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

157 Contents Chart 1.2: Adult/Child Ratios of Responding Attractions 2015

Country Park 72% 28%

Gardens 42% 58%

Historic Properties 79% 21%

Museums/Art Galleries 54% 46%

Places of Worship 76% 24%

Visitor/Heritage Centre 79% 21%

Wildlife/Zoo/Nature Reserve 67% 33%

Workplaces 97% 3%

Other 51% 49%

adult child

Total number of attractions supplying information (N = 102) Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

158 Contents Chart 1.3: Number of Visitors to Attractions by Month 2015 (Thousands) Thousands 1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 July May April June March August January October February November December September

Total number of attractions supplying information (N = 105) Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

159 Contents Chart 1.4: Number of Attractions Open by Month 2015 July May April June March August January October February November December September

Total number of attractions supplying information (N = 111) Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

160 Contents Chart 1.5: Top 10 Responding Visitor Attractions (excluding Country Parks/Parks/Forests & Gardens) 2015 (Thousands)

Oxford Island Mount Stewart ↑2% ↑19% Giant's Causeway Belfast Zoo ↑8% 185k 2% 221k 851k 247k

313k Top 10 Visitor Attractions NI Titanic Belfast Carrick-a-Rede  2% Rope Bridge 354k 2015 622k ↑9% 372k 465k W5 381k ↑15% Ulster Museum 0%

Notes It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from these charts Data corrrect as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

161 Contents Chart 1.6: Top 10 Responding Country Parks/Parks/Forests & Gardens 2015 (Thousands)

Colin Glen Delamont Country Roe Valley Adventure Park Park 4% Country Park n/a 0% Lagan Valley Regional Park 212k Lady Dixon 250k ↑2% Park 250k 10% 1,286k 270k Dungannon Park 291k 12% Top 10 Country parks/parks/ Antrim Castle 357k Forests & Gardens Gardens & Clotworthy NI House 61% 2015 513k 1,100k

Crawforsdburn Country 981k Park 38% Wallace Park n/a

The Peace Bridge 8% Notes It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from these charts Data corrrect as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

162 Contents Chart 1.7: Employment Type 2015

Percentage 40

0 Full-time permanent Part-time permanent Full-time seasonal Part-time seasonal Unpaid volunteers

Total number of responding attractions supplying information (N = 114) Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

163 Contents Chart 1.8: Overall Top 20 Responding Attractions 2015

Visitor Numbers Attraction Name 2015 (Thousands) Lagan Valley Regional Park (Inc Lagan Tow Path) 1,286 Wallace Park 1,100 The Peace Bridge 981 Giant's Causeway World Heritage Site 851 Titanic Belfast 622 Crawfordsburn Country Park 513 Ulster Museum 465 Derry's Walls 381 W5 372 Antrim Castle Gardens and Clotworthy House 357 Carrick-a-Rede Rope Bridge 354 The Guildhall 313 Dungannon Park 291 Sir Thomas and Lady Dixon Park 270 Roe Valley Country Park 250 Colin Glen Adventure Park 250 Belfast Zoo 247 Oxford Island National Nature Reserve 221 Delamont Country Park 219 Kinnego Marina 209

Notes It should be noted that some respondents wished their visitor numbers to remain confidential and these attractions have been excluded from these charts Data correct as at 26/05/2016 Further information on survey methodology can be found on the metadata tab

(This is to cover the report from p.96-164) NIRSA: © Crown Copyright CSO: Cleared under creative commons licence 4.0 Sources: Visitors to Ireland and Northern Ireland 2014: A Statistical Profile of Tourism, People and Places Tourism data subset January – December 2015, Northern Ireland Attraction Survey 2011-2015, Northern Ireland Annual Visitor Statistics 2015

164 MARK SCHEMES

165

166 General Certificate of Secondary Education

Statistics

GENERAL MARKING INSTRUCTIONS

167 General Marking Instructions

Introduction The mark scheme normally provides the most popular solution to each question. Other solutions given by candidates are evaluated and credit given as appropriate; these alternative methods are not usually illustrated in the published mark scheme.

The marks awarded for each question are shown in the right hand column and they are prefixed by the letters M, A and MA as appropriate. The key to the mark scheme is given below:

M indicates marks for correct method.

A indicates marks for accurate working, whether in calculation, readings from tables, graphs or answers.

MA indicates marks for combined method and accurate working.

The solution to a question gains marks for correct method and marks for an accurate working based on this method. Where the method is not correct no marks can be given.

A later part of a question may require a candidate to use an answer obtained from an earlier part of the same question. A candidate who gets the wrong answer to the earlier part and goes on to the later part is naturally unaware that the wrong data is being used and is actually undertaking the solution of a parallel problem from the point at which the error occurred. If such a candidate continues to apply correct method, then the candidate’s individual working must be followed through from the error. If no further errors are made, then the candidate is penalised only for the initial error. Solutions containing two or more working or transcription errors are treated in the same way. This process is usually referred to as “follow-through marking” and allows a candidate to gain credit for that part of a solution which follows a working or transcription error.

It should be noted that where an error trivialises a question, or changes the nature of the skills being tested, then as a general rule, it would be the case that not more than half the marks for that question or part of that question would be awarded; in some cases the error may be such that no marks would be awarded.

Positive marking It is our intention to reward candidates for any demonstration of relevant knowledge, skills or understanding. For this reason we adopt a policy of following through their answers, that is, having penalised a candidate for an error, we mark the succeeding parts of the question using the candidate’s value or answers and award marks accordingly.

Some common examples of this occur in the following cases:

(a) a numerical error in one entry in a table of values might lead to several answers being incorrect, but these might not be essentially separate errors;

(b) readings taken from candidates’ inaccurate graphs may not agree with the answers expected but might be consistent with the graphs drawn.

When the candidate misreads a question in such a way as to make the question easier only a proportion of the marks will be available (based on the professional judgement of the examiner). 168 General Certificate of Secondary Education 2018 Statistics

Unit 1

Foundation Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN

MARK SCHEME

169 AVAILABLE 1 (a) Any two suitable reasons, for example: MARKS • People might visit different numbers of times in different weeks • 0 category not needed as the survey is being carried out on people entering the supermarket • The questionnaire doesn’t allow for people to visit more than 8 times per week • 4 times per week is missing • There is an overlap on 6 visits per week • Some boxes include more than one option, but some just have one A2

(b) Primary A1 and Suitable reason, for example: • He is collecting it himself • Secondary data are collected by someone else

(c) Any suitable general or context-specific response, for example: • He is just waiting for people to arrive (at the supermarket) • You just ask the first people you come across • He just asks whoever is available A1

Do not accept answers that are just a repeat of the wording of the question i.e. interviewing customers entering the supermarket 4

2 (a) Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Total 3–set matches 31 16 7 54 4–set matches 17 11 8 36 5–set matches 16 4 1 21 Total 64 31 16 111 A3 3 marks if all six values correct 2 marks if any four values correct 1 mark for any two values correct

(b) (i) 36/111 or 12/37 or 0.324… or equivalent MA1

(ii) 9/111 or 3/37 or 0.081… or equivalent MA1 5

170 AVAILABLE MARKS 3 (a) Sport A1

(b) Fully correct table MA2

Type of programme Percentage of time Comedy 10 Sport 45 Drama 30 Nature 15

Allow MA1 if both Nature and Comedy correct

Bars are correctly drawn but not labelled or correctly labelled but incorrectly drawn MA1

(d) Statement 1: True A1 For example, the Sport bar was bigger on Monday and Tuesday; or Sport was shown for 30% of the time, whereas on Monday it was 40% and Tuesday was 45%; or equivalent. A1 (f.t. their answer to part b)

Statement 2: False A1 For example, on Monday comedy was shown for 20% of the time but drama was only shown for 15% of the time. A1 (f.t. their answer to part b) 9

4 (a) Comment about daily use, for example, the number of adults using the internet daily or almost every day has (continually) risen during the period 2006–2016 A1

Comment about no use, for example, the number of adults who do not use the internet has (continually) fallen during the period 2006–2016 A1

(b) No A1

Any sensible reason for no, for example: • The graph does not include children. • The graph does not include those who use the internet more often than once in 3 months but less than daily. or other valid reason A1

171 AVAILABLE MARKS (c) Any sensible variable, for example: • Age of the child using the internet. • Number of minutes per day spent online. • How they access the internet (mobile phone, tablet, laptop, etc.) A1 5

5 (a) (i) Choropleth map circled or indicated A1

(ii) Any suitable reason, for example: • There are 30 squares so if it was not grouped the diagram might need 30 different colours • It helps to show patterns on the diagram A1

(iii) 11 A1

(b) Allow any of 3E, 3F, 4F A1

There are more people infected there and you would expect this nearer to the first instance of the infection A1 5

6 (a) There are three values for 14 minutes (so these students might A1 have travelled to school together) (or equivalent)

(b) 0 3 6 8 9 1 1 3 4 4 4 5 7 9 2 0 1 5 7 8 9 3 9 4 5 5

MA1 for correct stem MA1 MA2 for correct leaves (MA1 if one error or omission, or if MA2 unordered) A1 A1 Suitable and correct key

(ii) Median (15+17)/2 – may not be seen or may be implied by 15 M1 and 17 circled or crossing out of values from each end on stem and leaf diagram

Median 16 A1

172 AVAILABLE (d) Both no and simple reason referring to stem and leaf diagram, MARKS for example: • No, the data are clustered at the lower end • No, there is a tail at the top end • No, apart from the 55 it is fairly symmetrical A1

(e) (i) Median – ticks or indicates stay the same A1

(ii) Mean – ticks or indicates decrease A1 11

7 (a) At least one correct use of five-bar gate for tallies M1

MA2 for all frequencies correct 8, 12, 8 in frequency column MA2 MA1 for one error or omission

(b) (i) Ticks Statement 2: Great Britain & Northern Ireland won approximately the same number of gold medals as China A1

(ii) Statement 1: The graph only shows the top 5 gold medal winners, so one third of this graph does not represent one third of all gold medals (or similar valid reason) A1

Statement 3: The graph only shows gold medals. Russia might have won more silver and/or bronze medals. (or similar valid reason) A1

(c) Any valid reason, for example: • There might be a large number of very small sectors, for example lots of countries might have won one or two gold medals • There might be some countries who do not win any gold medals A1 7

8 (a) (i) Median – any value in the range 31 – 33 minutes A1

(ii) Reads off from values from 10 and 30 on the vertical axis M1 – may be shown on the graph

Subtracts their two values to obtain an answer in the range MA1 20 – 24 minutes

(b) Completely correct boxplot, ft values from part (a) MA2

Allow one error in plotting median, quartile or highest/lowest value for MA1

173 (c) Any two distinct correct comparisons in context, for example: AVAILABLE • On average Aoife takes longer to do her homework (as her median MARKS is larger) • Aoife is more consistent in the times taken to complete her homework (as her interquartile range is smaller) • Noah had the longest/shortest times taken to complete a statistics homework A1 A1 7

9 (a) No sampling frame (or equivalent), for example, there is no list of the population A1

(b) Advantage, for example: • Quick and easy • Likely to get quite a lot of visitors A1

Disadvantage, for example: • They would not all be visitors • Possible bias (e.g. no working people) • Not representative of all visitor types A1

(c) Method B A1 Suitable reason, for example: • Visitors may not know how far they have travelled • Visitors are more likely to be accurate about where they came from A1

(d) One of quantitative and continuous circled A1 Both circled with no extras A1 7

10 (a) 10 A1

(b) (2×8) + (5×12) + (10×14) + (20×11) + (25×4) + (50×1) = 586 M1 586 ÷ 50 = £11.72 ` MA1 May be done by calculator with no working seen

(d) 10 MA1 6

11 (a) 3000/22100 seen (can be implied by correct decimal answer) MA1 0.14 A1

(b) (i) S: (10 year old) girls who live in Belfast (in 2011) A1 T: (10 year old) girls in Northern Ireland who do not live in Belfast (in 2011) A1

174 AVAILABLE MARKS (ii) 1500 (overlap) and 10 year old boys Lives in Belfast 9800 A1

9800 1500 1500 1500 (right hand section) and 9300 A1 6

9300

12 (a) (38, 9.5) plotted A1 (24, 8.25) plotted A1

(b) (i) -0.538 (by calculator, anything which rounds to -0.5) MA2 (ii) Negative circled A1

(d) Sample may not be representative (e.g. sample size small) A1 Without the outlier, correlation is positive (or there is hardly any correlation) A1 or The correlation is not very strong (even with the outlier) 8 (A1A1 for any two correct)

Total marks 80

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176 General Certificate of Secondary Education 2018 Statistics

Unit 1

Higher Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN

MARK SCHEME

177 AVAILABLE 1 (a) 5 MA1 MARKS

(b) Number of child symbols between 26 and 27 (may not be written down) M1 10 A1

(c) An appropriate comment, for example: • Each symbol stands for a different number of things • There is no key • It does not say what the symbols stand for A1 4

2 (a) No sampling frame (or equivalent) A1 For example, there is no list of the population

(b) Advantage, for example: • Quick and easy • Likely to get quite a lot of visitors A1

Disadvantage, for example: • They would not all be visitors • Possible bias (e.g. no working people) • Not representative of all visitor types A1

(ii) Method B A1 Suitable reason, for example: • Visitors may not know how far they have travelled • Visitors are more likely to be accurate about where they came from A1

(d) Correct explanation, for example: One of: • It is a leading question • It will lead to biased answers • It will encourage people to say “yes” A1 8

178 AVAILABLE 3 (a) Target line labelled A1 MARKS Lower warning line labelled A1

(b) Needs to be checked because 8 consecutive points are on the same side of the target line. MA1

2 24 384.5 492.9 Standard deviation = −=8.9459 M1 10 10 2.99 A1

(ii) Mean will increase MA1

Standard deviation will decrease MA1 8

4 (a) Cumulative frequencies: 8, 20, 34, 45, 49, 50 (last three may not be seen) M1 Median donation = £10 A1

(b) (2×8)+(5×12)+(10×14)+(20×11)+(25×4)+(50×1)=586 M1 586 ÷ 50 = £11.72 MA1 May be done by calculator with no working seen

(d) 10 MA1 7

179 AVAILABLE MARKS 5 (a) Read off value which rounds to 400 to 1 sf (may not include thousands) M1 400 + 400 M1 800 000 (final answer must include thousands) A1

(b) They were age 14 in 1961 MA1 The spike is smaller in 2016 MA1

(d) There are fewer males than females aged over 60. MA1 Bars shorter for males A1 8

6 (a) (38, 9.5) plotted A1 (24, 8.25) plotted A1

(b) -0.538 (by calculator, anything which rounds to -0.5) MA2

(d) Sample may not be representative (e.g. sample size small) A1 Without the outlier, correlation is positive (or there is hardly any correlation) A1 or (The correlation is not very strong (even with the outlier)) (A1A1 for any two correct) 7

7 (a) 71, 131, 59, 105 MA1 for two correct or MA2 for all correct

(b) 71 M1 202 35% A1

Probability of woman winner = 59 M1 130 45% A1 7

180 AVAILABLE MARKS 8 (a) Lowest value = 0 MA1 LQ=8 (±1) MA1 Median = 17 (±1) MA1 UQ = 32 (±1) MA1 Max at a value between 80 and 105 MA1

(b) One correct comment MA1 Second correct, different comment For example: • On average, males in NI are older than in Burkina Faso • The spread of ages in NI is higher than in Burkina Faso • The data for NI are not noticeably skewed but they are for Burkina Faso • The median for NI is above the upper quartile for Burkina Faso MA1

(d) (i) IQR = 32 – 8 = 24 M1 1.5 × 24 = 36 32 + 36 = 68 M1 There are males older than 68 in Burkina Faso A1

(ii) 8 – 36 is negative MA1

(e) (i) Valid advantage, for example • Easier to find median • Easier to plot points • Easier to find percentiles A1

181 AVAILABLE (ii) Valid advantage, for example: MARKS • Allows total number of males to be found • Does not lose information A1

(f) Points are plotted at upper boundary A1 Upper boundary for 0-4 group is 5 since it includes people just short of their 5th birthday (or equivalent) A1 17

9 (a) (i) (224 + 217.67 + 74.56 + 62.94) ÷ 4 M1 £144.79 A1 (217.67 + 74.56 + 62.94 + 242.02) ÷ 4 M1 £149.30 A1

(ii) Each of values from (a) plotted in correct place MA1 MA1

(b) Trend line drawn (by eye) using moving averages MA1

(d) Correct reason, for example: MA1 Four quarters in the year (and there is a yearly pattern to the bills) or There is a repeating pattern every four bills

(e) 85 or 85 ˗ 54 M1 54 54 1.574… or 0.574… M1 57.4% or 57% (need not be rounded) A1

(f) Gas price index shows that price of gas has gone up by over 50% MA1 So bill would increase by about 50% for same amount of gas MA1 14

10 (a) (i) 60 MA1 740 MA1 Allow (±2) for each

(ii) Midpoints (at least two correct): M1 122.5, 127.5, 132.5, 137.5, 142.5, 21400 for sum M1 (may not be seen if done by calculator) 132.4 A1 (need not be rounded – allow 132 or anything which rounds to 132.4)

182 AVAILABLE (iii) Correct reason, for example: MARKS • Actual values are not known • Midpoints have been used A1

(b) Symmetrical and bell shaped A1

(d) (i) 158 ˗ 132.4 M1 4.3 5.95… A1

(ii) A Z-score this high is very unusual A1 (or would not expect Z-score more than 3) 12

11 (a) MA5 for all correct or MA4 for 5 correct or MA3 for 4 correct or MA2 for 3 correct or MA1 for 1 or 2 correct

(b) 7 of Biology students take Chemistry M1 16

7 of 3200 M1 16 1400 A1 8

Total marks 100

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184 General Certificate of Secondary Education 2019 Statistics

Unit 2

Foundation Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN

MARK SCHEME

185 AVAILABLE 1 (a) Lagan Valley Regional Park MARKS Wallace Park A1 The Peace Bridge Giant’s Causeway A1 Titanic Belfast Crawfordsburn Country Park A1

Attractions must be listed in descending order of visitors as above.

Deduct one mark if not in descending order.

Award one mark for three correct answers in descending order.

(b) Giant’s Causeway and Titanic Belfast A1 or Titanic Belfast and Giant’s Causeway

(ii) 1286 thousand A1 6

2 (a) (i) 851 + 622 + 465 + 381 + 372 + 354 + 313 + 247 + 221 + 185 = 4011 (000) or 4011 (thousands) MA1

(ii) Statement indicating that the totals have increased each year A1

(b) Yes; Statement indicating that 524(000) < 533(000) A1 MA1 or Yes; In 2012 visitors less than 2011 visitors

(c) (i) Any three of the following values/places: • 754 Giant’s causeway • 665 Titanic Belfast • 595 Ulster Museum • 328 W5 • 411 Derry’s Walls • 269 The Guildhall • 185 Mount Stewart • 276 Carrick-a-Rede A1 A1 A1

(ii) A response that indicates that these values were much higher than the year before (rogue values) M1 8

3 (a) 0.35 (1 - 0.65) or 35% (100% - 65% = 35%) MA1

(b) (i) 0.35 × 3458000 = 1210300 M1 A1

186 AVAILABLE MARKS (ii) Table notes say ‘Sample size too small to provide a reliable estimate’ A1 or The table says ‘Estimated proportion’ 4

4 (a) (i) The tourist industry A1 To help them make improvements A1

(ii) The general public A1 To inform them about popular attractions or encourage visits A1

(b) To provide up to date information about local tourism A1

5 (a) For example, the median value would not be influenced by a few very high admission charges A1

(b) (i) For example: • In 2015 Max Adult £15.50 Max Child £8.50 A1 • In 2011 Min Adult £2.00 Min Child £1.50 A1

(ii) Yes; In 2015 Min Adult and Min Child are both £1.00 A1

6 (a) Discrete indicated A1

(b) (i) 7510000 + 709000 = 8219000 MA1 (8219000/17481000) × 100 = 47% MA1

(ii) No, as 47%<53% or 47% less than half of all or 100% or No, 8219000 less than 9262000 or less than half of 17481000 A1 MA1 5

187 7 (a) The values in the table have been rounded A1 AVAILABLE MARKS (b) An indication that the pie chart will be drawn with the percentage of one of the categories reduced by one percentage point (total 100%) for example, with Ticket or group bookings reduced from 29% to 28% as shown below MA1

Correct angle calculations (total 360º) MA1 (Angles: 28% - 101º, 23% - 83º, 24% - 86º, 17% - 61º, 6% -22º, 2% - 7º) MA1 Correct chart and labels A1 A1 6

8 (a) 7 A1

(b) Cappuccino A1

(d) 10 − 4 = 6 A1 4

9 (a) A rogue value or A value that is different when compared with the other values A1

(b) 27 MA1

(d) Calculation of the median and mode MA1 MA1 5

10 (a) Tom could record the number of hours of sunshine on a suitable data collection sheet A1

(b) Tom could use weather reports accessed through the internet or equivalent A1

11 (a) (i) For example: Dual bar chart A1

(ii) To compare the number of return visits with the number of initial visits A1

188 (b) (i) The following two responses, or suitable alternative: AVAILABLE • Surveying pupils in every year group in the school MARKS • Surveying the same number of pupils from each year group • Equal mix of males and females (if appropriate) A1 A1

(ii) Alison’s School A1 5

12 (a) (i) Any two correct answers, for example: • Leading question • Closed Question • Retired covers a large range of ages MA1 MA1

(ii) Inclusion of age ranges MA1 Use a scale of likelihood (very unlikely to very likely) MA1

(b) May be no correlation present MA1 Relationship may be non-linear MA1 6

13 (a) People may not remember this information A1

(b) The frequency polygon will show the overall trend A1 2

14 (a) Open response Hypothesis A1 A hypothesis to be tested which refers to distance, decision, attraction, for example, distance from an attraction affects the decision to visit the attraction Data Collection A1 An appropriate outline for collecting data A1 For example, survey/interview visitors at an attraction or using a list of attractions visited, use ‘google maps’ to find out distances travelled Sample A2 For example, convenient sampling because of time systematic sampling to avoid bias Overcoming possible problem A2 For example, distance given may be approximate, find out where people have travelled from and use Google maps for more accurate distances or other appropriate response

(b) Frequency diagram A1 (Histogram with equal class widths) Continuous variable A1 Mean distance travelled A1 Mean summaries information and gives typical value A1

189 AVAILABLE (c) Mean distance travelled for a return visit A1 MARKS Mean distance calculation summaries data A1

Calculate a difference or percentage difference A1 for example to compare mean distance travelled for a return visit with mean distance travelled for first visit or all visits A difference or percentage difference calculation compares data sets A1 15

Total marks 80

190 General Certificate of Secondary Education 2019 Statistics

Unit 2

Higher Tier

[CODE] SPECIMEN

MARK SCHEME

191 1 (a) 851+622+465+381+372+354+313+247+221+185 AVAILABLE = 4011(000) or 4011 (thousands) MA1 MARKS

(b) Yes A1 Statement indicating that the totals have increased each year MA1

(d) Closed for refurbishment A1

(e) Line graph / bar chart M1 To show rising trend in visitor numbers A1 8

2 (a) Tourist industry M1 To help them make improvements A1 The general public M1 To inform them about popular attractions or encourage visits A1

(b) To ensure information is up-to-date A1

3 (a) Discrete MA1

(b) Continuous MA1 2

4 (a) A rogue value or a value that compared with the other values is different A1

(b) 27 MA1

(d) Calculation of the median and mode MA1 MA1 5

5 (a) 4 MA1

(b) Median = 3 MA1

(d) None MA1 4

192 6 (a) (i) Any two correct answers: AVAILABLE • Leading question MA1 MARKS • Closed question • ‘Retired’ covers a large range of ages MA1

(ii) Inclusion of age ranges MA1 Use a scale for likelihood (very unlikely to very likely) MA1

(b) May be no correlation present MA1 Relationship may be non-linear MA1 6

7 (a) LQ = 12 MA1 Med = 21 MA1 UQ = 29 MA1

(b) 7 / 32 plotted MA1 12 / 21 / 29 plotted MA1 Correct lines drawn A1

8 (a) Very small sample MA1 Only Monday customers surveyed / not random MA1

(b) 0.44 × 3.5 M1 + 0.56 × 2.7 MA1 3.052 A1 5

9 (a) Twice as many MA1

(b) No. N.I average nights = 4.8/2.2 = 2.18 nights MA1 External visitor nights = 10.7/2.3 = 4.65 nights MA1

(d) Must use public transport/taxis, buy all their food etc MA1 6 100 12 = N 20 10 (a) M1 A1

12N = 2000 MA1

N = 167 A1

(b) Population may not be constant (birth/death) M1 5

193 11 (a) 595/471 = 126.3 M1 A1 AVAILABLE 466/416 = 112.0 MA1 MARKS

(b) 12% increase MA1 on 2013 MA1 5

12 (a) Open response Hypothesis A1 A hypothesis to be tested which refers to distance, decision, attraction For example, distance from an attraction affects the decision to visit the attraction Data Collection A1 An appropriate outline for collecting data A1 For example, survey/interview visitors at an attraction or using a list of attractions visited, use ‘google maps’ to find out distances travelled Sample A2 For example, convenient sampling because of time systematic sampling to avoid bias Overcoming possible problem A2 For example, distance given may be approximate, find out where people have travelled from and use Google maps for more accurate distances or other appropriate response.

(b) Frequency diagram A1 (Histogram with equal class widths) Continuous variable A1 Mean distance travelled A1 Mean summaries information and gives typical value A1

13 (a) 112 × 350 M1 £39,200 A1

(b) 112/4480 M1 0.025 A1 0.025 × 6580 = 164.5 (165) M1 A1 164.5 × 370 = £60865 MA1 7

194 14 (a) (i) Less time consuming M1 AVAILABLE MARKS (ii) A list of employees’ names M1

(b) (i) Total = 1500 MA1 353 n = 1500 160 M1 MA1 n = 41 A1

(ii) Highly likely to get untruthful responses M1

(iii) 104 – 80 = 24 MA1 24/80 MA1 30% A1 10

15 (a) Mean = ½(10 + 82) MA1 Mean = 46 A1 6 SD = 72 MA1 SD = 12 A1

(b) Standardised score corresponds to number of standard deviations of the raw score above or below mean A1

(d) Higher standardised score in French or Relatively better score in French MA1

(e) Scores are normally distributed M1 9

Total marks 100

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