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Baltic Market Report Q1 2011

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Baltic Market Report Q1 2011 Baltic Market Report Q1 2011 The overheating of the markets and regression afterwards were 27.04.2011 unpredictably sharp all over Europe, also in Baltic countries because of their opened economies. Property market is now Contents facing again the uptrend, the increase is moderate. Summary 1 The biggest changes took place in residential market, where the Macro Economic Trends 2 recovering process will take years. Apartments, which were on Legal Framework 3 offer during the regression period, have found the new owners Office Market 5 and new development projects have been started. Retail Market 12 Industrial Market 20 Office market is mainly active in the capitals. Rental levels are Investment Market 24 Hotel Market 27 expected to increase in top level buildings, as the vacancy there Residential Market 31 is soon facing its critical level. Still, developers are very Contacts 39 precautious towards new developments. Most attractive investment objects are in retail segment, the interest is also towards objects in smaller cities. Value can be added through expansion and also by increasing rental income, which are still rather low. Industrial and warehouse sector is also getting more active, Author although there are still vacant objects on the offer from the crises period. New objects are mostly developed for own use. Merilin Piik Senior consultant, valuer The investment activity is clearly increasing. In the beginning of DTZ Baltic 2011 there have been two transactions in value over 100 million +372 62 64 250 [email protected] EUR in Estonia, the interest towards other Baltic countries increases also. Contacts Table 1 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Marianne Trubetskoi Population (in thousands) 1340 2248 3329 Senior consultant, valuer Urban population 69% 66% 67% DTZ Baltic +372 62 64 250 Area (thousand km²) 45 65 65 [email protected] Population density (2008, per km²) 31 36 54 Capital city Tallinn Riga Vilnius Kristina Kondratovica Valuer Population in capital cities (thousand) 394 706 543 DTZ Baltic Currency EUR LVL LTL +371 6724 4811 Exchange rate (EUR) x 0,7028 3,4528 [email protected] GDP at current prices (bn EUR, 2010) 14,5 18,1 27,4 Jurgita Banyte GDP per capita, at current prices (EUR, 2010) 10821 8052 8231 Senior consultant, valuer Inflation rate (%, 2010) 3,0 2,5 1,2 DTZ Baltic Unemployment rate (%, 2010) 12,3 18,7 14,4 +370 5210 0252 [email protected] www.dtz.com 1 Macro Economic Trends gains are still weak, especially in the public sector, and Macro Economic adjustment should continue. Unemployment reached its peak by the beginning of Trends 2010 at 20,4% and started to diminish gradually General Trends afterwards, first due to emigration and rising inactivity, and in the beginning of 2011 also due to slow job creation. However, unemployment rate will remain high Recession in Baltic countries is over and although the for years to come. Further developments will depend on recovery has been uneven across different economic productivity growth. sectors, turnaround is evident. In 2010, the biggest contributor to growth was the recovering export sector. Stabilisation in household consumption, driven by Lithuania stronger consumer confidence and more positive outlook towards future, supported the overall economic activity. After the dramatic annual contraction of GDP by 14,7% in 2009, the year 2010 showed a somewhat more positive Estonia result. In 2010 GDP increased by 1,3%. The Lithuanian Ministry of Finance forecasts 1,6% and 2,8% economic growth in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Positive growth of The economical situation in Estonia has mainly improved economy in 2011 will be mostly driven by recovering by support of export. Joining the Euro zone in the export. beginning of 2011 has raised Estonian reliability in the eyes of foreign investors and in international scene as During the first two months of 2011, the inflation whole. increased. According to the forecast by Ministry of Finance of Lithuania, the average annual harmonized If in 2009 GDP decreased by 13,9%, then in 2010 it index of consumer prices should be slightly positive increased by 3,1%. Based on the prognoses of Estonian (1,2%) in 2010 and climb to 3,3% in 2011. For Bank (from the end of 2010) the growth of GDP will be comparison, Bank of Lithuania expects 1,2% and 2,8% 4,2% in 2011 and 3,8% in 2012. The prognoses of CPI change in 2010 and 2011. In 2010, economic growth Ministry of Finance are in the same scale. continued and inflation was low. CPI was in 2009 –0,1%, in 2010 3,0%. The fast inflation Despite the quite positive expectations in economic is mainly caused by fast increase of prices in food and growth, the situation in the labour market remains tense. fuel sector. Because of opened economy, the Estonia is The Lithuanian Labour Exchange’s data shows that very opened towards changes in global market. Based on average annual unemployment rate of working-age the prognoses of the Ministry of Finance the CPI will be population in 2010 was 14,4%. This is almost 2,5 times 4,5% in 2011. The quick increase should stabilize in 2011 higher than average annual unemployment rate in 2008 and cause lower inflation in 2012. (5,8 percent). Unemployment increased in all areas. On st the 1 of March 2011, there were 306,4 thousand Based on the info from Estonian Unemployment registered unemployed, which is 14,2 % of the country's Insurance Fund, the average unemployment in 2010 was working age population. The average annual 79 679 people, which is 12,3% of working-age population. unemployment level is assumed to stand at 14,9% in In February 2011 the rate was 10,2%. The 2011, and should be followed by a mild drop to 11,5% in unemployment has decreased by 30,3% compared to the 2012. The more positive changes are expected in 2013- maximum rate in March 2010. 2014, when according to the forecast by Ministry of Finance of Lithuania, the unemployment level will fall to Latvia 9,3% and 7,8%, respectively. Recovery in 2010 was stronger than expected both due to quick private sector adjustment and better growth in export markets. GDP quarterly growth continued also in the fourth quarter of 2010. A stronger rebound is expected in 2011, with GDP growing by about 4,0%, supported by recovering domestic demand. Stronger export and restocking will stimulate investments and, thus, import in 2011. Activity www.dtz.com 2 Macro Economic Trends Figure 1 Real growth rate of GDP in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania Figure 3 % Unemployment rate in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania 15,0 % 10,0 20 5,0 0,0 15 -5,0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* -10,0 10 -15,0 5 -20,0 Estonia Latvia Lithuania 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia, Statistics Latvia, Statistics Lithuania, Lithuanian Ministry of Finance Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Eurostat Figure 2 Growth rate of CPI in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania % 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* -5,0 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia, Statistics Latvia, Statistics Lithuania, Lithuanian Ministry of Finance Principles of the Civil Code Act and Commercial Code. Legal Framework Hardly had the national law been created, was Estonia in situation where it was necessary to bring the regulations into line with EU requirements. The transposition of the EU Aquis Communautaire started. Estonia Estonian Government started also developing the information society, where the priority was evolvement of Land reform started in November 1991, with the digital state registers that could make different objective to transform relations based on state administrative procedures easier and more timesaving ownership of land into relations primarily based on for private entities and public institutions. For private ownership of land. The Western European style transforming the economy more attractive for foreign system of Land Register was introduced and enforced investments, clear and advantageous tax-system was with a great success. During the years 1993- 1995, the also established. main legislative acts regulating the real estate transactions were evolved: Law of Property Act, General www.dtz.com 3 Legal Framework In Estonia information related to all real estate is system in Lithuania has contributed to the protection of registered in a land register kept by County Court real ownership, legal occupancy and investments. estate registration departments. Land registers show for The real estate market in Lithuania is regulated following each property the owner, mortgages, servitudes and the generally accepted principles of ownership immunity other information registered in the relevant portion of the and protection of rights of a just acquirer (possessor). In registry. Land register data is public and any interested addition, the principles of equal treatment and equal party may have the information. protection are the main principles of the investment law, meaning that both Lithuanian and foreign investors are subject to equal business conditions, and their rights and Latvia lawful interests are equally protected by law. Transactions with real estate are regulated by Civil Code, The Real Property Register contains all actual which along with Land Register law dated from 1937, information of buildings and land plots, rights to real were approved by Latvian parliament in 1993. estate and encumbrances thereof. One can receive information from the Real Property Register on changes In Latvia there is a trustworthy and effective real estate in real estate, mortgages on buildings or land plots registration system that is comparable with systems in including pledges of land lease rights, imposed Western Europe (Land Book registry).
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