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Modeling and Simulation of Energy Systems: a Review

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Modeling and Simulation of Energy Systems: a Review processes Review Modeling and Simulation of Energy Systems: A Review Avinash Shankar Rammohan Subramanian 1, Truls Gundersen 1 and Thomas Alan Adams II 2,* 1 Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Kolbjørn Hejes vei 1B, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway; [email protected] (A.S.R.S.); [email protected] (T.G.) 2 Department of Chemical Engineering, McMaster University, 1280 Main St. W, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-905-525-9140 (ext. 24782) Received: 12 October 2018; Accepted: 18 November 2018; Published: 23 November 2018 Abstract: Energy is a key driver of the modern economy, therefore modeling and simulation of energy systems has received significant research attention. We review the major developments in this area and propose two ways to categorize the diverse contributions. The first categorization is according to the modeling approach, namely into computational, mathematical, and physical models. With this categorization, we highlight certain novel hybrid approaches that combine aspects of the different groups proposed. The second categorization is according to field namely Process Systems Engineering (PSE) and Energy Economics (EE). We use the following criteria to illustrate the differences: the nature of variables, theoretical underpinnings, level of technological aggregation, spatial and temporal scales, and model purposes. Traditionally, the Process Systems Engineering approach models the technological characteristics of the energy system endogenously. However, the energy system is situated in a broader economic context that includes several stakeholders both within the energy sector and in other economic sectors. Complex relationships and feedback effects exist between these stakeholders, which may have a significant impact on strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making. Leveraging the expertise built in the Energy Economics field on modeling these complexities may be valuable to process systems engineers. With this categorization, we present the interactions between the two fields, and make the case for combining the two approaches. We point out three application areas: (1) optimal design and operation of flexible processes using demand and price forecasts, (2) sustainability analysis and process design using hybrid methods, and (3) accounting for the feedback effects of breakthrough technologies. These three examples highlight the value of combining Process Systems Engineering and Energy Economics models to get a holistic picture of the energy system in a wider economic and policy context. Keywords: energy systems; modeling and simulation; multi-scale systems engineering; sustainable process design; energy economics; top-down models; hybrid Life Cycle Assessment 1. Introduction Energy is one primary driver of the modern economy that involves several stakeholders such as energy production and distribution firms, energy investors, end users, as well as government regulators. Population growth and improving standards of living, especially in developing countries, are expected to significantly increase energy consumption. The IEA predicts an increase in total primary energy demand (TPED) from 13.8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) in 2016 to 19.3 billion toe under its “current policies” scenario in 2040 [1]. Alternatively, in the “sustainable development” scenario where policies are enacted in order to achieve the objectives of the COP 21 Paris agreement Processes 2018, 6, 238; doi:10.3390/pr6120238 www.mdpi.com/journal/processes Processes 2018, 6, 238 2 of 45 (2015)Processes together 2018, 6, withx FOR PEER universal REVIEW access to energy services and a large reduction in energy-related2 of 45 pollution, TPED grows to 14.1 billion toe in 2040. In this period, CO2 emissions would increase from(2015) 32.1 billiontogether tonnes with universal to 42.7 billion access tonnesto energy under services the current and a large policies reduction scenario in orenergy would-related have to pollution, TPED grows to 14.1 billion toe in 2040. In this period, CO2 emissions would increase from decrease to 18.3 billion tonnes in the sustainable development scenario. Transitioning to a sustainable 32.1 billion tonnes to 42.7 billion tonnes under the current policies scenario or would have to decrease energy future through the accelerated adoption of clean energy technologies and energy efficiency to 18.3 billion tonnes in the sustainable development scenario. Transitioning to a sustainable energy practicesfuturerequires through the accelerated engagement ado ofption various of clean decision energy makers technologies from the and scientific, energy efficiency financial, practices industrial, andrequires public-policy the engagement communities of various with decision an interdisciplinary makers from the approach scientific, that financial, combines industrial engineering,, and economics,public-policy and environmentalcommunities perspectiveswith an interdisciplinary [2]. approach that combines engineering, ecAnonomics energy, and system environmental is defined perspectives by the Intergovernmental [2]. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth AssessmentAn energy Reportsystem asis defined a “system by the [that] Intergovernmental comprises all Panel components on Climate related Change to the(IPCC production,) in its conversion,fifth Assessment delivery, Report and use as ofa “system energy” [that] [3]. Figurecomprises1 shows all components the different related components to the production, of an energy system.conversion, First, primarydelivery, energyand use stored of energy” in natural [3]. Figure resources 1 shows (such the diffe as fossilrent components fuels, uranium, of an renewableenergy resources)system. isFir harvestedst, primary and energy transported stored in tonatural the conversion resources ( site(s)such as in fossil which fuels, a wide uranium, range renewable of processes (suchresources as combustion,) is harvested refining, and transported bioconversion, to the etc.) conversion may take site place(s) in to which transform a wide energy range of to processes more usable forms(such such as combustion, as electricity refining, and liquid bioconversion fuels. This, etc. conversion) may take processplace to transform may integrate energy with to more local usable utilities suchforms as the such water as electricity distribution and network. liquid fuels. The This usable conversion energy is process then transported may integrate and with distributed local utilities through such as the water distribution network. The usable energy is then transported and distributed a potentially large number of infrastructure components to the final user. Final energy demand can through a potentially large number of infrastructure components to the final user. Final energy be disaggregated into homogeneous categories of users such as transportation, residential, industrial, demand can be disaggregated into homogeneous categories of users such as transportation, andresidential, commercial industrial users. However,, and commercial the energy users production,. However, conversion, the energy transportation, production, and conversion distribution, stepstransportation combined typically, and distribution also consume steps combined the largest typically amount also consume of energy the as largest a result amount of generally of energy low efficienciesas a result [4 ].of generally low efficiencies [4]. FigureFigure 1. 1.Energy Energy system showing showing the the flow flow of energy of energy from primary from primary energy supply energy to supply final energy to final energyconsumption. consumption. Processes 2018, 6, 238 3 of 45 Processes 2018, 6, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 45 TradeTrade between suppliers suppliers and and consumers consumers occurs occurs in inenergy energy markets markets with with the primary the primary energy energy price pricedepending depending on a onlarge a large number number of factors of factors such such as assupply supply an andd demand demand quantities, quantities, geopolitics andand internationalinternational tradetrade policies,policies, interactioninteraction withwith otherother economiceconomic sectors,sectors, technologicaltechnological changes,changes, andand eveneven naturalnatural disasters. Figure Figure 2 presents a a comparison comparison of of the the normalized normalized prices prices (in (in $/GJ) $/GJ) of natural of natural gas, gas, oil, oil,and and coal coal fuels fuels in the in theUnited United States States in order in order to illustrate to illustrate the thecomplex complex interdependencies interdependencies between between the theenergy energy sector sector and and other other sectors. sectors. For For example, example, historically historically speaking, speaking, gas gas and and oil oil have followedfollowed approximatelyapproximately thethe samesame priceprice trendstrends whenwhen expressedexpressed onon aa normalizednormalized per-energyper-energy basisbasis upup untiluntil thethe shaleshale gasgas boom,boom, whichwhich causedcaused anan unprecedentedunprecedented andand sustainedsustained decouplingdecoupling ofof oiloil andand gasgas pricesprices thatthat hashas persistedpersisted forfor thethe pastpast decade.decade. OtherOther recognizablerecognizable eventsevents withinwithin thethe pastpast generationgeneration includeinclude thethe gulfgulf warwar ofof 1990,1990, andand thethe energyenergy crisiscrisis andand subsequentsubsequent GreatGreat RecessionRecession
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